How To Value a Dividend Company | Joseph Carlson Ep. 50

The Fed's balance sheet is exploding, but it's "not QE". Steve Eisman (Steve Carell on the Big Short) tells about the biggest problems in the market. And I go through the best method of buying dividend stocks in a dip.
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[@hoangz24]

Randomly came across this video and wow the way you value stocks now vs then is so vastly different. Your portfolio and style is so much different for the better imo. Thanks for the content, keep it up

[@sadworldwelivein2218]

About like 5 years ago I bought 256 shares of O for $38-$44. Sold them all in 2016 to pay off my student loans. Amazing company.

[@isettech]

Currently overvalued. PE is over 40. Yield is in the single digits. I buy on this sale stocks with PE under 20 and Yield in the double digits annually in critical infrastructure which has more protection from consumer discretionary spending in a recession. Utilities, some manufacturing, energy production and distribution such as pipelines. Amazon is too popular. Price is high so it is over valued, PE is over 110. Dividend and yield are both N/A.

[@mkmking1551]

Joseph you are absolutely amazing, the amount of value you provide is extremely generous and empathetic of you. I wish you much success. Thank you for these analytical tips.

[@henrikalexis4168]

you all probably dont give a shit but does anybody know of a way to log back into an instagram account? I stupidly forgot my account password. I love any tricks you can offer me

[@Drop321]

thanks for breaking down the commentary. Your breakdowns help me feel like Im actually learning real information instead of hearing entertaining light news.

[@mobn506]

I’m here driving thinking okay this is gonna be a nice 16 min video . When i saw 51 mins I’m like Joseph bout to go in lol

[@jamesm.3967]

You’re driving and watching videos?

[@MissingYouser]

Didn’t you only have a few thousand or even hundred subscribers around January? Wow this channel grew more than the portfolio😂

[@stevencooper4422]

It's the real investment now 😉

[@harrellt1405]

vinter2ooo undervalued channel

[@rolanddeschain823]

I wish i could invest in this channel lol

[@UrbanJournal]

vinter2ooo Compound Interest😅

[@MrGuarumoDog]

Do you offer a DRIP for this channel?

[@cherrytung]

You probably make the longest video out of all the dividend investing channels I follow, but I always tend to watch the entire time! So many golden nuggets 🎯

[@dialac1]

What other channels are you watching?

[@vincentchuvc]

And you comment on all those videos :-p

[@ucNguyen-kr4gf]

This particular ep has one of the best content you have to offer so far. A lot of informative information about value buying and I really like your interpretation on the Fast Money. Please keep up with the quality content like this :)

[@allgood4729]

As an investor in her mid sixties I learn so much from you. I am your subscriber for quite sometime. Your pick on dividends features for M1 Finance is too good, I agree with you totally. Thank you for putting out such valuable content. 👍😊

[@annettetolbert1211]

Steve Eisman is a humble and chill dude. I enjoy hearing his opinions in various interviews.

[@JosephCarlsonShow]

M1 Finance (broker used in video): m1finance.8bxp97.net/3Wm4A Shortcuts to different parts of this episode: Valuing a dividend company: 6:05 The fed and "not" QE: 25:50 Steve Eisman interview: 31:35 Question and Answer: 44:24 The website used for the analysis on this video is seekingalpha.com

[@nickhubert3804]

JNJ is so well positioned. Everything thinks of them as a pharma company and consumer product company (which they are and that's where they are facing legal trouble), but everyone seems to forget their rock solid medical device companies (Depuy Synthes, Ethicon, Etc.).

[@wraithrunner2355]

Man I love that M1 Finance Company it really is too bad they don't offer their services in other countries makes me sad.

[@jonasvsn]

yeppp I want them here in Germany...

[@jamesblace5761]

Damn germany is worst country for investors... just bullshit Brokers.

[@hafizjamil9313]

Malaysia

[@RobertTiger942]

And that marks the end of my binge watch. Now what? I need to WAIT for a new episode... Jee

[@b.sharp.]

This is my new favorite video on KZbin.

[@KelechIwuaba]

So much information. Anyone else get kinda challenged every time they watch these videos? But excited so much to learn, slowly but surely I will get there.

[@GenExDividendInvestor]

I love seeing dividends snowball! And I love analyzing companies :) Starting to watch as I drink my morning java!

[@GenExDividendInvestor]

@Rudy Definitely! The KZbin finance community is very cool :)

[@isettech]

Well done. Showing yield shows a good picture. I look at 3 primary numbers when I buy stock, then investigate the company business model. For example you used. Microsoft. PE Ratio (TTM)30.77 Forward Dividend & Yield2.04 (1.10%) Yes you get FDIC insurance and 1.5% yield in some passbook savings accounts, not counting the paper value of the stock rising, which is not guaranteed. With the current market sale, I look for PE in critical infrastructure that is under 20 with dividends in double digits as the price is right. PE Ratio (TTM)44.13 Due to lower earnings PE is higher this quarter. Forward Dividend & Yield2.31 (7.20%) At the sale price I got this the Yield is over 12%. As a pipeline stock, earnings are expected to return with higher dividends. Even then I prefer these dividends over the small amount MSFT pays. MSFT EPS is $6.00. Dividends are $2.02. My other pipeline stock in comparison; EPS 0.73. Dividend 2.31. Yes they for the quarter paid more than they earned. The first quarter has a double impact of expanding the pipeline capacity while consumption is down 30%. Expect consumption and earnings to return. The bonus is the stock was on sale. Another pipeline with recent expansion costs. EPS (TTM)-2.40 This produced even bigger sale prices. Forward Dividend & Yield2.75 (15.52%) Worry over possible reductions in dividends hit the price, so yes great sale. In the news.. Cut an paste from The Motley Fool. Units of MPLX (NYSE:MPLX) have been under tremendous pressure this year due to the collapse of oil prices. The main weight has been investor concerns about the master limited partnership's (MLP) ability to maintain its big-time payout. But the energy company put some of those fears to rest by reporting solid first-quarter results. It also reaffirmed its support for the dividend (which yields more than 15% following this year's nearly 30% slide in its market value) even as it maintains its strategic expansion plan. I've used the recent stock sale to diversify out of tech stock into infrastructure stock. Two examples given. Low price with good dividends is a win.

[@ihavehotmail2]

I really liked the second half of this video where you dissect the panels discussion

[@PapaCharlie9]

Given the extremely low rate of retirement savings of recent generations, some experts are recommending that instead of opening a 529 when you have a new baby, open a custodial Roth IRA for them. College funding can be managed one way or another, but managing retirement funding if you haven't saved for decades is much harder. And think about the compounding! An extra 20-30 years will have a huge impact on their retirement. And, any principle more than 5 years old in the Roth can be withdrawn penalty free, if that's the only way to help pay for college.

[@brianfire7464]

Keep it up! I'm following your foot steps and growing my M1 Finance acct. You are an inspiration.

[@ten5039]

The notification squad is here. :D

[@JarodM]

Excellent presentation on stock valuation Joseph, thanks~👍

[@hagriever]

Hey Joseph, been a subscriber for a few months now. Really appreciate your content and your transparency. This episode was extremely helpful, as I was struggling with determining whether or not companies were under/over valued. Love the content!

[@luigirebollos9029]

I'm gonna invest in the same pie with $2k and $200/m for 2020. Wish me luck 😅

[@Benbow07]

Update this comment in 2021 for me please

[@CosmicSeeker69]

You are going to need all the luck in the World

[@larsdrost550]

Øath betrayer Joseph explains this in his video If you watch it, focus on The section from 9:00 till 13:00.

[@IanEckie]

Any updates?

[@CommandoMaster]

He's probably gonna forget to.

[@aaronhokanson6718]

I've been consuming KZbin videos for knowledge while I work. This is by far the most comprehensive video I've come across thus far. Good work man (liked, subscribed, sharing...)

[@mirianadimitrova2112]

Finally - a comprehensible and interesting investing tutorial! Thanks for the great explanation and real-life examples, really made a difference! Could you please recommend a M1 alternative for Europeans?

[@nathand8401]

Hey Joseph, can you please do a video on how your set the targets in your portfolio, not only between different industries, but also each stock? Thanks!

[@billyjohnson9166]

Good info. I love dividend paying stocks 3-6% is my sweet spot. JNJ is a no brainier now. I hope it goes down Monday I’ll be a buyer.

[@tilarmeister]

This is one of my first few dividend investing videos watched and really learn alot. Thanks for this ! Offers new perspective to investing!

[@subsonicflighttraining]

I really enjoyed this episode, good content on the valuation discussion and analysis of Steve Eisman's comments on CNBC...

[@Thetatraderz]

Good job researching stocks. I like to simply buy ETFs like sphd which follows a lot of what you covered.

[@isettech]

PE Ratio (TTM) N/A Yield 5.60% YTD Daily Total Return -25.29% Hope you sold at a profit. Not looking good during the pandemic.

[@Snafu2346]

I wonder where that "I INVESTED FOR A WHOLE WEEK" guy?

[@TheDreamGreenShow]

lol RIGHT!

[@AmericanBulldogFit]

"is that". Invest in some English classes.

[@KinseySwartz]

@@AmericanBulldogFit I think the "is" should go at the end of the sentence, not before "that."

[@jacoblloyd2573]

Joseph, the amount of competency you have with businesses and the statistics for stocks is so common sense to you that I might need to rewatch the entire series to better stick the knowledge with myself too. Mind you, I am taking on a similarly different portfolio with my target to achieve overwhelming compounding interest. The idea that money is cheap goes beyond just the stock market, and that is kind of makes sense when someone is frivolous with their finances in a bull market. A decently increasing economy in general.

[@NickPeitsch]

Excellent video! This is super valuable for anyone wanting to pick their own stocks. I’m personally a value investor and I’ve seen good results 👍

[@koolaidsman451]

This is a good dividend stock valuation strategy, but it does has his flaws like he was saying. For example microsoft has changed from a dividend/value stock to a growth stock. Their management has changed to focusing on revenue and profit growth and they have accomplished that. You are not really paying for the value you are paying for future growth. Like he said since it is a growth stock if their growth starts to slow investors will sell out, personally I dont think this will happen in the next few years but im sure it will eventually.

[@OKMX5]

Was just going to write this. MSFT is my top holding.

[@koolaidsman451]

@@OKMX5 same for me as well

[@TheGoldenAgeofHardRock]

Joseph, thanks for the continued top notch content. It's always a great day when I see you've released another video!!!

[@vintr1x759]

so funny to hear you say Deutsche Bank Greetings from Germany

[@panda2]

jap zu . gut XD . cheers

[@alessandroesposito5207]

Ha ha yes is right

[@krisk03]

Steve's prediction about Zillow came true in 2021.

[@SUHABOUT]

I am learning a lot... Thank you, Joseph!

[@frapeyou]

hey Joseph, could you do a video on starting at 18 from 0$ or even -10,000$ in debt, like how to get to your stage around X age, like what general steps you would suggest to copy what you did plus tips you learned the hard way for people to avoid

[@mainscale2570]

Earn more, spend less, pay off the debt ASAP if the rate is high.

[@ioannislazaridis4887]

Excellent video. Thank you very much for your valuable information. Cheers from Finland.

[@PassiveIncomeTom]

Great work! 👍 Your portfolio continues to grow! I love dividends since they make up 95% percent of my portfolio.

[@Andrew-nq2dt]

Everyone should look at the balance sheet now

[@ryanharris1815]

Interesting to see where you are too where you were brother. Nice journal, enjoy the roller-coaster

[@TheeChozzenOne]

It's nice when the news cast allows the much more knowledgeable subject matter expert do the talking. I was watching an interview with Ray Dalio recently and the same courtesy was not afforded to him...which is a real shame.

[@UnplayedGaming]

What does everyone think of investing in brokerages them selves? TD Ameritrade has a 3% dividend yield and is on sale because of the free commissions

[@jeremiedumas8555]

@Rudy in fact their earnings gonna get hit a lot. Their commission was accouting for around 20% or more (I don't have the precise %) of their earnings.

[@jerlinjoseph6865]

Listen to the earnings call that is coming up next week and go from there

[@robertchew2842]

very timely....thanks for the all the vids Joseph!

[@JB-1490]

I am thinking of transferring my money from Vanguard account to M1 Finance. Does M1 Finance tax program easily communicate with Turbotax?

[@marklittrell3202]

Very helpful video. Gave me some new ways to look at and use div yield numbers. Thanks!

[@Lindamal34]

Great video!! So helpful, Thank you!!

[@LetsbeYannis]

Hi Joseph. I have been watching your videos for a while now and my question is, could someone substitute what you are doing on your regular account just by buying SPHD and maybe a couple more ETFs and just feed those every month? Is the reason you do not want to do this the expense ratio of 0.2-0.3 a factor or you think your strategy beats those ETFs? Thank you and great work!

[@ianwilliam9531]

John K This is a good question. I’ve had similar thoughts, but I have a portfolio with around 40 different holdings (including 3 or 4 ETFs) and I enjoy trying to pick some big winners. Joseph mentioned the awesome return he has had with Realty Income, and that would not happen if he only held ETFs. In my portfolio it was Qualcomm that rewarded me. Just my two cents ✌🏼

[@LetsbeYannis]

@@ianwilliam9531 It is true single stock picking can be lucrative but that also needs a lot more work to calculate when to buy when to sell because there should be always a time to seel because companies won't be successful for decades. Look how Apple has only been successful since 2004 and after that take research and a lot of time which beats the purpose of passive income it's more like active job like an analyst.

[@meshelle_kimeko]

He was correct about Zillow.

[@HB-yq8gy]

Excellent video thank you great simple explanation.

[@joshnuno6060]

Great episode

[@alexchun5944]

Love your videos, they’re so informative and not filled with BS! Can’t wait to see what other content you release in 2020! HNY!

[@MrSalehovich]

Hello JC, love your videos. I was wondering, when do you think it's a good time to pause your auto invest, and just enjoy the steady cash flow you're getting from your dividends? Thank you...~

[@arnasleusinas3544]

commenting for the youtube algorithm. Like the video!

[@JoseCastro-sc4pm]

thanks Joseph, I just started on the stock market and I've been researching how to figure out which companies are under or over valued. This may not be the secret, but I may be part of it.

[@isettech]

For me PE under 20. and annual yield in double digits, again not possible with price too high. When price is too high for the Earnings, the PE is high. Example Amazon.. Amazon is making record earnings, but also record price keeping the PE too high for investment. PE is over 110 today. Dividends and Yield are N/A.

[@OliverHani]

He was far from right on shorting Tesla 😂. Anyways just wanted to share my gratitude to your channel. It’s quite interesting.

[@tomasrozas8102]

Hi joseph! I have a question for you, where do you find consolidated information about companies ? you use any page that collects info or just take it from finantial reports directly ? i tried using yahoo finance and seaking alpha but i don't know if the information they provide is reliable (i sometimes compare the data the give me with each other and they always give diferent numbers) Thank you!

[@bestofa-z9751]

50th episode! Nice work Joseph

[@hassaninvesting]

Always providing values!

[@TaylanYalniz]

What is your favorite research tool online? i.e. Yahoo finance? Fidelity Screener etc? when looking for ETFs with Dividends info etc? Thank you for the great content

[@cg219]

Hey Joseph. Love the channel by the way. I watch every week. I have a question on dividend taxes. I know that they are taxed as income or as capital gains if they are qualified. But I can never find WHEN I have to pay these taxes. So for example. If I make $1000 in dividend earnings this year and just reinvest them or never withdraw it from my account. Come April 15th, do I have to pay the taxes earned on that at that time?? Or do I only have to pay the taxes if I withdraw it during the year. In case of the former, does this mean I have to sell assets to pay the taxes on these earnings if I never planned on withdrawing?? Thanks!! I hope I made sense!! - Mente

[@anomaliesanonymous]

Tax must be paid whether or not you withdraw the dividends

[@matthewryan4844]

the biggest gap in the analysis of looking at the dividends only is that maybe they are hoarding capital. You need to look at the balance sheet. Companies with $1 dividends will have very different stock prices if one holds $500,000 assets and the other $50M

[@Precisionmagert]

Great video. I'm a newer shareholder. This video was very informative

[@stevegunawan421]

i think that DCF might be a better valuation method, but your method is definitely easier for a quick valuation

[@pacifictv7214]

On average, how long do you invest in a company? So other than your conviction companies like apple, do you tend to re allocate your profits once you feel a company is over bought?

[@danielgrass5290]

I have a couple questions! Around 8:20 you say that the dividend yield (FWD) would be a red flag if above 6%. With the stocks hitting new lows it seems like everyday. I was really interested in flooding money into a lot of good dividend stocks. I was thinking about ticker SPG. But it has a high dividend yield. Around 18% at the moment. Do you think the dividend will be cut to make up for the high percentage or is the stock just oversold and will it go up in value quickly. Thanks! Love the videos! Even though we are in a bear market right now!

[@treeblaster32]

Very excited to watch !

[@guyredares]

I enjoyed the video, it is important to consider inflation in such a comparison

[@faith_lim]

Hi Joseph, I’m new to your channel (and investments/investing 😅), so far I find myself agreeing to your analysis since I’m also interested in dividend growth investing. However I’m really weak and inexperienced with stocks analysis, was wondering if you could do videos on the key ratios or metrics investors should look out for and what do these values mean when analysing certain industries (e.g. Banking HAHA) Thank you!

[@halimamumin8164]

Very informative, thank you. I was dabbling in Robinhood prior, but you were my introduction to M1 and dividend growth investing. I transferred an old 401k, converted it into a Roth IRA that I invested in dividend ETFs, and got started chipping away at the yearly contribution cap. I’d like to open an individual when that becomes feasible. I’m curious to hear about your opinions and positions on financial literacy outside the stock market world, if you care to share or venture out, since this was pretty demystifying. Somehow I doubt this is your only focus.

[@lolsih101]

Hi, love your videos. I have really learned alot and hope you continue uploading in the future. I was just wondering, knowing that your strategy meant to survive both good and bad financial times, in a worst case scenario how fast can you go liquid if you have to? Thanks again!

[@Nard313]

Amazing video and information. Thank you for what you do.

[@kalvincalvert]

You're killin it man. Keep it up.

[@BostonLouie]

I might have missed it ,but can you tell us how much you have gotten paid in dividends since you started the portfolio ?

[@richardcsillag2459]

Great job Joseph excellent content

[@michaelspangler9086]

I been subbed to you since esp 1 you got hooked on M1 finance

[@gil2904]

This channel is amazing.

[@AndrejD303]

thank you for your video, exactly this kind of vids im looking for

[@GolfsMyGame]

Joe, do you ever determine a stocks intrinsic value based on a dividend discount model or a discounted cash flow model? In other words, using one of those models to to determine the present value of a stock’s future cash flows and adding in a percentage based margin of safety (ie 10 to 20% below NPV) below it’s net present value (NPV).

[@Coda1850]

Excellent episode. Very interesting content!

[@JuggusNawt]

I had to skip out on buying things like lockheed..boeing.. Costs simply too much.. why buy a 300$ stock for a 2 buck return. i can buy much more O or att or something els.

[@MrGiggity890]

That’s not how this works.

[@MrGiggity890]

priceandpride no it sounds like he thinks that buying more nominal shares matters. It doesn’t.

[@JuggusNawt]

@@MrGiggity890 sorry, but a 350$ share for 2$ every 3 or so months is not worth it. I want constant compounding with dividends and if i put all my money in overpriced stocks it will take ages to get sizable growth. I only care about dividend income.

[@MrGiggity890]

@@JuggusNawt You're complaining about yield, not the nominal per-share price of the stock. Derp.

[@JuggusNawt]

@@MrGiggity890 i explained what i was complaining about.

[@TheBruces56]

One of my holdings (PG) is valued at $70k, $35K of which is capital gain. Not bad considering it pays a dividend of about $450 a month, all of which is reinvested.

[@JohnJackson-wq1df]

Regarding the comment in the video about what big improvement M1 Finance should make. I think they need to find a way to allow users to make limit buy and sells at least for individual stocks. I can see how buying into a whole pie would be difficult if you had limits for each ticker in the pie. But we should be allowed to set limit orders on single stock buys and sells. Example of why I say this. Ticker RRD steady uptrend for couple of months now. Usually closes in the green but has a pattern of spiking in the morning then dipping after 10am eastern before recovering back up to or near the daily high. Having to make a decision for a window of 10am eastern time causes you to buy almost at the daily high. I caught this at its lows and im up about over %100 but could be much more if not forced to do market orders.

[@jt8280]

Dividends are the best investment.

[@invisiblefish6399]

Are you still going to be using M1 finance now that Schwab is going to offer fractional shares?

[@psy8428]

I've watched a most of your videos but not all. Is there somewhere you talk about your Roth IRA (a little more than in this video)? I see you have a link to it in the description, but is all of your Roth in M1? Why do you think dividend investing is the right strategy for _both_ your personal account and your Roth account?

[@bananaboyTS]

you should look at the logarithmic chart of microsoft

[@snowy6624]

Based off of this valuation method companies like spg, abbv, or mmm would be considered a buying opportunity

[@billyjohnson9166]

I own all three

[@AlexanderDiArmani]

M1Finance: how do you know what shares they will buy? That automated thing confuses me.

[@AMM0beatz]

Very informative! 👍🏽

[@marketbeans]

This is a very good video

[@bryantirawan]

Very good video

[@manp1039]

do you have the Free M1 Finance acct or the M1 Finance Plus acct? Have you used any other investment brokerages? I am wondering what you think about the differences between the ones you have used. Have you used the M1 Finance debit card?

[@garrettjensen5647]

Great stuff man. Keep up the great videos

[@TheDreamGreenShow]

I wait untill the RSI is over sold on the 180 day on a great company

[@zanehutchison7304]

Eisman must be hurting after the Tesla short burn... I actually own some Tesla stock, and am currently up 45% so pretty happy rn haha

[@MultiVigarista]

He is crazy, tesla is going to be one of the bigges car & energy companies by 2050

[@caprimann87]

I sold when I hit 100% some days ago