Is the Economy on the Brink of a Recession? | Let's Look at the Data!

The Economy isn't looking good and there's a lot of data to back it up. In this video we dive into what's influencing the economy and what the trends show for the next several years.
FFER: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FE...
Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates: www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Credit Card Debt: www.lendingtree.com/credit-ca...
Layoffs: layoffs.fyi/
Full vs Part Time: www.advisorperspectives.com/d....
Groceries: www.thestreet.com/economy/why...
Note: This is just my opinion (although we are looking at data) and I may be completely wrong. Look into these things and make an informed decision for yourself and for your future.
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[@jasxteo]

Please delve more into a longer video. I prefer to listen to a data analyst than those financial "gurus" on KZbin. Thank you.

[@cherylhills3227]

Definitely, the current economic instability is causing a lot of concern. With factors like trade tensions and fluctuating markets, it's hard to predict what's coming next.

[@christopherherbert2407]

the pandemic has only exacerbated things. It's led to disruptions in supply chains and forced many businesses to shut down temporarily or even permanently.

[@sebastiaanthijn7982]

And the ripple effects of these disruptions are felt worldwide. It's not just one country's problem; it affects everyone.

[@georgeearling905]

The massive government stimulus packages implemented to combat the pandemic's economic impact could have long-term consequences, like inflation.

[@V.stones]

Inflation is definitely a concern. It can erode people's purchasing power and make it harder for businesses to operate profitably.

[@ericbergman7546]

it's crucial to stay informed and be proactive in managing our finances during these uncertain times. Seeking advice from financial experts can really make a difference.

[@mosesnyper]

The full time vs part time graph really sells it, that double helix shape 😂

[@electropad]

I recently landed a job as a senior digital analyst and it was due to my storytelling abilities and communication skills not my technical ability. I think this proves that without you writing SQL and simply showing your ability to review data, just how important this skill is and how good you are at it.

[@devonrd]

How did you apply? How did you showcase your storytelling abilities?

[@electropad]

@@devonrd I've been a digital analyst for over 10 years so I was able to call upon many examples from previous years to explain scenarios I have been in where data storytelling and insights lead to big changes in business or helped inform important decisions.

[@icelerate8141]

Interesting how a senior economist like Paul Krugman is a lot more optimistic about the economy. I appreciate your analysis simply because you're not some partisan ideologue.

[@AlexTheAnalyst]

I don't have a ton of skin in the game - I just like data :)

[@jasxteo]

what surprised me is news kept saying the economy is strong. The feds are saying that. But via KZbin and social media I saw so many pp living in vans and losing jobs

[@AlexTheAnalyst]

When a large amount of anecdotal evidence goes against the data, listen to the anecdotes.

[@Isitjimmy]

I'm glad to see I'm not the only one feeling "gloom and doom"

[@crazydrifter13]

Everyone who says there are so many jobs in IT and there's such a shortage that they will take and train anyone is very far removed from the current reality. Its almost impossible for normal (Non ivy league etc) juniors to get into the field right now.

[@jhonatanandresjimeneztabar9948]

Great content here hope you can upload more videos like this 🎉

[@edydossantos]

Housing market is crazy also in Australia. The advent of home office made people sell their assets in places like NSW and Victoria and move to cheaper places, like Adelaide and Queensland. The prices just skyrocket out of the blue in these places. The immigration policy played also an important role. The newcomers in order to get a permanent or longer visa, need to move to "regional areas", and that created a pressure over the housing market: newcomers, new places needed, housing price rising.

[@MegaGreenLamp]

Really interesting, wouldn’t mind if you started posting more of these

[@andru-bu]

Love these kind of analytics, pls do more

[@sandz_storm]

Looking forward to a detailed video!

[@dolphin4337]

I really could tell this was starting to happen myself. Just getting into learning data analytics myself and glad to see a video reviewing actual data and how it reflects to real life is really interesting!

[@robertlee8519]

Yeah so we've been in a recession for a long time now for the vast majority of people. Retired boomers that have had stocks and homes the past 40 years are probably doing somewhat better

[@StevenPham2310]

Wow!! Thank you for giving us a full pov on the current state of the economy & beyond. Can't wait to see the full video about this topic!

[@joedejesus4603]

I completely agree

[@devonrd]

Really appreciate your effort in informing people and helping them prepare!

[@richflowfunflow]

I had that question seeking for answers for a while and you just answered it! “using one mortgage to leverage as a bigger mortgage, how will it turns out?” I was here for power bi 😂 but thank you so much.

[@Dxgreen]

I love videos like this! Homeowners like myself and future homeowners definitely need information like this to prepare. As s data analyst i know numbers never lie

[@SeattleDataGuy]

Looking forward to this!

[@AlexTheAnalyst]

It's been on my mind for the past few months, but the rise in no-downpayment loans was a big red flag. Had to make something.

[@WendyHLee]

Please dive in more on this topic. This is really important and a wake up call for me because this has been happening to my friends but somehow I kept on thinking the economy is going well. It really is time to save.

[@gunelmurad2399]

Love the flow in your analysis. Looking forward to hearing more about what we are about to face 🙏 May God Bless Everyone!

[@MattMike]

Oddly enough, I was taking a look at some of this data earlier this week and had similar thoughts. People are saying the economy is doing so well but the data simply does not support those claims when you really dig into it. The prophet Alex has spoken. I'd love to see a deeper dive into this from you.

[@michaelhirsch5199]

I loved the video. Please make a longer, deeper dive.

[@MyVibes369]

Thank you for this video. Please dive deeper into this. That would be awesome!

[@CommandantSpangler]

Love the video! I would love to see a longer video about the housing/rental market

[@iamff]

GREAT VIDEO!

[@alexrosen8762]

Superuseful tips 🙏 Subscribed!

[@cynthiaryu5628]

Finally, find insights and take necessary actions is the essence of data analyst!

[@michaelgibson4541]

I would like to see a VERY deep dive on this topic. I thought I was the only one seeing these trends. Thank you for creating this content

[@richannon3116]

Fantastic topic of discussion. More please! 🤙🏽

[@evelic]

Gotta love being a millenial. Those boomers really had it easy in comparisson.

[@jkmcdani]

Please make a longer video, Alex. Excellent, fact-based, forecast. Mahalo.

[@Charlay_Charlay]

i cant wait for this. I've been applying to several analyst roles in Austin and i cant get any luck. it might be because I'm a career changer but it is tough out there even for roles in my current field of logistics.

[@shiwaniification]

I like your analysis. Love to watch detailed videos on the housing market and coming recession.

[@joshi1q2w3e]

More videos like this please!

[@lizardleisureandlifestyle1285]

Spot on Alex!!! I been thinking the same for the past few months - another looming massive impact is A.I. - when companies (in certain industries) layoff because the same amount of work can be done by half (or less) their current staff using AI tools. Yes, please post more videos as you mention are possible.

[@ty_drizz2679]

In kenya today our financial budget 2024/2025 financial year has been read in the chamber of the parliment and next week is the voting. Cant call it coincidence but this came up the right time. Big up Alex always

[@lilpahedchix]

I would love to see more analysis videos like this, could be related to anything.. This is a good idea in this time today!

[@fpawluszmtg]

This was fantastic, thank you so much for making this video. You did a great job explaining the entire history, even to somebody who is not well versed in economic concepts. Great stuff!

[@sam02109]

Thank you so much Alex I prepared Upsc for 3 years and then moving towards data science, it will help to connect broad picture

[@tlhologelo]

This video was very enlightening and educational please make another longer video where you deep dive in to the topic about your forecast from the data perspective of the housing, loans and car market. Thank you.

[@franciscouribe2330]

Alex totally agree with you, if you have some more data to show or what are you doing to prepare for a possible depression should be really help full. Than you so much for your time.

[@JessikaDiazHerrera]

Hey Alex, very interesting analysis. I would love to see an extended version diving into the other data you mentioned. Thank you!

[@DS-li7go]

Love your stuff. I would love to see the hour long analysis of this subject.

[@TheBrendan777]

Yes please. Deep dive. Great video.

[@mjc91950]

Great presentation. Would love to see another video going deeper

[@samuelsackey2433]

I love this video. Dive in more. And teach us how to get and analyse this data

[@tevinwright5109]

Really great video. As someone who does financial analysis on my own I also do think the pop is coming! Too many signs

[@RonWeber2011]

Please dig in deeper!! Amazing content!!

[@angelamariameneses9110]

Hi Alex, thank you for sharing your point of view based on accurate data. I would to watch another video talking about housing market. Thank you.

[@francischen-mt5cd]

Very informative

[@yah3238]

This is awesome. Might need a video series with deep dives. I learned more here than listening to Wall Street everyday.

[@Charlay_Charlay]

thanks for telling the truth.

[@euniceduah4793]

I wanted to make this analysis for my dissertation, I couldn’t find appropriate data to use 😅. Well done Alex. Will be looking forward to something on exchange rates too if you don’t mind 😊

[@abdulloshohraufiy7392]

Hey Alex from Uzbekistan we still love you and support , can you make video with tech side of prediction and make creazy chat bar and other vizualize bro , have grate next few years bro

[@SuperMotoPhil]

More please

[@TynKiTan]

I really liked what you have said, and it is true to some extent. But you have missed a key point here. Feds are likely to start reducing the interest rates from September, again the money circulation in the market will see an uptrend and business will again start hiring full time and mortgage will be cheaper and things will improve.

[@faheem1980]

Would love a detailed video!

[@marvinduncan5832]

Please do that Alex! I love the style of these videos (stuff that is current events analysis). If I had one comment as a learning DA could you explain how/where you go to find your data? The thought process of why you decided to ask and answer the questions you did.

[@AlexTheAnalyst]

Appreciate it! And yes, I plan on making a video on where/how to find reliable data :)

[@usasianology]

​@@AlexTheAnalystI will be on the lookout for this video!

[@greggsplaylist]

I would like to see more of a deep dive.

[@gavinkingcome3732]

Hi Alex, really interesting video looking at the economy just now, thank you. I'm in the UK but all the same red flags here. If you were to put a more indepth video together I for one would be very interested! Many thanks.

[@MisterNumber6]

we have untold amount of potholes in west sussex which are left for a long time before they are repaired

[@mariemoraby3502]

Dive in more

[@muhammadalikhan5733]

I would honestly love to get a deeper dive into this, the data speaks volumes of the current state of the economy!

[@wanderlvst6801]

please make more

[@burtmacklin_007]

Deep dive and go further in another video!

[@oversharer]

11:00 When the analysis defines "full time vs pt time" as binary ">35hr or

[@AlexTheAnalyst]

That's true, but often those employees that go part time don't get healthcare as part of their work. In my opinion, that's still a sign companies are struggling if they're moving full time staff to part time.

[@Cfevry]

Tell me more!!!

[@RLWade2]

Teach us how to search for and analyze the data.

[@12ryuzacki]

Do that longer video.

[@huhuplay5981]

i'm not a doomsday prepper too, but i start saving since last year buy gold, not for investment but for stability, paper money would go down when inflation up

[@claytoncarroll2309]

Good

[@lecturesfromleeds614]

The impact of Brexit on the UK economy would make a good project!

[@sharifali1471]

I totally agree with you but sure hope you are Wrong

[@christinefreberg]

“I want to go to Bali! I want to go to France”! Hehe 😂

[@will__w]

Don't worry guys, NVDA produced chips will train LLMs that are gonna replace all the laid-off workers, SPY to 1000 (this is a joke, we're fucked)

[@hosamovic8518]

Please do get in depth

[@lovewatchingyoutube2467]

Will the US government come for you? If not then please make more videos like this 😉

[@bhautiktrambadia]

My advice buy gold.

[@Mister_Garibaldi]

Don't forget the brass and lead...may come in handier than the gold.

[@siliconandsteel]

Guys, if you have to worry about America, then the rest of us is fucked. Especially now, with spending bills and space for lowering interest rates, long-term outlook for US economy is very, very good. People having credit means people having money, trustworthy, honest people. It might be bumpy, stupid or even unnecessary what will come, but it will be dealt with.

[@os2171]

I’m applying for a data science position. Is the field going well in the next few years?

[@AlexTheAnalyst]

Tech will always be around, but the economy as a whole I think is going to suffer for a while. If you love it keep going. It can still be a great career path.