Inventory floods the market: Epic entry point, or worst time to buy?

Yeah, the title is a little click-baity, but less so than I'd like. The amount and type of vintage inventory continuing to flood the markets tells me "diamond hands" are leaving the hobby. What does that mean for #MTGFinance short term and long term? Let's think about it together.
#MagicTheGathering #LimitedEditionAlpha #FUD
**
I'm Mike, the Alpha Hoarder, and I'm sharing/documenting my wild collection here on YT. Join me while I ramble about old cards and MTG finance, and look at cool stuff.
[e-mail]
Mike the AlphaHoarder @ 375 Carlls Path #73, Deer Park NY 11729

[@poxpower]

Don't forget: 5-10% inflation for 2 years also. Any card that stayed the same price in the last two years actually dropped 10-15%

[@AlphaHoarder]

Really good point!

[@rogueinvestor2375]

Spot on.

[@bryanhuber3554]

For me this is what I love to see- as a collector investor PLAYER I am thrilled to see people with no love for the game selling their old sealed boxes. I am a draftoholic and I am part of a vintage play group that specializes in drafting old sets 1996-2004 mostly. Being able to buy boxes of these sets between $1,000-5,000 is wonderful. We don't draft these boxes for the financial value we draft because we love the game and these sets and it's a way to relive our childhoods. I hope the market will stabilize for the financial stability but overall I just want to draft Mirage Tempest Exodus and Urza's block.

[@AlphaHoarder]

That’s awesome, love hearing people taking advantage of the market in that way!

[@richarddefilippo3076]

Yes Magic 30 was an indeed a betrayal- It crushed my enthusiasm- now I just buy singles for commander.

[@AlphaHoarder]

No doubt. I believe betrayals can be atoned for, but it would require Hasbro taking some extraordinary steps that do not seem to be on their current radar. Guess we’ll see 🤷‍♂️

[@themisprintguy]

A recent problem too is that I can go buy bonds that pay 6-8%. I think many whales that had no real attachment to the game but only saw it as an investment, are leaving. Used to be difficult to park your money to earn a safe return. Now, if I didn’t care about the game but could safely park my money elsewhere? Of course I’d leave. Don’t worry, it’s the non passionate that are leaving. It’s happened to all collectibles recently. I have old baseball cards and everyone just in it for the money is leaving.

[@AlphaHoarder]

That definitely could be 🧐

[@59thsurvivorofvhs]

Bank of America Bashing like a Rocky Movie LOL

[@HendersonHinchfinch]

With all due respect, what are you talking about in regards to baseball cards? The people with money are the ones who are staying. It’s the casuals they killed off

[@themisprintguy]

The ones who are only there as a profit motive. Not the people who are genuine collectors. Plenty of people just saw dollar signs, they are gone.

[@obelisk9116]

Amazing seeing so many alpha lightning bolts in one space. Collecting unlimited versions at the moment. Love the art work and playability.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Unlimited bolt is a beautiful one!

[@timhill6735]

I've always wondered how some of the bigger collectors could ever cash out.

[@NeoN-PeoN]

Ideally, they'd cash out very slowly. In the end, though, they can always quick-sell to Rudy at 60-65% on the dollar lol

[@christhemagnif]

Very timely topic! I just got my heritage auctions catalog in the mail and Jeff Ferreira (Chris Rush’s agent) has a large collection coming to auction. My first though was why he would be liquidating these at this point. This current environment does make me a bit nervous, but I’m still buying at the right price. Picked up Roc of Kher Ridges most recently. I’d wanted that for a long while and got a big discount. Thanks for sharing the Raging Rivers! That was bonkers 🤩

[@AlphaHoarder]

Interesting re/ Ferreira! Definitely a good time to take advantage of discounts on cards that you just want to own.

[@Alphonsoinvestments]

I luv the Think about it out loud part! XD thanks for another great video Mike!

[@whointheh3ll567]

Good shit as always. Must have been a red day as you’re wearing a red shirt too! The feel, look, vibe of ABU is just awesome.

[@richarddefilippo3076]

I always loved Raging River too! Underrated card I think in many ways.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yes!

[@jimmiploug2333]

My favorite MTG channel (along with NerdAndProudOfIt). And a ton of one of my favorite card raging river. Thx for saving my evening with this video, had a bad one up until.....

[@AlphaHoarder]

Appreciate that, and I hope your evening has improved 👍

[@Nabraham1]

Great video as always, thanks for sharing! Selling! For those sitting on a mountain of cards with dreams of selling, its a journey. I've sold about 700 cards this year (non abu/reserved list) and putting that money towards abu but i don't think most people realize the work/time/fees that go into selling. Kudos to you all that do it full time! Congrats on approaching 2k as well! Love the channel, thank you for all the content.

[@AlphaHoarder]

That’s a lot of sales! Appreciate the support 👍

[@aussieexpat]

Sorry I'm an outsider trying to understand what's going on. What's abu?

[@Nabraham1]

@@aussieexpat alpha, beta, unlimited. First sets from magic

[@aussieexpat]

@Nathan Kellett sorry to pester, what is "legends"?

[@Nabraham1]

@@aussieexpat all good bud, it's an expansion in magic. One of the first and if I remember it's the first with multi colored cards.

[@connorwills9862]

One Alpha raging river lives here lol great video my friend, thanks for taking the time to create the content. Back from south America in 2 weeks and will have some interesting personal accumulation updates for you…

[@AlphaHoarder]

Looking forward to hearing about it!

[@leeread1234]

I would love if the price dropped for x amount of years so that I could buy more as due to financial reasons my Alpha collection ( which is a paltry 12 cards lol ) will definitely grow substantially :)

[@victorbryant2791]

The lightning bolt has amazing playability which in turn causes a higher attrition rate of the NM copies. Amazing collection sir

[@AlphaHoarder]

Thanks 🙏 And yes, not only do they want multiples, those copies degrade much faster

[@andrewking5013]

26:20 "What is natural selection without some nice nipples?" I did not expect to hear that. Great video, interesting and entertaining. Edit: Added time of quote.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Thank for watching 👍

[@lechasseurdemothman]

It looks like fireworks!!! Beautiful visual...

[@AlphaHoarder]

So much red!

[@bacontator6855]

I’m in my early 30’s. My reserve list collection is worth a little over four figures, but nowhere near five. I don’t stand to inherit much, but I dollar cost average into TSLA, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ARK etfs. If any/all of those go vertical, I’ll be buying some more reserve list, even some alpha prints. I’ll even be sure to pick up some Raging Rivers 🎉

[@AlphaHoarder]

I really like TSLA in the current environment (down economy with raising interest rates, up against competitors without profitable units). People keep comparing them to other car manufacturers, without understanding the amount of significant differences between Tesla’s production, software, margins, ….. actually, best not to get me started 😂

[@adamsmitty33]

Great video thanks

[@gemmintmtg4267]

Great vid, a lot to think about. I think alpha might be more price sensitive because of the scarcity. It’s a small market so the moves are faster and more dramatic compared to the rest of the market. And likewise it only takes a few new motivated entrants to sway things back the other way

[@AlphaHoarder]

Good point!

[@brendans1983]

Not sure if you knew, but in the new Phyrexia set there is a legendary artifact creature named Graaz, The Unstoppable that is a juggernaut. Apparently it's a Leveller that just never stopped levelling Mirrodin/Phyrexia once Memnarch was killed. Pretty cool. Buuuuut, it has a static ability that turns all your other creatures into 5/3 Juggernauts that must attack each turn if able and can't be blocked by walls 👍 Juggernaut was my 2nd favourite card as a kid so this new Legend has definitely brought a smile to my face. My favourite card was Sengir Vampire, the older kids never traded their Shivan's or Serra's but i could usually get a Sengir or a Juggernaut with a good pull in a 4th edition pack 🍻

[@AlphaHoarder]

Oh nice I didn’t realize. Sengir and Serra were always two of my favorites, they felt like opposites

[@MrMlev123]

I’m not selling my vintage collection anytime soon. Unlike some I’m optimistic about the long term value of alpha beta and unlimited. Exit strategy is an entirely different discussion however and that is a concern. It will be difficult to unload a large collection and expect to get a fair value for it.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Indeed- especially if you have large positions in the same card(s). Collecting the way I do isn’t ideal for exiting. Luckily, like you, I’m not selling any time soon!

[@Road_to_Tolaria]

I really enjoyed watching your video. What eye candy! It does bring me back to organizing my boxes of cards, on my desk, bed, floor, and eventually binders. My thoughts are that playing and collecting are a spectrum and we who are here to watch and comment can all be found at some place on it. The way that you think aloud, while caretaking your collection, at either noon or midnight (either is very familiar and likely with small children) has a calm that is too often in short supply. Well thought moments can't be replaced by loud and hasty voices. So, I'll share my thought and opinion, expecting it to be unpopular with many. The generational hand-off is a very real thing, just like climate change for example. We have time to do something about it, things have started to feel warmer of late but there is still some time to make changes to the road we are on. We aren't really any more able to see the world through the eyes of future generations, than they can see through ours or we through our ancestors. The best we can hope for is a thoughtful attempt to imagine for moments. They do not have the time we had, or the isolation, they cannot feel it that, unless it is forced, because the world has changed. Their worlds are in their hands and when they look to us, they see that we agree, by where most of our eyes go, our devices. What is the relevance of paper magic, now to them, or in 10-20 years? We'd really have to try to imagine that. The world doesn't seem to have much interest in slowing down, or limiting it's lucrative distractions. I think we fucked up at with Magic 30. I think it's easy to point the finger at Hasbro, because they are such a morally repugnant company. But, I ask, what does the generation coming up see, when the old guard turns it's nose at M30 and particularly the poorly marketed 30th Anniversary Edition? They didn't live what we did, they cannot feel it how we do, by and large. For us, yes, it is a betrayal but it was also an opportunity to show people how cool the old cards are And, the surest way not to do that is to bash, boycott and take that moment to exit the market. I get why anyone would, it's my knee jerk reaction as well. Upon consideration though, I'm just sad that it went that way. It was a bit of a perfect storm, Hasbro being true cocks, a market coming off a high, and instability in the world. The last thing it needed were those $1000 boxes with 4 packs of proxies. But, to the new generations, that isn't necessarily what they saw and us shouting at it and speaking our frustration doesn't bring them closer to seeing the beauty of playing and collecting the vintage aspects of this great game. There is a moment now, to change the narrative and the direction of our course. If we don't, then we have no rudder and are akin to rats fleeing a slowly sinking ship. Thanks for prompting me to write this. I never would have thought of it tonight, as I rummaged my cards, even less likely would I have found an appropriate place to write it.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Awesome insights, thanks for such a well thought out comment!

[@Road_to_Tolaria]

@AlphaHoarder thanks man and thanks for having such a high caliber of channel, where we can discuss these types of things. I truly think Hasbro, or energy just shareholder driven management, is a cancer on Magic the Gathering. This type of management, short-term maximum profits extraction, before all these CFO's, CEO's and POS's move on the devour some other golden goose and make themselves look good for 4-5 years. Overprinting and over pricing of recent magic product, and reprinting all valuable cards is a problem. However, their most reprehensible actions have been the sustained effort to exploit artificially created scarcity to sell overpriced products and specifically this technique, combined with "lottery" cards up take advantage of those who suffer from gambling related troubles. I think that we as a community and a heritage are much stronger than Hasbro, to direct the course of the game. We need to stand together, like the D&D community has shown is possible and demand and force the future we want for this great game and culture. Hasbro has time and again demonstrated by their actions, that they have no respect for is as players, collectors or human beings. Our thoughts are viewed as obstacles to accessing our wallets. This can become a watershed moment for the community. Differences that some players and collectors have over issues are pale in comparison to the destruction of goodwill and exploitation run by Hasbro on it's many brands. We could easily put differences aside and unite for a better future and historically a mutual enemy has for time immemorial been the catalyst that unites squabbling tribes to put down an invading force. This is what Hasbro is, an invading, pillaging force, here to take what riches they can and move on when needed. They are neither a responsible or honest steward of Magic the Gathering. The best formats and policies in Magic the Gathering will always come from the people who love it, like we do. It sucks that we have to suffer this now, but leaving now, for me anyways, would be like abandoning a sick old friend. I will keep on and teach the most enjoyable parts of the game (for me) to the next generation. I guess that's the second half of my thoughts. I am financially vested in the old stuff, but I have accepted that most of what happens there will be influenced by forces larger than myself. It's younger people who I find I care about more. They should learn to play card games, strengthen strategies and their minds and have quiet things to do that don't involve screens. Plus, the joy of playing and collecting, being part of a community of excellent people has become the most rewarding thing for me. Phew, that's a long one again, take care

[@AlphaHoarder]

It would be really interesting to see magic become post-wizards 🤔

[@fudgevalley]

The magic of magic is the gathering. People these days stuck on their screens (me included) will eventually experience the magic that is when you are doing things together with someone.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Agree!

[@digitalbauble]

Nice vid bro... I am also invested in collecting it as my hobby. I only spend a part of my disposable income for it, bec. you know... it's all about the economy

[@junglerumbler6917]

I’m preparing for a lengthy valley, but I expect a resurgence somewhere down the line. Maybe 10-20 years.

[@AlphaHoarder]

🤞🤞🤞

[@FaBledHunters]

Nice video Mike! I agreed with much of it and appreciate you going into your analysis. I’m not sure which of them are correct, but I’d say that this is the worst time in history to sell Alpha, especially if you believe MTG will make it out of this tough valley in the long run!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Appreciate that 🤜🤛

[@weeblewom9513]

Excellent breakdown. I have picked up more Alpha cards in the past month than i did in the past 2 years. But I too feel the excitement/urgency waning down. Important not to go all in too quickly. Random unrelated question - when you pick up graded Alpha cards do you immediately crack most of them out of the case? It sucks to have a bunch of cards in a nice binder and a stack of slabs next to it. Divides the collection too much IMO, but I'm hesitant to crack them out when I know that when encapsulated they are the most well protected they could possibly be. Therein lies the conundrum.

[@AlphaHoarder]

If it’s an 8.5b or less I do crack it out, yes. If it’s a nicer 8.5, then it really depends on the card… I feel exactly the same as you, but I just don’t have the heart to crack nines or better. This is why I generally just don’t buy them.

[@crisgroom3857]

Always wanted to make a Jarkeld/River deck. But it's just too slow for Vintage. Always appreciate your numbers and insights.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Ohh cool combination!

[@crisgroom3857]

​@@AlphaHoarder Being an old guy, over 50, I started playing I my 20's. Most of the people I used to play with have already sold their collections years ago. There's still a few of us that have kinda absorbed them. But even still, most of us are over 50 now. We all had thoughts of just passing them down to our kids but that's gonna be just handing down a lot of work. Of my 5, none of them want them. So personally, I'm sitting on a player's collection with nobody to play. Scheduling a game day with Old Guys is nearly impossible. Lol. So not sure what I'm gonna do.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I don’t think you’re alone in that situation. And if these collections are handed off to people that don’t care about them personally, they’re just going to end up on the market anyway. 🤔🤔

[@Alphonsoinvestments]

I love the Raging River. I am Raging for a copy!

[@NeoN-PeoN]

I'm always pleased when the market goes down. You can buy if you like or not, but, it's very healthy for markets to boom and bust. They always need to bust.

[@AlphaHoarder]

True… The cycles are a necessary way to make sure prices remain connected to fundamentals

[@NeoN-PeoN]

@@AlphaHoarder I bet most people my age are chomping at the bit for that housing market to bust.

[@monkey39128]

40 minutes! Brilliant!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Outlined for 15m 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[@weeblewom9513]

​@AlphaHoarder For what it's worth, the longer the video the more excited I am to watch it!

[@teamcosmicseeds]

I'm no 🐳 just became a smart investor. I don't own many alpha cards overall like I told you 4 maybe 5 total. 0 rares. 2 uncommons. I really love raging river too. The most of a card that is rare I own more than anyone in mtg hoarding existence is: 7x SIGNED TEXTLESS MANA LEAK BY CHRISTOPHER RUSH! I've been hoarding a few odd mtg things too of previous unknown existence 😂 or at least I haven't seen anywhere

[@AlphaHoarder]

Ohhh nice! Anything singed by Christopher Rush will age very well, I dare say. I’d love to know some of your other oddities 👀

[@teamcosmicseeds]

@@AlphaHoarder possible videos coming but I just may display a few at magic 30 in September for a few videos with other content creators like yourself!

[@reviewmirror591]

I'm a new collector, got in to modern a year ago, played some in the ninties, when ice age came out. I love old cards and alpha in particular, bought a nice ice age complete set for about $160, (great value although the printrun is high) and have about 50 alpha commons and uncommons. I actually have the feeling that commons and uncommons might hold their value better. Of corse power 9 for example are iconic, but they are so insanely overpriced, so extremely few normal people can afford them. And to invest that amount of money is not something many would do. The commons have some things going for them, for one it's the cards people remember playing with. So many will buy for that reason, two they are extremely affordable compared to the iconic cards so almost everyone can afford them, (me included), though i don't have much money, so i can buy maybe two a month and still invest in more stalbe investments for my future. Three: They are still Alphas! Just as much as a black lotus! So everyone who plays magic and has heard about Alpha can buy a couple to just have some alphas in their collections, I know people who has alphas but I know noone who has a powernine. So I buy commons for fun because thats the only ones i can afford, and maybe that is the entry for many collectors in the future.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Good point. At the very least, liquidity might be higher for commons

[@vivienz9339]

I always enjoy you sharing your rational, collected point of view. I also don't feel great about where the market and overall interest in MtG is headed. Do you have an exemple of any other collectible asset that saw interest transfered to the next few generations?

[@AlphaHoarder]

It’s a good question. I don’t know any that are are quite what magic is, but there are a variety of categories that have transitioned into mature long-term collectibles. Sports cards and memorabilia are an obvious example, as is numismatics and art. On the pop culture side, I also think Pokémon has demonstrated a successful recapture across generations, but you can also find examples in comic books and vinyl records and things like this. I don’t consider myself an expert in any of those, and I’m not sure the jury is in 100% on any of those long-term either. Magic isn’t quite purely pop-culture, because if it’s game side, and it’s not quite like art or sports, either.

[@vivienz9339]

​@@AlphaHoarder Yeah I agree. There are some similarities with the ones you mention, but I think Magic still remains pretty unique: it's a staple of the counter culture in the 90ies, not necessary of the pop culture I'd say. Looking forward to watching your next video!

[@alvinwai86]

I believe your assessment accurate. Folks/ 🐳 discretely exiting 😢

[@fourkeepsgaming]

Crazy or not Bro that pile of rivers is beautiful. I don't do that anymore because of funds, back in the day I did, I had 30ish og sorceress queens in the 90's but never thought that was bad as my roommate had around 500 Lord of Atlantis from various sets lol.

[@fourkeepsgaming]

Also the card a month is awesome, I should've done that over the last few years lol, I usually get a handful of cash and buy a handful of stuff then need money so sell and buy again later and sell again when I have to lol, trying to break that cycle and hold on to stuff

[@AlphaHoarder]

That’s a very common cycle I hear from people, and they pretty much always wish they hadn’t sold lol. Real life has its demands, however.

[@fourkeepsgaming]

@@AlphaHoarder no doubt and whether I get more than I paid or not I always have sellers remorse lol. It's my cycle because I spend more than I should at one time, if I'd done your card a month it may not have went that way

[@penguinlust6749]

I made the mistake of selling off my excess Alphas long ago -- before Alpha was tournament legal again. I never hoarded, but I have substantial positions because I built play sets of everything. So given I've been holding this stuff for almost 30 years, and well, that means I'm 30 years older and I have to look at an eventual exit strategy. So I'm following this discussion closely. I agree with you -- Magic 30 did more damage than most people realize -- the only comparable event in the game's history is Chronicles (again, as you noted), and that wasn't a deliberately destructive attempt at a cash grab like Magic 30 was. The fact it's going into the dumpster doesn't help -- it should never have been printed. Have we hit the bottom yet? On the newer stuff -- no -- and that's what worries me. If that doesn't get fixed, we're done. If it does, the old stuff will be fine. So WotC/Hasbro's management of the game matters to all of us with substantial collections, even if we're no longer active in the game. Time to ditch Project Booster Fun and Blueprint 2.0. Great video as always. Just don't expect me to bake cookies -- there are laws against that😜

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah the intent really matters. I wonder if Wizards was able to apologize properly back then because they genuinely meant no harm. This time not so much

[@BigHitCards]

catching that falling knife

[@junglerumbler6917]

Nice Earthbinds

[@melloboyz805]

I think one more factor to consider as a potential possibility is if Hasbro is forced to sell wizards and it gets picked up by a company who manages it correctly. In the same fashion Nintendo did when they bought Pokémon when it was first on the decline. I do however think it’s far more likely people loose interest and either migrate to other cgcs or into other hobbies all together. More than just pricing, and over printing of everything, and coming from a person who has played since onslaught, the game play itself isn’t fun anymore. The mechanics are lack luster. Cards are over powered etc. And lastly, the fact wizards prints new sets like every month, kids don’t ever get to enjoy a set and build memories with them. I don’t think modern sets will be appreciated 10 years from now the way us old farts enjoyed silver/gold aged sets. The nostalgic factor just won’t be there

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah … some hard realities in that comment. It could be solved, but odds are against them and they’re facing the wrong direction currently.

[@melloboyz805]

Sadly it feels politically motivated. The direction of the company feels like a coordinated downfall. The purpose of any company is to Manley money. So why would they intentionally loose money with their questionable decisions. Nobody is that incompetent. If you are curious look into the backgrounds of Chris Cox and other uppers at Hasbro. Very suspicious

[@petermalaspina756]

CK may have additional supply, but have you noticed they jacked prices in the past three weeks?Like 20-30% on many of the $2-5k cards. Very strange to see if there is indeed more product hitting the market, especially because it means their buy lists have gone up too. Maybe they are raising prices on their retail site to support some offloading via auction? But that doesn’t really make much sense given the eBay fees.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I didn't realize they'd adjusted prices up. Perhaps they want to hold that inventory through the downturn. Interesting -- I'll have to keep an eye on this!

[@atunga5]

I like raging river (and all the other ones) .. I am sure many more of your followers do

[@adrianemerson2295]

What type of cookies? For some reason, I feel like you're a peanut butter cookie guy, but maybe a classic chocolate chip? I'm also super interested in the follow-up on leaving gracefully!

[@AlphaHoarder]

I’m fairly non discriminatory in my cookie consumption, lol. The quick answer on graceful exits is: very slowly and understanding that some positions aren’t ‘unwindable’ (100+ Jumps, for example 😬)

[@TheTugenukem]

Im wondering what do you think about collectors edition? Nice black borders, price is way less, even tho they not tournament legal, but in collecting point of view? I just started to collect these, even tho i do have some case alpha collected (9 and up), but the price of these are still quite good, all tho if you want p9 they quite high priced. So called regular rares are in ok price range and if want to look at those nice cards for nostalgia like i do, i think they do their job well.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I enjoy those cards, and as a collector, I think they’re beautiful. On the finance end, I feel the upside is limited to the very playable cards and the high grade slabs.

[@skurai]

Good talk

[@mattgrey2]

Hi AlphaHorder, I have question: Do you know if the normal surgery handgloves do any damage to mtg cards? like toxic or acid? My whole collection is in this perfect fit sleves and I want to change it to those you prefered in your other video.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I’ve never heard of the gloves doing any damage like that just from brief contact, just make sure they aren’t powdered.

[@mattgrey2]

@@AlphaHoarder Thank you very much for the answer and thank you for your great work for the mtg fans!

[@jacobbraun8737]

33/1080 = 3% of the initial print run of Raging River, thats awesome!

[@AlphaHoarder]

💪💪😁

[@hermodnitter3902]

And then only 500 of those exist today, so make it 6 %

[@IneptCardCollector]

As someone who's brand new to the MTG space, this is s very obviously polarized community of those who love the way the game used to be and still play, and also those who have fallen out of love for it for various reasons and still occasionally check in on it like an ex on Facebook. For me, i love it because i have zero FOMO, no danger of emotional investing, etc.

[@AlphaHoarder]

For some reason youtube flagged your comment - sorry for the late reply! You’re quite right, there are divides in the hobby, some along the lines you noted, some along other lines. I suppose that’s natural in such a large community. If you can avoid fomo, you’ll be in good shape 👍

[@IneptCardCollector]

@@AlphaHoarder my biggest problem is putting so much time into learning what sets were good and what ones were bad, from an investing standpoint. It's like trying to memorize restaurant menus.

[@aussieexpat]

Do we have metrics on the health of the current game?

[@AlphaHoarder]

I haven’t seen very recent numbers, but it is worth digging around 🤔

[@81lazy]

Side note 38:16 : the void sticker did not work on that Lich eBay purchase

[@AlphaHoarder]

Oh yeah lol, I had to rewatch but you’re right, didn’t leave a mark!

[@CrosswaIk]

You always have the most useful thought experiments. I think a lot of people felt burned over the last 2 years but I don't know that it will translate into the mass exodus that I think it maybe should have. For the first time in maybe 15-20 years I have more money in vintage Magic/Wizard's/TCG accessories than I do in actually Magic cards or sealed products. I don't feel great about the direction of WOTC in terms of bleeding their IP's to death or the future of Hasbro as a functioning company. Toys are already a dubious sort of market and I'm not sure the next generation will look at nostalgia like millennials do. If you're in your 40's right now and a dweeb like a lot of us are, you're able to buy everything from your childhood, and that's been extremely (ramping up over the last 25 years) popular for about the last 10 years. I just don't see zoomers looking back in 15-20 years and finding the same level of 'I've gotta have it' for overall vacuous/shallow items from their childhood. I understand nostalgia is powerful but there's more to that than buying up Ninja turtles action figures just because you remember them. I see (or maybe I'd just like to) a future where people trim down how much 'shit' they can cram in a home that they can't afford. Thats even if homes ever become affordable to the next generation. I have a room in my home which my wife coequally refers to as my "Goering room" (grim but effective terminology), which basically translates into a room full of art, collectibles and things that I'll never really display or use, NRFB has been my motto since I was 12. Whenever I feel like I've gone too far or I'm feeling too bloated and covetous, I watch a Star Wars collection tour and see how bad I could get. All of this is to say that these cards are going to need to go somewhere in the next 20 years and I see more going to fewer than larger collections being spread out. Magic 30 really killed me but it was just the last straw for me in a lot of ways. I still really love vintage cards and accessories but I'm really soured to the point where I'd rather put my money somewhere else, like Sorcery tcg at the moment 😄

[@AlphaHoarder]

Good insights, and good points. The technology shift really might make nostalgia from my day incomparable to nostalgia from the current younger generation. You might be right about physical things meaning a little bit less when most of their childhood memories are digital. It really will be a numbers game. Is it a net influx or an outflux from the collecting side of the hobby…?

[@CrosswaIk]

​@@AlphaHoarder I really have to imagine we see fewer people going towards these kinds of things in the future. One of your best points and one that can't be understated is where and when will the generational transfer happen. I mean, 30 years from now, all of this stuff needs to go somewhere and even now I know I'm not going to want to hang onto 99% of my parents things so where will my collections go. I always joke when I buy some expensive thing I'm collecting that the next person to look at it will be some orderly in a state run facility just before they chuck it into a dumpster 🤣 My friends and I collected everything growing up and that seems to be what a lot of companies were playing in to at the time but I really wonder what our kids will look back to when they get older.

[@AlphaHoarder]

@@CrosswaIk Hard agree on that. Pokemon, as a brand, seems to have worked this out better and is continuing to capture new audiences. It would be interesting to see Hasbro/Wizards solve this. If they don't, the writing is on the wall as you've outlined it.

[@patmacrotch5611]

Raging River probably wasn’t ever really played, which means most copies are probably NM

[@honigson8776]

Crazy

[@callmethreeone]

I am just getting back into the game after retiring, I am guessing now is a good time to buy dual lands?

[@AlphaHoarder]

It’s the best pricing we’ve seen in years, particularly for raw stuff. Obviously I don’t know if prices will drop further tomorrow, but for cards you want to own investment notwithstanding, it might be a good time to pickup some cardboard!

[@callmethreeone]

@@AlphaHoarder Thank you for doing these videos and being responsive. I played only a short time as a child, I shipped off and never played again so it is very foreign to me. Thank you for the time and effort you put into making these videos, I know it isn't easy all the time. Have an awesome day !

[@lylejobe8252]

I believe that there are only a few sellers but they are certainly people who have very large positions.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I am aware of a handful of people moving who I would not have expected to move, but beyond that, I can only speculate. You may well be right. As I mentioned in the video, I personally know some collectors who could decide to downsize their exposure by say 15%, and be responsible for all of this single-handedly. Not saying that’s what’s going on, but I do think you could be right

[@TripsAhoy]

The only time I don't like a red raging river is once a month! ;) I'll see myself out lol.

[@AlphaHoarder]

😂🤣

[@phillyortho]

It's a logical decision. If you have a large inventory, offloading excess when you can getting 6% in interest on cash risk-free makes sense. Offload some before the chance of Hasbro outright breaking the reserve list and making playable versions of reserved list cards. You can bet they want to reprint Arabian Nights/Antiquities/Legends in some fashion like with proxy backs. Current Hasbro management has shown they could care less about collectors and want to extract as much money from the secondary market as possible. Until the Cox is removed and Wizards comes out with a new reserved list announcement, collectors will be skittish. I know I stopped making Arabian Nights sets as I have better places to park money now. I'm guessing it won't appreciate 6% a year.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Very true. Collectibles are much less appealing as a pure investment instrument right now. I actually have less concerns about Hasbro re-printing those other horsemen sets… There’s honestly only a handful of cards per set that are worth anything. But I could see them reprinting all kinds of “collectible” variations on the dual ends for the next decade, if it were up to Cox. So yeah, in agreement on that.

[@MattcasterMage]

Great thoughts on the matter. I do believe it's a generational exit for most. But we'll have to see how the younger generations react because Wizards needs to do a better job at growing the brand (Netflix show, comics, toys, and films) It needs to be more than just game. The next few years will be crucial for the hobby.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I absolutely agree. They need to stop milking the damn cow and do some work on the pasture.

[@atunga5]

not sure I see why it should be "more than a game" . netflix? comics? how would you see that helping

[@AlphaHoarder]

The way I see it, there are very few avenues to introduce new players to the game. Considering how popular it is, that’s strange to me. Pokémon is a fine example of how to make an IP have a mass appeal across multiple age groups, and this inevitably generates interest in their brand. I feel there’s a lot more wizards, or Hasbro could do in this regard.

[@tartuffethespry]

*Good Netflix show, comics, toys, and films). They need to throw down serious money and get a big time show producer/director. No half-assed attempts. Either do it right or don't do it.

[@ipsyop]

@@atunga5 for an example of why a well done MTG show could be good for the game, look at what Arcane did for League of Legends, it's basically advertising also MTG has some sick lore.

[@azendantforces1897]

My main concern is the increasing quality of counterfeits

[@AlphaHoarder]

And quality 😬

[@Benjamin-ol4jx]

Its old school players and dealers that will crush the market. They accumulated their piles at prices that are maybe 1/50 to 1/100 peak prices. 1993-2004 wasn't that long ago. USD was roughly only worth twice as much in 1993 vs today.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah the buying power was incredible

[@mennosoethout6462]

9.5 graded Alpha copy available if you want to upgrade 😊

[@AlphaHoarder]

Possibly! Shoot me an email. I nearly did just that with another viewer last week, but the numbers didn’t line up. 😅

[@connorwills9862]

A a licensed psychotherapist who specializes in working with kids, I'd like to leave a follow up comment on the points around @32:00. While it's definitely true that kids are more into their phones today, it amazes me how many of them have an intuitive sense that the phone/social media normalcy is anything but healthy. I've taught plenty of kids how to play MTG in session and they take to it like a fish to water (same goes for encouraging hiking and other non-tech related interests and hobbies). My point in a nutshell is that if current players take the time to show the kids of today how to play and share their passion for collecting, and if Hasbro keeps their shit together, I believe that there is hope for a resurgence of interest in trading card games and other nostalgic hobbies. My 2 cents!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Great to hear that’s still in there! Now we just need Hasbro to get behind the damn wheel 😩

[@waaaghboss64]

Juggy is playable, biggest downside is he's in range of getting dunked on by lightning bolt, where su chi can shrug it off.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Ah yeah, makes sense.

[@aza1479]

Got my doppelgänger so beautiful and earthbind in unlimited the color is so rich. I played my first game of shiv at age 40 so no nastalgia but I was around Collecting as a kid in93 just not in magic

[@AlphaHoarder]

Oh interesting, what other stuff were you collecting at the time?

[@aza1479]

@@AlphaHoarder X-men cards looking for the holograms. I remember going to card shops at age 11 in Virginia as a kid all the time.

[@aza1479]

In 1993

[@AlphaHoarder]

Ohh nice! Loved the lgs’s in those days when you never knew what you might find

[@Possu81]

I thought during 2018 that we might have seen the pinnacle of the prices in mtg cards but then came covid. Now it's even more possible but not obvious whatsoever. Even if we have seen the all time highs that doesn't mean prices will crash or we see a crash and some upticks after that. The thing that people still play with old cards kinda protects cards a bit for most violent crashes imo.

[@AlphaHoarder]

True, there’s some functional utility in there that can’t disappear as long as the game is played

[@lozkko]

No one plays old cards. I am on OS player in the UK, there are maybe 50 half serious players in the country, outside London it is almost impossible to meet in person to play. Sure, some demand for P9 and staples from old school players, but is there player demand behind say an Island of Wak Wak being 200-250 USD? Or did players' demand cause Argovian Archeologist, a card almost never seen in competitive decks, to rise four fold since Covid? With Legends, where you have "double" the supply (Eng + IT), the position is even more ludicrous

[@Possu81]

@@lozkko Obviously for not those cards but cards like Birds of Paradise, duals, p9, Juzam Djinn, howling mine, Icy manipulator etc are widely played. There are solid old school scenes almost in every country. It's obvious that ability for those groups to absorb wide inventories/collections is ridiculously shallow if large stocks enter the market which we didn't anticipate, even few months ago. Players also tend to look for the most affordable copy on the market. That segment is one of those rare things that's organic in the hobby. Then there are collectors in mtg also that want to fulfil their sets but if not go there outside this realm I believe mtg/pokemon cards are handled too much as stocks currently which also has side effects like buy outs, corporate greed (for some companies: "that's OUR card that is sold on secondary markets"), crazy spikes/crashes (haven't seen crashes yet much but feature must be there).

[@fourkeepsgaming]

47 Earthbind wow

[@jackshelton6918]

Lotta wotc products in the ground in TX been happening for years.

[@greengopher2354]

If people weren't selling in 20/21 when prices were at all time highs but are selling now does that indicate it's a financial decision? I can't see alot of Alpha collectors who don't need money selling now because they were upset up MTG 30

[@AlphaHoarder]

I can only speculate. I’ve run into a few that fall into that category, but it’s hard for me to know if that’s a sampling bias or a larger trend 🤷‍♂️

[@patmacrotch5611]

When Rudy makes statements about this is up or this is down… he is mainly just talking about LGS buylist prices.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Ah, that makes sense

[@EdwintheMagicEngineer]

@@AlphaHoarder yep, that comment is true

[@TheTugenukem]

Where you get this much money to keep buying these?

[@AlphaHoarder]

It’s been a long road to get here! Started a software business many years ago, then a realestate business, and eventually they both grew to be profitable. Now I’m fortunate enough to get to do this 🙂

[@tartuffethespry]

My outlook is that Magic will trade sideways for the next 5-10 years. I am holding cash and trying my damnedest to have discipline with what I buy lol.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Easier said than done though, isn’t it lol 😅 Yeah, could stay flat for a while, def a possibility. After all this flushes out, anyway.

[@atunga5]

not sure it will be sideways (has not been sideways so far but down) . the actions of wotc will really determine what happens. anyone that thinks of their collection as an investment (regardless of their financial situation) is / should be concerned with the precedent set by magic 30. a repeat would trigger a major exit, if it just becomes a bad memory the market will come back probably faster than the 5 / 10 year mark

[@GradedInMyLivingRoom]

The over production and pancaking of new products as well as reprints is an indication the collector and investors are seeing it as stagnant value. Older vintage should hold up but HAS has created an environment that will slowly erode value and may take years if not decades to rebound. I have older stuff from the late 90s and definitely believe more pain to come as the collector/investor base just shrinks as HAS makes it not practical to collect or invest with no New buyer base. New stuff will be over produced and old stuff will just get reprinted. That said may be good for the player as this should lower prices. However HAS didn't get that memo as they alienate the player base with elevated prices.

[@AlphaHoarder]

They really are choosing the worst path they could manage, aren’t they 🤦‍♂️

[@thereallichking533]

I will continue to buy arabian cards and abu until I croak, I just love pulling out boxes and seeing all the cards

[@AlphaHoarder]

Cheers to that 🍻 Nothing like a love of the cardboard for its own sake

[@BareMetalProgramming]

Old School player here. I don't care about the prices one bit. All I care about is having the cards to play with. So lower prices only means I get to buy more of the cards that I want faster.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Very true! I tend to default into the frame of collector/investor, but that’s obviously not the only way to enjoy this hobby. If you are a player, looking for hard-to-find cards, then now seems like a great opportunity, regardless of what comes next.

[@patmacrotch5611]

Buddy you are in the top 1% of collectors lol

[@scootletawny3886]

Let’s all head to the dump!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Hasbro enacting the perfect metaphor for what they’ve done to the market sentiment!

[@MrReckless1978]

I'm selling an unopened international collector's edition 12k with serious offer's only

[@Alphonsoinvestments]

chocolate chip ok? unless you're allergic

[@AlphaHoarder]

My favorite lol

[@hermodnitter3902]

It's kind of strange though, how newly printed totally ugly plastic feeling proxies can ruin people's love for the original old cards. I don't give a shit and think M30 is just stupid, can't even fathom that people care about this set (but they do for some reason), so I continue to buy old cards. I think this period separates those who *really* love the old cards and those who mostly were in it for the investment, and those latter ones are coming out now. Definitely a big restructuring. But I believe the game will slowly create new players that will drift into collecting older cards, but it will definitely take some time... PS, gorgeous Raging Rivers you got, I got a beta copy last week, and use an Unlimited in an edh deck! Cheers ;)

[@AlphaHoarder]

Good distinction. If you are mainly a collector, "exiting" is more of a hypothetical curiosity, whereas if you are mainly an investor, "exiting" is the most important part. I suspect in practice, most people exist in a continuum between those two, and depending where one lands would depend how much of a betrayal M30 represented. Good insights, thanks for sharing.

[@hermodnitter3902]

@@AlphaHoarder thanks you too Mike, awesome channel, always interesting to hear your thoughts, and definitely not easy to come up with a answer :)

[@OwenCarver]

It literally could have just been 2 people who wanted to buy a bunch of land somewhere instead and also not have to worry about physical inventory somewhere.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yup, definitely true.

[@knightsnigh4731]

I've seen more beta, unlimited and Arabian in the UK come up than I've seen in maybe 10 years. Public inventory via eBay and stores is way up on normal and I've had private offers for things I've rarely seen available from that era recently. Even for sensible prices... Shivan Dragon on the other hand still seems to be gold dust.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Heh, yes, Shivan isn’t one that’s seeing much price softening!

[@knightsnigh4731]

​​@@AlphaHoarder yup. In the UK alpha is hard to come by (I have some but nothing "meaningful" if that makes sense). Shivan in A/B/U seems insanely hard to find here let alone in clean condition. Best I've seen recently is a HP unlimited for £230/$240 but I'm not convinced about HP for that particular card. I'm (slowly) rebuilding an unlimited set but it's hard. I've settled for LP+ as the cost for going higher is hard. Sold out in 2000 after collecting since early 94 (man I still have sellers remorse). Had full playsets of B/U of everything including a full power set and so on as well as playsets of everything viable through to mercadian masques (including a complete foil legacy set). Still it's a slow accumulation task and satisfying to tick everything off. Your collection is absolutely amazing and truly gorgeous. Having a full alpha set is amazing let alone one in such a highly graded condition.

[@AlphaHoarder]

@@knightsnigh4731 Oh man! That's a heck of a collecting journey!

[@knightsnigh4731]

​@@AlphaHoarder you are absolutely spot on its been a hell of a ride. Saying that, my collection covered all my tuition fees, set me up debt free and in a good place so can't complain. Buying back in at a vastly higher price is depressing in some ways but also satisfying as it's now about the full set in the nicest condition possible.

[@aussieexpat]

my friend who is a long term player and investor. exited last year due to basically woke stuff being pumped into the current game.

[@Izawwlgood]

I'd like to hear more about your perceived value compared to the market value. You do talk about this regularly, but it always seems to come with a bashful excuse or caveat. While I'm definitely interested in your perceptions of the market and investment strategy, I'm primarily here to see you lay out and talk about super old cardboard that I too have big nostalgia for! WRT to your notion of banning art, it's also partially the age old issue of 'separate the art from the artist', and isn't an easy clean line to draw. There's some problematic stuff, for the art, for the artist, for the card description/theme, and some of that stuff should be banned. WotC also got a little overzealous with some stuff for sure - modern cards for sure have strong sexual themes, so, a lot of these choices seem inconsistent. Baked cookies, but they were oatmeal raisin, neighbor kids are now pissed.

[@AlphaHoarder]

The art thing is complicated, as you say, and I think for the generation younger than me it also gets infused with politics in a way that I can’t untangle… So I’ve hesitated jumping into it. You make good points. Appreciate the on the ground recruiting, even if we ended up with oatmeal 🤣

[@billstead9253]

We have entered the age of the influencer - as long as people believe that Tolarian Community College, Alpha Investments, even mid tier influencers are important, I feel like MTG will last like other influencer heavy categories like pokemon, video games, lego, etc. as long as those said influencers want to continue to get paid. I'm hedged in a lot in both old and new of all these categories, and the people that will pick up the expensive cards and items from these collecting categories will likely be the future influencers of these categories if not just the mega influencers getting to a level of wealth to just keep buyin em / having no real need to sell them as the status symbol of simply owning them boosts their channels even more which equals even more money for them.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I think you’re right to point to the social media aspect. That is a variable that never existed before for other pop culture collectibles.

[@MrGolibroda]

​@@AlphaHoarder Influencers are great, but for generational transition you need people sharing their passion. How passionate is the future youtuber focused on value compared to Brian from TCC? Life is really about the beliefs, values and emotions you share. The value of gathering, gameplay, and art is no longer there.

[@tomglpn]

This is a game, not for investment. I wish m30 would have been 100 times the quantity and exact reprints including back. No offense to you for investing, but I've played since 95, and I don't like the game being used as an investment.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I’m not sure that’s a fair delineation. Collecting was a clear and prominent part of the hobby as early as 1995 as well. The release of the CE & ICE sets are part of that, as well as the explicit wording on the reserve list when it was first released, making it clear that they were trying to preserve value for collectors. I don’t think it’s fair for anybody to try to define the hobby in a single way, when from it’s inception, it has played multiple roles for multiple people.

[@tomglpn]

Collecting sure. Investing is totally different. A small number of people buying 90 % of the supply is bad for the game. Am I jealous I can't afford that....maybe. But at the end of the day a collector typically has 1-4 cards of each??? It's a free country and anyone can buy or hoard whatever they want. I'm for capitalism and all that. It just saddens me to see all these cards that you, Rudy, etc buy, and will never be played again. That's all. Not trying to attack you, just putting my thoughts out there. As for generational pass down, I think it's never gonna happen. We are attached to these cards from nostalgia and childhood. They are. They will inherit them and make as much $ off them as quick as they can.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah that’s fair enough. I worry about card access, too. I suppose it depends a bit how you draw your circles around collector versus investor. I buy cards that I love that I want to display and enjoy, I have no intention of selling them for profit and I don’t buy them with that as my end game. To me, the investing site is important only because if these cards were worthless, I could never justify spending so much money on them. It’s sort of the engine that allows the collecting to be practical at scale, but it’s not the point of the collecting. Maybe that’s a distinction without a difference to some, I don’t know. Even Rudy calls himself an evil investor, but I’m not sure if I see him ever selling his old stuff. Who knows. I appreciate you sharing your perspective, and I do worry about that generational handoff. Only time will tell!

[@oldbordergeek]

Maybe maybe alpha is the most chosen object of investment for ppl who didnt really knew what they were doing? Maybe now they exit as quick as they came in 2021. This is just a alpha thing right now right?

[@AlphaHoarder]

Could be, although I’ve definitely seen some movement from long time collectors who are turned off from the hobby now, so at the very least it’s a mix 🤔

[@RockerfellerRothchild1776]

All collectables die with the generation that it started with

[@AlphaHoarder]

Many do die, unfortunately. Sports cards and memorabilia are one exception. I would argue Pokémon has jumped to todays kids. Magic… who knows!

[@MrZerged]

It’s really hard to follow your thoughts because you interrupt yourself and you speak very slowly. Love what you talk about but hard to listen to you.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I’m afraid I never was great shakes at public speaking, even when I’m not distracted by epic cardboard 😅