Is Tom Dwan IMMUNE to Phil Hellmuth’s White Magic?

[@PhilGalfond]

Mindset is one of the biggest levers to your success. My 44-page ebook on improving your mindset is entirely free for you all: www.philgalfond.com/mindset-yt

[@asanaliamantay3441]

I kinda liked the Image of Phil Galfond on HSP, I dunno why they kicked him out of the show..

[@joeshab123]

This is the best poker content on YT, I swear. Most of the time when you watch hand analysis videos you don't really learn THAT much. Little tidbits here and there of course. But when I watch one of your videos I feel like I learn some whole new, really interesting thing. Thanks for posting these kinds of videos, they're fantastic.

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you SO MUCH because that’s exactly what I try so hard to do with these videos. I know more people watch hand reviews than talking head concept videos, but they are a challenge to interject good strategy in while keeping a viewer’s attention. I’ve done the best I can with that balance and it’s very nice to hear it’s working for you!

[@joeshab123]

@@PhilGalfond Thank you for making these videos, we really appreciate it! I don't remember, have you done much poker commentary? I think you'd be excellent at it but I can't recall if I've heard you do any.

[@justinkauffman731]

Better than Pudge Heffelfinger's 1/3 NL shorts (content) via a ProCam at Cherokee? Hardly.

[@markjodonohue]

"Take up to 4 days" has to be low-key one of Phil Laak's funniest lines

[@PaperPlateParody]

"I know you like to be entertained, but I want to teach you something as well." The part where we are getting taught IS the entertainment. Nice video!

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you ❤

[@loveobd628]

"Knew he started with nothing" gets in with 9 7 offsuit 😂

[@wispa1a]

It's funny because when he loses with fish food he blames whoever for calling with the nuts. "Why would you call with a Q high flush dummy?"

[@SorryRumHam]

The Phil Helmuth anthem as usual. Impervious to his shit show hand but claims everyone else is shit. He must forget we can see his hand too. Even all that aside, Phil only beats a stone cold bluff yet acts as if his hero call was correct.

[@buckhorn3503]

​​​@@LavocatdudiablefranceYou still need a better hand than 9 7o, even from the BU against young aggro Dwan. It's crushed by all of Dwans 4 betting range, even hands that Dwan 4 bet bluffs with back then are crushing 9 7 o. If Dwan turns his hand face up and shows Phil preflop, Phil has to fold and 10 Js was probably the bottom of Dwans 4 betting range. Because he didnt 3 bet fold he ended up turning a 5k loss into over 100k loss calling down with bottom pair. His post flop decisions were probably correct and he played it perfectly for having 9 7 o given the flush draw out there that bricked. But that's why you don't call 4 bets with 9 7o because you end up with bottom pair and having to call off against an aggro like Dwan. That's like the first lesson anyone learns when learning what hands to play preflop, is that junk like 9 7 o flops bottom and mid pairs with shitty kickers and you end up in shitty spots like this against aggro players. His preflop decision should have been fold and wait for a better hand and should never have been in that situation. Him and Dwan had history leading up to this and it was 100% ego play here from Phil. He was right about Dwan 4 betting light but was so wrapped up in his ego he forgot to realize that Dwans light 4 bet is still crushing 9 7o.

[@lorenacarrera246]

Exactly what I thought. Why didn’t you raise all in then ?

[@lorenacarrera246]

If you knew he has nothing why are you calling with nothing ? Raise or fold you fool. He doesn’t have the stones to be in these games. Guy has money & plays like it’s his rent money

[@bryantjones2730]

Fun analysis! The context of how people played then vs. now is super important. You kind of felt that helmuth was looking for his “hold on and call down” moment with Durr because of Durr’s rep. Phils comment at the end is funny and indicative of why he’s not a great deep cash player. “I know you started with nothing.” Sick, but it’s way more important to know his range on the river when he overbet shoves for a trillion bbs. Two legends. Thanks Phil! I love the vids and content, hope you keep cranking and it starts picking up steam next year!!

[@jackolini]

I think when he said "I knew you started with nothing", he meant he didn't have what was usually 4 bet back in the day (TT-AA, AK, maybe AQs). Dwan was a new crop of player that had a wider range of 4 bets and was much more aggressive. My guess is Hellmuth was expecting him to either turn over TT, QQ or nothing on the river. But Dwan's value hands don't really make sense given Tom checked the flop. Sure, Dwan could be tricky with those hands but I'm sure the majority of the time he bets those hands on the flop given the board texture. I'm guessing that is what made Hellmuth call on the river, I'm not sure he even thought Dwan could have just a Tx type of hand.

[@buckhorn3503]

​@jackolini Ya really back then no one was 4 betting any hands with a 10 other than pocket 10s. Not even A 10s was 4 bet back then.

[@bryantjones2730]

@@jackolini I think you’re applying modern range/solver preflop logic to the thinking back then that just wasn’t happening. These guys definitely had a better concept of “range” than anyone else, but feel played a lot more into decision making around when to bluff or play aggressive at an opponent. Dwan’s line clearly didn’t make sense to Phil, but I think he believed dwan’s 4bet could’ve been an “any 2” 4 bet preflop because of dwan’s rep (which we’ve seen him do back then tbh-truly any 2 sometimes). So I think he though 10x could’ve been in Tom’s range, but I think he also thought Tom could have a ton of straight trash too that we’d never consider a 4 bet today (offsuit low cards). So if you put the world of bluffs into Tom’s range on river, it’s a call even against a river overbet shove. Question is, does he have the world of bluffs? I doubt it. Obviously he had some though. Tough tough opponent to play against at the time, and Phil seemed a little out of his depth. A good comparison is the Ivey hand where he considers calling Dwan’s river bluff with A6 (pair of 6s). I think he had a much better handle on the idea of Tom’s range back then, even if he made the wrong decision and folded the winner/hero call hand.

[@jackolini]

@@bryantjones2730 All good points. Dwan was capable of bluffing with nothing against Hellmuth but I can't get away from the check on the flop and the board was not a good candidate for bluffing. That hits Hellmuth's 3 bet range pretty hard (at least when he isn't calling with 97o). I'd wager when Tom shoves on the river, he has a pretty strong hand most of the time. As for the Ivey hand, I think that was purely a physical tell. There are live players like Johnny Chan who would get crushed online but live they are just great at reading people. I think Ivey knew Tom didn't have what he was repping but his only problem was his hand was really weak. He can't call and have Tom turn over like T9 or some other weak hand that still beats him.

[@GokuTheSuperSaiyan1]

You were talking about 3-betting ranges. In GTO land, hellmuth has a slightly polarised range when he 3-bets Elezra from the BTN. Dwan is supposed to 4-bet or fold, and he does 4-bet. It's not the best hand to 4-bet bluff with in GTO but nonetheless he does it. Thats about all i know since i havent studied postflop. But what you said about a merged range vs polarised range. Ive heard that if youre against someone who has a polarized range, you have good eqiity to call/flat against them in many situations. I havent seen the calculations for it but makes some sense

[@fredrikzels2637]

I remember this hand and I remember why Tom became one of my favorite players of the game.

[@bobbywhite1645]

Ah yes, the world famous "take up to 4 days" hand. This is what we all should always be saying anytime we're at the tables and someone apologizes for taking too long to act. Its one of the all time best poker memes. Its a total classic.

[@Mrperson662]

I like what you said about Tom’s check on the flop. People think he was always a maniac but he was very ahead of the curve on when to stop bluffing and when betting would rarely get a call from worse

[@WarmDeck]

Doyle was so cold; I love that reply to Laak telling Hellmuth it’s okay to tank in this spot… “This time.”

[@SagostundenSvenska]

My read is this. Listen to the tonality Phil uses when he says "How much?" Very high pitch, light voice like its nothing. Whatever is fine. Thats a sign of weakness that even alot of pros fail to spot.

[@antoine6469]

Hi Phil, nice review from a old fashion hand. Dont't you think than, at the flop, by telling to the dealer "he checked" as if he was ready to launch a bullet, Hellmuth made a great speechplay to get a check from Dwan ? I'm not sure Tom always check if Hellmuth doesn't make his speech play. After the check-check flop it's value town to stack a pair! I don't think tom bet without improvement at the turn, do you?

[@stevenwalker9013]

I remember watching these back in the day. It was so obvious Tom had Phil on tilt for basically a few years. Lol. He would look Tom up with nothing and fold winners. I remember being kinda embarrassed for him, this is when all the Phil is great at tourneys but doesn’t belong in the high stakes cash talk started. Tom was changing how these games were played and cashed in

[@nex8000]

Pretty sure phil helmuth was a net winner on poker after dark. And was about break even on high stakes poker. He definitely belongs in the games. Obviously Tom Dwan crushed both. But saying hellmuth doesn't belong there is a bit absurd. I mean dnegs lost like 2 million on high stakes poker and is a net loser on poker after dark I believe. I think he was literally the all time biggest loser. So does he not belong on this show too since he lost so much on televised high stakes cash games? Tom didn't have phil on tilt. Phil had phil on tilt. He's just a super emotional guy, with very little control.

[@stevenwalker9013]

@@nex8000 helmuth wasn’t a winner on either the big game or poker after dark. Go look up the numbers. I know the big game numbers are out there still. Not sure about after dark

[@nex8000]

@@stevenwalker9013 On poker after dark helmuth had the 2nd most hours (lost to dwan) and had a positive bb/hr of 1.5. Meaning he had one of the largest sample sizes on the show, and was a winner. Ivey won less the phil helmuth, does he not belong on high stakes poker programs? While I agree he was a massive loser on the big game. If you watch the spots he lost in, they were insane spots. Some of them were less than 1% chance of happening and still managed to lose. Even if we were to grant that. of the 3 big poker shows, he was a winner on 2. Guess who also lost big on the big game. Doyle brunson and esfandiari. Should they not be on high stakes poker games too? Also you never answer about negreanu. Negreanu lost 2 MILLION on 1 show. And barely broke even on the big game. Proceeded to lose money on the poker after dark. Should he not be on??? He lost WAY more than hellmuth on these tv shows. It's not even close. I just think its heavy handed to say he doesn't belong on these shows. There are players that have lost way more. And hellmuth has won on 2 of them. Maybe we can make an argument it doesn't look good for poker since he is so emotional. But also on the other end of the token, he draws in viewers....

[@stevenwalker9013]

@@nex8000 I never said he didn’t belong. Reading is key. I said that’s when the talk started of everyone saying it. I don’t care where he plays and wins or loses.

[@nex8000]

"this is when all the Phil is great at tourneys but doesn’t belong in the high stakes cash talk started" I did read. But this is unintelligible. This reads as phil is great at tourneys, but doesn't belong in high stakes cash. What does "I said that’s when the talk started of everyone saying it" even mean. The talk started of everyone (who) saying what??? Also, if you had such an issue with my interpretation, why didn't you say I misunderstood what you were saying earlier. It just sounds like you are back peddling now that you realized a large number of the top players that you probably love have actually gotten rolled on the live cash games on TV. Did you know Phil Ivey is also one of the largest losers in TV poker? He's lost more than Hellmuth according to most poker trackers!

[@wamblydelight]

I was told that even though you can be the best at something doesn’t mean you know how to teach it. I have always looked up to you Galfond, and you my friend are a great teacher. Idk if it’s just me but the way you break hands down makes so much sense to me. You have always been a wizard, thank you for all your videos!

[@lauriemackenzie1833]

Would love your analysis of Tom Dwan's bluff on HSP vs Greenstein and Peter Eastgate. The hand where Eastgate fold trip 2's I think.

[@ryanphillips8631]

Fantastic video, I really liked the flow of the video, when you provided your thoughts compared to showing the viewer what happened during the hand. The ending was really cool how you concluded your thoughts and then provided about 50 seconds of footage with the viewer getting to take the information you provided and then make a decision of what we'd do in Phil's shoes.

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you so much for the detailed compliment. It’s helpful when making future vids!

[@frenchdna3727]

@@PhilGalfondtotally +1 what ryan said. The flow and editing of this video was impeccable, top tier content. More please!

[@mattymcsplatty5440]

@@PhilGalfond yeah I 2nd that motion

[@coreyhuggins5785]

i think the word you were looking for is a linear 3bet range, meaning only the best x% of hands, merged ranges are capped to an extent (like a calling range typically)

[@evilhawk1226]

Your YT videos are extremly high value, even more so as they are free videos. Very digestable indepth analysis of key concepts that most players will be able to grasp. Thank you!

[@MrAgmoore]

Wow. This hand was way deeper than I realized. I need to study a polarized betting chart.

[@dagreco]

Hey Phil, I think you meant linear (from bottom up) instead of merged. Merged means weighted towards strong but not nutted hands, whereas linear is top-heavy, which is more weighted towards very strong holdings.

[@liandecastro6816]

Great hand analysis. If you were in Tom's shoes, would you be worried that @27k OTT would make Helmuth fold? His range after the flop check could include a lot of air, especially if he thought that Helmuth could reraise light and call Dwan light, in position, preflop

[@jaysmith3121]

You shouldn't worry about not getting called when value betting. You will miss a lot of value when your opponent has a medium strength hand they don't want to fold.

[@evadecaptcha]

The point of going polar, especially looking more air heavy after checking the flop, is to make it possible for marginal hands (bluff catchers) to call. As somebody else pointed out, you want to get value when you have strong hands - the most important thing is to make sure worse hands can call your bet (if it's a value bet), which they can in this case. Also, polarizing to get bluff catchers to call is going to work a lot more often for Durrrr, because of his image. He needs to do this to make use of and get value from his aggressive bluffing, and to make his bluffs more scary (ie, important for balance), so it's not just about this hand, but balancing his other hands. For example, he make take this exact line with AK, and calling is going to be a difficult decision when he can show up here with JT.

[@jonatan7112]

This was an awesome video. Love the editing, especially in the end with letting the viewer watch how everything unfold. Thank you!

[@timcarter817]

Galfond is so incredibly talented in breaking down hands for not just really in-depth players but also to people that are still learning the game. I have been coaching my wife for a couple of years now and she actually sent this video to me with the question “do you think the narrator is right?”. I chuckled and said “yes, Phil Galfond is very correct and btw he is one of the best poker players in the world for the last 10-12 years and he is arguably the best PLO player maybe in the history of the game”. Her reply: “So is he related to Farah”? God bless my wife, but it was really funny to me and made me realize that with all of the people out there that are “famous”, she was more impressed that Farah was your wife and nothing I said afterward about why you are so good at PLO (she knows and has watched me play a lot of PLO) and I said as much to her and her reply was “so he’s married to Farah?” Lmao women: never change bc we adore you, and Phil: Met you a few times years ago and I’ll personally vouch to anyone on here that he might be even more of a nice guy in person. He’s a rare breed where you can lose money to him yet still like the guy. Happy New Year to you, Farah, offspring. Thanks again for all u do in the community and beyond

[@RonnieJamesOsbourne]

"Nice hand, buddy? Where's my "blow-up?" -Joe Stapleton

[@GrapplingwithPhysics]

I think it would be cool to have a similar video but hide one of the players hole cards until the showdown.

[@brettblaster]

Legend, solid editing too

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you! 😊

[@Hepmaster]

Good video, didn’t even realise there was a term for what I was doing.

[@stevenjacobson8177]

Phil your videos are awesome. I learn and I understand. So very valuable. Sincere Thank 🙏🏼 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[@PhilGalfond]

You’re very welcome!

[@UberFubar75]

Always seem to learn something from these mate. Thanks again 😎

[@camaleonsacor1618]

Only real problem here for FH is having 97o. Then postflop for me is fine against Dwan in that time for sure

[@dominictang9328]

Galfond's description of a merged range is what I thought was a linear range. I'm not saying he's wrong (Jez, it's Phil Galfond).... but can anyone explain????

[@GokuTheSuperSaiyan1]

A merged range and linear range mean the same thing. Merged range is more old terminology. Both terms mean that your range contains strong hands, medium strength hands and weak/bluff hands. I like the term "merged" because it feels like a verb. Im merging my range when I bet 33% on the turn, because I could be doing this with a large variety of hands and everything in between

[@SmokeRingsPipeDreams]

Great video! Thumbs up!

[@modeob88]

merge? i thought that was a linear 3bet range (the first one)

[@patdearth6320]

Great analysis! Entertained and learning 😂 I wonder if Tom spotted some weakness when it goes check/check on the flop.

[@jameswill9527]

No one talks about stack size time at the table and showdown winning hands.

[@guanaco103]

Another informative, well made video, thanks PG !! On another topic would you go on Game of Gold ? Hear me out an all Phil team, Ivey, Hellmuth, Laak and your self ? I think that would be one of the most interesting teams ever made !

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you! I was a big fan of the first season and I’d probably go on it if invited.

[@TGoat123]

"Jack Ten, I knew you started with nothing." Priceless.

[@Ssantsup]

Still can't believe why you don't have more subs Phil! Content is always top notch! :)

[@PhilGalfond]

Slow and steady 😃

[@Ssantsup]

Yeah, Slow and steady wins the race or like we say in Finland: ''Kuka alussa hosuu, lopussa väsyy''@@PhilGalfond

[@birdinflight3861]

Dwan’s face after the hand looked like he just climbed out of a dark hole into the sun

[@jondorsey1715]

For anyone new to poker or newish in the past 10 years. If you wanna know how good galfond is, tom dwan offered a heads up challenge with a 3:1 side bet 500k to his 1.5m to any one heads up at whatever stakes EXCEPT Phil galfond. Speaks volumes of the info we get for free

[@paulg6274]

yes galfond was great but that was more because him and Tom were poker friends and shared alot of info with eachother

[@pjero2005]

How good is Jungle?

[@jondorsey1715]

@@pjero2005 jungles one of the best lol

[@maxhammer-v9x]

Have you been hitting the gym lately?

[@PhilGalfond]

On and off 😁

[@RuneJeppesen]

lol - Tom didn't blink until he called. watch how he react after he called

[@Pokerfarhang]

I get Phil hellmuth but I think you can't CALL a 4bet preflop out of position with 97o that is behind even Dwans weakest bluffs, if he had a strong read he should have done what Ivey did against Lex Veldhuis with 52

[@WorldsPhattestMan]

Tom balanced with his "sore eyes" act. Did it when he had it vs Phil H., did it when he did not have it vs Phil Ivey 😁

[@dan22482]

"I knew he started with nothing" - guy who just called a cold 4 bet with 97o

[@TheRed95Bull]

Knew he started with nothing, so i have to call with more nothing😂

[@Janet_Airlines802]

I love how Phil chastised him for playing J10 when he played 97 off. Phil played it so poorly, with an awful call at the end.

[@nicholas7525]

Don't you mean Dwan is 4! a linear range?

[@RCTricking]

Don’t worry Phil- sick exploits are definitely entertaining when you land them 😎🙏🏻

[@lostnumber08]

Hellmuth is the most fun player to watch. He’s a gracious winner, but an absolute baby when he’s loosing.

[@samuraijack1371]

Elezra rubbing it in in case phill didn’t see “three tens”

[@Janet_Airlines802]

Tom really played it well.

[@justinkauffman731]

H almost completed the entire scenario as an adult.

[@brianwest1501]

Why bet 27600? Make it ready on the dealer and bet an even amount. DER!!

[@butcho7492]

Cool breakdown, Phil.

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you! 😊

[@r.w.221]

The problem for Phil against Tom Dwan was that he was simply not understanding Tom‘s Game at all and his ego did the rest. Although PH is world class he usually does this to himself as he takes everything personal…. This Hand would Never happen today as Phil now knows that Tom is still arround after five years…

[@mmfb88]

I believe Phil said “let's see if you’re even around in 10 years” back in 2007. Hilarious because if it were not for endorsements / sponsorships Phil would never last 10 years in cash games.

[@AAlexmic]

When an mtt player gets smacked by reversed implied odds

[@berdyderg900]

Helmuth has to be down lifetime at the table I assume and only his endorsements keep him in the game at this point

[@skillfuldabest]

he's probably very +EV in tournaments too

[@mmfb88]

That’s true for a lot of the old heads.. negreanu, matusow, helmuth etc

[@andyrobson8903]

Phil is a flattrack bully. Excellent against amateurs, average against premium players.

[@joegroves4325]

c'mon guys, subscribe so we can get Phil to 69,420 subscribers

[@Janet_Airlines802]

Phil is a great tournament player, but a cash game donkey.

[@timdawn705]

Maybe do an analysis on Hellmuths cap-collection next?

[@brianwest1501]

JTs is a pretty good hand? Really??

[@Shinkuro4]

Yes, it has great playability and board coverage, being able to make two pairs, trips, straights and flushes, and it isn't dominated as often as a hand like Q5 or K4 would be, making it a nice hand to extract value in some situations (especially from loose plays such as this one).

[@louismaberry9683]

You are the Best Phil.

[@slowery43]

funny that you criticize a player yet your poker bankroll isn't even 1% of his, maybe learn from him instead of believing you are somehow superior

[@Johnny-cz2wv]

"he's excellent at making reads" Could we please stop this bs about Hellmuth? It's 2023 and every single (cash) hand we've seen over the years is played horrible. Enough is enough

[@GokuTheSuperSaiyan1]

17 bracelets

[@SoSo-li6dn]

"I knew he started with nothing" - Phil is a good reader, and is great against your average Joe. Most merge players will take, the check, check, bluff line for most of their J10s on most boards. Ive only ever seen Phil bluff preflop and on flops. Its just old fashioned poker and it works better on us degens better than we think.

[@bertraminc9412]

What look is Phil going for there with the crazy leather jacket indoors? Harrison Ford in Blade Runner? Rutger Hauer in The Hitcher? Come on dude, your indoors!

[@OMCPoker]

With all the editing I cannot be sure, but Dwan's "chip riffle" slows down when he is thinking hard.

[@OsefKincaid]

Tbh I think I misjudged Hellmuth all these years. I used to think he was a joke and he made a mockery of the game, but now I realize the game is a joke and deserves mockery, because even people who play completely stupidly like him can manage a career. I blamed an individual for something that was wrong with a system.

[@20pointer]

sd

[@smartmoneyachti]

Polarizing means you fold when you meet resistance but he calls 😂

[@PhilGalfond]

True 😂

[@chriswilson1968]

Dwan knows Helmuth wants to catch him bluffing so he gives him a chance to try.