Is China's Housing Market Near Rock Bottom? Why Now Might Be the Time to Sell

[@SergioRomano-nj8eb]

It’s interesting how the housing market tends to be cyclical, with buyer or seller markets depending on the broader economy and interest rates.

[@FedrickWhite-jo2ed]

I’ve noticed that housing prices in urban areas are still rising, but some suburban markets seem to be cooling down slightly

[@JoshuaMartins-sr7ez]

Low inventory has been a huge challenge for buyers recently-sellers can command higher prices because there just aren’t enough homes available

[@SarahGonzales-sk6tn]

With interest rates fluctuating, it’s hard to predict whether buying now or waiting will ultimately be more beneficial.

[@FedrickWhite-jo2ed]

Many people are turning to renting as an alternative, especially with affordability becoming an issue for first-time homebuyers.

[@NicholasSebastin]

Renovation projects and flipping seem to be thriving in this market, as buyers are willing to purchase fixer-uppers at lower prices and invest in upgrades.

[@MrTeglo]

I've watched you for so long and you are truly insightful. I appreciate your hard work

[@michaelgothenburg364]

No, we're used to very high prices in China, they've dropped but they're still high, especially considering the fundamental problems and the one-child policy.

[@andreashauschild7757]

There is no more 1 child policy. It was dropped a few years back.

[@michaelgothenburg364]

@@andreashauschild7757 Does not matter at all that it was dropped in 2015. It was effective from 1980 to 2015 and that's 35 years with fewer women born every year who then gave birth to even fewer women who then will give birth to fewer on fewer on fewer children soon. It takes minimum 2 generations to turn that around.

[@raeward1605]

Thank you, Don. An excellent explanation of potential values of houses in China. It is sad that so many homeowners have lost considerable money paying high prices four or five years ago that will take years to ever recover. My friend in Nanning is stuck in this position. Unable to sell, she and her mother struggle to survive but are unable to leave. She battles daily to find part-time casual work, just to keep electricity on and feed themselves. I hope the overall economy will turn a corner as soon as possible, but seriously doubt things will improve anytime soon. 😢 kind regards, Rae from New Zealand 🇳🇿 ❤

[@mfmcintyre]

Don't simply retire from something; have something to retire to..

[@ufuksenol2005]

It’s really heartbreaking to see how inflation and recession impact low-income families. The cost of living keeps rising, and many struggle just to meet basic needs, let alone save or invest. It’s a reminder of the importance of finding ways to create financial opportunities. You've helped me a lot sir Brian! Imagine i invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days

[@PineHosting]

Absolutely! Profits are possible, especially now, but complex transactions should be handled by experienced market professionals.

[@faysdt414]

Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things

[@whitefearlytales]

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[@amytuttle1621]

Yes! I'm celebrating £32K stock portfolio today... Started this journey with £3K.... I've invested no time and also with the right terms, now I have time for my family and life ahead of me.

[@generessler6282]

Thanks for the careful explanation, Don. A nit... It's very common, here included, to forget maintenance, repair, renovation (unless accounted for as depreciation), and (if applicable) management fees in the expenses list for real estate. Between 3% and 5% per year can easily accrue. Then landlords wonder where their cash flow went. I would think that if tofu dreg construction is in play, upkeep costs could be disastrous.

[@zzdlover2005zz]

No, their price is still very high compared to the wages.

[@kevoreilly6557]

Irreverent - it’s about the future net present value … so about 89”0% drop to go … if China destroys the excess inventory Else .. 29 years of 2-3 % decline

[@JamesBrown-p6e]

Very interesting examination of the situation. Thanks again.

[@louisgiokas2206]

Good analysis and good information.

[@djparn007]

Thank you, Don. 👍

[@Helen-n8j]

I’m in Beijing and real estate in the last 6 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in dollar in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quite mediocre neighborhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighborhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.

[@DhanaPayar]

mortgage rates will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are at a crossroads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

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[@mikestewart4752]

1:30 I’m glad you stepped in here Don, because I was about to say something! 🤦 😁

[@chuckley99]

Thanks Don

[@midimusicforever]

It hasn't finished bottoming out yet!

[@michaelr3647]

One further point to add to your analysis - if properties formerly held for speculative gain are sold for use as rental properties, the supply will increase, pushing down rents and further reducing the investable asset value. It's a nasty downward spiral until the bottom is reached.

[@statmonster]

Interesting.

[@robertbraden4454]

Good insight Don. If only more folks heard your advice a week ago before investing in the Chinese stock market.

[@stevepailet8258]

another question talking about rentals how many people who can afford housing currently are not being housed as in what is the real demand for housing that is not already satisfied

[@martinascot5477]

collapse is inevitable imho

[@BlackHattie]

thank you

[@BlackHattie]

youre one of the best

[@cyberslim7955]

5:00 Strange, the Chinese saying goes like this: Before you tear down your house, build a new one first. Perhaps there is just no easy way to build a new local gov financing system to replace the land grap and dump system?

[@NiceyKlepfer]

I'm favoured, $50K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America.

[@Ricky_Sillavan]

GOOD CONTENT !!! Very engaging right from the beginning These are tough times and frankly I appreciate how you discuss global finances in such a delicate way . Business and investment

[@SteveRanz]

Ms Georgette Wong was my hope during the 'bear summer' last year. I did so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from Georgette Wong

[@ShelleyMeloche]

She must be really dedicated and well trusted for people to talk much good about

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[@GennaroCavagnuolo]

I Started with 5,000$ and Withdrew profits 89,000$

[@denisdufresne5338]

I would not be surprised to see the home prices go as low as twice the average salary as it was 50-60 years ago in Canada and possibly in USA.

[@mikestewart4752]

3:49 Can you imagine the Local Governments definition of “fair prices”?

[@andreashauschild7757]

Many people are happy with the colapse of the housing market because it is putting buying a house back into the realm of possibility. It is actually the best thing that could have happened to China. Every percent drop adds thousands and thousands of people into the range of buying a house. The crash hurts investors, but helps the lower middle class. Having a house is important for young people to get married. And yes it hurts and it creates problems, but solves more problems for the people themself.

[@bjrnhjortshjandersen1286]

For the local governments, the income would be from taxes on operating a property not from land sales. Some fees put on electricity, water, gas, property tax, parking, etc. Relatively small running costs that can be adjusted without big detortion of the economy. But the change may be hard on many people.

[@joerudnik9290]

How can the price not spiral, when the supply is huge and the builders can’t finish the homes they’ve already sold.

[@cyberslim7955]

Finding tenants is even hard in prime location in 1st tier cities.

[@12wonton]

The foundation, building is filled with flawed shortcuts. Houses need to be torn down and properly rebuilt. Value is only in how long will it stand hold up. Problem is corruption cheating. Once they properly build then it holds value. Otherwise the building will collapse.

[@edwardv1219]

The bottom isn’t close yet. With the over build in the 150% range, homes are only worth 20% of their high. The government can try and re-inflate the bubble but they risk making the next collapse even worse. However they have to first convince the public the markets dynamics have changed and you will once again make money forever. 🤪

[@wl6020]

Probably for many Chinese landlords in the past, renting out their property at a major loss compared to getting interest in a bank makes sense if housing prices always go up, never drops, and doubles every 7 years. They want the appreciation, the little rent is icing on the cake

[@peterl545]

Bad combination: Waiting for a recovery on an asset that is poorly built and poorly maintained. Condos are depreciating assets.

[@ronlong2400]

I noticed there's a lack of discussion about the situation where there's more homes than families available. There seems to be no bottom then.

[@stevepailet8258]

so question who are the people who are stupid enough to buy a house in china right now?? Who is buying houses in a market where they have enough units to house the population 3 times This does include the children and the retired Considering that this is darn near 500,000,000 people who are retired or not old enough to be in a house by themselves. If we consider 48% of the young people age 18 to 34 are not working.. well guess we can remove them from those who could buy a house. Now I also figure that the actual population is very much inflated. I figure that that the actual population of China is closer to 1 billion meaning that the actual population who might be able to buy is closer to 200 million Now this in comparison to 3 billion housing units that could be finished or are ready to be occupied. Who is going to pay full price no matter how much that price might be. Can you say huge massive over supply vs diminishing demand. Remember to keep in mind why chinese tend to purchase Men with dowery for marriage. Well looking at that left over women are not getting married.. young women in that 18 -34 year age groups are vastly out numbered by men Many of these women have very very little need or desire to get married All in all where do you see demand for all of the excess housing to come from?

[@kevoreilly6557]

People that need a roof or want to get married .. still massively over repriced with lout usual Chinese manipulation of prices

[@NoComplience]

700 million more likely after watching a video about this a few days ago.

[@thomastan7511]

The housing price will continue to fall with no stability in sight.

[@bobjoseph3598]

If there is more houses than people to occupy them the effective price of a house is zero. Excess supply must be destroyed repurposed. Even a empty house has a cost and so its price is negative.

[@RealityCheck6969]

China will have less and leas people and fewer and fewer companies in the coming decades. So…

[@deanchristie3829]

3:46 'According to shing haa news agency, it aims to allow state-owned Enterprises to purchase unsold commercial properties at reasonable prices, which will then be repurposed as affordable housing.' The excess inventory in the Chinese realestate market varies by locale. How is (more) affordable housing going to alleviate the over-supply? Sell or hold a rental property? If the rental income is 2% as you suggested, and 6% is the equivalent return of other investments, then there is a lot more to go before reaching equalibrium.

[@robb-506]

What's the % of Tofu Housing Projects ...? If over 20%, 🇨🇳 citizens will be skeptically shy in buying. Only renting.

[@wl6020]

Don, how much lower do you think beijing will still drop, and for how long? Many people still made a ton of money if they bought in 2016 and earlier. I was in Beijing in 2014 for 3 months and my friends kept on saying beijing is chinas capital city, price only goes up, will never drop. The main issue is even if it drops by half from what it is now, many people still can not afford it. It would be great if you do another video on this, this is very informative.

[@Fr.VeniceLAI]

The ultimate solution is the Government at Zhongnanhai issues directives to all China Banks to provide ZERO Rate Interest loans for all new/old purchases of unfinished, uncompleted, abandoned and those fully paid yet-to-built housing...

[@vl2010]

So you are basically say the Government needs to bail out everyone 😂😂😂 so now that Chinese have learned that real estate does not go up like the last 30 years. I don't believe with all your suggestions that average Chinese will go out and start buying real estate. Once you get burned once, you learn to be careful. The main issue is the oversupply in housing. Even in China there is fact and economic principles of supply and demand...too much supply.

[@Fr.VeniceLAI]

@@vl2010 Zero Interest Rate is nothing new, the U.S. Fed precisely did that during the Global Financial Crisis: December 2008 - December 2015 and during the COVID-19 Pandemic: March 2020 - March 2022. Alternative, Chairman Xi Jinping can also implement his modern version of Mao's Land Reform Movement Policy (1949-1953) version 2.0, i.e. to acquire and to seize/confiscate all Chinese Peoples' Lands, Properties, Housing and Real Estate Assets, to be re-distributed among all Chinese Citizens as and under "COMMON PROSPERITY".

[@Mighty_Terp]

Get out now!!!

[@Xitlerwinniethepoohdictator]

The Chinese housing market is still 50% overvalued.

[@mrxiong2567]

Not bottom yet

[@brennencox516]

13:49 30% of income going to housing is way too high. Fiscally responsible people spend at most 16%. I thought you were supposed to be smart.... I guess not. To my understanding, China (the PRC) already has a property tax. When "buying" a home, people need to pay the government a large sum up front, correct? So instead of paying ~1% of the value of their home every year, they pay a lump sum when they purchase it. If I'm mistaken, please correct me.

[@teuteu13]

What do you mean by bottom? The house market in china is up more than 500% since 8 years in some cities. As example in Xi'an my friend bought an apartment at 50万人民币 in 2014 and today the market price of his apartment 280万。it's more than 500% return for his investment. Then an other friend in Shanghai did the same so today small downside of 4 to 5 % in 2024 is nothing for them compare their current entry buying price in the market...no impact for them and the economy in Chinese house market... it's just a consolidation phase before a next rise.

[@NoComplience]

That small downside is 30% in Shanghai.

[@serwombles8816]

Every lie ha a pruce that eventually has to be paid

[@ozyrob1]

Thanks Don