Is a Bear Market Coming?

[@ThePlainBagel]

Happy Fri-yay, what are your thoughts on our current market? Any thoughts as to how much longer this bull can go? Let me know!

[@jijov.j1545]

Hi sir, I have a question .In the previous video ,you said that "dividend are dangerous" . company which pay dividend maybe in trouble (some time company get bankruptcy ).Then why company like Coco cola don't get bankruptcy?They are increasing dividend higher every year .And why Warren buffet taking dividend, if dividend paying company is dangerous?why he taking risk?pls answer it or make a video about it.

[@ThePlainBagel]

@@jijov.j1545 to clarify, dividends are not inherently dangerous, but they can be if a company does not have the profitability to sustain them. Coca Cola has been growing its earnings for a long time, so it has been able to also grow its dividend. Hope this clears things up.

[@jijov.j1545]

@@ThePlainBagel could you explain about it in a video in more clear way ?by giving example ?

[@jijov.j1545]

@@ThePlainBagel then why can't it ( Coco cola) reinvest in it's business for the growth of company?

[@abrahammekonnen]

@@jijov.j1545 because Coca-Cola is a mature company

[@jasonmanning6317]

I’m from the future in 2020 and the answer is yes. You are only a year away.

[@Enderchangling]

Jason Manning to say the least

[@thowa1]

I am from the future in June 2020...and right now it looks like you might have been wrong in the future that is now 2 mlnths old. Lesson is: the more people expect a bear market, the less likely it is to come and we can never know.

[@nickysticky100]

thowa1 I am also from the future, It seems that this rally may have been a dead cat bounce...

[@thowa1]

@@nickysticky100 yep...and here we are: last chance to buy before it all goes through the roof with 0%interest rocket fuel, or last chance to sell begore the tanking of a century. we'll need those messages from the future to come in more early!

[@hedbisker3991]

this is a poor and small bear..

[@wahyuramadhan195]

Thanks

[@saltybananas9490]

yes.

[@memback]

Yes

[@mohammadsaeedinia698]

You called it man, you said it might be 3 years from now, 3 years later, here we are in a bear market

[@dallasmckinley]

Old videos like this provide much-needed perspective.

[@CristianHernandez-312]

Agree

[@BodybuildingSteve]

even more so when people say the stock market crash of 1929 is about too happen again loooool, if you ever get doubt in your head just come back too these types of videos

[@Bronek0990]

*coughs furiously*

[@JZTechEngineering]

yes

[@TejSwaroop]

I am from CORONA era .... yes it wild out there

[@lonnpton5239]

*The design is very human.* *Very easy to use.*

[@DennisFinancialDoctor]

This is so relevant right now in Jan 2022

[@Germnvzzzlyy]

Now it is

[@Relevance4life]

It's December, still no bear market. The thing is, this current economy is based on actual production not just some random arrangement of numbers. Manufacturing is going up!

[@cultleader6977]

Manufacturing is really low ! Where are u getting ur information?

[@Relevance4life]

@@cultleader6977 it's not low

[@misterj1396]

I agree. Record low unemployment.

[@bejanniku]

Check again

[@paubatet5687]

guess 2 years ago we hadn't yet discovered the "just print more money" hack.

[@yankeehater237]

It’s funny seeing the 2020 “bear” market comments at the end of 2021

[@IslamBenfifi]

This video aged like premium scotch.

[@uneducatedchristain2963]

Ahhhhhh 2019 you sweet summer child.

[@DeMarki81]

This video aged well

[@damlahanm608]

2019: is a bear market coming? 2020: hold my bear

[@IslamBenfifi]

2022: hold me tightly I can't stand on my feet!

[@redshiftmedia2485]

Anyone watching currently?

[@ShivamSingh-jw8ey]

This video is still relevant as CAPE is still 27

[@successfulusername]

0:52 I forget you’re Canadian till this happens.

[@jaekyungseo5720]

Who else is watching this in 2022 when markets are crashing?

[@ominous_stranger]

Bulls assemble!

[@shafikdiwan1869]

Is this guy from Minority Report?

[@Awfulwriter]

This little piggy went to market, he had a monkey on his shoulder and a skip in his step. On the way he met a matador. "Are you going to market?" said the matador "Indeed I am" said the pig, "where are you going?" "Home" said the matador "today's a bear market, and I'm a bull man." little piggy skipped on. Soon he found himself being turned over and under by hungry bears. They ate the shirt off his back, turned his monkey into a hill o'beans. The moral of the story is this. Don't go to market unless you know who you're dealing with.

[@rodolfolinares8254]

And then they turned on the money printer

[@user-ww6ii6zn8m]

The bear market is inevitable, and no one knows exactly when its coming. The only thing to do is prepare by having cash ready to buy assets at a discount.

[@WhatACoolArrow]

What % of wealth would you recommend having in cash? And would you leave any money in stocks?

[@dodid0]

@@WhatACoolArrow keep investing in S&p 500 index fund, even when the s&p500 is going down month by month. It's called Dollar-Cost-Averaging and it's a miracle of finance. That's what I'm gonna do

[@inNYCC]

It's here

[@frankmathews1358]

Cash

[@tomlxyz]

Time in the market beats timing the market

[@WingofTech]

@1:25 Luckily Bears tend to hibernate for long periods, allowing Bulls to thrive.

[@hunchofmateus2422]

Boy oh boy

[@TheChiefCoin]

And still climbing

[@18km32]

Nope lool

[@Nidht]

I always associated bear markets with the fact bears hibernate, so a hibernation of sorts in the market. I see the bull as a more aggressive, excitable animal, which corresponds to more aggressive growth and riskier investors buying more securities (e. g. grabbing life by the horns).

[@noekahn2073]

I thought it was the soviet bear

[@ALC0LITE]

I thought the same, "Bull Rush" And bears hibernate and prepare

[@jhutt8002]

It's obvious, I don't why people don't connect it: You need bulls to raise cattle. Bulls are traditionally auctioned in the actual bull market. Better your bulls are, better your cattle becomes so they fetch higher price at the auction. Bears kill cattle. They reduce farmers herds and such are... Well you get it.

[@kalebhgoodwin]

How timely. Market crashed today again

[@frankmathews1358]

Guess he knew.

[@murrowboy]

Isn't debt fixed? If I borrow at 3% I'm paying at 3% until maturity on my fixed rate bond. So why would interest rates going up effect me unless i keep creatimg new debt?

[@ThePlainBagel]

The interest rate effects you when it comes time to refinance; many company have debt arrangements that expire within the next 5 years so while it might not have an immediate effect, soon the old debt will be replaced with new debt. Hope that answers your question!

[@murrowboy]

@@ThePlainBagel 5 years? So it's not normal for corporations to take 30 years like the government?

[@ThePlainBagel]

@@murrowboy That is normal, and I don't know what the breakdown would be, but from the companies I've looked at many of them have roughly a third of their debt expiring in the next 5 years.

[@murrowboy]

@@ThePlainBagel thanks man. One last question. How can you tell debt payments or principal is coming due? All i see is current and long term debt on balance sheets.

[@ThePlainBagel]

@@murrowboy You usually have to go through a company's filings to find that info. For a U.S. company, go through their MD&A document, there should be a segment about their debt that lists their debt maturities.

[@titokrish8936]

the bull market is dead (2009-2020) R.I.P

[@ominous_stranger]

Not yet. Bulls are still here. Bull market still here. But we need the vaccine fast.

[@Azel247]

At this moment, nope.

[@AJ-iu6nw]

I'm from the future in 2021 and the answer is yes. You are only 1 year away from a huge crash

[@acholouscognoscente]

Hello from 2024.

[@BipolarTwinsify]

Man they could have gone with Dinosaur Market

[@yagnoel]

If the Market just fcking goes extinct then yes lmao

[@striveknight4782]

Plain bagel: Bull-Run is Over!!! FED: You dare oppose ME!!!

[@Chiwalker]

Is a Bear Market coming? Yes, or at least it should considering all things that have happened. But it seems like we're just pumping it up worse instead.

[@lonnpton5239]

Hello

[@jainilmodhiya6855]

World in 2019- interest rates are rising - debt is increasing Coronavirus- yeah you worry about that

[@yudoball]

This guy predicted covid stock crash

[@adamrugen1850]

This aged well

[@jakomean]

Well... This is not good news for someone who just wanted to enter the stock market. Any thoughts hive mind? Invest now or wait?

[@MsHydna]

He doesn't even mention a pandemic!

[@rogofos]

When mascot of your country is literally a symbol of economic downturn : I

[@jagannathphalak]

Should I invest now in Indian market

[@Psycho-Nomics]

Monetary policy is about the money supply versus demand, not interest rates. That's why we had low nominal rates in '08-'09, yet monetary policy was still tight. Also, corporate debt isn't a problem, on average with rising interest rates, because higher rates will mean there is higher aggregate demand, and hence higher revenue Interest rates are a symptom, not a cause.

[@ThePlainBagel]

Can you clarify your point on corporate debt? Higher interest rates are generally associated with lower demand (i.e. consumers need to pay more to finance purchases, so they will not buy as many things). That would mean that higher interest rates equate to lower revenue, in addition to lower profits (higher interest rates mean higher costs for corporations). That's my understanding, anyway.

[@foobar9220]

Exactly 2 years later and all the arguments still apply the exactly same way. Just with an additional trail of destruction caused by COVID-19...

[@Originalimoc]

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔 we're still not there yet, except the COVID selloff

[@roberteischen4170]

There won't be a market crash until after the presidential election. My understanding is that right around the time of a presidential election, the government spends a lot of money to make the the economy appear to be a stable as possible. This is to make it easier for the transition of power to take place, the people immediately losing faith in the government. So if I were you I would stay until maybe the spring after the election. I think a better way to guesstimate how will the market is performing his bed looking at yourself. Are you doing okay? Or are you starting to struggle. I was doing okay a couple of years ago, but have began to struggle recently.

[@cero2277]

The bull market ended in December when the market fell over 20%. So the question isn’t whether a bear market is coming, it’s is this bear market over? Or are we in a bear market rally?

[@Theresa-ut7zo]

Cero I say bear market really and now the big one

[@JoseLopez-hh6fp]

I was watching thinking you knew about covid already, then you started talking about interest rates. Lol

[@raulrojas9050]

Lol covid got a hold around February and shut everything down on March, crazy how we're almost at covids 1 year anniversary

[@drgrey7026]

I mean technically he would be wrong if he said we were in the longest bull run in history today technically were in a new one

[@spysearice5695]

I don't think this is what BAC was expecting

[@tritone3284]

God bless

[@hedbisker3991]

Hi, Can you share links to the information you tell us?

[@TwitchBeastMV]

Yes, a bear market came :(

[@cocacola7845]

it has just begun. buckle up

[@lonnpton5239]

Hello

[@_R8x_]

I think there are two more human factors to consider. With the low interest rates people are basically 'forced' to invest in the stock market to not loose money also 'millennials' seem to be very avid investors this new generation of market participants could extend the bull run even further.

[@argentumtaibhsear621]

8:27 - I'm sorry, the market has gone up by more than 3 times in that 10-year span. That's never happened before. You can't tell me one low year is throwing off 9 years of out of control growth.

[@ZemanTheMighty]

He can...

[@MsHydna]

Ahh... cute, so much for predictions

[@Nortekman]

The Coronavirus has entered the chat

[@raulrojas9050]

Covid mutants say hello

[@Nova_Zed]

Bear markets only last around 14 months. Good info to store away!

[@Sqorg1]

Good news, we are no longer going down! If all goes well and the trade war ends we should be clear. Bad news is if trade negotiations fail, and more tariffs are added, then we may go back down. Tariffs of 30% added in December, plus the stock market plunge that seems to often happen after Christmas are not a good mix.

[@averagejoey2000]

9 months later we still bulling

[@bejanniku]

Check again

[@godzilla964]

Whether the market falls or rises, im not selling my stocks.

[@owenwalker1774]

Smart

[@inhawaii4941]

Update you sold last week didn't you

[@owenwalker1774]

@@inhawaii4941 I didn't. I bought more.

[@gregoryhanninen5973]

Owen Walker still ?

[@blackjack1482]

@@gregoryhanninen5973 When you keep the long-term perspective that the market has historically rebounded to new highs after every bear market, it becomes easier to hold your positions when they inevitably drop

[@Vedrajrm]

Watching this in 2021 Lol

[@larkin1525]

You think the bear market is at the bottom now?

[@popoffs5273]

2022, spy 450

[@sam_asare]

Just when I'm about to have this in my lectures, KZbin recommends. Y'all are some freaky gods!

[@the_parker_g]

Bulls run. Bears hibernate.

[@DanelRahmani]

I'm going for the kangaroo market

[@J-D248]

Funny, now in 2023.. i had to check the date of this video cause eveything is almost the same.

[@morgansheepman2403]

*Fallout New Vegas intensifies*

[@josephhoward4697]

I bought some paint buckets at a Behr market! Very low prices!

[@azmike1]

Why do businesses think they must always grow? I have a small business and have come to know that growing would destroy me eventually. Oh, I have turned away work because we are so busy in my industry. But I pick my battles. I have now celebrated the 25th year in business, and have never had a down year. Profits are always evident, but a large corporate mentality is not my cup of tea. In fact, it's wrong! Never bite off more than one can chew without considering the risks leaning to not.

[@ThePlainBagel]

You raise a great point, and unfortunately, I believe the focus on growth is a negative by-product of the public investment platform. Many public investors care about nothing but their dollar return, so they are quick to invest in high growth companies, and abandon those experiencing a slow down, even if they are a solid business. There's a lot to gain in adopting a business owner mentality when investing.

[@CooperCarr]

You sound like Bob Iger!

[@drewpierpont3361]

Competition among public companies. Shareholders want to buy the fastest growing and most durable stocks. This incentivizes growth and competition, which pays out big to the board of directors. It's beneficial, though agreeably not for everyone. If you're doing well enough for yourself, you're doing well enough.

[@MrEaglenator]

Well, it was coming, in fact.

[@jobinjosemathew14]

One thing I would like to mention is that tech has become a much bigger part of the Index than it was before and tech generally tends to have a higher valuation which could mean going forward long term average of 16.6 could go higher

[@mikecheckov5365]

i prefer cinnamon bagels. but i like what you do. people usually tend to seek out reinforcing data rather than look at the opposite. i find its more important to study failures than successes.

[@ominous_stranger]

*Laughs hysterically

[@frankwiersma7980]

A prediction is always comes true if you wait long enough.

[@n67637]

I read this as "Is a Beer Market coming?"

[@ThePlainBagel]

I wish

[@mattmccracken1768]

Well done. I only know two things: (1) stocks have been expensive by historic standards - not just CAPE, but the Buffet Indicator as well - for some time. (2) We are in uncharted waters given the Fed's decision to keep interest rates at zero for so long and its infusion of liquidity (i.e. cash) into the system, quantitative easing. I think the trend will be downward, but who knows? If you need your money soon, I would stay conservatively invested. If you don't need it for at least five years, I would stay in stocks.

[@HybridParentSupport]

Be a bear and eat everything?

[@Patchuchan]

There are signs that the tech bubble and real estate bubbles are getting ready to burst soon which could cause a bear market. A third bubble is the student loan debt bubble which is causing harm to the economy.

[@drewpierpont3361]

Some would say that the bear market already began and that the 20% figure is an arbitrary and oversimplified metric (I'm one of them).

[@ifcinvestor569]

It surprises me how people cheer about a 28,000 dow jones when they have no clue where that number comes from!

[@rerezpect]

The most scary video I've ever seen.. :)))

[@alejandrocastaneda261]

Hi! In order to pick the best company/s within a pool of companies, hoy do you compare a company among their peers, the sector’s average and the index? Also, how do you evaluate companies from the energy, financial, healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, etc.? Thanks!

[@erikjacobsen7952]

Bears are coming to the market?!

[@sonicmeerkat]

So when 2009 gets cut off that mini bear will retroactively get added destroying the streak?

[@TheChiefCoin]

Time for a bond and physical gold purchase I think.

[@brendanhorner5727]

Welp...the world ended

[@Heisbig]

your videos should be played in every finance class.

[@tobynorris9259]

for the images you used, the outline of the bear goes doesn and the bull goes up

[@nicholasbyram296]

If you find fresh bear scat, you should make a lot of noise (with a bell if you have one). Imagine a Fibonnacci sequence in reverse from election day 2020: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13... What number are we on now? If each comma is the bottom of a "v," you could ride that for a while.

[@hello201014]

Bear and the Bull? Damn, Fallout New Vegas....just...damn

[@shriTune]

one word.... realist!

[@colelane987]

The CAPE ratio's duration seems a bit arbitrary, especially given that 2009 might be what's inflating it currently. It should be possible (and relatively easy for those who have the information) to change the duration of the ratio to eliminate the possible outlier. This would mean that the 9 year CAPE ratio couldn't be compared to previous CAPE ratios, but they could also be adjusted to 9 year ratios.

[@Jorge_AS_Fernandes]

Still in a bull... But... 😋

[@lonnpton5239]

Hehehe