Iran attacks Israel | Ian Bremmer | Quick Take

In the Middle East, unprecedented strikes by Iran and its proxies against Israel. Clearly a very dangerous thing to do, but could have been a hell of a lot worse. What do I mean by that? Well, it is not World War III. Americans warned Iran not to hit the United States, and the Iranians gave a heads-up, days in advance.
Subscribe to GZERO on KZbin and turn on notifications (🔔): / @gzeromedia
Sign up for GZERO Daily (free newsletter on global politics): rebrand.ly/gze...
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take on a Sunday, which usually means something is not going well, and that is certainly the case in the Middle East, where you had unprecedented strikes by Iran and its proxies against Israel.
Now, on the one hand, clearly a very dangerous thing to do, on the other hand, could have been a hell of a lot worse. What do I mean by that? Well, it is not World War III. Americans warned Iran not to hit the United States, and the Iranians gave a heads-up, days in advance, through a number of actors, most importantly through Iraq. This reminds me very much of after the American servicemen and women, three were killed in Jordan, by an Iranian proxy. The Americans did not want a war to break out with the Iranians directly, waited about a week, gave a heads up through Iraq, of the kind of attack that the Americans were planning, waited four days, gave the Iranians a chance to basically prepare and get their own forces out, and warned them that if this were to happen again, there would be direct consequences, a direct strike on Iran itself.
In this case, you had the Iranian heads-up that gave the Americans and allies time to pre-position, to provide diplomatic support, both publicly and privately, to the Israelis. Send the head of CENTCOM to Israel, say that American support for Israel was ironclad, help ensure that the Israelis would be able to most effectively defend itself against the coming Iranian attack. That was, on the one hand, a really big deal by the Iranians that was meant to be a maximal display of force and a minimum likelihood of casualties. But still, there was a significant possibility of accident, that you could have a risk that would lead to a war directly between Iran and Israel. Something that the Americans desperately wanted to avoid because it would bring the US in. It would spike oil prices. It would probably mean the end of Biden's, potential of a second presidency. And it, of course, would also mean that Iran was going to get hit massively by the United States and Israel, something they wanted to avoid.
We saw hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles, many from proxies, but many from Iran itself, over 99% of which were taken down. And they were aimed solely at military targets in Israel. So again, lots of effort to try to reduce the risk but the potential that you would have had a number get through, accidentally hitting civilians or having significant military hit, that was a risk that the Iranians were prepared to take. So, it's a big deal, it’s a clear escalation, and it is certainly an effort by the Iranians to say, that if this is to happen again, that the likelihood that there will be a major war between Iran and Israel come what may, is very real. And the Iranians also said, and they said this before the missiles even hit their targets, or in the case of the vast majority of them were intercepted, said through the United Nations mission that this was directly in retaliation for the Israeli strike against an Iranian leader in Damascus, and that the matter, from Iran's perspective, should be considered closed.
Read more: www.gzeromedia...
Want to know more about global news and why it matters? Follow us on:
Instagram: / gzeromedia
Twitter: / gzeromedia
TikTok: / gzeromedia
Facebook: / gzeromedia
LinkedIn: / gzeromedia
Threads: threads.net/@g...
Subscribe to our KZbin channel and turn on notifications (🔔): / @gzeromedia
Sign up for GZERO Daily (free newsletter on global politics): rebrand.ly/gze...
Subscribe to the GZERO podcast: podcasts.apple...
GZERO Media is a multimedia publisher providing news, insights and commentary on the events shaping our world. Our properties include GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, our newsletter GZERO Daily, Puppet Regime, the GZERO World Podcast, In 60 Seconds and GZEROMedia.com
#QuickTake #Iran #Israel

[@GZEROMedia]

Thanks for watching! If you like the discussion, get more insights and analysis from GZERO Media and Ian Bremmer delivered to your inbox in our free daily newsletter: gzeromedia.com/subscribe.

[@christineodonnell2711]

Thank you very much for this helpful explanation.

[@rhena229]

Just because grandparents suffered horribly 80 years ago, the grand child isn’t entitled a free license to do the same to others. The world is watching!

[@blindfaith8777]

That’s true for all parties.

[@royghosn18]

@@blindfaith8777huh?

[@JorgeRzezak]

Please explain, because it is very Judeophobic your conclusion.

[@PauloAdriano-zo2ng]

​@@JorgeRzezak How's that? 🤔

[@blindfaith8777]

​@@royghosn18 Most of the tensions in this region are built around old grievances. Often when people make the above comment, they are only orienting it towards a single party, when in reality it should apply to all parties.

[@professorakiba434]

I have three questions: 1) Could Netanyahu use war with Iran or Hamas to keep himself in power indefinitely and that his goals may be to keep the war going? 2) Could an Israeli-Iran War impact Russia's war in Ukraine (thinking weapons support)? Could a US-Russian sponsored effort actually stabilize the situation (thinking that Russia does not want one of its prime weapons supporters to be distracted by conflict and the US does not want to get sucked into war with Iran)?

[@mozi3051]

Yes

[@alexpaun7384]

Very useful, thank you.

[@z3rorefluxz]

Always love your analysis and quick takes. Pls do one on the situation in Ukraine. What’s happening, where’s it going, risks, most likely outcome. Thanks

[@JordiVilanova]

You might remind your viewers that the attack was not only in retaliation for the killing of one of Iran's leaders, but a strike on a diplomatic mission, killing diplomatic staff, a direct breach of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, specifically art. 22, that “[t]he premises of the mission shall be inviolable”, and although it is not a first - we saw just weeks ago Ecuador violating the Mexican embassy - it is a dangerous precedent.

[@noahghost4476]

Don't tell somebody to fight clean when they get attacked by someone fighting dirty

[@Base612]

Ian is a very good analyst but when it comes to Israel he is exceedingly biased and hence an unreliable source

[@gadget00]

This is false; no diplomatic staff was killed. The embassy actually is still there. They bombed an annexed area of the embassy and only killed the high ranked officers, who were indeed liable for other attacks against Israel before

[@noahghost4476]

@@Base612 yeah, it's kind of infuriating watching him talk about it. That's very charitable of you to say he's a reliable source otherwise. But I don't think I can consider him reliable for anything if he can be so skewed on something like this. He certainly seems to have a thoughtful look on his face, I guess I can say that much for him.

[@jdotsalter910]

So Israel attacks an Iranian embassy which is a major escalatory move, and the US and Europe condemns and threatens the Iranian response which is not even close to proportional? Who is the aggressor here?

[@joebob-p3z]

Israel has a right to self defence. Iran never should have initiated the Oct 7 attack on Israel via their proxy hamas because a peace deal looked likely between Isreal and the Saudis after the success of Isreal making peace with United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco via the Abraham accords. Iran started this because they could see their position of power in the middle east slipping away as Israel made peace with its neighbors.

[@stephenl9463]

Yes the report was those generals at the Iranian Embassy were just playing checkers and having a relaxing mid-day meal before Israel took them out. No one knows why Israel would have attacked them. Something to do with Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad or something. These war things tend to muddy up the issues. The generals were probably really nice guys. A real shame.

[@jdotsalter910]

@@stephenl9463 who's report? The same people who say the slaughtered journalists, aid workers, civilians, and even Israeli hostages were "accidents" despite precision bombs through the logos on roofs of cars and professional sniper bullets in the heads of children?

[@JorgeRzezak]

Did you learned math in the school? 300 missiles, drones and ballistic missiles vs. a couple of bombs from a plane. 2 > 300 ?

[@PauloAdriano-zo2ng]

​@@JorgeRzezak Actually it was six missiles and and it was from an American F-35 flying over the Syria Owned, Israeli-Occupied Golan Heights. Furthermore, targetting an embassy or consulate building goes against the Geneva Conventions. Btw, some of your other comments herr are terribly biased and ignorant. Do better.

[@anishsuthar6466]

# Rest in peace rule based order **** The Israeli strikes against Syria are a flagrant violation of the country's sovereignty and international law.

[@gadget00]

and so are the Iranian strikes?

[@JorgeRzezak]

so, what are you going to do?

[@thekingofallblogs]

Isreal attacking an embassy was ridiculous. US should stop saying they will protect isreal, they can protect themselves

[@treyquattro]

that was probably Joey B's greatest blunder to date. He gives Netanyahu a kilometre and Netanyahu takes 100 miles.

[@Defective1313]

Netanyahu is acting with his own political interests in mind. If he lets the war calm down, then attention will turn to how he allowed such a massive failure in intelligence as to allow Oct 7th to happen, and he loses power once and for all. If, on the other hand, he uses his influence to keep the war from stabilizing, then he can try to cling to power. Personal Power Politics are antithetical to democracy and peace, and we are seeing that all across the west at large. Israel right now is merely another example.

[@ma228]

Why didn't Ian Brimmer speak out with a title "Israel attacked iran" when Israel attacked the embsssy?!

[@ma228]

Why didn't Ian Bremmer speak out with a title "Israel attacked iran" when Israel attacked the embsssy?! Double standard?! One side always has the right to defend and not the other?!

[@Laura-nn6fl]

Thank you so much, Ian Bremmer. I can only hope for world peace.

[@richardblock2458]

Iran launched 300 missiles against Israel in the hope that they wouldn't cause accidental damage? Ian, you are actually insane!

[@ShaiFishman]

THEY W E R E N O T AIMED AT MILITARY TARGETS - WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT?!

[@adambnz]

Solid balanced commentary as always. Much respect Ian.

[@JorgeRzezak]

Good review. Thanks Ian.

[@MarceloCarmello-y8s]

Thank you for sharing.

[@Doug-tc2px]

I hear people talking about WW3, here's my question, how many countries would need to be involved to be considered WW3? WW2 had at least 70.

[@PikeProductions23]

This is basically a touch more than normal saber rattling, and far below an escalation to total war

[@Mo-ix4ov]

When the world was watching the brave Iranian women fighting their oppressive fanatical Islamic regime, Ian was out taking a lunch break - not one segment or note about this titanic event in the geopolitical situation in the middle east. Now that the Islamic Republic has embarked on this dangerous road to war against Israel, it would be good for Ian and the Western world to take a minute to think about this missed opportunity which would have brought peace and stability to the middle east and world at this specific juncture. A stable, secular, democratic Iran is the foundation to peace and stability in the region. Apathy and a clear unwillingness to support the women, life, liberty movement in Iran has brought us to this time and point. Is there anyone here, including Ian, who is brave enough to admit his/her/their mistake and/or oversight?

[@ignacemorel641]

Iran has the right to self defense, Israël should never have bombed the iranian embassy.

[@joebob-p3z]

Israel has a right to self defence. Iran never should have initiated the Oct 7 attack on Israel via their proxy hamas because a peace deal looked likely between Isreal and the Saudis after the success of Isreal making peace with United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco via the Abraham accords. Iran started this because they could see their position of power in the middle east slipping away as Israel made peace with its neighbors.

[@glitch113]

Ian is an amazing contra indicator 👏

[@VonKirda]

The war in Gaza ? You call that a war instead of a massacre ?

[@VLADDDD-TTHE-SANCTIONS-IMPALER]

Iran accomplished the following 1. Made Israel deplete its interceptor stocks up to 500 2. 1B in spend , 1.3B according to experts 3. Dismantled Israeli escalatory dominance 4. Ended Israeli Deterrence Strategy 5. Inflicted Psychological pain for 1 whole day ; entire Iran celebrated while entire Israeli population was Stressed for 1 whole day 6. Made Israel think as to how Iran feels secure about the attack knowing such a response will bring massive retaliation - Does Iran have n weapon? 7. Tested their Hyper Glide Fattah weapon successfully I could go on. Iran won the day. No doubt

[@dandybufo9664]

made Israel to more likely cause mushroom clouds over Tehran

[@johannesramokgadi6243]

Ian was saying that Iran will never fire from its territory how wrong he was .

[@RyanSemmel77]

Surely that was before Israel bombed their embassy outright. And also, Iran is somewhat showing their hand as a paper tiger. Sounds like the “attack” was telegraphed 3 days in advance and was known to other Arab nations in the region who shot down some of the drones etc. They did the same when Trump killed Sulemani. All bark no bite, which is good in my book though it does seem that there will have to be a fundamental shift in Iran if we are actually going to see real peace.

[@vaclavkubicek2970]

Paradigm shift. By destroying the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Israel broke international law and endangered world peace. Iran responded in a very balanced way by using its old drones and missiles to do little damage. If Israel once again celebrates aggression, it will definitely be excluded from the world community. Iran will be a far more attractive partner for the USA in the Persian Arab region than Israel. Israel will have to accept this, unless it wants to risk an Iran-Israel war, which would also mean the end of Israel. A paradigm shift is currently taking place and that is encouraging. What we need now, however, is the irrevocable recognition of the Palestinian state by the UN so that the Palestinian population can live in security, self-determination and freedom.

[@felixsanchez438]

When you were describing the incident that lead to the Iranian retaliation attack you neglected to state that it was a diplomatic mission that Israel bombarded.

[@BrianMcInnis87]

8:42 Nice.

[@ejc56]

Just stop with the force, sit down and listen, talk.

[@finlybenyunes8385]

Thanks for your sober analysis!

[@russelljones365]

Netynyahu wants conflict to keep himself in power.

[@paladinbob1236]

i think we have seen some complex behind the scenes diplomacy here, giving iran what it needs to show its people its miltary strength but without the casaulties that would provoke israel for more retailiation? the only problem now is israel and its record, with blinken arriving for talks the israelis gave the settlers a massive boost in land[a finger to america] and again the strike at the iranian embassy in syria , america was only notiifed after its strike had been launched, and couldnot be stopped...it seems to me, israel is a behaving a little like the drunk little guy in the bar who wants to fight everybody.... it really does say something that even iran doesnt want a escalation , and is quite content with the dance of politics, and yet you have this drunk little guy[israel] , who is sure to do something wild and out of the box, which is bound to disrupt everybody elses plans for stability :(

[@ziv2liv]

According the Israeli Television Channel 13, regardless of Israel's response to the recent Iran's attack, senior sources in the Israeli war cabinet noted that the targeting of senior leadership of the Iranian revolutionary guard will continue as opportunity arises.

[@lawrenceralph7481]

This exchange between opponents appears to be so careful and well coordinated that perhaps the time is approaching for the US and Iranian leadership to sit down and work out their differences. Biden trip to Tehran?

[@terrymusch9581]

Always the voice of reason. Thanks Ian

[@Pyriel_NZ]

The world is not in a good place at the moment.

[@alexandersheynkman4281]

Why do we need the most powerful military in the world if we afraid to use it? Makes no sense to me

[@martinvanoene7192]

wait and see as always smart minds may or not prevail

[@007nait]

We should all understand how the sausage gets made. So, the things are pretty messy!

[@rezzob]

why did Iran launched missiles to Israel? how many people died in Iran’s missile response? I wonder who is the responsible actor here

[@Davidka_I]

How do we know all the missiles/rockets/drones were being sent to military targets? I saw footage of the skies over Jerusalem. Do we know that all the weapons were not going toward cities/civilian locations?

[@Meishach2112]

Id like to stop paying for Israel’s war crimes.

[@redpigeons]

What happened last night is first and foremost a marvel of Israeli technology and science. Even if I know why you want to play it down.

[@jmhorange]

A marvel of American technology. Now nothing happened to Israel, and Iran has established its deterrent. It's done. Israel needs to stop with Iran and end the war in Gaza. If Israel escalates now, they are idiots.

[@ragoosh]

What I've seen from military analysts in the u.s the main iranian target was the nevatim airbase which has been greatly destroyed by the missiles. Secondly there was less than 20 ballistic missiles and over 100 drones. Most of the ballistic missiles were hit and there are videos where it's obvious the iron dome was confused intercepting the missles. However, iran gave a proportional response to israel and Israelis received the iranians message.

[@charlesrb3898]

Paid for as usual by the US plus generous donations of US technology.

[@Tqoratsos666]

@@ragoosh where have you read that last part?

[@thecountofmontecristo8280]

Who are you calling "Americans"!? You are American. Let's not pretend where your biases lie. If everyone is going to give everyone else a "heads up" then what are we actually fighting over? Is it really ideological or is it merely posturing and the preservation of power?

[@gadget00]

its not being ideological since communism went down. what are you talking about?

[@Archie-td6ox]

Iran retaliated, they did not attack. Big difference

[@dandybufo9664]

Iran supports Hamas, and they attacked

[@iraneman1668]

The only question, as always, "Who started it"?! Then and more importantly, Why didn't anyone helped (Or at least let not to stop!) the uprisen Iranian people in due time? Hope it all ends here coz this can be bad... REALLY BAD! And though BB and Ayatullah have a lot to hid each, a lot of normal people of the world are going to be badly suffer next! Someone who can, PLEASE stop this madness and these vicious mad kids. btw, Soup of the day/ Soup du Jour: Head of Octopus with snake tails for the side!

[@bucsredsoxredwings]

Why didn´t anyone help? Ask the people in Gaza. Because the Muslims want Israel to fight, they want Israel to kill as many people so that the West turns away from them. Why do Sysrians, Afghans etc. flee to Europe and not take asylum in Qatar, Saudi Arabia or somewhere else? Cause nobody wants them.

[@usad3we9hbfsaczu]

@iraneman1668 - they don't care. They love wars. But their people will buy gas at $50 per gallon just because the Zionists in Israel and the rest of the West are bent on genocide

[@smirhash]

What a joke, he like others have shown inconsistent analysis supporting one side. He has become morally flexible person. unsubscribed from now on

[@LawIV]

Just because Israel provoked an international incident, doesn't mean we shouldn't end aid to Israel

[@Peacenik23-oh1xe]

Where's the logic in your statement...

[@treyquattro]

genoc'aid?

[@PauloAdriano-zo2ng]

​@@treyquattro Rhymes with *koolaid*

[@dandybufo9664]

you forget who sponsors Hamas

[@joem0088]

Ian Spinner

[@litchi4507]

Western bias.

[@lagesmanuna]

Biden’s a fallacy.

[@jamesmassey356]

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

[@Carl9Ken]

Free Palestina

[@inglesaocom913]

Israel wants WWW3.

[@Tommy_boy86]

We are at war with iran and russia but NOBODY HAS THE BALLS TO JUST COME OUT AND SAY IT

[@CarminaIguana]

Who is your "we"?

[@Peacenik23-oh1xe]

You left out the economic war with China as well....

[@JorgeRzezak]

@@CarminaIguana Yes, he is right, you are included unless you live in the moon, or you are a lunatic.

[@mattisseeyewear9681]

You are hopeless !!! You talk and talk and you’re ignoring the fact that you’re reenforcing the plot of Iran to exterminate the “great satan” USA … what is wrong with you !!! Have you no shame ? You would have made excuses for Adolf Hitler if you lived in 1938 !!! Shame on you!!!

[@CarminaIguana]

@@JorgeRzezak Or perhaps I can think. A state that probably escapes you often. So maybe tommy_boy is (or hallucinates that he is) at war with Russia and Iran, but my country and I are not, so there is no "we". QED. Maybe try thinking, next time.