How Far Should the NBA 3-Point Line Actually Be?

[@hoss6981]

I would argue that it should be even further out say around 26.5-27 feet. This is because if you take more recent data the shooters have gotten better percentages have gone up. Also the shots around the rim skew the FG % higher for 2 point shots. If you look at fg% for all shots 6feet-24feet which are surprising close your points per shot is even lower. So you must push the 3 point line back up until the 3 point % is about 31.6% and from what I could find that’s right around 26.5-27 feet. You could have the line just run out of bounds at the coaches box. This would make for much better spacing and a much better game imo.

[@hoss6981]

Nerds broke the game now they can fix it

[@SkeledroMan]

Should there be a 1 point zone too? for dunks or rebounds in the paint that have a very high chance of going in

[@a1rbagj.344]

Wow, is this a coincidence? I just talked with one of my group members about 4 pointers in Big3 league and other stuff relating to sports data analysis this afternoon. Just as I arrived at home a couple mins ago, I turned on my computer and saw this fresh new video which talks about NBA 3-point line. So I immediately commented before watching.

[@KenJee_ds]

Hope you enjoyed it!

[@88fjoe]

It's obvious to many that the current 3pt line is not far enough from the rim but it's fascinating to see that there's data backing it up and to pinpoint to where the ideal distance is, super fascinating work! It's no wonder that more and more teams such as the Utah Jazz are trying to eliminate the mid-range 2's entirely and replace those with 3's instead, but it's also interesting to see players like CP3 does not shy away from the mid-range 2's in the clutch (and has the full freedom to do so) likely backed by their individual statistics that is way above the league average thus making it a worthwhile shot.

[@KenJee_ds]

Very true! There are about 5 players (last time I checked) where a mid range 2 makes sense.

[@piyushzope10]

I was really anaware about the points system in basketball 🏀 it's really good analysis... One thing is sure that players need to be focused on from where they are throwing a basketball towards the hoop 😀 It makes the game challenging and may increase customer engagement...

[@KenJee_ds]

They definitely are!

[@piyushzope10]

@@KenJee_ds Yepppp

[@MildlyAmusingComedyC]

As a basketball fan and a data science enthusiast I loved this video. I would be very interested to see how something like that (moving the 3 point line back) would effect the way defensive schemes are designed and how it would change the game as a whole. I have also talked to people in the past about the idea of simply removing those corner threes and having the arc be 23.75 feet all the way to the sidelines. I think cutting out that corner 3 would have a huge effect on both offensive and defensive schemes.

[@KenJee_ds]

Glad to hear you enjoyed it!!

[@WingfanSports]

Love this video and this kind of content. I can imagine that if the line was moved back to 25 feet that there would be a massive trickle down effect. Great shooters would be even more valuable and spacing would be insane in the nba for teams who can convert from that far out. Corner threes would be a cheat code at that point too since they cant be moved back any further. I wonder if the court will ever get bigger to address this. I for one like how the NBA is played right now but am always fascinated by major changes and how teams adapt.

[@KenJee_ds]

Thanks! I think these are the questions that should be asked before they make any sort of rule changes. We see this in all major sports now, organizations change the rules without thinking about what the implications for the game may be!

[@jmgonzales7701]

i think the court should get smaller so there wont be much spacing

[@a_vickyp8360]

#40: Inspirational project video here! When I watched the graphs, and then the Steph Curry one, I thought about the sweet spot on finding insights from the best players to transfer that to coaches who train new talents. Somehow the data can lead to something. I'm positive about that! #66daysofdata

[@KenJee_ds]

I agree! Data can lead to limitless possibilities!

[@aidanprince3912]

what application do you use to make the graphs and analysis

[@isaactrussell5121]

Love the analysis, thought it was super interesting! Thought of another question as I am working toward switch fields to data science. What types of things would you want to see on a resume/CV with no formal data science background besides data science projects, and github?

[@KenJee_ds]

Thanks for watching! While data science has a large technical component, there are also elements of organization, prioritization and management. I would highlight the experience that you have where you have to prioritize work. I would also talk about your experiences working with others in technical roles. I hope this helps!

[@soujanyadash7831]

How to get data for doing analytics? For eg. On Japanese national football team

[@KenJee_ds]

You can probably scrape it from their website

[@benjaminchen4367]

That Steph graph was kinda surprising

[@KenJee_ds]

Yeah, it was. It should be noted, that there really is a pretty small sample size there. Still, it shows the kind of generational talent that he is.

[@puureshooter7]

Technically speaking, shouldn’t the 3 point line ideally be around 5-10 feet from the rim due to the rapid organic drop in fg% from 60% to 40% you pointed out at 1:59? And then move the free throw line back to 25 feet, have all shooting fouls yield 2 free throws except and-1s which would still be 1 ft. This makes the ev for 2s, 3s, and non and-1 ft trips equal at roughly 1.2. (Given the average ft% now is about 75% at 15 feet, I’m assuming it would be about 60% at 25 feet)

[@puureshooter7]

This would also increase the volume of shots in the “lost art of the midrange” as people like to say 😂 meaning shots taken from 10-20 feet. Please let me know what you think thanks Ken!

[@ts214121]

Is the magic distance where the 3-point percentage would be 33.3%? The percentage in the 2024-25 season is currently 36%.

[@hoss6981]

Right around 27 feet the points per shot based on shooting percentage would even out

[@R3vokenDallout1on]

Most players are starting to shoot deeper threes anyway so I don't think moving the line back a foot and a half will do that much. I could be wrong tho.

[@KenJee_ds]

I think this is mainly because of how defenses are playing now right around the line, they have more open shots from further back. If they had more contested threes from that range I would expect it could be different. Admittedly, this is more of a thought exercise than a true experiment so who knows haha

[@R3vokenDallout1on]

@@KenJee_ds Ight, that makes sense

[@r.forrestblount9222]

Ken, the 3 point shot means that defenses can no longer help against offensive ball penetration because 3 point shooters have become so expert and are stationed too far away from the basket. With the increase in dribbling ability along with an increase in athleticism to convert alley-oop dunks so easily, even the 2-0n-2 game has become impossible to stop. Basketball's offensive/defensive balance has been totally ruined. Defenses can neither take away the 3 point or 2 point game in today's NBA as the rules are currently set up. When there was only a 2 point basket, defenses could help on ball penetration and know that a distance shot would not destroy their ability to compete in the game. Moving the 3 point basket out further only exacerbates this problem by creating more space that a defense has to cover after positioning its resources to defend the 2 point game. If the defense chooses to shut down the 3 point shooters by staying with them, then the defense is decimated with the 2 point game. The NBA has a structural problem that data analytics cannot fix.

[@jmgonzales7701]

so what is the fix?

[@hoss6981]

Move the line back to 27 feet and it goes out of bounds at the coaches box and get rid of defensive 3 seconds, problem solved

[@bm-rf4bc]

#GoodTalk

[@KenJee_ds]

Thanks!

[@AnnaMorgenstern]

What this tells me is that shots made from the paint should be worth 1 pt.

[@KenJee_ds]

You're not wrong haha. My thought is the NBA would be more inclined to move the 3 point line than change points in the paint though

[@brandonsager223]

Get rid of it all together I say!

[@KenJee_ds]

One way to do it!

[@MatthewJones-g4g]

The three-point line should be about 100 feet away from the rim