What Happens If We Can't Leave Earth?

One day our destiny may take us to the stars, but what happens if we find we are unable, or unwilling, to journey to new worlds, and remain only on Earth?
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Credits:
What Happens If We Can't Leave Earth?
Science & Futurism with Isaac Arthur
Episode 364, October 13, 2022
Produced & Narrated by Isaac Arthur
Written By:
Isaac Arthur
Editors:
Dillon Olander
Cover Art by:
Jakub Grygier www.artstation...
Graphics by:
Darth Biomech
Sergio Botero
Music Courtesy of Epidemic Sound epidemicsound.c...

[@theobserver9131]

One thing I don't understand is that so many people seem to think that going to space and taking care of the earth are mutually exclusive. That we have to choose one or the other, is a false dichotomy. Indeed, they can, and usually do, compliment each other.

[@SoloRenegade]

but even if we took care of the earth, it will still die eventually

[@chromicm6686]

@@SoloRenegade Exactly, which means our future and that of all other life on earth is the stars.

[@jackl4laughs]

Agreed. Most people fall into a basic zero sum game mindset, which provides the mutually exclusive ideology that many people ascribe to a wide array of topics like this that don't need it. There are major economic opportunities on earth and in the solar system, and it doesn't make sense to assume we're just leaving earth when we really have no guarantee that we could actually survive on any other planet without massive terraforming projects.

[@ains2904]

The reason why it's a real dichotomy is because the people with power who are currently destroying the earth will be absolved of all consequences or greatly rewarded as they spend their vast fortunes to leave earth with literal armies of practical slaves while leaving most of their subordinates to continue to exploit earth and send the profits to their bosses on Mars. If you think that this is far fetched, I should remind you that this is what western companies already do in the global south. Devil's advocate and all that.

[@theobserver9131]

People who really care about earth should encourage space exploration. The more places we have to go, the less damage we will do to this beautiful gem of a planet.

[@lanebowles8170]

This premise reminds me of Isaac Asimov's Robot Trilogy with Elijah Baley and R. Daneel Olivaw, as earthmen are forbidden from leaving the Solar System by the Spacers and basically confine themselves to Earth alone, and to underground mega-cities in particular in an effort make their resources stretch.

[@ADobbin1]

If I recall the idea was to keep earth's problems on earth and away from "Paradise" but the spacers wound up with all of earth's problems and more anyway. I might be misremembering since its been a while since I read the books.

[@chriskeach1908]

Or Peter F Hamiltons Prime species from the book Pandora's Star, that are so belligerent they get their solar system put behind a forcefield by .... space hippies.

[@notahouse]

Did you ever see the mini series "Childhood Ends", maybe we aren't meant to leave?

[@spaceman081447]

@@notahouse As is usually the case, the book (you remember those, right?), tells the story better and in much greater detail.

[@notahouse]

@spaceman081447 At 55, yes I do. Never heard of the book until the series. So tell me is the ending in the book different and we are meant to leave?

[@rfak7696]

No matter how bleak the scenario might be, Isaac can always give us hope

[@user-dc6pm3mc4b]

whats bleak about earth the only place with known intelligent life its literally the most promising and spectacular place we have found as humanity for humanity

[@yapflipthegrunt4687]

@@user-dc6pm3mc4b we're fucked

[@devongarden3485]

The line about the loss historical things not diminishing them, simply making the future poorer, is a fantastic one.

[@donnyprocs]

For real, that was beautiful

[@UpperDarbyDetailing]

I'd love to see another episode like this, but if we can't leave the *system*.

[@yorneustein7851]

Most realstic scenario

[@UpperDarbyDetailing]

@@yorneustein7851 yeah, we really DON'T know if we can get through the bow shock. In fact, it's a Fermi paradox solution. No civ gets above k2 because we can't leave our systems.

[@UpperDarbyDetailing]

@@General12th Are you sure? No, of course you aren't, because we've never been there. There are theories that gravity is a bit... "funky".

[@joeleek9976]

See file on The Expanse.

[@MAD-SKILLZ]

@@UpperDarbyDetailing The region of bow shock has a density measured in *atoms* per cubic centimeter. Better than all laboratory vacuums. Some evidence suggests the sun isn't even fast enough to generate a proper "bow shock". A few atoms of difference isn't going to stop a megatonne vessel moving at quarter-lightspeed.

[@XxxionxX]

I watch this show from time to time and I put a lot of faith in Arthur's words. When he said that we have a future even if we don't leave... I really needed to hear that.

[@firetee20]

I love the way this guy says "Earth". It makes me smile everytime 😊

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

Yep. Me too. I also really like his "critters"

[@finneylane4235]

You created a masterpiece of poetic prose with this episode. Octavia Butler wrote a sci-fi series about a species of "gene collectors" who travelled world to world, hybridizing themselves with the species they found. They came to Earth and in one intimate conversation with one of them, a human asked privately, "Are we going to make it? I mean, as a species?" and the alien's answer was shocking. He said, "in all the travels through the galaxy we've done, we have never encountered a species that has two of your traits, that did not destroy itself." "What are those traits?" "You are both intelligent and hierarchical."

[@YodaWhat]

LOL. Any creatures lacking WISDOM, maybe. Lacking intelligence is itself deadly, at least in the long term. Just ask the dinosaurs! Oh, wait, you CAN'T.

[@cosmictreason2242]

Ironic, because those two traits, as well as creativity, are essential elements of our nature according to God, and by no means the reason why we would decay - that would be immorality, which is not Warren m essential to us

[@spaceman081447]

@@YodaWhat The dinosaurs didn't die because of lack of intelligence. After all, if something like the Chicxulub impactor were to hit today, the human race would not be able to stop it. And I assume that you would consider humans to be intelligent. They died because the consequences of the asteroid collision were too great, too widespread, and too long-term for them to adapt.

[@TheHunted385]

You've completely turned me form a pessimist to an optimist with your channel Isaac. I finally can hope for goodness in the future instead of only taking in the bad that most Media platforms shove down our throats every day, its refreshing. Thank you. Its such a powerful thing to convince people (severe humanists at that) who thought humanity was doomed that technology just might save us, or in fact, most likely will. I am a historian who intends on becoming a teacher soon. Your existence means that I will be doing so with an optimist point of view, instead of one simply trying to "slow the fire", and for this, honestly, I am grateful.

[@mikolajtrzeciecki1188]

@C K You are right on one point: the temperature in the High Middle Ages in Europe was higher than it is now. And you know what? It was when the civilization and progress restarted. It is politicians and big corpo who will send us back to feudalism, which is the death of any progress, regardless if the temperature is 2 degrees higher or lower.

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

@C K There is an ice age as well as a few super-Carrington events scheduled for not terribly far ahead regardless. We can either industrialize thoroughly enough to survive them or lose everything.

[@alaunaenpunto3690]

Humanists seek to merge man with technology in some abominable attempt at artificial apotheosis. I don't think you'll have seen issue convincing them.

[@alaunaenpunto3690]

@@jengleheimerschmitt7941 lose everything

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

@@narxes ... I think the middle ages was a paradise compared to most of humanity. This last couple hundred years has been entierly off the charts. I don't think it would be terribly difficult for us to lose it all.

[@jim6161612000]

Been watching your episodes for years, Issac. Thanks for your hard work

[@Hiram1000]

Please tell me you write code.

[@cannonfodder4376]

Just loved your ending speech. 😍😍😊😊Wonderful video as always Isaac.

[@stuleathers809]

I only discovered your channel recently but I have to say I so enjoy your subjects, views, and videos. Thank you.

[@stuleathers809]

Also, great graphics!

[@MarsStarcruiser]

He has so many great videos, I’ve went back and run through all his playlist in my spare time at work, more so like a podcast than always watching.

[@rccrazy]

"All of this was for nothing, unless we go to the stars" so beautiful yet so scary🥲 We evolved with exploration front and centre, before our big bright 🌞 expires we will have found a new place to call home😊

[@garethbaus5471]

The earth would become unliveable long before the sun dies.

[@rccrazy]

@@garethbaus5471 yeah I know, but we could be travelling for millions of years after the earth has been consumed before we actually settle somewhere else😉

[@mopnem]

@@garethbaus5471 Thank you. I cringe so hard when people use the sun as a “depressing” concept. It’s like they’re trying to be deep but instead are showcasing their lack of actual research into that which they’re using to try to make a point. Not saying this is op tho.

[@garethbaus5471]

@@rccrazy If we don't form a stable society capable of colonizing outside the solar system(the premise of this video) we will die when the earth is unliveable possibly earlier.

[@maltheopia]

@@mopnem The death of the sun and death of the Earth represent the same thing: a time limit for non-intelligent, non-technological life absent intelligent intervention. And since either event is so far in the future as to be meaningless for our day-to-day future, it's pointless trying to measure the exact amount of horror either inevitability will cause.

[@pamelal7487]

I've been a subscriber for some time now while I don't normally leave comments something that I've noticed about you stood out in neon this time around and I really wanted to say that when you hit philosophy mode it is truly a thing of beauty. Thank you.

[@jacksavere6988]

This episode is... beautiful. That word doesn’t typically come to mind when watching your videos. Usually the word is “fascinating” but.. not this time❤️

[@libertyjones1451]

"Maybe the real intergalactic journey was the friends we made here on Earth all along." Isaac Arthur, probably.

[@indigowest6894]

16:50 onwards brought a genuine tear to my eye. Cheers to you, Isaac, and may your name still be remembered on the Last Day of the Universe!

[@deus_ex_machina_]

Especially the lines _"This is not a future to be depressed about, anymore than a person should lament having a million dollars, because someone suggested they might make billions, and a million is all that materialized"_ And the magnum opus, _"But I don't think the measure of a man is only how tall his statue is or how long his tale is remembered, and the same for all humanity. Our forgotten and unrecorded civilizations are our loss, not theirs, and we are made less by not knowing them; and while it would be a great shame if a fire burnt every copy of Shakespeare or Tennyson or Mozart or Bach, it doesn't make their works any less grand, it just makes the world that follows poorer. And if the sun burns up our world with it, then it is no loss to us today, merely to those on that day and on all the tomorrows that follow on some other world we never got to see"_

[@lurchibold]

Isaac, I have absolutely loved your channel for years and if you have done nothing else, you have always sparked my imagination, like the great man himself said: "Intelligence is useless without the imagination to use it", (brownie points to anyone who can guess who said it lol).

[@mordet2]

probably sun tzu, seeing how he seems to have said so many different things.

[@lurchibold]

@@mordet2 nope, nice guess tho

[@grizzlyhamster]

Sounds like Asimov or Sagan.

[@lurchibold]

@@grizzlyhamster Another two great guesses, however no.

[@lurchibold]

This quote was taken from the great prof. Albert Einstein.

[@PhilipMurphy8Extra]

So great to hear from Issac for sure, The man of science.

[@carminedesanto6746]

That scene from B5 still brings a tear to my eye 🥲

[@linesided]

Really beautifully written episode. Thank you.

[@RoadRanger314]

I've been watching your channel since the beginning Isaac. I know you were in the Army. 13A I believe. I was 11HE9. If it wasn't for Asimov and the Foundation I would have sectioned 8 over there and on the quiet nights here I would have been a regular at the VA if it wasn't for your channel. Thank you brother.

[@xTBCGx]

I like the idea of Earth as like Rome in the middle ages. The capitol of the empire was Constantinople for the geographic benefits. I think if we ended up going to the stars, Earth would meet a similar fate. Not gone, not the capitol. Just Earth and all the memories and history we have of it

[@69Kazeshini]

I've always felt this way when it came to sci fi, i dont believe it would be centre of some grand empire or some abandoned lifeless rock, but people will have records of it, have sentimental value and will always come back as a form of pilgrimage.

[@splank3]

I prefer the question: " what if we choose to rebuild the Earth and live in harmony with it?" yes the 'asteroid impact' scenario is important, and I think cooling Venus and warming Mars make sense in future centuries... but to me the "failure" of protecting Earth with all our will and all our tech is more of a terrible prospect than the "failure" of not leaving it to mess up other places.

[@withinmyscope]

I'd expected you might cover the potential issue of a human's inability to live for long periods anywhere other than Earth. We still don't know if artificial gravity would be effective in the long run for a sustainable human population.

[@sai269]

I mean there isn't much explanation needed. If we can create artificial gravity that creates 1g then it will function exactly as it does here on Earth 1g of force is 1g doesn't matter if its artificial or not.

[@lanxy2398]

gravity and artificial gravity doesn’t have separate properties. If we’re in a gravity enviroment that mimics earths then there’s no reason why that’d effect humans

[@DajesOfficial]

@@lanxy2398 they have separate properties. Gravity isn't uniform across space while artificial gravity is. But the difference is so small that it will lilkely not have an impact. Anyway we should all consider moving into digital space and leave computers and robots to deal with the harsh reality.

[@lanxy2398]

@@DajesOfficial I disagree, I believe we should expand upon the stars and also moving into the digital space as well, one reason being the eggbasket theory. If something were to happen to earth humanity will be gone forever. If we spread out upon the stars as much as possible there will always be a form of humanity out there even millions to billions of years from now if we’re lucky

[@DajesOfficial]

@@lanxy2398 yeah, but we should do it using our computers which we can fully control, and not the biocomputers that emerged randomly through evolution. Even if biological nature of processor gives some advantages then we should be able to create it ourselves and in much suitable for space form.

[@RyanCarner]

Recently discovered Isaac Arthur while surfimg for shows like PBS Space Time. Already a huge fan and have years/hundreds of excellent content to binge 2-4 topics each day. Thank you Isaac. You make science and futurism accessible to lay to slightly/moderately scientifically minded people like myself. Great content without stooping to click bait tactics. Brilliant.

[@missZoey5387]

I think alot of the negativity about it stems from a perception, right or wrong, that we are focusing on a high risk investment that won't see returns for a long time and problems on our homeworld that are running out of time to solve, as well as a perception that we have reached the end of what our physics can past and a fear we're bringing our greed and arrogance with us.

[@L3r4k]

And who say that are the boring people who do nothing to improve human knowledge, they just shout for others to do their will. Like vegans who could very well develop meat in a lab, but understand nothing more than to protest and disrupt other people's lives.

[@missZoey5387]

@@L3r4k TBF there are vegans actually advocating for and fighting for real change, its just that the loud and obnoxious ones get the attention.

[@L3r4k]

@@missZoey5387 But the boring and scandalous are the ones who get in the way of people's lives. Scientists and others who are productive do not. Obviously I don't believe 100% of scientists are omnivores

[@charlesjmouse]

Always very good, and hopeful. Thank you. Maybe a follow up episode exploring possible reasons why we might not leave Earth along with this one about why staying doesn't have to be bad? Why? An exploration of possible issues can be as useful and enlightening as the possibilities. I'll kick off with a couple examples: Physical: Being the descendants of lifeforms that have spent 4bn-ish years evolving on this plant and only this planet maybe we are in some way so tightly bound to it that we really can't live (for long) elsewhere? It that likely? What might the potential reasons be? Psychological: We have the concept of the uncanny valley - we get very uncomfortable around things that are nearly right, seemingly much more so than things that are clearly different. What if the kind of artificial environments required for sustainable life off Earth are forever very Earth-like but never close enough? People unable to cope with the uneasiness of living in such environments may either choose to go back to Earth or simply go nuts?

[@ScottTempler]

in the past 95% all life died. and life sprung back. as long as a small percentige of life remains earth will keep going until our sun makes it impossible.

[@jimc.goodfellas]

I had forgotten that Babylon 5 episode, and that line....I used to watch that all the time late at night. What a great line, we have to keep the memories alive...

[@hazonku]

Great topic for spooky season. Exploration is the one thing humans have been inarguably good at & to think we'd just just stop because space is hard is truly dreadful.

[@burgzaza]

Space is hard, Earth is harder. Next 20 years are not looking bright at all. If we don't make huge breakthroughs soon, we will never do so. Rare ressources are already dwindling and they will not come back.

[@sadiqahmed4143]

@@burgzaza You answersed your question yourself in the very first word Space contains Most of these"Rare resources"

[@thelandofmisteroz]

I literally get so excited when a new episode is out!!

[@caseypalmateer4515]

Glory be to issac arther!

[@theobserver9131]

"Glory be"? That's really weird dude.

[@NoNameAtAll2]

hallowed be the arther

[@petrkurkowski3685]

GLORY BE!

[@lukesball1]

@@theobserver9131 "What does the phrase glory be mean?" "An expression of delighted surprise. Wow, I didn't expect to see you here!" I never know what day podcasts are on (even my favourite, Arthur here.) So Glory be indeed.

[@theobserver9131]

@@lukesball1 I've never looked up the definition, but I usually hear it associated with God, or conquering armies. I usually hear the word "Glory" used by people who like to worship something or someone. That's really gross to me. If someone insisted on using the word glory to talk about me, I would get as far away from them as possible. Believe it or not, I've actually had a few people that think I am the best thing since sliced bread, and that never works out well, because I am not all that. Being worshiped is gross.

[@jonwestmore4750]

That Sinclair quote... wow. Thanks for that

[@nicholasleone3494]

what a great episode, right up there with my favorite SFAI episodes like the fermi compendium, rare earth/intelligence/technology, why does life exist, Identity and AI.

[@josephreagan9545]

I think the idea of the political powers of a planet locking down the planet "for our own good" could make a good book series. Imagine a group of freedom fighters/ Christians/ etc. trying to build a ship to escape Earth in order to build a society where they can live in freedom and worship God in peace. They have to build a ship that can make it to space and withstand the bombardment from the prison guard fortresses beyond the moon in order to escape. Then they have to keep running away from pursuers and protect the crew from propaganda being beamed in from earth calling them to come back. Earth would basically become the north korea of the solar system and the rest of the solar system would be the wild west/ open seas.

[@TheSanien]

Hard to imagine how we could ever traverse the vast expanse of space.

[@Sara3346]

You don't find embryo ships plausible?

[@spaceman081447]

@TheSanien What's wrong with the idea of large colony ships holding hundreds of people, moving at only 1% of lightspeed, on voyages that last 1,000 years?

[@profeseurchemical]

reaching space before first bringing about an end to hierarchical domination and class etc etc etc here on earth is a nightmare scenario for me. I dont want us to spread suffering and systemic inequality out to the stars. I dont want all that time of recorded history spent unfree, in debt bondage, slavery and otherwise subordinated to other humans to have been one massive mistake we never recover from. to have doomed ourselves to perpetual suffering for not sufficiently stamping out the first people to enclose a field and proclaim it thiers.

[@willabyuberton818]

Your own personal spaceship? Makes me want to REACH OUT AND TOUCH SPACE

[@Dark_Jaguar]

I think it's worth adding that long before radio, we had many long distance means of communication from trained animals like crows to signal torches to smoke signals to literally just thumping the ground in the more echoy climes we've lived in. We're clever critters.

[@j4pp1n3]

Could the meaning of life be simply to decrease entropy as a counter force to the inorganic universe? To keep stuff happening? Maybe if we make it until the estimated time of heat death, we'll be so advanced in matter / enegy /matter conversion that we can keep this game running forever and will have reached true immortality.

[@Congrats1910]

This is my exact thought as well!

[@MarsStarcruiser]

Nah, we don’t need to make it until heat death. If Penrose is correct, its actually better if we don’t, as our presence will sustain the quantum fields for locality, preventing the universe from going through its next big bang and extending heat death until we too are no more. Not suggesting we die though. Michio Okaku’s suggested tunneling to the next universe, but his plan had to do with a multiverse and whole separate universe to go to. So many violations would happen that may prevent us from truly exploiting his scenario, but say we tunneled back to our original universe post-resurgence, then it would be only be akin more so as our energy that left that universe simply being returned to itself than a true violation.

[@stevenscott2136]

There's a theory that life is almost inevitable in a universe, because its tendency to reduce local entropy (and thus INCREASE overall entropy, much like your refrigerator heating up your kitchen while it cools your leftovers) actually HELPS the heat-death along. So the tendency for entropy to always increase is better-served in a life-bearing universe than in a sterile one, meaning that any step in this direction is favored by thermodynamics itself. I don't have a cite -- it was in something I read years ago.

[@LaundryFaerie]

And that's why I love me some Bab5. Quality could be inconsistent from episode to episode, but when it was good, by god, it was brilliant.

[@chrisk8208]

It's not a prison, until you realise you can't leave. I've been a prisoner of that ilk, several times. As soon as you understand only a miniscule amount of people can leave earth currently, and even then for no longer than a hand full of months, only a hairs-width from the surface, you realise we must leave. For the freedom of future generations minds, we must leave.

[@GameTimeWhy]

Is this some angsty writing prompt?

[@cosmictreason2242]

If the rapture happens next century, you didn’t really need to leave though

[@GameTimeWhy]

@@cosmictreason2242 if the rapture never happens then leaving is a good option.

[@celiojedi]

Dude i remember when this channel was a little channel wiith a guy with speak impediments... Never image it could became this great ! Not that ii wasnt great... but now is great ! Sorry about my broken english...

[@johnecoapollo7]

One of those ideas that fills me with existential dread even if it's so far away. An excellent video once again

[@echoecho3155]

Now the interesting question: why does an earthbound future terrify you?

[@roflcopterkerman4589]

@@echoecho3155 eternal enslavement on one precarious rock is the the most depressing possible answer to the Fermi paradox imaginable.

[@echoecho3155]

@@roflcopterkerman4589 How, though? And who's enslaving us? It might just be that expansion into the cosmos is economically unviable. For instance, it takes energy to go to space. All our current energy resources are highly limited, weather by oil, uranium, or the plethora or rare earth elements in solar and wind, of which the latter three rely entirely on the first for production. Honestly, being trapped on Earth is less likely to be enslavement and more likely to be history as usual. Personally, thd "optimistic" futures normally discussed here - quadrillions of posthumans living AI-managed lives on lifeless rocks or sterile habitats - sounds a million more times nightmarish than being stuck on Earth, even at gunpoint.

[@MarsStarcruiser]

@@roflcopterkerman4589 Nah, I wouldn’t find it depressing and likely not eternal either. They’d better be well hidden and as elusively involved as possible, because at some point someone will slip up. Then you’ll have the human race reverse engineering our captors technology, stockpiling resources and feigning ignorance till we can break out of their control. I doubt we’ll sit idly by as a slave once we become aware of whatever is holding is here.

[@distantraveller9876]

​@@roflcopterkerman4589 If you think about it long and hard enough you will come to the logical conclusion that it is the most likely and probable explanation to the Fermi Paradox. Biology, entropy and the exponential expansion of the universe have made it so that only a small fraction of the galaxy will ever be able to be explored and experienced by humans. We'll be lucky if we can colonize the Moon, nevermind our entire solar system or galaxy.

[@CYBERDELICRELICS]

Can't and not allowed are 2 different things.

[@waverlyking6045]

They are but they aren’t without overlaps.

[@ThrottleKitty]

I've always felt this could happen due to the "Crabs in a bucket" idea. That leaving the solar system leaves something so vulnerable for so long that somebody from within the solar system will inevitably spot them and destroy them. Sense not everybody can leave, those who can't will stop those who try. Leaving becomes impossible.

[@kevo9352]

Maybe virtual reality would keep us here

[@georgesantiago4871]

Been waiting for this one!

[@godamid4889]

It's not really like setting off in a boat like the first seafarers did though. Travelling to the nearest island, Alpha Centauri is the equivalent of jumping into an ancient boat and crossing an ocean that is 1.76 billion kilometres wide to get to the nearest island. That's a little bit more than the distance between Saturn and earth, at a maximum of 11 kph.

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

That is how analogies work. If _all_ of the aspects were identical, it wouldn't be an analogy. ...it would be comparing sending a fleet of generation ships to the Proxima system -with sending a fleet of generation ships to the Proxima system.

[@CarlosAM1]

...you don't say

[@lepjagman]

@@jengleheimerschmitt7941 true, but it's frustrating when people who claim to be about hard science start comparing the risk of Mars colonization to the risk of colonizing the Americas. The difference is so vast that thr analogy becomes useless.

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

@@lepjagman When you adjust for the level of technology at our disposal, I think Colonizing Mars will be objectively _less_ risky. Those first ships that brought settlers across the Atlantic were built for sailing around the Mediterranean. Thousands of people didn't survive the voyage. Look what the Shackleton Expedition guys in the Antarctic survived. I think we've done _far_ more difficult things than Colonizing Mars. Think about living in a trench in Ftance in the first world war. We can do it.

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

@@lepjagman I think that analogy breaks down badly in a lot of ways though. I don't think that the whole cowboy / individualist / pirate thing that is so fun in scifi is remotely applicable. It think it will be much closer to the opposite of that. In the American West, all of the things needed to survive _were_ available to harvest with what you could carry on your back if your were tough. In space it is the polar opposite. It would be more like taking an entire highrise building from New York, or several of them, on an already constructed railroad line, -rather than Lewis and Clark roughing it out on their own. It will be much more expensive and much less cowboy-y, -but I don't think it will be nearly as rough on the actual humans that make the trip.

[@lipingrahman6648]

If we can never leave this mud ball of a planet then it will be, as it has been for all other life forms. Our cradle and our grave.

[@vegitoultimatefusion5223]

This is probably the scariest concept. Maybe our technology won't progress in time. Maybe we will devolve into nuclear winter. Let us hope and push towards a brighter future.

[@captainhakob814]

Intriguing. Many humans try to hold humanity back.

[@CharliMorganMusic]

I think that once a civilization discovers doomsday tech, it triggers a half-life clock, with a 50% chance of annihilation per century.

[@maltheopia]

@@captainhakob814 Except for a few sociopaths and significantly more 'omg humans are a cancer on this planet, we must dismantle our society and retvrn to nature' cuckolds, most humans are not trying to hold humanity back. As much as I disdain certain ideologies, I do realize that most of them were trying to get to the same place we were so I try not to judge them too harshy. EXCEPT for the 'omg humans are a cancer on this planet' types. Regardless of what happens to the rest of humanity, I hope they die screaming for water, natural grace, and divine mercy as the sun cooks them and the remains of the planet they pretend to love so much.

[@js8270]

The funny thing is our technology is the reason we're heading to oblivion. If we had remained in the trees with our evolutionary ancestors that window would have extended out much further.

[@jsbrads1]

We have lots of time.

[@businessbusiness9407]

Another instant classic. Good job!

[@Ink_Tide]

Two words: Start digging!

[@mill2712]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/n3OzfnyLhd9pY80 kzbin.info/www/bejne/oIu0gWWlg6med68

[@sarcasmo57]

Good episode Isaac. Thanks.

[@GreenManorite]

The notion of limiting extra system exploration in order to contain species divergence seems plausible. I think that would restrict travel to Saturn's orbit, not earth proper. I agree that this would be more applicable to AI. If AI is a quasi hive mind, delegating then auditing tasks and updating instructions rapidly, time lags force a major slow down to the system delegating more control. Effectively time lags make remote AIs necessarily more individualistic and potentially divergent. There will be strong incentives to control divergence.

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

For a particular AI system, sure. But when the human population is many thousands of times the current global population, unless there is an absolutely draconian government that is prepared to shoot down every single ship full of people that 1) live entierly self sufficiently, and 2) would rather not live quite so close to you, or bow to your laws, -someome is going to end up moving further out than Saturn. If 2 million humans with their own reactors, their own agriculture, living on a fleet of their own ships, choose not to join your solar-system empire, -are you going to destroy their ships if they wander outside of whatever "border" you madate for them?

[@SilverMKI]

Eh, divergence happens regardless; high control societies don't prevent that although they may slow things down. The "solution" very much depends on your viewpoint. Ultimately humanity will either change into something else naturally, though artificial means or through replacement by something we have made; the continuation of humanity in spirit, if not in biological terms is to my mind a positive thing.

[@MarsStarcruiser]

Thats a fun one. I like AI scenarios because it always seems like the best course of action is to upgrade them further.

[@arandomdragon1534]

For all of the ideas where we decide that we don't want to expand or leave, I can never think of a scenario where that affects the whole of humanity. I think that any attempt to enforce that would inevitably result in the edict being flatly ignored or a massive war between the enforcers and the disregarders.

[@nicholascarter9158]

The problem is essentially that you need so much wealth to build an interplanetary craft that can actually support more than 10 people that you'll need the consent of a sizeable percentage of the population to complete the project. Just saying "No one group is allowed to have that much enriched Uranium at once" would crash the whole enterprise.

[@arandomdragon1534]

@@nicholascarter9158 Ok, so you go on ahead and get UN approval for a bill that prevents anyone nation from having that much uranium, or that sort of launch infrastructure, or that much so and so. What do you do to nations that don't sign that bill? How do you tell a nation that goes and builds that sort of stuff that they can't especially seeing as it gives them a potentially significant military advantage. What do you do if everyone agrees space travel bad, except the US? How do you enforce it?

[@nicholascarter9158]

@@arandomdragon1534 The problem you guys are both missing is that the call comes from inside the house. "Mr. President, the space-fans call on you to completely disarm the US military of all nuclear armaments and demolish all functioning nuclear powerplants in the country. They then ask you to give them, for free, all of the Uranium supplies currently in the nation, so that they can fire the entire thing into space. What should I tell them?" "Keep in mind Mr. President that they are going on a one way trip out of our solar system and are renouncing US citizenship and tax burdens the very moment they leave atmosphere."

[@nicholascarter9158]

@@crafterchief3812 ^

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

@@arandomdragon1534 I agree completely. ...that's why I harvest refine most of my Uranium in orbit. Come try to take it, you dirty groundhogs.

[@Njkk500]

This was a very interesting one. I often wonder what worldbound civilisations would look like, as the millions of years pass they would truly inhabit every millimetre of said world. The skies would look amazing. EDIT: looking forward to the personal spaceship conversation!

[@theobserver9131]

The skies already look amazing. I hate to see them polluted with artificial things. I don't think a single species could ever compete with the whole of nature as far as beauty goes. The idea of a single species inhabiting every millimeter of any world sounds horrible to me. And I'm not talking about singled celled organisms. Don't be that guy.

[@maltheopia]

​@@theobserver9131 "I don't think a single species could ever compete with the whole of nature as far as beauty goes." What a piously cucked way to live. Humans will one day be able to create much more beautiful things than planet Earth could ever shit out in the remaining 500 million years of its existence. We can create way more species of different origins and differing destinations than this stagnant planet ever could. We can bring life to worlds that will never have it. Humans can even save Mother Earth from itself by taming Father Sol, though that will be more out of pity than need. I value diversity, and while you could do worse than Mother Earth she is increasingly found wanting. I grow tired of you pious weaklings clinging to the dirt and your nature worship rituals and your cribs, trying to demean a superior humanity as you demeaned yourself for daring to think bigger. Humans will tame the cosmos, with or without your cowardly piety. * Any intelligent lifeform, I used humans specifically because it triggers the kind of cuckold who insists on seeing his neighbors as inferior as they.

[@jsbrads1]

There is a theory we will top out at 12 billion people. Once that stabilizes, every single couple can have two kids for population stability.

[@richardgreen7225]

I expect an *intelligent* civilization will evolve qualitatively rather than quantitatively. Rather than expanding like locusts and living hand-to-mouth, they would choose negative population growth (NPG) so that the resources available to each resident would grow instead of the number of residents. With robots/automation available as resources to do the work, population is no longer a resource - it is, in fact, a potential liability.

[@jsbrads1]

@@richardgreen7225 population being a liability is a backwards perspective. The Malthusian perspective has been disproven countless times, but it is taught in university as true, much like socialism and other disproven ideas. Innovation, economic growth, wealthy are all attached population growth. With today’s technology, we can support many multiples of today’s population on an indefinite basis.

[@theobserver9131]

I loved that little evolution animation! I did not see that coming!

[@r3dp9]

Most people seem to forget that we are ALREADY living in a world where descendants completely replace the ancestors. It's called parents dying and children being born. That doesn't make being a parent less valuable or meaningful. Furthermore, even if children rebel against the parents... their children rebel against them in turn, and you wind up with generational super cycles, until you wind up with a generation very similar to the current one.

[@charlesbryant3287]

One could imagine earth growing a thousandfold, being populated from core to moon orbit. With humans providing every thing from food to energy by simply living. With the only non organic bits being the structure we stand on. Perhaps we could move the whole structure by all of us looking in one direction saying "move" All it would take is imagination and patience...

[@smoore6461]

Very nice episodes with so much of news focused on global destruction, it's always nice to come here and get a dose of science based positivity!

[@BaldingClamydia]

Masterful earbud segue, truly! ^.^ Oh yeah, the episode was great too (lol)

[@sujimtangerines]

Babylon 5 reference!! Underrated series; JMS is brilliant. So many poignant lines.

[@nandodando9695]

Before the Sun swallows the Earth I hope we can wrap it and fly it to the next stop..if we don't do STAR LIFTING to not have the problem, which is easier.

[@MarsStarcruiser]

I do think it behooves us to travel in the direction of Methuselah in that case. Difficulties in lowering the metallicity of our sun may limit the effectiveness of our efforts to preserve it. Methuselah however, being nearly as old as the universe, but still mysteriously less than 1/3rd of its possible lifespan may be more valuable to us in the long run than our own sun.

[@thinktankdetective8307]

This would mean that humanity will go extinct because it’s very unlikely we would survive any calamities.

[@jsbrads1]

We can probably chill until the sun dies/Andromeda arrives with planetary defense. Hopefully by then we will have figured things out. Remove mass from the sun to lengthen its life and move earth closer.

[@ProjectDarkWolf]

People are usually surprised that as an environmentalist I support space exploration. But it's the same point we all make here, even if we could make Earth a utopia it's still our only home, and the only home of life that we know if, and it's a fragile one.

[@aninternetuser4306]

I just finished cyberpunk 2077 so that's the bleak future I see at the moment.

[@WiseOwl_1408]

It's more likely than not with the level of corporate control in the world now.

[@tturi2]

corporate wars, but they still end up in mars

[@BubbleoniaRising]

To put this in context our ancestors who wrote our Holy books might understand: the corporate dystopia of Cyberpunk is inherently Luciferian. It is the proverbial thousand years of darkness, albeit lit by neon reflections Dante would have described as hellish.

[@maltheopia]

I'm surprised politics aren't mentioned more of a Fermi Paradox solution. I know why they aren't, because political situations seem temporary and ephemeral. That with enough time, any political situation that prevents interstellar colonized will be overturned and thus would not constitute a Great Filter. Of course, these situations ignore scenarios like 1984 where the hegemon is so profound that any attempt to dislodge or alter it (asteroid aimed at Oceania, superplague starting in Eastasia) will either completely destroy civilization, prevent further technological progress for its survivors, or reset it to an earlier point on the same path. Which then brings up the quest which side humanity sits on this Great Filter. Personally, I think we're already past it and specifically passed it in the mid 19th-century, when industrialized liberal democracies permanently cracked the power of non-industrialized Iron Age autocracies.

[@johnmalone5693]

An excellent subject choice. All scenarios should be considered.

[@ravenlord4]

I like the idea of making Earth our spaceship, and exploring the galaxy that way.

[@belldrop7365]

Moving the planet away from it's miraculously perfect orbit is a really bad idea.

[@NovoCognition]

I got a better idea. Turn the whole Solar system into a spaceship. Take a Nicole-Dyson beam around the Sun, point it in reverse, and use it to steer around the galaxy.

[@ravenlord4]

@@belldrop7365 You should probably watch the video before commenting, Then you'd learn that the whole point of moving the Earth is because this orbit won't be "miraculously perfect" for much longer. Cheers, and have a better day.

[@belldrop7365]

@@ravenlord4 I'm not talking about the video. I'm talking about you're own comment. Your "whole point" of moving the earth ain't related to the orbit but to turn the planet into spaceship, lmao. Going out of the frying pan and into the fire is a really bad idea.

[@jsbrads1]

@@belldrop7365 I took it for granted we would be making small corrections to our orbit at some point. The cheap way to offset global warming would include a large number of mirrors, but longer term, increasing our orbit by some miles wouldn’t hurt.

[@pspicer777]

If we cannot, then our children will. In this context, general AI entities. We will, one way or another, have the stars. That is our destiny.

[@09Ateam]

As a species we cant agree on what a woman is, civilization collapse is around the corner which will set us back to the stone age never to dream of the stars again.

[@poe_slaw]

least melodramatic conservative

[@Grak70]

Half a century ago your ilk were convinced interracial marriage was going to do the same thing. Go touch some grass.

[@jsbrads1]

Greece had the same problem before their collapse. We can recover, find ancient US tech and surpass our current level of tech… like Rome… the West had many small collapses in the last millennia. We recovered each time. Let’s hope we keep doing so.

[@MrNote-lz7lh]

What? You never heard of china or something? Even if the western world was to fall due to wokeism I doubt China will follow their example. Then you have to think about all the rich Muslim countries that sure as hell won't follow the west example.

[@jsbrads1]

@@MrNote-lz7lh China isn’t progress oriented, Muslim countries are positively regressive. We may end up Poland being the next super power in a hundred years.

[@MrKillswitch88]

With the current civilization in decline due to the usual factors like greed, incompetence, and ideology this doesn't surprise me. Really doesn't help that our technology is done from the mindset of generating profit over quality and job security rather than making things to last which doesn't bode well in the long run when it comes to space when some disposable tech decides to expire because it was designed from the same mindset as an macbook. That own nothing future is going to cost humanity dearly in the long run.

[@jengleheimerschmitt7941]

Luckily for us aerospace components are manufactured to very different standards than consumer electronics.

[@JS-vn1og]

No matter how pretty it is made being trapped on one world would be a horrible dystopia.

[@pandoraeeris7860]

I mean, that's been the case for the human species for over a million years - and you're right, it is a dystopia.

[@parkershaw8529]

It's hard to imagine we can't leave earth, especially on pure technical perspective. Of course, if we fuck everything up due to petty differences, then we don't really deserve long term survival anyway. Assuming we are not that stupid, even without any thoeretical breakthrough, we at least can colonize solar system gradually. After that, it would be fairly natural to hop to neighboring star systems.

[@LRBeforeTheInternet]

It's difficult to see our solar system as more than just humanity's eventual graveyard.

[@sid2112]

Have kids, that'll change your perspective.

[@garethbaus5471]

@@sid2112 Those kids are almost certainly going to die in the solar system, and we don't yet even know for certain if they or any of their descents actually can let alone will ever leave the solar system. If our descendants don't leave the solar system they will inevitably die by the time the solar system dies. It is a distinct possibility that the solar system might end up being where everyone dies.

[@Grak70]

That’s like saying it’s hard to see your own body as anything but a corpse.

[@LRBeforeTheInternet]

@@sid2112 Assuming my "perspective" Isn't already based in part on the children I've already raised.

[@LRBeforeTheInternet]

@@Grak70 I won't eventually be a "corpse"?

[@Skyblade22]

In a sea of misery and darkness, you truly are a light in the dark.

[@buckanderson3520]

What makes people think that the development of technology isn't natural? If we are natural then so is everything we do.

[@kjartan46]

Matter is illusory, so if you worry about where you go when you die, you should know you are already there…😊

[@mopnem]

That film quote really placed Marylyn with Einstein in a discussion about planetary expansion lol

[@redcat9436]

I prefer Marilyn.

[@suchdevelopments]

😁🥰😎🤓Issaac, how are you this sunny morning in 🌏Goonellabah on North Coast NSW🌏? I have not been to this YT site for 3.5 years when I had a stroke.

[@isaacarthurSFIA]

I'm glad you're back and hope you're doing better

[@CSharpRenan]

There is a scifi series of books from Joe Haldeman (same author of The Forever War) about humankind being unable to leave Earth. The books are Marsbound, Starbound and Earthbound, in this order.

[@hokiturmix]

NBT Starlifting to ensure our Sun future.

[@juha-mattikoponen1625]

It could be as simple as us being earthbound by the Kessler syndrome for a number of years. If we get a catastrophic event and can't figure a way to clean the debris via ground based methods it could be bad.

[@MarsStarcruiser]

@J Wilt Waiting is for the lazy. We can technically shoot that stuff from the ground into ellipticals or brute force it back to Earth with alternative accelerators…nukes…if needed to undo Kessler in fractions of that time. Just gonna have to shut off power, like a monthly EMP day, “time to shut off everything go for a walk, look at fireworks!”

[@lynettecarter9887]

Catching up 🍻 well done to you and your wife and team yet again as always a home run from Wales across the big pond

[@lynettecarter9887]

P.s Babylon 5 👍 just needed a red dwarf quote 🍻

[@adamdean5881]

Happy Arthursday everyone

[@chriskeach1908]

RIP Michael O'Hare, Jerry Doyle, Andreas Katsulas, Richard Biggs, Jeff Conway, Mira Furlan and Stephen Furst... Damn, didnt realise that Delenn and Vir are now in the place where no shadows fall 😢

[@russellst.martin4255]

That checkout line at the end really jarred me out of quite a tranquil state.

[@amitrabin1667]

Interesting episode, and happy birthday! Keep up the amazing content! With appreciation, from the Netherlands!

[@seditt5146]

For the people who believe we may one day run out of resources remember, we are GAINING mass to the Earth, not losing it. No matter what we do all those resources are still here just in a different form at worse.

[@zhcultivator]

Great video

[@oobrocks]

It’s 2022 and it’s possible our civilization could end next yr: Putin has just said “I won’t use nuclear unless “we’re attacked” 😢

[@jsbrads1]

I don’t think nuclear bombs would be enough to end civilization. We can come together and clean up the mess… Corrupt politicians, government workers… are far more destructive to the fabric of society.

[@MrNote-lz7lh]

Whatever. The end of civilization won't be the end of humanity. We don't have enough Nukes on Earth to wipe out even half of humanity. So it'd only be a setback of a couple of decades. Which we would quickly be able to recover from thanks to all the stored knowledge.

[@romanmanner]

Of all the glorious Isaac Arthur ocntent, this is the single most realistic outcome in our present timeline.

[@Titan-8190]

I'm not sure about it, there is a long way to the interstellar post scarcity civilization, but each individual steps to get there seems unavoidable. That's why the fermi paradox is such a mystery. The reason he had to invoke to justify that we never leave earth are all more far fetched than time travel itself: god materializing to prevent us, or humanity uniting against it forever...

[@archlich4489]

Thank you, Mr. Arthur. 🙂

[@Deridus]

B5's first Season is an industrial-scale gem mine. It represented, to me at least, a more realistic version of Star Trek and what we could be. Sinclair was a far more interesting character than Sheridan.

[@oliverharris7366]

Even if earths resources become spent it would still be the best place to live or to stay in orbit around. Because it has a very important thing that the other planets don't it has a strong enough magnetic field to protect us from deadly Radiation.

[@MarsStarcruiser]

True, but atmosphere itself does much of that job, not just the field. Providing atmosphere to the red planet will do alot to shield the inhabitants one day, even without a field. Still would like one, but with the rate of depletion from solar winds estimated to take more than a million years to undo terraforming, I’m sure we’ll get around to dealing with the field problem soon enough. Gravity problem though🤔…

[@petersteenkamp]

My favorite futurist documentary is Idiocracy.

[@mjk9388]

Happy Birthday Isaac!

[@kfitzz]

I've waited so long for this

[@TheNaturalscorpio]

As soon as you mention a quote from Sinclair I knew the exact line you were talking about. If I could double up with this video just for quoting Babylon 5 I would