How To Handicap Basketball Games In Excel | NBA NCAAB College Analytics

[@KyleKirms]

I threw the one I use up on my website. kylekirms.com/shop It's at the bottom of the page. Completely free just click the link

[@timothyclowney8685]

I have built the spread sheet but how do I get it to where when I put the numbers in the spreadsheet calculates the spread?

[@Johncena12317]

Where

[@sha4x_]

@@timothyclowney8685 💯💯💯

[@CheFyLite]

@@timothyclowney8685 did you ever get a answer to this question ?

[@austinross_1426]

I can’t find it…

[@saiatoli1574]

Thanks a bunch Brother, this dude not just giving us the fish, he teaching us to fish. Good man💯

[@timothyclowney8685]

I have built the spread sheet but how do I get it to where when I put the numbers in the spreadsheet calculates the spread?

[@saiatoli1574]

I was gona ask you on insta to show us this but I thought it was too much to ask (no other capper would do this) It seems I have greatly underestimated your heart, thanks again my Brother💯

[@KyleKirms]

We are all on a team against the books. The better we all do... the better deals we will get. Sportsbooks make less money and have to compete harder for our business

[@c.z.heyward4759]

I’m loving this! I’m glad you incorporate SOS, a lot of people overlook that in capping.

[@MajinBuusha]

I didn't ask for this but I'm so glad you did this. Can't wait to see your Excel sheet link!

[@KyleKirms]

I pinned the comment to the top

[@frst2373]

This is the best video I’ve ever seen on KZbin thank you so much you’re a blessing 🙏

[@maxaronovitz]

I don't even have excel but i love the two websites you dropped. Can you keep plugging great resources... your a g btw

[@saiatoli1574]

He put some resource websites up on his instagram about a week ago, they're really good sites and the numbers are updated daily so you can get a more accurate read.

[@timokatrilaka3038]

@@saiatoli1574 could you please tell me which websites

[@KyleKirms]

I'm not sure which 2 he's referring to I have a bunch I like. But he's probably talking about NBAstuffer . com and hashtag basketball . Com

[@ej55033233]

Love your channel. My favorite. I do my early likes & lines & then compare mine against yours. Thank you for everything. I like every video you do to help.

[@garyh5920]

I'm a numbers nerd and loved the video. Thanks for putting that up.

[@idrissfofana5584]

Kyle that’s such a great video and you simplified it a lot! Much appreciate it. I’ll get the spreadsheet and the sites you use to extract the raw data. 👍🏾

[@timothyclowney8685]

I have built the spread sheet but how do I get it to where when I put the numbers in the spreadsheet calculates the spread?

[@taylor7614]

@@timothyclowney8685 for sure. did you figure it out?

[@timothyclowney8685]

@@taylor7614 unfortunately i did not. Could you be of some assistance?

[@DaltonHuff483]

@@timothyclowney8685 You have to put in different formulas which will calculate

[@sha4x_]

@@DaltonHuff483 how? Can you be a little more specific? 🤕 I have the same problem as dude

[@LateRoundPickk]

Excellent break down. Wonder if there could be validity to using player stats for the categories you mentioned and apply it to prop bets....

[@evanm.4214]

Just came across this. Amazing video and very well described and extremely informative. Thank you!

[@mickeysealtoe9719]

Just subscribed! Your explanations are very helpful.

[@christianralph2259]

Thanks man! First time of using this Got 4-0 tonight! chi Phi Por Orl getting all the points!🎉

[@KyleKirms]

👍👍👍 nice hits my man!

[@quintonburke9108]

How you been doing with this formula now

[@timothyclowney8685]

I have built the spread sheet but how do I get it to where when I put the numbers in the spreadsheet calculates the spread?

[@chriswhitethunder8912]

Awesome! Thanks for the breakdown!

[@AquaRush]

this is goat talk no question asked

[@jiwon9474]

This is awesome🔥🔥 Thanks!!

[@Gmel405]

In case you’re watching this years later like me, this definitely hit. ORL lost by 6 that night lol

[@waverunnerenterprise8063]

This was just the type of video I was looking for thank you

[@yobirsprouts4857]

Thanks a lot Kyle, great video as usual but pls tell us how you combine these variables. I couldn't find the spreadsheet on your site.

[@jazogby]

This is tremendous. Thanks Kyle

[@stayodd]

great video, one thing I recommend is using the 4 factors to create a win probability total and converting that percentage into American odds to try and find an edge against the book for live dogs. Capping against the spread is great but if you can find the edge in the live dog market you can find some great EV

[@DaltonHuff483]

Jus now getting into betting lines, and handicapping games myself and curious about this. How do I take his 4 factors and creating it into a win probability and then converting it to find the the dogs? Amy help would be much appreciated, thanks.

[@stayodd]

​@@DaltonHuff483 you take the difference in each 4 factor, multiply by 100... this gives you a manageable number. You then do as follows ... eFG% * .50 , TOV% * .30 , oREB% * .15, FTRATE * .05 -- this gives you the 4 factors advantage. Ideally you would be creating your own predictive 4 factors for each game to help make this more predictive and less reactive.

[@stayodd]

also adding in HCA is a big part of this

[@DaltonHuff483]

@@stayodd Thanks, man. So to make sure I'm correct in theory you'll take each of the following four factors and do this... Find the difference between Team A and Team A allowed (defense) for each of the four factors and the same for Team B. Then multiply each "difference " from one another multiply by 100 then multiply again by the corresponding %. Then subtract all those differences from each other?? Does that give you the win probability for said team?

[@DaltonHuff483]

Sorry if you dont understand this. I'm somewhat new to statistics, but really am trying to get a hang of it.

[@MisterEO_YT]

That was excellent , thank you for what you do

[@johnnields3428]

Might be a dumb question but I’m trying to get into this. How do you get the factor? Factor of what? I rewatched the video and that’s the only thing I don’t understand

[@Gmel405]

Can I get spreadsheet or the formula for the spread projection?

[@garywright4481]

Kyle, where can I get the spreadsheet you mention in video, BTW I look forward to your videos everyday!

[@Jbank727]

Wow. You just taught people to fish! Thank you man

[@kadakome4417]

Thanks for this video,but how you get this factor number?

[@KyleKirms]

Just type into Google 4 analytics basketball handicap

[@kadakome4417]

@@KyleKirms Ok,thx Kyle.

[@ferick397]

You got a new subscriber!

[@poligone7450]

Thanks man. Great explanations. Do you use similar for College ball as well? It seems like similar logic would work

[@KyleKirms]

I use the same chart. I tweek it and add a little more weight towards offensive rebounding for college games. Tend to have more success that way. But yeah this is for all basketball

[@benkotylak2377]

@@KyleKirms where do you find college ball stats ?

[@KyleKirms]

website I like is called CBB analytics. It's a paid one but they give you a 30 day free trial. Be careful tho and remember that it's FORCED turnover % on that site they list just "turnover %"... so for that category you have to switch opponents and teams

[@jazogby]

I tried to push some numbers through the template but used my KenPom members subscription. Obviously great stats and a NCAABB must have but I don’t love its lack of filters (last 5 games as an example). I’ll have to give this other site a look.

[@jazogby]

In addition to filtering by sample size (5 games, etc.) I struggle too with KenPom is what SOS metric to use. Any thoughts or suggestions?

[@TheeDonnieRey]

Bro... THANK YOU

[@user-bl7yv1wn2w]

I can't find the spreadsheet in your tread. Can you email it to me? Thank you in advance! I love your videos

[@rickcarroll6138]

Any chance you can share what values you apply to certain "Extras".{e.g. Injury = a value, Traveling = a value etc...}

[@KyleKirms]

That part is personal preference. Honestly the whole thing is personal preference, in a way. You might find that when teams are missing their #1 rebounders… you have a higher hit rate. I might find that when I follow the turnover rate numbers, I’m hitting at a higher rate. It’s all a process of trying to stay consistent, find patterns and always be open minded to change. You might view 1 player being out as a 3 point difference… and I might not even view it as a factor.

[@ChrisKessinger]

Is there a similar site for NCAAB to get stats for the last 5 games?

[@frst2373]

Can you do one on totals please?

[@terrell757]

Great info

[@bootleggable]

hey the numbers on NBAstuffer and NBA official stats section are different, also when u plug in the official stats the number generated is different from NBAstuffer’s figures. i believe manually calculating gives a more accurate value then those posted on nbastuffer imo. any other resources to cross examine the coefficient generated?

[@KyleKirms]

Yo props for being thorough.... I am the same way I will check 5 different sources. I don't see those stats on NBA .Com stats tho I don't see EFG or FTO. Am I missing em? Yeah to do it manually would be the best way for sure

[@KyleKirms]

As far as other resources... I switch it up I don't have a set source. I've been using NBA stuffer recently. But anywhere that gives you those analytics accurately will work fine

[@bootleggable]

@@KyleKirms advanced stats four figure on nba.com

[@KyleKirms]

@@bootleggable can I get your name on social media or email? I like your style

[@KyleKirms]

@@bootleggable weird... they are really really close but not quit exact. Just tested 4 teams out and it was like 53.8 on NBA and 53.7 on NBA stuffer. It's close enough but I agree it pisses. Me off why aren't they the samr

[@Loc403]

Love the best

[@taylor7614]

HEY . APPRECIATE THE VIDEO . i'm typing in the numbers but nothing is happening at all. please tell me how to make it create this algrothim

[@RussellGrande]

Can the spreadsheet be used in Google Sheets as well?

[@KyleKirms]

Thsts what I use Google sheets... honestly I'm not sure. I had my girlfriend convert it to xls... I dk how to send you the Google sheets file without letting you edit my original document you know? Like I dk how to send you a copy of 8t

[@BlackListEDz]

This is the stuff.

[@justme6998]

Hey kyle do you still have the nba sprradsheet?

[@kevinoverholtzer3126]

I like it but it seems like i always get a number like 3 or lower so it is almost always telling you to bet for the dog

[@alleyezontheline8349]

Anything for any other sports

[@Yephoid9]

Nice!

[@CRYPTO_KHAOS]

Link please. U da man

[@KyleKirms]

Pinned comment at the top

[@rogeliomontenegro8259]

Where can I download you spread sheet?

[@donniecole379]

Is the spreadsheet still available to download?

[@bristevenson866]

This video is the SAUCE

[@RollinSchidt]

Does this work?

[@Zt1Fox]

Whice type spreadsheet?

[@cheeseworldps]

I’m on the site and don’t see Last five games

[@ahanj-f1k]

How do you do this for NCAA?

[@johnmitchem2124]

How can I get spreadsheet

[@bristevenson866]

Is the excel sheet still up ?

[@dennisraymartmacapobre3220]

How to comput over under hehe ?

[@bestvideosaround1155]

What site is that

[@TCS088]

This is useless without the formulas in the factor column. Do you have that info or a link to download the spreadsheet?

[@KyleKirms]

Yes. I give it away to my VIP subscribers. 22-23’s isn’t up yet tho. It’ll be up in 2 weeks

[@BoysKasa]

Care to share your excel template please?

[@KyleKirms]

I just pinned the comment to the top of these comments

[@BoysKasa]

@@KyleKirms thank you soo much man... btw it's @iamselasie on Twitter haha

[@KyleKirms]

Ohhh whatsup man?? Awesome thanks for checking the video out

[@BoysKasa]

@@KyleKirms blessed, man. working on tonight's cap. I'm betting 4 games today.

[@KyleKirms]

I'm gonna bet all 6 hahaha. Such a bad move by me

[@evergreen_DIY]

You are the fucking man dude

...For Totals?

[@tjnevercared8072]

Can you give the link to that generator

[@KyleKirms]

Pinned comment at the top

[@stevepaglia6982]

Jersey baby I bet in ac alot u ever down there

[@azmendozafamily]

I use TS% instead of eFG%

[@spookyofficer1417]

I still cant understand about the extras.

[@LIGHT7CODE7]

I think your factor table is way off. Pacers at Celtics. Spread is -8 for the Celtics. Your sheet spits out basically an even number for the spread.....so the game is really even? I think you need to relook at your values.

[@KyleKirms]

This is last year’s video and last year’s sheet man

[@Keys222thecity]

@@KyleKirmsdo you have a sheet for this year?

[@hunterzinthehype8965]

🔔

[@teamdinei7]

How calculate factor... i'm lost

[@johnnields3428]

Guys I figured out the secret “formula” for factor 😂 look at the numbers think about the info he tells you… anyone need help let me know

[@sethuser1731]

Excel isn’t working for me

[@leytontisalona1835]

I got 2 million on bengals half and game

[@tattooquis5392]

Yoyo

[@numbersguy0824]

Dope video. NERD ALERT

[@KyleKirms]

🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@lemuelconde]

Only apply this to lowkey games, games that don't draw a big crowd. Why? Because when "Vegas" comes to play all of this is USELESS. MAFIA is real in sports betting and it's up to you if you can ride it. Remember this always.... Sports Betting is a Business.

[@2011sliverdude]

He lost the next day lol