Investing in Technological Revolutions

Exciting new technologies, and the companies that create them, seem like obvious investment opportunities. Why wouldn’t you want to invest in the companies leading a new world-changing technological paradigm?
Rational Reminder Episode 124: Prof. Lubos Pastor: Equilibrium Models vs. Intuition: rationalreminder.ca/podcast/124
Referenced in this video:
Stocks for the Long Run: www.amazon.ca/Stocks-Long-Run...
Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: www.amazon.ca/Technological-R...
The double bubble at the turn of the Century: Technological roots and structural implications: www.carlotaperez.org/downloads...
Technological revolutions and speculative finance: Evidence from the British Bicycle Mania: www.econstor.eu/bitstream/104...
Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...
Was There a NASDAQ Bubble in the Late 1990s?: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...
Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction to what you can expect from investing in technological revolutions
0:45 The pattern found between technological revolutions and financial capital
4:01 The math behind the profitability and stock prices of companies creating new technologies
6:56 The difference in risk and volatility between the “old” and “new” economy
12:19 Should you be betting on the “winning” companies?
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Spotify Podcasts:
open.spotify.com/show/6RHWTH9...
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[@blizzard762]

10:26 "Investment returns do not come from a company's growth. They come from the relationship between a company's future profits, and how much you -- the investor -- paid for those profits." Louder for the people in the back!

[@_0O0O0O0_]

I'm not sure I understand this. Anyone care to rephrase?

[@gc4924]

@@_0O0O0O0_ i also dont understand LOL

[@JamyOats]

@@_0O0O0O0_ I'll try. Firstly, growth without profits is basically worthless. Companies grow with the hope of becoming more profitable, but ultimately it's the profitability that counts and nothing else. When you buy a stock you are buying future dividends (profits). This can be a good or bad deal depending on what price you paid for the stock. The company with the highest profit growth in the world will be a lousy investment if you pay $1m for a share. Your investment returns will be negative. Hope that helps.

[@_0O0O0O0_]

@Andrew H Thanks Andrew. That helped. What I'm still a little lost on is when Ben said when I companies profits are predictable then the stocks will start to trend downward. I'm paraphrasing. He mentioned that stocks go up in value because of the uncertainty. Wouldn't knowing a companies profitability make the stocks more valuable if it's more certain the company's gong to be profitable? I know he showed us studies that say, no they won't be more valuable, but I'm not sure I completely understand why this happens.

[@theondono]

@Andrew H just a minor correction, the point of the study is that this stock is not “overpriced”, but rather that this uncertainty is accounted by additional risk, because no one knows yet how profitable are companies in a sector that does not exist. You are getting exposure to additional risk, and as always, you pay a premium for it.

[@mr-boo]

Can I just say, I'm blown away! I've been studying quite a bit lately (books, blogs, non-hype-sensible youtubers) before making actual moves as an investor. Your channel is right up there with the best. I love the depth to your videos; I'll have to go over these papers at some point to ensure I really grasp everything you say. Thanks for sharing your wisdom on the subject!

[@bad_writer]

I come back and rewatch this video every once in a while to remind myself how and why this logic works. Fascinating and so helpful. This info will save some people hundreds of thousands of dollars

[@tomaszurbas326]

Ben, the amount of research and quality of your content is literally insane. This is how investing channel should look like - full of data, quoted researchers and logical conclusions. Keep up with the good work!

[@KnowArt]

ARK wants to know your location

[@philforrence]

Yeah, @benfelix, can you do a podcast discussion with Cathy Wood from Ark Invest? You guys I feel like would have a "game recognize game" attitude and we'd get a lot of info and entertainment from watching it!

[@mspaic10]

@@philforrence She does a good job explaining which technologies will lead in the future but not necessarily how that will translate in higher long term prices for the respective companies

[@philforrence]

@@mspaic10 yeah it's a good distinction. I'd like to hear her respond to it!

[@Mosesusorer]

@@philforrence Ben Felix doesn’t hold discussions with idiots

[@philforrence]

@@Mosesusorer Love to you, Abdullah! I think Cathy and Ben are quite brilliant. Always love to hear smart and respectful debate disputed, muddy, and confusing topics.

[@anonymousswimmer4010]

I wish Ben Felix were in the U.S.! I would love to have him as my advisor. This channel has the most intellectually honest and complete discussion of personal finance, of any youtube channel. As an Econ PhD myself, this is such a refreshing change of pace from all the pundits and noise. Thank you Ben!

[@alankoslowski9473]

Yes, I'm in the US too, and his honest, informed advice is superior to anyone I know of in the US.

[@f3wbs]

10:23 sometimes we forget this simple fact.

[@gregbell2117]

Unless you unload it to a greater fool and pocket the appreciation. Seems both ways work?

[@tylermacneill3820]

Ben keeps raising the bar for both academic rigor and editing quality every gosh dang video.

[@sonajero25]

Conclussion to everyone: 'the chances of picking winners are not in your favour' so they must be in my favour.

[@Hyperpandas]

Lol, nnice

[@igrowfaster]

😉

[@alankoslowski9473]

Actually, the message is 'the chances of *anyone* picking winners is unlikely, so it's best to invest in everything.

[@sonajero25]

@@alankoslowski9473 it was an ironic coment

[@alankoslowski9473]

@@sonajero25 OK, sorry I misconstrued.

[@Steven-wq8tx]

When Ben Felix uploads a new video, everything else gets put on hold

[@michaeldo1988]

When Chuck Norris talks...

[@Coeditor4089]

When is someone going to release the Declining Industries Global Index ETF? Ticker: LOSE ;)

[@raff8822]

That would be a great idea! Hahahh!

[@raymondchou9550]

LOL

[@johnbailey3351]

According to the book 100 Baggers by Chris Mayer from 1962 to 2014 the three stocks that provided the greatest returns to investors were 1) Berkshire Hathaway from 1965-2014 at 1,826,100%; 2) Kansas City Southern from 1972 to 2014 at 1,693,100%; and 3) Altria from 1962 to 2014 at 1,512,000%. I recently read a blogpost that listed the top returning stocks from 1990-2020 and #2 and #3 above were in the middle of that list. Exciting new industries attract lots of capital which leads to lots of capacity and competition which leads to lower profits and ROE. The advantage of a railroad which was a leading technology in the 1800's and a tobacco company is that they have little to no competition which increases profit margins due to a lack of competition and no need to spend big $ on marketing. They also spend the minimum on capex as there is no need for expansion. You can have the Teslas, I prefer the ones selling at low PE's (8-12), gushing cash flows that are being returned to shareholders, and perhaps modest growth. Oops edited to correct and add an extra zero to each percentage gain abo

[@petermarkos95]

@@johnbailey3351 So true, In the UK over the last 20 years its Tobacco companies that have outperformed the market.

[@ericweis9771]

I second that LOL!

[@jvdh_]

I keep a simple portfolio of international and US total market index funds. I often have FOMO about certain things like REITs, dividend stocks, individual stocks or even just getting rid of international stocks. Each time I come back to your videos to get grounded and stick with my strategy. You truly are my rational reminder.

[@Mosesusorer]

@Ben Felix Scammer alert!! Please do not contact this clown! It’s a fake Ben

[@dialogsemiconductor2039]

So much research an working time in just 15 minutes. I think most don't know. Nice work and good video.

[@Bsketball77]

So... What you're saying is value stocks beat growth stocks over time, especially small cap growth stocks. This is definitely helped me visualize the recent podcast discussion.

[@Galaad850]

Excellent work Ben ! The quality of your videos is impressive.

[@rob1726]

Another masterpiece by Ben Felix. Thank you, Ben.

[@Martin-qb2mw]

An anecdote: In my fourth year of college I encountered Jensen's inequality for the first time in the proof of EM-maximisation in Bayesian learning. When it came up I thought "I know this one from Ben's videos".

[@fernandofurtado7164]

Excellent work, Ben! One of the best videos to date. Keep them coming!

[@AAkCN1]

I come here again regularly. One of my most favorite videos of all time! Thanks again

[@hermanlau4431]

Always come back to this video when I want to do some stupid bet on fancy new stock, thanks a lot.

[@alankoslowski9473]

LOL! Yeah, a reality check is always a good thing.

[@AstwoodF]

This is highkey one the best finance/investing channels on KZbin. None of those clickbait titles, just great content backed up by empirical research.

[@sanketrathore9545]

This analysis is a goldmine for individual investors like me who very much also value intellectual capital needed to invest smartly instead of getting caught up in the hype. Please keep up with with the great job you are doing as it is hard to find content and analysis that is deeply technical and rich with data presented in a convenient video format like this👍👍

[@S3bbby]

One of your most underrated videos you've made. Brilliant.

[@TheSolberg18]

Thanks for all the time you put into these videos. Always a pleasure to watch

[@neodenjin]

Another fantastic video Ben. I'll be watching this each time I get FOMO from missing out on the new hot stock.

[@michaeldo1988]

Your whole life

[@utubethumbsup]

Meanwhile people who actually ignore this stupid advice are making money hand over fist while you enjoy your pedestrian 5-7% annual gains. Meh

[@michaeldo1988]

@@utubethumbsup pedestrian lmao

[@dojadoi]

So what you're telling me is that I should buy TSLA, got it.

[@trs8696]

buy 1 day calls 700 strike, easy money bro

[@cat-.-]

@@trs8696 easy money for the writer lol

[@djayjp]

It's still undervalued.

[@dragonder100]

@@djayjp LOL

[@TDubya811]

Worked out just fine for Emmet Peppers...

[@michaelrodgers6675]

This is such a phenomenal video. Evidence for everything too, so awesome, thanks for churning out these awesome videos Ben! The parts about the original constituents of the S&P 500 outperforming the S&P 500, and how oil outperformed tech are incredible, never would have guessed.

[@blakutnuj]

You broke my brain Much appreciated. You gonna make some dough now. I'm rewatching this thing for the fourth time and all of the ads with it

[@PierceJordan]

We do be loving a Ben Fellix video on this fine Saturday morning 👌🏻

[@Michael-gh5ys]

this guy taking a jab at EV sector. i like it

[@JBT97]

Okay, going to go all in on steel and sears. Letsssgoooo

[@mplslawnguy3389]

Add Montgomery Ward and cigarettes and you have the perfect portfolio!

[@masafelipe7033]

Watching Ben and Ramin at Pensioncraft is a real treat. It seems that this video is coordinated with Ramin's today/yesterday. Great stuff.

[@mrdish2674]

Great video Ben, my favourite yet!

[@xntumrfo9ivrnwf]

General comment on your videos: I have an MSc in Finance and almost 10 years of IB work experience on the markets side. While my head says your videos are "true" in the sense that I had to study many of the same papers you present (not in this video specifically), my heart says "THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS IS A SCAM, YOU KNOW YOU CAN PICK THE BEST STOCKS!!". Fortunately I've listened to my head thus far. Specifically re. this video: legitimately very interesting - I learned something new!

[@orlandofurioso392]

Exactly, I think there are too many people studying finance and thinking that it’s gonna be exactly like that in the markets. However, it all depends on your time frame. If you want to make money in 1 year, you go for hype momentum stocks. If you want to wait 40 years, you should behave like warren buffett

[@llljjj007]

Another amazing and free educational content. Thanks Ben!

[@pran10000]

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Basically, Buffet figured it out before science did! Awesome video.

[@investwithwillwest3952]

*Amazing video, Ben! Starry eyed tech investors should watch this over and over again. Never before have boring value stocks looked so appealing.*

[@PericoloMortale]

Such as?

[@MikelSyn]

@@PericoloMortale yes.

[@bhenley2081]

Moral of the story: buy a diversified index fund and tune out the noise.

[@nonamed56]

you could do that and get your 7% return... or you know, you could do actual research on which companies to invest in so you can make a decent amount of money and retire early

[@Mosesusorer]

@Ben Felix Scammer alert!! Please do not contact this clown! It’s a fake Ben

[@alankoslowski9473]

@@nonamed56 Since even most professional active managers (about 90%) trail the market, that's unlikely to be more successful than an index fund. You might get lucky, but probably not.

[@nonamed56]

​@@alankoslowski9473first of all, where did you get those numbers from? second of all, you call buying index funds "investing"?! you don't even know the companies that you are invested in. I bet you can't even name them all. seems like a disaster waiting to happen. one important rule of investing is: know what you own. also, I don't care about active manager's or retail investor's returns. I know I'm buying a piece of a business and it's future cash flows, so why shouldn't I try to find the best? I won't be able to find THE best, but I will still find a good company. why should I invest in the S&P and baghold overpriced companies like Tesla for no reason? if you manage to answer these questions I might buy some VOO and see how my portfolio does against it in the long run

[@raulsn5409]

Love all the effort you put into the video, I've been following the journey through the podcast!

[@jackiechandc]

Been following you long time. Always love your references to research. Great job once again Ben!

[@jenkins5265]

When Ben uploads, drop everything and watch.

[@Alessandro-gy7kg]

Incredibly interesting and counterintuitive yet logical👍

[@anthonyesquire9830]

Outstanding work. Once gain, thank you so much for an empirical approach to discussing phenomena in financial markets.

[@MrChocojose]

Man, I bought some VGT a few weeks ago and you just kinda made me regret it...I hate you, but one of my favorite channels on youtube, amazing work as always and kickass podcast!

[@Duke-225]

The term "Irrational Exuberance" originated with Fed chairman Alan Greenspan in a 1996 speech. Schiller borrowed it for the title of his 2000 book.

[@PapaCharlie9]

I thought that didn't sound right.

[@aethelwolfe3539]

Robert Schiller from Yale University, and Soros calls it something similar theory of reflexivity. People can influence what happens in the markets.

[@user-wo9jj6ii6t]

Thanks for making this video about the current EV bubble Ben

[@jessesambro9535]

Another great video, thanks Ben

[@fernandofurtado7164]

I was listening to you talk and was noticing many similarities with another great book by Thomas Kuhn about Scientific Revolution. It ended up that Peres' book is greatly inspired by Kuhn's "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions".

[@lakshayakula8892]

Thanks for the video Ben! I had one question. I'm confused by the Jensen's Inequality piece at 5:49. Let's assume we have perfect information, the only possible scenarios are 10% and 2% growth rate, and both scenarios are equally likely. Using your assumptions, that gets us to 10% growth -> $1 / (11% - 10%) = $100 price and 2% growth -> $1 / (11% - 2%) = $11 price. Since both scenarios are equally likely, the expected price is ($100 + $11)/2 $56 (which you also arrive at). Where I lose you is the next step where you state that as uncertainty decreases, prices fall. This isn't the case in the earlier example. There's a 50% chance the actual growth rate ends up being 10% and the price goes up to $100 or a 50% chance the actual growth rate ends up being 2% and the price falls to $11. So the price doesn't always fall as uncertainty decreases (as evidenced by the 10% growth scenario). There's no scenario where the growth rate ends up being 6% (the average of 10% and 2%) because the only possible outcomes are 10% or 2%. Let me know if this makes sense. I might just be missing a step in my logic and would appreciate it if you could correct me. Once again, thanks!

[@Eric_Nielsen]

Usually I find your recommendations to be excessively conservative and anti- stock picking. However this video won me over with math. Thank you, well done.

[@UiraResende]

Really amazing review of the matter!!! Thanks!

[@rubenthijs746]

All heil Ben with his guidance through these tough times. Our Oracle is back, with his thoughtful and steady advice. May he make sure our portfolio's are safe, and our yields high and constant. In all seriousness: great videos!

[@AppletonPermaculture]

Sooo... short the future, long the past?

[@TheRilai]

Neat way to put it

[@ZenoxDemin]

All-in in GME?

[@the-Brown]

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

[@alanvazquez7598]

Earnings, discount rates and growth opportunities are main drivers of a company value. Good luck paying low multiples for low earnings prospects.

[@ahmedsuliman6640]

im still not shorting TSLA

[@Synthminator]

Very nice research, thanks!

[@purplanet5583]

I really, really wish you upload more often. I understand you’re a busy man, you put so much work into the videos. Great thanks from Korea.

[@connorschafferius7965]

@Ben Felix When is the next video mate? Love your content. From Australia.

[@Mosesusorer]

@Ben Felix Scammer alert!! This is a fake Ben!

[@fzigunov]

14:04 maybe Ben is trapped in his studio and that dollar bill is a subtle SOS call...

[@jakel8627]

Wtg

[@jakel8627]

Wtf

[@JaZaarMercury]

I dumped most of my ARK shares. I'm switching to a diversified Five Factor allocation for my retirement portfolio.

[@NATOnova]

Great choice! How do you plan on getting a five factor portfolio?

[@JaZaarMercury]

@@NATOnova Using low cost index and sector ETFs. I rely on Betterment to manage my ROTH IRA apart from my employer sponsored plan.

[@samsonsoturian6013]

This comment aged like wine. Very red wine.

[@alexc2265]

What incredible, counterintuitive findings! This will influence my allocations

[@Shvabicu]

Brother, you don't have enough subscribers. I may be a degenerate gambler in my trading activities, but I also invest in index funds. You are so far above the masses of financial influencer pundits with actual common sense, it's a sight to behold.

[@BenFelixCSI]

Degenerates need common sense too.

[@user-fm6hn9qk9d]

Always thanks for nice videos, Ben. If you don't mind, I'd like to hear you comment about SPAC, the biggest issue in current stock market!

[@emiliod90]

Thank you for the analysis. It has made me question the propotion of my holdings in Lithium miners haha ;/

[@carlesmanguiano]

Fantastic video! Another explanation of your that I enjoyed

[@georgeagan]

🤯When i heard this one on the podcast. Great, thought provoking content!

[@msahakim]

I'm investing in myspace and AOL right now. Thanks for the tech stock tips!

[@markusheitkoetter6031]

Invest in bit¢oin trading with my administrative Kris Steven

[@markusheitkoetter6031]

His availability is on ωhatsapp

[@markusheitkoetter6031]

+ 1 9 1 7 7 9 1 4 1 4 8

[@elainestout4744]

Most newbies fail simply because they don't understand how the market works in general or in particular how the market relates to stock or currency pair they entering. If a retail trades doesn't grasp what the market makers are doing and when they are doing it, the greatest strategy in the world will fall. For new traders the markets are like entering an F1 race before you've passed your drivers license test. I am a beginner I never believe I made $30,000 in just a week from trading and with the market. an expert financial analysis and he made me-learn to read and understand the language of price action. He guides me with the exact time frame to trade and now I just received my first withdrawals of $30k in my bank account today I'm very happy, my advice is for you to contact him he will guide you perfectly well, and thank me later, I guess this is a good way to show my heartfelt appreciation for literally breaking the chain of my financial debit when I needed it most, you can contact him on his email ([e-mail])

[@Mosesusorer]

@@markusheitkoetter6031 Scammer alert!!

[@javierrruiz1]

Kathy Woods from Ark Investments have left the chat.

[@jo1948]

taking her 8,000bps of alpha with her ha

[@xYoungDeezYx]

It’s Cathie Wood, and my ARKK etf has outperformed your passive index by 8000%, cheers

[@javierrruiz1]

@@xYoungDeezYx congratulations my friend, I only suggest you take into consideration the short history of ark funds.

[@xYoungDeezYx]

@@javierrruiz1 Thanks. Cathie has 40 years of investment experience though (in addition to being incredibly talented) so I feel quite confident in her managing my money. Ben on the other hand looks to be about 5 years removed from university - I’d be wary about taking his advice...

[@xYoungDeezYx]

@@javierrruiz1 update... ARKK is up 13% already YTD... S&P is up 1.5%

[@zjzjification]

I love how your dress gets gradually more casual... cool hoodie!

[@jacquelineazure]

Very interesting as usual. Thanks Ben!

[@MrC0MPUT3R]

4:19 that voice over caught me off guard lol

[@doomtomb3]

Ben's videos: buy the index

[@stanislavgritciuk337]

Great content as always Ben!

[@antoniomanguartpaez6381]

By far, you are the best finance channel. Gretings from Mexico!

[@elainestout4744]

Most newbies fail simply because they don't understand how the market works in general or in particular how the market relates to stock or currency pair they entering. If a retail trades doesn't grasp what the market makers are doing and when they are doing it, the greatest strategy in the world will fall. For new traders the markets are like entering an F1 race before you've passed your drivers license test. I am a beginner I never believe I made $30,000 in just a week from trading and with the market. an expert financial analysis and he made me-learn to read and understand the language of price action. He guides me with the exact time frame to trade and now I just received my first withdrawals of $30k in my bank account today I'm very happy, my advice is for you to contact him he will guide you perfectly well, and thank me later, I guess this is a good way to show my heartfelt appreciation for literally breaking the chain of my financial debit when I needed it most, you can contact him on his email ([e-mail])

[@Mosesusorer]

@Ben Felix scammer alert!! This is a fake Ben

[@Mosesusorer]

@@elainestout4744 Scammer alert!!

[@jaypark6960]

Wait Ben didn't say "I'm Ben Felix, Portfolio Manager at PWL Capital" Hope everything's okay there.

[@a_doggo]

oh no :( it's good he has a youtube channel and a great podcast! I bet Ben could find a job wherever he wanted

[@Mosesusorer]

@Ben Felix Scammer alert!! Please do not contact this clown! It’s a fake Ben

[@KyleBarber07]

Interesting stuff! Would love to hear your thoughts on momentum investing

[@djpuplex]

I believe he mentioned it in the video on factor investing band agreed with Fama and stated it was growth repackaged.

[@mackerel2002]

Yea i believe they said it is a real factor but hard to capture

[@iimichszm]

Every time I start wondering about something Ben releases a video that is answering my questions. Thanks Ben!

[@allenmitchell407]

Pretty sure he is omniscient. I yolo'd a paycheck on ARKK in the summer, and have made like 40% returns. Was just planning on putting in more, but now Ben has got me thinking.

[@Mosesusorer]

@Ben Felix Scammer alert!! This is a fake Ben!

[@TalWeissGx]

Excellent as always.

[@michaeledmonston2234]

“How to invest in PLTR”

[@ondrejkobersky4848]

Sir, this is a CASINO

[@Admin-helplin-click-on-bio]

I don't know who needs to hear this, you've got to stop saving money. invest some part of it, if your really want financial freedom

[@greenemills4620]

It's time the world should apreciate the development of çryptø, coz the way it makes good returns within a short period of time to, makes it so much lucrative and profitable

[@annabarez-brown2688]

@@greenemills4620 I've been reading about investors making up to $150,000 monthly profit. if anyone knows, I'd love to know how to make such profit despite the market odds

[@My_HeIpLine]

Bit-coin can be a very lucrative venture if you invest smartly

[@Danfromthenorth]

Some people don’t get the time scale and market in Ben’s video. It’s not about one single stock Vs one other stock. It’s not about a single stock’s performance the next few months. You can’t short Nio and Tesla and buy at&t and not expect to go bust. You can however expect to take on great risk and expect low and uncertain return if you only buy the newest biggest tech stocks. Most people should just diversify and forget about their stocks/index for the next many years.

[@0xszander0]

Also depends on how much you are able to invest. Good luck investing in a index fund with a 1000 bucks. Great 50 dollar return you have there... However if you choose to pick 1 growth stock. It can set you up for life. (to then start diversifying)

[@eggplant9775]

@@0xszander0 this is the same argument for lottery tickets. It doesn’t matter how much money you have, you should still invest it wisely. People who don’t have much money to invest need to focus on increasing their income

[@0xszander0]

@@eggplant9775 Except with a lottery, just like other gambling methods. (So it's not at all like gambling!) You are sure to lose in the long term. However, I like to look at the leadership, fundamentals and long term plans of a company. Giving me a informational edge over for instance gambling or index funds for that matter. It won't however give me a informational edge over other investors who can also seek out this information. Thus it's very likely that stocks like Tesla will be overvalued for their entire existence. However, overvalued does not mean they won't succeed and still grow immensely.

[@MarincaGheorghe]

@@0xszander0 The guys that really do valuations when buying they don't hold more than X percents (5?) In a stock. So there is no way to get rich fast. That is FOMI talk, an by definition irrational.

[@0xszander0]

@@MarincaGheorghe You mean, there is no way to get rich fast if you diversify. Plenty of examples out there of people that got rich off of Amazon/Apple etc.

[@paulsantori8920]

As always, great content, lots of information, clear as mud! What's your recommendation?

[@pongop]

Very interesting content! I'm enjoying these historical ones. Thanks for the food for thought. P.S. Put it all on tulips!

[@lography6917]

I feel like you're the main reason I feel confident I will reach a state of financial security as I age because your advice is very consistent, always relies on studies, and doesn't click-bait, but is timed poignantly. I really feel strongly that I'll do well investing in the S&P 500 over a long period as my main investment strategy.

[@BenFelixCSI]

I’d give some more thought to the S&P 500 as your main strategy. Explained why here kzbin.info/www/bejne/iIOalmSPYq19rrM

[@daydreamerforex3720]

Asset allocation please.

[@KnowArt]

Great video. Still won't sell TSLA though

[@harrychu650]

I am with Ron Baron, I will not sell a single share of tesla! Woohoo.

[@shresthamit]

TSLA is now the oil or steel companies he is referring on his video

[@jenkins5265]

TSLA will be in S&P 500 soon. You'll own it either way. It's a question of proportion.

[@Juangalt]

We literally can predict when technology will change the world. Happens all the time. Good thing there are people like you leaving money on the table for the rest of us.

[@Spider_aaaahhh]

Say that to the people who invested in Tesla and Blackberry, and even Yahoo thinking that they were going to get rich 😂

[@Juangalt]

@@Spider_aaaahhh I made a ton of money on Tesla, sold about half my shares and still have some. Not sure what you are talking about.

[@gerritroe5]

This guy is quality.

[@god6less]

Am I the only one that feels like he is talking about Tesla ?

[@sichuan385]

there are many more worse company than tesla

[@cherch]

13:34 So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

[@iQinvesting]

Great video as always. It's so interesting to see that declining industries can produce returns that beat the market.

[@fredfred8255]

So happy to find your channel. You are fact and science based. Thanks

[@Mosesusorer]

@Ben Felix Scammer alert!! This is a fake Ben!

[@blackfiree91]

“Why’d you sell your Arkk shares?” Me: “Cause Ben Felix”

[@wagondragon]

Also me: can't think for myself so I'll just follow what others tell me

[@TheCameltotem]

Well pretty much all of their picks is up 20-100% lol.

[@JUSTforwhitlisting]

Sold ARKK and picked up what I thought were the best stocks in ARKK and I've been getting rewarded everyday. TSLA SQ were my top performers

[@wagondragon]

@@JUSTforwhitlisting I agree on the TSLA and SQ - I'm not jumping on the ARKK bandwagon, because there are companies there that I just don't see/value the same way.

[@Nierez]

BRUH... we beating the S&P right now hommie.

[@katarinailic1095]

Not investor, not here for finances. His voice is so good I really can't leave idk 😂

[@markusheitkoetter6031]

Invest in bit¢oin trading with my administrative Kris Steven

[@markusheitkoetter6031]

His availability is on ωhatsapp

[@markusheitkoetter6031]

+ 1 9 1 7 7 9 1 4 1 4 8

[@Mosesusorer]

@@markusheitkoetter6031 scammer alert!!

[@MarketScraper]

I think a big driver to higher prices is the speculation on expected TAM often increases driving speculation higher. There's often a ryme to the madness 😁

[@sgoldan]

Just the reality check I needed.

[@anindomaiti8695]

Great video as always. However it does beg the question - how would you explain the breakout sensation of ARK ETFs that have each produced close to 150% return year to date? All of their ETFs are very concentrated, holding high conviction technological innovation stocks focused around certain mega trends or themes that are expected to be sustained over the next 3-5 years. ARK is now the largest actively managed ETF provider with perhaps the fourth largest inflows this year. I was wondering through what theoretical lens we can analyze their success. I am not discrediting your thesis but wondering the reasons since it runs contrary to the very basic premise of ARK's investing philosophy.

[@utubethumbsup]

Because Ben is not always right. He's parroting old, worn out, outdated talking points from years ago which aren't relevant in today's market. People who missed out on massive gains can make themselves feel better after watching this, but the reality is a) even if there IS a bubble, you can still make a ton of money and b) perhaps folks here that when "past performance doesn't equal future results", the same can also apply to "old" advice like what is being presented here.

[@Mosesusorer]

@@utubethumbsup you’re lost dude 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[@JanischMaximilian]

@@utubethumbsup The mathematics behind markets are always the same and markets are not fundamentally broken. So why would „old, worn out, outdated talking points“ stop working if they have a strong stance from an empirical and theoretical point of view? About your FOMO: Think about the stock with the best performance next week. It is very likely going to more than double. QUICK! YOU NEED TO FIND IT! NOW! THINK ABOUT THE GAINS YOU ARE MISSING!* * It goes without saying that this is sarcasm and that this type of thinking, which is how I interpret your point of view, will lead to great risk of long-term underperformance of the market.

[@Kennan_Davis]

ARK invest is trash. Their funds have only done so well, mainly last year, because they’re heavily invested in extremely high and overvalued companies. ARK invest will die a painful death, mark these words

[@markf385]

@@Kennan_Davis called it!

[@robertmaxwellproduce]

11:09 When you talk about an investor buying the original SP500 and holding for 50yrs, then beating the market, does this include companies that died? If so, this is especially impressive.

[@AAkCN1]

Good question

[@SilviaManentFinancialAdvisor]

Yay! You posted’ I love your videos!!! Definitely curious what cathie woods from ARK thinks too!

[@Fizmoo]

Top video mate!

[@evanlebzu1]

So you mean we wait for the crash of clean energy stocks then invest in the survivors?

[@Raphael4722]

Thing about clean energy stocks is that they already had a big bubble and crash about a decade ago. Their technologies are far more cost-efficient now so their current valuations could well be justified.

[@Hyperpandas]

A lot of clean energy stocks don't have a lot of tech risk on them. They've been around for a long time, and their technology is well understood. Periphery things like battery and materials development might though.

[@kubismatik2]

It is not easy to tell if it is too soon or too late. I invested too soon in PV stocks just to see them go under one by one and leave their space on the market to now dominant players (JKS in panels, ENPH in microinverters, SEDG in inverters etc.). Look at TAN to see when losers left the market to winners while the market expanded significantly at the same time - it went nowhere for years until it exploded with winners taking all.

[@itschrisuphere]

important to look at which are healthy companies and which are not. Prices move when certainty about those future profits increases. It's also starting to look like there will be blood, particularly in EVs given the froth. And while I absolutely LOVED the research & condensate of insight here from Ben, as someone on the tech end (and student of technological revolutions) I do think Ben's very valid academic points should be applied to what we are seeing right now lightly and with a fine and specific brush. We are entering unprecedented times from an industry & technology perspective at the 'industrials' level. The de-risked clean technology platforms out there (solar, wind, batteries) have only VERY recently become economically sustainable and the 'best tool'. The costs of these are decreasing 10-30% per annum and we are only at the start pre-inflection on the S curve. Still lots of doubters & many very smart people with the information at hand which don't see it yet. Once everyone else sees the future, as Ben mentions - it has been priced in. Unless you have very specific and strong insight in the space, best stick to indexes.

[@MattRoszak]

Value factor funds for me it is then.

[@ag5605]

Fits perfectly to the current Situation

[@fruitafval]

So how does the momentum factor fit ? Is it just temporary? In which the factor shifts To a new technological improvement? And does it even make sense to buy An momentum index?

[@PyMoondra]

Excluding the math, let me summarize what he's talking about in the first 6 minutes (my understanding): Based on past data, all new disruptive technology goes through a bubble period because investors can't really calculate how disruptive this new tech will be, and usually initially overestimate the profitability of the tech. I think this is called total addressable market. Once the tech starts to become more mature and becomes more common place within companies, valuations tend to come down as reality kicks in, and the profits aren't going to be as lucrative as once perceived. This pattern has repeated itself over and over and will continue to do so, (until maybe the realization of strong AI which will probably eliminated the need for companies); Some common examples of this I can think of are: 3d printing: There was a huge bubble because the possibilities felt endless, but then the bubble crashed as reality set in. The technology just wasn't able to replace manufacturing. The technology is getting better and better, but current prices are nowhere near what they were during the bubble; Gene Editing stocks: This was another bubble, because of how disruptive the tech would be, and markets got carried away. The bubble popped realization was met that tech isn't mature enough toe handle complicated cases and only single edit diseases seemed viable with tech, and the market for that isn't as big for these rare diseases. Another problem is the pricing, since these are supposed to be cures, they are only applied a few times, so they needed it be in the millions, which is not really affordable. In the past we have seen this with internet stocks and bubble that initially came with: Some from the dotcom didn't survive, some probably have had mediocre returns, some merged to survive, and some excelled. As for the big stocks like Amazon etc, they were able to continue to innovate: For example Amazon isn't just an ecommerce store, but was able to pivot into cloud and continue to innovate into AI, and other sectors. Google and Facebook didn't really know how to monetize their services, and kind of got lucky advertising worked out. At that time, most didn't know how these companies would monetize. Microsoft missed out on the phone years, but was able to come back and pivot into cloud, which has been really profitable. So these big tech companies have been able to continue to innovate and stay ahead of the curve. Current hype is EVs and battery tech: We don't really know the market for EVs, and battery tech and that's why we have really high evaluations. While the tech will eventually probably become ubiqutious, the market is once again most likely (based on history), over valuing the industry for ev and this battery tech. So we have two problems: first the battery tech might not be as advanced as the market believes it to be and won't be as disruptive. New tech is usually overhyped, and it's only maybe after 5-10 years will the tech match our current believes.There is a chart that shows hype cycle for new technology. Too lazy to look for it. Secondly, EV adoption rate might be slower than expected, or profits might not be as big as investors are currently pricing in. Now the government is stepping in to try to improve adoption rates, so that might have some effect, but if competition is cutthroat, then margins are going to be lower, which means less profits. Speaking from a historical perspective, market is overestimating the EV industry profits. Now that doesn't necessarily mean you can't make lots of money. If you can see these bubbles, and get in and out, the you can make a lot of money. However lots of people will end up losing money, as they come in late and continue to believe in the hype, get greedy. Timing the bubbles might be difficult, and am not sure how consistent one can be. However there are funds that are consistently beating the market, and I think Warren Buffet also stated if he dealt with small money he could beat the market each year with 50% gains. Skill levels vary a lot among investors, as well as hedge funds, and there are lots of poor investors who are skewing the population IMO.

[@dimasjunior237]

Nice commentary

[@Mosesusorer]

“Now that doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t make lots of money. If you can see these bubbles and get in and out, then you can make a lot of money.” Timing the market is IMPOSSIBLE to do consistently. Not somewhat challenging, and not just difficult. It cannot be done on a consistent basis because it would require an accurate prediction of the future every single time. Again, not possible.

[@szilagyimiklos4757]

@@Mosesusorer you get in when you see its starting to get hype you get out when you see it starting to stabilize, its definitely possible not saying it is easy but possible

[@Mosesusorer]

@@szilagyimiklos4757 not possible to do CONSISTENTLY. You can get lucky once, twice, or even a couple times but you won’t come out ahead with that kind of strategy...

[@szilagyimiklos4757]

“Now that doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t make lots of money. If you can see these bubbles and get in and out, then you can make a lot of money." You know how bubbles work right? You just have to be alert when it pops then sell thats harder than it sounds but doable CONSISTENTLY