Here's The TRUTH About The Potential Gulf Hurricane (Late September)

[@just_weather]

Main point i want to make...there is high confidence that a storm will develop...however it's not expected to develop until early next week. Models will have no clue until that happens so there is no reason to be scared about models you see on social media. Everyone can enjoy their weekend and a just keep this in the back of your mind. We will know so much more by Monday/Tuesday. Potential impacts come late next week 9/26-9/30. Be safe friends! - Jonathan

[@Barbara-d5t8n]

@@just_weather thank you I can enjoy my football games on Sunday 😄

[@just_weather]

@@Barbara-d5t8n yes you can! - Jonathan

[@milagrosmogro49]

Hi from saint Petersburg fla, Jonathan I have a question? Where's Mr. Nazario?

[@milagrosmogro49]

I haven't seen him lately.

[@blondellcolleton4584]

​@@just_weather I have a question I live in South Carolina do you it's coming here just asking?

[@Lee-xf7bk]

Thank you Jonathan. No hype. No predictive thumbnails that unnecessarily scare people about storms that haven't even formed yet. Just the raw science about predicting what may or may not happen.

[@just_weather]

Absolutely! Thank you for tuning in! - Jonathan

[@16MedicRN]

Isn't it annoying? Jonathan is a breath of fresh air ❤

[@c.b.-11]

He acts like other weather channels on KZbin hasn't said the same thing

[@just_weather]

@@c.b.-11 I’m talking about the ones that just show the changing models. You know that. Stop trolling

[@16MedicRN]

@@just_weather Jonathan has entered BEAST mode, lol.

[@greyfoxnola]

Thank you so much for what you're doing. This channel is absolutely top-notch. As a homeowner on the Gulf Coast, it's nice to just get the information without someone trying to scare me to keep me engaged.

[@just_weather]

I’m really glad you found it helpful! Thank you for watching! - Jonathan

[@ashrithreddy5967]

Wonderful be safe everyone and will keep checking back for updates on the storm!

[@matthenagan8189]

Thanks for actual weather information and not fake news. Some people will just believe anything that anyone puts out there for whatever reason. Thank you for actually forecasting the forecast and not just the models.

[@just_weather]

@@matthenagan8189 you are very welcome. I don’t want to let a computer dictate my forecast haha. Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

[@NickeyVamp]

Yes, Matt Johnathan, is the best for weather no fear mongering just science.

[@Rocky48SM]

Thanks for that info. I live in Southeast Texas Houston. We were hammered by Hurricane Beryl and had to replace our roof. I will stay tuned for further updates. This is very scary for everyone. May God bless us all.

[@NickeyVamp]

Soon we will see most of Texas and Louisiana with blue tarps on the roofs..I remember flying into Louisiana and wondering what all the blue was on the houses.. 😢 for refrence I came from California. I hope your insurance helps with roof repair. Much ❤

[@jasono1993]

@Rocky48SM God bless you and everyone else as well, thank you!

[@leonardalawes6623]

Sorry to say when they 1st started talking about this I said even TX isn't off the hook for this one yet! It's a shame that it is so likely that it may hit someone who has already taken a hit this season. I'm in FL , basically homeless cuz a huge tree crushed my kitchen. I'm still here packing and have been dreading what I thought would ultimately be the I storm Issac. I storms have been notoriously bad for FL. It would be a blessing if it fizzes out, Francine, Beryl, and Debby have done enough damage here in Gulf states. I JUST looked at NOAA and only 2 yellow X's in the Atlantic @ a 10 & 20% chance, but if you read the lowdown it says this has a 60% chance of developing in the next 7 days but no depression or invest to even mark on the map!

[@RamonaLisa71]

My experience living on the Mississippi Gulf Coast is that weather can change up til the last hours so I very much appreciate your forecast with all of the important info and I will be subscribing to you and watching for updates! Sending Love from Gulfport

[@shadrach6299]

My son lives in Ocean Springs, Ms

[@RamonaLisa71]

Ocean Springs is beautiful.I love to visit the beach there​@@shadrach6299

[@iggymcgillicutty6122]

I appreciate the lack of over-hype, part of why I look here rather than the television. Keep up the solid information. Thank you

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! I appreciate you watching! - Jonathan

[@katchmeifyoucan1131]

Thank you for keeping it real with us and please keep "doing what you do". After Hurricane Ian, there were so many complaints of not having enough time to prepare in SW and Central Florida; with your forecast we at least get a little heads up so we know to be prepared. Thanks from West Palm Beach!

[@kimkramarski-smith774]

You SHOULD be prepared at the start of the season. It alleviates having to deal with crowds , empty shelves & utter chaos !

[@williamwerneth5116]

Thank you for clearing this up. I’ve been seeing completely polarizing forecasts and predictions on this. This is the kind of explanation I was looking for. 🙏

[@jasono1993]

@@williamwerneth5116 same! He hit it spot on what I was looking for as well. Great analysis of the models!

[@sharonjackson1216]

We live in the western Florida panhandle, so we are watching this one. Thanks, Jonathan!

[@just_weather]

Absolutely! Thank you for tuning in! - Jonathan

[@hollyc4624]

Thank you for posting the thought process and data used to track these storms. We are in Southwest Georgia and were in Panama City, FL when Hurricane Michael hit. It was not really hyped up until very late in the track and that made the devastation a shock to everyone.

[@just_weather]

My gosh that’s terrible. Hope everything was ok. - Jonathan

[@hollyc4624]

@@just_weather Thanks for that. The house was hit by two giant trees that basically wiped it out. But luckily no one needed to live there, we were in the process of cleaning it out. In some ways it was difficult to not have the chance to go through everything because of the damage but then again, we sold it “as is” and it became someone else’s problem. It was almost entirely wind damage to that area. Damage to homes, most trees down, no power for quite awhile following the storm, even the train was knocked over. I have been through many storms and never seen that level of damage without significant warning ahead of time. It went from an area to watch to a cat5 in a few days. And many didn’t evacuate because they only evacuated the flood areas. I definitely watch storms more closely than I did!

[@lovegrows7814]

Thank you for the information! We are still waiting to make our decision on our vacation to Panama City. I am hoping by Monday there will be better agreements with the models.

[@WrenBulldog]

So refreshing seeing and hearing un slanted weather reporting , I bet other meteorologists give you grief at times , so thank you for showing and tell it like it is 😊

[@PaulaTourville-po7fg]

In SW Florida nothing about rainy season has been normal .... So expecting the same out of any storm formation !

[@montecarlo4294]

You’ve helped calm my anxiety! I live in Alabama and the local weather folks are ready to declare this thing the next Ivan. Of course, I’ll still be very aware, but your report has helped settle my nerves 🙏

[@just_weather]

I’m glad! I’m glad you’re still staying aware, but no need to worry at this time as there is so much uncertainty. Alabama is unfortunately still in play but to talk it up like Ivan is insane at the moment. We have you covered. - Jonathan

[@CaroleScarborough-w7y]

I love your calm and sensible reporting, and lack of hype. However, you won my loyalty forever because you correctly refer to the GULF and not the GOLF, the way so many weather reporters do.

[@SusanMusser643]

I am scheduled to have surgery in Tampa 2 October. Praying for no storm near Florida Panhandle or Tampa.

[@AceAsriel]

tunning in from Louisiana and as a high school student trying to go to college for meteorology this helps so much thank you for covering this!

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! If you ever need anything don’t hesitate to reach out! - Jonathan

[@clairebanasiewicz8888]

It’s just nice to be aware of a possible storm, this gives us the opportunity to prepare and take notice of updates just in case.

[@doctordetroit4339]

Thanks for this explanation......very well done!!

[@just_weather]

Thanks for the feedback! You’re welcome! - Jonathan

[@joannevolz8985]

I’m near New Orleans. Thank you for being true. There is so much on social media about where it’s going! Where is what going? Thank you again. I’ll be watching you!

[@BlueDoginRedSoLa]

Living in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, I appreciate your in depth analysis and frank comments about the speculation of current atmospheric models. Liked, and subscribed.

[@andrewhicks7502]

Thank you for sharing your knowledge and down-to-earth perspective! Great to grasp why and how the weather moves through the Gulf region!

[@just_weather]

You’re very welcome! - Jonathan

[@ReynaldoSeguraWX]

Awesome update as always, Jonathan! Tuning in from Austin, TX!

[@guyboudreaux9261]

Thanks for calm facts and no scare tactics. Watching from Southern Mississippi

[@just_weather]

Welcome! And you’re welcome! -Jonathan

[@LauraFlanagan-ey4eg]

I live in Costa Rica where locals spend ZERO time worrying about what is going to happen. Storms can come up without any kind of warning whatsoever. Albeit, Costa Rica is not prone to hurricanes but last Wed I watched a storm come through from the balcony of my home and within minutes saw the river overtake its bank and wash through a little under 1/4 of my homestead. Lost about 15 or so trees but I am grateful all of my animals survived (2 horses, 1 donkey, 4 dogs, 1 cat, and an about 2 dozen chickens. I totally appreciate your transparent and very real approach to forecasting Jonathan - thank you!

[@just_weather]

Wow I’m glad they were all ok! Hope everything is well…and thanks for the kind words! - Jonathan

[@crizpy9119]

I'm sorry but how is this relevant? Here in Florida one cant just "not worry about storms" if a Cat 3+ is coming right at you, I live directly on a river near the mouth of the gulf. I like to have an idea as far out as possible so I can get supplies and a plan in place before the crowds. Its not about worry, its about being aware and able to prepare.

[@heatherbornrealtorresfisla1299]

Love all the details. Put together perfectly! Thank you!

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! Thanks for tuning in. - Jonathan

[@JoeTomasone]

Good breakdown. Thanks for doing this. (Tampa, FL)

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

[@brendastrickler9034]

Alabama Gulf Coast …. Always interested during hurricane season …. God bless you 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻

[@just_weather]

You as well! - Jonathan

[@rippedtopshelf6806]

Hey, Jonathan, watching from beautiful Venice, FL. Just had a huge surprise thunderstorm blow through after the forecast was "partly cloudy". Florida in the summer! Love your stuff. Respectfully, I have a terminology suggestion to answer the "but we don't have a storm yet" critics. We have the *precursors* to a storm.

[@roneddins8395]

Thanks I like the fact that you look for the reasons why systems develop not just sensationalism like others do.

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! - Jonathan

[@patriciacockerill]

Thank you for a good presentation without the scare tactics. Grateful in Bradenton/Sarasota, SWFL

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

[@NickeyVamp]

Thank you for your coverage.. No fear mongering and just science. I am so Thankful for your content sir. Much ❤

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! So glad you found it helpful! - Jonathan

[@Leatherneck88]

Appreciate the info. Clearwater Beach FL is where I’m from.

[@JewelMaultsby]

We will be fine a little rain and wind

[@clarkbrady2786]

Ty for clearing things up. Great job.

[@just_weather]

Appreciate you watching! - Jonathan

[@sjcflawless]

I think it’s going to be all about where the High Pressure system is going, with the Low up top.

[@jjjames6894]

Love ur grounded, clear-headed yet acknowledging analysis as always, thank u! Like some completely ignore the hype OR go crazy with it but I love how u challenge or at least explain both sides and let us decide, well done sir!👊

[@just_weather]

Appreciate that! Yanks for tuning in! - Jonathan

[@jjjames6894]

@@just_weather thank u keep up the hard work ur the best!!!

[@iglapsu88]

Thanks again Jonathan! The meteorological voice of reason!

[@TwilightFireFly100]

Thanks for the update and the transparency in your report!👍

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! Thanks for tuning in again! - Jonathan

[@chriscody3030]

🌊 Steering currents are EVERYTHING, in the life of a hurricane !

[@leahrivera3385]

Rockport Texas watching

[@maryaventura]

thank you, Jonathan. A lot of good information.

[@dchager]

Latest NHC shows NOTHING in Gulf in 7 days. But... Forecasters are SO desperate for a storm.

[@skywatcher7272]

GEOENGINEERING I do appreciate you giving us a heads up. God Bless you 🙏

[@marielee3347]

Good , clean report. Thank you. 🎉

[@terryanderson5947]

Thank you for the great weather information. Keep up the good work and we look forward to the next update.

[@just_weather]

Really appreciate that and for you tuning in! - Jonathan

[@chefgregory1201]

FANTASTIC VIDEO! ONE OF THE BEST! MODELS ARE TOOLS NOT METEOROLOGISTS!

[@just_weather]

Really appreciate that! Thank you! - Jonathan

[@JeanSecor]

Thank you yes you cleared up a lot for me!

[@williamcarl4200]

No worries, I plan my storm response to the threat...always. Active damage control, preparation, and readiness are the key to victory against the wind and wave. But when they say run...

[@mariaguilott5398]

Thank you for the information from Louisiana.

[@ReiTsukinoVT]

Like you said only thing we can safely assume is something is developing and moving into the Gulf. Past that there's too many variables. Best thing we can do is go over emergency kits and review evac plans as precautions.

[@xopure1]

i commend your approach

[@heylenvelazquez8902]

Gracias por tu serio imf.del tiempi ✋️🇵🇷

[@churchlady31]

Thank you so much!

[@HaroldKimball]

Please feel free to go deep with the science. There’s many scientists out here that would like it I’m sure. Thank you

[@just_weather]

Sounds great to me! - Jonathan

[@DramaTubeTv]

Lafayette Louisiana cat 5 watch!

[@BryanLasko]

Perhaps cleaning the slate clean with these models that can't ever agree on a track and forecast, perhaps new models need implemented, but hey you do keep it real.

[@just_weather]

Believe me the models are great. They have been predicting a storm in gulf for a couple of weeks. It’s just narrowing down the details! - Jonathan

[@jessjess23brooks89]

The models have been wild this year. I've been a weather bug Floridian for years, track storms for weeks. I've never seen this much consistent divergence or miscalculations. The Euro has always been the go to for track. The GFS for intensity. Everything has been thrown through a loop and I'm not an expert onto why. I'm massively frustrated and this is only a hobby lol

[@CherylDailyNews]

👍👍👍. Jonathan, what ever happened to "cloud seeding?" Since it hasn't developed, why can't we try something to stop the development? I would love that as I'm on pins and needles in Lake Charles, La. Thanks so much for the updates and ur expertise of course. I hope u have a wonderful w/e as well. 🙏✌🤗

[@lynnsadler7920]

All make sense to me 😊

[@chriscody3030]

Steering Currents are EVERYTHING, when it comes to the MOVEMENT of a hurricane ! (That is what was meant in the comment )

[@brandonbrady3Brady-u8d]

Johnathan what is concerning is the global tekeconnections like TGE NAO AND AO are negative and the PNA is positive which lends to long wave troughs in the eastern 2/3 of the country. So if anything forms it looks to go east if the TC is strong. Weaker system will go west. Stronger system will follow upper air pattern while a weaker system will follow the low level steering flow. My educated guess is that

[@just_weather]

That is correct and it doesn’t bode well getting into October with more potential storms moving through the Caribbean. - Jonathan

[@stevenmyrick6873]

Thanks for the real deal. I wrapped my whole house in plastic wrap lol. Gulf Shores Alabama here.

[@isyouagrass9772]

YESSSS NEW DESK

[@miked91101]

Kinda like forecasting a big snowstorm for the Northeastern states, it could be really intense, or amount to not that much of a deal...

[@YTStoleMyUsername]

Travel planned from FL - LA next weekend, I assume best to just wait until next week to cancel or decide?

[@just_weather]

I think that’s a good idea to just wait for now! Would alter anything until next week if it looks like it could threaten your areas. - Jonathan

[@joeanderson8839]

It is impossible to track a storm until the center is located. There is no center until the storm is organized and spinning. Even with all the models and information we have in meteorology today, we still can't predict the exact track and strength of a storm. People should prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and pay attention to what is happening.

[@mariacampos8234]

The Euro is like the slow little brother that every has to wait to catch up... Not the first time it's been behind the 8 ball...

[@just_weather]

@@mariacampos8234 very true!

[@thechiefwes296]

Jonathan. Honest opinion- GFS vs Euro.

[@just_weather]

For this scenario…probably lean GFS. Euro AI has the trof there so I’m thinking euro is out to lunch. Even then euro brings it back to the north after being weak initially. - Jonathan

[@tomgreen1721]

The storm just flew in from the Gulf. And boy is it arms tired.

[@user-tr8rg1xg9e]

Why is the Euro stomping on Texas?

[@PattyandWillie]

Hi Johnathan....watching you from Central Florida. I have a question, and l am asking with all due respect. Since this thing technically hasn't even developed yet, do you as a meteorologist think there is a possibility this could actually fizzle out? Its probably just my wishful thinking, but what are the odds? Thank you so much for your time....and be safe! 🇺🇸🙏❤️ Also, l subscribed!

[@just_weather]

Hey welcome! I’m in central Florida too! You should watch News 6 if you don’t already! I will never say never when it comes to weather…but I think the odds of it fizzling out are pretty low. Guidance has suggested this system for a couple of weeks because of a large forcing mechanism know as the madden-Julian oscillation. That helps to get thunderstorms going and that will be moving through the Caribbean. Upper air environment also looks very conducive. Dry air could be hanging out in the western Gulf and it’s my hope it sucks it all in and dies but I’m probably wishcasting there! - Jonathan

[@PattyandWillie]

@@just_weather Thank you Jonathan! Yes, that's pretty much what I thought, but I suppose we can always hope 🙏. If/where it makes impact, l hope everyone will be as prepared and safe as possible. I absolutely watch news channel 6 whenever I get the opportunity! 👍👍Be safe!

[@duaneclark7108]

What about the ECMWF-AI? It seems to follow the GFS and Canadian more closely. What exactly makes the AI different?

[@hellochasers]

It's Ai

[@Mikeycristo]

Hello Jonathan!, Just out of curiousity- if im flying into the riviera maya on the 25th, how ruined is my vacation?

[@just_weather]

Hi! I think you’re going to be ok. Might be some rain but the storm Will be slow to develop and by the time you get there it should be north of you! - Jonathan

[@Mikeycristo]

@@just_weather My concern would be the overall flooding as opposed to the wind. Any insight on expected rainfall next week?

[@cks57youto53]

It looks like it's breaking apart ... The cool front comming thru Texas will push it off Texas i think 🤔

[@just_weather]

I think so. Not completely out of the woods but I think it should miss most of Texas. Probably not breaking apart though. - Jonathan

[@vincentsilva7910]

and there is a cool front coming down which will blow it away, God is in control never to early or late.

[@just_weather]

No the front will steer it into land. Once in the Gulf it has nowhere else to go. - Jonathan

[@donnahalperin2840]

I have a quiestion. I’m in west Englewood. About 11/2 miles from lemon bay. If it ends up hitting near Tampa should I be concerned about surge from the bay? I’ve been through many hurricanes having lived in the VI for years then Fl. Winds don’t scare me. Flooding does😬

[@just_weather]

With you on that! I would think you would be ok but I would have to look up the flood zones. Don’t know Tampa zones off the top of my head. Would depend upon where it comes in as well. We will have you covered with that information as well if it threatens! - Jonathan

[@donnahalperin2840]

@@just_weather I’m way south from Tampa. Englewood is near Venice. I’m not in a flood zone but recent thunderstorms have brought water up higher than Ian. We got hit bad by that one.

[@khaiag]

Is it rare for the models to have such varying forecasts??

[@just_weather]

At this stage of the game no. Once the center of the storm develops they start to converge much better!!a Jonathan

[@jonathanliberty4136]

dont freak out?!?!, there is so many possibilities, it could be a monster run coming next

[@just_weather]

There are! But there can be a mister from Florida to Texas and that would change a million times between now and Monday. - Jonathan

[@patrickkinney4998]

How reliable is the euro?

[@just_weather]

It’s typically very good but it has struggled this year. - Jonathan

[@cavalierfan2008]

It's not showing in NOAA. Soooooo is it actually there?

[@just_weather]

Yes it is showing in NOAA. The first graphic I showed. You have to click the seven day button. It’s a zero percent chance for two days so it won’t show up on the first screen that pops up. - Jonathan.

[@tiredofthetyranny9874]

YEAH I was shown a picture of a hurricane the size of the actual GULF itself 😂😂😂😂 My wife feeds right into it and is freaked the F out 😂😂😂😂

[@just_weather]

I will say this is looking like it will be a very large storm in terms of size! But that’s pretty wild! - Jonathan

[@stevenrich8443]

The Euro Geopotential looks like a boot and you said it "squashes" it. I see what you did there.

[@WildwoodSubRailfan]

Still too far out for the UKMET to see it? I know it doesn't go as far out as the other models.

[@WxCenterNazario]

UK does indeed have it. Pulls it up into the Yucatan channel

[@just_weather]

UK has it! - Jonathan

[@josephb.5276]

I’m going with the euro it’s the best model. It’s proven to be more accurate. Thanks Jonathan for keeping us informed.

[@Als11able]

Luke 21:25 “And there will be signs in the sun, in the moon, and in the stars; and on the earth distress of nations, with perplexity, the sea and the waves roaring; interesting leading up to October Feast of Trumpets (8 days)

[@16MedicRN]

Do 'models' need to prove some level of accuracy before they get a name (GFS, Euro, Canadian, etc) or can 'anyone' just post a model? Love for you to talk about that sometime 😊

[@bobbydee1187]

I think wind will sheer it apart.

[@constancewilkinson3410]

Amen

[@RodneySlinger]

Cool 😎

[@AkronKid330]

Do you think a storm can hit SW, Fl?

[@just_weather]

Unfortunately it’s still in the realm of possibilities. Although I do think it is a little more likely north of you. But that’s not set in stone. - Jonathan

[@Camille-z5n]

Manufacturing another storm

[@KrissyMeow]

Paging Ryan Hall for scaring everyone. 😂

[@just_weather]

😂

[@KrissyMeow]

​​@@just_weather You the man! Knowing exactly what I'm saying. 😂❤

[@nancyvernon3017]

Whoa...., you said Sept. 27th or 28th? Bcuz, those are the dates for the best viewing of the comet.

[@just_weather]

YES! You’re good! Also will have a maybe even better shot October 14-24! - Jonathan

[@larrylyons-hr7eu]

Can't determine it yet until the weather manipulators decide where it goes and with what intensity ,correct?

[@just_weather]

Nope. Thats not a thing. If it was we would know. - Jonathan

[@Barbara-d5t8n]

I am so glad that look at your channel because some of people are just saying it is goin to Florida then Louisiana and I was hurricane Katrina in Hurricane Ike I want look at a channel that goin to give me the good bad and the ugly. I thank you very much that you break it down to us to have a better understanding for us that live in golf I am in Louisiana know I just want someone to be honest and not hype it all up and scare people.

[@just_weather]

We will keep you posted for sure! - Jonathan

[@Barbara-d5t8n]

@@just_weather thank you very much I am have ankle replacement surgery on Monday the 23 I am goin go to have to have more time to get prepare.

[@katchmeifyoucan1131]

Exactly! He gives us the why behind the what is happening. No hype or fear mongering!

[@constancewilkinson3410]

My Faith is in Jesus. Mighty God is in control of it all. Lord knows living in Florida will test your faith. Lord willing looking forward to November. Anen

[@montanaminck2226]

Never heard Tampa, more like Pensacola

[@jenniferbooth9348]

Has there even been a scenario where we have talked about a possible storm that has yet to develop like this storm?

[@just_weather]

There has. Last year there was a scenario with Philippe and Rina. Different set up because they were impacting each other but that was expected to impact the Caribbean and never did because they inpacted each other’s track and never came into fruition. - Jonathan

[@jenniferbooth9348]

@@just_weather I forgot about those two but now that you said that I do remember

[@rodneyshelby4371]

Looks like though that Ridge of high pressure the euro is trying to show goes away and the storm lifts out of the Bay of Campeche into the Western tip of Florida and strengthens slightly to a 990 MB storm on the newest Euro run that's a slight change from previous Euro runs this is the strongest of the Euro has showed this so far 990