Is Nvidia (NVDA) a Buy at $940?

Is $NVDA still a good buy, even after a +2,000% return in 5 years? In today's video, we'll answer a question from @TechPeeves asking for a deep dive into the stock.
Clearly, there are a lot of strong opinions on NVDA. Let me clarify a few common comments that I’m seeing:
1. “You can’t use dividends to value a growth stock.” Again, following the logic of John Burr Williams, a business is worth what you can get out of it-i.e.: dividends-throughout its entire future discounted back to today. In this case, NVDA has substantial value today because it has substantial dividend-paying abilities-both now and in the future.
2. “No one cares about dividends for NVDA.” I agree; now, NVDA pays out 1.3% of its earnings as dividends. That’s meaningless, especially when its stock price goes up 100% in months. However, as stated in the video, the future dividend projection for NVDA IF it can grow earnings at 20% CAGR and starts to payout 70%+ (which it will when it reaches maturity) is $380 billion. Based on the current market value, that’s an 18% yield-on-cost. If you don’t care about current dividends, fine; I don’t, either. But you should care about future ones; they could be massive.
3. “You’re just mad you missed out on NVDA.” People seem to think I’m anti-NVDA here. I’m not. I’m only pointing out that market expectations are roughly equivalent to iPhone-level growth. (20%). If you think it can grow faster than that, then NVDA is still a good value. If you think it can’t do 20%, then it’s overvalued. That’s all; the ultimate decision is yours. I’m just pointing out the expectations today and cautioning that past growth doesn’t indicate that future growth will be as easy. I never said it’s in a bubble or can’t do 20%; you likely know more than I do about that topic. Besides, I own some NVDA as part of my portfolio. Stop saying that I hate it; I don’t.
4. “Valuations are irrelevant.” If that’s the case, you could pay $7 trillion for NVDA, and it wouldn’t be a bad investment. Come on, people. Valuations are difficult, but that doesn’t mean they don’t matter; in the end, valuations are all that matter when it comes to making investments.
5. “You just took a canned growth rate you saw online.” I don’t understand this one. I backed into the 20% growth rate based on the model described in the video; I never even checked the growth rate for NVDA, nor do I check growth rates for any stock. I think they are trash estimates, so I don’t care.
I appreciate all of the great back-and-forth. Keep it civil. We’re all on the same team here-just trying to make smarter investment decisions.
If you're interested in running reverse dividend discount models on other companies, I'll attach the Excel spreadsheet to this post on Patreon: / reverse-dividend-10091...
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00:00 - Intro
00:26 - 2,000% in 5 years?!
01:15 - First Level vs. Second Level Thinking
03:28 - The key to Warren Buffett’s success
04:00 - Dividend discount model assumptions
06:59 - Valuing NVDA
11:10 - How hard is 20%+ CAGR for 15 years?
12:16 - It all boils down to this question…
12:45 - Risks to growth
14:11 - Thank you Patreon supporters!
#valuation #nvda #nvidia
DISCLAIMER: This is entertainment only, not investment advice. All opinions expressed are my own. Any stocks or ETFs mentioned may be owned or taken a position within the next 48 hours. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed it so be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell a security of personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. This is prepared for informational purposes only. It does not address specific investment objectives, or the financial situation and the particular needs of any person who may receive this report. The information herein was obtained from various sources. Dividend Growth Machine LLC does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided by third parties. The information in this report is given as of the date indicated and is believed to be reliable. Dividend Growth Machine LLC assumes no obligation to update this information or to advise on further developments relating to it.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Clearly, there are a lot of strong opinions on NVDA. Let me clarify a few common comments that I’m seeing: 1. “You can’t use dividends to value a growth stock.” Again, following the logic of John Burr Williams, a business is worth what you can get out of it-i.e.: dividends-throughout its entire future discounted back to today. In this case, NVDA has substantial value today because it has substantial dividend-paying abilities-both now and in the future.
 2. “No one cares about dividends for NVDA.” I agree; now, NVDA pays out 1.3% of its earnings as dividends. That’s meaningless, especially when its stock price goes up 100% in months. However, as stated in the video, the future dividend projection for NVDA IF it can grow earnings at 20% CAGR and starts to payout 70%+ (which it will when it reaches maturity) is $380 billion. Based on the current market value, that’s an 18% yield-on-cost. If you don’t care about current dividends, fine; I don’t, either. But you should care about future ones; they could be massive.
 3. “You’re just mad you missed out on NVDA.” People seem to think I’m anti-NVDA here. I’m not. I’m only pointing out that market expectations are roughly equivalent to iPhone-level growth. (20%). If you think it can grow faster than that, then NVDA is still a good value. If you think it can’t do 20%, then it’s overvalued. That’s all; the ultimate decision is yours. I’m just pointing out the expectations today and cautioning that past growth doesn’t indicate that future growth will be as easy. I never said it’s in a bubble or can’t do 20%; you likely know more than I do about that topic. Besides, I own some NVDA as part of my portfolio. Stop saying that I hate it; I don’t.
 4. “Valuations are irrelevant.” If that’s the case, you could pay $7 trillion for NVDA, and it wouldn’t be a bad investment. Come on, people. Valuations are difficult, but that doesn’t mean they don’t matter; in the end, valuations are all that matter when it comes to making investments.
 5. “You just took a canned growth rate you saw online.” I don’t understand this one. I backed into the 20% growth rate based on the model described in the video; I never even checked the growth rate for NVDA, nor do I check growth rates for any stock. I think they are trash estimates, so I don’t care. I appreciate all of the great back-and-forth. Keep it civil. We’re all on the same team here-just trying to make smarter investment decisions.Thanks to all of you for continuing to support my work, and especially thank you to all my Patreon & KZbin supporters for helping me increase my research budget to continue bringing quality, data-driven, no-hype investment content to the interwebs! 😎www.patreon.com/nathanwinklepleck

[@classicgameplay10]

Once it changes its name to Skynet, buying it wont be an option anymore.

[@robertmccamman4630]

Logic says it couldn't do what it already has done. It is insane to think one company can have so many geniuses on their staff and they are working as a team. All I know is that my investment has tripled and I don't think the run is over.

[@gladiator-007]

@@robertmccamman4630so would u say that its in a bubble now?

[@mikepolls3032]

The stock just started has a lot of room to grow maybe triple

[@robertmccamman4630]

Nvidia is a truly extraordinary company who has the AI platform of the future. Those who have already climbed aboard the Nvidia train will get the ride of a lifetime and those who doubt can share their regrets with each other. Either way life goes on.

[@EvelynManley]

I feel investors should focus on under-the-radar stocks, considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises plummeting stocks that were once revered. I don't know where to go here out of devastation.

[@Susanhartman.]

AI Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.

[@Grace.milburn]

you’re right! The current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner

[@mikegarvey17]

Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.

[@mariaguerrero08]

@@mikegarvey17How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

[@mikegarvey17]

"Gertrude Margaret Quinto" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment

[@ThomasChai05]

I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me.

[@Vivienedouglass]

Great video,I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, looking for companies to make additions to boost performance

[@MickyGlover]

I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.

[@kurtKking]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

[@donovantobs]

Glad to have stumbled on this comment, Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?

[@kurtKking]

Her name is ‘Michele Katherine Singh’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@donovantobs]

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks

[@Lewyn298]

Been beating myself up a bit that I sold my 53 shares of NVDA at $303 each back in May 2023. Now thinking of liquidating a few other investments to rebuy but afraid to do so. I also currently have 500k in savings making me next to nothing.

[@84gaynor]

Everyone needs a Margin of Safety in their portfolios and just remember, It's time in the market versus timing the market.

[@gagnepaingilly]

Certain Ai companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, i think it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary for guidance

[@sommersalt88]

De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.

[@Shultz4334]

this is all new to me, where do I find a fiduciary, can you recommend any?

[@sommersalt88]

"Jennifer Leigh Hickman" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment

[@jameswood9772]

Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.

[@alexyoung3126]

the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.

[@chris-pj7rk]

thats really massive!How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

[@chris-pj7rk]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing

[@chris-pj7rk]

Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%. Please what could be my safest buys with $400k to outperform the market in 2024?

[@alexyoung3126]

I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. The 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Save your cash for when the market actually shows sign of recovery.

[@jameswood9772]

How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?.

[@jameswood9772]

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

[@wallywally1984]

S&p 500 is the safest with 10.6% annual returns . I just put in 20k in CMG, but if you close to retirement S&p 500 and bonds

[@CherylInge-]

Bought NVDA at around $290. I invest with a financial advisor who trades for me and I'm compounding a bit over $850k.

[@DanRivers-ot6si]

That’s good. I snowballed from 130k last year to over 900k trading stocks with my FA, Ann Marie Celentano. It's a method I'm glad I embraced.

[@Favene-wu8uv]

I've found this lady you mentioned on google and she's impressive. I was also able to reach out, thanks for sharing.

[@atetraxx]

@@Favene-wu8uv seems like a scam

[@Mr-sweeny]

AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.

[@Nernst96]

I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Facing a similar situation, I sought advice from an invęstment advisęr. Through portfolio restructuring and diversification with good ETFs, S&P 500 and growth stocks, I've turned my portfolio around from $200k to over $800k in a few years.

[@sattler96]

Your invt-adviser must be really good, I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same invt-adviser and how I can get in touch with them?

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@sattler96]

I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

[@KarenLavia]

I read that Nvidia provides tech for crypto mining services/blockchain transactions. Could the current crypto pump be attributed to Nvidia’s great earnings and should I hold some crypto as well, cos tbh I’m having FOMO with the current crypto price at 64k.

[@CraigLloyd-fz6ns]

Microstrategy CEO bought $155million worth of bitcoin, so yes BUY!

[@Suleferdinand]

It’s going to be a wild year for these sectors, so you should def. invest in crypto. 60% of my portfolio is spread across tech stocks, crypto and Crypto/Gold ETFs.

[@Stellaanderson-qx5nl]

well the crypto market is expected to do way better than any other equity sectors this 2024 especially with the SEC crypto ETF approval but it’s a volatile market nevertheless and if you’re new to it, it’s best to reach out to an experienced adviser for proper guidance.

[@nicolasbenson009]

Yes, my asset manager advised I spread further into mutual funds and crypto Etf and boy am I glad I did. The whole idea is: Don’t get too greedy and also to exit at the right time, so generally I do find having an adviser very helpful, because what Avg. Joe really has time to watch and comprehensively analyse the market.

[@SandraDave.]

could you recommend some good advisers? don’t get me wrong, I already have an asset manager, but he seems not to know much about crypto.

[@Axalalavaara-ys3kp]

Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 17k in last month 2024

[@Chefmarcus1]

Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?

[@Carlsbenjamin1]

I'm 65 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??

[@Axalalavaara-ys3kp]

Mrs. Juliana Heidi was my hope during the "bear summer" last year. I did so many mistakes but at the same time learnt so much from it, and of course from Juliana.

[@bryanvaughn2]

Honestly? I'm so excited. Juliana Heidi strategy has normalized winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started

[@khatty1989-H]

Love it! Juliana is doing great things for this world and I'm on board with that! Slowly increasing and staking my investment while the ecosystem is developing.❤

[@janedaniel4646]

I'm admittedly bummed that I didn't go with my gut instinct & buy bitcoin few months back when it was $20k - $25k range. is it too late to get in and make profits? i have set aside $450k to get fully invested this year

[@wilsonkrusk8652]

I don't think it is. Once bitcoin crosses it's all time high, it becomes the new bottom. Anything under 69k is a good buy. It's still advisable to work with a fiduciary advisor instead of relying solely on speculations

[@GrahamCan]

The only issue you might have is the fear of missing out, just like everyone else. A good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors in exploring new market opportunities, but over the past 10years I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure.

[@mykreid]

Great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time

[@GrahamCan]

Finding financial advisors like Olivia Maria Lucas who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@mykreid]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@NicoleBarker-he2vp]

One question please! Is NVIDIA a safe buy to outperform the market this year? I'm tired of these new buys every week, just to make up some assets with low percentage on my $236k portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%.

[@RossiPopa]

Yes, but do your own research. Avoid index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for now. Consider 5% fixed incomes as a safer option. Alternatively, consider hiring or working with a good market strategist for added safety.

[@RusuSilva]

Took control of my portfolio, faced losses in 2022. Seeking change, consulted a fiduciary advisor. Restructured and diversified with dividend stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds, and REITs. Portfolio surged to $610k with an annualized gain of 28%.

[@FusunTumsavas-cq7tp]

Your advsor must be really good, how I can get in touch with them as my porfolio isnt doing well.

[@RusuSilva]

Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@FusunTumsavas-cq7tp]

I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.

[@christeng142]

I agree that NVDA is seen as the "Stock of the year." I'm interested in identifying potential stocks that could emulate META's growth over the next decade. With $250k allocated for investment, my goal is to retire comfortably.

[@patrickjones1392]

AI, in my opinion, will be the next big thing. Refraining from making snap decisions based on transient fluctuations is essential for long-term growth similar to META. Put patience and a long-term view first, and if you want to make well-informed purchasing and selling decisions, consult a financial advisor.

[@richarddamien4654]

Facing a similar situation, I sought advice from an invęstment advisęr. Through portfolio restructuring and diversification with good ETFs, S&P 500 and growth stocks, I've turned my portfolio around from $150k to over $700k in a few years.

[@christeng142]

Your invt-adviser must be really good, I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same invt-adviser and how I can get in touch with them?

[@richarddamien4654]

She goes by ‘’monicamary Strigle ’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.

[@christeng142]

Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.

[@SofiaDiego-]

My spouse and I are adding a variety of stocks/ETF to my present holdings for the long term, We've set aside $250k to start following inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, I believe it is a good time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know means of actualizing short term profit.

[@mayalucia-]

Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.

[@Alejandrolucia-s]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

[@Adrianaluca-um6ny]

How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.

[@Alejandrolucia-s]

Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

[@EsmeraldaEsmeralda-w]

Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.{

[@Charlottehornets4]

I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Strayer

[@EricLopez4167]

Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

[@Jessecote875]

You trade with Natalie Strayer too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@Heatherwileywiley]

YES!!! That's exactly her name (Natalie Strayer) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her from Brisbane Australia🇦🇺

[@Chrishorton23880]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@Scottweeier846]

I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills.

[@garyscott9261]

Bought NVDA in 2018 @ a current unit cost of $100. Sold 250 shares late last year at $385. One of the worst decisions I’ve made. Those 250 shares would be worth $210k now. But overall I’m still happy.

[@mdmoz1777]

Not yet 300k, more like 211k.

[@garyscott9261]

@@mdmoz1777 still a lot of money for a poor boy like me. 😂

[@garyscott9261]

@@Dust_in_the_wind__ I still have quite a bit more but I won’t sell another share.

[@chungkuo4928]

@@Dust_in_the_wind__I have had the same situations with you!

[@oliverchalfant7923]

same 😭

[@holyhandgrenadeofantioch2019]

I have traded NVDA several times, making hundreds of $$$ along the way. Meanwhile, I lost thousands of $$$ by not holding my shares. 🤦🏼‍♂️

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Coffee can it!! 😁

[@robertmccamman4630]

Even Charles Payne made the same mistake. The sad part is when ego won't allow you to get back in the saddle with this dynamic company.

[@BrandononIce-sk7fx]

I spent a year staring at charts trying to figure out ways to swing trade in and out of volatile, high potential growth stocks. Then it dawned on me that it would be simpler and more profitable to just buy and hold about five of the more promising ones. Started buying NVDA in Feb, 2023. So thankful I did.

[@flipflop6525]

That's what happens to day traders. Don't do it! Also, you don't want to fall in love with a stock. Haven't watched the video yet. Most are saying, that it is overall considering everything, it is cheap.

[@jrsands]

If you think the stock is going to go up buy the “top of the stock” by buying LEAPS. However, you’ve gotta pick a strike price and an expiration date at least a year away. Last Thanksgiving I bought 2 $500 Jan 2025 options @ $93 ($18,600 invested) when the stock was trading in the mid to high $400s. Those options are trading at $472 for a better than $400% return (if I sold now) in 4 months. My plan is to convert to stock later this year and hold the shares for a few years.

[@SpencerKelvin172]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart.

[@JeffreyAdams285]

Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

[@RebeccaLynn788]

She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families in United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states

[@Troymatthew525]

You trade with Michelle Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@ElaineRich321]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@Harold560]

I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much

[@bob5365]

First of all people don't own NVDA for its dividend, which is currently .02%. They own it for its growth potential. They own it because they are not only the lead player in a new and life changing time, they are creating their own growing market. They don't just sell chips. They sell an entire platform, and are leaders in many new and growing fields. They WILL be the biggest company in a couple years. Their margins are tremendous, and their competition will only be able to nibble at their heels for years to come. I'm an owner since 2008 and it has already made me a millionaire. I haven't sold any shares yet and I believe we'll see at least a double from its current level in 2-3 years if not sooner. This is a buy and hold stock and I believe it's still cheap at these levels.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

I’m not saying people own it today for their dividends. I’m saying the value of it depends on its future dividend paying abilities, which logically must be true about all businesses. All good points, though. Appreciate your thoughtful comments!

[@Khad-en1di]

Awesome video, well im pretty much good with my steady earns with coach spencer

[@Khad-en1di]

he's mostly on Telegrams

[@Khad-en1di]

using this user name

[@Khad-en1di]

tradinghold 7

[@tanjaivankovic2998]

his got nice credentials and his quite reliable

[@Diggiamarino]

i can tell you for a fact that he plays a major role to my finances

[@MK-nv8sl]

Most of the assumptions are dubious, especially the dividend paying model itself. The reason why NVIDIA has been rising so fast is not related to dividend expectations - it is related to AI market size expectations. The market size is estimated by AMD’s CEO as four hundred billion, and will grow. NVIDIA has 90% of it. A lot more valid question is whether the current AI technology based on transformer model will cool off and be replaced with a more general AI methodology and require less compute. Less compute is highly unlikely, probably a lot more compute will be needed.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

All business value is rooted in the future dividend capacity, which NVDA has an insanely high amount of.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

By the way, dividend yield on cost would be 18% at a $380 billion payout in 15 years. They could easily do that, if earnings grew as forecasted. The AI narrative is driving earnings, which drives dividends. They aren’t relevant now, but they will eventually be very relevant and drive a lot of the future value of NVDA.

[@thomasslinger287]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA I dont buy your funny made up math nor your self promoting of yourself to make money for yourself. Lot of evil people playing stupid games.

[@phillipperkins5476]

@@thomasslinger287 huh??

[@MK-nv8sl]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA​​⁠ An idea that all business valuations must be based on dividend payoff calculation is a formal exercise similar to an idea of a non-existent “rational investor”. There are no rational investors - this is a long outdated fantasy.

[@bawiliankhum]

Thanks for sharing

[@Ricgibs]

Lately i got interested in crypto but has no idea on how to go about it. How does it work please

[@ivar766]

in my case Fergus waylen has assisted me in doing that effectively, I'm not an expert so I lack experience in investment strategies, I work and my consultant handles the rest.

[@WelseyWalker]

Yes I'm familiar with him. Fergus Waylen demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit.

[@nissan38p69]

I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of his clients testimony on CNBC news last week.

[@LindaHarmel]

I didn't know you guys knew Fergus Waylen . He's been great and has helped me balance the scale in my trades and job with his insights and auto trades. This helps to avoid my emotions altering a trade.

[@Georgina705]

He's definitely a top player in the trading world, His ability to make successful trades is really impressive.

[@zebbie09]

I bought Apple in 2008…. This feels a lot like Apple in 2011 or so. I am sure there were a lot of Apple bears back then too. The thing I like about Nvidia is the business model. How it has solutions across vertical markets and how it is offering software as well. And now they are working on robots? So with me, the good news is that I have owned since 2022. The bad news is that I further jumped on the hype train and added to my position at these levels. The main issue is executing to meet demand. If it can meet demand, it can absolutely continue this run….

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Very well stated and that could definitely be a good parallel. They have the runway; can they execute and meet expectations? Time will tell…

[@ThiiiiiisGuy]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA I’m watching this curious how April first will go lol. Obviously I won’t get my answer until it comes. But I am attempting to exit Nvidia at a good price before going to s&p500

[@SteveDutton-v]

I've owned NVDA for over 8 years. It's been up and down, but I believe in Jensen Huang and will stick with NVDA until Jensen says otherwise. I know that sounds crazy, but when the financial statements/Jensen, (same to me) tell me to sell, I will. I'm sure I won't sell at the top, but that's OK.

[@AllenNichol]

Kept $105k in CIT Bank HYSA at 5.05% but i now plan to invest in the stock market. What are your thoughts on that? What stocks should I look out for as a newbie to safely grow my money?

[@tmer831]

Find stocks with yields that exceed the market and stocks that, at the very least, follow the long-term market trend. However, you should get guidance from a financial advisor if you want to create a successful long-term plan...

[@SeanTalkoff]

Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2019, and I return at least $121k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.

[@AllenNichol]

If you don't mind, how can I reach this advisrr? My retirement portfolio isnt doing greatly.

[@SeanTalkoff]

Vivian Carol Gioia is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@etchvee]

What do you think about using DCF analysis to calculate intrinsic value? There’s a judgement call around future growth rate. Would you agree that NVDA is overpriced right now? And if so, approx by how much. Thanks.

[@RoseMyers-hf2mm]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Elizabeth Wesley.

[@RoseMyers-hf2mm]

she's mostly on Telegrams, with the user name.

[@RoseMyers-hf2mm]

Wesley215 💯

[@littleturtle5818]

Thanks for the video, I have a better understanding of how the DCF model works now. Looks like that 1) in order to use the DCF model, one would need to make a lot of assumptions, the result would almost never be accurate, 2) it's more important to understand a company's business than the DCF model itself, 3) I think the vast majority of people buying or intending to buy a stock, even if long-term investors, would not hold for more than a few years, instead, most of them just want to catch the few year period of the high growth, once the growth slows down, they will get out.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Nailed it on all three points!

[@muskyful]

Started buying PLTR ( $10.80 dca) & NVDA ($170 dca) in 2022 for a 5-7 yr hold .... now my only wish is I should have loaded up even more !!!

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Nice buys! 🙌

[@eti-isang5962]

For a novices who want to buy, what & were should he start from

[@danwesson1934]

I would be curious to hear your thoughts on HSY. Its not flashy or anything but like what is brings to the table. Good growth and dividend keeps chugging along.

[@raysilva3148]

Some mutual funds only invest in stocks that pay dividends (like total return funds), I can only guess it’s why NVDA pays this small dividend. Otherwise they can invest it to expand growth.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Exactly. Eventually they will pay big dividends, but only when insane growth phase is over. That’s why they haven’t raised the dividend in years; good call by their management team.

[@onuri1540]

Is there any other stocks like Nvidia?

[@Bob-ke9in]

Thankyou Nathan for that quality analysis of Nvidia. I own a bit and do agree that I would not be a buyer at the current price. However, I don't believe your dividend discount analysis considers the price of the stock at the end of the time period. All things being equal increased earnings and dividends should lead to an increased in the stock price. Shouldn't that estimate should also be factored into return on investment calculations?

[@lsuandy9902]

The future potentials of NVDA is unpredictable, I think it will be much larger than anything we've seen. And I think it's not too late to jump on the NVDA train. I bought shares since 2020, held on to them in 2022, and plan to hold most of my shares until 2030.

[@jeffrose5622]

NVIDIA will be a minimum $1,200 stock by the end of 2024 and most likely a $1,500 stock!

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Comments like this are what make me more confident in the opposite.

[@gokhanarslan6320]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA Then I am saying "NVIDIA will be a maximum $100 stock by the end of 2024" to cancel out his comment

[@Itsmetahh]

@@gokhanarslan6320 so stock split, gotcha. Right ?

[@HoverHP]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA He's probably somewhat right lol

[@jeffrose5622]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA short it DF.

[@BubbaBlackmon]

Warren Buffet said "in the early 1900's , if you could see 100 years into the future , the millions of cars on the road, an obvious investment would have been automobile manufactures. However of the hundreds of companies that tried to build cars only 3 survived". People are paying premium prices for any company mentioning involvement in AI. NVDA will likely do well but a lot of money could be lost over paying for companies that will not meet expectations related to AI.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Yeah, obvious industry trends aren’t always good investments; NVDA definitely has moat characteristics and winner-take-all dynamics, unlike car companies, but the market is definitely pricing a lot in.

[@shinsource]

I think the move right now we're seeing in Nvidia is a technical push to force a stock split, historically most stock splits on megacaps are bullish short term. The liquidity from 500-1000 on Nvidia is quite thin looking at volume profile. Bidding up on low volume will generate extra volume for big institutions to sell into. I think if expectations don't meet in a future ER we're setting up for one of the biggest gap downs on a megacap ever, similar to NFLX.

[@BrandononIce-sk7fx]

I think technical analysis is too one-dimensional for this generational quantum leap in technology. Sure, the big desks will jerk the rug out from underneath the weak holders from time to time, but the fact remains that NVDA can sell everything it makes, with pricing power, for the next several years.

[@shinsource]

@@BrandononIce-sk7fx Yes but can you really expect exponential gains from here after already adding 1T marketcap in the past 3 months? I remember the Tesla hype back in 2021 when the stock was 1200 presplit everyone was hyping it to be 2000+ within 3 years, now look at it. The major customers of Nvidia is heavily concentrated, if just 1 of them shifts stance or tapers off purchases then the forward P/E will skyrocket.

[@jacqdanieles]

@@shinsource all technology is built on quicksand. Proof of that is in the fortunes of Sun Microsystems, EMC, Lucent, JDS Uniphase, Intel, etc. All were darlings until the ground shifted from under them. As a holder of a small position of NVDA, I plan on adding more on pullbacks & holding for a year or two. But I'll be watching the market like a hawk for any changes in the technology & demand. Atm, nvda is miles away from any competitor. And I expect that to be the case for at least 3 years, maybe 5.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Excellent discussion here. Lots of good points back and forth. I can see both the bullish and bearish cases.

[@Koushi82]

hey dont tell them the truth they wanna pump and dump more

[@juandiaz3651]

If I am not mistaken they expect a growth of about 30% for the coming years which for a 2 T$ company is absolutely crazy. But 20% over the next 15 years seems a little too much. I think if they achieved that growth in the short term it could hike up the price and it could be a good opportunity to sell, or maybe this one is one to coffee can?

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Could be an interesting coffee can, for sure!

[@robbrown4621]

Anyone who thinks they have any idea on what an industry, much less a particular company, will be doing in 15 years is woefully deceiving themselves. The horizon is never more than five years and that's a long, long way off...

[@florin2tube]

Wow! Nice surprise to discover your channel. Subscribed! 😊

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Thanks and welcome

[@themusic6808]

I hold Nvidia as a small long position because I think it’s silly not to when a company is this dynamic & well positioned for the future as well as vertically integrated in different aspects of technology growing revenues like they have. But I wouldn’t bet the whole house on them. AI is more than likely to change the world over the next few decades but the exact timeline is always uncertain and of course it won’t only be one company that leads it. Still a fantastic company irregardless of valuation and an exciting growth story.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Excellent points; I agree that it is dynamic. Very possible that it can do 20%+ over the next 15 years-even exceed it. Appreciate your comments

[@themusic6808]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA Thank you Nathan. None of the current metrics or valuations point to Nvidia being even close to a Cisco yet the bigger they are the harder they can fall. Though it’s not unheard for a disruptive company to make exorbitant returns if they’re so far out ahead of what’s coming look at Microsoft from 1987-1997 did close to a 50,000% return.

[@shellywhite2145]

What are the best additions to a $500k portfolio to boost performance?. ETH is Up and will do better, I believe as indicators for profits continue to improve. investors like me believe that “Santa has come early” to the markets..

[@laurawheeler-zh8gv]

I think you're better off with majority investment in bitcoin and uprising equities cos they always outperform. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on which to acquire

[@shellywhite2145]

wow massive gains! my partner recently hinted on going same direction.. what did you invest in, and who is your investment advisr please, if you don’t mind me asking? in dire need of asset allocation

[@laurawheeler-zh8gv]

ashley airagahi is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment

[@shellywhite2145]

Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her explaining my financial market goals

[@565paolo]

Bots replying to each other's comments 🤦‍♂️

[@kdjones5149]

I bought about $5,000 worth of Nvidia at $36 per share. I made the mistake of selling $20,000 when it got to $500, and another $30,000 when it got to $750. I still have almost $40k left. If I had not sold any, my $5k investment would be worth $90k. I've never had a stock increase more than 100% before. I'm going to hang on to the rest of this stock.

[@MARKXHWANG]

just but it back. a rull to sccessful investment. buy 10% more if stock increase 10%. sell verses versa

[@gregplott3870]

5 or 6 to 1 split should be coming in 2024.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Does that make it a better value or something?

[@jackchoy6969]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA Absolutely not. But it makes it better for options traders who could care less about value and more on gambling.

[@HeroDai2448]

I think they are waiting for the 1K

[@Matthew.M.S.]

Greg: 1 x $100 = $100. 2:1 Split! 2 x $50 = $100 Stocks go down after the split all the time since the split didn’t make a difference, if if goes up after a split it’s not due to the split

[@javaChai]

@@Matthew.M.S. not true. SMH went up parabolic after split. Becomes more affordable to retail investors

[@A_francis]

My preference for NVIDIA stems from their superior positioning in terms of sustaining long-term growth potential and serving as a platform for other AI startups. Are there any other industries that I should diversify my $750k portfolio across? seeking to build a diverse portfolio

[@Debbie.Burton]

Nvidia stock is roaring like many did during the 1990s bubble. But this time around, the hype around new chips is happening in a more mature demand environment.

[@RickWatson-xu6gw]

Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.

[@HarrisRyan-oy8eo]

Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

[@RickWatson-xu6gw]

*Natalie Marie Gentry* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@EverlyndPerez]

I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip

[@susanwingard3389]

How does Apples products cost, profit and available market compare to NVDA’s GPU cost, profit and market? Most expensive IPhone is what $1,600 and GPU’s are selling for $40,000 per unit? If what they are saying about AI, the need for chips will feed into all products. While NVDA will have a lot of competition, it is currently said that the competition is years behind. Does the above not come into play when considering valuation?

[@tukkukuorma608]

So if i understood correctly, nvidia stock would be worth 940$ if we would proceed the next 15 years with 20% growth? And only with better results than that would the stock be justified to rise? Isnt that almost impossible to occur

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

No, 20% growth results in a 10% or so annual return, which is about what the overall market tends to make.

[@tukkukuorma608]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA can you make a video about the concerns of a looming recession, and stock market crash?

[@cirilada1988]

Great analysis! My only point is that the revenue will be around 120B this fiscal year (just look projections), which in your analysis should be happening in 4 to 5 years from now. In my opinion, this makes the stock cheap now.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Great point!!

[@chrisdowns422]

The company can buy back shares. But that's the same as paying dividends in terms of an increased percentage of ownership in the company.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Correct! 👍

[@austinbar]

AI stocks will dominate 2024 but not just AI. NVIDIA, Alphabet, Tesla are at a better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I have made more than 200% ROI from NVIDIA with the help of my stocks advisor. With the help of my advisor I agree that stock Like Twoo would also go higher in the next year and a bit high this year with the announcement of launch of its video game.

[@joshbarney114]

This is Interesting because i bought NVIDIA around September last year. The company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return last year, and I'm sure this year will present other interesting stocks.

[@rogerwheelers4322]

When it comes to investment, diversification is key. That is why I have my interests set on key sectors based on performance and projected growth. They range from the EV sector, renewable energy, Tech and Health (AMD) alongside coins, and gold. I'm also working on an investment plan that includes AI looking into Nvidia, MSFT, Alphabet stocks among others with my Fin. Advisor, . It's been a year and half of steady growth.

[@FabioOdelega876]

I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

[@rogerwheelers4322]

Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@FabioOdelega876]

I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Marisa Breton Dollard up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.

[@mdashfak98]

Absolutely Brilliantly said,without dividend prospects to me a company is just a Bogus selfish Big 0..it doesn't make any sense to me at all equity investment without dividend at some point

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

For NVDA at $380 billion dividends in 15 years, that’s an 18% yield on cost, don’t conflate my point about dividends with “NVDA has no value.” That wasn’t what I was saying at all.

[@tracyallen6722]

Have 42 shares at 44.00$ a share. Can’t wait for the split.

[@faureh]

10% discount rate is 🌶️ Would be interesting if you showed a rate sensitivity matrix.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Is that a hot pepper? Is that good thing? 😂

[@Koushi82]

reserve ratio is 0% its infinite since banks have infinite liquidity while faking 5% hurts them

[@crazyPinay]

What is your price prediction for NVIDIA for Monday March 2025? That’s a good content. daily price prediction.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

😂

[@larrypaul-cw9nk]

I keep telling both friends and family; Now is the perfect time to own a Tech Stock, With everything going on and seeing how the world is been run by AI and all Tech is here to stay and you don’t want to miss it

[@Peterl4290]

With everything going on in the market My advice to anyone starting out in the market is to seek guidance as its the best way to build long term wealth while managing your risk and emotions with the passive investing strategy.

[@Mrshuster]

The only issue you might have is the fear of missing out, just like everyone else. A good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors in exploring new market opportunities, but over the past 10years I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure.

[@sabastinenoah]

Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you?

[@Mrshuster]

‘Vivian Carol Gioia One of the finest portfolio managers in the field also widely recognized. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment.

[@sabastinenoah]

Thank you for sharing. it was easy to find her, then I scheduled a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

[@jacqyeh]

You are telling me NVDA is not going to out perform Chiptole？

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

😂

[@rickytran2378]

America sure does love its Burrito bowls

[@chessmagician2024]

If NVDA got bid up to 100 trillion market cap, do you still think it would outperform chipotle? Fundamentals matter. You can have the best growing company in the world and on the next 30 years but that doesn’t make it a good investment if it has an astronomical market cap already.

[@Janaerys]

I am not sure i agree this model of valuation works for NVDA specifically. There multiple ways to return value to investors outside of dividends like stock appreciation and buybacks. Right? You could use the same argument and say BRK.B is valueless to an investor who went in 15 or 20 years ago because Buffet refuses to pay out dividends.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

The point is not at all that they are valueless. Re-watch it and you’ll see that. They have a ton of value. Future dividends at $380 billion would be an 18% yield on cost in 15 years. 😉

[@Janaerys]

@NathanWinklepleckCFA I am not sure anyone would care if NVDA stopped dividend payouts entirely. One couldn't possibly be investing in this growth stock for expected dividend returns.

[@jimpurewal2661]

Nvidia is not just a financial calculation. The value based on PE/PEG is very cheap. It is all about the need to understand what NVIDIA does and if you believe that market is massive. I bought NVIDIA in 2020 pre-split and am at 12X. I have not sold a single share since I spent a lot of time understanding their technology and not the TV pundits. NVIDIA sells a platform and not just chips. BTW its H100 weighs 70lbs and has 35000 components. Good luck.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Coffee can ☕️ love it!!!

[@rubidiumcratchet3420]

time to buy more nvda

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

That’s pretty much been right on for about 20 years, so I won’t bet against it lol

[@jerryyapkh]

Why are you using dividends model on a high growth stock? Not all investor buy a stock for dividend and in fact most don't. It's for capital appreciation. Dividend of US stocks are peanut in comparison

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

The discounted present value of future dividends are the basis for the value of all businesses.

[@kimb6508]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA I follow real hedge fund managers and they use specific valuations for growth stocks. Traditional valuation methods don't apply here.

[@jeffrose5622]

NO ONE CARES ABOUT DIVIDENDS WITH NVIDIA!!! This is a growth stock. In one day with a $10 increase you'll make more on the stock then a years worth of dividends!!

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Did you watch the video?

[@fictionalreality1010]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFAunfortunately

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

They will care when the dividends are $380 billion and 18% yield on today’s price in 15 years.

[@karlhanso]

Nvidia make buybacks that move increase the price of the stock. Dividens dont matter to much

[@thenerdnetwork]

@@fictionalreality1010 If you watched the video, you would understand why he is talking about first vs. second level of thinking. You and obviously the OP of the comment thread you are replying to, are a part of the first level of thinking. You think "Derrr NVDA is growth stock, AI go boom, me invest now and money grow big!". You are investing on pure speculation without an using any variables beyond that to decide if you should invest or not. This video isn't about that, it is about showing you the second level of thinking, that shows you how to apply an actual model to a company when valuating a stock price. Even if you aren't interested in learning how to use calculations when trying to evaluate a stock, at least show respect for people who do understand how to do the calculations and who take the time to try and explain it to people so maybe it can help them... for free.

[@karlbe8414]

My NVDA is currently at +495% :)

[@karlhanso]

meanwhile other argue that is bubble others buy and wait patiently

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Coffee can! I like it. Congrats on a great stock pick.

[@venkatavineel]

AAPL is not building their own gen AI. They are using Googles. So they are not competing with NVDA in AI.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

True. Good point. 👍

[@user-ef1ng8th5l]

I agree but want to add Apple does have it's own AI & for some reason want to include google idk understand it all yet but guess they have a good reason .. they are not taking AI lightly.

[@Wha2les]

If i were to buy 1 AI stock, it is Nvidia. They are market leader, not complacent, and AMD and Intel would need to do a lot to catch up... And the chip industry shows that is hard to do.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

I’m probably with you on that one.

[@aybjorkk]

i heard all in nvda

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

All aboard! 🔥

[@armandavarvaroi6436]

What is the best website to start investing¿

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Vanguard 👍

[@TonyStackzz]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA Is robinhood good?

[@JimMcNutty]

Valuation only can tell you so much. You can make money on hype and overvaluation. Is it risky yes but worth the risk. Yes trust me as it’s a big part of my portfolio. Are you late to the party, for sure. However, there is still a ton of upside. Valuation aside this can get crazy and irrational. That’s when you want to sell. We are not there yet.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

100% agree. This is rational exuberance.

[@daninspiration4064]

Wait for it to dip under 880 then buy....and keep dcaing every 20 to 30 points...I am sure itll hit 1200 or higher at the end of the year.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

At this pace, it’ll hit 1200 in a month 😆

[@bigbillyz]

Not sure how you derived the revenue guesstimates

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

I backed into them reverse engineering market value to what they need to grow at

[@FatherGapon-gw6yo]

Its pretty hard to avoid AI bubble stocks but I’ve tried pretty hard and done well. Semiconductors I like okay since they do amazing products outside of even AI. There’s foreign markets, equal weighting S&P, small cap, Dow etc etc. Probably everyone’s 401k has more Nvidia than anyone could ever possibly want. No need in regular portfolio.

[@michellehavre6821]

I used your analysis 15 years ago and sold all my Berkshire stocks as it pays no dividend. Today as we can see Berkshire has pay zero dividend and I am so grateful to your warning that this company is worth zero. Thank you

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

You clearly didn’t pay attention.

[@yusufozarslan1796]

Why not,still not overvalued considering growth and potential

[@MoEl-yt6eo]

Is 8k enough to see alot of profits ?

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Depends on how much % that is for your net worth, but I’d say do what makes sense for your portfolio. I own some NVDA, but it’s a relatively small percentage of my portfolio.

[@MoEl-yt6eo]

What have you guys heard about ETH The crypto ?

[@jaybluestine3230]

Crunching numbers isn't my wheelhouse so I might not be understanding you,, that said, you started out by saying that Nvidia will be growing fast for awhile but also gradually slowing down over that time. Bur when you were analyzing the numbers based on the dividend discount model, you said that they need to grow profits at 20.4% a year for the next 15 years to justify it's present value. But how many investors are going to hold Nvidia or any growth stock for 15 years? What if you are a growth investor and are only planning to hold it for five years? If you're looking at a five year window rather than a 15 year window and profits are expected to exceed 20.4% for each of the next five years, doesn't that change the analysis as to whether the current valuation is justified? Also, Nvidia has been growing profits at more than 20.4% and (hopefully) will continue to for some time. So how do these higher growth rates affect what the numbers need to be down the line?

[@SuvviSanthosh]

NVIDA is impacting each and every company and every sector to transition to AI, it is very foolish not to hold it long term. I think it will be the first 5T company very soon and may very well be first 10T in next few years

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

You could definitely be right! Thanks for the comment.

[@lc285]

@NathanWinklepleckCFA - What would the fair market stock price be based on current Financials?

[@DarakeDivz]

Thanks for the rational analysis. Your method (and the many of the illogical comments) prove firsthand why value stocks have out-performed growth over the long haul. Cheers

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Thanks! Lots of passionate people about NVDA calling me a moron lol I’m not necessarily against it; I own some myself. Just trying to estimate what the market thinks it will grow long-term and people are so mad. I don’t understand what I did so wrong 😂

[@bigbillyz]

Do this again using free cash flow pls

[@horizontaldad]

Well I didn’t miss the train on NVDA … what a powerhouse. I have taken out my investment plus a generous additional amount … it’s one of our best investments ever and our second largest position behind Apple. I really appreciate your thoughtful analysis. Perhaps it will morph into a workhorse like TXN and if it slowly does then I will slowly decrease our position size … but I’m more concerned with NVDA being taken to the woodshed someday. But no one knows the future. Thanks again Nathan.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Great buy, Kimm! It’ll slow eventually, but for now it looks like full steam ahead. Not in a bubble at all, from what I can tell.

[@horizontaldad]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA… yes it’s the earnings! … I’ve never seen this before … and the outstanding leadership is likely the reason

[@DeannaMurray-zv]

I am trying to avoid making any new buys at this point in other not to get sucked into a bear market trap.It's tough making money in stocks when institutional investors are the driving force behind the selling.. although I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?

[@JimmyA.Alvarez]

For the average citizen, the tactics are rather demanding. In actuality, most of them are effectively completed by experts who possess the necessary knowledge and skill set to carry out such occupations.

[@BeverleeR.Ziegler]

I agree, before the pandemic got real serious, I used to handle all my investment and I was pretty good at it, fast forward to post-pandemic and my-portfolio is steady in the red with profit rate down to the lowest, that's when I touched-base with a coach I saw featured on businessweek, who restructured my portfolio and over the last couple months, I've made over $850k from initially $210K

[@Erickruiz562]

fascinating! I am new to this whole thing. I've heard that now is a wonderful time to buy, and basically, I have some cash hanging around in the bank that I would really like to spend, especially since inflation is at an all-time high. Who is this coach that helps you, and may I check them up?

[@BeverleeR.Ziegler]

@@Erickruiz562 I work with Alicia Ann Jordan, a licensed fiduciary. Simply look up the name. The information you need to work with a letter to schedule an appointment would be included.

[@BeverleeR.Ziegler]

@@Erickruiz562 I work with Alicia Ann Jordan, a licensed fiduciary. Simply look up the name. The information you need to work with a letter to schedule an appointment would be included.

[@robertmccamman4630]

I think NVDA is a buy at $875. It may be another month before we get any updates of the company sales and revenues. Also a stock split will happen in 2024 and energize more retail investors. I see $1,100 as my target for end of 2024 (adjusted for split).

[@user-vu7rt7dn9i]

Could someone just buy the invidia stock for mabee 2 or 3 months and then just sell it ? It seems as if it might be going up for at least that long. I understand it has already grown 2000 percent but at least another few months might have growth

[@PooriaAzizi]

How about selling NVDA? Should I sell some of the NVDA and invest in other stocks instead?

[@falgunpatil2372]

I'm all for doing all research/analysis to your heart's content but in the end expect the answer - whether you would buy a given stock at current price or not? 🤔I'm buying NVDA today and have a strong conviction that I will make more than market return in one year! I And I respect each and everyone who share their their opinion for or against it as they need to vote with their own $$ 😄

[@Sebas66301]

I mean the earnings reassured the stock price and growth but why didn’t anyone buy when it was under 150 !! ? 😂

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Someone did 😜

[@user-vm7ey9pu3o]

Got in at $46.00

[@Sebas66301]

@@user-vm7ey9pu3o that’s great but have you trimmed any along the way especially within the last month ? And how of your portfolio is NVDA ? 10 percent 2 percent ? It’s not about when you got in it’s about how do you manage the winner and the mental part of owning this stock .

[@jrsands]

@@user-vm7ey9pu3oFive years ago. The catalyst was it acquired Mellanox in 2019.

[@user-ef1ng8th5l]

I bought for much less than that like $30 because i read i listened to the genius visionary Jensen Huang & intuitively knew this co was not just a game chip & crypto co. I just saw the future of it & i held every share.. even when it was being dismissed.

[@simonvesterchristensen510]

I’ve been holding on to NVIDIA since it cost only 15.57 USD. It’s an almost 6000% increase. Really hard to understand. I guess luck is important too.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Well done! Great buy. Appreciate your comment and support.

[@userjoe4321]

Maybe. But be careful not to be the one holding the bag. When this stock corrects... I think it will be years before it gets back to its current price.

[@userjoe4321]

@HD-um6yw all the best 👍

[@masoncnc]

So what you're say is; there's a chance?

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

lol yeah!! 👍

[@robertwalker9670]

Just bought Nvidia a week ago. I wish that I wouldve saw this video before.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

You’ll be alright 👍 just a bad week!

[@ibraheemali9541]

They are doing stock split

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

So… what does that mean?

[@sebastiaanthijn7982]

But my question is what stocks can be the next APPL in terms of growth for the next decade? I've set asides 500k to invest and my goal is to retire comfortably rich.

[@georgeearling905]

finding it more productive and safe to buy growth/ blue-chip stocks rather than tech stocks. It's advisable to work with a fiduciary advisor for well-diversified portfolios instead of relying solely on speculations.

[@christopherherbert2407]

Agreed, After taking charge of my portfolio in early 2017, i stumbled into losses. Upon realizing that a change was necessary, I consulted a fiduciary advisor in 2020 and since then my 1.2m portfolio has gained 28% annually through restructuring and diversification using dividend equities, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.

[@ericbergman7546]

That's a nice gain! How did you find a good one

[@cherylhills3227]

I Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.

[@wehrine]

I started investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about 200,578 after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost 673,000

[@robertmccamman4630]

I only buy the dips but we are seeing higher lows and higher highs.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

I gave up trying to buy dips. LOL that’s missed more stocks for me than anything else. I was waiting for GWW, PGR, MMC, MUSA, NVR, and many more to dip… They never did.

[@robertmccamman4630]

I think if I will stick with NVDA, META, AMZN, and GOOGL and do just fine. It really comes down to what is your level of greed (in the good sense). Once the FOMC starts cutting the interest rates money will flow back into stocks from bonds. If you go into options you can make money whether the market goes up or down. As I get older the stock market has become a game for me; you just need to keep track of the market trend.

[@robertmccamman4630]

You just had dips in the above stocks in Feb/March, I guess you missed it.

[@Gandalf17]

I still dont see companies replacing employees with AI, i dont see AI making money making machines.

[@robbrown4621]

I recall my great grandmother telling me that she couldn't believe that there would ever be light without fire.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

I agree; I think this is like computers-makes people more productive, but not replacing them entirely

[@robbrown4621]

Thank you for your reply. In my view I think we may see a plethora of very different outcomes, some of which will replace all human beings in certain processes and in others humans will be serving in partnership within certain particular AI paradigms. One thing for sure, this will dwarf what computers have so far brought to humanity. My feeling is that AI will be much closer to the development of electricity as a game changer (the most important human scientific development since the creation of the wheel) than either computers, the internet, or NASA. @@NathanWinklepleckCFA

[@xumarc9876]

So u are roughly saying that Msft and Meta are doing the dumbest things.They are investing tons of dollars for nothing…

[@Olvera_emi]

Not one real person in the comment section. Wow

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

You are real!! Haha

[@kyungshim6483]

I missed the train on nvda, but I missed the train on so many other great companies such as apple, microsoft, amazon, google, etc.... I don't let FOMO get to me.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

That’s tough to do. A good mentality!

[@xanbarclaps9090]

Based off of your analysis would you have been just as hesitant on nvda 5 or so years ago? Many conservative or ‘rational’ investors try to rationalize why an ‘expensive’ stock can’t climb higher with various types of analysis.

[@robertmccamman4630]

I hesitated when netflix, microsoft, and apple trains left the station but I hopped aboard nvidia trains and it is making up for all my previous misses. I'm sorry you just watched the nvidia train leave the station and lost your chance to make millions. Better luck on your future decisions but I'm staying with this ride.

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Who says I don’t own it?

[@user-ef1ng8th5l]

@@NathanWinklepleckCFA because if you did & knew what Nvdia is capable of you wouldn't do a ridiculous analysis about dividends!!!!

[@crohmer]

Jerk store is open folks

[@crohmer]

Grow up you guys

[@rickytran2378]

so did you answer the question? Is it a buy at $940?

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

LOL 😂 you are the first one to figure that out… I never actually gave my opinion. Everyone in the comment section seems to think I said not to buy it, but the entire point was… can they grow at 20%+ over the next 15 years? That’s iPhone-level growth. If they can, it’s worth current valuation. If more than 20%, it’s still a buy. If less than 20%, then it’s overpriced-how much depends on how much they disappoint.

[@rickytran2378]

I am definitely not buying at this price. I have been buying from the $300 to $600 range. I will buy again if it drops back down to the last time i bought in the $680s. @@NathanWinklepleckCFA

[@eversunnyguy]

When do you think NVDA will split ?

[@HoverHP]

time will tell. A split doesn't really matter

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Spot on. Split doesn’t impact you at all. 2x shares and 1/2 the price = same ending value

[@pattylovesneal]

Yes a split does matter! Look at Chipolte and see that it popped the few days after split. Jenson said last week at the conference that he wants a split for his employees. he would run the risk of them leaving for other start ups at a lowert stock price if they cannot afford to buy this stock. Also, Walmart did the very same thing 3 weeks ago for the said reasons. I see a split by may or June or an announcement which will be positive for the stock in my opinion.

[@eversunnyguy]

@@pattylovesneal I was going to say exactly what you said...CMG story...Amen

[@eversunnyguy]

@@pattylovesneal Actually CMG shot up 70 bucks post market minutes after it announced the split...Only insider will have this news. No one can guess the time

[@TYTY-qh8uh]

Nice

[@NathanWinklepleckCFA]

Thanks

[@robertgeorge238]

Wealth is built in both bull or bear market and also wealth transfers from the impatient to the patient. One of the best ways to succeed in crypto is by trading your assets with a good strategy,.,.,

[@Brookeinda]

I’m celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today. I started this journey with 6k. I have invsted on time and also with the right terms now I have time for my family and the life ahead of me

[@ramadhanipongela1360]

Wow, this is really amazing. How do you come about it