Is The Stock Market About To Collapse

[@HamishHodder]

Happy New Year! Back to weekly videos now :) The Howard Marks memo is linked in the description if you want to read it yourself.

[@artemonstrick]

Weekly stock crash prediction incoming

[@lukasvymetal2665]

it will be right, one day

[@ericericson9282]

You said it brother...

[@AegonM]

@@lukasvymetal2665 Even broken clock is right twice a day

[@Aaayyyeeee214]

Eh, give it 2-3 years, you'll see a crash within this cycle. Best bet is to have cash on hand or keep your money in anti inflationary stuff. Buffet exited the market, holding a record amount of cash. The credit borrowing (as well as default) amount muricans are at, is at an all time high. Also, the scarily similar current patterns on the overall market chart when you zoom out from years to decades to the 2007-2008 crash and even the great depression. The now slightly decreasing or stagnating housing prices (in Florida, no one is buying homes that have dropped as much as 20-30% from their initial listed selling price). And everything listed in this video. Not to mention if trump actually implements what he said he would, it would put upwards pressure on price with no stated plan to balance that pressure on the consumer side. Mass deportation, sweeping tariffs, union busting, pro merger/monopoly are all pro owner/producer with not a single policy to balance it on the consumer side. Mass deportation is going to put upwards pressure on prices, so will tariffs. Mergers will make it so there's no incentive to not price gouge as much as the consumer can afford due to no other choice on the consumer side, the only reason a monopoly wouldn't is out of the kindness of their hearts. All I'll say is, better safe than sorry.

[@maylia3132]

@@lukasvymetal2665keep betting on 19 on roulette. ittl be right once

[@ttrjw]

Price/Earnings ratios are overcooked but trying to time the market is a mug's game.

[@mikerodent3164]

A certain "Warren Buffett" (made-up name?) writes to me, from somewhere obscure in Nebraska, assuring me that he's not "timing" anything, but that he "simply can't find anything worth buying right now" (!) so has a third of his "wealth" (such as it may be) in T-bills right now. Rather disingenuous, if I may say so, "Warren" (if that really is your name!).

[@kylelarson5074]

when you can take huge profits and park them in 5% bonds who needs to time anything?

[@jamiemiller6156]

The overall P/E is high, but if you look at a majority of the market, things are not insane. It is a relatively small portion of the market that is a bit nuts, but even then, most of those high P/E companies are making money and growing like crazy.

[@Marco-qt5nv]

market growth is high aswell and it might be going up even further

[@kylelarson5074]

@ and the moment earnings forecasts start to get sandbagged valuations crash 20%

[@benjamindover4337]

These companies don't pay dividends so it really doesn't matter how good their business is. All that matters is if you can find someone dumber than you to sell the stock to.

[@vladislavgorshkov737]

Berkshire Hathaway for example - never paid dividends. However, the stock price of Class A shares went from 20k per share in 1990s to 700k now - 3,500 % capital appreciation

[@drexelspivey872]

You have 0 understanding of the stock market do you?

[@benjamindover4337]

@drexelspivey872 no, you

[@Faildude009]

welcome back Hamish and Happy new year. Hope you dont get sick too much this year

[@HamishHodder]

thank you! 2025 will be the year of good health 😆

[@NachoNov90]

The thing is, if this is a bubble just about to burst, this must be the most anticipated and covered bubble in history. I mean it's been for more than 2 years that I've been reading and watching this kinds of warnings. However it's true that mass media is not specially talking about this, and also nowadays information and media like KZbin and social networks provide such a quantity of content and such decentralized (as this vid for instance) that my first statement could be biased by that. The fact is, the correction will come, as naturally as leaves fall due to gravity. Despite all, I've been receiving warnings from a lot of different sources to the point that if the market collapses I won't be surprised. But boy I'm hell of invested by now, I hope it's not as hard as 01 or 08... Or the combination of both.

[@Daniel7evens]

Once they start dragging people out by the hair, tides will shift in a bad way…

[@David_Lloyd-Jones]

@@Daniel7evens And vice versa.

[@Daniel7evens]

@@David_Lloyd-Jones reverse

[@MurderMostFowl]

Yes, I think you’re just more aware now. I definitely remember some boggle heads and early Mötley fool people talking about a coming crash back in the day. I was young enough that I didn’t do anything differently and just dollar cost averaged my way upward…

[@MarathonKevin]

Time in the market beats timing the market. If a 50% market drop scares you, you seriously need to reevaluate your portfolio's asset allocation

[@visceralcinema]

Yuppers. Called "hedging" and using the "sharpe ratio"!

[@nonexistent5030]

Howard Mark's: "Everyone's asking me if we're in a bubble. I don't think so,but markets aren't cheap. Everyone else: Howard Mark's says we're in a bubble!!!

[@RyanStronach]

What's the title of the memo again?

[@David_Lloyd-Jones]

Superb video analogy at the opening!

[@ishanarora5764]

Brilliant stuff mate👍👍

[@maximayr9297]

Forward pe ratios always sound cool, but what if that is also way too optimistic? Then Nvidia doesnt trade at 30 but rather at a 50 or 60 pe next year

[@HamishHodder]

agreed. forward earnings work until they don't

[@Nick_Henri]

The PE ratio isn't a great predictor of upcoming stock market direction but when at extremes the CAPE can often provide a pretty good indication of what's to come. It's currently sitting at it's 3rd highest point ever, suggesting the market is incredibly expensive. The market doesn't typically reach this point without a pretty nasty correction not too long after. Sure, the market might keep going for a while longer, but if history suggests average returns over the coming decade will be +/-2% and that there's a very high likelihood of a painful correction around the corner, why take the risk. Especially if there are low risk options returning 3-4%.

[@chimbuzi1]

is there divergence between main street and wall street is it getting wider ?

[@gordongekko2781]

CORRECTION: There is a group of clients saying "no price is too high". That group is all of the megacap tech companies that have been buying up Nvidia GPU's. These companies are literally paying the same price as a brand new car for each chip they purchase. That isn't going to last much longer. And that buying frenzy is the only thing propping up the entire AI rally at this stage.

[@John-tp5gc]

Been hearing this since 2008.

[@joschkahurst]

Dr. Howard Marks is full of wisdom

[@schmoofadoop]

i really enjoyed this one, thanks! also, may i ask your mic? SM58? your vocal sounds great, so many people invest in a SM7B and don't set things up properly, sounding lousy... whatever you're signal chain is audio wise, it sounds great man

[@dr.naressurasith7115]

welcome back, don't forget to come and share your useful ideas, we are waiting for.

[@maximayr9297]

I took this year to imvest in other countries. I dont think there will be a collapse this year, but the risk is too high to stay invested in the us

[@mikerodent3164]

This is sensible. But when America sneezes... In reality it's difficult to know whether a bubble centred on a handful of superhuge tech stocks will, when it bursts, spread to other stock classes, either in the US or elsewhere. Panic is the final (5th) stage of a bubble: historically it has tended to be contagious, far beyond anything rationality can explain.

[@maximayr9297]

@mikerodent3164 I own small caps that have ober 80% earnings outside the US. If I want to minimize us risk, I wanna do it right

If there’s a collapse how do you know it won’t affect other countries?

[@DillonNagar]

Great warning

[@AFC0712]

even a broken clock is right twice a day

[@grevberg]

Tesla is an extreme example.

[@dat_boii]

It's only a 2% ROI over 10 years if you don't buy the dips/DCA. If I'd merely held my Tesla shares from 4 years ago I'd probably be up about 8%. Instead I'm up 100% because I used the low points as buying opportunities to load up on more.

[@DavidSmith-do6ji]

Always good to see you Hamish, David, UK 👍🏼.

[@HamishHodder]

thanks David!

[@megguardio5676]

This is the same video threat from 2022, 2023, 2024…. Yeah it’s going to happen…. Sometime. Be ready and have cash to invest on the bottom upswing…..simple.

[@vladislavgorshkov737]

actually it was about to happen in 2020s when USA saved banking financing sector with trillions and boosted spending among people

[@whatsup3519]

How to make qualitative analysis. Pls explore more about this or expectinga reply

[@Ric442]

If this is the case why is buffet and so many other billionaires going into cash, this is the time to hedge. This is the biggest everything bubble the world has ever seen, and the most in debt, this time really is different.

[@TimonWeller-o7z]

Always make sure to factor in U.S. dollar currency debasement into your formulas, when you do you will see quality global stocks are actually not as expensive as you think. If you value stocks in $GOLD, $SILVER or $BTC you will also see that they are getting cheaper and cheaper during this time. Think about it.

[@lewis809]

I definitely agree about the PE from an investors perspective, however I actually think that a lot of what happens is fund managers looking for ‘safe’ places to put their clients money. They will happily buy an nvidia at PE of 30 if it meets ESG criteria, looks like it’s increasing earnings and everyone else is doing it to! Although as investors we know this is not the right way to think about a PE, it’s safe to say I can understand why certain companies will trade at higher PE’s than justified.

[@mu5hshro0m]

Great vid. Let’s cook that bubble a bit more. Anecdotally only 15% of my friends are risk on in market. Ways to go according to this young man

[@HamishHodder]

thanks for watching!

[@delfimoliveira8883]

The Buffet Indicator is now 208 of GDP and the private debt is at 2007 levels The markets will deflate or burst and the investors are in magical thinking mode

[@charleshart5563]

Yield curve when it uninverted we shall see.

[@investingwiththefrenchy2674]

I believe there is a spelling mistake in your title.

[@HamishHodder]

oops, thanks 😎

[@DonTrades1031]

No bullshit this video changed my life and I just watched it

[@AusxStylez]

Good to see a fresh vid Hamish. Strange question… but how do you get your “invite” to the berkshire meeting after owning a share?

[@HamishHodder]

thank you! there's a form on the Berkshire website you can fill out to receive your pass or you can collect a pass physically at the venue the day before.

[@tomfitz1546]

This is how i know we are about to moon again

[@tecomaman]

If you bought a stock too high ,sell it

[@rodneydowd4739]

So what are you saying?

[@riley3269]

That there are signs of a bubble but no one can predict these things very accurately

[@KozyTapes]

Sure hope you got the express written consent of Oaktree to use his podcast

[@hkbahia]

If people in the market for long game then if it crashes then even better cus you buy things at a discount!

[@Drone-h2i]

Everything can be a bubble, even the price of gold.

[@tHebUm18]

Guess we'll see what happens longer term, but I recently anti-timed the market. Mid-December I decided to invest a good deal of money I'd had sitting on the sidelines (half to invest long term decade+, half I won't need for at least 3 years) in some index funds. Immediately the S&P lost 3% in a single day and has dropped another 1% since. Can't know the future, but RIP losing over a half a year of long term S&P performance in under a month.

[@maackiaamurensis5703]

You are screwed both ways. By inflation and the risk of stocks crashing.

[@plica06]

I was wondering where the hell is that Aussie Hamish Macbeth gone?! Good to see you back mate!

[@danielkanyo9417]

Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves. - Peter Lynch

[@whereareyourshorts]

I just commented on the last video to where are your videos !!!!!

[@HamishHodder]

im back!

[@anthony6841]

For more than a year your videos are about the market crashing

[@danielbarton8247]

This sounds EXACTLY like every Tesla stock investor. tO tHe MoOn DiAmOnD hAnDs! Derp! $800 price target PE of 300! No price too high!

[@u2fkeys665]

SELL!!

[@m4758406]

us-stocks are not "the market" so this video is worthless!? Are Crashes Overstated? Yes, stock market crashes are often overstated, particularly through media and social networks. The average exaggeration percentage of 34% suggests that the severity of crashes is frequently dramatized beyond their actual impact. However, in certain cases, such as systemic crises, the portrayal is closer to reality. Investors should approach crash reports critically and focus on long-term perspectives, as markets often demonstrate greater resilience than is commonly depicted.

[@chnrbk1]

Big crash tomorrow, chances 70%. Mostly the quantum like RGTI and technology stocks . Play safe

[@HansonLaser]

They want you out. So you'll get back in

[@paulhurst4445]

So basically you say that stocks are like fads or high fashion. Like Beanie Babies or Fidget Spinners. That would make Elon Musk the Karl Lagerfeld of electric cars and space junk.

[@xerogue]

“Is the stock market Is about to collapse”

[@HamishHodder]

I'm a little rusty, haven't done this in a while... 😆

[@sam.lipchutz]

If I had a dime for every time I’ve heard that I could retire today. Even if it does crash it’ll rise up twice as high within a few years.

[@sgtdrake]

​@@HamishHodderNever gonna live it down now. That guy said it in the comments.😂

[@Ferdinand208]

All your base is belong to us

[@zachzeurcher6450]

Fear index is high. Euphoria isn't there. We still have more to go.

[@Nur45382]

the music is stupid

[@cirodirosa6752]

DCA

[@charlestempest3474]

Back in the late summer of 1929, a certain Wall Street broker started getting tips from the shoe shine boy, after paying the lad, he went back to his office and sold nearly all his stocks; the S & P fell that Sept, beginning the depressed 1930's. I personally don't believe we are there yet, if only for the believers in Trump et al. But, if the US market goes up, appreciably, these first 2025 two quarters...it's up to you to decide...

[@financeguy8444]

What is the average P/E in your portfolio? Don't know? Find out it's not hard. Don't be a victim.

[@ZorakWars]

That AI reading of investopedia articles is very annoying.

[@plica06]

I for one sincerely hope those advanced next generation cyborgs are getting their fair share of royalties for all their efforts.

[@HamishHodder]

not AI, Howard Marks records the audio version of his memos :)

[@HamishHodder]

not AI, Howard Marks records the audio version of his memos :)

[@vongillan]

The opposite of everything in this video is truth

[@tancreddehauteville764]

The daily BS.

[@axltothemaxl5368]

Ditch the awkward AI reader, total turn off

[@MurderMostFowl]

And buy leap puts for magnificent 7 stocks… Tesla in particular is the weakest of them all in PE, margins and anticipated growth.

[@BB-cr9ry]

No bubble, only up

[@robstone9628]

AI voice reading quotes is very obnoxious

[@stevemcewin8852]

Is Bitcoin's P/E too high

[@arinobody3890]

Full of

[@oliversmith7820]

👍

[@richardf76]

Stocks are not really going up. The value of money is going down exponentially until the US dollar becomes worthless. If you know the dollar is going to be worth close to nothing in 5 or 10 years but some of these stocks should still be around then it makes sense to trade dollars for overpriced stocks. This is the end of the 80-100 year long term debt cycle. Asset prices don’t crash down, they melt up. Currency is what becomes worthless. The US dollar is only valuable as a medium of exchange now and not a store of value.

[@chesterstanley8487]

Thank you Lord Jesus for the gift of life and blessings to me and my family $14,120.47 weekly profit Our lord Jesus have lifted up my Life!!!🙏❤️❤️

[@UkpeneEmma]

I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??

[@chesterstanley8487]

Elizabeth stark

[@kathyfrederick7172]

Same, I met Elizabeth stark last year for the first time at a conference in Wilshire, after then my Life has changed for good.God bless Elizabeth stark

[@sarahmark7682]

Though I started with as low as $5,000 actually because it was my tirst time and it Was successful, She's is a great personality in the state

[@chesterstanley8487]

+123

[@cnmike1988]

Garbage perm bear channel making people missing out on gains

[@dzmach74]

Did you even watch the full video?

[@cnmike1988]

@ same shit for years

[@Louis-ph3sy]

@@cnmike1988are you only optimistic?

[@cnmike1988]

@@Louis-ph3sy 10xed my money just in qqq and seeing people crying wolf on the sideline for a decade lmfao