John Deere Earnings Confirm Farm RECESSION

[@don66hotrod94]

Small farmer here. Refuse to go into debt for new machinery. In these tough times there is little to no margin for the farmer.

[@Thegrim326]

Even at 9 dollar corn and 16 dollar beans we were struggling

[@MarshallThompson-r1p]

The final blow here is the property taxes. Take a year where there is high fuel, chemical and fertilizer pricing, then add high taxes. The only thing left to control is equipment purchases.

[@don66hotrod94]

@@MarshallThompson-r1p We just got reassessed and they promised property taxes wouldn't go up. We;ll see right after Christmas if they were lying.

[@davehughesfarm7983]

dont run the old stuff

[@sarahann530]

​@Thegrim326 Don't worry the subsidies/ welfare are coming in January

[@johnzeit919]

We typically update when when equipment is down... of course we don't buy new.

[@CamoBackpacker]

Exactly it’s tough. Even running old machinery and fix fix, and repair bills 😢

[@notsimplyorganic1053]

I watch machinery auctions religiously, i dont see much of a decline on older stuff, but sharp declines on new to 3 year old stuff

[@hoffrun]

I would consider the recession more as a structural change. The global demand for corn and beans hasn't changed , it's that the global farmers have lower input costs and can actually grow grains. Brazil, Argentina now have access to inputs without John Deere, without US dollars. China will not betray its new supply chain partners.

[@ryanevers7563]

Deere has dramatically raised their prices on parts and is focusing on upselling their technology.

[@mikewagar62]

replacing equipment at about the same rate as usual. We always buy used and try to find big ticket equipment thru private sale. Dealers try and make too much on used sales.

[@bourbonbrowntrademanagement]

Hello Joe. I am huge fan of the show. I don’t mean to be rude, but recession is definitely not a matter of opinion. As a former Professor of Econometry, I may say that the academic consensus since 1974 regarding a recession is as follows: “A technical recession occurs when a country's GDP falls in two consecutive quarters”. Therefore, it is not a matter of opinion. If USA GDP is going down for two consecutives quarters, you are in recession period. But as I mentioned, I a huge fan of the show. Keep up with the great work.

[@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff]

Sorry, but you're wrong. As a professional podcaster, we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP in 2022. There was no official recession according to NBER. In addition, a "farm recession" is totally different from a "regular" recession.

[@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff]

"The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria-depth, diffusion, and duration-as somewhat interchangeable." www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating#:~:text=The%20NBER's%20definition%20emphasizes%20that,and%20duration%E2%80%94as%20somewhat%20interchangeable.

[@bourbonbrowntrademanagement]

@@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff Sorry, but you are wrong again. There is no such a thing as a farm recession. The only recession that is calculated is a country recession. If NBER did not consider 2 consecutive quarters negative GDP as a recession, they are also wrong. Or maybe they trying to come up with a new way of looking at what the entire world scientific academy agrees on the definition of a recession. Maybe the same view on NBA champions being world champions.

[@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff]

@@bourbonbrowntrademanagement NBER is literally the official recession scorekeeper in the United States. My entire point is that nobody can officially call a "farm recession" - there is no metric.

[@lilblackduc7312]

Over the decades Professor, I've witnessed & lived through the ups and downs since the '60s. I agree with your assessment, entirely. There's lies, damn lies & statistics. This quote seems to apply to "officials" in most cases: "If you cannot dazzle them with brilliance...baffle them with B.S.". 🤔😳

[@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff]

Good morning! Have you cut back or altered your machinery and equipment spending??

[@prestonkrohn9186]

Yes, instead of doing our normal 4 year trade with planters we tore them all the way down and rebuilt. Saved money for now.

[@timnichols9015]

My newest tractor is a 2000 MX270. When I bought that 5 years ago, it was $20k cheaper than a JD 8410. Deere is just gotten too pricey for me.

[@rocket8351]

Been casually shopping for a new to me tractor for a couple years. Prices have softened but I think I'll wait it out a little longer.

[@Mark-qq5po]

Yes,, luckily there is still a lot of money around as the FC bank re-financed my machinery note extending the payment schedule 6 years, freeing up much needed operating capital...Did cost me a couple percent interest, though :(...They would not have been so accommodating if they were being squeezed.

[@tomtibbits4423]

The rain stopped neighbors from finishing hrw wheat seeding in late October, some seeded last week, very late here. I feel acres are going to be down considerably due to price so far below cost of production and rain.

[@johnireland6301]

U may want to check that Deer stock has hit a record high. Deere is doing just fine. When grain prices improve Deere will move higher.

[@kevinnoah-i4o]

2 years ago we had record corn, bean prices. Then every farmer bought, bowered like prices would never go lower.. Sadly those folks are in a jam.

[@farming4g]

Well when equipment costs an arm and a leg, and parts with labor costs the other arm and leg.... I wonder with sone of the equipment, lots has to have all this stuff crammed into it that adds cost and upkeep. Modern technology has failed us here because it's complicated and expensive. Emissions dont do any favors either

[@sarahann530]

So pollution is good

[@ryanmarkey5012]

I cant justify buying new or used equipment. The decrease in new machines will keep used from collapsing value. The farmer is eating all the inflation costs while grains remain flat to lower. I have been asking older producers if they will put out soybeans next year and none of them appear to want to change even though its a losing venture. Optimism or insanity?

[@joshuas7618]

No, this is just another method for Venture Capital, together with Wall Street, use to acquire your family land.

[@debi5292]

Part of this is that JD took on the D.E.I. bull sh1t. And right to repair. Our operation kicked JD off the farm in the late 90's. The 8000 series tractors were the issue. JD said it cost 30% less to build than the 60 series of the day. Then we discovered they were 25% more money. Rough math says 50% is more that we wanted to pay. Not to mention Funk transmission cuts all JD gears for those tractors. Outsourcing is not good for quality control. We went to Caterpillar back in the day and have never looked back. We still buy used JD machinery to drag behind the Cats lol. 3rd Claas combine as well. Best machine we have used for quality grain in our bins.

[@joshuas7618]

I had no idea DEI was a thing in the 90's, or that right-to-repair was a bad thing. I appreciate your napkin math skills. Really puts what you're talking (unhinged ranting) about in perspective, thank you.

[@sarahann530]

​@@joshuas7618 Who will not be able to work at John Deere if they drop DEI ?

[@TonyBrady-u1o]

Most farmers in 70s through the 90s had a job besides farming very few just farmed inless there wife worked

[@joshuas7618]

I had to buy an ox and plow! We're in tuff times!

[@lilblackduc7312]

Y'all have a pleasant weekend...🇺🇸 👍☕

[@ttanne7838]

What is consumer credit card debt? Are banks getting stuck with large buildings in the large cities as investors walk away?

[@johnwilt367]

Tell us something we don't know

[@TheRoadfarmer]

But if we can't blame the possibility of another trade war for low bean prices then we can't blame Trump for low bean prices.....

[@buzzdanker2832]

Right But He's To Blame for Being A Criminal Rapist Fraud Defaming Liar Who Nominates Other Sex Offenders For Public Office..

[@GlenironPa]

The trade war was launched and lost by Trump. The war is over. China just went to Brazil and Argentina. We sent billions to the farmers to subsidize the market lost and the tarrifs on the goods coming out of China we are paying for. All a continuation of Trump.

[@kevinnoah-i4o]

Jhina Trade War pushes Jhina away from the United States. Thanks Donald for your failed Trade War.

[@jimmy999-z2j]

Good morning

[@CamoBackpacker]

JD is extremely over priced on everything.

[@sarahann530]

Then buy something you can afford