IONQ Stock Update | A Hype Problem

[@mickeyb492]

I'm glad I found this video and channel. I recently stumbled on IONQ and invested in a small position, but have been wary of the hype and FOMO going on in the market currently with NVIDIA. I really believe in this technology and want it to succeed, but your critical analysis keeps me an informed investor and not investing out of hope. It's good to keep grounded and only invest with pure facts. Thank you!

[@Nanalyze]

You are most welcome, and you're exactly the type of investor we want to attract. This video has attracted many cheerleaders who think deriding critical analysis is the best way to cheerlead a "stonk" to greater highs. Amateur hour behavior, when serious investors always want to hear the most critical analysis of stocks they "love" the most. We always take an objective approach (such as what's seen in this video) across all the nearly 470 tech stocks we cover. Great to have you as a subscriber Mickey!

[@mickeyb492]

@@Nanalyze couldn’t agree more. I have a personal interest in Quantum Computing, and I want IonQ to succeed, but driving up a stocks price with no fundamentals behind it is only setting them up for failure.

I also came across a couple of young guys at Broken Business Models that recently did a couple videos on IONQ, and frankly was impressed with some of their findings that you wouldn't hear from anyone else.

[@Nanalyze]

Will have to check it out, thank you for the heads up.

[@LDP..]

Thank you for the video !! I was considering to do some DCA today to cap some of my profits , and you gave me the extra push i needed . i dont know why but it is so difficult to sell ! you always want that bit extra

[@Nanalyze]

Glad you enjoyed the video but we don't advise investors jump in and out of stocks. When you invest in a company, you should do so with conviction. So what changed between when you first decided to go long and when you decided to sell? There are only two reasons we sell a tech stock: when growth stalls or our thesis changes. Using DCA is always a good idea so you avoid trying to time the market!

[@LDP..]

@@Nanalyze i am still convinced in the stock ! But i want to profit from the whole overvaluation. I am also less convinced in the whole stability of the stock market for the coming 12 months , so i want to take some of the profits i made since november . I also only evaluate my portfolio every 6months to avoid jumping in and out

[@Nanalyze]

@@LDP.. Makes sense. Just make sure you try and apply as much objectivity as possible to remove human emotion.

[@edz35]

Another fantastic analysis. I have a position in IonQ but your videos keep my feelings on the stock grounded. Revenues are a concern however I’m impressed by their partnerships (Hyundai, Accenture, military contracts etc) as well as their clear roadmap to meaningful algorithmic qubits.

[@joepiv]

Really appreciate that and always glad to hear from longs who see the usefulness in our critical approach to investing. If they can get steady revenue growth with less customer concentration and start looking more like a SaaS company we'd be interested. It is the best way to play QC for a publicly traded pure-play.

[@edward3342]

I got in @ $3.45. I'm holding long

[@Nanalyze]

Be prepared for a volatile ride

Love your work and I try to watch a couple or your videos every day. I actively trade (long and short) stocks (including IONQ currently) and this is some of the most impressive investing research I've come across and probably saved me a few times from bad decisions. You're a great counterforce to some of the market insanity and pump-and dumps of the past few years. Keep up the awesome work!

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you for the kind words! We will keep it up.

[@davidbest8912]

$1.4 Billion cap on less than $20 million revenue. Losses expected to increase from 20 to $80 million 2023.

[@joepiv]

They have the cash to support the losses, it's the minimal revenues that's the main problem. When they get to the $50 million mark we might be interested at the right valuation, provided they've been able to get rid of the customer concentration risk. And none of that related party stuff.

[@davidbest8912]

@@joepiv Hype train.. Short medium term

[@vics429]

So how much did you short?

[@Nanalyze]

And ladies and gentleman, the first cheerleader crawls out from under a rock. What facts presented in this video do you disagree with? Don't be lazy. Be specific.

[@Nanalyze]

Seems like you've been a subscriber for a while so maybe you're just taking the piss? Anyways, here's why we don't short stocks: kzbin.info/www/bejne/l6KycqF4abaiebM

[@Juinor]

really good video. I was wondering why Ionq today jump to $11 and back to $9. Like you say, this stock is very volatile

[@Nanalyze]

It certainly is. It's being fueled by a lot of hype lately. The current valuation is not realistic for a company with such small revenues. The market is pricing in a sunshine-filled future when in reality we need to see a lot more traction. Quantum computing always seems to be "just 5 years away". Thanks for the kind words on the video! -Wyatt C.

Wow, just wow! And now their CSO is out! Of course the initial reaction is always bad, but not sure what to make of this one yet. This company is just full of fireworks.

[@Nanalyze]

We don't have much incentive to research the latest news, but the CSO who left - and co-founder - established the related party connections with universities that we saw as a red flag. Wonder what the impact will be on those relationships, or if it had something to do with those relationships. At any rate, our original concerns still hold true.

What I don't get is how analysts at some of the world's most prestigious banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, etc. put up price targets up to $20.

[@Nanalyze]

These price targets are largely useless because they focus on the short-term price movement of stocks, not the long-term potential of companies. It's pointless to focus on what short-term price targets might be achieved on the upside. Why not focus on what buyers of quality companies should want to see - prices to be as low as possible?

[@SmithnWesson]

Far too negative. By the same train of thought, neither Microsoft nor IBM would ever have sold a computer. New technologies are new. But they can also be profoundly impactful. AI wasn't making any money until it was. Quantum computing will not make any money until it does.

[@Nanalyze]

Try realistic. When even the experts can't tell when quantum supremacy has been achieved (numerous firms claim to have achieved it), the only ground truth is revenues. The old Microsoft/Tesla/IBM analogies add zero value to this conversation.

[@Romulus2099]

Is there any way you can make a video on Matterport? Maybe some of your thoughts and ideas? Thank you for all your videos!

[@Nanalyze]

We covered them earlier this year: www.nanalyze.com/2023/01/digital-transformation-matterport-stock/

[@Romulus2099]

@Nanalyze Thank you! I've never been to your website, so that's really cool! I know the company hit a 52-week low today, so I just wanted to see your thoughts on the company since it was one of those metaverse hype stocks. Thank you again so much!

[@xercesss]

Once again, very good video. Totally agree with the approach. I bought some shares because my portfolio is mainly biotech/pharma and I believe Quantum will help for drug discovery and interactions in the future (2030 and more).

[@Nanalyze]

Very refreshing to hear someone who is long appreciate the work we do. If you're long a firm, the best thing you can come across is someone who holds an opposing thesis. We'll need to see revenues increase and valuation decline. For those who are already long, it's a waiting game now :)

[@xercesss]

​@@Nanalyze A waiting game indeed. I'll buy more if the revenue increases and valuation declines. Keep up the good work nanalyze team (the only videos I watch regarding stocks)

[@Archangel20]

Good analysis. Retired Actuary here. Steeping myself in personal quantum computing research. I do not pretend to be anything other than a dabbler. Am I correct in assuming that the primary azimuth for these companies is AI integration?

[@joepiv]

Hey John. It's a lot more complicated than we'd like to be honest. Perhaps the most important thing to note here is that there are dozens of startups dabbling with a small number choosing the SPAC route. Not surprisingly, they all told investors they're the furthest ahead. ;) Some of the biggest tech firms are pouring billions into QC. Even the experts can't tell where we're at right now. That's why we consider revenues the most important ground truth.

This company smells like Bionano Genomics, but for the QC field. BNGO stock skyrocketed a couple years ago on genomics revolutionary hype even though revenue was paltry (not meaningful), profitability was unlikely to ever arrive, and now the stock recently did a reverse split and is still crashing. The IONQ bulls love to boast how they have the most powerful and advanced quantum computer, but it seems like all the other many public and private players say the same thing, so the markets will probably suss it all out in a few years maybe.

[@Nanalyze]

The ground truth is what customers are willing to pay for - not related parties.

[@matthewkeim5421]

Love your work. Please cover AST Spacemobile.

[@Nanalyze]

Really glad to hear! Ask and ye shall receive: kzbin.info/www/bejne/qKipi515aaekgas

[@adamhanninen8295]

Hey Joe another great one! I’m of the opinion QC is like synbio in that the early leaders don’t know how to become leaders, and the current leaders are waiting to acquire once a technology is proven. The tech is too speculative even for me

[@Nanalyze]

Glad you enjoyed Adam! The tech is indeed far too speculative right now. Perhaps those brainy AI algorithms can help researchers figure out how to reduce errors.

[@mel_camino]

I love when youtubers say companies are a bad investment. It usually ends up opposite (unless of course it is obvious). I will go with what Warren Buffet said: "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."

[@Nanalyze]

Great advice from the Oracle of Omaha. He also says it's better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price, so do bear that in mind. IONQ is not what we could consider a wonderful company. For the record, we'll never tell people to invest in - or not invest in - something. That's something that everyone needs to decide for himself or herself. -Wyatt C.

[@Nanalyze]

And our channel is staffed with experienced financial professionals, unlike all the "youtubers" out there having a circle jerk over whatever meme stock is being pushed on Reddit/Twitter.

[@meNtor890]

I think a Salesforce stock analysis would be in place now! They've been around a while, stuff is going on, activist investors are involved, perhaps they can get the company into shape. I heard Salesforce are good at getting a grip of their customers so the customer doesn't want to switch software.

[@Nanalyze]

Not the worst idea. They've seen a great deal of success over the years, and it might make a good "what's next now" piece.

[@bhuvaneshs.k638]

Now it's 2.0 Billion Market cap/ 22 Million revenue

[@Nanalyze]

SVR is as follows | 2005 / (4 * 6.11) = 82. That's valued nearly 4X as high as the richest stocks in our catalog such as NVIDIA. Ridiculously overpriced.

[@bhuvaneshs.k638]

@@Nanalyze do you think technology of IonQ is not working? This is more important question for me since I'll be doing masters in physics in Quantum computing specialisation

[@Nanalyze]

@@bhuvaneshs.k638 This is an excellent question. When even the experts can't tell you how quantum computers work, having one in the office and tinkering with it tells us nothing. Neither does reading the company's marketing collateral. The ONLY ground truth for whether a technology is economically viable (provides a service that people are willing to pay for) is by looking at revenue growth.

[@dirkdarwin2571]

For the technical folks... it's completing its IPO base

[@Nanalyze]

We don't do technical analysis here because we invest in companies, not stocks ;)

[@OM-vf1tc]

Sold this today at $11.50 will get back in around $5 😊

[@Nanalyze]

We don't jump in and out of stocks but to each his or her own ;)

[@chrishomann8422]

I also guess you didn't mention how they acquired a manufacturing facility that is still being built. The partnership with Dell on how they will use their sales team to cross sell their product. Currently, sure the financial ratios aren't favorable. But that can change with time.

[@Nanalyze]

There are a metric ton of things we didn't mention. This isn't about the bull thesis, this is a 15 minute analysis of the things we find unfavorable about the company. Now, what facts that we presented do you disagree with?

[@Nanalyze]

And per your earlier comment, if you'd like to contradict any of the facts raised in this video, we'll be waiting for that. Note that our forum is not a pulpit to spout your own bull thesis. We're here to discuss what's presented in our videos.

[@chrishomann8422]

@@Nanalyze Like I said you analysis on the current financials so far make sense. I am just saying that we should still give them time to execute. They have met a few milestones ahead of their expectations.

[@Nanalyze]

Gotcha Chris, thank you for the civil response! We're sticklers about revenues as they are the only ground truth for traction. So, we don't care about press release milestones, only financial milestones. Related revenues aside, they hit the $10 million mark now which is great to see. If they do the $18 million forecasted for this year we'll be really wanting to see where that's coming from. The tech stock graveyard is riddled with firms that just couldn't quite get there with their offering, thus there's every reason to approach with caution, especially given the subject matter and vast competition.

[@no_good_reason_to_bother]

I stay away now from quantum stocks, 3d printing, mj, space, and crypto. Have a tendency to get pumped and dumped.

[@Nanalyze]

We've observed this predictably over the the past few decades. I've talked to institutional money managers who subscribe to use just because we're able to identify these so predictably. However, retail investors should just walk away. Short and you will eventually blow up your account or underperform the market because the irrationality knows no ends. Be sure to subscribe to this channel as we have a video coming out on quantum hype next week :) kzbin.info

[@lawLess-fs1qx]

Nov 2024 YTD -10% SHARE PRICE 29.05

[@Nanalyze]

We invest in companies, not stocks. Same old hype story as the thing gets pumped by all the apes. We have a video coming out on this massively pumped stock.

[@Anthony-dj4nd]

Got caught up in the hype but realized they have no real world applications for quantum computing. The entire industry is hype😊

[@Nanalyze]

The industry is only worth what its clients are willing to pay for. When even the experts can't tell us what works or doesn't, we revenues are the only ground truth.

[@dirkdarwin2571]

Ahhhhh, but future valuation

[@Nanalyze]

We've seen this hype before.

[@이빌리-n4q]

you need to translate to korean because 30% of whole stock belongs to them.

[@Nanalyze]

Can you elaborate on that statement for the rest of the class? We don't just do stuff when people bark orders at us. Our focus in on paying subscribers who pay our bills.

[@joepiv]

Turns out the second biggest country to view the video is Korea (at 6% of total views). We'll see if this is easy enough to do! Good call, but we still don't understand the reasoning why. ;)

[@TheMrSlyxx]

It appears you guys are short sellers

[@Nanalyze]

The old "you're short" BS? That's all you can say? We don't short ever, so take your baseless accusations elsewhere. So, what facts presented do you disagree with exactly?

[@lostlandmarks8305]

👑

[@Nanalyze]

Your eyes look a bit glazed. Have you been smoking the devil's lettuce young man?

[@Nanalyze]

Oh, it's the crown emoji, appropriately used to show appreciation for a video well done. :) Thank you for that!