The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook with Paul Johnson

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Paul Johnson is the economist who has set the terms of so much political debate over the past few decades in Britain. Having served as Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies since 2011, his expertise on matters of public spending and global economic trends have provided invaluable insight to the public and policymakers alike. Johnson’s column for the Times, as well as his acclaimed Austerity Audit for Radio 4, continue to define public discourse on economic policy and its implications.
In October 2024 Johnson brought his expertise to the Intelligence Squared stage to reflect on a year of seismic change and assess the impact of the 2024 general election on the country’s economic future. Does Starmer have what it takes to grow the economy? How can Britain hope to compete with innovation in tech and AI on the global stage? What shape should defence spending take in an increasingly volatile world, and how can we begin to tackle domestic issues such as child poverty, cost of living, a crippled NHS and a stubborn housing crisis?
The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook is presented in partnership with Guinness Global Investors. To find out more visit: www.guinnessgi...
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Intelligence Squared has established itself as the leading forum for live, agenda-setting debates, talks and discussions around the world. Our aim is to promote a global conversation that enables people to make informed decisions about the issues that matter, in the company of the world's greatest minds and orators.
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[@festerarl6653]

I simply love listening to this guy. He is so engaging and knowledgable. He is my first 'go to' person when I want to the know the truth of the situation. Simply excellent.

[@SimonHunt-n5f]

Superb…

[@alexm7310]

Excellent speaker 😊

[@lawLess-fs1qx]

Debt is 100% of GDP. Ireland WAS 130% IN 2013. Now it is 40%. The Irish grew their economy to reduce the debt levels. Why is this not a viable strategy ?

[@danielwebb8402]

@@lawLess-fs1qx Even ireland don't use their own gdp figure. As it is make believe. They use an adjusted GNI metric.

[@MargaretDeakin-d6m]

Some would say that things have already gone wrong when so few people hold most of the wealth, and able to buy our biggest assets. EG Houses, properties, land. Surely innequality is the most damning issue in the UK? Paul seems to be saying that the UK is doing OK, but he shows no interest in who holds all the wealth, and how miserable many lives are under this system.

[@paulbrightwell3621]

What is being overlooked in this presentation is the impact of AI / automation of most jobs that will increase efficiency and reduce price of everything - including energy. Economists need to really think about this more

[@sinjinsmythe1571]

As A.I takes over production..... what use are jobs and careers..... getting rid of work is as detrimental as getting rid of the urge to worship a devine entity!!

[@paulbrightwell3621]

@@sinjinsmythe1571 AI will take over production and ultimately all jobs that don't have as a requirement the need to be human - so sports and some areas of the creative arts, music etc where the population demand that it originates from a fellow human being and not a machine will still thrive and probably AI will help increase creativity and ability in these areas. As far as anything else that we currently think about as 'work' it will be taken over by AI because they will be able to do it better, cheaper etc. Governments will need to think about how they can support a population that is out of work and my best guess is that they will introduce some form of Universal Basic Income - that will be funded through taxing those companies producing the AI - essentially a tax on using our information that the AI needs. In other words - one aspect of 'work' in the future once AI becomes fully established will be simply about living your lives - which increasingly will be online but also observed offline by the AI systems, including humanoid robots that will be in our homes helping us. There will also most likely be other jobs but they probably wont look like jobs to us and most likely quite self indulgent - but on the other hand, people in the future looking back on what we do as jobs will also most likely think that many of those jobs are also quite odd and not worthy of them - in the same way that we may well look upon someone putting out the gas lights in the street pre-electricity as irrelevant and antiquated. The key point I am making is there appears to be a lack of foresight to start thinking about what a society dominated by AI will mean for our economy. This isn't that far away. Open AI's Sam Altman is predicting that they will achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2028/29 and Artificial Super Intelligence by around 2032. Open AI, Tesla etc are already planning the production of humanoid robots for sale from around late 2025. Chatgpt01 is already able to replicate human reasoning skills and plans to introduce the next stage towards AGI - AI agents will be happening from 2025. There are only a further 3 sub stages to AGI - innovation, teams and organizations and all this progress is speeding up not slowing down. Everyone needs to understand this and be prepared - we are already in a technological revolution that will make the industrial revolution look like child's play compared to the changes that are happening.

[@davidlai399]

Shareholders, not consumers, will reap the benefits. That’s been the case for the past few decades.

[@danielwebb8402]

Really enjoyed this. Disagree that council tax is "indefensible". It is not clear that the (current or original) purpose of council tax is to subsidise Sunderland. If you think the moral principle of a local tax to cover local services is actually ti be a local proxy income tax, but to be used nationwide not locally for redistribution of wealth then say that. But that sounds like you think council tax should be not a local but a nationwide income tax. Which is cute, but again say that. "Bin council tax, increase national income tax".

[@khairulnaeim756]

🥱😴

[@ThomasBoyd-d7j]

He third position no he US conservative Thomas Casey cole. Thanks England London Britain.

[@ThomasBoyd-d7j]

Can Hurt me no USA warned him Thomas with Italy. Did fancy him yes. Not work Casey cole he born 1992.

[@Stoddardian]

Wages have hardly grown the last 15 years. I wonder why. Maybe it's because the country has been flooded with cheap labor?

[@davidthompson797]

Does he really think that the government has to raise taxation before it can spend? In reality there is no such thing as "tax payer money" all government spending is by new money creation so the problem is not finding the money but finding the resources the money is created in order to buy. That is what our politics should be about.

[@notgiven3114]

You seem to be divorced from reality.

[@Stoddardian]

The UK isn't the US. It doesn't have the global reserve currency and the most powerful military anymore.

[@CurtOntheRadio]

Governments certainly can have short term effect on growth etc - take Lizz Truss, for instance. Or one could print money. Granted, not much of it in the long term interest but that's the issue, isn't it - that short term Gov policy can have marked near-term effect, but be seriously negative to longer term interests.

[@Minimmalmythicist]

in the long term they can too, sometimes you don´t know the results until years down the road

[@CurtOntheRadio]

@@Minimmalmythicist Oh, for sure. It was the dismissal of short term impact that struck me. Obviously can't build a rail network overnight but that doesn't mean (usually disastrous) short term things can't have a big impact on growth.

[@khairulnaeim756]

Wonder they not send their paperwork to government about economy...are being rejected or they do nothing... talking like a pro but ... nothing at all probably 🥸

[@khairulnaeim756]

If you economy person, WHY silent when talking about shutting down coal.....if economy people hear this probably they will ...much better create new product from it ....🥸..why not ,is nothing from them at all...

[@khairulnaeim756]

Give you something to think about...what way or what method have to do ...rise English from second class to higher rank in society...🥸..