Is It Time to Stop Buying the S&P 500?

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[@CocoaCallo]

Basically, this video provides absolutely no useful info. A summary - i dont know, i can't tell, nobody knows, nobody can tell, i make pointless videos for views.

[@TobyNewbatt]

thanks for watching :) You have won the best comment award. Interesting that you thought this. So you wanted me to tell you why the market will go up or down? Predicting the future and pretending to know something that is unknowable? Please submit the euromillions numbers here or find me someone who does thank you :)

[@duncanemery4303]

Bet you love spending time on these vids to receive comments like the above keep em coming mate I appreciate them@@TobyNewbatt

[@ianchinsor9248]

Because no body knows, you can only look at previous trends and make calculated guesses and assumptions

[@davidhogg657]

​@TobyNewbatt you can't pay heed to belligerent comments like that, Toby. To hell with them. Though I would say one thing: it feels like the central message for a lot of your videos is "you can't beat the market, so just dollar cost average your investment in a low cost index tracker". There's only so many ways you can say that in a subtly different way. What is the strategy therefore for the channel? You can't do this for the next 15 years

[@TobyNewbatt]

There's soo much more to talk about in the details plenty to cover and while the core messages may get repetitive think about it like this.... What's the point of an exercise channel if they keep saying to perform the same sets and overload them over a long time period to get fit? Or what's the point of a food channel telling me to eat less calories than I consume. What's the point of making a new song, there's already loads out there. Hardly anyone in the UK invests. We are taught nothing in schools about finance. Should it be kept from people. Although you might know more than most, I suspect you do, the majority fall into the beginners section and new people turn 18/ want to invest for the first time all the time :) Hope that explains my thoughts - the short answer I'll do it for as long as I can add value :) @@davidhogg657

[@johndeanconway7931]

You can never say never to opportunity like S&P 500 ETFs, SPY which is up. I’m being instructed by an intelligent investor to buy more anytime it drops, cashing up along the way on every moves, also incorporating new stocks.

[@mondimlotshwa3958]

There’s much uncertainty now, my question is what stocks can be the next wave in terms of growth for the next decade?

[@davegustavo4726]

SPY, IVV, VOO hitting the scene so far. These ETF's doing just fine.

[@johndeanconway7931]

Stocks is not only about anticipating moves based off trends but anticipating through participating behind real top performers and attain how they execute perfectly. coach Frost hilda take good care of my holdings giving me an edge to successful interest.

[@jessicamegan5850]

l've been getting suggestions to use a proper enlightened top tier, please help, I will settle for a similar term just to ensure I get it right this time.

[@johndeanconway7931]

I've had majority of my holdings in ETFs, tech stocks and I've had 65% increase in my portfolio, especially with Nvidia P/E (price to earnings ratio) adding few others, Feel free to write direct.

[@VisedMonk]

Doesn’t matter to me. I’ve got 25 years of investing left. DCA 40% VOO, 35% SCHD, 25% QQQM every week. If the market drops, great. That means I can buy more shares for less to catch the upswing.

[@nex8000]

So you hold all your money in HYSA accounts, or some other lower yield vehicle, and wait for the market to crash before investing? How much are you holding waiting for the next crash? Idk, timing markets like that never seems to work out for people. They often miss out on the biggest gains in stock market history. I'd much prefer to consistently invest and not wait for markets to crash. I would never want the market to drop, nor celebrate it.

[@VisedMonk]

@@nex8000 I think you misunderstood my comment. I'm not in a HYSA other than my emergency fund and our regular savings account for saving for larger purposes. I'm not trying to time the market. There is a 50% chance it goes up on any given day, and a 50% chance it drops on any given day. Corrections happen. Crashes happen. But over time, the overall trajectory is positive. So, all my investments are in ETFs, individual stocks, and a few bonds. I certainly don't celebrate a market drop, but I buy the same dollar amount of my ETFs every week and re-invest dividends. If the market drops, then my regular weekly investing buys more fractional shares and my dividend reinvestment does as well. When the market goes back up, you get additional gains on the shares purchased during the downturn simply from continuing to invest during the downturns.

[@nareshvasishth4034]

@@nex8000 There is a Chinese proverb LOVE ME LITTLE, BUT LOVE ME LONG>

[@mattsennett]

As you say Toby, long term you can't go wrong with a whole of market ETF. Where the S&P500 is concerned, it's true that the big boys are not the same as they were a few decades ago. That's the beauty of it though as if you keep buying then eventually something new will come along and enter the 500 at a low level and you will benefit from it as it makes its way up the list.

[@Asif24960]

I keep my investing simple. I invest, not trade. I invest on a 20+ year time horizon. I will continue to dollar cost average the S&P 500 (20%) and global index (80%)

[@coderider3022]

What global index ? Highly correlated to sp500 anyway ?

[@robinvinchent7813]

MSCI World I guess @@coderider3022

[@pistopitpit]

You are overweighting the winners. That’s a classic returns chasing. But you should be fine anyway. Maybe just not average fine.

[@Asif24960]

@@coderider3022 For now the S&P dominates global but doesn’t mean that will always be the case. I invest in VWRL. Ultimately if the US fails the % of US mix in it will drop accordingly . I’m putting 20% into S&P as I still think their top companies will dominate since they are global companies so wanted to weight it to the US.

[@Asif24960]

@@pistopitpit I’ve always had a global index has the safe bet, not particular great returns but a steady return with over 100+ years of data. Had I put everything into S&P I could understand your comment but I’m struggling to

[@itouch00]

Thanks again for a great video Toby. Your channel has been so valuable to me when I discovered your videos over a year ago. Its amazing seeing how much its grown! Side note, I appreciate the amount of research you do to form your opinions, the editing style of your videos is super clean/engaging and finally i love your humor, its brilliant! :)

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thank you for the kind words, hopefully I can keep improving bit by bit :)

[@jerryedwards4022]

Love your videos, Toby. Easy to listen to, down to earth presentation and very informative. Keep up the brilliant work.

[@martamay6855]

agree, so down to earth, just feels so authentic and v informative, especially for beginners in investing

[@HypaxBE]

I will keep on investing monthly as I have for years. Of the total that I save every month, 50% gets invested into ETF's and 50% gets added to my savings account for a multitude of purposes. Those purposes can be non investing related like renovating the house, but also can be used as a "bazooka" to buy ETF's when prices would drop. That way, if the stock market continues to go up, my money (what's already in + monthly) will continue to grow. If the stock market drops, my montly investments will "buy at a discount" and make money at a later point (which it's very likely to do looking at historical data) + the bazooka allows me to buy a lot more at that 'discounted' price, creating enough weight which monthly investments cant do alone. During a period like we had in 2022-2023, everything you've invested during that time will generate a profit by the end of it. All while everything that was already in there before that period basically did nothing for 2 years (even dropped in value if you account for 2 years of inflation).

[@TobyNewbatt]

Keep up the good work

[@miri9600]

seems like a good strategy

[@pistopitpit]

You call it bazooka, I call it market timing light version lol

[@FirstMM]

@@pistopitpit You could call it taking advantage of circumstances / market conditions or strategic opportunism. I have similar savings that are intended for spending, not investing, but if the conditions are right, I'd happily put off the spending spree for a year or two.

[@pistopitpit]

@@FirstMM sounds reasonable at first but also sounds like you have an unnecessary excess of cash on the side and that is always performance hit in a long run. Perhaps you can afford it, pile of cash on the side always feels good so from psychological point of view it’s a win for sure.

[@christopherchesters4738]

Have you thought about or already done a video on etf picking based more on macro economics rather than the casino of stocks ? Thanks for the content 😉

[@ShameerRavji]

Thx for the vid. I''m always going to be investing into the S&P500 no matter what.

[@anjux3673]

The magnificent 7 had a great year…and there is nothing significant we can see ahead that would lead us to believe they should crash ( sure there are some risks ahead for them, but equally there are opportunities too) Now, all the other S&P stocks had a so, so year. As the US and world recover from inflation ( and hopefully the various conflicts around the world abate), perhaps we’ll see the other 495 stocks in the S&P have even better years than last. These should rise to meet 7, rather than the 7 falling back…who knows though, perhaps a bit of both.

[@mookett]

Toby thanks for your input it really helps me out cheers mate

[@samuelnewitt6978]

Great advice. I started investing a year ago, and have S&P500, Global Shares, Gold ETC and just for fun, Mcdonalds dividend. Same amount every week on a 20 year plan. If there's a dip I might put a little more in, but I don't plan on putting less in, it's the time in the market that's going to count for steady investment

[@adrianl5899]

Whether or not a known highly concentrated index performs is not proof of correctness of the initial the decision to invest in it. Further, something can appear to perform yet perform below what should have been expected from the level of risk being taken on a concentrated index. So, I wouldn't go along the lines of 'we'll only know when the future's happened' but rather on the basis of considering our risk level, what it is we're attempting to achieve from it and what we value (geographical/sector diversification etc.).

[@curiousjoe395]

Thanks Toby. Very interesting video. On the matter of timing the market, I get how dollar cost averaging means that you will win some and lose some but on average - and in the long term - it always makes sense to invest regularly e.g. monthly. I am planning to max my ISA limit on day 1 of the financial year as I have set the 20k aside for this purpose. I wanted to get your view on this. There is a part of me that thinks, the earlier the money goes in, the better as it's a long term investment. There is another part that feels that this is high risk and doesn't really benefit from the dollar cost averaging. If that first day of the financial year is substandard and the dollar rate changes or the market drops, it could take years to recover, given the one-off investment approach. I would appreciate your views on this. Thanks in advance.

[@pistopitpit]

S&P is the winner everybody seem to love right now. This is so naive and classic investor behaviour. Chasing returns. It’s always a higher risk to invest in a single country. Often Japan is given as an example. It used to be at the top of the world (just like US now), then its stock market crashed and not recovered for the next 30 years. It’s like a permanent loss for investor. Worst than any recession ever. So for that reason I will never take a risk of investing in a single country. Future is unknown that is a known fact. So all we have left is make an investment decision based on evidence. By this you give yourself the biggest chance of winning the game. Sure, You might end up broke, but the decision you have made was right.

[@barbarianlife]

If a stock does well, it will move into the top 10, so less surprising that the top 10 has so much weight. I know that is only part of it, but it means less worry about the top heaviness.

[@iain777uk]

Interesting video, I guess if you are worried about the magnificent seven you could invest in an equal market weight S&P 500 tracker. Although the fees are generally higher, but on the plus side equal weight trackers usually pay higher dividends because there’s a leaning towards value rather than growth. Personally I don’t invest in the S&P 500 ,I prefer the FTSE all world ETF.

[@ojay3217]

Which would you suggest?

[@bobdobalina276]

This does raise a question that's always at the back of my mind. I would like to know how re-balancing works on index funds. If I bought an s&p500 index fund in 1985 I would (perhaps) 3% in on IBM. I'm assuming if I still held that same fund 35 years later I would no longer be 3% in on IBM but have a chunk of Tesla so re-balancing must have happened at some point - multiple times no doubt. How does balancing work on funds and ETFs? Do they just handle it within daily trading? Do they check it every 6 months and correct with a bunch of buy/sells? It never seems to be mentioned on the data sheets.

[@hc8714]

That is when you have to do your homework reading Prospectus at least the summary flyer. However for lazy generalisation, index funds are as their name following the underlaying index composition. So these fund houses do not make up their own composition. That being said, you then have to read the index owner's methodology in the index fact sheet eg who's qualified for included into the index. Usually a fund that says they pick top xx of yy index means the balancing is always which ever in the top xx of that yy index.

[@garethspencer]

Dude good video. Interesting thoughts 💭 I am keen to know what is the digital clock or sign on your wall behind you?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Its Divoom Pixoo 64 I have a link in my description you can check out 👍

[@RahimBah1]

Intriguing perspective! This video raises thought-provoking questions about the S&P 500. A must-watch for investors considering diversification and alternative strategies. #InvestmentInsights

[@ericshang7744]

I sold almost everything on the US share fund. I didn’t think too much about where US market is going to go next actually, I just wanted to position those monies in other opportunities.

[@itayorenstein7731]

Where did you got the shiller P\E ratio chart?

[@turner1622]

Hi Toby, just catching up with both this weeks videos. Big thanks as always mate. Going to try and save as much as i can in my IE s/s ISA. Your advice always hit the spot, keep it simple and keep saving. 👍

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thanks as always mate!

[@gumbs2537]

Thanks for the video ✌🏾

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thanks for watching :)

[@jonjones6577]

Hi, with Invest Engine finally releasing their SIPP, would you consider making a video on the fee structure and give examples between their DIY and managed portfolio options, thank you for all the help you have given me through your videos. 😊

[@TobyNewbatt]

Nice idea thank you

[@smithers4420]

Come April ill be able to invest more tax free again. I am definitely going to start putting in money every month then but i also have a lump sum saved up that i want to get in there as well but im not sure on waiting for a bit of a dip before i throw the lump in there too. It could have already happened by April so not much point in thinking about it too much now i guess.

[@MArt-cy4bd]

I really love your videos because they are logical and data-driven, not based on wild hunches. Keep at it.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thanks for watching :)

[@simonfisher4154]

Another very interesting thought provoking video, thanks

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thank you Simon :)

[@geolykos]

I’m saving my money the past 2 months and waiting for the market to cool down before I invest. It doesnt mean Im going to spend it or invest less. I just prefer not to buy at all time highs.

[@knowledgequest2969]

Hi bro I am a new subscriber from India, your videos are useful and stop my thoughts to invest in stocks and planning to invest in US index,can you please suggest how to invest in s&p 500 from India through interactive brokers. I don't see much videos regarding that, thanks in advance

[@FirstMM]

Something often overlooked is that if the stock market goes down by 50%, going back to its previous price is an 100% increase. Half of 1000 is 500. 500 doubled is 1000. So if you are cost averaging whilst the market is falling, then you need a much smaller percentage increase to get back to where you started, because you are buying cheaper. Sure, it isn't guaranteed but what is, other than devaluation by inflation.

[@jan2000nl]

Great advice Toby and very timely. Spent last week on this topic and came to the same conclusion; keep investing into a low cost global index fund.

[@TobyNewbatt]

always easier said than done

[@oleksandr15437]

Great video. Thank you.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Glad you liked it!

[@DaveGiant]

Share prices are inflated compared to historical norms. I think as well that it is far easier to invest now than it has been historically. It wasn’t that long ago that you had to call a broker or have access to a financial advisor. Now anyone can do it with any amount of money. I would be surprised if this PE ratio becomes a new norm.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Indeed Dave great point on that one that we forget about - how many more people are now invested than they ever have been. It's so easy now, yes more companies sure, but way more players with access to the market.

[@miumiushoegirl]

Hi Toby this question isn't related to this particular video but I have a quick question please. The company I had been working for just got acquired by JPMC recently, so our big boss is now JPMC. They are offering the employees to buy their share with discount as well. (they can reduct from my salary). Should I buy them...? Is it worth it? I know you would say it is always my decision and risk but just thought to pop in a question! 😅 (would you buy them if you were in this position?)

[@coderider3022]

You probably want to know the “small print” in these deals in addition to the financial benefits at face value.

[@ketan.x]

Lovely video, Toby! Hope to see more. Its very hard to change the urge..

[@coderider3022]

Vanguard cap US (large and mid caps) to 50% of equity. Really want to hold developed indexes to dilute the SP500 weighting. That way your 70% us (sp500) and have 30% elsewhere as a hedge.

[@pistopitpit]

That’s not a hedge. When things go to shit they usually go to shit all over the world when it comes to equities. Calling it amplifier would be more accurate.

[@giovanniparracino4104]

Good video……. Crash or No crash…… keep investing

[@thunder5496]

My faith was wobbling in USA/S and P 500 around May/June 2023 but held. My worries were; 1. USA debt ceiling and potential economic crash. 2. Economic rise of China What kept me in... it has been incredibly rare for 2 back to back negative S and P 500 years. Where would I invest into instead and no economy looked particularly strong enough to replace USA as a global leader.

[@coderider3022]

Most of us outside US have this view but your talking decades ( my opinion). Large and mid in sp500/US are world companies with good solid streams of income. EM, I’m avoiding due to china economic issues and you can’t equate GDP/population growth with financial stock market rewards . China stock market I think will be a tiny fraction of their GDP. Politics and trad wars and instability with islands means it’s maybe not worth the risk. So overpaying for apple etc may not be so bad.

[@thunder5496]

@coderider3022 have also read China have manipulated their population figures ( :o ) and are sitting on a population problem like much of the West in that they have a rapidly aging population without a steady flow of younger people to replace them. I think... potentially if the US was to fall from the top spot that India seems the more likely to replace them now however I also don't think any one state will rise to dominate like the US has and even if US loses the top spot it'll be large competing blocks whether China / India / USA with maybe 15-25% of global market share each and again probably 15-20 years for that change to happen. Depending on wars and who holds whose debt.

[@dawnmartyne]

Go global . Im 40% in the US . Slight tilt away from the 60% . Id say dont go all in or all out.

[@Abdul_Rahman86]

Personally I think the market is overpriced. But I’m not looking to exit my positions for another 25 years (SIPP). So either way I’ll carry on DCA. I also invest into a uk dividend etf and global dividend etf just to put my mind at ease. The dividend investing is purely for psychological purposes

[@ripley457]

In the long run it's never too expensive. Just zoom out the chart.

[@mikerodent3164]

Interestingly, the RotW (rest of the world) has, in the past, episodically, out-performed the S&P500: it's well worth digging into the stats on that, as another fin KZbinr, Damien Talks Money, did recently. One of the reasons why most of my stuff is in All World index funds. But of course this in practice is a mere tweak to the approach, as all All World indices have a giant percentage in US stocks, and lots of that specifically in the Magnificent 7.

[@thunder5496]

I don't think it was episodically? I think it was closer to 50/50 for RotW up until the last 10 years or so. I think, if I'm remembering correctly even the FTSE100 was performing better than S&P500 1/3 of the time again pre global financial crash.

[@mikerodent3164]

@@thunder5496 Yup, exactly right. Just rewatched relevant bits of YT Damien-Talks-Money "S&P500 vs Global Index - Don't get it wrong!"

[@e.t.theextraterristrial837]

Another variable to consider : Until the last 10-15 years, it wasn't easy for retail investors to buy ETFs and stocks. They had to call brokers to buy it for them, usually at high commissions or they had to rely on mutual funds. Today, the number of retail investors has grown massively because the ease of investing. Now, non-Us citizens can also easily invest in rhe S&p500 from a click of a button without paying massive commissions and the population has grown tremendously.

[@Zizo8182]

good one, thanks for sharing

[@JackStannard93]

Hey Toby, how do I switch ETF's on trading 212 if I want to transfer my investments from the S&P 500 to somthing like all world for example? Thanks for all the help BTW.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Hey Jack, if you just want to buy one investment you'd have to sell the other one first and then you can do what you like? Hope that's what you mean by the question. If you are using an ISA then all is fine.

[@JackStannard93]

@@TobyNewbatt thank you that makes the most common sense, I was hoping you could just transfer your stocks for the price you paid for them at the time. I don't want to sell now because I bought some stocks at a better price. Does that make sense?

[@coderider3022]

Are you buying and selling your portfolio based on each video you watch ? lol. If your buying and selling this frequently , your probably your own worst nightmare. You’re chasing short term gains. Listen to the videos here and elsewhere. Think general and long term.

[@JackStannard93]

@@coderider3022 of course not its something I have been thinking about for a while actually, this video just prompted me to ask the question. I've just wanted that extra diversity but already invested with S&P 500 for a little while now, either way it's a long term (30 plus) years investment for retirement.

[@brickchamp4199]

I just glad that we have investing video channels so that I don't feel like I'm going it alone.

[@lolololo3726]

Great video as always 👌🏿

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thank you again

[@arc8696]

Thanks for the realism.

[@loutol2952]

The S&P 500 is battle tested, self cleansing and the cheapest ‘actively managed’ index in the world. Pound cost into a tracker that tracks this index and you will be just fine. It’s up to you if you want to diversify beyond this. In my opinion, you simply dilute your returns over time. Each to their own and good luck to all.

[@timetraveller3063]

Could not have said this better..my sentiments exactly 👍

[@sdavis7096]

Just keep buying the market at all times, if anything buy more when it’s down.

[@NikhilBapat]

Hi Toby, would love to know your veiws on having an "opportunity fund" ? Plenty of successful investors seem to be talking about it as a legitimate strategy.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thank you for the idea

[@maltesetony9030]

Excellent video.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Cheers Tony 👍

[@HandofGod440]

Buffett said it best, you invest when it's going up and when it's going down lol. . . I'm kind of keeping that mentality with dollar cost averaging and planning on holding long term.

[@TobyNewbatt]

100% - it's always much harder to do, many people say they like to buy when there's blood on the streets etc. but very few do...otherwise the price wouldnt go down as much

[@chaleurphantom1]

Probably the most honest video about investing on KZbin. If it was easy to predict the winners, everyone would be doing it. Slow and steady with Index Funds. Nio was supposed to be a cheaper Tesla. Look how that worked out.

[@Guus367]

The value of these videos to me lie on reinforcing the concept of investing regularly either on share ISAs, SIPPs or Investment accounts, on cheap ETFs - which his right up on my street. I also believe that the US stock market (S&P500/Nasdaq-100) will outperform the EU/UK because they have Tech companies focused on the next ai revolution. Even if Deepmind (the largest ai company in the world), a spinoff Cambridge/UCL universities, is a UK company, in the end it was bought by Google and therefore is listed in the US. I don't see how UK/EU companies can grow without being bought by one of the magnificent 7.

[@matthewdodd7657]

I believe the sap 500 is over price. But the world markets are still good value. I like gold as well as a good back up investment

[@welshhibby]

Time in the market not timing the market.

[@crazysim00__98]

With new VR tech apple and Meta are working on, i believe that the next few years will be very important in regard to tech and AI stocks. Also Electric Vehicles are going to be at a talking point. That's why i strongly invest in index funds as the very strong performing stocks will ultimately get grouped into the S&P or emerging markets or FTSE funds. I cant predict which stocks will do well, but i do know that some will. And i know they will be in an index fund. Great video again mate. Also i really liked the fact you made a previous video talking about the fees of the emerging market fund and developed world vanguard fund. (If you remember the previous comment i made lol)

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thanks again for the support - and yes agreed with your sentiment, I have no idea who the winners will be BUT I do know I'll own them all :)

[@dutch0770]

Look at the US's financial reports. 2008 vs today? Today the financials are worse. The only difference between 2008 and today is that home inventory is still low. We are sitting on a housing bubble, vehicle bubble, inflation, and unemployment rising. It's a huge snowball sitting at the top of the hill. "It will never happen again" while looking at historical data of the last 80 years is just stupid. Dollar cost averaging is the best way to do it. And when it happens buy buy buy. The problem is....when it happens; everyone is too scared or doesn't have the money to put in when it happens.

[@VegasMilgauss]

The cheapest fund that has historically performed the best.. it’ll ding dang do for me!

[@Norfolkpaul]

Just keep on buying in 😊nice video sir

[@TobyNewbatt]

:)

[@markdillon5494]

The big boy companies always dominate the market, and they always change from decade to decade however, they are usually always a US based company on the S&P 500. If you keep buying the S&P 500 you cant go wrong. Its a self cleansing fund. Too much diversity dilutes the performance - hence why at this point global trackers are of no use.

[@ciaoatutti11111111]

Literally pressed the buy button today... 😂

[@marvilrivera3104]

I’ve invested 100% into voo in my rollover ira since September 2023 & i already gained $9000+ w/c is +14%. So 😊

[@richard1342]

Some excellent analysis Toby

[@TobyNewbatt]

Cheers Richard thanks for watching

[@richard1342]

You made an impactful statement on opening this Video - the stock market in 2023 had one of its best years. Have just sold my entire portfolio with Coutts following a year which showed an overall capital loss, yes loss. So much for paying vast amounts for a managed portfolio, when Coutts decided to invest in the ESG ideology about 2 years ago (Alison Rose in action), the pleasures of which have brought me not only losses but massive tax bills this year and last for unnecessary selling of good stock to buy ESG stock, realizing capital gains, Beggars belief. Never again would I use investment houses. @@TobyNewbatt

[@timlodge8267]

Just rewatching the video.

[@molex114]

The market goes up the market goes down sometimes for good reason sometimes for no reason at all. If ive got this right the s&p made 26% due to the top ten and without them only 14% still not a bad return and if one or two of the top go tits they get replaced. True past anf future are not the same but id bet go back any year and you could have the same discussion. Sure you need to pay attention but the only valuation that counts is the one on yhe day you cash in

[@TobyNewbatt]

Slightly wrong on the calculation as the 490 stocks made up 14% of the total return which is (14% of 26% so actually only 3.6%). But your points stand you can always have the same discussion every year and just keep on buying if you're a long term investor :)

[@JacoBrownolymetal666]

That’s not right. It’s 14% of the overall 26% the SP500. So probably around 3-4% without the big boys.

[@TobyNewbatt]

snap :P@@JacoBrownolymetal666

[@molex114]

Ahh OK my bad, but the the s&p has always been the gold standard to beat not just in the last 10 or 20 years and like said if one goes out another comes in. Who know what it's going to look like in the future or what the next big thing will be. Probably a tech or a company that doesn't even exist yet

[@george6977]

​@molex114 But what if the next mega stocks to spring up are domiciled in Japan, EU or UK?

[@coolskool1.061]

If and When it Crashes… then I Double down 💪🏻Let’s get it!

[@valerienewbatt9678]

Very enjoyable Toby

[@musheopeaus4125]

He gives us both sides of the coin and things we haven’t thought about % provide comfort and the truth

[@robkewley]

How much has inflation impacted the underlying price of stocks?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Long term stock market returns around 10% (across 100 years) After inflation 6.5% approx so around 3-3.5% per year

[@jacc88888]

If index funds are supposed to spread the risk then investing so much in just 5 big tech companies in only one country sounds more like gambling to me. The returns could be amazing but you could lose big time too.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Nobody knows the future, but you aren't gambling when you invest using market cap weights over a long period of time. You let the market determine the price and you can only know if a price is right if the company lives up to it in the future :)

[@jacc88888]

I clearly don’t fully understand index funds properly but it seems (from what you are saying in the video) that over the years more and more of the S&P 500 share has been taken up by just a few huge tech companies, which to me doesn’t sound as good as having your investment spread more evenly throughout many different, diverse companies. That said, you know much more about it than me so will take your word on it that it doesn’t matter over the long term!

[@michalsladek8809]

@@jacc88888 But those few huge tech companies has such a big share for reason. If you think that is not justified and you will put more into different companies then you are switching from passive to acitve innvesting. You should also note that SaP 500 is not the only one index. If you choose it you are not "fully" passive investor as you actively choose US market only. You can take some index which covers all world, in such case US stocks will be just about 60 % of it as corresponds its total market capitalization.

[@ChrisShawUK]

@@jacc88888 index funds weighted by market cap provide guaranteed market return. As an investor, you either want to receive market return, or higher. The problem with wanting to receive higher is that the probability is that you will end up lower over a 20+ year period. You buy index funds to guarantee that you hit market return, especially if you don't possess any information which would enable you to beat the market. Diversification is not really a goal in it's own right (although index funds do happen to be diversified)

[@Jnash2030]

I was trying to figure this out today. The S&P in the last year has went up drastically. I really would like to invest in this stock for the long term but I’m just not sure if it will rise significantly still.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Nobody knows in the short term, but in the very long term you'll likely do very well if you continue to invest through all the highs and lows.

[@fulukuku]

buy: sxr8 below 430 eur

[@vh1775]

Can’t help but think you’re right. I’m 100% in VWRL But 60% of that is in the US. Id like to be diversified more outta the US.

[@Andygb78]

You have to look quite hard to find ETFs that aren't heavily weighted towards the US and that have a good prospect of decent returns. Pretty much all world ETFs are around 60% weighted towards the US. I saw Vanguard's own 10 year forecast show growth to be greater outside the US for the next decade. So a developed world ex US would probably be the way to go, if you didn't want to risk emerging markets and high TER fees.

[@stevegeek]

I’ve added Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Income ETF (DEM) to my SIPP, to get some exposure outside US. This pays a good dividend (~8% currently) with low P/E (

[@george6977]

​@@Andygb78 The world ex US ETFs are only available in the USA; there are non for UK investors.

[@vh1775]

@@Andygb78 I’ve been looking for Ex-US funds. I think I might just buy WRLs component funds for a while

[@Andygb78]

@@george6977 That explains why I couldn't find one. I managed to find a developed Europe ETF, which I thought would be the next best thing.

[@DogScreenTV]

Unfortunately the returns for the global etfs don’t come close

[@TobyNewbatt]

Don't forget that due to the 6% exchange rate change of the GBP to USD last year even an S&P 500 fund did not get the returns of the index - sometimes it will be higher sometimes lower. Works the other way too :)

[@DogScreenTV]

@@TobyNewbatt don’t get me wrong I will put some in an all world fund, I just believe the s and p will always be a good bet

[@pistopitpit]

Why unfortunately? Lower valuations of the world index increase future expected returns. Unlike S&P 500, which has future lower expected returns.

[@DogScreenTV]

@@pistopitpit the expected returns of the s and p decreasing has been going on for a while. Unlikely to happen any time soon

[@quokkapirquish6825]

My tuppence worth - I believe that when we inflate the money supply (we added a trillion during covid), the money that was widely distributed initially, is now in the hands of the asset owners (via higher rents, higher goods and services prices and higher mortgage payments). These asset owners will then in turn look to put that money into more assets, ie property, stocks and bonds etc. Since interest rates are about to be cut, those wealthy people are buying up property and are about to return to the stock market. House prices will head north and the stock market will boom. If you think how prices have risen sharply in the last 2 years and interest rates have shot up yet the S and P500 is at its all time high, gold has rocketed (another asset) and we have seen here in the UK 3 consecutive house price increases month on month. My prediction for 2024 is another 25% gain, hitting the 6000 mark by Christmas.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Interesting prediction, let's see how the year goes. I think there is a lot to be optimistic about and like you say...it's al about the assets!

[@AnaViolinViola]

Dollar cost averaging sounds sensible to me

[@TobyNewbatt]

It's such a powerful tool - easy to say but hard to do over the long term :)

[@superslip103]

Is there anyone who is all in on the s&p500? Or are most people in world index funds, or a mixture? The s&p500 has produced great returns the past 10 years - better than the world funds (I think)

[@sid35gb]

Yep I’m all in because the fees are cheaper than global funds.

[@timetraveller3063]

What does Warren Buffet say?...

[@mikeyjohn2278]

The message here is: don't try and time the market.

[@markwilliams4312]

Agree 100%. Stick to facts not speculation.

[@porschecarreras992cabriole8]

I invest £50,000 a year at the moment topping up my workplace pension and my SIPP and stock ISA and buying discounted work shares of course I m not going to stop buying the strongest ETF. The negative people are living their misery life thinking about Doom and crash, there is no future in upskilling them now or help them improve their emotional intelligence and negative feelings in life!

[@boyasaka]

I bet when you die You have hundreds of thousands or even millions in the bank Shame you can't take it with you

[@porschecarreras992cabriole8]

@@boyasaka I have big plans for retirement and no dependents so nothing is left behind for nobody. I have expensive hobbies that involve boats and flying helicopters so will be having a great time in 2-4 years time

[@stevegeek]

Great video, but what if you have a lump sum to invest right now? I can’t bring myself to jump in with everything when prices are at all time high. My plan is to kind of ‘DCA’ but look for the small dips and gradually invest over the next 6 months or so. With everything kicking off in the ME, Ukraine and so on, I can’t help feeling nervous.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Great Q Steve and I think the answer to this always comes down to your personal level of risk. The stats will always say big lump sums now will do better rather than timing them. (technically lump sum investing is what you do when you invest monthly as that is ALL the money you have to invest). But at the end of the day, i presume you are investing for the long run and also will be investing many many more times than just now as well? So it will likely have a minimal impact anyway. Really is up to you and what lets you sleep better at night. There will also always be plenty of negative things going on in the world.

[@Scorex7]

Unless you expect to stay invested for a short time, or have an obscene ammount of money as a lump sum ( which in turn would not matter to you, really...), investing now is always the best.

[@stevegeek]

@@TobyNewbatt Thanks for the comment Toby. Yes, I am investing for the long term but I also just retired so my time horizon is not the same as someone in their 20s! 😉

[@stevegeek]

@@Scorex7 I have a sizeable lump sum, having just changed pension providers and moved over as cash…plus recently retired. Hence my caution with going all-in right now.

[@MrIsmaele00]

1) You never stop investing. Data shows in long term analysis you always (in fact 99.8%) win with index funds. 2) You keep investing everyday (out of weekends for obvious reasons) , even $10 per day. Data shows loosing the 10 best days of the stock market you’re almost loosing 50% of earnings. 3) You’re welcome for the info.

[@itwillnotdie_5571]

So you mean, e.g: if I invest 1000$ to sp500 every month and trying to buy when it is cheapest.. The best strategy will still be to just simply buy it everyday no matter what spending 33$ per day?? I’m not an expert, so I’m curious and looking for some advices..

[@nocashtoday]

Basicaly one need to stop buying s&p and start paying an account to buy s&p

[@clarenceishmael9615]

No one under God knows what the markets are going to do. Hence why DCA is definitely the way to go for us mere mortals.

[@Neddie2k]

Dollar cost averaging is simply the solution, except you are comfortable investing in China, keep investing in the S&P 500.

[@dumbcat]

the market is manipulated. it will be a double top if they WANT it to be a double top. you can never know. you just have to go with the flow of the manipulators

[@timlodge8267]

I was investing in the S&P for over five years topping up every few months,last year was a good year however BAT stock crashed by over £2 on one day so I sold all my holdings in the S&P and bought BAT I will wait for this stock to recover before selling all and buying the S&P again.

[@boyasaka]

Wow Very risky

[@atachardware826]

Investment managers, analyst are nothing more than “fortune tellers or astrologers who are dragging money out of their clients’ accounts” CH

[@ElliotWadsworth93]

This channel inspired me to make KZbin videos! I hope my channel can be as successful as yours!

[@dmitrijza1124]

Stock market the only market where ppl afraid to buy with discount & runaway 😅

[@TobyNewbatt]

human psychology is one hell of a drug. Makes things interesting though :)

[@kaptaa2671]

VIX be like hello SPY😅

[@MotivationMindset100]

2024=2+0+2+4= 8 which is the sign on infinity... the year 2024 will be bigger than ever

[@bikerboyz5272]

Why not just invest in the top 10 us companies instead ?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Easy answer to this question - in 20-30 years you can almost guarantee that the top 10 companies now will not be the same ones. And even if they are - you are then bettering that their returns on stock price will be better than the market average. Way too risky and you will be chasing past performance...a dangerous game :)

[@redda2]

​@@TobyNewbattis there an ETF that tracks the top 10 US companies?

[@quokkapirquish6825]

I invest in a global 100 ETF. It has the top companies in the world in it, not just the U.S. It has done very well in the last few years.

[@ericscott6864]

I invest with an all in strategy. I'm all in every week when I get paid, after paying my bills. Over the years I found it's best to ignore predictions about the market and focus on news about a single company I own.

[@annaluxie1791]

70% S&P 500, 20% MSCI World, 10% Semiconductor ETF all long term and winner winner chicken dinner ;)