44 YEAR OLD STOCK MARKET SUPER BUBBLE

[@jerrycampbell-ut9yf]

Certain equities normally rise around this time of year, but that is unlikely given the present recession and economic environment. I have a lot of stocks with the hopes of making money this month, but I'm not sure if I should retain them or sell them. I've been losing money since Q2 2022, and the outlook for investors in 2024 does not look promising.

[@Peterl4290]

If you expect a larger market downturn, I recommend evaluating the firms in your portfolio and their future prospects. Seeking expert advice from an investing consultant may assist you in reorganizing your portfolio and balancing out underperforming assets. This strategy has relieved my stress and anxiety while also saving me time.

[@Jamaal67i]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $$275k to $850K...

[@larrypaul-cw9nk]

Can you share details of your advisor?

[@Jamaal67i]

Annette Christine Conte is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@larrypaul-cw9nk]

Thank you for sharing, I must say ,she appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call

[@Damncars456]

It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. I'm contemplating investing more than $300k for retirement. While the bull run can generate short-term excitement, i also need long-term investment strategy

[@MakeamericaGreatagain-h7j]

It seems like there's potential, but caution is warranted. hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points

[@BBmbr89]

80% stocks 20% cash. I plan to take advantage of the s&p 500 as leading indicators predict above 10% rise by this year, my only issue is how to properly allocate a 6-figure st0ck/bond portf0lio for substantial gains at minimum risk of inflation.

[@ZednanElle]

I believe that diversifying your invest-ments is the safest way to handle it. One way to lessen the effects of a markt crisis is to distribute invest-ments over a variety of asset classes, such as international equities, bonds, and real estate. It's also critical to look for exprt advice.

[@NicolePangea]

Certain Mag 7 companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portf0lio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.

[@ritaakaraz]

I fired mine 2 yrs ago. now I am beginning to see the benefits, how do I get one? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?

[@NicolePangea]

Sure, the likes of the popular “Victoria Louisa Saylor" does a good job. Just look up the name, you’d find details on the web to set up an appointment as she offers free consultations for Veterans like yourself.

[@ritaakaraz]

Thank you for sharing, I must say, Victoria appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call

[@blessedblem2051]

Well explained. Thanks for bringing up the videos financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject.

[@DewireGonchoff221]

*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*

[@QuentinHufton]

wow this awesome 👏 I'm 47 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??

[@DewireGonchoff221]

It's Esther A Berg doing, she's changed my life.

[@DebeaumontCadiz]

I do know Ms. Esther A Berg , I also have even become successful....

[@CordoneDavoren274]

After I raised up to 325k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states 🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son's surgery (Oscar). Glory to God.shalom.

[@veromudia5721]

Good day all👍🏻 from Australia 🇦🇺. I have read a lot of posts that people are very happy with the financial guidance she is giving them ! What way can I get to her exactly ?

[@SamuelMiracle-f9h]

*Your explanations are clear and straight forward It's always a honor to have you here as a mentor, I appreciate you for the time being spent to educate us financially. Regardless of how bad it gets the economy, I still makeover $28K every single week. I truly value Bianca, and her helpful guides.*

[@SamuelMiracle-f9h]

If you don't find a means of multiplying your income you will wake up one day to realize you didn't plan..

[@flora8525-y6k]

Since working with Bianca Lindsey, She transformed my investment strategy, my stock portfolio keeps increasing, turning a $20,000 investment into $478,000 in less than a year. Her insights on market trends and stock selection have been invaluable. If you’re looking to boost your investments, she’s the one to trust!

[@flora8525-y6k]

I value your perspective and content .Bitcoin is on its way to breaking records, getting closer to hitting new high prices, showing that it's gaining more value and could go even higher than we've seen before. This could mean great things for people looking to invest, suggesting now might be a good time to get involved before it jumps even higher .

[@SamuelMiracle-f9h]

She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name,

[@SamuelMiracle-f9h]

Biancalind60💯..that's it

[@HodgeChris]

Markets look like 2015-16. Probably going back to all time highs, but will probably go sideways until fed signals rate cut, Recently sold 25% of my $285k portfolio comprising of plummeting stocks that were recommended by certain financial KZbinrs, quite devastating!

[@Justinmeyer1000]

not their fault, the stock market seems to be more of a casino for gamblers now than a place for investors. even if you were averaging down on ailing companies, its your duty to properly research, buying the dip does not guarantee a rebound

[@azulsimmons1040]

You have just illustrated why this market is extremely hard to call at this point. Nothing operates like it used to do. Every time the market drops, The Fed and government moves in with stimulus. We all know the stock market will have another huge bust at some point, then another round of stimulus to re-inflate it. All you can do is try to buy good stocks, ride the upswell, wait for the next bust, then the re-inflation from stimulus.

[@wuqinghui8199]

Sven, can you do an analysis on Chinese e commerce companies like PDD or JD? Where would they fit on the value quadrant

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for suggesting!

[@asadmohsin-o1s]

I have question sven The s and p is not same as before because now it give more weights to tech stocks right so it won't be accurate?

[@Value-Investing]

the market always gives more weight to what is hot at the moment, at the end, earnings are earnings, cash is cash, no matter where it comes from!

[@KC-dr4qz]

Not sure if it's a bubble. But I guarantee that fairly often there is a crash or major downturn. You can't prevent it, the market will go down alot in the future. Black swan or just profit taking, crash will show up

[@thewonderof06790]

It may look like a bubble and PE's are high, but the S&P chart over long periods resembles a Compounding Curve as it should!

[@dinosgura]

In a century we went from horses to space crafts.... so there's nothing wrong with that cagr.

[@jonnes__4657]

The P/E in the SPX is dominated by the MAG7 (Big Tech).... here is the assumption, that the growth will be stable and high. If you reduce a bit the MAG7, the P/E is not that high. So its important to serch for value and not only buy the index. .

[@MyChannel108]

Yes, Sven should use a logarithmic chart….

[@jayceh]

​@@dinosgurawell the period we went from horses to space craft far underperformed the period being discussed in this video Which is where we went from a Nordic level society in inequality to the most unequal society in US history, including the gilded age And it's predominantly driven by the Fed, and financial deregulation

[@isc9033]

Do dooms day videos make you more money Sven?

[@Value-Investing]

I am having fun making videos:-) Watch those you like, but it is also good to discuss the risks!

[@Besthalalstocks]

@@Value-Investing Unfortunately, even if know there is bubble, we can't sell everything and sit on sideline. If investor is cautious all the time no matter it is bubble or not can make good money. there are some stocks which went up by 10% while market was crashing in 2008.

[@pongop]

Sven donates the YT money, so hopefully they do make more money to support the school

[@pongop]

@@Besthalalstocks invest in value

[@spadbob24]

it does. no one cares when a KZbinr says its a bull run. but a dooms day, millions of hit. Fact of the matter is SnP is almost 6K now. those who invested are happy I can bet even this guy have been bull along, just making random bear scenario

[@TrendTV-s7p]

Great analysis, thank you! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?

[@schargiel7033]

The market doesn't need to crash when the underlined currency is crashing.

[@flipvansaksen774]

So true. The very real reason why stock market is doing so well. Zimbabwe, here we come.

[@luigigetsu]

Comparing the 70's and 80's PEs when the S&P was dominated by low margin and cyclical businesses like oil companies or one time buy purchase companies which were proud of the reliability of their products like the automakers is a completely different landscape than today's industry. On this day and age, S&P is dominated by high margin software businesses with the holy grail of continuous suscription revenues and programmed obsolescence. You cannot expect the PEs to stay the same as the 80s, the world has changed! ofcourse the fundamentals in agregate may not support these PEs but it is a bit of a head scratcher that you expect the same PEs of a time with less business development overall.

[@max77vvxf5yvh]

Let's see what happens to Google when chrome sold.

[@Videodoro]

“This time is different”

[@max77vvxf5yvh]

@@Videodoro yeah

[@marcoseggi7274]

Its entropy, nowdays "progress" grown faster than people consciousness. Financial markets are unpredictable due to psicological human beahviour so, when Money doesnt spread in different hands social condition decay and mean to put Money on business.

[@ryanh9388]

I think the bond market and interest rates from the 80’s to present day has played a large part in this run. Do you think interest rates will continue to go down going forward, stay the same, or increase? We are toward the inflection of the long term debt cycle, buckle up.

[@theodoroseidler7072]

Excellent. 100% Agreed.

[@parcekz9934]

Hi Sven, what do you think about Canada Goose stock? It was trading like a tech stock a few years back at 60$ a share and 100 PE. The revenue and other numbers have only improved since then, but the price tumbled to a mere 13$ a share. With the winter season coming, and a particularly cold one at that, do you think there may be a chance for a "relative" bargain here? Thanks!

[@trewadventures7034]

I bet that's due to that shrinking demand for luxury goods in china at the moment, same goes for other luxury brands, but that's just my thought. If the Chinese housing engine starts back up and consumers start spending again I'd expect more sales

[@Ronnie.Tom0]

Well, what makes me an outlier I guess! I am 57 year-old English immigrant, with zero interest in tech or stocks, and yet I am 110% committed to Bitcoin. I would describe myself as an extreme conservative/libertarian. I have been involved in UK politics for some time, and the main thing that drove me to study Bitcoin and ultimately recognise its value to Humanity was the threat posed by an over-weening government, first in the UK and lately in the US also. I regard the CBDC as the final brick in the wall of the totalitarian prison the world's governments are building for us. And Bitcoin is the ultimate defence against a tyrannical government.r.....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@Ronnie.Tom0]

Sandy Barclays program is widely available online..

[@Henry.Tex0t]

Job will pay your bills, business will make you rich but investment makes and keeps you wealthy even till the future.

[@Birdman5902]

Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.

[@jchall12]

Best signal provider in the market. Knowledgeable, level headed no loss like some other traders who recently jumped on the bandwagon.

[@svcalvin]

Sandy Barclays approaches trading in a completely unique way. I'm puzzled by her methods. She just seems to have an innate understanding of this trading world.

[@jonathankr]

Is it possible more people are invested than ever?

[@Value-Investing]

divide the world to the number of people, more businesses etc...

[@jonaspereira007]

​@@Value-Investingand also the internet. It is so easy to invest nowadays, someone in the most exotic countries can now invest in US stocks for example. This was unthinkable some decades ago, where it was very difficult for people outside America to invest in american stocks and that makes stocks a scarce product, driving the prices high.

[@cookiejar01]

Thanks for discussing my comment 😊

[@daraghcuddy244]

Different world now sven, technology and access to markets, plus quantitative easing/ inflation. New normal

[@jaimeestrada5527]

"this time is different" dangerous words

[@daraghcuddy244]

@jaimeestrada5527 could say that about anything though and lose out on lots of gains

[@Value-Investing]

yes, this time it might be different!

[@Michael_NV]

@@Value-Investing😂😂😂

[@a.carnevale4910]

@@Value-Investing I expect this scenario: Earnings keep growing at a double digits, but prices will go nowhere. Result? In 7-10y we will have a P/E of 10-12 at around 6000/7000 points

[@ricardoferreira1278]

Hi, When are you going to do a detailed analysis of Banco Millennium BCP BCP-LS? By my analysis the share has a potential for rising greater than 80% by 2027, do you agree with me?

[@chetangpt]

Question: Will quantitative easing help govt to avoid recession? Since 2008, every time there is a fear of recession, govt prints more money to ease of the tension. How long can this parameter play well for govt? I am looking forward to a well researched ans

[@vravi6561]

Hi Sven please review HDSN Hudson Technologies. Interesting business with low debt and strong cashflow. Margins are compressing. Would love your opinion. Thank you.

[@viktorianas]

These insane P/E ratios of top stocks are basically just a representation of HUGE expectations for AI, these stocks values are driven by imagination, P/E is almost irrelevant for Tesla, NVIDIA, etc...

[@ivankranjcevic4548]

There is nothing insane about it, cause it isn’t just about AI.

[@Deepfknvalue]

Forward P/E of 21/22, slightly high, nothing near bubble territory

[@viktorianas]

@@Deepfknvalue "Tesla (TSLA) Forward PE Ratio : 108.63 (As of Nov. 23, 2024)", but trillions are coming with FSD and robots, so nothing to worry about!

[@Deepfknvalue]

@@viktorianas im talkin about the whole market buddy.. even if tesla crashes 50% thats only like a 2% decline in the market given the weight

[@Deepfknvalue]

@ equal weighted pe is only at 16x as well.. never in mankind history have we seen the growths and margins parallel to Nvidia either

[@richardc755]

Sven, very nice!

[@josephlombardo1267]

Totally agree but does the historical norm counts or there are factors post-80s that determine higher allocations to US equities compared to pre-80s? Globalization of financial markets, reduction of total number of companies, TINA phenomena...

[@George-f8h]

Whether I die next week or 20 years from now, I still eat today. That's how I approach investing. The only thing I change is what I eat/invest in.

[@PsyK0man]

Hi Sven, let's go back to the basics, why do you think that the PE ratio is a good metric to look at? It seems to me that there are more people financially literate willing to put money (or gamble) in the stock market these days, and that's what's driving the PE ratios. My question is, will this revert or should we get used to higher ratios?

[@Value-Investing]

at the end it is about comparing to other opportunities too!

[@jonesmatthew7511]

The problem is inflation. Prior to 1973 we were on a gold standard, Much of the gains are nominal and disappear when you adjust for the gold price. For instance the price of gold in 1973 was $35 USD, and over the last 50 years it has gone up to $2700 today all due to increasing the amount of USD currency units into the system increasing the "nominal" price of assets, goods and services.

[@Witnessmoo]

You say it’s a bubble but it all makes total sense when you consider inflation, and the fiscal deficit every government is running which makes fixed income securities hugely risky!

[@MathildaCarina]

Investments are the roots of financial security; the deeper they grow, the stronger your future will be."

[@GraceOliviaf7y]

The deeper your investment roots, the stronger your financial security will be in the future.

[@guillermocrespo8144]

you know about log scale right... it makes it much less impressive, also you could adjust returns for inflation on the period....

[@Forconia]

But how much of it is inflation? Is it real growth?

[@Value-Investing]

a lot is inflation, but that has to be included and always will be a component of investing!

[@trewadventures7034]

Could you do an analysis on Enbridge inc? P/E 20.06 - 6.02% dividends 👀

[@pb6481]

I think that the risk of such a video is, that people might consider to stop dollar cost averaging into a low cost ETF that is well diversified. Even though the point of the dollar-cost-average strategy is to keep thinking out of the buying. You automatically buy more if the price would go lower, while you also participate if the market stays over valued until even valuation catches up. (I'm not qualified to give financial advice, it's just my thoughts)

[@kevinho4504]

Follow the benner cycle , it is the most accurate predictor of buy and sell indicator

[@Albannas]

PE is misleading, Sven check PEG and problem is solved

[@Ari.M2007]

He won't, he's stuck in the the 90s to early 2000s of market mentality. He's going to use fancy models to show that he has a PhD while ignoring the glaring truth in front of us. The market of today doesn't care about P/E ratio, younger and younger people are putting their money in the market and trading isn't controlled only by Wall Street anymore.

[@MyOrangeString]

Sure the market is expensive "as a market" but to the individual stock buyer, is this a big issue? Have you some insights on which stocks actually drive this growth? I'm thinking Tesla and Nvidia drive much of the exhuberance, but Google and Amazon seem reasonable to me.

[@dogstermcwuff]

If you exclude the big ships like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft…the broad market does look fairly valued.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@erichong4786]

Nvidia isn't actually overvalued. Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft though... yeah they might be a bit overvalued.

[@eco-enjoyer]

Which means you agree with him. Big ships = overvalued. Rest = fair valued. Where is the upside?

[@pongop]

@@erichong4786 of course Nvidia is overvalued. and eventually it will crash

[@lettuceforbuns]

Can you show inflation adjusted next time? Appreciate the videos

[@testaaa88]

That the American market is expensive there is no doubt, but I certainly would not compare it with the same market of 25 years or more ago. U.S. corporate profits were much lower than they are today, and while it is true that profits drive long-term performance, a higher ratio might be the norm.

[@Peter-df2ip]

Sven, you showed that the lowest PE ratio was in 1979 in recent times. That year loosely coincides with the elimination of defined benefit pensions by companies in the USA and 401k and Roth became the vehicles of choice for retirement savings. This resulted in the rise of private investment managers and regular people were more and more invested in stocks and derivatives like mutual funds and ETF’s. Is it possible that this higher demand for investment vehicles pushed and still pushes the valuation higher, above pre-1980’s + levels?

[@jasonalexander7089]

Hi Sven. The stock market took 120 years to build up dignity and it has all been lost these last 4 years

[@aperson1181]

Thank you for the video and your insightful review it is difficult to see at the end what you're showing because you added advertisement slides to the last five minutes of the presentation

[@Frank-yx1np]

Pls also say is the top 20 companies that boosted,,,like the googles, apple Microsoft, Tesla , chips,,,,,not the majority!

[@960john]

False. look at quality consumer staples and industrials! P/E about 25 or 30, for companies growing at 4% a year

[@m4758406]

It's not a bubble. In the past, a few investors like Buffett achieved enormous returns, but today many people use ETFs with savings plans and have very quick access to information. This means that many are effectively taking away returns from people like Buffett. As a result, it’s no longer as easy for Buffett to make "easy money." Buffett now has to settle for much lower returns because he has to share with millions of small investors who no longer face the disadvantage of high bank fees. They all have online access with low fees. These small investors are happy with, for example, a 5% return. 5% is better than nothing. 5% is not a bubble; it's just half of 10%-so what?

[@Value-Investing]

I don't think investors understand the earnings yield! They just see things going up!

[@pongop]

there might even be an index fund bubble

[@TheScaryGermanGuy]

People simply investing their money into an ETF without knowing anything is the bubble.

[@hurlentropy6866]

What about IONQ ASTS DRUG Detached from fundamentals

[@OldHorsemen]

TINA, het risico op inflatie lijkt mij hoger dan het risico op de beurs.

[@Value-Investing]

ook!

[@evilhorde8151]

The inflated PE ratio is mostly from big tech companies and funnily enough those companies are the most recession resistant. Unless you are talking about literal armageddon, nuclear war, global blackout or the end of internet. But in this case you losing your life savings will be the least of your worries.

[@hurlentropy6866]

IONQ? DRUG?

[@matteotardivo7010]

how many videos you wanna keep do sven? 7 of 10 are doom and crash hahahaha

[@themusic6808]

He’s a fear mongering perma bear who buys failing companies at 10 times earnings so he can feel righteous lol Would not expect anything more from him.

[@javiervazquez9591]

Ahhaha everything goes up and it never going to stop.. right? Sven is one of the greatest in YT. He has nothing to proof, you don't like him? Go to watch other YT with clickbait videos about Nvidia and Metaverse 🤣

[@matteotardivo7010]

@@javiervazquez9591 i like him, but he is very delusional for this year. He is calling something "wrong and expensive" from late 2023.. hard life for stock pickers

[@matteotardivo7010]

@@javiervazquez9591 nah just be consistent also with btc, he also lost that train. He lost so many trains during this 2 years, but hey "value stock picker" is dead from ages. He need to sell you the course.

[@cnmike1988]

Perm bear making people missing out on gains as usual lmfao

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@thomaskismul8541]

Nobody got rich over time by following the sheep herd

[@cnmike1988]

@@thomaskismul8541 keep underperforming lmfao

[@SomeGuy-ws5zj]

Take a look at Argentina stonk MERVAL. Forever bubble. Why? Peso ARS. Are you 100% sure that the elephant 🐘 in the room is not the USD? Are you sure that the Y axis (USD) is the perfect freeze hipótesis for every economic theorem?

[@USASMR-o2c]

When one considers that gold has had an 86% return in the last 5 years, a 92% percent return for the SP500 doesn't seem that far-fetched.

[@BrandonRodriguez283]

the way I see it is that we gotta play the game with the rules that drive the market at any one cicle. Momentum has been the name of the game for the last 2 years. Value plays are just starting to break out, so that might be the place to be now.

[@parkerbohnn]

I need to preserve wealth not be a hero and shoot for billionaire status.

[@BrandonRodriguez283]

​@@parkerbohnn I wish you accomplish that :) all the best

[@Deepzombie]

More people are invested in the market, maybe lower yield from the stock market is the new normal. Look at housing costs in parts of the world, many are indebted for life to have somewhere to live. Likely the market will drop 50% within ten years but not now since we are in a boom cycle.

[@YieldQuest]

Is okay to get outperformed by the index.

[@mmmom6469]

Cheap valuation buy all in

[@Bfblair]

Put Evvty on your risk reward chart please.

[@jackgoldman1]

Stocks are NOT up in gold or silver. Stocks are only up in IOUs. It is an IOU debt bubble, not honest price increases.

[@GregF-k7w]

So if we’re in a bubble how do we invest our millions ?

[@Value-Investing]

Buffett is in Treasuries, so you see!

[@hansschotterradler3772]

Put $1M in the S&P, $1M in treasuries, and $1M in real estate.

[@extramild1]

IMHO - Wall St. is one thing and the High Street is another thing. The kind of companies that are in the stock market eg Microsoft, Amz, Uber etc are amazing and doing things that companies just did'nt do in the past. If Microsoft wants to double its earnings it just needs to sell more software which has almost zero marginal cost. If US Steel wanted to sell more steel there are large marginal costs in shipping steel around the place. Maybe the market is not over-valued maybe the market is actually fairly valued because the kind of companies in the stock market is different then the past? Maybe this time it different Sven?

[@eco-enjoyer]

Society has finally woken up to the value of a business. A profitable business is a money tree. It's worth more than 5 times earnings. 15x makes sense. 30x does not make a lot of sense. The United States has been, is, and will always be a capitalist society. It's the most innovative society on the planet. As long as US companies continue to innovate, all will benefit. If a time comes when people no longer desire such innovation (who really wants AI?) all will come crashing down. Be careful. Invest wisely. Use stop losses. Live life!

[@pongop]

it's won't always be a capitalist society. well, unless it's capitalist until the end. capitalism will not last forever and nation-states/empires will not last forever. capitalism will end, hopefully sooner than later. we don't all benefit from us companies. the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

[@georgedayoub2893]

People just ignore the fact that USA has become world leader in almost every industry and yet they compare it to 1950s. Yes this time is different and it has been different for last 44 years, people who say that this words are not true are delusional because they ignored the last 44 years.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@gregorsimon9337]

Great video. I'm asking myself for a long time how the stock market is influenced by demographics. With the 80s the boomer generation started their career and paid into pension funds which are a powerful influence on the market. How will markets react when all these boomers and pension funds start to sell their assets to finance the retirement?

[@tamanousJP]

You get Japan

[@gregorsimon9337]

@tamanousJP I'm invested in a Japanese cementary and undertaker small cap company.

[@jonnes__4657]

🗽 It is really insane: Consumer staples are known to be defensive... the annual performance in EUR has been slightly negative for Europes Consumer Staples so far, while the MSCI World in EUR (TR) is at +32% and gold at +42%. This shows how extremely weak these defensive equity sectors have been in Europe this year, despite the war. The german MDAX (TR) is also slightly negative over 1 year -- keyword green german deindustrialization. .

[@jackgoldman1]

US public debt $5 Trillion in 2,000. US public debt in 2024, $35 Trillion, up 7x in debt expansion only. Debt bubble? The Dow has been 18 ounces of gold, same as 1929, since 2017, every year, zero gains in honest measures.

[@stefvanloon8988]

Buffett claims that he would get an annual return of 50% by investing in sub 1B MCAP companies if he had to start again as a "small" investor i.e. < 1M in invested capital... I believe he is right about that. What is your take on this and how would you approach this "Buffett Challenge"?

[@Value-Investing]

I have a 50% section on my research platform, I think 2 out of 4 from last year actually did it :-) and the third is close!

[@hurlentropy6866]

I've done 45% annualized returns in 1.5 years (Since April 2023) and 85% since Nov 2023. If I can do that, I'm sure Buffet can manage 50+ in 10+ years I bet most people are over 20% returns this year.

[@rocking1313]

We have winner-takes-it-all business models which did not exist until 2000s, support from Central Banks and passive investing into index funds...

[@potomac5466]

What if you dont see a deflationary crash but an inflationary crash? 😮

[@badboybs98]

Expansion of money supply

[@Value-Investing]

that too

[@shabpnd481]

u cant use p/e ratio from old times to now because the money supply is not the same

[@CitizenOK]

Of course you can. The stock prices and earnings go up with inflation. If anything the debt levels are higher then ever.

[@viktorianas]

so earning LESS per invested $1 with MORE money supply is better for you? 🤡

[@shabpnd481]

@@CitizenOK money devaluate so need higher p/e

[@TheScaryGermanGuy]

@@shabpnd481 it is a "ratio" so it should not be affected by the amount of money available. Sorry, but what you are saying makes no sense.

[@CitizenOK]

@@shabpnd481 earnings and prices are adjusting with inflation- DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I AM SAYING???

[@0680496]

You can't just look at the PE ratio, you have to look at PEG ratio with takes into account growth of earnings! Growth of earning now is much higher than the growth in the 1980s..

[@Nemi51500515]

This is true. What is also true is that the growth rate changes when there is an economic downturn. This acts as a negative multiple in the opposite direction. As they say, trees don’t grow to space, and growth does not continue get bigger and bigger.

[@NurhanBerk]

If you include in the calculations the Inflation and the content of the index(as companies), you will found out that 30 PE is not that insane number. I am not saying it is normal, but it definitely is not exuberant.

[@TTTT-sj3vz]

Oil consumption ath ,electricty ath and set to spike with ai , more data center ev solar panels chips plus now space rockets,we are consuming resources like there is no tomorrow unlike the past century ,the "bubble" you solve it by increasing inflation to not default look at turkey people lost value of their currency but the country still runs and everyone is working ,so until you have people that sit at home watching tv and doing nothing you cant say we are at a recession

[@dieseldavebrown]

I agree with your premise, however using the same chart (I tried to cut and paste it but couldn't), I believe we have been in a bull market since either 2009 or 2014 (depending on whether you use the bottom of the last bear market or when the present bull market exceeds the highs of the last bull/bear). We are over due for a 10-20% correction which could lead to a bear market (underperformance for the next decade as Goldman Sachs suggested). My suggested catalyst will be rising inflation due to Trump's policies followed by the fed raising interest rates and Trump firing Powell which will lead to a market collapse.

[@jackgoldman1]

By the way, Dow 18 ounces of gold in 1929 and 2024. Zero gain in honest measures. Only a gain in dishonest IOUs. Surprise, income taxes go up, up, up using IOUs creating a monster runaway government waging world wars. We need less government and more productive people creating honest real wealth, thus your excellent show, VALUE investing. Yes. VALUE. REAL STUFF.

[@knowthenewz903]

Gold price in 1980: $850, Today: $2,700 (217% nominal gain over 40 years). Dow Jones in 1980: 850, Today: 41,000 (4,723% nominal gain over 40 years). The gains you mention are due to gold prices being depressed by the Gold Standard and then adjusting in the 1970's. Since then, gold and stocks have performed very differently. The Dow to Gold ratio would not capture dividend reinvesting and those being compounded either.

[@jackgoldman1]

@@knowthenewz903 You can cherry pick gold lows and highs, stocks lows and highs and get any number you want. basically stocks rise due to currency debasement.

[@willwei1162]

trailing PE means nothing, you need to look at Forward multiples.

[@davidyuli]

Cigar butt investing is the methodology you follow, which you missed a lot of great business in decades

[@pongop]

it's okay to miss businesses. don't give in to FOMO. invest in value that you understand.

[@davidyuli]

@@pongop it is Not OK.

[@pongop]

@@davidyuli Everyone has to find what works for them. Good luck chasing after the hot stocks.

[@pongop]

Sven is a long-term value investor

[@Kabul-v2h]

Mr. Doomer Admit you have been wrong about the stock market bubble, you said 4 years ago we were in a bubble. (Your oldest Video)

[@pongop]

Yes, it's a 40+ year bubble and we're still in it. Markets always crash.

[@hansschmidt8292]

The weekly crash video 😊

[@nyktal]

PE is a shit metric, i bought MU in 2018 at a cheap "6 PE" and was left bag holding for years

[@eddy563]

but there should be a reason: interest rates will go up because... complete this sentence Sven (using coherent argument), then everybody will believe your thesis. you might be right, but we cannot say interest rates will go up just because this it was down in recent years; doesn't make any sense

[@Value-Investing]

good point, I am not saying rates will go up, just that those might be higher than currently expected due to the fundamentals of government debts etc...

[@AnyangU]

If the US government takes on austerity measures, we could see a crash.

[@Nowhere-from]

Sven, maybe your bubble point may have been better received if you had presented as a reverse crash, and focused more in the 60s than the 70s. It's become normal to make comparisons between today and the 70s, but your graph clearly showed the real crash spread all over the 60s. You just moved too quickly when starting the video, and in fact should've continue with the original presentation inflation adjusted. Thus, the bubble crash financial influencers love to warn us about may not be noticeable, yet still real. The 60s was a soft landing, the type everybody prefers over a sudden crash, but it dragged on for a decade. It was like the 30s, but smooth and nobody cared because stocks were much less important than today, plenty of people back then had personal memories of times when stocks were an important business and ended up in the great depression. That generation had to die and let new and unexperienced people to go back to investing, and move the USA from industrial focus to financial one.

[@Deepfknvalue]

I want to see portfolio with ALL THE SHORT POSITIONS. Put money where your mouth is. Check the amount of Money and M2 printed during covid times, where does the money go to? The goddamn market. Never short against USA

[@pongop]

the usa and europe are falling

[@Lil.stuntrr]

Funny how you choose specifically july 1982 as your month for comparison. In july 1982 stocks was lower than before the 1929-1932 Great Depression, adjusted for inflation. You scew your data to an extend to where your analysis is useless just to prove a point. Your PhD must be very theoretical rather than empirical.

[@Value-Investing]

I take the end of the previous bear market and the date when the new bull started :-) It is just how it was :-)

[@SomeGuy-ws5zj]

May be, may be is not a market bubble and is an hiperinflation begining process. I know about inflation, but all of you in Europe and EEUU don't have it in your worldview. I have lived two, you none. They start very slowly

[@shabpnd481]

is not a bubble is just an expansion of the money supply

[@960john]

higher money supply means lower interest rates, right? If central banks hike rates and do quant. tightening, that reduces money supply.

[@eco-enjoyer]

The money printing ended a while back.

[@shabpnd481]

@@eco-enjoyer still 8 trillion already exist it cant just vaporize into the air

[@shabpnd481]

@@960john higher interest rates because can use yield trade exploit like bitcoin pump by Michael Saylor

[@PaulSmith-zt7ix]

1980s is when congress changed law to have retirement funds buy stocks in usa

[@sharedknowledge162]

interesting

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!

[@thomaskismul8541]

Thank you for the video sven! Im happy to hear comments and media that this time is different. Nobody got rich over time by herd mentality. You get rich by disagreeing with consensus, especially extreme pessimism because then all bad things are priced into the stocks. "Abnormally good or abnormally bad conditions do not last forever" - Benjamin Graham

[@1boi593]

dude there is no bubble. the bubble is in your head.

[@matthewrogerson9119]

Sven great ideas S and p is a bubble- Wrong Short Tesla- WTF Sell all Berkshire Hathaway- crazy Stick to lecturing or whatever you do for a day job.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for commenting!

[@petervegh3671]

You are missing one important factor from your analysis which cannot be quantified. People are irrational

[@jackgoldman1]

I measure the super bubble from June 1932, Dow $42, two ounces of gold. Now $42,000, up 1000x in IOUs, not in gold. We could all live in 50% less, doubling up, three generation families. Some would enjoy this, some not.

[@Value-Investing]

good point!

[@tsonez]

Good reminder of current market risk. Interest has really decreased over time if we look back to ancient Babylonia around 3000 BC where interest was whopping 33%. Note however, debt seems to have been then abolished with the new ruler (smashing the clay tablets). So perhaps that makes the 33% a fair interest...? (See first chapter of "The Price of Time" book.) Anyway, since around early 1700s interest has been fluctuating around 3-5% -- which is around the current level. So this time is no different (except perhaps for smashing the clay tablets).

[@Value-Investing]

interest works in cycles, the market is pricing in 2%, not 5%, big difference!

[@andychau123]

I would consider it as a result of the dropping of US dollar value to assets.

[@Value-Investing]

one of the reasons, plus an expansion in valuaiton!

[@David-m5c5k]

Sven, thank you very much for producing and posting these videos. I hope they keep the viewers from making stupid moves or at least make them think about the risks involved in the stock market speculation . The US Stock Market was overvalued 25 years ago and the Japanese stock market (Nikkei index) was overvalued 40 years ago. Nevertheless both markets continued to run for a number of years after the gross over evaluation was noted. No doubt that at some point in the future, the US Stock Market will tank and most likely repeat the Japanese market trajectory. Just knowing this doesn't help. Timing is everything. The good news is that due to the mechanics of the nearing US market downfall, there will be sufficient time to reallocate funds. I think we are coming closer to that moment. We are OK, while the world's money keeps flowing to the United States stock market. I think it will be very difficult to miss the point where money starts going to places like China. And that will start the positive feedback loop of withdrawing funds from the US.

[@_al_c2638]

I like your maths, you're getting better

[@Value-Investing]

:-)