Is Ukraine losing the War?

[@MilitaryHistoryNotVisualized]

You can follow Stanimir on twitter here: twitter.com/delfoo And me at: twitter.com/MilHiVisualized

[@strafniki1080]

That Dobrev guy is so anti russia

[@ondrejdobrota7344]

No, he is uneducated, obviously. Quite funny.

[@thejohnbeck]

Going by the publicly available data, the glorious victories are currently moving in one direction

[@peterschmidt1900]

@Bernhard: for understand the "russian mentality", I would recommend to just watch the ~5 Julia Ioffe videos on youtube, she explains it pretty well. One quote that stuck (discussing russian hacker attacks): (paraphrasing) "you are talking about us Russians, as if we were Germans and had everything planed out. No, we are Russian. We do things messy."

[@ondrejdobrota7344]

For the God sake, find someone educated for next video or research yourself. Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 02.07.2022 kzbin.info/www/bejne/pWOmgayChrtnq5I

[@mrgabagoo580]

I would rephrase Clausewitz for the modern West - Russia is never as strong as we fear nor as weak as we hope.

[@janbo8331]

Excellent.

[@balazshorvath3860]

Not bad.

[@mac-xk1ec]

nope!this is not the full extendt of their power..its an excercise for them

[@themissingpeace7956]

The West still sees Russia as backwards cartoon villains when they really just want to have a place in this world. I’m still unsure why Russia was target of so much hatred over the centuries. Even now Russophobia is alive and rampant in Western society.

[@balazshorvath3860]

@@mac-xk1ec an exercise...a pretty fucked up and costly, don't you think.

[@user_qwerty1990]

In a soviet artillery school: Instructor: " and so the shell is flying along an arc" Kadet: " so if it the gun is lying on its side we can shoot around corners, right?" Instructor:"yes, but soviet officers never shoot from around the corner"

[@stefanb6539]

I am not gonna shame people for dad jokes. But if you want to beef it up a tad, add a Radio Erewan vibe by adding "In principle" before the final "yes, but..."

[@MONSTERKILL2013]

I don't get it

[@ivoferin8176]

@@MONSTERKILL2013 you didnt saw the video.

[@userequaltoNull]

I think the punchline might have been lost in translation. Was this supposed to be wordplay?

[@user_qwerty1990]

@@userequaltoNull Hmm... it is implied that "shooting around a corner" is a treachery (like a "sucker punch" in English). So both the cadet and the instructor do not understand how artillery works.

[@abhilashyadav2274]

Within 17 minutes , more than 70 people put their comments without watching the video which is an hour long.

[@zakobruce]

because we saw enough bullshit early on, skipped ahead to see if it was still bullshit, then commented

[@MarcinP2]

The interview came with long intro speech. The preface was like 15 minutes.

[@dougcoombes8497]

Who cares how long it is when the beginning which is the part most people will watch is so clearly biased towards Russia. To start with, look at the damned map, after four months of war and huge losses Russia has taken 5% more of Ukraine than it already held. How the hell is that an advantage for Russia. The only people who are claiming that taking a small salient over 600km from Kyiv is a decisive victory for Russia are RU bots I don't care who they are. Also claiming that US support for Ukraine is waning is asinine when you consider that the US just passed a $40 billion aid package for UKraine AND a lend-lease bill of the kind that saved Russia in WW II against Nazi Germany. US support for Ukraine isn't decreasing, it's very strong across the west and every time Russia slaughters more civilians like at the shopping center then blames it on Ukraine support for Ukraine gets stronger. Also Biden didn't just send 4 HIMARS because he's losing interest. Ukrainian crews are just getting trained up and the Pentagon wanted an assessment of how well Ukrainians will use HIMARS in the war. They are reportedly very impressed and many more are coming. As well as more 155mm SPGs from across the west like Krabs, M109s, PzH 2000s, Caesars and more. As well as M270 MLRS. Which really raises the question for me as to why this channel is represented the war in such a dishonest way at the start of this video, which once again is the part that most people will see. All I know is the only reason I'll be checking back to this channel is to rip apart any more pro-Russia crap that might be presented.

[@pointlesspublishing5351]

Because Troll Army

[@maxmustermann9305]

Never underestimate the number of trolls in Moscows service

[@janekduda7548]

On the point of your confusion with what each sides says. You must know that one thing doesn't need to contradict another. The russian military can be extremely underfunded and mismanaged, but the sheer volume of equipment, artillery and aircraft they have in comparison to Ukraine, can nulify that. Plus, each side has talking heads that will always defend their narrative.

[@karlyo6937]

Underfunded and mismanaged and overwhelming volume of equipment is an oxymoron. Ignoring the fact that we have no proof of them being underfunded except from the same propaganda sources that claimed ghost of kiev

[@Knoloaify]

@@karlyo6937 It's not. A lot of the equipment is old stuff so it doesn't contradict the "underfunded" part (and "underfunded" is only relative to the size of the Russian army and economy, an underfunded Russian army is still getting more funds than the Ukrainian army), and mismanagement doesn't have anything to do with volume of equipment.

[@vandeheyeric]

@@karlyo6937 "Underfunded and mismanaged and overwhelming volume of equipment is an oxymoron. " No it's really not and all this tells me is that you don't understand issues like the shortcharged supplies and maintenance for Russia's massive reserve stockpiles. Also: take a look at the Kursk.

[@janekduda7548]

@@karlyo6937 It's all relative. Having huge stores of equipment, leftover by the soviet union, supplemented by production from modern times, doesn't mean they have good equipment on all their combat units. i.e mismanaged and underfunded relative to what they can possible do .

[@truekraut367]

thank you for adding the + thats the most important

[@mrgabagoo580]

I disagree with the gentleman regarding strategic thinking and the Chechens. It made strategic sense to use them in Syria as a means to convince the Syrians that Russia is a friend of Islam, or can at least accommodate Islam. Furthermore, perhaps through buying them off, but also through intimidation and understanding of the situation in Chechnya, Russia has turned its most rebellious region into a loyal autonomous republic ready to go to war for Russia (or at least for Putin). The second Chechen war was, as I understand it, really a civil war with Russia heavily backing the moderates. Basically, Russia pulled out of Chechnya and waited for enough resentment to build up against the powerful hardline jihadist faction. Once enough resentment had built up Russia was able to return as the arbiter of peace, security and moderation and install a cooperative local strongman. Chechnya will always be troublesome, but it strikes me that through understanding the region and applying soft and hard power effectively, Russia has created a very effective auxillary force from what was previously a bitter enemy. That speaks to me of highly effective strategic thinking and management, or a lot of luck. Kadyrov seems to revel in the role of Putin's lieutenant, after previously fighting against Russia. As a person from Britain's Chechnya (Ireland) that seems unimaginable.

[@janbo8331]

You must be the first person on the Internet to make sense for three straight posts in less than half an hour.

[@mrgabagoo580]

@@janbo8331 Thanks for the laugh and the compliment. But I'm sure someone else will be along soon to tell me what a moron I am.

[@aldosigmann419]

I think a lot of Chechens and Oyrish just really like a good fight - doesn't matter with who...

[@zeitgeistx5239]

Lol your “understand” of the Chechen war is Russian propaganda. Russians vs Chechens is not moderates vs extremists. You are wholly ignoring Chechen history and what happened to the Chechens at the hand of the Russians in the past century.

[@8thobretenov354]

Kadyrov tends to weld the FSB hostage in their offices if Moscow sends them over. Then Patrushev has to appease him...

[@fortusvictus8297]

The intelligence-sharing advantage Ukraine has cannot be understated. Though, military intelligence is rarely celebrated in the first place.

[@christianweibrecht6555]

I hope western intelligence helps ukrainian long range artillery crews quickly strike Russian artillery

[@Alien9828]

And you would trust western Intel ? Iraq and WMD moved that particular intel into the bag of bollocks. with all the intel/ Sat tel etc etc and special ops guys on the ground In Ukraine you'd think they would be able to do something to stop the RF from running rampant across Ukraine, and yet Russia is winning and will win regardless of the west's attempt to crush Russia, it aint going to happen.

[@karlyo6937]

Ukraine lost land the size of britain in mere months. While bleeding the west of their weapons. The only "intelligence" here is negotiation, the rest is propaganda.

[@seamusmckenna9307]

@@christianweibrecht6555 they need to hit there ammo depots

[@lungeranon7645]

Intelligence like Russian wont invade, Ukraine will surrender in 3 days if invaded, sanctions will destroy the Russian economy and warmaking ability, and to (my favorite) Russia is going to run out of shells and missiles and tanks by the end of the past March. With “intelligence” like this, that also advised Ukraine to provoke Russia and not negotiate in the first months of the war, with intelligence like this Ukraine must really have a “big advantage”!

[@TheRandCrews]

I love how there’s so many people commenting already before watching the whole video, disregarding any of the content or point yet to learn.

[@capt5656]

It seems the long-term thinking portion of our brains is going extinct...

[@MarcinP2]

Well he chose to add a preface. Commenting on preface is fair game. If you want people to watch the full interview do not preface it with commentary.

[@54032Zepol]

So the war has been going on since February so yeah we can see colors on the maps too buddy. It's no hard to read a map 🗺️

[@farmerboy916]

I mean, you say that like a lot of it isn’t overly salty russians who don’t care about truth

[@erikcartman2749]

Slava Russia 🇷🇺!

[@dusanbolek8004]

Mr. Dobrev knows very well how Soviet and post Soviet armies actually operate and their limits. His point about Russian artillery officers not being sufficiently good at math reminded me old story from Czechoslovakian People's Army back in eighties that I've been told by one veteran. At that point as part of the modernization efforts, Ministry of Defense bought artillery control vehicles which utilized radar for target acquiring and then could compute distances and send coordinates directly to batteries using data link. That's common these days, but back in eighties for Soviet block army it was very sophisticated equipment. The problem was it was assigned to the artillery units on army divisional level where available leadership was actually not enough "sophisticated" to use this, because it required understanding of math way above the basic level these officers had. So during annual exercises this guy who was reserve officer in charge of this vehicle was told to stay somewhere safe (because vehicle was so expensive, its damage would be bad news for anyone involved even pretty high in the military food chain), move radar antenna around so it would look like it's operating, but batteries just pretended to visiting guests that they were using its inputs, but were actually firing as always before using precomputed local data only. This approach can work during exercise in front of dignitaries who don't know better, but in a real war situation the equipment that no one knows how to use and was never really practically tested is not much of use.

[@lc1138]

This is so comically sad. I don't really know how to feel about it. If every military in the world had this level of incompetence and laisser-aller, maybe the world would be a better place. (Except for collateral damages, oops)

[@SRB.4S]

Mr. Dobrev is one ordinary charlatan my friend . What he said looks like a paid advertisement from the western side of damage control, for something that is imminent and unavoidable, and that is already an obvious defeat of Ukraine, which is less important, first of all an obvious defeat of America and NATO and the West in general. I watched the whole video to the end. In what Stanisalv Dobrov said, there is not even 1% truth, it's nonsense and conspiracy theories... Which looks like this "The Russians are incompetent, they have bad weapons, they don't have any strategy because they are stupid for it, they recruit people who are actually foresters , they are given tanks, armored vehicles ... Which cannot start properly, cannibalization, which is an individual case, and Dobrev cites it as practice, faulty technique, there are faulty vehicles from the reserve, they do not have ammunition, they do not have 122mm ammunition.. The Russian artillery is bad use of the old system, they don't have missiles, the Russians are stupid, because one of the Russians revealed the strategy of this special operation to Dobrev, so now he knows what their strategy is?! And if they didn't even mobilize, Dobrev says that they will, no can they do "?! And so the increasingly incompetent Russians have already won the war and are advancing ever deeper into the territory of Ukraine. Which one is armed, trained and supported by the West, America and NATO, to wage a proxy war for their interests?! It's such nonsense that Dobrev said, that it's even funny, that only 1% of his statements are true. And that is that MIG-29 engines have about 350 hours of resource. That is the only truth that he stated in his entire presentation of 50 minutes. However, the Russians have a powerful aviation force, not a single plane fell due to malfunctions in this operation. That is his lie number one. Both in towed and in self-propelled artillery, the Russians massively use and produce 122mm caliber ammunition... So his lie number two. That the Russians are such jerks as Stanislav presented them, led by Putin, that he got up one morning and said "hey, I have nothing else to do, let's go to war and conduct a special operation"?! This is such nonsense. Russia has been preparing tactically and strategically for this war for 8 years. So that's his lie number 3. Russian troops will falter when modern artillery is delivered to Ukraine from the west "which is better than Russian"?! It's even funny to comment on this, we can only say who is a military analyst today, it's really terrible! When it comes to the question of towed, self-propelled and rocket artillery, especially the Russians are clearly ahead of everyone else in the world, this has been known for a long time, only Dobrev does not seem to. And when it comes to quantity and quality, range and everything else, Russian artillery is 4 classes above the American one, for example, because the Americans never focused on that. Apart from the Paladin, which is a solid weapon, they don't have anything serious, now they are on a tender for the purchase of foreign howitzers Archer, Nora B-52... Or some other. And they will provide Ukraine with artillery?! Funny ?! This is his lie number 4. When it comes to artillery, the Russians have over 500 D-30 122mm howitzers in operational use and over 45,000 in reserve. MSTA B 250 operational and about 600 in reserve. 2S1 Gvozdika 230 operational and about 2000 in reserve. 2S3 Akatsiya 800 operational and 1000 in reserve. 2S7M Malka Active: 100 Reserves: 260. 2S5 Giatsint-S Active: 114 Reserves: 850. 2S19 Msta-S/2S19M1 and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2,935 pieces And of course 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV 72 active, which is the best in the world in terms of range and rate of fire. And that's just part of the artillery and mortars. Rocket artillery, which is definitely the strongest in the set. Tornado-G active 180. BM-30 Smerch/Tornado-S 180. BM-27 Uragan Active: 310 Reserve: 90. BM-21 Grad Active: 750 Reserves: 2,200. TOS-1 active around 100 pieces ... That's only a part, of course the data is from Wikipedia, let's be sure that the numerous state is already there, also not many systems are listed in general and are in use ... And now Stanisav tells us "As soon as from the west, the Russian artillery suppliers will flee, and the Ukrainians will be able to push them to the border." To paraphrase, that's roughly what he said. Before now, neither in terms of quality, quantity nor range, Western countries do not have artillery that, even if delivered to Ukraine, would have any strategic significance for the outcome of the war. Because the west has worse artillery in every sense than Russia. Not to mention the ISCANDER M strategic system and ballistic missiles and the like... When it comes to air defense systems, the West's lag behind Russia is enormous, it's even ridiculous to talk about it. At the same time, I did not provide the data for LNR and DNR, that's a plus on that number... Let's not talk about the number of tanks... In this way, Russia can go to war for another 5 years and not have to build a single piece of artillery. , tanks, strategic missile systems, anti-aircraft system ... How far is Russia ahead of Ukraine only in radars and anti-electronic warfare systems. It is impossible to compare 9S18 Kupol, Nebo-SV/S... 1RL257 Krasukha-4, Krasukha 2, Repelnd, 1L267 Moskva-1, Leer-2.. These are just some of them. Which are among the best in the world, will the West provide Ukraine with a similar system in that range and number, but a little tomorrow, maybe even sooner. Lie number 5 "Russians are stupid, they don't know math"?! One has to laugh at this. And somehow their artillery and all the systems hit exactly where they should. It must be because they are stupid?! It must be that Mr. Dobrev is stupid and lies even more! Because there is everything in a huge number and in a qualitative and quantitative range ... So the delivery of about a hundred tanks from Germany Leopard 1 A4/A5 which, by the way, is a worse tank than the T-72B3 that the Russians mainly use ... 200 T-72m tanks from Poland and of other countries... It's even funny. The Russians only have T-72 tanks over 2,000 active tanks, mainly T-72B3B3M variants, which are both the most modern and older versions of the BM/B version. And about 7000 in reserve. T-80 Active: 480 modernized and approx Reserves: 3,000. T-90 Active: 417 Reserve: 200... Which are actually pretty good tanks, and much better than what Ukraine got from the west, and in huge numbers.... BMP-1 Active: about 470 Reserves: 7,000 BMP-2 Active: 2,970 Reserves: 1,500 BMP-3 640 BMD-4 over 300 pieces BTR-80A/82A around 1,100 BTR 60,70 are not even mentioned, but the number is not less than 2000 in reserve... Let's not talk about aviation, that's even stupid, and talking about helicopter units is even stupider. And that's not counting LNR and DNR, which have their own equipment. Such as a large number of modernized T-64 tanks captured by Russian forces. Also, hypothetically, if the Russians lose 2000 tanks, it does not pose any problem for them. Especially since they haven't been losing too many lately. Because a large number of JEVELIN and NLAW systems were captured by Russian forces. And the tactics of using tanks are different and smarter, now with the Russians. Or 12 Cesar self-propelled howitzers from France, about a dozen Panzerhaubitze 2000 from Germany. And the 3 to 5 Himars system from the US?! Even a good part of it has already been destroyed. It is not enough for anything. Because those systems are not better than the Russian ones, but they are worse and in 50 times less number. How will someone compensate Ukraine for this number of high-quality Russian combat equipment from the West?! I really do not see such a possibility! Even if we assume that the West delivers to Ukraine, twice as much as the Russians have, which is impossible even with tricks. But let's take it as a fact, what about the manpower in the Ukrainian army. Many more people have died on the Ukrainian side and will die. The only way the West can win this war is if someone dies like cannon fodder instead of Ukrainians, these are obvious facts.

[@tunisiandom9318]

Actually he knows nothing and he is talking out of his ass in 90% of the points he made. It's amazing to me how little does it take to convince some people. Someone who has nothing as a career talking about Russia has no one to train new people for the Operation ? Gudermes University of spetsnaz has trained and sent multiple battallions already. Northern Fleet Naval infantry brigade's training company has recently been filmed training a battalion of volunteers from the fleet (cooks, sailors who want to go fight). Pictures are all over the Russian internet of troops rotating. Spetsnaz who fought in Feb-March are seen training in their bases. Russia has plenty of artillery shells to go around and plenty of artillery barrels, that's just what Soviet Doctrine (which you claim this fraud is knowledgeable about) had as guidelines: have plenty of all the consumables ... This is a major point that most people do not understand ... that's why the Collective west and their intelligence and media said unanimously Russians will Run out of missiles 2 weeks after the start, but missiles are still going strong into the 5th month. Russia is prepared for a long war, just the opposite of the west who have admitted they are Running low on supplies www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/admiral-chief-of-the-defence-staff-ukraine-uk-armed-forces-government-b2106807.html www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1680463/lithuania-running-dry-on-weapons-to-hand-over-to-ukraine Volunteers are training and going nearly a group every week. and troops are rotating. homecoming videos are common on the russian internet. It's amazing to me how people are ready to ignore facts and skew reality just to fit in their narrative. All that said, the reality on the ground is as clear as it can be. one side is advancing, one side is on constant retreat. one side is asking for weapons, one side is fighting calmly. One side is burrying hundreds every day, one side is advancing with minimal losses.

[@tacho843]

Stanimir Dobrev seems to be bulgarian. So am I. I couldn't find anything about him in bulgarian language. He is literally unknown as military expert in the country.

[@captainwin6333]

@@tunisiandom9318 I think this is right. Either the west was being overly optimistic or is just flat out telling lies. Russia must have been aware since 2014 that what is happening in 2022 was a strong possiblity and the suggestion form the West is Russia sat on it's ass for 8 years and did zero preparation? NATO's boss said they had been planning on this eventuality since 2014 but they want everyone to believe Russia wasn't? If anything it's NATO that looks like it wasn't ready for what happened. In my view what has happened this year is the US wants this to drag on as long as possible and in order to do so they had to convince Zelenskyy and Ukrainians in general that they could win this war hence the lies about Russia not having the weapons, the ammunition or the leadership to actually win. The US has led Ukraine to believe they can win this militarily and I think initially Ukrainians believed this meant NATO would intervene but they had to learn the hard way that wasn't going to happen. Now they're in a situation where they're having to borrow a weapon system from one country and another system from another, so on and so forth and are having to be trained to use a dozen countries weapons systems. As soon as one contingent of weapons systems are destroyed, the troops trained to use tham are not able to immediately use another system because they are not trained to use them. It's a total shit show. Russia doesn't have that issue. It has it's own weapons systems so it's troops only have to learn those. The USA is using Ukrainian lives to fight it's proxy war with Russia and countries like Taiwan will be watching closely because if Ukraine fails and NATO sits back and doesn't step in, Taiwan will know the same is likely if China makes moves to take back control of Taiwan. It would be much harder for NATO to support Taiwan than it is to support Ukraine given NATO countries borders Ukraine so moving weapons is easy.

[@anthonykelly1368]

I don’t have a dog in this fight, but I can’t help but notice the analysis is categorically negative with regard to the side that is clearly, objectively in possession of the initiative right now. Russia overestimated its capabilities. So did Ukraine, apparently. In attrition vs annihilation terms, Russia tried annihilation and is now settling for attrition. If this remains an attrition scenario, I don’t see how Ukraine prevails. Nobody is doing Ukraine favors by sugarcoating the dilemma they’re currently facing.

[@WangMingGe]

A point I often make. I live here (Ukraine). I want us to win. I do not like the Russians. But fighting The Somme on the Steppe is not a wise move...it only is better for begging for aid $$$ and taking kickbacks, versus a guerilla war of rifles, mines, RPGs, nooses and fire. The latter, we would be almost sure to win, but it would take years, and the milquetoast liberal politicians would be weeded out of power in what the country would become in the process. The former, we look good for a few months, and inevitably lose.

[@anthonykelly1368]

@@WangMingGe unfortunately for you, NATO is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. I’m not giving the Russians a pass for clearly engaging in aggression. That said, anyone who paid attention to the Georgia situation should have seen this coming. This was predictable and preventable. The Russians are not rational actors if they feel threatened. You are in the current jackpot thanks to a tone deaf Uniparty establishment in America and a Ukraine government that put its vassalage to the US before its own people’s interests. That said, in your situation I’d be fighting the Russians with everything I could muster. However, you must understand, eventually the US will betray you. (Ask ARVN, The Shah of Iran, The Kurds 1991, the 1980s Contras, Iraqis who allies with US up to 2010, Afghans we abandoned, etc)

[@piked261]

@@WangMingGe how about sorting out the Ukrainian neo Nazis!

[@perekstra8728]

Any Guerrilla war depends on support in the local population, as far as I understand the support in eastern/southern part of Ukraine is clearly leaning towards Russia or independence. Western/northern is opposite, leaning towards Ukraine. To go for guerrilla war in Donbas and southern Ukraine is guaranteed to loose strategically, and only create suffering for the Civilian population. So what you suggest is terrorism and really a crime against humanity.

[@anthonykelly1368]

@@perekstra8728 I don’t think anyone is suggesting anything. Ukraine needs to have a credible force afield so it can cut the best deal with Russia it can, without regard to taking casualties ad infinitum just to save face for NATO. Ukraine needs to do whatever’s best for Ukraine. They’re currently being propped up because there’s a midterm election in the USA.

[@Mahbu]

You wouldn't think it but defining what "winning" and "losing" is can be very complicated. It comes down to what you are trying to do and what you are willing to expend to achieve it vs what the other side is trying to do and what they are willing to expend to achieve it. And even that includes any number of caveats.

[@olex2999]

Exactly what the losing side would say

[@karlyo6937]

Sounds like cope. Ukraine: losss soldiers and territories Ukraine simps: what is losing?

[@edgelord8337]

@@karlyo6937 they still think that lisichansk falling was no big deal.

[@vandeheyeric]

@@olex2999 "Exactly what the losing side would say " No, it's what most people looking at the clusterfuck of warfare is.

[@vandeheyeric]

@@karlyo6937 "Sounds like cope. Ukraine: losss soldiers and territories Ukraine simps: what is losing? " Let's ignore that a defensive war is almost always going to feature fighting on one country's territory- especially due to fear of it- and so a lot of the war is going to take place conquering or reconquering the same turf. Let's also ignore how Russian military doctrine is frontloaded and focused on rolling out with a strong series of starting attacks, but which for various reasons is going to have a challenge adapting. Especially with the questions of whether Russia will formally declare war or start trying to activate its reservists. I won't say Ukraine will win, but I will say that some of us have studied things like the Sino-Japanese War and the Toyota War, where it turns out that occupying large swaths of one country doesn't bring in.

[@mrgabagoo580]

Again, I have to disagree with the gentleman regarding the Syrian intervention. Outright victory has not been completely achieved, but when one compares the effectiveness of the Russian intervention in Syria to Western intervention in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, the returns on the investment are vastly superior. Russia put comparatively little in and, thus far has had far better results, from a Russian/Assadist perspective, than the West while fighting opponents with far greater foreign backing than anything the West has confronted in the region.

[@zivaradlovacki2666]

Western intervention in Lybia, Afghanistan and Iraq? They ruined those countries for their benefits! What intervention you heartless person with conscience living in sewer?

[@cdeford]

Another thing to realize is that the Russian objective was to keep Assad in power and protect their lone naval base in the Med. While they would like the US out of Syria, it's not vital to them.

[@penultimateh766]

Yeah, no limit to what you can accomplish if you don't care how many civilian casualties you cause.

[@8thobretenov354]

Russia's contingent which stayed around 5000-6000 managed in the 2,5 years that had the most intensive fighting to lose over 22 manned aircraft and suffer over a dozen damaged. The number killed are in the tripple digits and the known names list includes three generals.

[@zivaradlovacki2666]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/g4bJf4qVrr5_btU

[@NickNov]

I wonder how this will age... We will have to see.

[@vaxrvaxr]

Two years later, people are using the same headlines.

[@johnvitalis952]

Everybody is talking tactics, nobody is reviewing strategy. The only thing on the news that was long term strategic in nature was the meeting between the US DOD and the military contractors regarding production capabilities.

[@peterbarca8783]

Link please. Or if KZbin delete title of video please.

[@andykerr3803]

Strategy and tactics with total disregard to logistics. Out of fuel, food, ammunition and high on drugs and glory.... Good luck.

[@johnvitalis952]

@@andykerr3803 logistics and tactics are just a part in the execution of strategy.

[@andykerr3803]

@@johnvitalis952 Of course... The part Ukraine lacks. Specifically supply and distribution. That includes information on enemy strength. We won't talk about Ellensky lying to the Pentagon about his own troop strength. These are not minor points. The strategy and tactics were equally flawed, but in different ways. Arestovych, who seems to actually make military decisions, says that " Ukraine can only run with lies...." Possibly, but a military conflict? NEVER.

[@johnvitalis952]

@@andykerr3803 I'm talking about the media....you seem confused.

[@0MoTheG]

Russian artillery is denying areas at range. That doesn't mean that they are hitting Ukrainian troops. Without spotters you can hit a town but not a military target.

[@huntergatherer7796]

Russia uses drones to spot targets for their artillery. Using actual Forward observers is so 20th century.

[@scamdem1c]

other militaries have spotters, but the russian military dont. how do i know? dont ask! i just know!!! also, someone said russia is mysteriously losing drones for spotting. i will not question anything, i will just believe the claims that russia is losing everywhere and has ZERO spotting capability. also, russia keeps doing indiscriminate attacks non stop. this makes sense. why would you try to hit your enemies when you can just hit an empty field or some random civilian deliberately for no good reason? ammo may be precious and are better used for hitting actual targets, but nothing beats indiscriminate attacks. those are definitely more effective!!! how do i know? i just know!!!

[@Alan.livingston]

War nerd radio did a great piece a few weeks back discussing that this change in tactics was expected as this is how they won the second Chechnya war. Worth a listen.

[@hippoace]

and they have the Chenchens fighting for them now...

[@johnchao2422]

Got a link handy? I used to love the War Nerd blog back in 2008 for sale, but I haven’t seen much stuff from him since. I did love the War Nerd Iliad though

[@manubishe]

Joining on the query

[@troymash8109]

Nah. I spent too much time as an American grunt. Ukraine ain't Chechnya and anyone making a comparison of any sort there is high on their own farts.

[@Alan.livingston]

@@troymash8109 Ahhh, the good old "I'll mention I was infantry so everyone will say thank-you-for-your-service and accept whatever I say as gospel" approach. I like it. It's like when my mechanic and I discuss the strategy of global car makers. He has basically no idea because he's in the industry but his job is spinning spanners, and I have literally no idea because I just regurgitating my meta analysis of whatever I've read. In principle I do actually agree with you, the two conflicts aren't very similar. Geography, politics, the scale of western backing, it's all very different. The similarity people were talking about is that they both involved *bold* opening gambits that got cut to pieces before the Russians have then switched up to play to their strong suit of flattening everything then rolling in a cleaning out the rubble. Given the analyst in this video spent a large portion of the time talking about artillery tubes and such, it kind of indicates that people think it's going to dictate Russias ability to continue their advance.

[@T33K3SS3LCH3N]

27:00 I think Stanimir means that Russia has to expand its aircraft industry on the production side to start properly building new planes, while Bernhard thought that he was talking about expanding the airlines. Since Russian airlines can no longer fly in the west, their airline business will shrink. But at the same time the domestic production of aircraft has to expand, since they won't be able to buy new western types or maintain most old western aircraft for long.

[@pteppig]

they are allready doing that for normal transport machines for goods and people, they have a jointventure with china and also cooperating in many projects with india.

[@orbiradio2465]

And Russia depends on the civilian air traffic, because the country is so huge, that going by train or car is often not an option.

[@JeanLucCaptain]

also they are essentially back o the old Cold War brinksmanship with NATO trying to surround them by adding more countries. So they would need more Strrategic Aviatson to counter the additons of Finland and Sweden. this makes sense. By comparison this guys report cites no sources, we just have to take his word for it i guess!

[@lordanonimmo7699]

Expand will be even harder now,they dont have as much acess to electronics and semicondutors from west and allies anymore wich the russian are heavily reliant if they want to be competitive,China also cant help with this.

[@oldschool8oy]

"Russia seems to be running out of .." its a thing that we hear since the second week of war...Its absolutely hilarious that the narrative is still at the same stage.

[@bastionblackperformance3804]

Well they're having to replace tank losses with T62s, air and drone sorties have been in massive decline, their precision munitions are close to exhausted given the lack of precision strikes performed by munitions filling the precision role and there are myriad testimonials of Russians using 3rd battalion elements to fill Frontline roles when their actual role is training but ok...

[@74dthereapers94]

@@bastionblackperformance3804 T62 tanks went to breakaways, The train of T80s were for russians.

[@menyahassan4701]

Yaa putin is dyiny in 24hrs many people still believe in these so called analysts who have been proven wrong since Iraq Afghanistan and Syrian wars but funny enough they still shamelessly face in the camera and utter the same BS

[@bastionblackperformance3804]

@@74dthereapers94 they've already been geolocated in Russian AOs as well, and you purposefully didn't address any of the rest of it.

[@jjsmthr]

@@74dthereapers94 "breakaways" 🤡🤡🤡 stop denying russians are using old trash t62 tanks, which in itself is pathetic, as they claim themselves to be 2d best army on earth

[@21anikm]

Pretty funny seeing Austrians of all people say that Ukraine should've been supplied earlier.

[@strafniki1080]

Everyone is saying hands off of Ukraine

[@jimmybold5903]

Austria is a neutral country and should have never got involved in that stupid conflict at all. Bad enough that all the other Europeans act as usual as USA puppets

[@antoniramponi5808]

Why is that funny?

[@jonmce1]

An Austrian

[@u.2b215]

Why is that? Just because Austria isn't supplying Ukraine with weapons nor planning to doesn't mean they can't judge the situation properly.

[@Ruhrpottpatriot]

On the long vs short term point: I'm pretty sure the Russian leadership fully understands, in what mess they've gotten into. But their narrative of a "special military operation" just doesn't allow them to massively ramp up tooling and mobilize more forces quickly. Because questions about the wars isn't something Moscow can afford.

[@stefanb6539]

I am not so sure about "the Russian leadership". There seems to be a lot of compartmentalizing and setting up various echo chambers going on. Yes-men and career monkeys aren't especially good at communicating honestly with each other, let alone at understanding needs and problems at lower echelons.

[@2nolhta]

It is quite special as Ukraine and Russia still trading.

[@patriciusvunkempen102]

well that narrative worked for the west in countless wars in the middleeast, in the west they call those operations even " peace missions" when the actual goal is to stabilise their local allies with european troops. or just outright surpression of rebellion like in afghanistan

[@Ruhrpottpatriot]

@National Socialism "Russia still pays Ukraine billions every month in gas transit fees." And Nazi Germany paid the US patent fees via Opel during the 2nd World War. Declaring war isn't constituent for two nations being at war, most of human history wars have been fought without any side declaring war. For example Napoleon's war against Russia in 1812 began without a formal declaration of war, as did Operation Barbarossa, the German invasion of the Soviet Union. "destroying the best NATO proxy it has ever had." Where do you buy your #copium? Must be good stuff. The best Proxy NATO has had`Laughable. That would either be Israel or South Korea. Ukraine is an army that a few years ago dropped its weapons and ran away, with equipment that mostly was (and is) even worse what Russia is now pulling out of storage. In the last few weeks they've gotten a glimpse of what NATO countries really have in store with HIMARS and the PzH2000, but those are artillery pieces and won't fall into enemy hands that easily. Germany won't even export KPz Leopard 1 that were obsolete 30 years ago and FLAKPz Gepard from the same timeframe. No NATO country is (and most certainly won't) deliver any semi-modern equipment, even if it means Ukraine will fall. But hey, Putin already achieved what he always wanted: A place in the history books; just not HOW he wanted. He's not going to be remembered like he wanted, a modern Peter the Great, but as the person who finally destroyed the Russian Empire by making sure Ukraine from now on will always define itself with everything NOT Russian, making the Finns drop their "finlandization" and having Sweden stop the Neutrality that has lasted since the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Nice job breaking it Putin! *thumbs_up*

[@Ruhrpottpatriot]

@National Socialism Yeah, sure. Sweden was so "NATOized" that it even fought alongside the US against the Vietcong, oh wait... If the only things you get our of your VK bubble are unsupported theories to support your "West bad -- Russia good" narrative, then I can't help you. "is way different than ISIS or Ukrainian paramilitaries." I never said anything about ISIS; and sure, Ukrainian paramilitaries. Nice joke. "Judeo-American Empire" Ah! So this, then, was the kernel of the your anti-semitic brute! Don't you feel stupid that you still believe a millennia old myth? You defend that country that your spiritual fathers wanted to destroy by all means because it was the heartland of the people you apparently hate so much You're a joke; but modern day Nazis are always a joke.

[@spd579]

This was an outstanding conversation. The insight that it has given me, brings up a sad state of how people in military service are being thrown away on a near term plan and how Russia has forgotten to think about the future. The generation that is walking away with this conflict on their souls, will tell their children, "You are nothing but a small part of a machine, in a badly planed action, that will be forgotten as you bleed out. Your replacement is on the way and knows less than you did at the beginning. Don't trust your leaders, my child. They do not have your best interests at heart but, their deep pockets to be filled." Its an emotional thing to me yes. The Ukraine, being thought of as a break away and not its own country, tells me of little respect of what tomorrows generation will have for Russian peace overtures.

[@TheBelrick]

Wrong . Dead wrong. What this video is is pure propaganda paid for by Ukraine's masters to spread disinformation. RF is winning this war handily. The West cannot replace the losses the AFU has already suffered. This guy, is a liar and you his victim.

[@rauldelvillar374]

Please take your meds.

[@dosa2990]

Pure propaganda

[@jonathanpork-sausage617]

This was a little ill informed and not well or clearly argued. I ended up skipping through it. Ukraine is divided ethnically and geographically. Ukrainian (and separatist) doctrine is based on lingustic and ethnic principles. But if you think that this proves that the Russians are bad and the Ukes are united and heroic, fine, the process of history is more complex and brutal as countless conflicts in this theatre over the centuries demonstrated.

[@jonathanpork-sausage617]

@@rauldelvillar374 Stuff like this are meds for some people.

[@KENACT1]

All you talked about were problems the Russians are facing. Would I be incorrect in thinking that Ukraine has the same problems but even worse?

[@9and7]

No.

[@userequaltoNull]

No. Ukraine has been Westernizing it's armed forces for many years, while Russia still pretty much uses Soviet doctrine.

[@ImperativeGames]

They face much more problems but you won't hear about them on Western channels. It's laughable to hear about great Ukrainian moral when forced conscripts film videos how they refuse to fight and follow orders, how hundreds of them surrender every day and how they run from positions in fortified cities. But hired "experts" brainwash naive people with war propaganda.

[@Jinseual]

They've already talked about the problems Ukraine was having from the start of the video.

[@ImperativeGames]

@@Jinseual Talking about something and understanding something is 2 very different things. They don't understand the situation. Russia is really at war with Western world (oligarchs). Putin doesn't think about Ukraine as a colony because it's not even that. It's a tool for threatening Russia so it will join USA in a war against China. And will bear the main load of this conflict (just like Ukraine is burdened with the cost of conflict with Russia). But Russia refused to submit and went to escalate the situation. Like, when someone takes your children hostage - you take minigun and spray and pray 'em. This Western plans were doomed to fail because Russia sees the state of Ukraine after a few years of occupation. So, Russia is OK with destroying the "world" (Western, really) economy through Ukrainian conflict. Time is working for Russia.

[@josephkush1032]

The media also showing a different reality then what is happening

[@jimmybold5903]

Exactly. They fooled people in believing that Ukraine seriously would stand a chance to win this war. Ridiculous

[@greymatter6834]

True. Russian state media is one sided.

[@karlyo6937]

Because propaganda

[@alohaal7125]

That's the point of the media. Every media is pushing it's narrative.

[@danwylie-sears1134]

Thank you for doing this kind of analysis. I can find a bunch of channels showing today's map, talking about three square kilometers here and five square kilometers there. That kind of thing is not going to determine the outcome of the war, and it seems as though no one talks about the stuff that can.

[@Crazylalalalala]

I dont knw why this is still a discussion. Western news sources had told me that Russia ran out of ammunition and gas on like the third day and they lost half their forces on the fourth. 129 days later Ukraine is about to lose another major city and whole of Luhansk. For the most part any positive action by Ukraine has been mostly symbolic taking of empty/lightly defended towns with no really strategic value especially sense Russia shifted its focus to the east. One thing is clear is that Ukraine is using the media far more effectively than Russia has (they learned well from the Palestinians, the Ukrainian version of Pollywood is outstanding). It also seems like the media/gov't saying that Russia is a hacking and propaganda super power was false all along. This Russia expert seem to be just regurgitating a lot of the crap we have been told from day one. Which so far doesn't seem to be reflected on the ground. But time will tell, if he is right we will find out in a few weeks. The pro Russia analysts seem to be more accurate these days. He also hasnt really provided any evidence to support any of his claims. (though the context of the interview may be a reason for that.)

[@karlyo6937]

What do you mean?. Lisichansk is already taken bro.

[@Crazylalalalala]

@@karlyo6937 At the time of the writing, as far as i can tell the Russian only took about half of it

[@seanmaguire9950]

How is Biden 'openly criticising' Zalensky? The only thing I can find anything apart from Biden saying Zalensky didn't believe US intelligence before the invasion. I really feel there is a pro Russian slant in the Theresian Military Academy videos, I still find the analysis interesting.

[@FantadiRienzo]

There is no pro Russian slant. What Colonel Reissner (?) is saying is that the euphoria from the media distorts the situation assessment. If you want to win, you have to have a clear picture of what is actually happening on the ground. Call it a germanic attitude. Face the facts. Cheerleading won't help a lot. Nobody but a few nutjobs want Russia to win, but the way things are right now, it would be better for them and the entire west to just give up the land Ukraine has lost. Putin successfully tricked the West. The West doesn't have the material to support Ukraine adequately and is economically too depended, the war has plunged the whole world into a crisis. At some point you just have to swallow that pill and accept defeat.

[@AnamolHouse]

him also saying that there's diminishing enthusiasm from the west supplying them with heavy weapons, while the US house is debating training Ukraine pilots in F16s at this very moment

[@FantadiRienzo]

@@AnamolHouse How many F16's? Reisner's point with western supplies is that it's just optics. A handful of MLRS/HIMARS or PzH2000/M109 won't change the tide, and a dozen F16's certainly won't either. The only country really going all in is Poland.

[@jimmym3352]

This statement surprised me. But what I think he's referring to is the fact that some people in the West (and of course the U.S.) feel they need to change their objectives and essentially let Donbas go. There is some criticism about their objectives of the war. There really is no chance of Ukraine gaining back lost territory. Especially if Belarus enters the war which I see happening.

[@SRB.4S]

You're right . Since Zelensky is a comedian and clown, he did not listen to the demented madman Biden. Maybe that's why the Ukrainians lost the war! They may have lost the war after the color revolution of 2014, but they were not aware of it until now. At the moment when Victoria Newland was handing out sandwiches to them on the street and then choosing who would be the president and prime minister of Ukraine. Only there they miscalculated a little. Because Russia is not Somalia, Iraq, Serbia, Afghanistan, Syria, Cuba... Just some of the countries. Where America invaded. Russia said, when you can carry out invasions all over the world without problems and not punished, here I can too and what are you going to do about it?!

[@alexwphx]

This war honestly sounds like it is being run by the executives at the modern multinational I work for. They are only concerned with the results this quarter. I wonder if the civilian leadership is versed in modern business practices, rather than actual military practices, which are very different from each other.

[@TheBelrick]

Ukraine was losing from the beginning. Except winning the propaganda war given that Ukraine is ruled by the same groups who own and run Enemedia and also throw funds at channels like this one. In short, they lie. Ghost of Kiev anyone?

[@chera3777]

In my opinion and experience I believe there are certain filters in a organization which determine if you make it up the career ladder. For instance: -Character: People who want to score and get short term results (some good some bad for the organization in the long term). -In certain organizations only yes-sayers will get through the filter, others are deemed too critical and sidelined. I think this is always leasing to bad outcomes in the long run. -The network someone has. Often its not what you deliver or able to do but who you know. I might sound salty but the big organizations I work in is really bad at detecting real talent versus the leaders who only care about themselves and not the long term organization nor the team.

[@filmandfirearms]

If they were versed in such, Ukraine's economy would be far better off than it actually is. Ukraine has some of the richest land in Europe, and the potential to be an agricultural titan. Everyone in eastern Europe knows it. Ironically, that's also part of what caused holodomor. Stalin had some absolutely insane agricultural policies, which he targeted at the best farmland he had, Ukraine. That same reason is why Russia, Poland, Germany, and Turkey spent centuries fighting each other over it. However, the Ukrainian government has not moved to take advantage of this fact. They would rather bathe in their hatred all day. Not just of Russians, but of everyone, even those who try to help them. They hate the Poles for their ancient land claim on western Ukraine, which they last tried to pursue in 1925

[@WALTERBROADDUS]

@@filmandfirearms what the hell are you talking about? There is no Ukraine economy. Farmers are not farming anything. Nor do you have anyone as labor. And if Odessa Falls you will have no access to the Sea. Meaning no export. And frankly they'll be rebuilding the nation for the next quarter of a century.

[@jong.7944]

@@WALTERBROADDUS History suggests Ukraine is in for one hell of a hangover when they try to transition from total mobilization to peacetime economy. And just imagine if it’s perceived as “losing” whatever that means to Ukrainians. You’ll have a country flooded with rifles, grenades, and rockets and no jobs… yikes!

[@petersmythe6462]

more useful question than objective-based winning and losing is "What are Ukraine and Russia's positions compared to the antebellum status quo?"

[@answerman9933]

Peter Smythe This may be useful. But had this question been asked been asked in September 1941 just before the battle of Moscow ...

[@answerman9933]

@@MrZlocktar Sounds almost like 1941 again.

[@cadelism]

@@MrZlocktar "50,000 of troops dead, 16.000 of POWs and x2-3 wounded" lol, that's some proper crackpipe statistics

[@WangMingGe]

@@answerman9933 Does Ukraine have the millions of troops and massive equipment reserves of the USSR in 1941? No. All you are doing is trying to apply meme logic to reality.

[@christianweibrecht6555]

@@MrZlocktar please cite your sources of information aka where you found those numbers

One correction. I know for a fact that people are being rotated and given leave in the Russian side.

[@420JackG]

Obviously they should have a much greater capacity for that. I'm just not sure the Ukrainians have the trained personnel for that in even the most optimistic of circumstances.

[@terryhudson4775]

@@420JackG Yes but those not in contract are NOT going back to the front line

[@tomaszsendecki1278]

The main issue of the Russian Army is lack of personel. They have very little boots to rotate, so if the rotation actually happens, it is very much limited to singular cases.

[@stariyczedun]

AFAIK only Rosgvardia guys are being rotated who are not frontline troops, more like riot police.

[@happyhappynuts]

There are plenty of intercepted phone calls where Russians complain of not being given leave. There are similar ones for DPR conscripts as well.

[@Digmen1]

AT 15:00, yes gun rebarelling is very important, it was a big factor in the First World War. Guns cannot fire forever.

[@jameswyre6480]

Yes, it even showed up as a major issue in Remarque’s All Quiet.

[@merocaine]

Why do KZbin experts not think a fricking artillery based army would know that.

[@jb-xc4oh]

@@merocaine They have thousands of spare artillery pieces in reserve.

[@michaelpettersson4919]

@@merocaine Of course they know that but maybe the logistics needed to do this rebarreling may have a backlog building up.

[@merocaine]

@@michaelpettersson4919 that would be handled in the regimental workshops, this is the Russians bread and butter.

[@Franky46Boy]

This aged very well... 🙄

[@Quantarius]

Stanimir - your points are valid, but only to a point. 1. They don't need to use only large drones for ranging/spotting. They are starting to use other civilian drones and other means. 2. There is plenty of barrels in storage, plus older guns in storage...tons of them and tons of ammo...and the are capturing more ammo. Soviet era artillery calibers are very standartized. 3. The wave of volunteers is rising and reservists are being recalled. To me it looks like discipline is now top notch (versus the first month of the war). The civilian support for the war is actually rising - the war is now seen as an EXISTENTIAL war for the survival of the Russian state...this was the mistake we made - we have woken up the bear...Don't worry about the Russian losses - they can endure the amount and type of losses that we in the west CANNOT. 4. Luhansk Oblast is taken and the front will focus in Donbas...The Russians overwhelmed hardened defenses that were built over 8 years in 2 months. There are no such hardened defenses to the west of where the fighting is now...All of Donbas will fall...then may be there will be time for an offensive toward Zaporizhie..may be not...we will see an operational pause in the winter...As to your analysis, I think while some of these points may be valid to a point, none of them will have ANY significant impact. You are wrong about them not preparing for a long war - on the contrary, I think that they are in many respects that you are not discussing here. You are discounting the fact that the biggest variable is the personal heroism of the soldier and officer in the theater of war...in the last month or so I am seeing Ukranians surrendering and running on masse, not russians...Ukrainian TerDefense units cry on social media like babies daily...aand it will get WORSE for the Ukranians...much, much worse. So, there is your answer how the war will end. It's a totally different thing who will win the Peace...I don't think that Russia can win the peace... Така че много приказки, но нямят почти никакво значение.

[@ademarmackenzie183]

If the main topic is about "Is Ukraine losing the War? Why most of the time they only talk about Russia. It should focus more on the Ukraine side. As Joe Biden said" Anerica Knows more about the states of the Russia army, than the Ukraine army". Well from all video about the war in Ukraine, I hardly find an article talking about the shortcomings of Ukraine.

[@guntguardian3771]

I think it's pretty clear that people talk about Ukrainian short comings in terms of their equipment. What isn't clear is their ability to fight in the ground, but this is down to who is operating better in the information space. Russia was touted as being a disinfo super power, but Ukraine has hidden its own shortcomings, highlighted Russia's and as a result convinced countries to send them incredible amounts of new, high end western kit and old Soviet kit too.

[@LjubomirLjubojevic]

@@guntguardian3771 WEST is touting Russia as info super power, so they can ban Russian media and discredit info coming from Russia as "notorious lies". Russia is actually pretty week in projecting soft power, mostly because Russian diplomacy doctrine is to religiously stay out of internal things of other countries. This is done so that small countries around the world can trust them no meddling in internal affairs will be made. Everywhere where Russians started helping, there was invite and precise contract between govt of country receiving help. If they were so active, Ukrainian population would not have been turned against Russia. Only USA invested around $5 bn in 1991-2014 period to turn Ukrainians against Russia.

[@srdjadzogaz286]

This must be a joke, every couple of decades someone comes around and gives some projection about russian military weakness... and they never learn. This dude is basically telling us that Russia which has ~1 million standing regular army and is also inheritor of most of USSR weapon, ammunition stockpiles and production means and resources (which was preparing for 40 years for WWIII) suddenly will start running out of the weapons and ammo while waging a limited war for couple of years with ~200k troops. Get a f***ing grip. With their military industrial means and resources undisturbed they can wage war of this intensity for years easily and they will, until they leave most of ukraine industry and population centers in ruins.

[@tengkualiff]

Exactly lol, all this downplaying of Russia, the 2nd most powerful military, is just not analyzing it from their side as well.

[@Kefuddle]

Nail on the head. If I recall correctly, they ran out of Kaliber missiles in the second week. But still they come.

[@dubbylove9068]

@@Kefuddle running out of equipment on the battle field is definitely clumsy fighting no Bs

[@Bee.Holder]

If Russian army spends 50.000 artillery shells a day which is equivalent of how much the US spent over the entire war in Iraq, that only means one - they can afford it.

[@dubbylove9068]

@@Bee.Holder this war can't be compared iraq and Afghanistan aren't military equiped

[@wareagle3651]

I’m a disinterested American but I must say, all of Satanimir’s points were based on worst-case scenario assumptions of Russian/DPR/LPR forces. Also, he doesn’t address the complete decimation of manpower on Ukraine’s side. Heavy weapons are crucial but they don’t do much good when there are no trained men to operate them. Also, many of AFU’s trained men are laying down arms.

[@Whangareitaiji3138]

The Ukrainians aren't being "decimated". They're holding the line with the minimum of troops. It's why they're having some problems with some TDF units. They have a massive reserve building up. Why do you think Johnson offered to train 10,000? He knows they have that type of reserve. They're also had some like 2500 training in the UK. How do you think they could afford that if they were being "decimated"? I think you're watching too much CNN or Fox.

[@williamromine5715]

I was under the impression that this video was about the Russian side of the war, and that a later video would be about the Ukraine side.

[@michaelm1589]

Yep. This wasn't addressed and the point you are making makes me skeptical of if the West are doing enough to plan support long term if they really want Ukraine to win. This is probably an overly simplistic idea but I would have thought Western countries would have started the process of cranking up their own defence industries by now and grabbing tens of thousands of "fresh" Ukrainians to train them up into various professional military rolls. The UK has pledged to do something similar to the latter but it's light on detail and haven't heard of a similar commitment from other nations.

[@IC1101]

"American"... lol good one Igor... u fukin bot

[@LEARSIKCIGAM]

I heard the ghost of Kiev blew the Russians on Snake Island

[@oletoustrup8572]

I can´t imagine ukranian artillerists were better trained.

[@bolerobolero5668]

They're from the same "school" like the Russians are. So they're very good.

[@YiAtlas]

@@bolerobolero5668 According to some Ukraine account, many trained soldiers are already lost. Many units are completely green at the moment, and they are not receiving any training because of lack of equipment and time. It is hard to discuss the Ukraine artillery’s are better trained or not before the war, but at this moment, probably unreliable information.

[@karlyo6937]

Better trained at shooting civilians

[@thanakonpraepanich4284]

@@YiAtlas It look as if there are no professional soldiers and officers left to go around in the Ukrainian Army after Mariupol surrendered. Did Ukraine wasted most of its officers corp defending the city and now is running out of NCOs too?

[@artyom5659]

@@YiAtlas Russia has bombed most Ukrainian artillery and advanced weapons, the Ukrainians just run out to the open with old AK’s, while Russia is tactically destroying Ukrainians forces like in Mariupol in attritional warfare. Ukraine will be done in a couple of months, the war will be over by Christmas with total Russian victory.

[@danykovac8293]

I have little respect over analytics that claim they know what Russian officials thought or expected. But reading minds is special skill I always wanted as well.

[@Asghaad]

you do realize some analysts have access to sources in intelligence and military right ? They dont need to read minds, just peeking at theyr mail ...

[@danykovac8293]

@@AsghaadI doubt they need special inside source to claim similar mainstrim narative that is all over the western media.

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

I have no respect to those who would talk on others behalf for pay something they themselves dont believe.

[@tallshort1849]

@@danykovac8293 oh hear we go. Western media blah blah

[@Bee.Holder]

@@Asghaad Even if they do, that certainly doesn't include classified data. Moreover, their sources can deliberately give them misleading info's knowing that they will spread it to their opponents.

[@georgekostaras]

I regret that Russian media like RT was banned in the west. Not because I think they’d be honest or objective but it would at least give the average citizen a picture of the Russian narrative and worldview. For too long we in the west had a lopsided view of this conflict

[@perekstra8728]

Completely agree, it totally goes against all real democratic values. It is great to have opposing views, if disagree or proven false argue/prove otherwise. Extremely dangerous to live in our own media bubble and make decisions from that.

[@wei270]

it is like everything the west stands for, they said they believe in one thing, but yet their action don't show any indication of what they said. They said they want free market, yet they run tariff and sanction, they said they believe in human right, yet there are Vietnam war and the second Iraq war, They said they follow international law yet they keep ignoring Isreal action in Gaza. At the end of the day they are just doing what ever they wanted because they are on top of the world.

[@wei270]

@Unknown Alien it does seem like it doesn't it.

[@ImperativeGames]

You can't deny that Nazi has power in Ukraine if you allow someone to show people in the West lots and lots of footage with Ukrainian Nazi parading in Kiev.

[@slayerhuh404]

You can still go to their website

[@Gozerthegozarian1984]

Headphone guys is so repetitive.

[@EvilSmonker]

I’m not sure if a war has ever been fought in such a way in which it is majority urban yet the cities remain largely intact

[@roman09121997]

well, because it isn't really a "war". It is a special millitary operation, regardless of how it sounds. In a "real war" first would be used big, B52 or Tu-95 type bombers, rocket salvos and they would wreck stuff up.

[@yhklimbgy2459]

@@roman09121997 Vietnam war was also called a police action, but that doesn't change the fact that it's a war. Soviet-Afghan war was called an international duty, but it was still a war. When american-led coalition invaded Iraq, they did not use large bombers to level the cities. They did fire 800 or so Tomahawk missiles on first day for SEAD purposes, however. Russia fired only around 100.

[@tavish4699]

@@yhklimbgy2459 in vietnam they did however destroy everything unlike the russians are doing its am matter of fact the russians arent shooting on civillian houses if its not justified

[@yhklimbgy2459]

@@tavish4699 yup yup, Bucha massacres by Pskov VDV and missile attacks on Vinnitsa, Kharkiv, Odessa and all other cities are not facts, just filthy propaganda /s

[@Marmocet]

This gentleman's analysis is an almost perfect inversion of reality. In reality, it's Ukraine that is taking enormous casualties and having trouble replacing them; it's Ukraine that is throwing barely-trained conscripts into battle; it's Ukraine that is running out of heavy weapons and ammunition; it's Ukraine whose military industrial capacity is in shambles; it is the Ukrainian military that has been indiscriminately shelling civilians (they've been lobbing shells indiscriminately into civilian areas in Donbas since 2014, whereas the Russian military has clearly been taking pains to avoid causing civilian casualties); it is the Ukrainian military that has been terrorizing civilians (as we saw the Azov guys did in Mariupol). The Ukrainian military has now clearly demonstrated its lack of capability at waging offensive operations at anything much past the company level. Their attempts at counterattacks at the battalion level and above reliably end in almost immediate failure. The Ukrainian military's strategy of defending strongpoints in the Donbas region to the point that they allow large numbers of their soldiers to be cut off and surrounded is incoherent. The Russians have been grinding down the Ukrainian military in a very one-sided manner for months, thanks primarily to Russia's overwhelming superiority in artillery, and we're now seeing the rate at which the Ukrainian military is disintegrating really starting to pick up. Even if NATO were to intervene in the conflict directly (which would be reckless and invite the prospect of nuclear Armageddon), Ukraine's ultimate defeat is inevitable. The Ukrainian government and their puppet masters in Washington should be negotiating an end to this war.

[@jeremyl862]

You do some fantastic content! And I love attention you bring to use and citing of sources. And I love when you do interviews with other experts.

[@MilitaryHistoryNotVisualized]

Glad you enjoy it!

[@rrfroginson]

@@MilitaryHistoryNotVisualized Yes, but this guest really is not pro-russia, nor independent.

[@doublehelix7880]

@@MilitaryHistoryNotVisualized Please, do not embarrass yourself with "experts" like that anymore. That guy is totally clueless. Not to mention his sources that are well-known fake factories - e.g. his "Russian source" CIT... Seriously - it is for your own good.

[@michaelsimarmata5880]

@@doublehelix7880 Maybe you can state your own sources here?:)

[@doublehelix7880]

@@michaelsimarmata5880 Both general staffs, as OSINT so far Rybar appears as most reliable, TikTok - a lot of raw data there, a bunch of Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels - practically all war correspondents have their own channels, even on YT sometimes you can find interesting things that slip the censorship. From the media - the entire spectrum, but I pay most attention to the intervies and the reports from the spot. Even fakes, where CNN presents destroyed Ukrainian T-64s as Russian tanks can give you grains of info. Overall, you can find information everywhere. And at the end - my brain to compile all the data and weed out the BS.

[@voggunn]

I understand that another issue to be taken into account in respect of the tube artillery is the wear on the tubes themselves after heavy usage in that they become ever more inaccurate if not sent back to have a factory reset ? With the claimed amount that Russia is using they would have reached this point even with a previously unused tube after 90 days.

[@fortusvictus8297]

Russian artillery has always been designed for rough use over accuracy. IIRC, the artillery doctrine actually accounts for worn-out barrels firing as rapidly as possible.

[@siddharthbirdi]

They can rotate their artillery brigades from other deployment areas to plug the gaps till these lieces get their barrels changed, thye can keep doing this indefinitely, Ukraine can't.

[@JDCheng]

@@siddharthbirdi And yet the video discussion itself is all about how the Russians haven't prioritized new barrel manufacturing. Swapping out a couple dozen a month isn't even close enough to wartime needs. Especially if the swapped barrels are ones pulled from long-term storage, which may or may not have been maintained.

[@lifessogood2995]

Ukraine is just begging for weapon!! What do we expect from them, well 45m with 👊 fist

[@daniels0376]

The Russian doctrine regarding military equipment has always been to make stuff which will work. Stuff which you can store for 40 years in the open field and when you need it, the engine will start, the breach will work, the ammo will fire. That comes at the cost of more refined aspects. Top priority is "it has to shoot" .

[@MatoVuc]

So let me get this straight: The russians, an artillery army is not capable of training it's artillery OFFICERS, who are presumably college level educated in their military universities, to do fucking medium level math? Under the reasoning that no one in russia capable of going to college wants to go into the military, even to be an officer? You can't be serious... How is anyone supposed to take this seriously after that? Ffs, I've seen drone footage of russians destroying an italian provided FH70 artillery piece with a 203mm shell that dropped within 5 meters of it on the first shot. I don't think a college educated officer who can't do math is capable of doing that... I don't like the cope thing, but this is wish-upon-a-star grade coping right here.

[@subhankarbaral9236]

Everyone knows all this is fucking stupid. Russians do teach mid level math to it's officers, I mean it's essential. No one is gonna believe these lies.

[@patriciusvunkempen102]

yeah the russians also supposedly do not have idk calculators for that stuff.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

@@patriciusvunkempen102 You're allowed to have calculators in most maths subjects in schools because they do not solve the problem for you. In college the only math classes that didn't allow calculators in exams were Calculus II and III because it's more about proofs and the calculations are simple, they just don't want you to bring solved exercises. Give a random 40 year old officer a calculator and tell him to guide artillery. The ability to calculate large numbers fast does not compensate for maths knowledge.

[@MatoVuc]

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD have you heard of artillery tables? Calculating artillery settings to fire at a given spot is not that hard. Even calculating the corrections according to the info from the spotters is only so much harder.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

@@MatoVuc It's not hard. It's impossible when you don't know what to do. So you always need people who know what to do to be around, you can't give that job to a random nobody who never trained in it.

[@lukebennett576]

is water wet

[@lostinpa-dadenduro7555]

Every Russian war starts with humiliating defeats, large losses and an officer corps riddled with incompetence and corruption. But, the longer a conflict goes on, the more dangerous they get.

[@Ninja-Alinja]

Very pertinent, certainly true with Napoleon, WW1 and 2. might even apply to the Great Northern War.

[@0witw047]

That’s not the case for *every* war. Most? Sure, but not all of them, not even all of the big ones. And removing corruption now isn’t going to change the fact that Russia has already lost thousands of vehicles and tens of thousands of men.

[@jezblades9913]

@@Ninja-Alinja ww1 and Crimea hhhhaaa ha ha

[@jaromor8808]

@@0witw047 sure buddy, because Zelensky said so 🤡

[@YiAtlas]

@@0witw047 Yeah, Russian reported they captured more than ten thousand Ukraine soldiers now, not including casualties. While Ukraine officials admitted they lost heavily on the frontline, and it is confirmed by Austrian military officers. That does not change the Russian lost for sure, but Ukraine lost heavily as well, and probably even more than Russians considered their lack of power and massive surrender in territory troops.

[@slartybartfarst55]

A really excellent, unbiased look at the situation. I love this channel for that balance

[@OtherWorldExplorers]

my expert opinion as an armchair general who knows absolutely nothing about battle tactics has no sources to cite has no education on the matter. I do have one irrefutable fact to state that which cannot be denied that which cannot be debunked which is, I haven't a clue what I'm talking about... That's why I watch his videos..

[@mattmccaughen8082]

LoL facts

[@t5ruxlee210]

@@mattmccaughen8082 The beginning of wisdom is to ask yourself: "Has fall harvesting been completed ?" "Have the troops been well trained ?" If the answer to both of those questions is YES: Then the third question is "What would Sun Tzu do now, if he was in charge ?"

[@mattmccaughen8082]

@@t5ruxlee210 u just broke my brain lol

[@OtherWorldExplorers]

@@t5ruxlee210 "What would Sun Tzu do?" Order pizza 🍕

[@roryross3878]

@@OtherWorldExplorers Like 5million pizzas?!

[@bastionblackperformance3804]

There is no current argument to be made that Ukraine is winning in any way other than worldwide public support.

[@brannkos]

Not worldwide. Just NATO country's and their allies.

[@bastionblackperformance3804]

@@brannkos find a country that isn't Belarus that's a vocal supporter of Russia in Ukraine.

[@brannkos]

@@bastionblackperformance3804 70% of all country's don't have any sanctions against Russia. Vocal support is less important.

[@bastionblackperformance3804]

@@brannkos the only countries that matter are the countries who actually have stuff. No cares if all the countries who don't buy Russian stuff or comprise a substantial export market to them refrain from sanctioning

[@brannkos]

@@bastionblackperformance3804 US and France are importing more russian oli then ever, US is also importing more uranium then ever. same is with China, India, Mexico and Brasil... Russian ruble is biggest against US dollar in last decade... Yes, I know that there is a downside in all this, but same is with EU, they will need 10-15 years to became independent completely of Russian oil and gas... Plus there are rare minerals, that is separate story... Anyway, with sanctions, and sanctions are complete only with Poland and some Baltic country's, Russia is making more money then ever... You could read in FT or Business Insider that sanctions are working only against EU, much less against Russia.

[@abdelra7man87]

So in your opinion is the situation changing by now?

[@squidysnose69]

Nope winning a battle is diffrent from winning a war. When the germans were at moscows doorstep it looked like Germany was winning. History says otherwise

[@abdelra7man87]

@@squidysnose69 Agree with you. But I wanted to hear his analysis about that.

[@squidysnose69]

@@abdelra7man87 انتضر للشتاء والوضع سوف يتغير

[@danielkol477]

No, merely executing a series of tactical retrogrades since late february, general Steinerenko's counterattack in autumn will sort everything out

[@Exodon2020]

And in Autumm: "My Vosht, Steinerenko was unable to mass sufficient forces to execute the attack. Thus, Steinerenko's attack didn't commence."

[@nikolajelovac1648]

1 year later - what do you say, B'lgarce?

[@jameswong7086]

Excellent interview. Thank you

[@cyberiankorninger1025]

The main strategic situation has not changed much. Nobody expected Ukraine to be able to hold the Donbas and still the Russian advance was slow. Sure they will finalize the East but Michael Kofman recently stated that its likely to be the last Russian major offensive in this war. That Russia will manage to complete its grip on Donbas does not mean they are winning the war. Ultimately the long term attrition battle will be decided by how long the Western support last or if they loose the political will to continue supporting UKR to force some compromise.

[@jiridrapal7512]

I don't understand how can Ukraine win attrition war when loss at lysycansk cost them like 40 000 men dead wounded captured.

[@moskon95]

Donbas is still not lost. Russia has to win a LOT of ground including two big cities until they have the donbas.

[@capt5656]

@@jiridrapal7512 There is literally 0 evidence to support that, what acid did you take this morning?

[@Biervampir92]

@@jiridrapal7512 Where do you get those fantasy numbers from? Ukrainians withdrew and weren't encircled.

[@TheMrFu]

Falling for the 3 days into Kiev psyop are we?

[@antipropo461]

Only since day one,any more questions?

[@RNB_lovr]

I sort of figured that the Russians would eventually grind them into the dust, learn from their mistakes, and have more favorable weather.

[@extramild1]

It appears not 🙂

[@milutinkrasevic1054]

I'd go with a different analyst. I think Stanimir does a disservice to you and to the credibility of your channel.

[@ronskullie9380]

I'm tired of hearing that the Russians are so bad and inept,but yet the Ukrainian are losing territory that they are trying at all cost to hold on to losing soldiers 9 to 1 Russian soldier, Ukraine have less than 700 Russian prisoners but the Russians have 10,000 Ukrainians prisoners, everything this guy say is lies.

[@redraptor9688]

Dude I swear. But then again, this isnt.....by any means.....the only example of the world being delusional and out of touch with reality.

[@divanniyexpert2821]

Short spoiler: Yes they are

[@gjk282]

That's not a valid abstract to this video.

[@jesseterrell2109]

I don’t think Ukraine has the ability to launch a big enough offensive to reclaim lost territory if Russia wants to keep it.

[@mattmccaughen8082]

Not yet but time will change that

[@MrHellknightimp]

@@mattmccaughen8082 cope

[@mojewjewjew4420]

@@mattmccaughen8082 cope and seethe

[@MarcinP2]

Yeah. Probably why they are not giving up ground despite "good advice" from Western Analysts (TM), thy will not be able to get it back and West is likely to stop help as soon as there is a chance for ceasefire.

[@mattmccaughen8082]

@@MarcinP2 u guys realize Ukraine is at the gates a kherson? LoL Russians won't hold ground like Ukrainians do look at the north when Russia lines break they will leave

[@SpiritBaker]

I think it wise to keep in mind that Russian public announcements are aimed at civilian population and maintaining an image of "everything is being under control". Publicly Announcing some sort of military program might be harmful from a stand point of maintaining "Homefront" in order. To that point Russian Military budget figures are no longer in public domain, and I've seen estimates of it's dramatic increase and rumors of military factories working in 3 shifts. Even if it's just rumors, I still find Stanimir analysis to be a bit lacking on this topic.

[@MrZlocktar]

It is true that some very specific equipment factories are working in 3 shifts. But only very few, which are all focused on assault and recon drones. Military budget hasn't changed, but rather was readjusted to the real face of modern war. That mean Russian Navy will abandon an additional series of six project 22160 patrol ships. Cause: it's trash unsuited for modern warfare because of absolute lack of AA defense. Ships were designed as patrol ships back in years, but with new times they are obsolete in face of modern warfare, so they were abandoned instantly. There are lot's of changes like this, that were revealed because of this conflict. Lot's of equipment turns out to be much better, than it was expected to be or even better than it was stated by media. The one and only new generation type of Anti Infantry tank in the world also known as Terminator, turns out to be so extremely effective at saving tanks from ATGM squad, that it will be produced in a much higher numbers from now on. Same goes for Tiger MRAP, and Typhoon MRAP vehicles which all have a green light now. I saw how tiger saved entire well equipped squad of veterans from mines without injures or casualties, and i can see why they want more of those. And Typhoon turns out to be so good, that if completely in closed mode, it apparently don't give a fuck about 120mm mortars. Su-57 also performing exceptionally well, and thus was green lighted and 2 more models was produced since conflict started and they are all in use now. In fact, if you know anything about Russia, wars is where they check their equipment and make notice of wrong engineering choices.

[@jonnygreen2602]

@@MrZlocktar nonsense 🤣 The Su-57 hasn't been used in this conflict because Russia don't have enough of them to make it worthwhile. Stop spreading lies.

[@Castragroup]

It was used

[@roryross3878]

I don't know what the standard was in Russia recently but in most peacetime factories almost around-the-clock production is normal, otherwise you effectively have unutilized production capacity... Certain types of equipment needs downtime for servicing and cleaning but often that can still be accomplished on a rotational basis in a 24 hour schedule....

[@MrZlocktar]

@@jonnygreen2602 Russia have 4 fully operational serial Su-57 right now. And they are using them to deploy X-59MK2 missiles in a conflict zone. They are also using 4 of them in order to keep testing of their new capabilities of network-centric warfare which was designed for a wing of 4 planes. Imagine 4 avionics complexes from each plane working with combined effectiveness of all 4, but for every plane in a network. It is very tempting to test this feature in a conflict zone and use this as a sort of a stealth capable AWACS from time to time.

[@MBBurchette]

@ 31:20, I highly recommend reading The Wages of Destruction by Adam Tooze. He sheds a great deal of light on all of the constraints that limited German Armament production and provides a cogent counter-argument to this statement by Mr. Dobrev.

[@colinsdad1]

Former USAF SSGT and Jet Mech here who is literally shaking his head over the Russians having to Depot their jet engines after 400 hours?!? WOW. Let alone them not having the infrastructure to train additional troops by burning through all their instructors and trainers already. Thank you for posting these videos Bernhard! Love getting these specific insights!

[@zakobruce]

you should know better

[@ljubomirculibrk4097]

For old soviet engines 500 working hours is normal.

[@jackholman5008]

@@ljubomirculibrk4097 and that's for specific components others fail earlier

[@colinsdad1]

Yes, I'm well aware that Russians don't have the tolerances on their engines the way our powerplants are built, but, 400 hours is a joke in comparison.

[@tomhenry897]

Even under the Soviets their equipment had shorter life spans the western armies

[@buddermonger2000]

17:09 That explains why now, 2 months after this video is released, that Russia has started to get north Korean artillery ammunition

[@noble1995]

Ah yes, lets spend 6 minutes discussing problems with Ukranian military, just mentioning ONE problem from PRO-UKRANIAN sources, like Danilyk. Then spend 50 minutes discussing Russsian military problems. VERY balanced review I see, not biased at all.

[@danilakovalev7669]

Actually you can summarize all problems of russian army and project it with 95% accuracy back to ukranian army. Actually there are two descendants of soviet army battling. One just smaller than the other. Yes, there are some details (one army has "national" battalions and another uses "wagner" mercs) but it is tiny details all in all. Bigger army has upper hand but majorly because it do not have disadvantage of rearmament to foreign types of tech.

[@scottcallow4593]

Dude.... He said right at the start he focuses on the Russian side so of course he spoke mostly about. Like what exactly are you complaining about that wasn't already advertised in advance?

[@noble1995]

@@scottcallow4593 When you tile the video "Is Ukraine losing the war?" Then go on to say say that you will "Provide various perspectives" and then go on talking about the Russians for 50 minutes and 6 minutes about Ukranians. It is not an analysis. If video was titled "Current problems of the Russian military in Ukraine" I would not complain. This is just deceptive.

[@flyingsword135]

Place your bet on which criminal oligarchy will win.

[@greybuckleton]

I hear the Orlan is actually in substantial supply, as it is possible to confiscate them from fire departments and police ect. Can't say I enjoyed the clearly biased "Expert" on this video. Rather a lot of unsupported statements.

[@williamromine5715]

The biggest difference as to the two sides, at least at this point is why the participants are fighting. The Russian is fighting because he is in the military and it's his "job". Nobody has invaded "Mother Russia". If Russia is not successful(whatever that means", he will go home and not much has changed. For the people of Ukraine, their home land has been invaded. Not only are soldiers dying, but so too mothers and children. Their cities are being destroyed. If Ukraine loses, they will be a conquered peoples, subject to foreign rule. That is a big difference in how much a people will fight and die. Of course, this is an immeasurable factor as to the outcome of the conflict, but it could be a big element in how the war ends. It appears to me at this point, that as long as the West continues to supply weapons, the people will resist the invasion. I am an American, but I do have a "dog in the fight", it's name is "Freedom'.

[@ДокторЯдо]

I think Russians should understand that losing this war would mean massacre of people in Donbass and Crimea, possibly even Southern regions of Russia. Starting this war was stupid on Putin's part, but Russians hoping their country loses are making even more stupid mistake. And Ukraine is under foreign rule anyway, just from a different side.

[@8wayz2shine]

You seem to be oblivious to the fact that 1/3rd to 1/2 of Ukraine is ethnically and culturally Russian. And has been such for centuries. For a lot of russians this is more of a war of liberation and reclaiming their traditional lands. If you want an Anglo-centric comparison, picture Ireland trying to fight the UK for Northern Ireland. In the territory of Northern Ireland there are both royalists and republicans. Hence why even the local population is welcoming of the russian advances, at least some of them.

[@williamromine5715]

@@8wayz2shine Have you seen great mobs of Ukrainians demonstrating against the Ukraine government? With all the Western journalists in the country, the government wouldn't dare keep them from demonstrating. Any feeling of Russian background probably went away when Russia started shelling the cities, killing civilians and destroying homes, factories and businesses where people lived and worked. I was neither ignoring nor unaware of the historical connections with the Russian connection. If you go back far enough, Ukraine was the dominant power in the region, and Moscow was a backwater place of mud huts. The Mongols put paid to that demography, of course.

[@Asghaad]

@@8wayz2shine and Russia turned all those against it by leveling Mariupol - a city of ethnic russians - to the ground ... you are just parrotting what russians hoped would take place in the initial attack and found that Ukraine stands AGAINST theyr aggression ... at this point with that many Ukrainian civilians getting killed there is basically no support for them in the populace.

[@freeshaable]

@@Asghaad sneed

[@zakshadsai]

Is Ukraine losing? Short answer, yes. Long answer, yeeeeeeeeees......

[@artyom5659]

Ukraine has already lost, the WEF and UN are crying.

[@MrGhostTube]

If its all about artillery then it's already over for Ukraine. Seems like an odd choice for a 'challenge' given that the training issue is worse for the Ukrainians because they are starting from scratch with new systems. Mixed systems. The rest of the talk about Ukraine having an artillery advantage is laughable tbf.

[@facundolamas950]

I might add that the mixed artillery pieces you mention scream 'logistical nightmare' too.

[@dindu551]

This anti Russian shill is a bookworm. He's probably never shot a gun or camped in the woods. Opinion discarded.

[@target844]

@@facundolamas950 The mixed part fora Ukraine do result in logistical problem. But even if they have got lots of different artillery systems from the west for Howitzer it is the same 155mm NATO ammunition for many different systems. They have and will get some 105mm artillery to so one extra ammunition caliber. Lots of different 155mm systems will result in more logistic problems for spare parts for the artillery but not for the ammunition.

[@thanakonpraepanich4284]

So how would Zelensky answer his creditors how did he wasted all the money and hardware with nothing to show for? He worked with banks and hedge funds before he enter politics so he should see this question coming.

[@WereScrib]

@@thanakonpraepanich4284 I mean, eroding the Russian military is actually what people gave him the hardware to do, and the US signed a Lend Lease deal which is basically freebies.

[@billykorando6820]

I’m glad agency within Ukraine, Russia, and other nearby actors was discussed. It always bothers me when discussing some regions/countries the people/countries there are only *acted upon* and never discussed as though they have their own agency. It often reads to me, if unintentionally as a very imperialist/suprematist mindset.

[@markalexander774]

Ukraine has been losing this war since the beginning. Inflicting heavy casualties on your opponent is irrelevant if they can take it and if they do not really care. The social media hype behind Ukraine has been cringe.

[@artyom5659]

Russia has only lost 2,307 troops while Ukraine has lost over 83,000 men. This is because they only arm their men with AK and just tell them to run at lines. I play a lot of hoi4 and looking at Donbas it seams like Ukraine is desperate and scraping the barrel and sending 12yo to the front line, the war will be over my Christmas and Russia will liberate all of Ukraine from the CIA funded regime by Christmas

[@johndonaldson3619]

*Battles don't win wars - Logistics win wars*

[@davidty2006]

Mhm. Every truck makes a difference. And last i checked russians lost quite a few trucks over 300 kamaz 6x6 alone.

[@sirmoke9646]

But more importantly the Ukies getting turned into minced meat by the hundreds each day wins this war.

[@johndonaldson3619]

@@sirmoke9646 EVEN more importantly the Russians getting turned into minced meat by the hundreds each day wins this war.

[@christopherbrodie6987]

Before I even listen or watch I have to tell you I love your analysis. I have been waiting for you to comment on Ukraine as I think you are one of the best out there. I will comment after I have seen your contribution what I think of this.

[@17sapun]

Russian Army is basically destroying a Fully Mobilized, Modern, Western trained and equipped Ukrainian Army with an expeditionary force from a peacetime army. I'd say Ukraine has been in trouble since the start. More so because all those involved didn't and still don't recognize the threat.

[@internetw4nk3r74]

You know i can forgive these 'analysts' up to the 2 months mark. They can be so bias, so prejudiced, it's fine really but they should know limit in denying hard truths. Yet they don't learn anything. These are simply absent minded bozos being watched by clueless sheeps.

[@marnixbrugmans4181]

Yes, because most Western armies are armed with T64 tanks and jets that are considered 30 years out of date. And the "expeditionary army" was expeditioning right next to their own border. Take a guess a what the deepest is Russia penetrated Ukraine held territory since the start of the conflict end of Feb? Expeditionary means away from your own territory. Peacetime army, I'll agree with, but also the majority of the ground combat forces of what was considered the 2nd most powerful military power in the world

[@internetw4nk3r74]

@@marnixbrugmans4181 you sounds somewhat adept on military thingies. You must understand numbers. Maybe you could take a guess on the number of russian troops being comitted into this war, and the ukrainians too. Cmon, enlight me.

[@marnixbrugmans4181]

@@internetw4nk3r74 sure, from the best estimates we have available, Russia had about 100 to 120k ground forces allocated to the war at the start, with about 5-10k air force and about 20k naval forces (counting naval infantry and black see fleet + immediate support troops for all elements) this brings us to about 115k to 150k Russian troops on frontline or immediate support (not counting deeper logistics in Russia). Added to this were LPR and DPR forces, about 45-60k total for an estimate of 160k to 210k total on the Russian side. I'm not counting Chechens, Wagner or Rosgvardia here, way too little data to take a guess of how many we're talking about. On the Ukrainian side, the total military force of Ukraine was about 200k. To that you could add about 50k border guard, generally way lighter armed and less trained (more comparable to the Rosgvardia then the regular military of each country) That's at the start of the war, today the estimate is way more difficult to make, but I'll make an outline without going for any real estimates: Russia has been actively looking for more contract soldiers, offering sign up bonuses and upping the max age limit. Unclear whether this covers their losses so far or provides additional manpower. Several regular army units not involved at the start of the conflict have also been identified (notably at leat detachments from the "military camp" units in Georgia and Azerbaijan. On the Ukrainian side, they have completed their 3d round of mobilisation, with an estimated 80-120k people per round (again, very hard to estimate) additionally, the TDF units have been mobilised (which is a separate structure). This could mean that Ukraine potentially has about 500-700k troops under arms, not counting losses, with the majority of those in training or TDF. Ukraines main struggle is equipping all of these troops to anything more than light infantry level. Hope this at least gives you some answers

[@sirmoke9646]

@@marnixbrugmans4181 They had at least a dozen different "game changer" weapon systems delivered and the ghost of Keeev will wipe out the whole VDV.

[@midnightoverlord9365]

The problem is, most of the Western people have a really skewed picture of the Russian/Soviet military. The reason is twofold. Firstly, there's a similar issue to the perception of Wermacht. When people imagine it, they think of images presented by Leni Riefenstahl and such. The image of Soviet/Russian army is created in a similar way. Secondly, it was needed to present the Russians/Soviets as highly organized, efficient to prop up the Western militaries. The media also helped, since Russians/Soviets were a convenient villain to portray. And you need to have a villain that's strong, so that the characters could overcome the odds by defeating him. So, in the eyes of the Westerners Russia/USSR is a scary monolith, a state which machinery serves a single purpose - defeating an enemy. In truth, Soviet military officers (and later the Russian one) were scared shitless of a war with NATO and understood perfectly their true level of preperation. Just read any of the Russian/Soviet jokes about the army. The main activity of the soldiers is building a dacha for a colonel or painting grass (not a figure of speech). Watch the TV show "Soldiers" from the aughts, which is literally a propaganda for the Russian military. Yet still, it presents praporshiks drinking until blackouts and stealing fuel from the APCs. The main characters are just following stupid dedovishina rituals instead of doing anything military related. And that's what the Russians chose to present to their populace. The reality is obviously muuuch worse. And it all came to light when they started a big war. Obviously it did. And listen to what the Russian nationalists themselves are saying. Strelkov (FSB colonel and former DPR leader) is screaming for mobilisation, calling for Shoigu to leave for incompetence and humiliating defeats. You guys would call what he says 'western propaganda' if you knew Russian. Yet it was a man who literally started the Donbass war back in 2014. And even despite it all, the fact that Russia managed to capture Lysychansk on a fifth month of the war is fucking embarrassing. And while it's dear to my heart - I spent a lot of my childhood in Severodonetsk. It is not Ukraine's powerhouse as many of you seem to think. The industry there was either subsidiesed or rotting. The Azot plant in Severodonetsk was working at 10% of its capacity at best! Most of the mines were either steadily closing since the 90s, kept as a corruption scheme by the oligarchs or were opened illegally to sell its produce to the black market. For most of Ukrainian independence, Donbas was a money sink for the state. I do not mean that we should give it up, of course - but that's the truth. Just like all of the other European states, Ukraine is a service economy. The profitable sectors were agriculture and IT (which was booming before the war at 30%+ growth each year).

[@jamesjackovich5886]

During WWII the US gave Soviet Russia 11.8 billion dollars in aid ( today would be 180 billion) through the Soviet lend-lease program 13,000 tanks, 14,000 planes 400,000 jeeps and trucks 4.5 million tons of food, now we're doing the same thing for Ukraine what a crazy world, when the rest of the world is threatened with nuclear destruction by one man demanding to bomb the hell out of Ukraine or else something has to be done all the young connected people in this world want are more freedoms more opportunities and better paying jobs so in 30 years when we're all dead I'm hoping for a better world 🌎

[@gigacanno750]

Well holy shit. Props for all this detail. You have my respoect.

[@2nolhta]

"The profitable sectors were agriculture and IT" - sad state of the former industry powerhouse of the Soviet Union. Also, neither can feed the guns.

[@gigacanno750]

@@2nolhta What's more important? Feeding the guns, or feeding the people feeding the guns?

[@2nolhta]

@@gigacanno750 Of course feeding the guns, since one well-feed gun kills hundreds of well-feed people on the other side. See any trench walkthrough in the Russian Telegram sector.

[@Syndie702]

Dang those first three sources really aged like milk lmao

[@jspirmann]

I wonder how many people going crazy in the comments actually took the time to watch the entire video. I understand it is an hour long and most people have 5 second attention spans, but you would need to watch the entire video to really understand MHV's explanation.

[@bombie1138]

paying attention is expensive,. send me the bill

[@yournamehere9150]

Comments would be crazier if most people knew who Murz is, the topic of him being taken seriously would be fascinating.

[@thomasbernecky2078]

so, just asking, Oberst Reisner, how many (PzH 2000) SP artillery units has Germany sent to Ukraine now? Seven? and 5000 helmets?

[@aitorrodriguez9070]

A very good vídeo, keep up with the good work!!! Please more vídeos like this and the other about the black sea

[@sargonassarg4356]

When you're getting Russian trolls populating garbage in the comments section, then you know you've hit a nerve. One thing I find amusing is that Russia doesn't consider Ukraine a existential threat but yet they threaten nukes every second week.

[@LjubomirLjubojevic]

Western politicians are at the momont full of zealots that think Russia could not flood them with nuclear warheads, they thin M.A.D. is thing of the past. Therefore it is crucial to deter zealots influence on the general public. Keeping population afraid of mutually destructive nuclear war will keep zealots from doing rash things. It is not much needed for start of nuclear exchange even during peace, not to mention war where one side is arming enemy of the other side...

[@sargonassarg4356]

​@@LjubomirLjubojevic By deter influence on the general public, you mean provide the world with truth against the backdrop of Russian lies? And how do we know when a Russian is lying? When his lips are moving. Do you know what happens when the boy cries wolf too often? People will ignore him. enamored Populations outside of Russia are so sick of Putin flexing the nuclear lever that they just say, "Fuck it. If Putin wants to wipe out the world and Russia with it, fine. That's better than appeasing one crazy guy who is dying of cancer and is willing to sacrifice all of Russia's future as a major player on the world stage just for his ego".

[@looinrims]

Ukraine isn’t a war but Putin went around saying “hypersonic weapons from Ukraine could hit Moscow in 7 minutes!” Because there’s so many of those lol

[@jaredmcfadden7793]

Poland will have Ukraine’s back for as long as this war takes and won’t back down from Russia. It sucks that the west is losing interest, but Ukraine will never be fighting alone

[@usun_current5786]

Good, grind down Poland as well

[@jimmybold5903]

Lol Im sure the Russians are shaking in fear about Poland, like the Germans did in 1939 - before they just took the country in merely 3 weeks like a walk in the park 🤣🤣🤣

[@mikewallis2987]

Ukraine has fallen.

[@billosby9997]

That's why pollack jokes are a thing.

[@Crackshotsteph]

The US and Europe's economies aren't doing well.

[@Llkc60]

If you don't have 55 mins: Russian army sucks, bad quality soldiers, but they have the numbers in equipment and ammunition. Ukraine fights well but doesn't have enough weapons so the slow incremental advance will be almost impossible to stop

[@SuperLeosid]

"USSR will fall in four months." UK in 1941. *Source* “Russia Will Assuredly Be Defeated”: Anglo-American Government Assessments of Soviet War Potential before Operation Barbarossa, The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 25:2 (2012) by Martin Kahn, page 220. "Russians will collapse tomorrow." - UK in 2022. LMAO. What's with the British and a lack of good estimates?

[@ElGrandoCaymano]

Fake news. Link for 2022?

[@SuperLeosid]

@@ElGrandoCaymano The video. Somewhere in the beginning. The line I used isn't full context though, it went more like,"The UK claimed that the Russians will collapse tomorrow. But they didn't."

[@ElGrandoCaymano]

@@SuperLeosid Again this is incorrect and I can't see where the UK MOD implied this. All their past statements are on Twitter. They just seem to say most of 80% of Russian TCGs are engaged or in country. If they thought Russia was going to collapse, they wouldn't keep sending weapons and training long-range Ukrainian artillery teams. Note too, the British don't seem as concerned whether the Ukrainians use them as offensive weapons to fire into Russia.

[@leewilliams6070]

Do Germans not understand the definition of losing? Like you can't remember losing from 1942 until you finally lost in 45. Losing is when the other side is beating you until you have nothing left to lose and then you have lost. Ukraine is losing in a big way. Russia will dictate the terms of unconditional surrender. You remember what unconditional surrender means don't you?

[@basilhanas8453]

They are high on Russophobia and copium. Ukraine will just make strategic withdrawal back to Russian Empire..

[@tompanda1984]

Colonel/ Doctor Reisner is great at conveying information across in a straightforward manner. I am glad your sources are legitimate and factual (as always) and not just what some nut says. Great analysis and food for thought.

[@worththesqueeze1386]

Solid, solid, and solid. Well done.

[@tallshort1849]

Excellent video chaps

[@cliffordnelson8454]

The title has little to do with the subject. Maybe should say how Russia is failing while winning.

[@pierQRzt180]

When I hear "they are planning for weeks and not for a long war" it sounds like companies and technical debt, when there is no mid-long terms plan.

[@stanley1554]

@ 8:42 ALL modern military's recruit from the lower strata of society. That's been a feature of professional military since the beginning of time! Do you remember when slaves were gladiators in Rome and among the most skilled warriors, my point!

[@isldstormhawaii4084]

I believe the expert was referring to the fact that these lower educated recruits are not as good in the mathematics needed to be effective artillery men and correcting battery barrages that someone that is going to university is educated in. I think you are mistaken to focus on who he is talking about vs why he is talking about it.

[@majormoolah5056]

It was a good interview. But what we should be asking ourselves is the state of the Ukrainian military and how that compares to the Russians. Ukrainians have also been placing a tremendous burden on their best professionals from the beginning and putting them into the fire. The attrition among them has been such that territorial defence units have been taking a bigger role. Soviet-style ammunition, what most of the Ukrainian artillery uses, has also been basically depleted and NATO allies have also depleted their stores as well. Russians have been using the separatist militias and other such troops in the most intense urban battles. The more elite naval infantry, airborne units and Wagner contractors have then been assembled into more elite formations that seize upon breakthrough openings. We have not seen Russian formations collapse on the large scale either. Despite all their many catastrophic problems and all the institutional rot, Russian military is still going. So where does that leave us? The biggest question is in the future: can the Ukrainians perform a strategic-level counteroffensive that will give them a significant victory? Because if they cannot and they can only defend, then the borders are going to be where the Russian military stops, no matter how unjust that is. Ukraine needs to pull their more important professionals away from the frontline and train and re-equip them for that. Which is time the Russians do not want to give. I think the general situation is somewhat better for the Russians than it has been thus far, sad as I am to say. I want Ukraine to triumph, but we should not let our hearts blind us.

[@RussiasSufferingInUkraine]

Time will tell.

[@fortusvictus8297]

Agreed, Ukraine had an arguable advantage in their regular army and especially special forces elements because they have had training and support for years now from NATO. But they are very dependent on them just from the info we get from the lines, nearly all are from special forces or airborne units (generally the top quality in any army). Russia can, and has, rotated units in and out of the front to replenish and rejoin the fight. Ukraine does not seem to have that option... Add to that the de facto civil war going on inside Ukraine during all of this and things get ugly fast.

[@majormoolah5056]

@@fortusvictus8297 There is no civil war in Ukraine since the two peoples republics are just Russian proxies no other nation has recognised. Russia has also been terrible at rotating their better units. Instead they throw them together into ad hoc formations which is a terrible long term solution.

[@fortusvictus8297]

@@majormoolah5056 Yeah that's the political situation, but in reality, there ARE many many people in those regions who do not identify as Ukrainian. That has always complicated the mess. Prior to the outbreak of this war, Ukraine held a vote in those regions and something like 40% said they wanted to be part of Russia. I doubt those people simply disappeared. Or that the people currently there are resisting or care about Russian occupation in any way.

[@perekstra8728]

Pending on where and when you are looking at, the people who do not identify as Ukrainians are in the high 60%. Much higher in the areas which are fought over. The Ukrainian ones have left, and Russian leaning stays( either not allowed to leave, or stay wait for ^liberation^). Please check up journalists like Patric Lancaster to get a more balanced view on what’s happening on the ground.

[@antyspi4466]

I don´t trust Stanimir. He paints the same narrative as heard from certain groups with a vested interest: "Russia is weak, you just have to hold on a little bit more and then the Russian army is going to fall apart, the Ukrainian army is better in several areas." I disliked when he he talked about the professionalism of the Russian army and snuck in comparisons for conscripts, who are (with some exceptions) not part of this invasion. I also read about the statement of a Russian official, that the production of a certain missile had reached full wartime capacity. That doesn´t fit with Stanimir´s claim that the Russians wouldn´t gear up for war. He depicts the Russian leadership as people who are too stupid to see what they got themselves into and to make the appropriate decisions. Again, that doesn´t fit with statements of the Russian leadership and the unfolding events. Btw, did I miss the part of the video where they talked about the professional Ukrainian military and their equipment get torn to shreds and Kiev now sending undertrained and underequipped to the frontlines? I mean, even if the Russian leadership would mismanage the replenishment strategy, Ukraine reaches the bottom of the barrel much faster (though I admit, they still have more warm bodies to throw at the problem at the moment).

[@perekstra8728]

TM agree with nearly all your points, I’d look like Russia is now doing a limited war on the ground, and are gradually winning that. Same time they looks like surviving in the economic war the west launched with their massive sanctions. The west is also suffering, so right now Russia looks to be surviving/winning I both wars which all parties are suffering. Ukraine people are for sure loosing.

[@chadplow824]

His nose indicates he’s untrustworthy.

[@islandtimegaming2794]

Ukraine put up a solid fight in the beginning but it definitely looks like they can't keep up anymore,bodies to the grinder to keep the bleeding slow.

[@ricmora4482]

In the US military, artillery is referred to as the King of Battle. Comparing US infantry to Russian artillery is an "apples to oranges" approach, and can be misleading. Indirect fires are every bit as important to the US military on the battle field. We study the Air-Land Battle doctrine at all leadership academy levels.

[@jakelexington7610]

All militaries call artillety the queen of battle/war

[@Asghaad]

except for US the king of the battle switched to airforce yes indirect fire weapons are still important but are more delegated as a support force following the ground troops whereas airforce does that AND deep incursion strikes, antiair, close air support, SEAD etc etc ...

[@ricmora4482]

@@jakelexington7610 All militaries except the US, where Infantry is the Queen of Battle. Ask a grunt, they'll get you squared away.

[@stefanpavlov6370]

And my countryman, Stanimir is outstretching hinself. Rusophobia just goes so far. For example he points out the lack of russian plans to mobilize and to rearm as a weakness. Someone might point out, that if Russia captures Donbass without mobilization and without massive rearmament - that is a sign of strength. Let's wish Stanimir to "cope and seethe", to go back to objective analysis as soon as possible.

[@ivanbardov]

Sorry, but this guy is absolutely biased. I expected some independed neutral analysis, but this feels far from it. Sure, he did great by checking many sources in local media about a lot of stuff, no denying that. But it's the second video I see with him as a guest, and his whole narrative is the same: Russia was undeprepared, army is shortstaffed and not funded properly, Russia did this wrong, Russia did that wrong. Of course, that might be true and probably is true. That would be fine IF the title was "what Putin did wrong" or something. But the title is quite different. Also are they're only bad things to say or they managed to achieve something? Also what about other parties in this war, well, like Ukraine maybe? Are they totally prepared, fully staffed and do everything by the book, perform well in general? However, if you listen to such people you may think that Ukrainians should be near Moscow already or even Vladivostok. But they're not. Any army has problems, some have more than others, but some still prevail. You can google and find how US' soldiers (best equipped and best funded army in the world) complained about many things in recent years. So what? It's not like were losing anyway, but the list of complaints about various things both in the field and not was very long.

[@Whangareitaiji3138]

What you don't seem to know is that his sources are Russian. He reads Russian newspapers (the local ones). And he listens to Russian news - the local as well as State.

[@Imblyatman]

This is a copium video

[@milaro222]

Apparently, the main task of this alleged expert is to inspire the Ukrainians so that they continue to fight indefinitely, believing that Russia will run out of weapons any day, given that he cannot possibly know how many UAVs, barrels, shells and other equipment Russia has.

[@ivanbardov]

@@Whangareitaiji3138 I figured that. And you can see that I mentioned it in my comment about checking local media. And the thing is I do read, hear and see Russian news too and not only official, but a lot of other opinions and of course the content from those who are on the frontlines speaking about the problems and how they're doing - there are so many telegram channels now for any taste. But that's not the point. My comment is about another issue. Stanimir absolutely enjoys talking about how poorly trained / equipped etc Russian army is. Okay, his choice. But check the video title. Sure, it is related, no doubt. But talking almost exclusive about how Russia sucks while there are another countries in this fight (let's say Ukraine, right?) is kinda strange. And of course is not what I would call a neutral analysis.

[@jb-xc4oh]

Its annoying listening to that biased nonsense it bears no resemblance to the reality on the battlefield.

[@GSicKz]

why is this not available as a podcast feed?

[@MilitaryHistoryNotVisualized]

Had a podcast got less views/listens and it costs extra time and money so it is gone.