Is Relativity Space's Terran-R Rocket In Trouble?

[@nickfutter6544]

It’s been in trouble from day 1. Rocket Lab are always very accurate and honest with their predictions and roadmap.

[@Honestraccoon]

I can already see this scene in Wild Wild Space 2. Once the contracts have to move over to Neutron and SPB is just like.. yep.. we launched them for full price.

[@daveginvesting]

@@Honestraccoon unfortunately I don't think Ashlee is filming the dev of Terran-R or Neutron but if he was I'd love it!

[@trimeta]

I've remarked elsewhere that the funniest thing is Rocket Lab now advertises their large-scale carbon fiber fabrication services as a separate line of business. So they're doing the "use our manufacturing tools for external customers" thing that everyone thought Relativity would pivot to...only they're doing it better, because they haven't shown the world that *even they themselves* think it's better to use Old Space subcontractors like Beyond Gravity rather than their own equipment.

[@daveginvesting]

@@trimeta this is an interesting point!

[@manofsan]

Relativity CEO Tim Ellis was spouting a lot of buzzwords -- 3D printing, big data, etc -- to people who weren't mechanical engineers (that guy Chamath Palihapitiya studied electrical engineering, as did Jeff Bezos, yet he doesn't seem to have even a basic understanding of metallurgy)

[@FunkyMoneysAndGoldSniffers]

Thank you Dave. You are the man.

[@daveginvesting]

@@FunkyMoneysAndGoldSniffers thanks!

[@nickfutter6544]

Smoke and mirrors. Bet the investors wished they’d invested in RKLB this year

[@TheHolzing]

I bet that they offered their customers two things: 1. No upfront payment. 2. Cancellable at any point by the customer.

[@manofsan]

Hey Dave - while Relativity is falling down, Rocket Lab is moving onward and upward! Stock price has stayed in the 7's for the past week!

[@Mark_Kiwi]

Relativity seems to me to be another example (Astra?) of these Silicon valley VC fueled vapour-ware bros, more interested in cashing out their share compensation before it all goes tits up than actually doing stuff properly.

[@BarbsUsedCars]

Comes off to me like a case of overly ambitious idea’s without a clear plan to execute. A “we’ll figure that out later” type situation. I don’t get the same Shady scammer vibe from Tim Ellis that I immediately got from Chris Kemp

[@JackMott]

they did get a 3d printed booster up there, even if it never made sense to 3d print a metal tube

[@barryscott6222]

Yip. I'll bet someone is syphoning money out of the company somewhere.

[@GD-L80]

Tim Ellis wanted to imitate Elon Musk as a salesman but came up short, partly because he did not surround himself with people like Tom Mueller, who could do the ‘dirty’ work, the real engineering work behind the bombastic statements.

[@BarbsUsedCars]

I first heard of Relativity when Veritasium made a video about them three years ago. As a space nerd, it’s kind of sad to see what they’ve become. But as someone with RKLB shares good luck Tim, my moneys on Peter and his team.

[@daveginvesting]

@@BarbsUsedCars same, Tim did seem to have a laudable goal but they haven't had the execution we hoped for. He'll always get nerd points for being a StarCraft fan as well!

[@geopoli3735]

Very insightful to see that Rocket Lab and Relativity have raised the same amount for dramatically different results. Once Neutron is on the pad, 1-2y before the Terran R, the game will be set

[@spongerob72]

I really just think that Relativity has been trying to model itself on spacex and it constantly gives ASTRA vibes, just with the benefit of private VC money. I can't help thinking that a day of reckoning will come where they have to deliver or pack up.

[@RyanBlockb5]

Chamal often pulls the rugs on stocks. Swearing he's 100% in, then dumps the stock leaving others holding the bag. Relativity is probably going to be a great company. But be careful when ever Chamal is pumping a company.

[@daveginvesting]

@@RyanBlockb5 this does seem to be the M.O unfortunately

[@rowland5951]

Just like Big Data, 3D printing, and Web3, it comes down to who can tell the best story. Leverage media contacts through the VC firms that back them to pump as much as possible. Chamath being involved should have been a dead giveaway not to take notice.

[@daveginvesting]

@@rowland5951 he is definitely a red flag to me these days.

[@shepdogsd]

Almost Ponzi Scheme. Out of money? Let's get some more contracts. It's like a contractor who takes YOUR money to finish the LAST job and he never quite catches up and it all comes falling down. Another reason to respect Peter Beck's disiplined business accumen.

[@Rav4ikOL]

Elizabeth holmes/Sam Bankman-fried/Tim Ellis At this point when i see Chamath Helipopotito being in then I immidiately assume that some sort of scam is taking place here.

[@vladimirhaviernik3568]

Exactly same vibes. Last thing that is missing is Tim Ellis on the cover of Forbes top 400 😅

[@russellginns6203]

Nobody cares how the rocket gets made. It just has to launch (with a passing grade.)

[@AIWhale3]

You should make a video of all the times pump and dump Chamath has been proven wrong. His comments about Rocketlab, “the incapable New Zealand competitor” or his 2020 Virgin Galatic comments have just been hilariously wrong. And then his comments about Relativity, he clearly was trying to pump Relatively to take it public via SPAC before the bubble burst.

[@daveginvesting]

@@AIWhale3 I have made videos on a lot of these! Yeah I'm not a fan of his I have to say. He's come out ahead at the expense of retail investors too many times.

[@AIWhale3]

I probably saw those videos on your channel then 😂

[@Mark_Kiwi]

great idea @AIWhale3

[@RandallAmes]

Great reporting Dave! Now relativity’s backlog was for launch, only? I didn’t hear anything about any of their other abilities. That would be a Considerable backlog for launch only. That’s like 10 times the launch backlog for rocket lab?. Perplexing

[@Oldman5261]

I used to be an aerospace engineer and had some involvement and knowledge of 3D metal printing. I know enough about the process to realize that it is not a magic solution for all aerospace structures 20 years ago. There are some things that it makes sense but not for others. One of the biggest issues for its use as a pressure vessel is that it produces a wavy uneven surface and can sag due to gravity when you try to build it up unsupported. Wavy surfaces at geometric discontinuities causes stress risers, which is bad for your design. Don’t think that the engineers within Relativity thought this approach through before proposing it.

[@daveginvesting]

@@Oldman5261 it does seem odd, you'd think they would have known that. Maybe they thought they had a fix but it didn't work out.

[@trevorp657]

I sse the Aeon R engine testing everyday in Stennis. This Engine is the real deal folks!!!

[@daveginvesting]

Yeah I don't doubt the engine!

[@RogerWilco1]

I'm an investor in this sector, including Stoke, SpaceX, and a lot of satelite startups (along with public companies like RKLB). Your analysis is good, and you should feel free to be critical of a company, especially one like this which is executing a pivot. I have access to Relativity shares and just decided to pass on buying because I prefer to wait until they have turned a corner and are demonstrating strong execution of their plan. Stoke, for instance, is doing exactly that, even though they have not launched yet (and I expect Stoke will have some failed launches.) So, don't hesitate to do analysis like this...as long as you are being prudent and fair, the bear case is FAR more valuable than Bull hype.

[@RogerWilco1]

And I just joined your channel... as an incentive to say "Please keep making videos like this", and because as someone who started watching a few weeks ago, I feel it is worth it.

[@Dustin_ds3000]

Great video on Relativity Space as always Dave. I wonder if it would be worth doing a video on Adam Spice's tenure at broadcom and analyzing how well the company did while he was there.

[@paulmalcolm8711]

Nice one Dave.

[@daveginvesting]

@@paulmalcolm8711 thanks!

[@vladimirhaviernik3568]

Terran R? More like Terran OS 😅😉👌

[@montyspearo]

Another VO or Astra in making.

[@B.I.Oneoffs]

Excellent. Nicely done David.

[@Beveelyhillbilly]

I think this is the first relativiy video i have seen. I know people who bought based on their engineering like pre error welding or somthing. Thyre. All in on that but reluctant on rklb for some reason

[@barryscott6222]

Relativity is Toast. it is just a question of how long it takes for that reality to sheet home.

[@44JohnDoe]

„In Cape Canaveral I think”. So he was not even sure about the location? What kind of ignorance it is.. or incompetence. I don’t trust people who have thaat gaps.

[@anthonycarpenter8650]

😎

[@stefano1844]

TLDR: They are fucked 😂😂

[@camonthecoast]

The backlog claims don’t stack up unless they bought into hype. I doubt that company will last. Feels like another Astra.

[@alvarosalazar23]

I don´t take Relativity seriously yet, they have accomplished nothing yet. I certainly don't take Chamath´s claims seriously, he is a better salesman than investor

[@terrya448]

I am on Rocket Lab side over Relativity because they have a better track record.

[@daveginvesting]

@@terrya448 agreed.

[@Beveelyhillbilly]

Vib

[@RandallAmes]

Trading volume on RKLB has way more than doubled in the last year, while during prior years it was essentially flat

[@TheoriginalTHX007]

❤ it when RKLB trolls the competition 😜

[@daveginvesting]

Well it seems clear it can be done, just only adds a small amount to the bottom line.