IBM Stock Analysis - 5.2% Dividend - Hybrid Cloud Growth, but...

[@boratsmagadijev940]

Tvoji stari videi su zlata vrijedni

[@s1u8n]

Over compensated ceo, declining revenues, bogus company split to play accounting games, looks like a value trap, Buffet would agree.

[@xdman20005]

Infuriating that these clowns always pay themselves more and more and more, and the incompetent owners let it happen. Just absurd how much distance ceos have between themselves and reality in these companies

[@mr3817]

This is obvious and why IBM is Jim Chanos' highest conviction short right now...

[@JanBruunAndersen]

@@xdman20005 - Incompetent owners? Like all the people who have bought shares?

[@xdman20005]

@@JanBruunAndersen the ones with voting rights. Look at averege ceo pay in relation to other positions in us top 500 companies since the 70s. Its moral hazard partially caused by lazy owners

[@hodoprime]

Passive owners dont care. Buy small cap with very little institutional ownership.

[@michaelbird6741]

Great analysis as always Sven. My take away when looking at this was how much of a burden that big dividend is on the growth. It doesn't leave much flexibility for investment and debt payment. I would be more interested if they reduced their dividend - which all their shareholders would hate but that would show a true course change.

[@philhosking3497]

Your analysis is spot on imo Sven. I worked for IBM for over 20 years up until 2013 and I remember very clearly the total lack of direction from palmisano and rometty in the last few years I was there. Everyone could see what cloud was doing and was going to do to the hw and sw units but there was no sense of urgency within the company. They seemed to think that if they just increasingly reclassified existing product sales as 'cloud' they were actually becoming a cloud company. It was madness. I think when buffet sold his shares he said that he thought alot of very senior people had been "sitting on their hands" while the biggest shift in 20 years was underway in the industry. He was dead right. I sold all the shares I accumulated as an employee when I left and bought msft shares with the proceeds which I still own and I'm very thankful how that turned out. Its a disgrace how much compensation rometty has received over past 8 years while basically overseeing the decline of a once great company. But Buffet and Munger I think would probably correctly lay most of the blame on the board and comp committee.

[@dividendenkontor]

IBM up 100%

[@the_DOS]

Sven, I work in one of those big companies you had a logo of that works with IBM mainframe. We do millions of transactions a day and we have been building our own new NMFP (not mainframe processing) in multiple cloud companies. Soon we will move away from mainframes.

[@JunYamog]

Thanks Sven, this helped fell better as I sold IBM on Friday. Good enough profit for the last few months, also got dividends. Looking for something better.

[@topstocks774]

I bought IBM some months ago. My hope is that the new CEO will turn things around like Satya Nadella did with Microsoft after taking over for Steve Ballmer.

[@gordo3582]

Summary: "Looks tempting, but I'm not buying it. Their management has a bad track record and they probably can't compete well." Sven, I'd be interested in your analysis of MET (insurance) they have a single digit P/E and around 4% dividend. I've been making a lot on it this year because who is crazy enough to buy a life insurer during a pandemic? I am ;)

[@y.h8383]

And Sven’s track record shows that he only analyze the stocks here which are not buy. He want you to subscribe to his research platform and make 💰 if you need to find the buy stocks. :)

[@JanBruunAndersen]

@@y.h8383 - that is not how I remember it. I have made buck on Albemarle (a lithium producer) which I believe he analysed here a year ago. I also think I remember him having good words on 3M, airport operators, etc.

[@felixfrost1564]

@@JanBruunAndersen Is it skill or because of a everything bull market?

[@2023Red]

Yes and that is why I no longer have ibm. Fundamental numbers are hard to ignore. You did a solid study and not in your native language. You are to be congratulated for doing this super video. I use two metrics which are payout ratio and if shares are bullish excluding dividend.

[@cemen777]

Excellent video. Thank you as always, Sven!

[@garrisonsimon]

I was wondering about IBM! Thanks for the great video as always Sven!

[@kingkong8974]

You are doing a glorious service, thank you

[@alejandrovidal7535]

I agree! very well explained. Thanks very much for your honesty and comments. Good content

[@Value-Investing]

THanks!

[@JD-im4wu]

Great analysis, I agree that at the current price its not invest able and price is not attractive enough to the problems its facing with. Overbloated company living off stock buybacks, moat driven high dividends and self overrewarding management. However on the bright side the acquisitions and investments and futuristic plans made can yield future growth as a Techie... The valuation is not there yet imho however I have not thrown IBM into trashbin just yet I am still waiting for an acceptable entry price because a good turn around is possible with the right new management. High dividend yield can offer a nice place to park your cash in however dividends can be very deceiving in a market tech sell off.

[@awe3715]

Great video as always. A video about Cisco would be interesting too

[@Value-Investing]

made an analysis, only for my platform :-(

[@user-jc1yx9of9p]

Sven as always good video. Thank you for making it!

[@-_MR666_-]

IBM is in an enormous volatile state - actually a double sided sword. One for the declining core business but another for the growing businesses e.g. the cloud business. The CEO has to deliver and steer the company trough a storm of uncertainty. Not my worst investment as I got in cheap but definitely not for the faint hearted as well. Before I forget, thumbs up again;)👍🏼

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@felixfrost1564]

legendary short seller Jim Chanos analysis on financial statements, think he brought a stock in a short position. Cant say which one but you get the point.

[@CoffeeAndBusiness]

I bought IBM back in August because I knew this to be true. Thank you for your videos Sven, they keep me sane and grounded! It’s good to be able to filter out the noise as well as receive confirmation on ones stock picks! There are opportunities in Redhat. It just depends on if you want to go against sentiment or not! As a dividend investor, I believe this is a good pick. They will be fine.

[@lijie2511]

As someone in IT for many years, I don't see a good future for IBM existing software products. They lose in every aspects to their competitors in different markets. A positive news is that there is a new CEO, finally. I got some good feeling with him. But Unless he has plan to do big reorg, the future is unpredictable.

[@Kilaueaorph4n]

Hi @Sven! A little late to the video, but here are my thoughts: - IBM went down in a decade of positive market sentiment. Calling IBM Big blue is right: it represents the big sadness you feel when you see you assets shrink. - In the meantime, Ginny got her real 10 bagger by increasing her paycheck throughout her disastrous management. Talk about compounding salary! - The new CEO promises sustained “growth ” at mid single digits. The phrases “Mid single digits” and “growth” should not be allowed in the same sentence. Besides, the new CEO looks like a desperate attempt to copy Microsoft’s move with Satya...but only on a budget...a real tight one. Like they had 54 billion in debt. - And finally, the era of mainframes is slowly but surely coming to and end, and ~this bunch of pirates and thieves~ the management seems to remain oblivious to that. In scientific terms, IBM sublimates your money. That is, it evaporates directly from solid cash, skipping the melting phase. It’s like it disappears in front of your eyes. As always, great content Sven :)

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for the nice comment :-)

[@jonnyrob440]

Hi Sven thanks for the video what do u think about att

[@paulherlichka6862]

What do you think about Jim Chanos’ short position on IBM? He briefly covers it in a recent interview w. Bloomberg.

[@xdman20005]

Jim "shorting a cult stock yes yes" Chanos?

[@felixfrost1564]

great guy along with carlson block, the guys that popped enron, wire card and nikola

[@ilkethegreat]

I think it's a bad company for now but the destinies of the corporations have vicissitudes. I think as intelligent investors we have to add IBM to our watchlists, any new catalyst may turnover the company. We shall see what's going to happen under the new CEO. By the way, great video!

[@l3rucewayne1]

I'm more interested in getting the spinoff if it gets oversold. Is IBM not shifting alot of their debt onto the spinoff?

[@malkeri2107]

👍 Great content again Sven. 👍 I've not got IBM but your analysis was brilliant as usual. Sven what do you think about Jim Chanos short seller stating there are some accounting tricks being done by IBM make them a value trap? I'm not good with reading accounts like you so maybe you could discuss some of these accounting tricks and see if they are relevant or over stated by Jim Chanos? Thanks Sven👍

[@Value-Investing]

video came out!

[@malkeri2107]

@@Value-Investing Thank you Sven.

[@ecchen1]

Great in-depth research. IBM has no vision.

[@VilleHyytiainenInvesting]

Famous short seller Jim Chanos said that IBM is using some accounting tricks and their real earnings are much lower than reported.

[@przemyslawfejdych8433]

Great video as always. Any thoughts on China Mobile?

[@bobzzo]

In terms of splitting IBM are now where HP was 4-5 years ago, with splitting the "end user oriented" computing business and the "corporate customer" oriented services of HP and HPE. Then it followed the acquisition (masked as a merge) by CSC of the IT Mgmt services business of HPE - the result was DXC, and well, you can check their stock chart, it shows perfectly how "great" it ended. The problem of all these companies alike are that they've become too big and too slow for the past decades and when the "cloud" future came, they simply missed it. Not to mention the total lack of connection between the upper mgmt caring only for their bonuses and the actual workers who "deliver" then end product in terms of services for their customers. Because when you deliver a service - your greatest asset are the people doing it. Greed is good ..but not always.

[@cricbuzz1123]

Straightforward and honest analysis. Thank you.

[@yyy1735]

Thank you for analysing IBM

[@j.r.8773]

Food for thought.......why isn’t anyone talking about how IBM leads the industry in U.S. patents for computing and AI (9,262)? They made it clear the direction they’re leading towards in cloud data and service/storage provider, ex purchasing “RedHat” and “Nordcloud” past year. Not to mention the other markets they want to tap in like cloud healthcare services by purchasing “Truven Health Analytics”. New CEO promoted, need a team of engineers and visionaries to pivot company. They look like they’re setting themselves up. It’s a stretch I know but how awesome would it be if they hired Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square team?!? 🤯

[@sc358.]

I hope anyone long here knows more tha Jim Chanos. I don't short anything but it's an immediate pass in my book. There are so many easier things out there. Fairfax, Black Stone Minerals (BSM for those wondering which one), Dimond Hill Investment Group... if you want to bet on what could be then there are also things like Nintendo, Schwab, Twitter and a bunch of little things if you are willing to flip over rocks (perhaps like Immunoprecise and Mind Technology). There are special situations out there, just so many other things I'd rather buy or hold that I'm already long.

[@sc358.]

Just watch it be like a 5 bagger and I look really stupid... wouldn't be the first time.

[@a.a.productions7027]

im buying if the management is completely changed. only then is it a good buy imo

[@sonix5472]

I'd like to know more about the credentials of the new CEO and so far I'm not liking that he has been at IBM for so long. What new perspective is he going to bring to turn things around?

[@justinshearer8180]

If you look at the revenues you'll see the cloud portion is rapidly growing it was just very small percentage of the overall business but it is growing rapidly also they are the leaders in blockchain technology which is exploding this will bring more revenue down the pipeline

[@Theo_Sot_9360]

If IBM gets more pounded it is certainly a buy and hold for 3-5 yrs tenor. The model is the same the market for cloud exist , competition also exists but the dividends will keep up coming and i believe we could see a rebound.

[@fixingstufftv453]

Good review. IBM has been horribly mismanaged by a bunch of leaches. They never should have sold their laptop division. I'm still gambling on IBM because of the patents they hold, especially regarding nano technology. IBM recently produced the first nano chips, huge breakthrough. We'll see if new management can turn this company around.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@j.m.r.f6286]

Thank you, gracia's.

[@Value-Investing]

Thank you too!

[@joezawinulreviewsandreacti2509]

Don't forget to check out what Chanos says about it. he thinks they're doing some funny stuff and that they're propping it up with some financial engineering and he's short

[@MapAtlass]

Looks very risky 😱

[@edevans6508]

Love your vids, Sven! Please analyze ARKK and ARK Invest as a whole. Thanks and keep sharing your well researched insights.

[@vvolfflovv]

the insider buying as of late could point to a turning point. the question is, how much of a turning point if any?

[@Allen-L-Canada]

Sven, it is interesting to see you opening up the guts of a terrible company. This is a good example of a horrible company with a great price and dividend.

[@711-v3k]

Not my type of odds, good work Sven, we can do better

[@davidsheff6280]

I like your comparison of IBM and the S&P long term and shorter. It also goes to show how so much depends on the context of comparison. IBM is obviously not a present day tech darling. Yet, I can’t help but get the feeling that with their massive resources, IBM is just one good move away from getting back their mojo. Kind of like how Microsoft was practically reborn when Nadella took to the helm. Maybe just wishful thinking 🤔.

[@evni6208]

Nice analysis Sven not sure if it is for don't like turnarounds that much.

[@nunobartolo2908]

IBM has been signing up hospitals for the Watson cross referencing diagnostics that will have a huge moat and network effects as more cases analysed means better diagnostics they also have the true north neuromorphic chip which will be adopted in robotics the common chips of today have a huge bottle neck in the databus between the memory and logic unit and aren’t fast enough for real time robotics (neuromorphic architectures will require new compilers and programming languages which will give another ecosystem moat to a first mover like ibm)

[@VaskoGG]

Thank you for the great content Sven, i have been following you for a while. I consider IBM as an value trap, exited the position one year ago, not worth it for me. There are better value picks in the tech sector - CISCO systems, Intel and MSFT. I would love it if you do a video for cisco systems. Thanks !

[@stevenupton7825]

i bought in at $101 around march april , i m more confident than say a company like Anfi for instance

[@Nobody23135]

just in time, thank you!

[@mlangland]

Sven is way smarter than I am, but I took a chance on IBM a year ago. I lucked out. It's up 20%. Of course, it's all on paper. Should I sell?

[@Value-Investing]

I have no idea, haven't been following!

[@mlangland]

@@Value-Investing no worries. I love your work. Have a good one.

[@hoodrychq5470]

Interesting thought process

[@nicoanastasio3141]

awesome video, I believe a much better bluechip stock in this sector would be Intel, especially at this price, what do you think?

[@winstonsmith2079]

He did a video on it 3 months ago - kzbin.info/www/bejne/hGjKqn2Jbsilr6M

[@nicoanastasio3141]

@@winstonsmith2079 seen it bought it :)

[@tamanousJP]

Love your work. However, maybe you should always use SEC filings for the numbers in your videos, instead of trusting the company marketing materials?

[@Value-Investing]

good point!

[@hoodrychq5470]

Thank you Sven

[@jupitereye4322]

That graph... "when everyone hated it for a decade"... but today the price of IBM share is lower than peak 1999 price. So we are talking about 23 years. The only problem is their debt to asset ratio. Nothing else seems to be an issue. On the other hand, banks love companies that are huge, such as IBM, who will continue to pay off the interest on those debts for the next 5-10 years at least. I am really bullish on IBM, the only problem is that I am more currently attracted to Intel, a few energy stocks, and a couple of REITs.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@islamicsolution5618]

Please let me guide where to buy IBM stock market

[@Value-Investing]

???

[@IIjorisII]

investing is not about the past, it's about the future. But with a track record like this, and no great catalysts. I don't see why the future would be better. It could do ok, but there are better options out there.

[@mikesharp986]

To me this looks a bit like Microsoft in the period of 2000-2014 where Steve Ballmer basically sat on the Windows cash cow and did nothing with the company to add any value or growth. When they hired Nadella, he was the catalyst needed to bring in new ideas and growth. IBM may have this potential as well with Krishna after a bad period with Ginni. Having a big moat business is a great foundation for a CEO to work from. And for bonus points, the spinoff could add serious value as well as a different CEO will head up the new enterprise and bring other ideas to the game. (full disclosure: I love spinoffs)

[@Value-Investing]

I think MSFT's culture and IBM's are different at the core!

[@mikesharp986]

@@Value-Investing Could be. I don't know about the culture from where i am sitting. All i see is a tech savvy, growth oriented CEO in after a corporate clown out. Probably it is more complicated than that

[@filippxx]

Now you got your 2020 earnings, BOOM, your analysis is confirmed, situation looks ugly! IBM is going down the drain fast, I think it's the only company in the cloud market which didn't grow in the pandemics. Rometti buybacks really buried the company instead of riding the cloud wave with innovation. Now it's too late, AWS, Azure and GCP are ages ahead.

[@Value-Investing]

I am not happy, it is never nice to see a company not do well!

[@atanasmilenkov9962]

Gret video as always, Sven, much appreciated! Was wondering about your thoughts on Cisco and AT&T? Perhaps you can do a similar video on one of these :)

[@Value-Investing]

did the analysis on Cisco but no video :-(

[@ДимитърДюлгеров-д9е]

Thanks Sven

[@paultweedley2026]

Sven, Jim Chanos interview on 3rd December, he see's irregular practices in accounting and predicted earnings , he only see's a downward trend and l believe he is shorting IBM 🤨

[@simplemoney_ch]

Jim Chanos also shorting Tesla

[@thor9563]

..in 2021...WTF IS A BUSINESS MACHINE???? Probly like a buggy whip in 1900.

[@Viper4ever05]

Getting paid millions to sink a company, being CEO sounds easy, I think I'll do it too.

[@thor9563]

..in 2021...WTF IS A BUSINESS MACHINE???? Probly like a buggy whip in 1900.

[@fleis670]

Hey, what about Lowe’s and Home Depot? Ps see intel rally 😍

[@tawlguy123]

I have been looking at Salesforce especially since they bought slack I think they are undervalued now

[@IIjorisII]

by what metrics are they undervalued? I think it's a fantastic business.. but undervalued?

[@thor9563]

..in 2021...WTF IS A BUSINESS MACHINE???? Probly like a buggy whip in 1900.

[@JohnDemetriou]

Do investors automatically get stocks of newCo?

[@Value-Investing]

yes

[@ianworthington2324]

I suspect 90% of cc txs going through IBM hw is because Visa, AX, and MC use it. Just 3 companies. IBM is not really a tech company but an accountancy business. Amazon is hiring ibm mainframe staffers to move those big cos to the cloud.

[@تومريتشاردز]

I own it for about a year and a half. I haven't added anything to my position this year.

[@lakatosjuraj]

im not sure if ibm bought red hat or is it the other way around.

[@AverageAngel]

CEO pay went up 10x in 10 years even though company revenue and net income are down in that time. Is this a joke?

[@andreit6114]

Great insight

[@louisaparker]

How about blockchain technology? I've read that IBM is one of the leading developers of blockchain currently. Perhaps that will bring some new life into the company.

[@Guron90]

Sven sees how they squeezed chanos on tsla and now he wants in on this new short squeeze.

[@glx484]

Thanks for the great content, Sven. What are your go-to analysts when you look for analyst opinions?

[@Value-Investing]

all of them - I get as many opinions as I can, then I make my own!

[@potomacXX]

No mention on Jim Chanos short thesis... Sven losing his pedantic touch?

[@Value-Investing]

tomorrow:-)

[@MatthiWare]

I 100% agree

[@joezawinulreviewsandreacti2509]

Thoughts on GME GameStop. I know it's a bit small but there is a lot going on there

[@Drift0x]

GameStop is Dead. Digital gaming content platforms for videogames will kill physical retails

[@ecchen1]

@@Drift0x they r in digital

[@Drift0x]

@@ecchen1 not comparable to Steam, Origin, Ubisoft, Microsoft...

[@dave7mm083]

Good call. Stay away. Short-seller Jim Chanos says there's some financial engineering inside IBM. See his Bloomberg discussion with Scarlet Fu, Dec 3, 2020.

[@jeffberg7490]

The sad tale of the past two decades: so many mega cap companies destroying value and putting the company at risk by going into DEBT to do share buybacks.

[@web2yt488]

After your last video I considered it. I think they will lose the cloud chip market (or a fair degree of it with the ARM eats the world hypothesis)

[@elrevesyelderecho]

13:42 all changes that IBM have were put in the bin after your face expression. Even that yellow area, I was thinking to buy some stocks and keep it for one/two year...but, you make me doubt. To be honest. I thought, I had it on list. Saw your video and it was a double check. I will buying tomorrow for sure. But, know...i just think it could be a good idea just to put money there one year waiting that Yield and done.

[@Value-Investing]

that is investing - it is about what fits you

[@elrevesyelderecho]

@@Value-Investing I changed my mind after your video the next day. IBM it is a good looking girl with toxic past that will affect the relationship

[@jk-ml5fb]

Unity Stock! U , i am up 100%

[@unktzor]

Awesome, gonna watch this one soon since I was looking for a recent video on IBM

[@potatofrogs5999]

It would be a good buy on 60$.

[@RipMachine1]

2 of my friends worked in Brno office of IBM both quit, terrible mismanagement inside the company half of the people don’t know what they are doing or are supposed to do, avoid it at all cost i see no future for the company.

[@pcas2973]

Sven will you give me a Diageo analysis for christmas?

[@SergiMedina]

Thank God I sold earlier this year!

[@lorenzmuller3542]

I'm going with Xerox instead. :)

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@lorenzmuller3542]

@@Value-Investing lol

[@hodoprime]

Deleveraging companies usually dont beat the market.

[@winstonluo975]

agree, for me, I will prefer AT&T rather than IBM at this stage.

[@extramild1]

IBM's market cap about the same as Zoom - think about that for a moment.

[@Value-Investing]

tells more about Zoom than IBM

[@thor9563]

..in 2021...WTF IS A BUSINESS MACHINE???? Probly like a buggy whip in 1900.

[@zgreg427]

Why listen to people who can't beat the average? Nobody shows their performance against SPY because nobody beats it consistently. Buy index funds unless you have a track record of beating index.,,which most don't.

[@Value-Investing]

will make a video!

[@jnaugy1074]

I'm with you, I'll take a hard pass.

[@webentwicklungmitrobinspan6935]

i wounder why everyone seems to agree on ibm beeing bad, when they are clearly a cash printing machine after their restructuring.. huh where is the risk here?

[@elrevesyelderecho]

Come on! Last week I put on my "to buy" list IBM. No one is talking about it and though I found a hidden gem. High Dividend...go for it! BTW I haven't seen the video. Those are my reaction to read the title. Let's see.

[@Value-Investing]

enjoy

[@kal2352]

I'm so surprised that the management team can get paid so much for such terrible performance. It's a solid no for sure.

[@thor9563]

..in 2021...WTF IS A BUSINESS MACHINE???? Probly like a buggy whip in 1900.