How to Hack Fantasy Football Drafts

[@Flockfantasy]

Join our next draft here : (code FLOCK for 50% match up to $250, & my rankings + draft guide) play.underdogfantasy.com/p-fantasy-flock-network

[@Remilazerus44]

Do you put these videos on Spotify? If not. Would you consider doing it?

[@84bandit21]

The quality of fantasy football analysis and content you put out on an almost daily basis is crazy. There's just no other fantasy football youtube channel out there doing what you do. First got into fantasy football about 6 years ago in a redraft league with friends. Got absolutely crushed the first two years before I found your channel. Have watched just about every video you've put out since. Haven't been in the loser bracket since and won my first championship last year. Doesn't seem like that's a coincidence, so thank you sir! Ha.

[@coltonjohnson1250]

Appreciate the time you put into getting us this data. Best fantasy football content out there. Your videos have helped me go 24-4 over the past 2 seasons in my redraft league.

[@Flockfantasy]

Damn congrats my guy !

[@coltonjohnson1250]

@@Flockfantasywhat strategy would you recommend for drafting from 9 in a full ppr 10 man league?

[@Thiiink]

@@coltonjohnson1250 mickey mouse league

[@mrsaltypnutz]

@@coltonjohnson1250I’m also at 9, it’s a tough spot. I’m leaning towards Wr puka/aj (if everyone drafts according to consensus) I’d double down on WR in the second round unless somehow bijan Bryce Taylor gibs are available Then it’s only wr/te/qb till around round 7-8 I’d love to hear what ppl think of this strategy

[@coltonjohnson1250]

⁠@@mrsaltypnutz I like that strategy. I’m aiming to go Gibbs at 9 followed by one of the receivers. Hopefully nico or achane in the third. Definitely prioritizing an elite tight end and qb. The McBride Kyler stack could be what i go with given Kyler’s ADP.

[@miguelito0716]

Very useful data, I like how you took into account many of the comments and other insights that people had on the past few videos. Going to be drafting a lot of Tee, Flowers and coleman in my redraft league

[@Flockfantasy]

Trying my best!

[@dannycragel9686]

Top notch Mason

[@landend7623]

Thanks for all of the hard work man! I can’t wait for the season to get started

[@Flockfantasy]

Neither can I! Getting ready to really ramp up now

[@landend7623]

@@Flockfantasy Yessir! Watching your videos always gets me so fired up for the season

[@skolvikings5445]

This has to be one of the most thorough videos about team projections I’ve ever watched. Though, I play dynasty more than redraft, this was very impressive to see to the lines Vegas holds for certain teams. Thank you for the amount of time and effort put into making this. Not sure who the people arguing with you were but, clearly based off of a decade of data they are completely incorrect on their assessment’s lol

[@angelfontanez9148]

You may still be looking at it wrong. It's not the they aren't 50-50, it is the margin of victory that matters for Fantasy. In your example of Dallas -7 v Carolina, all you can take from the analysis you make is that one time Dallas will prevail and one time Carolina will prevail ATS. But, and here is the big but, for fantasy purposes Carolina losing 27-21 (Car covers) and then losing 42-7 (Dal covers) still qualify for your 50-50 proposition that Vegas is almost always right but in the actual numbers Vegas would've been way off on one of them. Having said that, I still think that you are knocking on the door of a real breakthrough with your thinking. Just have to tighten the pen a little more. Great content!!

[@glimpse5038]

Glad I didn't have my draft yet because this gives me a lot of insight. It's my first year in fantasy and I'm trying to win immediately. Great video.

[@strategec6184]

Outstanding work here!! This is an amazing amount of information here you analyzed and gave us. Keep up the great work Mason!!👏🏽

[@Crone2shifty]

I love your work bro thank you. I got my draft this tuesda and you have helped me prep so much and bring home that chip last year! thank you

[@chillchannel2399]

Genius! Mason, this might be the single most important thing ever released to help fantasy football players. Adjusting my drafts moving forward. Looking forward to this info every year (I hope you make this an annual release).

[@mikeblair3769]

Flock....Appreciate the work my man.. Seems to me great info, concise and that last chart invaluable. Well done.

[@DrPondsPizza]

Love this data. Makes a lot of sense for people drafting 100+ teams and getting a wide exposure to basically everyone. For those drafting only 4 or 5 teams taking a chance on big hitters is more rewarding and dodging bullets can be a huge difference. Would love to see a more in depth analysis of teams you think could really explode past projections. Overall really good stuff thank you for this.

[@kennethjones3244]

Thanks for taking the time to make us more informed fantasy players. This knowledge is not only for this season. It will be useful going forward as well.

[@MichaelBronte]

Mason, this is among the most unique and intelligent content out there. Well done!

[@Day1Lonzo]

I am in a weekly pick suicide pool as well as my bestball lineups, and this data helps tremendously. Was just thinking the other day about historical win totals data and you read my mind

[@awol7047]

Mason that was damn good bro. Very impressive and informative. Appreciate you putting the time in.

[@bornballin3404]

I know how long it took to gather all that data! BIG THANK YOU!! You’re GOATED

[@cjsfw2]

Phenomenal video. Thanks for a the work you had to do to make this. Appreciate it and hope you make many more videos like this!!

[@xJmanbx]

Thanks for the vid Mason, awesome that you’re diving deeper into this.

[@docsamson198]

Well done as always, Mason. Looking forward to more excellent content.

[@Alex-sl1ik]

Great video! I do think that the “most likely team” to beat Vegas odds would be the Titans. And they could get 8 wins or so. However guys like Ridley and DHop are already kinda priced into that.

[@kenschortgenjr7540]

Well done on the deep dive analysis here Flock. Honestly, I have been using this type of strategies in my drafts for quite a few years now, only doing so on a combination of logic and gut feeling... and it works about 70-75% of the time. Ie, I miss a couple players I should have taken but didn't, but overall make up for it with the Achane's of the world like last year. (Good offense, more opportunities) This year Vegas has the Cardinals at 7.5 wins projected and lower third as an offense. Yet last year despite their only 4 wins James Connor was a top 15 RB and Trey McBride would have been a top 3 TE had they played him all season. And that being said, I do think it is correct having Marvin Harrison JR and Trey McBride as high as they are in ADP while also correctly noting your take on Malik Neighbors, Davante Adams, and several others. Keep up the great work and research!

[@adamshlomi2902]

Might be your best work yet, nice job Mason

[@Offline425]

MASON, thank you very much for all of the actionable info!! May i ask where youre pulling your data from? Is it from Killer Sports!?

[@RockTheBeanie]

I’ve been looking exactly for data like this, but with player props and their accuracy. Specifically TD and Yard totals for players to help make my own season projections based on Vegas’s work

[@anthonyc3306]

I think Vegas is wrong about the Raiders. They have good weapons on offense and Minshew is a massive upgrade from what they've had.

[@MikeVeli9]

Minshew is not a huge upgrade tho, he was like bottom 5 qb last year so there is a minor improvement but drafting a rookie te prop won’t improve the offense

[@TheSpeedstur]

Raiders will be ok... but i think Vegas wants a stud QB so they will likely miss the playoffs to get Beck/Sheduer/Etc.

[@owen730]

Yeah plus they added Christian Wilkins. Their defense should be very solid

[@livelikelarry0017]

@@TheSpeedstur vegas should've moved up to get michael penix jr

[@jerseyjay607]

Great video appreciate all the hard work!

[@WendyBaconater]

This is actually crazy you found out you can do this. This changes underdog ALOT.

[@madguitarist63]

Good interesting insights. Think you should expand to top 10 versus 5 as that's much easier to isolate. Threshold of 10 wins generally holds up for offensive production, but not always (I'm thinking teams like Pittsburgh last season). However it's more an exception than the rule

[@rx1026]

this guy's the best in the business

[@JTCapalot]

Mason good too see your face ready for this upcoming szn 🔥

[@Boston99107]

Would be interested to see the data on where top 5 teams come from in comparison to pre season projections. For example if there is a 70% chance the top 5 offenses are in the pre season top 10. That then broadens the pool to draft people using this idea.

[@Kittynelson4]

That’s some wild data bro very useful info.

[@Flockfantasy]

Took a crazy amount of time to put together

[@Kittynelson4]

@@Flockfantasy I can imagine I am in college to be a stat analyst so I’m all too familiar with this stuff lol.

[@mikewilliams-jw8jd]

The problem is that the amount of data ud have to parse to feel really good about these predictions is immense. U said that the bottom 5 offensive teams wr are rarely fantasy relevant but if Vegas only gets it very close 52% of the time then half of the teams we think will be bottom 5 won’t be. Even the in the ballpark teams are off by like 12-15% which can easily push it from bottom 5 to say bottom 7 which we don’t have the data on. To make it more predictive ud need to calc how often a bottom 5 prediction comes true and find out the variance from that up to about 75-80% so in 80% of cases a bottom 5 prediction team ends in the bottom x teams and then look at wr finishes for the teams leading wr for teams whose offense scores in the bottom x teams. Then if it’s still only produced a top 24 finish say 16% of the time u could confidently say this is a valuable metric. Cause having a metric that predicts an outcome only 50-60% of the time isn’t really that useful.

[@bitzyxd]

have been watching for almost 3 years and I’m 2/3 for championships in my league. hoping for 3/4. shoutout mason

[@kellycarpenter78]

I get the Hesitance on Adams. Life long raiders fan here. I do think the raiders finish with more than the projected 6.5 wins but i think its more off the backs of the defense. Raiders want to run the ball and manage the clock. I think what outside fans need to factor is though is that the dynamic of that team was completely lost with Josh McDaniels. Adams will finish with better numbers this year with Getsy back isolating him as primary target. Jakobi sitting as WR58 is also a great value especially if you want to hit maybe Bowers/Jakobi/AOC- Minshew stack late. Defiantly understand the fade of Adams at his price with BB being such a TD dependent format, but sometimes you can get some unique looking teams with him. Hoping he slides more!

[@Mekkablood]

Raiders fan too, but I'm not sure if they stick with the run heavy scheme they'll do well. All their quality weapons are in the passing game(Bowers/Adams/Meyers). People are hyped up about the new coach. I'm unfortunately not.

[@ADRIAN-xn2si]

You’re a wizard Mason! Very interesting data

[@gabelon]

You’re the man Mason! 💪

[@richardregentin5201]

thank you for the effort put into this video

[@johnconner6846]

i absolutely love this video, this is the kind of information you will not find anywhere else on the internet

[@FPFOdylanrice]

Mason, I think you’re making a blunder passing on Adams at mid-late 2nd round. If you look at his fantasy points last year, they were a lot better than most people in that same area he’s being drafted at and his situation has only gotten better. This could be a mistake but I’m taking him over London, Olave, Marv, Deebo, Kupp, and Waddle.

[@lostandfound5985]

Thank you for this great data.

[@dannycragel9686]

Dude yes, way to quantify this question!!

[@bitzyxd]

best channel right here

[@botchy6047]

If you prefer Wilson to aj and puka, who would you rather have between gibbs and wilson

[@MartyDavis-g1t]

So Marvin Harrison is a very good pick Arizona is a sneaky good offence, and his volume will be insane

[@Jhgv-ey6lj]

Who should i take in my ESPN PPR redraft league at pick 9? (If mccaffery, lamb, hill, Jefferson, chase, st brown, hall, or Robinson fall I would take them)

[@sozei]

Whoever you like best between AJ Brown, Puka or GWilson.

[@dabear7822]

aj brown then in the second grab gibbs or taylor

[@Cuevas_josh]

Amazing. Subscriber for life

[@georgevillalobos4534]

The patriots are ganna be down in so many games when they’re passing the wrs are ganna eat I love hunter henry and Jaylen Polk and Demario Douglas and Stevenson I think 1 of those guys will be a massive value based off their adp and I think it’s Polk he’s legit I’m drafting him every chance I get good video brother

[@Meech-ip4tu]

I mean yeah mason. The guys in the top 5 offenses are drafted first round . Guys in the bottom 5s probably like rds 4 and later. So hit rates make sense

[@Jokenword]

This research was needed

[@isaacpeca5505]

This is a lot of info thanks man

[@Adjust91]

NonPPR is going for 2 elite RBs in the first 2 a solid start? I’m picking 7th out of 10 and I’m looking at going either Hall/Bijan in the 1st, and then Barkley/Gibbs/Henry in the 2nd.

[@nickgordon129]

I’m confused how people were even trying to make the argument that Vegas doesn’t know their shit

[@grantpannell4766]

Didn’t jones go from winning a playoff game to getting hurt? So if they bounce back to being a playoff team, wouldn’t that make them one of the teams with a shot to be better than vegas predicts based on this data? Add in a talent like Nabers and I like the Giants of all the bottom 5 teams to pull the upset.

[@aaronhepler8070]

Guy is obsessed with Keon Coleman. Love the info, really testing my A.D.D.!

[@naptown9672]

While Coleman is jammed up with top corners, Curtis Samuel going to eat everything 😋

[@rich9536]

Watching this after just drafting nabers and adams in the same draft :(

[@jeremy008100]

Been smashing davante around the 20 spot all summer. Not sure the raiders are as bad as people think. They were a different team sans McDaniels. Gardener is not the worst qb for fantasy receivers. And finally, he going to the jets!!

[@richielabritz7361]

Do you think that Chase Claypool can carve a role out in buffalo and maybe return value on 18th round picks

[@MikeVeli9]

I like this pick, I’ve picked him about 8 times with my last pick, it’s worth it because now seeing how puka broke out, any sleeper pick last round is worth a shot

[@curtchaplin]

Really interesting and insightful

[@solojohna7516]

won my league last year with ur help this year who do you like better in redraft amon ra or jamar chase

[@michaelfinch4067]

You're the best! Thanks for the consistent content! Dynasty league, should i trade Zach charbonnet for Blake corum? I don't have walker or kyren.

[@Flockfantasy]

Up to you! I prefer Charb

[@GPcanBall24]

What’s the best pick to have in a 10 person draft

[@albertpardo8076]

Good info. Thanks!

[@dogolympics1701]

Can you do a updated how your draft should go pick by pick

[@Flockfantasy]

Soon!

[@andymejia3238]

you are the goat Mason!

[@dylanmaldonado3222]

Mason, I like the breakdown. But why did you use random win totals? I would have preferred looking at teams projected to finish the bottom 5 scoring and see how many finished in the top 15. Teams that projected top 5 who finished outside the top 20. An offense can produce big fantasy points and only win 8-9 games. The random 10 game win cutoff kind of distorts the data.

[@BoltBrethren]

Great video.

[@Guess_Who21]

Crazy amount of research for this one

[@BlakeWilson-r4t]

What is the thought of Justin Jefferson and the Vikings offense?

[@wurmhat1501]

Surprised the Texans weren’t projected bottom 5 last year.

[@chasek41]

Dope content thanks

[@Flockfantasy]

Got you my guy!

[@tanner9956]

I remember I got into an argument with someone on this channel about odds and the idiot said the sport books don’t use probability 😂 some people are really stupid. And you can make a % on excel based on the money line.

[@drabengamez1013]

Hell yeah new vid

[@Flockfantasy]

Gonna start posting more often now !

[@drabengamez1013]

@@Flockfantasy Sounds great, looking forward to the season!

[@owenhorn8940]

What do you think about having CMC and Aiyuk on the same team? 14 man full ppr

[@Flockfantasy]

I like it! Should be a top offense

[@devinyoung3764]

How do I draft in the same draft as mason?

[@richardjames6087]

In other words: Don’t waste a top draft pick on a player who’s likely playing on a very bad offense. Note: Full PPR changes the game a bit for volume WRs

[@lukas2productionsyt505]

amazing video

[@bryceh.6094]

We need the stats of wr2 in these offenses

[@scottjunge5992]

Thanks again for the info sir 👍

[@Flockfantasy]

Thank you for everything my guy!

[@joshuahastakes]

I just don’t understand how you can ring the alarm bells for Nabers and not for MHJ… very similar projected team totals as well as individual totals 🤷‍♂️

[@Flockfantasy]

20th vs 29th projected offenses

[@joshuahastakes]

@@Flockfantasythe aggregator I use has them a little closer at 26 and 23 but I hear ya Appreciate the content I know yall work hard on this stuff

[@Gospeed777]

Wicks,ad,Polk it Dotson ?

[@skylerstrange6537]

The beagles?

[@lokololo321]

adams was in a worse situation last year and finished as wr 10ish i think hes one of the exceptions but i get the thought process

[@javierdelagarza5220]

should i try to trade aiyuk/waddle and kirk cousins for jordan love on dynasty?

[@Flockfantasy]

If superflex yes

[@kingrex1931]

In 2015 the Panthers made the Super Bowl, in 2016 Cam Newton fell off a cliff. Pretty much the equivalent of losing your starting QB.

[@KevvFromDa623]

I love you mason

[@squkeyclean]

Taking 📝

[@Flockfantasy]

get out that pen because there's a lot here

[@davuhn2]

I don’t see a link for this site you got the data from

[@Flockfantasy]

Added now!

[@jdubz_11]

2020 49ers also lost Nick Bosa and multiple defensive starters

[@jmoney12304]

minshew isnt going to start next season

[@the_old_desperado]

trail blazin' channel

[@CALIFORNIAsGAMER]

This yeae dont deaft qb te or dst or kicker until rd 8!

[@Flockfantasy]

Please don't draft a K or DST until the last round

[@CALIFORNIAsGAMER]

@@Flockfantasy kicker I stand on that but dst maybe round 11 or 12

[@CBFW_KO]

lmao, you casually exposing their shady tactics

[@MAiNiiAk]

Fantasy footballers named this stat last week…

[@zzkaliazz]

Just went right around the fact that Washington players at their price point with a regime change and a possible cheat code fantasy QB is the exact example of a team projected bottom that can finish 10 wins.

[@Flockfantasy]

Yeah which is why I said Washington doesn't apply?

[@zzkaliazz]

@Flockfantasy I wanted to hear your take on them being the value and breakout potential. It's not a sexy team to talk about with still a lot of question marks at a lot of positions but I feel of any of the bottom 7 teams they have the most potential for a bounce back season.

[@connorholm25]

Giants and Panthers have a chance at a bounce back season?

[@zzkaliazz]

@connorholm25 they have a chance to some degree but not compared to Washington. Commanders have a lot more balance after reloading this off-season. Their QB although has not hit the field projects with a way higher ceiling then Young or Jones. And the weapons around Daniel's are more balanced and proven. If Quinn turns the defense around they can be this years Texans team.

[@armandotorres1203]

If you didn’t know it’s how he won 150k 2 years ago

[@findingtheFOOT]

Quantity. If you buy 10 lottery tickets vs buying 300+ tickets, you'd have a better shot too. Draft a ton, have parity with your lineups. Not dissing him (he works hard for us!) but it's just simple numbers.

[@Dislight]

I’m gonna be that guy, but that’s actually not really a valid line of thought even if it seems intuitive that the more you buy the higher chance you have to make money. Also not a good example because lotteries are completely a game of chance and have 0 skill expression involved. The lottery is set up in a way where every ticket you buy is negative expected value. So every $1 ticket you buy you may be expected to lose $0.33. It could very well be designed for you statistically to win $200 in 300 tickets because by the time you got the 300th ticket you already bet more money ($300) than you just won (slot machine jackpots are the epitome of this). So actually unlike what you’re saying, buying 10 lottery tickets technically makes you more money than 300, this example it would be losing $3.30 vs. losing $100 In fantasy, you can actually use data to inform your decisions to change your odds of winning to be positive expected value so it’s just not a comparable example.

[@Peter-yo2wm]

The first bit of the video is kind of a word salad. Yea, the top offences are the ones with top WRs, the bottom offences are the ones with mid WRs…

[@antoniogibson7510]

i agree nabers is undraftable people going to get smoked on him i have 0%