Intelligence Analysis Skills: An Example of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

[@jimgar8855]

Can you do a few more examples using this hypothesis testing technique?

[@BrianUrlacherPoliSci]

I'll try to come up with something presentable. When I teach this I use the USS Iowa case in Jones' The Thinker's Tool kit (which is where I pull the baker case). The USS Iowa case is way more complex but has a "right" answer. I also teach this with a bunch of fabricated data on Iran's Nuclear program mixed in with some declassified reports. The rub is that their is no known "right" answer and the data itself is utterly useless at arriving at an answer. Honestly I think this is the most important kind of training, but it is really hard to present to folks...its kind of something you just need to muddle through. But, yes, I need to generate a couple more of these as there seems to be a lot of interest.

[@jimgar8855]

@@BrianUrlacherPoliSci GREAT!!! thanks for the reply

[@skellingtonmeteoryballoon]

but its not technically the case then, its cases. this course disregards Potential outliers which always require further investigation. special data points may be errors or some kind of abnormality or they may be a key to understanding the data.

[@loveandthunder2928]

This now youtube ui is bad I don't like it, where is classic red button for subscribe it's now white, huh