Israel and Iran: Is War Inevitable? - Dr. Thomas S. Kaplan in with Norman T. Roule

[@Gothguy47]

Posting this just in case anyone here is genuinely unfamiliar with the situation in the Middle East and is watching this video to gain some insight. Kaplan's perspective is very much in line with his contemporaries (Kissinger, Mearsheimer, et al.) in that he is a political Realist, in his case, representing the views of the Pentagon and the political elite in the United States. The Saudi-Israel peace deal that was disrupted by the October 7 attack is also a very obvious strategic point that actually supports his case, and the fact that he neglected to mention it all (not even to dismiss it) makes me suspicious as to just how incisive his strategic brilliance really is on this matter. Furthermore he exaggerates Iran's hand in its apparent direction of the October 7th attacks, at the expense of entirely omitting, or at least failing to acknowledge the Palestinian state of mind in this equation. Indeed, listening to him speak, you would fall under the impression that Hamas is nothing more than a strategic and military arm of the Iranian regime, similar to Hezbollah, and that their motivation is therefore in line with Iran's theocratic desire to obliterate Israel for Twelver Shia reasons (and other Iranian ideations that he mentioned). Which, yes, they wish to see Israel destroyed, but no, not for Twelver Shia and other Iranian-inspired motivations. This analysis deeply, and likely deliberately, obfuscates and erases the Palestinian experience that has been at the very heart of this conflict for decades. The political reality is that the Palestinian people, who got little more than a passing acknowledgement of their existence during this entire 90 minute lecture, have been systematically starved, displaced, murdered, mutilated, and oppressed by the Israeli occupying forces for at least 50 years. Where is Kaplan's "strategic empathy" for the Palestinian populace? Where do their needs and the motivations of their citizens, their representatives in the UN, as well as Hamas, fall into this picture? Even if we take empathy out of the equation, any analysis of the crisis in the Levant that does not take into account the Palestinian situation is either false, misguided, misleading, or malicious. I'm unsure if Kaplan's brilliance is as sharp as some claim it to be, but at least in this presentation, it amounted to blather that's just shy of State Department anti-Iranian propaganda with very little actual strategic insight, even to support his own claims (Iran's succession problems, their economy, their relationship with Pakistan, etc.). I think Norman could have done a better job prodding and digging deeper to try to get a clearer picture from Kaplan, but the fact that they're friends, and that Norman likely agrees with much of this analysis unfortunately turned this into more of a "Let's talk about why you're so brilliant" lecture rather than an actual sober strategic analysis of the political reality on the ground.

[@alrosano5786]

No mention of any occupation or apartheid? No matter how intelligent you are but if you are totally one sided!

[@AlanWeiner-l4c]

Israel has diverse populations Black. White Spanish. Chinese Black Indian Indonesian etc No Muslim nation is as tolerant and honest and believe in 1 God Moses the Hero No Muslim has such legitimate claim

[@eslamhassan9869]

zionist ego and rawness they only see themselves

[@juliusv.cnwachukwu6076]

I'm the first to like and to comment on this Video. With that privilege, I'll say that All wars can be prevented if certain men were not so arrogant and rigid in their opinions about the lives and value of others

[@Avicena-tf5uj]

Thank you Mr. Kaplan. Always a pleasure listening to you. As a Muslim American, I too am very hopeful for the region. A wild card you are not assessing is Afghanistan. Outside of Shia and even Arab realm, it is its entire own entity. A proper bridge and friendship between Israel/US and the new regime in Afghanistan, can entirely tip the balance of power and drastically change the chess board. There is no reason the hardline Taliban regime in Afghanistan wouldn’t accept recognition of Israel, allow US troops back in the country, and rent them airfields. Isolating them will only push them into Iran, China and even Russia’s hands. When we isolated the first Taliban regime they ended up getting taken advantage of by Al Qaida. They don’t have western or enlightenment values, but that all takes time. At the very least, they are NOT genocidal anti-semites, and new friendships can be forged. A surrounded Iran is a defanged Iran. Plus there’s lots of gold mines 😎

[@AlanWeiner-l4c]

Mr.Kaplan, you are the Man to Advise both the Democrats and Republicans alike on these issues . And don’t forget to call out Western Nations on the same

[@AlanWeiner-l4c]

Only healthy minded nations Like The decent people of Bahrain

[@selcuktastepe5127]

If I had a chance to ask Mr.Kaplan questions .. I would like to ask 2 questions.. First one is: "Can Jewish people would have a future with people like netenyahu or like minded as the same way?" , second one " Does it mean to be a jewish is to be a zionist?" Thank you.. this is for the Daniel.

[@giovanni8304]

I'd rather hear about the ME and Iran than some family stories and how being Jewish colours one's approach to picking one's nose.

[@mastermassy7472]

While Doctor exudes his best of gab upon erudite,,, depicting a chronologically academic picture of the events,,, as a deposition expert witness,,, one, with all due respect wonders how an Arab of the 50s and 60s would proverbially agree or disagree with the gist of the instant assessment

[@selcuktastepe5127]

Mr.Kaplan, why you didnt spell a word about Turkish people?? Turkish are watchin you too, Selcuks, Ottomans, may be you should know from your fathers..regional .. you speak like Turks doesnt exist.. thats so interesting to me 🫡