You can know the stock is the 10 bagger. However, if you use ETF's stock picks sector by sector or sub sector where those stocks are the bottom up leaders; you will get a solid return within 2-5 years. For example, XLF (spdr financial sector etf), one of the very solid stock was MKTX, bottomed up in Oct 2008 wheres SPY bottomed up in Mar 2009. For consumer staples, there where TJX, COST, CHD, CASY were the leaders bottoming up much earlier than S & P 500 index