Is Global Warming Speeding Up?

Thanks to climate change, 2023 has shattered heat records, and 2024 is continuing where last year left off. With this devastating heat driving extreme weather - from heatwaves to downpours to wildfires - across the globe, scientists are increasingly asking if global warming could be accelerating. So what does the evidence show? Is the heating up of our planet speeding up? If so, what does this climate change mean for our future? And can we still hit the brakes and halt global warming?
Huge thanks to scientist Andrew Dessler for his feedback! Follow him here:
/ andrewdessler
Support ClimateAdam on patreon: / climateadam
#ClimateChange #climatecrisis
twitter: / climateadam
instagram: / climate_adam
==MORE INFO==
On acceleration predicted by models vs Hansen vs reality:
www.realclimate.org/index.php...
www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck...
Comment on the weirdness of recent temperatures:
www.nature.com/articles/d4158...
Further discussion of “the surge”
www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the...
Is it the volcano
www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the...
Further discussion of 2023’s warming:
www.theclimatebrink.com/p/202...
Recent temperatures:
www.euronews.com/green/2024/0...
eu.usatoday.com/story/news/na...
climate.copernicus.eu/coperni...
www.axios.com/2024/03/21/clim...
Discussion of accelerating temperature
www.washingtonpost.com/climat...
Zeke Hausfather comment www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/op...
Doubt over whether acceleration is underway:
michaelmann.net/content/comme...
Feb beating March records / 1764254749925204257
Accelerating heat content www.nature.com/articles/s4159...
Old (2018) discussion on possibility of acceleration: www.nature.com/articles/d4158...
Climate models compared to ongoing warming:
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-...
==CREDITS==
Temperature data: IPCC AR6 mean combined with HadCRUT's values for the last couple of years
Historical warming trend and projections from Nasa Goddard
Wildfire footage Henderson Hillls
El Nino clip from NOAAEco farming video from World Economic Forum and Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
Waorani people from UN Human Rights

[@ClimateAdam]

Massive thanks to all the patrons who made this video possible! And thanks to scientist Andrew Dessler for his feedback! Follow him here: twitter.com/AndrewDessler also check out this excellent article on the topic from Zeke Hausfather: www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-why-the-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-is-what-scientists-expect

[@jasonk125]

March 2024 was the warmest on record according to ERA5 Reanalysis. This is the 10th consecutive month that the Earth has set a new record!

[@AdultModelbydream]

I must say 😊 cute Adam

[@carkawalakhatulistiwa]

I see jordan peterson. He don't believe climate changer 😊

[@ricksmall5240]

When the ice melts off, where will the thermal Energy go, 334j/g to phase change ice, where oh where will that 334j/g go and how much faster will things heat up, then add in the albedo shift to the equation Question, what is the equilibrium temperature for the average global temperature at 420ppm CO2 or AGGI at 585ppm, Equilibrium point for the average global temperature for 280ppm was 15c Equilibrium point for the average global temperature for 180ppm (iceage maximum) was 7c A 100ppm change in CO2 levels caused the average global temperature to change by 8c 8c/100ppm or 1c/12ppm, global thermostat setting of 1c/12ppm CO2 420ppm - 280ppm = 140ppm difference ÷ 1c/12ppm = 11.75c rise above 280ppm baseline

[@RobertMJohnson]

news flash: graphs of EVERY KIND do NOT predict the future. as an oxford scientist, you actually know this, and are lying to the world on youtube

[@sangitaekka]

In India, we already have a heatwave alert. I don't even have a car and try to keep my carbon footprint low, but guess whose migraines have worsened due to heat? :( Feels hopeless...

[@plantbasedsenior4240]

I hope you are feeling better soon.

[@morphingfaces]

And it's hard to get access to drinkable water which makes it even worse we need a society that works based on the needs of poor and working people not authoritarian dictators and the one percent

[@sangitaekka]

@@plantbasedsenior4240 I am. Thank you. :)

[@sangitaekka]

@@morphingfaces Bangalore, typically referred as the Silicon Valley of India, facing terrible water crisis. The city is a concrete jungle. General elections are starting soon, and I really hope to see something better this time. Will try to contribute too. Let's see... Fingers crossed.

[@Christian-re4dl]

lmao.

[@Zankras]

I think we’re about to find out just how resilient global agriculture is to chaotic weather patterns.

[@dr.zoidberg8666]

Middle of the century. It's always been the middle of the century

[@johncurtis920]

Quick answer to how resilient global agriculture is is this. It's not. Better start stocking up now if you can.

[@Pan_Fryer]

@@johncurtis920 100% Famine rides, its easy to deal with so long as you acknowledge our entire food generation and distribution plan is as lame as boomers

[@mikeharrington5593]

In some places, not others. I think it is likely the FAO will be recording a net loss in global food production for the past 9 months, and the same for the 9 months ahead.

[@dr.zoidberg8666]

@@mikeharrington5593 Yes, we'll have regional issues here & there, but global ag faces many long-term challenges. Climate change, yes, & the lowering water tables, soil compaction, & extreme weather that comes with it. But also we have growing global nutrient depletion & soil erosion from overly intense farming. And we have increasing habitat destruction to make room for more agriculture which thins the numbers of pollinators. And because of many of these other factors, cattle go underfed or slaughtered early which pressures the farmers to expand their land & exacerbate the problem. We also see the increased planting of ecologically nasty cash crops or deployment of spectacularly wide-ranging weed & pest control. And that's to say nothing of the fragility of our transportation infrastructure which mostly operates on a knife's edge margin & 'just in time' model as many found out during covid. The challenges that face our global system of agriculture are a hydra, one that slowly grows in size each year.

[@coleorum]

The Keeling Curve is now showing around 426 ppm C02. A year ago it was 422ppm. No sign at all that we are reducing our C02 output.

[@ClimateAdam]

note that (because CO2 fills up in the atmosphere like water filling up a glass) reducing output doesn't mean atmospheric concentrations halt, or decrease. it means they start to increase more slowly.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

It is increasing. The Arabs and Russians, The Germans and the USA have already told the world that they want to burn everything they have. And sometimes even which they currently do not have. I personally see 650-700ppm in 2100 or about 5-6 degrees globally.

[@yarodin]

@@ClimateAdamI think you mean "increase" more slowly.

[@dot1298]

yeah, even stopping emission of CO2 today (which would never work, as long as animals exhale CO2), would just leave the atmosphere at a very unhealthy level of 426ppm :/ it would take *centuries* for nature to reduce this level back to below 300ppm (where it starts to become acceptable again), even if humankind went extinct today. I could even take a full millennium.

[@dot1298]

So, time is not on our side, unfortunately :/

[@ScottRiddleArtist]

So I have been a gardener since I was about six years old. Lol the old woman next-door would pay me and teach me to help weed and work in her garden. For years, I kept this relationship and I actually lived off the land while living in a major city for over a decade. Collecting wild materials from the scrub forests around the edge of the city and weaving baskets and turning them into Wildcraft furniture. The thing about having been connected to the land for so many decades every season outside observing plants and trees and insects, etc. Is that I could see the changes happening decades ago. And yes, it is warming faster than telling us. Than they imagined and I told everyone this was going to happen. But not only did I tell people this was going to happen. I’ve started to prepare for it. The future is going to be all about problem-solving and adaptability. I figured out how to make an organic suntan lotion for my plants. How to prepare them and sustain them during Flash, drought and extreme heat. And I even started planting fruit trees and other various edibles that are several zones higher than our actual grow zone. And at winter time, I simply baby them cover them. Because I anticipate the climate warming so quickly. That I don’t want to be left without fruits. So I’ve started planting tropical fruits from South America and Australia. Though technically, we are not, that warm. And so far they’ve survived three winters in a row! You need to learn how to grow. And you need to learn the skills of adaptation.

[@user-th3ll8rl7i]

But are you prepared for the barbarians hordes who will come to steal your food when the agricultural system collapses?

[@nigh7swimming]

Let me put it straight: we reached a stage where cleaning the atmosphere will make it worse. Well done humanity..

[@Solar.Geoengineering.Advocate]

thats why we need to do solar geoengineering. and thats that. we have no choice.

[@mfuson77]

I think it is very likely that the removal of Sulphur dioxide from shipping fuel was an inadvertent catalyst to the warming jump. Even as a layman, looking at the data it seems to me that humanity had its foot on the climate break without realizing it. When we removed our foot from the break (cleaning up shipping fuel), the climate snapped forward to the level of damage that already existed in our atmosphere, but we had helped to mask that damage unintentionally through the SO2 in the shipping fuel. Adding SO2 back in would only delay the inevitable and wouldn't reverse the damage. It would be no different than sweeping the dirt under the rug. As the planet rockets past tipping points, it seems clear to me that our situation is grave. Huge temperature swings from high to low, extreme storms, too much rain, not enough rain, all point to one thing...agriculture collapse. Those of us who garden can already see the weather whiplashing is having a massive impact on crop yields. Plants like stability and our emerging climate is anything but stable. I don't think people realize how interconnected everything is with climate - like a house of cards. I'm all for constructive dialogue, but I will no longer waste my time debating whether it is happening. I have eyes, and in my 47 years on this world I have seen vast changes in climate conditions, and those changes are most defiantly accelerating.

[@pokemon42jodeldodel97]

Landscapegardener here. It's completely out of control. In my 15 years as gardener in Austria I saw insects from the Mediterranean, plants from the Mediterranean and plants flowering a month sooner now than 2008. I have no idea where this is going but forests in Austria will change completely until 2100.

[@Bogwedgle]

​@@pokemon42jodeldodel97 Just as someone who pays attention to nature a lot, the change is stark in plants and insects especially, when I moved into this building a decade ago there would be snowdrops and bluebells all along the wall up until mid April, now where it gets direct sunlight in spring they're being replaced by other plants that didn't show up until late spring when I first moved here, there were daffodils out in December this year, potatoes sprouting in my garden in mid winter, I saw damselflies and dragonflies out in March.

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

@@pokemon42jodeldodel97 "I have no idea where this is going but forests in Austria will change completely until 2100." Since when do Fichten, Tannen and Ulmen live 80 years in this type of climate?

[@Pan_Fryer]

anyone who refuses to acknowledge the crisis, is bad faith and should be damned

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

@@Pan_Fryer "and should be damned" Hell and damnation? We know how that works. Nobody expects the spanish inquisition...

[@brandonsheffield9873]

If all 8 billion people on Earth held their breathe for 2 minutes we would see a huge difference instantly. 😅

[@lrvogt1257]

Haha.. No.

[@rajdangol8978]

Dude the 2 minutes we all hold our breath we wld have produced over 200 times carbon than we breathe due to fossil fuels. You're not presenting a good idea

[@peteypunkrock]

Just wrote a paper on deforestation in the tropics. Deforestation and more frequent wildfire events globally create a positive feedback loop that could be accelerating climate change. Reduction in natural sequestration ability has to have an impact on how fast we are heating. I enjoy the videos you make. I am an environmental scientist living in Colorado.

[@whalesong4401]

Thank you for not selling products on your channel. I hate watching a video and seeing an ad for products that are not related or actually contribute to climate change. Thank you for your video.

[@ClimateAdam]

a lot of great channels do sell stuff. I just don't want to!

[@RobertMJohnson]

he's selling a product: climate propaganda. he's lying through his teeth throughout the entire video.

[@treescape7]

​@@RobertMJohnsonand you can tell this from your extensive study of the climate data? Or just inspection of Adams teeth?

[@RobertMJohnson]

@@treescape7please cite, precisely, my c.v.

[@pokemon42jodeldodel97]

Hi from Austria. It's quite possible that we will get 30degrees on Monday. In April. That's just crazy.

[@niedas3426]

We'll have 28 in northern Switzerland this weekend. The mean high temperature for April here is 15 degrees. This is fine :)

[@seitanbeatsyourmeat666]

25c in northern Italy

[@wolfgangpreier9160]

We had 30 on 29.3. in Burgenland. Not officially of course but in our local micro climate we sometimes have significantly different temps.

[@tru7hhimself]

everyone i know says we're a month early this year. february was like march, march like april and now in april it's like may. a wahnsinn.

[@reuireuiop0]

​@@tru7hhimself That seems fitting, as Adam said, in some countries, februari temps broke March record highs.

[@brightondude9327]

“I’m on the edge of my seat” - That was very funny. Thank you for another excellent video. You always manage to be interesting and entertaining about this very important and complicated subject.

[@ClimateAdam]

ah thank you - that means a lot!

[@ward1117]

Scientists are still not sure how the extreme megadrought summer of 1540 in Europe could happen. There was an 11-month period of little rain across Europe in 1540. There is a 20% chance that this summer was hotter than the summer of 2003 in Europe. Many forests went up in flames. In Germany, there were reports of cracks in the ground so big that people could stick their legs inside them. Multiple rivers and lakes dried up. Over half a million people died from the heat and famine. It truly was a horrific disaster. What confuses scientists is that this took place during the Little Ice Age, a period when Earth overall was much cooler than today. Sometimes terrible natural disasters can still happen regardless of Earth's global temperature. It is a bit terrifying to know that such an extreme summer could happen even when the planet was significantly cooler than it is now. A scary thought is wondering what would happen if the same jet stream pattern that caused the 1540 disaster happened today.

[@opinionisopinion]

South and Southeast Asian suffer the heatwave 😢 Global warming is happening and we are scared maybe next year is more hotter

[@user-dj6hu9gq4t]

Every year more hotter. It’s unstoppable. Google wet bulb temps and stay safe.

[@hg6996]

To give some missing details: The IMO decided that from 2020 onwards the sulfur content of marine Diesel and other ship fuels is limited to 0.5%. The limit used to be at 3.5% before that. As the majority of planet earth is covered by oceans taking away such a lot of a cooling blanket makes a huge difference.

[@cabanford]

Sure as hell feels like it up here in Zermatt. Watching the glaciers go from melting to disintegrating over the last 24 years (big diff from the 80s - 90s)

[@RobertMJohnson]

right. if the weather and climate don't fit your cushy lifestyle, it MUST BE anthropogenic

[@cabanford]

@@RobertMJohnson Wow. That was an extremely tangential rant.

[@nicolatesla5786]

Zumatt ? Ever done a pod cast on the state of your climate?

[@nicolatesla5786]

​@@RobertMJohnsonyes 90% anthropogenic human caused. Earth is rapidly warming up at a rate that has not experienced since the last three volcanic CO2 3 greenhouse gas mass extinction events. Those events occurred between 240 million years ago and 55 million years ago. Humans are emitting at least 37 billion tons carbon dioxide per year and CO2 stays in the atmosphere between 300 years and 1200 years. So yes this is a global emergency if you go on KZbin and type in Red Alert for Humanity watch that video

[@boogy4you]

people think that 2 degrees warming is not a lot unless they realize eventually that it's the average including day and night

[@user-hc8ki1rl4t]

According to James Hansen, one cause for the acceleration in warming is that in 2020, regulations introduced by the IMO imposed strict limits on the sulfur content of marine fuels. The new rules lowered the maximum percentage of sulfur from 3.5% to 0.5% for all ships operating worldwide. The reduction of sulfur in shipping fuel has seen a 1 watt per square meter increase in solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. This increase in solar radiation reaching the surface is equivalent to an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere from 420 to 520 vpm (volumes per million).

[@Vincent-ct7ik]

Could be Honga Tonga +10% of water Vapor. No worry at this stage.

[@cd3949]

James Hansen.. oh geez. 😂

[@user-hc8ki1rl4t]

@@cd3949 Who are you? James Hansen was from 1981 to 2013 the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, a part of the Goddard Space Flight Center. And now he does research at Columbia University.

[@Vincent-ct7ik]

@@user-hc8ki1rl4t james Hansen is an activist. I can give you on my side Nobel price who says the exact opposite. Unfortunately, you have to work to get « an » opinion on the subject. Can’t trust much both side. Too much politics and passion.

[@user-hc8ki1rl4t]

@@Vincent-ct7ik Can you tell me what is wrong with a scientist being an activist when we are in a global climate emergency? Or, are you denying a global climate emergency? If you are, don't bother replying.

[@Timlagor]

Your comment on the differences between +1C _> +1.5C -> +2C rather glosses over the fact that +0.5C -> +1C was that one that was relatively benign and +1.5C is already catastrophic (just taking time to actually deliver since we have so much ice buffering the impact as it melts)

[@NoName-cx3gk]

I hope for +8°C, +1.5°C is still too cold, I don't want to freeze anymore, I want warm temperatures.😅

[@russg007]

This video makes me thirsty for climate crisis kool-aid.

[@DarthNVious]

Maybe this time it will come from the cult of UFC fighter Jon, or artists Catherine Zeta, James Earl, Quincy, Tom, or Professor Indiana.

[@ClimateAdam]

for much more on this topic (as well as the links in the description) do check out this excellent write up by Zeke Hausfather: www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-why-the-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-is-what-scientists-expect/?Daily+Briefing+05+04+2024

[@lancechapman3070]

Maybe you are getting there, but Hanson, et al, told us to expect this accelerating heating.

[@lancechapman3070]

You did a good job bringing it all together.

[@sebastianhuvenaars6537]

El Nino, shipping fumes and a moisture spewing volcano combined make for a pretty potent greenhouse kick. Let's hope things will return to being regular apocalyptic in the years to come.

[@rps1689]

La Ninas and El Ninos cpretty much cancel each other out, except for the long-term trend, which is warming. El Ninos are growing stronger, La Ninas weaker. The trend is global warming.

[@SPLICEKNIGHT]

Kinda shocked you didnt mention the energy imbalance

[@Rhetzelle]

The heat right now is so different back then... It burns the skin and it's so humid now...

[@battragon]

Not too fast please; I'm enjoying my old age.

[@elliepurser7867]

I just turned 25, I'm terrified. Just trying to live in the moment.

[@battragon]

@@elliepurser7867 (That, and there's no reason to live beyond the age of 40, what with the monogamy-age fascism complex to begin with.)

[@secretagentcat]

@@elliepurser7867 the world couldve done something 30 years ago. now the people who ruin our planet and lives build bunkers with no conscious. its weak, people are going to be in for a bad time....

[@JenniferA886]

Global dimming… aerosols in the atmosphere reflect heat and energy back into space. Once the aerosols are removed/ reduced… the heat returns?

[@Solar.Geoengineering.Advocate]

yes. and thats why we need to put aerosols into the stratosphere artificially aka solar geoengineering. its patently obvious its the only way we have ANY chance of getting out of this mess

[@JenniferA886]

@@Solar.Geoengineering.Advocate and the aerosols will just sink back down… it’s too late, the damage has been done

[@smokedbeefandcheese4144]

@@Solar.Geoengineering.Advocate I don’t think that’s going to work and I don’t think people are going to let you do that You’re going to have to compensate a lot of people who depend on the sun for their income but yeah if you can do that I could see them letting you shut off the sun for a few years

[@Solar.Geoengineering.Advocate]

@@smokedbeefandcheese4144 it wont be me it'll be the world because there will be no alternati ve

[@timothyrussell4445]

Thanks Adam. One point I think you forgot to mention is that our use of fossil fuels is still increasing, and at an alarming rate. This is in line with population growth which is set to increase by 2 billion to 9.2 billion over the next 30 years, and peaking in the 2080s at around 10.5 billion. Accelerating population growth using more energy equals accelerating global warming, and you don't need a PhD to work that one out. And as you say, the effects of the increase get exponentially worse too the further up the temperature ladder you climb. The climate pessimists of yesteryear have become the optimists of their time. and the rightwing elites who have always ruled over us now have the power to trick the masses into thinking the whole thing's a woke hoax, which is why governments are now beginning to row back on all their previous climate pledges in inverse proportion to the mounting evidence. No wonder people are gluing themselves to motorways! And of course those same governments are clamping down on such peaceful protesters by locking them up for years...

[@Mevlinous]

5:13 you can pretty clearly see that the variability of temperatures is not increasing, but remaining constant

[@freeheeler09]

“Areas in Europe beat their March temperature records…in February!” Yep, pretty much what we experienced in our part of the California mountains this year.

[@rps1689]

In Canada I harvested in our community garden kale and cabbage in February, but we also has record highs and lows in the month.

[@joseenoel8093]

Congrats, you're aces! I'm a chick forest technician from Montreal, I majored in Sylviculture and re-wilding the place, they (those in charge) could absolutely care less, good luck!

[@williamrunner6718]

Scary times.

[@ClimateAdam]

For sure. But we can still act to minimise the scariness for the future!

[@grahamritchie672]

You can say that again @@ClimateAdam

[@old_toucs6283]

Only if you believe the hype.

[@Susanonwow]

I don’t know about hype. I do know that we didn’t have winter as we know it in Ontario. Certainly no igloo’s (joke)Because although we had snowfalls, it always melted. That’s a long way first for me, and I’m not young. I don’t spend a lot of time worrying. But this is darn disconcerting. Deeply unnerving.

[@gehwissen3975]

​@@ClimateAdamHome made psychology is really out of place here. As if asking me on the matter of climate .... :)

[@Akira282]

all the feedback loops will contribute to speed up and yes, the speed will be exponential, it's certainly not linear

[@jackbrew7843]

Hey Adam, I’ve recently finished reading ‘The Uninhabitable Earth’ (highly recommend it to anyone who’s interested in the possible long term consequences of global warming) and was curious to see what you think about the events depicted in that book?

[@user-wo6qn3vf9n]

Global warming you must be joking, it's nearly May and it's still only about 10deg. In the 60s when I was a child around my birthday in April it was alway warm playing outside in just a tee shirt and shorts. Went out today with a thick overcoat on, by now it should be about 20deg.

[@rps1689]

Global warming is about the global mean temp. Global warming doesn't just mean getting more warmer or intense heat extreme in some regions, it also can cause winters to be colder. This is due to the adding of CO2 to the atmosphere, which changes the thermal equilibrium point between the planet's climate system and space. "Returning" the system to equilibrium manifests as global warming.

[@user-wo6qn3vf9n]

Now if you think about it, yes let's have global warming the warmer it gets the less time you need to put your heating on so you can use less fuel so less fuel needs to be produced so producing less gasses so all in all better for the planet. I bet at the end of the ice age people didn't complain about global warming, and anyway global warming is a part of evolution if you believe in that sort of thing.

[@fromnorway643]

@@user-wo6qn3vf9n Global warming part of evolution? What natural forces can explain the warming we are experiencing right now?

[@leptonsoup337]

Wow. I wish I had a Ph.D. from a fancy university. I got my Ph.D. out of a fucking cereal box.

[@IanSizzler]

Huh. I dropped out of college.

[@hm-ys4ym]

Countries should not subsidize air travel

[@Glen-uy4jt]

Faster or slower, the direction is obvious. Continued heating with it’s associated issues.

[@ClimateAdam]

Absolutely - even if we're not seeing a clear acceleration (yet) things are unambiguously still heating up.

[@robliptak93]

You are explaining like your wobbly line. It doesn’t help when politicians need convincing there is a problem.

[@DR-nj5im]

How do we finally simplify the discussion and present the problem of climate change? The truth is, the vague term "climate change" does us no favors at all; none. We need to get away from those words once and for all. Let's call it what it is: Global warming (or global heating). 2nd, science and government need to determine what is the most effective way to present, in the simplest and most universally understandable terms, the *CAUSE* of global heating. Well, thankfully, there is a solution for that too; a solution that is not utilized *nearly* enough... Consider Earth a living organism. Like our own physical bodies, temperature is key. In order for us to be well, we must maitain an internal, average temperature of 98.6. That temperature is universal. Everyone survives by the same rule. And temperature has everything to do with energy; energy going in and energy going out. If you cover yourself in a black wool blanket on a hot, sunny day, eventually you're gonna die. And it's not because there was too much energy going in; it's because there's not enough energy going *out*! Earth maintains what is called an "energy budget". Energy (heat radiation) balance is required to maintain health and a relatively stable climate. We desperately need to talk about that, a lot; about Earth's energy budget, all the time, because the budget balance is out of whack. And human activity is the cause. Too much man-made gas is trapping too much heat when it *should* be escaping into space. That's the problem in a nutshell, a problem that has an understandable and manageable solution.

[@fromnorway643]

"Global warming" is a *_much_* better term than "climate change" since it is more to the point as it tells us in *_which direction_* the climate is changing and that the change is *_global_* - at least on average although there may be some local exceptions.

[@PlayNowWorkLater]

What are your thoughts on the melting Permafrost due to current bla am temperature, and the additional release of greenhouse gasses? I recently watched a NOVA program that featured several climate scientists in Russia, Northern Canada and Alaska that specifically brought up the release of Methane that is far more of a potential accelerating variable with increasing global temperature. They even suggested that Methane could push it past the tipping point. Thoughts? Maybe a video on that topic?

[@jeezy0025]

There's also the release of methane from ever increasing extraction of said methane, especially in the US. The amount of leakage is just starting to be understood and a few organizations recently launched satellites specifically made to measure these leaks. In the US we are now looking at increasing production for at least the next decade I believe. Much of which has already received permits.

[@user-dj6hu9gq4t]

@@jeezy0025got to make that profit. Capitalism has destroyed democracy and well on its way to destroying the planet.

[@thirdeye4654]

Hello Adam, thanks for your time making these vids! Would you be able to make a video on the possible collapse of the "AMOC" stream I just recently learned about. It was said that this could actually cause cold and even very cold temperatures for certain parts of Europe in the future.

[@plantbasedsenior4240]

Paul Beckwith has done a number of videos on it if you would like to look there in the meantime.

[@mardonovashaxrizoda]

I am from Uzbekistan and now we are experiencing 50+°C , the craziest,

[@r_l_o6324]

We need to rewire the world. Live off the grid and depend on each other. Let the wildlife grow back. Giving greater opportunity to life without dysfunctional living.

[@kaputfretudy]

We can stop the heating if we stop the emissions, if we don’t trigger uncontrollable processes that further amplify heating…the science on feedback loops is nascent.

[@oakfat5178]

I think we've already done that. If polar warming is progressing with the atmosphere as it is, we'd have to reduce what's already in the atmosphere before we could slow the accelerating rate of change.

[@elexs8754]

Nice info. First time I heard about theories about acceleration. There are similarities to some tipping points.

[@ClimateAdam]

so glad you found the vid valuable - thanks so much for watching and for your generosity!

[@brandonsheffield9873]

How de we know we arent in a current warm period? I was educated to believe we are still recovering from an ice age.

[@rps1689]

Our planet is still in an ice age called the Quaternary Period because there is pack ice in both polar regions year round. We're in an interglacial period called the Holocene Epoch, but it's still an ice age. The last few glacial periods in the Pleistocene were synchronous with the 105,000 year precession cycle. They're in a cooling phase right now yet we are not in a global cooling trend due anthropogenic warming; the current rapid increase in CO2 is manmade.

[@fromnorway643]

The Earth doesn't have any "standard" average temperature that it automatically returns to after a colder or warmer period, so the phrase "recovering from an ice age" is meaningless. Global changes of temperature are caused by changes of the Earth's *_energy imbalance,_* that is, changes in the incoming and outgoing energy that alters the *_net_* gain or loss of energy, usually measured in watts per square metre of the Earth's surface. In recent years, the energy imbalance has been at least +1 watt/m² globally. That may not sound like much, but it represents 510,000,000,000,000 watts over the entire world, enough for a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet within 60 years, *_if_* all that surplus energy was absorbed by Greenland rather than also warming the rest of the climate system, mainly the oceans.

[@subodhgautam649]

Ever since i know, its getting warmer & warmer year by year. The winters are not chilly anymore. Even the transition season , the onset of winter is not like early days.

[@yancgc5098]

At this point I’d want a flash flood or a cold front to occur where I’m at cuz all this heat with no clouds and rain is driving me crazy

[@michaelrch]

Reading the recent Hansen paper, he shows that the warming is disproportionately at the latitudes that have been most effected the reduction in aerosols from shipping. So the mechanics have not changed. The problem with the models is that they underestimated the dimming from aerosols. That meant to make the models match reality, they underestimated forcing from CO2. So now the aerosols are going away, the warming is faster than the models. Read his latest paper for more detail.

[@Enn-]

Thanks for another great video Adam. I like all of your videos - good information is so important.

[@ClimateAdam]

ah comments like this mean so much to me, thank you

[@tijnjansen7609]

The guy writing about this since the 70's says it is also the anthropogenic effect of cooling the earth that was polluting earth from the air that is stopped partly because of regulations.

[@rps1689]

Brings to mind the global dimming from WWII and postwar construction offset global warming from manmade GHGs, for a while.

[@IceNixie0102]

Moral of the story: use more hairspray?

[@healthdoc]

Adam is rockin that Roddy McDowell look.

[@magicsinglez]

This seems unbelievable. . . Good for you.

[@revivalclimatemusic8140]

Very informative - thanks man!

[@alphajunky]

Wouldn't the most immediate and noticeable consequence of reduced aerosol emissions be changes in precipitation? Essentially, we are abruptly stopping cloud seeding. That would also have a bigger impact on agriculture and forest fires (which we had a lot of in Canada in 2023) than a small year over year increase in temperature.

[@AndrewWes2005]

Today at Malaysia I noticed that low air pressure that form near South China Sea more frequent than before which result to exteme scorching heat and heavy thunderstrom at Sarawak,Sabah and Kalimantan at Borneo Island.

[@dougsinthailand7176]

Methane freed up due to permafrost melting, drought induced wildfires. I’m sure those would contribute an accelerating effect.

[@johnswoodgadgets9819]

There are some physics involved related to available energy. Given that warming is occurring, energy transfer will follow a bell curve. That means that there will be a period in which warming will increase at an increasing rate. It is not necessarily due to any specific change in conditions. That said, activity can have a minor effect on it.

[@Akira282]

Short answer: Yes

[@jimthain8777]

The only way I can think of to measure acceleration is through average temperatures increases over time, so... What was the average temperature increase year to year for the earlier decades? What was the average temperature increase year to year for the last 14 years? If those averages are similar, we probably aren't seeing a huge amount of acceleration. Ont the other hand if those averages are quite different, and the last 14 years show a serious up tick then we must be seeing acceleration by something.

[@old_toucs6283]

The definition of climate as opposed to just weather is taken as 30 years. So you would need to show that the 30 year average is accelerating. The problem is that warm eras look like ours and there is nothing very extraordinary about our current temperatures. Phrases like "hottest ever" usually apply to the last 150 years of measurements or to spurious comparisons with pre-1850 proxies that are very different types of data.

[@petewright4640]

The 'off the chart' jump in global sea surface temperatures over the last year is a mystery. My theory is that it is because there has been a sudden dramatic slowdown of the AMOC. This is causing warm water to pileup in the North Atlantic. It fits all the observations, such as record high tides on the UK south coast. We won't know for sure until the next RAPID array data comes in but that's my scary hunch.

[@you457wx7]

The earth is expanding, therefore it's getting closer to the sun, hence global warming,

[@gordmclean]

The graph shown quite conveniently starts in 1970 after a period of global cooling that lasted from the 1940's to 1970's. The y-axis is also extremely exaggerated to accentuate temperature increases over this limited period. A plot over the past two millennia would be more appropriate. The 1930's had higher temperatures and heat waves in the US than what has been witnessed most recently.

[@ClimateAdam]

I discuss long term temperature patterns in many videos on my channel - e.g. kzbin.info/www/bejne/pZKTi3t3mLV7m9k that's not relevant to this conversation, which is specifically about whether warming is *currently* accelerating (that's actually the reason I start the graph in 1970 - because there absolutely was an acceleration then, for similar reasons to the reasons scientists expect there could now be one).

[@gordmclean]

@@ClimateAdam A lot of the information I have reviewed would suggest it (longer time horizons) is relevant and that what we are currently experiencing is within natural variability of the climate over longer periods. Thanks for the response, I'll check out your site.

[@shawtravis7384]

TF it is - my heating bills last winter were shocking.

[@thinkofwhy]

Because of the global crisis I've completely stopped farting. Now, if everyone else does the same thing I think we can save ourselves. But I doubt people will take this seriously.

[@critiqueofthegothgf]

I think it's kinda interesting you group hansen and hausfather together considering their disagreements on acceleration and 1.5 as a viable target

[@christinearmington]

Just as 2012 turned out to be an outlier rather than the kick off for an accelerated trend, we’ll have to wait and watch the trend here after 2023. It does seem likely though that a variety of processes are reaching state tipping points.

[@ClimateAdam]

either way, we have a lot to learn from the past 12 months about our climate system.

[@lindsaysmith8119]

@@ClimateAdam We certainly do. It varies all the time and has done so forever.

[@oakfat5178]

Speaking of outliers, it's worth looking beyond the global average temperature increase and look at whether the standard deviation will increase or not. If it increases, heatwaves in otherwise survivable climates mightn't be beyond human capacity, mammalian capacity, or more. Species would emerge that could exploit the ecological gaps in such regions..

[@Frosty294492]

I have been following climate science since the early 90's. Back then scientists warned that we are increasing the average temperature of the planet. They warned us if the temperature keeps increasing at some point global climate systems would collapse otherwise called 'tipping points". A group of government paid scientists (IPCC) suggested that if the increase was above or around 1.5 degrees Celsius (pre industrial time), climate change would begin. The Arctic is warming at a faster rate then anywhere else and has enormous amounts of Carbon stored under glaciers and permafrost in the form of CO2 and methane. I believe it is probable that we have warmed the world enough (by burning fossil fuels for energy) to begin melting enough ice to free up that carbon to the atmosphere. I hope I am wrong!

[@hg6996]

This is actually already happening

[@slkinia]

In the 70s, "scientists" told us we were entering a new ice age. In the 90s, the glaciers would melt and coastal regions of the US would be covered in water. Now, we have "climate change," so the "scientists" can point to any change in the weather as proof of ---something. There is no science. It is just cherry-picking numbers and a convenient span of time to make your favorite trend a looming disaster.

[@andrewb5743]

Makes sense. Likely a reinforcing feedback loop for heat to cause inertia.

[@denisdaly1708]

Hi Adam. It is important to look at warming, while also looking at human activity. Humans have burned 50% of all FF since 1992. The implication is that we need to look at recent warming. Also GDP overlays C02.. And we consume an extra 2.6% per year.. Climate science, isolated from exsmining these areas is only partial.. New research shows that trees become less efficient in expelling oxygen with heat.

[@VeganWellnessTribe]

Yay, Adam posted 🎉

[@ClimateAdam]

Yay VeganWellnessTribe commented!

[@VeganWellnessTribe]

@@ClimateAdam you just made my day! 🙏

[@r.poaniecki6249]

Fun fact- about 2 years ago it was the first year when ships have to use fuel without suplhur and because of that thwre is no poluttion of SO2 and dust which reflect the radiation fron the Sun. Its look like we clean up the air and there is a collaterall damage because of that:)

[@Eyeballofearth]

Loving you explaining details on these topics and not selling product. I am a huge fan too on learning about climate change. Im just getting starting on my YT channel about these stuff as well..

[@teleskees]

Could it be that we are in the curve of the Mahlman hockey stick graph? And from here on out all we can expect is rapid warming with a few dips here and there.

[@psikeyhackr6914]

It's like Donald Rumsfeld said, "The unknown unknown is a mofo."

[@Magik1369]

Multiple tipping points have long been breached and are now combining exponentially. 2 years ago the temps at Arctic and Antarctica jumped up by 50 deg F simultaneously. The ocean surface temps are off the charts. The AMOC is slowing. Extreme weather is now appearing all around the world including wet bulb conditions in which humans can't survive. That's the truth. Of course it's accelerating but most scientists won't say so because they'll lose their grants and funding or lose their jobs.

[@leovanlierop4580]

Adam, I like what you're doing! Can you also when summarizing the consequences, name food production collapse? If a 50% decline or more by 2100, people will understand that will hugely affect everybody.

[@ClimateAdam]

absolutely making a mental note to bring that up more often - the importance of impacts to food production can't be overstated!

[@thirdeye4654]

I guess since we are wasting a lot of food in Western countries, we could hope for more efficient use or even less obesity. I can only dream though.

[@haysjack6818]

Here are some facts- World food production has been increasing for about 50 years. And has increased every year in recent years in spite of the false predictions of climate alarmists. The planet is 15% greener than it was 25 years ago with much of the increase taking place in areas formerly to arid for plant growth. The reason for the significant increase of greening is due to the increase of C02 in the atmosphere. Also the increase of C02 is part of the reason food production has increased. C02 is essential to all plant growth. What no one wants to hear is that reducing C02 in the atmosphere actually could cause a food production collapse!

[@singingway]

​@@ClimateAdamre: including more on food supply / the enroads climate solutions simulator has "impact graphs" which would be very useful to use to demonstrate crop loss, species loss, and human heat deaths. I can show you if you'd like. climate Agents 3704 YT channel

[@Debbie-henri]

​@@haysjack6818By the 'increase' in greening, I'm supposing that you refer to all those NASA pictures over China. Well, those trees are rapidly going, as China fells them to be replaced with agricultural fields again. They also have this strange plan to introduce 1.2 billion rabbits into the rest of the desert, because they think that a rabbit plague turns sand dunes into happy meadows, trickling streams and woodlands. Australians know better. ...Oh, by the way, you should also know that some hill and mountainsides in China have been painted green (yes, with actual paint), to give sponsors the impression they've been planted from a distance. If you're talking about other countries greening up. No, they're not. At least not as much as they 'seem' from a satellite photo. Some deserts might temporarily green seasonally or when unnatural floods devastate the regions, afterwards allowing buried dormant weed seeds to grow. But generally, areas that 'are' greener have been artificially planted, and those trees are still small enough to be of little or no consequence. (It takes an average of 15 years for a newly planted tree to grow sufficiently to offset the carbon released during its production. Since most trees during the recent 'rash' of planting schemes are nowhere near 15 years old yet, we can be quite sure that the majority of CO2 released during production is still in the atmosphere). Satellite pictures are very misleading and will just as easily show plains of grass as green as it does trees. A planet covered in grass is no solution to the planet's climate problems (see recent videos on storms in China as evidence). Also, an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere does 'not' benefit plants growing out of doors. In a greenhouse - yes. Indeed, CO2 has been pumped deliberately into greenhouses to 'make plants grow faster and taller.' However, I (as well as many others involved in the horticultural industry) have our doubts about the detrimental effect CO2 filled greenhouses has on the nutritional value of that food. Outside, plants growing in higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere 'do' grow faster and taller - but also lusher and weaker. They are subject to more storm, flood and hail damage. They suffer more in extreme heat. They are weaker against attack from pests and diseases. You must have heard of the various pests/pathogens sweeping across continents, killing large numbers of plants like olive trees, bananas, oranges, chestnuts, oaks, ash, pines, hemlocks, etc. People have been introducing plants from one country to another for many millennia. About 30 millennia. We haven't experience many problems with this practice until around the middle of the last century, when CO2 levels were just nudging upwards. That coincides with the time that an increasing number of plants fell foul of an increasing number of pests and diseases, which spread faster and much further afield under warmer, moister, more comfortable conditions (think locust attacks spreading further through Russia). Where do these diseases come from? The untouched forests that used to separate lands so effectively, the spread and distribution of contagions limited by species variety in forests, cold seasons, dry seasons.

[@lukashansen8184]

This hot host is the reason global warming is speeding up

[@maxy-sp7cn]

I'm sorry I can't hold in my farts any longer.

[@EcoCounts]

Before I started working in the climate space when I thought it was still worthwhile to try to get mega-rich, I used to trade forex. The forex markets and the climate are both non-linear systems and the transferable lesson here is I think that there is no point trying to extrapolate from one data point (2023), which is almost what you said, @Adam. Like Dessler says, we just have to hope the temperature comes back down a bit and that we haven't broken the climate. Like Prof Michael Mann says, it's a minefield. If we've tripped one of the tipping points, it could be an acceleration, but hopefully what happens now is that global temperature stays at this level, bouncing around a bit for the next ten years before another surge comes to scare us all.

[@laletemanolete]

¡Gracias!

[@ClimateAdam]

thanks so much!

[@alanattfield7174]

No but they can omit any findings. But it's something that isn't being widely discussed.

[@andrewjackson7785]

There are no long patterns to today’s weather / climate. There is no climate crisis. That’s what the IPCC report says.

[@VAGAbond7831]

A simple but unpopular large step towards controlling the climate would be a world wide limit on automobile horsepower to 60 hp. The world got through the first half of the 20th century with vehicles of about this power. They are not as much fun to drive but they will get the job done but a bit slower. In recent years the hp has increased by leaps and bounds. Many vehicles now have 300 hp, what was once a significant muscle car. The reduction in fuel use for manufacturing and operating would be very significant.

[@you457wx7]

During the pandemic the number of cars on the road dropped drastically and it did not have an effect on the climate, planes and semi's cause more damage to the environment then cars, if government was concerned then all city, states and governments would already be driving electric vehicles. This is going to hurt American's and help automobile manufacturers, why do you think they like Biden?

[@fallen1561]

hey adam! Great video! I noticed you didn't talk about the effect of lower albedo in the northern hemisphere due to snow cover and ice sheets loss. Do you think it could aslo accelerate global warming?

[@Ab3ndcgi]

He's covered that on several videos, the one with rating the climate solutions has a exercept on the methods proposed for raising albeldo if I recall correctly

[@ClimateAdam]

definitely the albedo effect boosts warming, but I haven't come across work suggesting this boost should speed up over time. by the way this is a topic I discussed in a previous vid: kzbin.info/www/bejne/hKW7mGBshtF1rsU

[@freelancer8636]

Lets hope its heating faster, the more faster its heat up the more likely big powers of replace fossil fuels.

[@tehreemfatima-bn2lr]

Ah yes. Temp is hitting 44 (105) when it used to be 34 -35 max in this month. It's Bad tbh

[@yiannismihail]

I'm sure I'm not saying anything climate scientists haven't already thought of but do the models include CO² released from the ever increasing forest fires and humidity increase due to the constantly warming seas?

[@ClimateAdam]

absolutely increased humidity is taken into account - this is what's known as the "water vapour feedback" and is a very important component of estimating how sensitive the world is to CO2. as for CO2 from forest fires, I'm not sure the extent to which this is taken into account in our projections for the future, but certainly it's a question that climate scientists are working to address.

[@user-sl5mz1sv8n]

👌🙏 Thank You!

[@floweringpassions7462]

well said !!!

[@harrison4461]

I am curious if undocumented methane emissions from methane leakage is a factor.

[@ClimateAdam]

methane is an absolutely crucial factor in the amount of warming we get, but concentrations (which can be measured directly) wouldn't explain an acceleration

[@ChristopherLecky]

From what I can tell the planet is experiencing a reduction in complexity, the question is, is it towards a lower energy state for the purpose of forming stability or is it a perpetual reduction that will continue until an environmental trigger halts the downwards momentum.. Obviously at this stage of development humanity is now a contributing factor which is a first for the history of the planet, so there isn't any examples of similar circumstances in earths history to make accurate predictions as to how our presence will effect the planets natural processes.. Its obvious that this momentum is going somewhere and that the planet is doing something but with the data available to me any other suggestion other than the obvious would be guess work... I have theories but nothing conclusive... Here's a few variable's to act as food for thought, We know the planet is a dynamic system but its actually more complex than that, this is a dynamic sola system as our planet is influenced by other planetary bodies and equally they are influenced by each other, the sun the moon and even the position of other planetoids influence earth gravity and exposure to cosmic radiation, so this reduction in complexity could have been occurring for a while longer than we first became aware of it. It could be a combination of effects that occurred during or after the last ice age where a natural reduction in complexity due to weather conditions met changes in other aspect of external influences or internal changes, something clearly shifted or changed for the planet to be in this current position its just that the variety and variables are vast. It could be one contributing factor or the combination of many at different strengths that create specific circumstances, the planet could have previously been exposed to much higher energy particles from space at some stage than is the case now or it could be merely effects created from within our sola system. Earths gravity could be on a natural cycle or it could have become stronger due to less external influences or it could have been previously weaker because there was more of an external influence which would shield more or less cosmic radiation from hitting the planet or the sun could be less active or all these factors could be having an accumulative effect, Either way the important thing to remember is that we are now a contributing factor so lets hope the planet can sequester our impact whilst heading in this trajectory...

[@stephenconsalvo]

The permafrost thawing is concerning but it's not mentioned much.

[@ClimateAdam]

Definitely is important, but methane concentrations don't explain the recent heat spike.

[@brandonsheffield9873]

As well as Al Gore showed me that CO2 was rising after temperature increases.

[@shaunaburton7136]

Scary

[@oleonard7319]

I can read a chart of atmospheric c02 level's it's still going up and to the right. At an ever increasing level.

[@liasonlee1248]

If you want to know accurately how fast warming happening, check the enthalpy, not the temperature. Though it is easier said than done.

[@rps1689]

There is a reason why global warming is estimated in watts per square meter or total watts, not degrees C per decade.

[@liasonlee1248]

@@rps1689 true, but I kept seeing medias using temperature as reference for global warming, this is very misleading.

[@alphonsobutlakiv789]

I think it's just the world catching up with the 2020 decline. That year was different. Also, I think it's not so clean cut, burning leads to hotter earth, not to say it doesn't, but the season it happens may be a factor, that is to say, if timed right the same thing that heats the earth can cool it. Given there is less in the southern atmosphere, perhaps heat gets trapped in the north, from the south, witch has clearer sky's. Personally I think the key is actually conducting the warming, so to end winter, but not cook the summer. So if we are to keep burning, when we burn may change things. We probably shouldn't in the summer. Now burning in winter may lead to hotter spring, but not last till summer if it's cut in winter. So, starting burning in early fall and ending it in late winter could stabilize spring and summer, but warm the cool seasons. So not actually hotter, but less cold. There is a diffrent between hotter, and less cold.

[@depressedidiot3789]

Here in Philippines it's 53°c as of now lol

[@KeepItSimpleSailor]

Yeah - sure

[@marissadower-morgan3313]

I was wondering, who was your hairstylist?