This Is When To Buy

[@JosephCarlsonShow]

Hope you're all having a great week - Shout out to patreon members, if you want to try it out, you can join the free trial here: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson

[@fa6469]

Great story, I hold Starbucks and baba too. Agree next 3-4 years will recover.

[@KidFreshie]

I don't think people appreciate how difficult and time consuming it is to create a video like this. Nice work.

[@WanderingExistence]

Honestly, one of the best channels out there on general investing, from the transparency of the portfolio to the depth of data and collections of charts, and he makes it all easy to understand by always taking it back to first principles. Big props to Joseph for putting this together on a regular basis. If you haven't listened to his three part deep dive into Amazon on Joseph Carlson After Hours I highly recommend it!

[@JohnnyWalkerYT]

I’ve tried to copy his layout. It’s more than time consuming. Investing is hard. Making these videos is harder. I love Joseph Carlson, and his videos. Great investor and great content creator

[@jaimebotero1682]

Joseph Carlson is mega based. Great content!

[@pw9522]

Super quality video, maybe my favorite you have done. Great going through the Ackman clip, shows the point so well.

[@joaoalbertofn]

The best long term stock analysts in KZbin. Thank you Joseph.

[@WheresWaldo05]

He isnt an analyst. He is a random guy with loads of money. If you have loads of money you can buy alot more stocks. And earn alot more. Doesnt mean anything.

[@LZentertainments]

@@WheresWaldo05 what a stupid comment

[@matthewg5792]

Excellent coverage of Ackman's Chipotle journey. Case studies like this are very educational so thank you for taking the time to share it with us.

[@ryansimpson3074]

Yeah this analysis was on point

[@ForemanMD]

Thanks for listening to and addressing your viewers. 👏

[@Metroeyedocs]

Kudos Joseph for putting together this video. It really helps highlight why listening to the financial news noise is a major distraction. Focus on buy into great companies early and on dips...Then hold on. 🤑

[@JackDuffley]

It's funny how so many people only call it a "mistake" when something goes down, but never when an otherwise dumb investment goes up. Is betting on a pair of 3s when you're up against a straight a mistake? Yes. But if you miraculously land four-of-a-kind 3s with the remaining cards, you win. No one calls it a mistake when you make money. 💸

[@plowerrr3]

Why do you always use BABA as an example of a failed investment? You invested less than a year ago, and the whole point is to wait for at least 5 years, assuming the investment thesis has not changed, which it hasn't.

[@NiceGuyEddy00]

The OP @1:26 made the BABA comparison....

[@plowerrr3]

@@NiceGuyEddy00 Yeah, but he responds to it as if he agrees.

[@NiceGuyEddy00]

@@plowerrr3 I don't think I heard him say it was a failed investment, did he? He said that he "was it the same mistake" which in hind sight, buying BABA at the price was in fact a mistake. Obviously it happens to everyone because we don't have a crystal ball, but I think he was just acknowledging it as a mistake (unless there is a part I didn't catch, feel free to let me know).

[@plowerrr3]

@@NiceGuyEddy00 By that measure, Starbucks can be the same “mistake,” in terms of buying in at the wrong price. So Alibaba should be no more a mistake than Starbucks, in theory. It’s not a mistake to buy at the wrong price as long as the fundamental analysis is sound, which is the point being made in this video. Also, if one were to actually buy into a company “at the wrong price,” that would be considered a failed investment, because that means you paid too much for it.

[@NiceGuyEddy00]

@@plowerrr3 Not a failed investment. Its a "failed investment" if the stock goes out of business or you misread the fundamentals. A mistake or buying at a wrong price is far from a failed investment.

[@mathieupeloquin-poklukar5001]

Very good analysis. Keep up the good work!

[@sal5475]

Another great video. Love the analysis and ideas.

[@davidmorra9792]

Wow Joseph, this is one of your best videos! Love the content!

[@maiasalyamani]

Man , your videos are getting better and better. ❤️👍

[@redbotbluebotmappingrobots9669]

Another great video! Starbucks is undervalued under $100 even with reduced earnings. I was buyer before the fall and I'm a buyer after!

[@josephogz]

i went back from options trading to long term investing. I am so done losing money and I support your objective in your videos

[@SquatsAndThoughts]

This was a great video man. Love the insights!

[@investindocomestrategia]

great content. greetings from Brazil.

[@chaseingsilver]

I doubled down on Starbucks today at a great price for a fantastic company. I work at one of the biggest hospitals in the world , there is 1 Starbucks there and the line is so long you can't even get in. The Starbucks by my house the line is constantly so long you will wait for awhile, guess what? People wait because they want it that much! Outstanding video sir 👏 one of the best points and presentations you have made.

[@felipesanchez7462]

Yea I went on vacation a few months ago and a hotel had a Starbucks built in. People (including myself)were skipping the free hotel breakfast to get their Starbucks and the line was long. The brand loyalty is there, people love their Starbucks. Im adding to my position

[@chaseingsilver]

@@renaissanceman5847 keep it moving 👇

[@o.c.g.m9426]

This was a really good video. Im definitely looking at BAC, INTEL, & QCOMM now.

[@aerobibs]

Starbucks is a good buy. Especially now! I like that Howard is back, even if his focus is on "baristas". He knows how to run and grow this business

[@XMan-mi6gs]

I like your thoughts and channel very much Josh. About Starbucks. I like your thesis. I have a other opinion about the company. For me it doesn’t fit in my portfolio because I don’t like the products. Then it’s just what Buffet says … think about it long term fin/psych as a farm. If I don’t like the products… I am not able to hold it long term because psych doubt will appear. I also think that Starbucks has a lot of new competition from JDE, Mc Donnalds café, Dunkan Donuts, local coffee counters, etc. And in Europe… it doens’t have a good reputation for it’s coffee. It’s more like a icecream shop over here. It can’t compete with european coffee customs like the Italian coffee culture wich is far more tasty and has a better reputation. So what I mean is.. not looking financial fundamental… I look for a reason to be able to hold the company long term psych. But I see the value… but not the ‘good feel’ for a long term. Hope my thoughts contribute to the discussion. It makes us all better! (I hope). Thank you for all your knowledge you share.

[@jessehamlin3420]

Great video Joseph! Ignore the haters, you are going to do very well over time and I agree with your strategy 100%

[@peterapazidis8889]

7 months after you made this video you were right: starbucks stock was about 73.39 per share and now its above 100

[@AmazingBrando]

Great video. Love the insight on investors.

[@xristossampanis8291]

I really enjoyed that video. Great work.

[@brucebanksshow]

Bringing up Chipotle was spot on. Nothing is more scary than food poisoning so Unionization doesn't scare me at all.

[@meximatthew1345]

The best investment one can do right now is investing on Forex trading though stocks are good but ever since I swapped to Forex, I've seen so much difference

[@henrymatthew2186]

I have been making a lot profit through forex trading which has been the main source of my income

[@henrymatthew2186]

Actually an expert broker handles my forex investments while I invest in some real estate with the profit I make

[@henrymatthew2186]

John Hook is my broker, he's an expert when it comes to trading forex.

[@henrymatthew2186]

He made over $12k with my $2k start up capital

[@henrymatthew2186]

He's available on G mail

[@robertocamacho8586]

Joseph have you ever considered selling covered calls on some of your shares? Is this something you would do in the future?

[@Coda1850]

He can't. M1 finance is inferior to other brokerages in that they do not offer normal trading mechanics, like options.

[@NoxyYT]

@@Coda1850 Options aren't 'normal trading mechanic' - it's derivative which by definition is not 'normal trading technic'

[@Coda1850]

@@NoxyYT 🤣

[@arigutman]

Always a fan of having time in the market and never trying to time it, however, as of late with these market conditions and news on the day to day... I am prudently dollar cost averaging into a select few of my core positions, whether financial investments or REITs... Indexes will do too at this point for me..

[@gscutaru]

What a great video. Thank you!

[@501soap]

When to sell is also important? I missed few stocks to sell which was up around 10 times and now it is under the water. My new rule is sell, if it grows far beyond the value in a short term

[@collectorguy3919]

@@renaissanceman5847 you're talking about different criteria. Sunday suggests selling when a stock suddenly becomes valued far above it's intrinsic value. The likely peak (but it isn't always). You're talking about selling at a loss if the dividend doesn't cover the loss.

[@FuzzyAason]

Exactly... why not sell it when it is overvalued. That's what I experienced as well... I thought of long-term investing. gave away a portfolio which tripled to go negative.

[@anthony8969]

​@@FuzzyAason If your portfolio tripled and then went negative you are clearly not buying high quality businesses and reasonable prices. You shouldn't long term invest if the companies your invested in are not great companies but average ones that you can squeeze some money out of in the long run.

[@FuzzyAason]

@@anthony8969 it certainly has been a volatile ride. But I bought them on the consideration of growing business deals and continual expansion. It did dawn upon me that the price grew too fast for the sales growth to justify though.

[@mathewdasilva8501]

Something you may be failing to realize is the sort of position Starbucks has put itself in. The growth of Starbucks' stores is NOT always profitable. As a former employee we constantly had to close down tons of stores the company tried to open within 2-3 years as they're not profitable and they're essentially using the shotgun method and only keeping the good ones. They're also very highly levered in an environment where interest rates are going to need to skyrocket to curb inflation which can kill their earnings quite quickly. Starbucks also is notorious for not owning any of their locations as opposed to mcdonalds which practically only owns their locations. The massive leasing expenses eat away at their margins and can make them much less competitive when they need to renew their debt obligations, as their corporate credit rating has recently dropped into the B ratings. Just some food for thought, they definitely can recover but there's not much more they can do to optimize their operations as in the case of Chipotle where they had lots of room to improve.

[@tzviru]

if they're staying in the coffeeshop business then true, but if they can expand their brand into more products/services then it's a different story

[@mathewdasilva8501]

@@tzviru It really depends how much more they really can expand. They've already gotten themselves onto grocery store shelves to distribute products direct to consumer and providing their coffee beans through Costco's Kirkland brand for wholesale distribution. The only other things they can really do is slowly try to purchase the locations they're leasing to acquire assets and improve margin, open new stores more conservatively and further investing in coffee bean production. Point being is there's not much more they can do besides run their business better which will take a huge shift in the company's management.

[@mathewdasilva8501]

@♜ Pìnned. by Joseph Carlson Nice fake account.

[@kanahn7402]

Great case study 👌

[@Ditronus.]

Love your videos man. I'm mainly a real estate investor with a small portfolio of rental properties, but I'm getting back into the stock market after being burned at different times in the past. Just planning on sticking to big tech, especially Microsoft. There were the times when I had so much money in some of these big tech companies, but got out with a small profit, like when amazon was in the high 200s after they dropped from their amazon fire phone failure (much like the bear take on Chipotle in this video after their food scandal). Had over a hundred shares, made like $1,000 profit, and tapped out in like two days. Sometimes my 20-year old self just pisses me off, haha. Planning on staying in the market long term and not thinking too much about timing. Rental properties produce great cashflow, but are stressful for many reasons. With the rates going sky high, a good deal is hard to find. Stocks have their own stresses of ownership to be sure, but there is something comforting knowing there are thousands of professionals at Microsoft on my side to make the company succeed.

[@LetsbeYannis]

definitely one of your best videos so far.

[@trentslayton6300]

I wish ackman would have said “you will see” before leaving the show. These analysts are so short term focused and doubting one of the greats

[@fognua]

You are genius sir. It now makes sense how you have earned your beautiful portfolio!

[@demetriustracy]

Damn....that was a motivating video.

[@linkdude64]

Phenomenal video!

[@BrettWordon]

I’m addicted to checking my portfolio everyday 🙈

[@investingwithjeffyt]

The difference between Bill Ackman's investing and our own is he can affect the company's future because he's going to get involved in the turnaround if he sees fit. We just invest and hope.

[@matos2069]

After you enter a position, assuming that it's at a good price, when do you stop buying?

[@schmetterling2169]

I love how this whole episode was a big ole middle fingers to the haters (admittedly myself included, I sold out of starbucks with the discontinuation of the buyback program.)

[@LuKiSCraft]

Wow this was a really interesting video. Thank you for this

[@lolomissa]

great points in this video! 🙌

[@SB-yq6ze]

Love this video. So well done 👍🏼 should watch this one on an annual basis to remind ourselves

[@Anderson0350]

As always I appreciate your high quality content and the fact your stick to your guns.

[@samual8299]

One interesting thing to note about Starbucks, investors are discounting unionization fears, rightfully so, but it could be a huge W for their reputation which is also good for investors long term

[@bobbyward2440]

Its usually a detriment but who knows with the rise of esg

[@The_Bronze_Spoon_Investor]

I agree 😃

[@lovedeep1528]

Thoughts on selling positions and adding to long convictions. How do you balance that strategy w/ how much cash you have on the side?

[@tooloudwind]

Thanks for the video! I keep buying SBUX and it is now the second big position in my portfolio.

[@fnaske]

Love this content!

[@pod-wal]

Great video, thank you!

[@demri123]

Legendary video. Reminds me of 2018 when bitcoin was 6k and everyone hated it

[@MackaWhy]

Currently at $92 on SBUX. Was at $106 but I've been averaging down. I expect it to go down even more with all the news happening in China. I'll likely continue to buy it and hopefully reap the rewards for the next couple decades.

[@Winston0Boogie]

I came in at 110 also. My avg is now 89. I'm buying as it continues to go down. The dividends I admit helps lol I just look at my income as I buy more shares and see it go up but I'm cool with sitting and waiting with SBUX. Was doing the same with TGT. I'm now doing this with SBUX and WFC.

[@WheresWaldo05]

The fair value of sbux is around 65 per share. You are over paying greatly. The time to buy it was in March of 2020.

[@Winston0Boogie]

@@WheresWaldo05 Alright so I'll cost avg downward. The time to buy many stocks would have been March 2020. That was when the slight crash occurred.

[@WheresWaldo05]

@@Winston0Boogie were all those stocks all as overvalued as Starbucks was?

[@Winston0Boogie]

@@WheresWaldo05 some were

[@BluEN1111]

Thank you for the video, great advice!

[@onr990]

This was one of the very best videos on investing on KZbin. I am always pleased with the content you are putting out here.

[@JS-bk4pn]

I have a pretty big position in $ARKK and I know you are no fan of Cathie but I still appreciate your work and your videos! Keep it up!

[@ibrahimmanik2443]

Great advice thanks 🙏🏿 bro

[@thecrazyandthewild]

Great content as always, thank you for your work, Joseph, have a great day!

[@unitedpvp1372]

I'm always impressed with your presentations. Great work Joseph. Started a position into GOOGL and AMZN today.

[@connormichelleotoole5774]

I literally moved from North Dakota to my current city because it has a chipotle. And yes, I own it. Chipotle ❤️

[@markarnoldsfinance2765]

I think when to buy is the easier side for me, it’s when to sell that I am still trying to understand and learn more about. I hope you share next the selling side of things. Thank you!

[@dogelife7901]

That the trick isn't it. Basically if you feel good about company then you stick and if you feel bad you ditch. Then just get lucky. That's it, that's the whole thing.

[@markarnoldsfinance2765]

@@dogelife7901 seems easy until it’s my own stock and I start over thinking things.

[@rmc25]

Solid video. It's the best perspective to have. I've literally seen people talking about automatically liquidating an entire position no matter what if it goes down more than 10% and I just cringe. So short-sighted. Always trying to chase lottery tickets and not actually find great companies with great fundamentals.

[@royalecrafts6252]

If you want great companies just buy dividend paying companies, good ones otherwise is just gamblers falacy

[@5algado]

I only buy when I'm not buying

[@wesleychambers16]

The best time to buy is when the stock is trading below its intrinsic value. Right now startbucks is still overvalued

[@ThePhukst1k]

Our return is most largely influenced over the price we pay. Core principle of financial theory and logic!

[@Gyencha]

This is the kinda shit that gets me fired up. My respect for Ackman after this 📈

[@c0t556]

So why did you lump sum bought into SBUX, instead of Dollar Cost Averaging?

[@DailyDoseOfDividend]

Sick video, as always...

[@aleck67]

Thank you, was very interesting point of view about Chipotle. I would suggest to you, to see few interviews/lectures from Lauren Tempelton, if you haven't already, really talking about same question, "when to buy a stock"

[@bobbycarter8963]

Great video man. Keep up the good work

[@peterswellnesschiropractic4068]

What a fantastic video.

[@achaosg]

I use charting for my Entries into companies. Typically, I use a Daily or Weekly Chart Time Frame with a 600Exponential Moving Average. Looking for Bounces off the top of the 600 EMA or a Break through above the 600EMA. It actually works quite well for Swing Trading as well. Some Companies can be more Choppy like INTC on the Daily, so I then Switch to Weekly Time Frame. Also just use basic trends for high and low Ranges during Consolidation Periods and buy at the low of the consolidation periods or the break outs going up. This can be used for Longer Term swing Trades going long or short on a company and can just give you a nice Entry point for yearly holds. Even if you do buy and the stock just dips quite a bit afterwards, just keep dollar cost averaging into it once it drops more. Have patience in overall moves and do not pay too close attention to price action daily because that will just affect you emotionally and cause you to overthink your original decision. You can also set a stop loss on your big positions during your initial Entries and adjust accordingly based on the stock price over time. Hope this all helps you. /G\

[@PRIDEMACHINERY]

Good job and very good explanation.

[@Richb711]

I'm looking at adding to my MSFT position and opening a position in SBUX at these prices. Just hope can save enough money to open a meaningful size positions.

[@Basic-Reviews]

Great content!!,thanks!! loved the BA discussion. Don’t listen to the FUDERS. SBUX will rise again long term. I’ve bought like there is no tomorrow, I’m also down and I don’t care. Long term vision is the key, and while you wait you are rewarded by getting nice dividends from a top high quality company. Cheers.

[@Reinier020]

I think the example of oil companies that Joseph gives is also very accurate and SBUX has a better long term view than Oil does in my opinion, looking at market trends

[@jameswood9772]

There is ALWAYS a way to make money in this market! While the market has not been set to easy mode recently, there are still nft to flip, solid coins to stake, IDOs to ape into, trades to make, yields to farm. Never stop hustling for those gains!

[@Robertpersonalfinance]

I don't agree with some of your views, with others I do. But anyways, I like your content and thank you for putting up the videos and not disappearing during these non-favourable times.

[@albertleyva476]

Amazing 👏

[@Alluic5]

It’s easy to say this / pay 30x 40x earnings when CMG grew earnings at a 40% CAGR from the bottom

[@harrymajarian9680]

I was gonna buy 2 large pizzas from dominos today. When they told me $43 was the total I went straight to Costco and got a pizza there for $10

[@dev2594]

It’s hard to show your wins and losses, commend you on that. No one can time a bottom, just buy good businesses at reasonable prices.

[@michaeldew7904]

I'm actually eating Chipotle right now. Good timing.

[@blacklotus4076]

Rip to your bathroom☠️⚰️

[@garytai9585]

Thanks Joe for the great example. Any chance we talk about SPG? I am optimistic on its potential.

[@NickOloteo]

I don’t care when I buy a high quality company. It’s high quality and o worm selling.

[@nhanhuynh2443]

Lots of things to consider here. First of all, in Ackman'a interview, he mentioned "we joined the board" and that's the key phrase there. Ackman's style of investing is when he saw a company got in trouble, he'd join and help them make a decision. There's a huge difference between Active and Passive investment. What he's doing is active investing. He can turn things around with his vote. We're more like passive investors. So I don't think comparing our investment stratergies and his is a good choice. If you want to learn more about his investing style, watch some videos of him explaining his thought on Active Investing and Herbal Life. I also think that comparing SBUX and CMG at this point is not good. Especially when they have different CEOs and visions.

[@allisknu11]

You read my mind. Great point.

[@autophenom32648]

Would you say that Netflix is in a similar situation right now?

[@p.c.h.6721]

It’s well known that you make your money when you buy, not when you sell, and I wouldn’t buy anything, not a thing since the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2021, which is what I’ve done, you evaluate the probability of a recession and even if you are a value stock investor, you wait as there was, and there is, a very high probability that you can buy those same stocks a lotttt cheaper, buying during an inflationary period when rates are going up and debt is at an all time high is just not what I would do.

[@jacklanzillotti8117]

Good video. Always good seeing Josh Brown and Steve Weiss with egg on their faces.

[@madhurkarki1842]

I really liked questions Josh asked? He addressed very legitimate questions that most people at that time were concerned about. Really good discussion between two of them.

[@deany252]

Super video

[@kblmnop67891]

Always buy

[@marklevy1785]

I like SBUX as a good dividend growth company even in the middle of the pandemic it raised its dividend, I like that commitment so SBUx has been part of my portfolio and will be long term as long as they keep raising the dividend yearly if you focus on the income generated by the Dividend then the stock price becomes less important

[@jaskamakynen7766]

Buying is easy. Selling is hard. You could cover selling instead ;)

[@胡赛武]

Best idea about investment, focus on farm rather than quotation

[@The_Bronze_Spoon_Investor]

Who am I? That’s the ultimate question 🙋‍♂️😆😆😆

[@Robertpersonalfinance]

so interesting to look back at these interviews....probably at that time the majority would agree with the group. Same these days when you watch CNBC. It's easy to get caught up in short-term sentiment and just agree with the herd.

[@JamesBond-zk9zo]

Good stuff 👏🏽 👍

[@TwoLargePizzas]

Great video. Only time will tell and I think it's better to buy SBUX when there's fear and at a discount rather than chasing it at the highs.

[@tazman3726]

SBUX is here to stay no reason to not buy

[@JosephCarlsonShow]

Time will tell. To be clear, I expect a very difficult short-term road for starbucks. China just closed the tesla factory and they're doing crazy lockdowns still. So over the short term I see serious bad sales comps in china. But give it 2-3 years and I think we will see a company that people largely want to own again.

[@kaihaxton144]

you have quickly become one of my fav content creators here. quality content and some weathered advice that for me a young guy can take into account. for that i thank you good sir

[@dormmma2619]

I like your thinking holding long term is slow but guarantee profit for now