Kentucky Derby 2024 Top 8 Contenders

[@lexwill8929]

Great show as usual. My top 4 are: 1. Fierceness 2. Sierra Leone 3. Catching Freedom 4. Stronghold

[@vincentflauto7650]

I agree on your top three but I’m gonna throw in just a touch because I think he is moving forward and has a lot of room for improvement

[@jenniferbeyer6412]

I can't wait. Wish i could be there with a horse in it. Been dreaming of that since 1973, as the owner trainer. There is still time.

[@derbyologist]

Yes that would be something.

[@rwood87]

What would be nice ur horse is in the Derby and the announcer says and the stretch they come, and ur horse right there.

[@randyswanson6912]

You a trainer?

[@rodolfoaguilera524]

@@derbyologist cuando es la carrera del Kentucky Derby donde corren los mejores jokey de Venezuela

[@billw7092]

Great video as usual! Thanks! My top 4 contenders are Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Track Phantom and Stronghold.

[@Riva_Ridge]

As of right now, my top 5 are: 1. Sierra Leone 2. Fierceness 3. Catching Freedom 4. Forever Young 5. Stronghold I have a few that I want to watch and I want to see what post everyone draws. but honestly, I am just excited to see this race!

[@larrywheeler-gu6tj]

My top 4... Fierceness, Domestic Product, Forever Young and Honor Marie .

[@ELIOSANFELIU]

Your analysis is so cool¡¡Thank you¡¡

[@bobpeterson8240]

I think your right on target .I'm looking for a price stronghold track phantom catching freedom

[@66fastbackguy]

Fierceness absolutely ran a great time in the Florida derby. .I think his time for Florida derby was 1:48 and 2/5 or close to it. . another 8th a mile added for the KY Derby could put fierceness winning at 2:00 minutes .if he doesn't run a bad race.. My Top 4 Fierceness Dornach Sierra Leone Strong hold

[@markjoanou4177]

Fierceness is going to be something special. I don't know about the rest. 😮

[@anthonyrazza1344]

Not in any order, but, will use in tri keys, and super part wheels. Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Just Steel, Track Phantom, Resilience, and, Forever Young. Forever has been the most relaxed entrant from Japan I've seen at Churchill Downs! Got to include "The Coach"

[@scorpionl6335]

this is going to be Japanese year, forever young will be the first Japanese winner of the KD. Deep impact breed to run all day and forever young is a true talent.

[@rick-ug3rd]

sierra leone and forever young are very close relatives. 1st cousins. the mothers of these two horses are 3/4ths sisters.

[@lincolndipnarinesingh3035]

I think Track Phantom is a developmenting 3 year old, I saw him breeze this week, blood clath lights out with this horse, he put on so much weight, monster look, plus Blinkers added watch meh 1 2 3 Pan in church, from NYC

[@ohioscott]

Have you ever done an analysis of say the last 20 Derby’s and showed how many were won by each of the 4 running styles? Not only that but how many winners were forced to change their usual running style because the race dictated it?

[@derbyologist]

That could be a good study. I will see what I can find for Past Performances and previous year's race shapes.

[@rustyshackleford5529]

Are you concerned at all about the crowd and Sierra Leone after his hesitancy to load in the Blue Grass? Love your videos!!! Thanks for all that you do

[@Mar.T.365]

Chad Brown said he wasn't overly worried about it. This horse is professional enough to overcome it. I think he will run his race!

[@jenniferbeyer6412]

@@Mar.T.365 ear plugs would help. I would use them if my horse was reactive to the noise. It will be 100 percent worse in the Kentucky Derby. Entering the stretch off the final turn called hitting the wall can put a horse off his/her stride.

[@derbyologist]

A l ittle concern, but that was a good sized Keeneland crowd, good experience to get him used to that. They will probably school next Wednesday or Thursday.

[@randyswanson6912]

Why,? He won

[@NancyLittrell-sw6tk]

Track Phantom across the board!

[@Dec4AllTimeAlways]

Top 5 Betting Choices Since 2017 2017 4.70 Always Dreaming (1st) 4.80 Irish War Cry (10th) 6.80 Classic Empire (4th) 6.90 McCracken (8th) 10.00 Gunnevera (7th) 2018 2.90 Justify (1st) 6.70 My Boy Jack (5th) 6.80 Mendelssohn (20th) 7.00 Audible (3rd) 8.90 Bolt d’Oro (12th) 2019 4.00 Improbable (5th, moved up to 4th) 4.50 Maximum Security (1st, DQ to 17th) 5.80 Tacitus (4th, moved up to 3rd) 6.80 Game Winner (6th, moved up to 5th) 11.60 Roadster (16th, moved up to 15th) Skip 2020 2021 (before Medina’s DQ a year later) 2.90 Essential Quality (4th) 4.70 Rock Your World (17th) 5.60 Hot Rod Charlie (3rd) 9.90 Known Agenda (9th) 10.70 Highly Motivated (10th) 2022 4.10 Epicenter (2nd) 5.80 Taiba (12th) 6.10 Zandon (3rd) 7.10 Messier (15th) 10.10 Mo Donegal (5th) 2023 4.06 Angel of Empire (3rd) 4.53 Tapit Trice (7th) 7.80 Derma Sotogake (6th) 9.87 Two Phil’s (2nd) 11.72 Kingbarns (14th) Ok, so 2017 and 2018 were chalky. The betting favorite won the race. We had the favorite win the Derby starting with Orb in 2013 and ending with Justify in 2018. That’s 6 straight favorites winning but we haven’t had a favorite win it since Justify. I remember My Boy Jack from 2018. His morning line was at 20-1. He got bet down as 2nd choice being the wiseguy horse. He didn’t exactly embarrass himself. Who will be the wiseguy horse this year? My top 3 in 2018 were Justify, Mendelssohn, and Audible. Justify and Audible showed up. Mendelssohn ran dead last next to Magnum Moon (a Pletcher horse) who was undefeated prior to that race. Hence, why I’m not betting on Forever Young. The results from 2019 and 2022 still stings. I’m not so mad losing last year with Mage. I simply overlooked him like I did for Medina Spirit. Angel of Empire was a lot of KZbinrs’ Derby horse last year. He was in my top 4-5 but he ran too late. Too far back. Mage wasn’t dead last early, made an earlier move, and that’s why he won. The last two years gave us flukey winners. Rich Strike and Mage never won a race after the Derby. They have two career wins, one was their maiden and the other was the Derby. We haven’t had a HOF quality 3YO run in the Derby since Justify (who enters it this year) and prior to that was Gun Runner. If I played heavy on a show wager and only picked one horse, I would’ve lost every Derby (sans 2020) dating back to 2019. I had Mandaloun but I think he was only 5th or 6th in my Derby rankings. He wasn’t my top choice. 2019 Maximum Security 2021 Known Agenda 2022 Messier/Taiba 2023 Verifying/Reincarnate None of my top 2 picks since 2021 hit the board. Doesn’t give me confidence putting a show bet on Sierra Leone or Fierceness. I’ve been reading some comments and a lot of people think Fierceness is a paper tiger. I believe so too but he could prove us all wrong. Never won two races in a row. Didn’t beat much in Florida. Hades did not flatter him in the Lexington. Trained by a guy who usually drops the ball on Derby Day. He’s named Fierceness but he doesn’t fight with any fierceness. Then again, there are some red flags with Sierra Leone as well. Is it Zandon/Angel of Empire all over again? Too far back and only finishes 3rd at best? His final 3/8th in the BG at 38.02 is still behind a handful of horses. No Blue Grass winner won the roses since Strike the Gold. Look at some of the recent BG winners 2018: Good Magic (2nd) 2021: Essential Quality (initially 4th) 2022: Zandon (3rd) 2023: Tapit Trice (7th) The safest bet is a show bet on Sierra Leone and hope he duplicates Zandon and Angel of Empire by finishing 3rd. But looking at my top picks from the last 4 Derbies I’ve gambled on, that’s not all that safe either. Even if let’s say I had Mage last year, he wouldn’t rank in my top 5. I would’ve never picked him to show. If you subtract all the DQs and 2020 is excluded, the betting favorite went 5th, 4th, 2nd, and 3rd. My Top 4 Sierra Leone Fierceness Stronghold Resilience Still undecided how I’m going to wager it because I feel I need to throw out Fierceness and take a flyer on Just Steel and Endlessly.

[@derbyologist]

I think we have some good horses at the top end this year. Every year plays a little differently. Mage and Rich Strike were more "Flukey" winners.

[@elaineacosta262]

I still am in Fearcness corner and I feel very strong about my decision Not to change my mind about it.Everything overall guy says Don’t change your mind! I also feel very strong about Encino and Stronghold and Just A Touch,Sierra Leone of course is a very strong contender in the equation but I am not going to change my decision.Elaine Acosta

[@derbyologist]

Boom, What if you change your mind next week?

[@randyswanson6912]

Cool

[@vincentflauto7650]

If you like fierceness pound him because this is going to be the best price you will ever get on him, especially if he wins. I think if he gets a clean trip, they’re all running for second.

[@ThunderGulch2828]

Great video - too bad Muth is not in this race but it's still going to be incredible - would love to see D Wayne get one more - Just Steel is a monster! Fierceness is the real deal and Sierra Leon is a freight train in the stretch

[@mikeparadise5024]

Thank you craig $60 dollar double always play it oaks derby xoxo love the show

[@joek7742]

This derby in my opinion is represented with a good bunch of horses and possibly a few future stars! So my top choice has to be Sierra Leone followed by Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. Unfortunately Fireceness won't be on my tickets and that's a tough one. It's just that I followed Sierra Leone since the Remsen stakes and became a big fan of this horse. No matter the post, weather or voices I'm not backing off now. Good luck to all and may the horse be with you!

[@eh1911]

May the horse be with you. That’s witty it is May 4

[@DerbyBandit]

1. Sierra 2. Domestic Product 3. Just Steel 4. Fierceness

[@derbyologist]

Boom - Irad

[@roninslv]

I'm beginning to like Catching Freedom.

[@johnkonley1421]

Fierceness after that Florida Derby Romp,Just a Touch,Honor Marie,is in great form, Stronghold.

[@blairkerr7911]

1.Fierceness 2.Sierra Leonne 3.Catching Freedom 4.Honor Marie.😮

[@kennethnero2011]

Resilience is my pick to upset the Derby 🐎 - Fierceness because he’s the best horse coming into the race - Catching Freedom is the horse to beat imo - Sierra Leone is the best closer and certainly the most consistent

[@frankfaniel1009]

My top four contenders Fierceness Sierra Leone Catching Freedom Stronghold

[@ianchefking5416]

Fierceness By Over 5Lengths - He’s The Next Flightline…Any Speed Figures That Rates Sierra Leone Faster I’d Dismiss. Mystic Dan Is Fast Dry Or Wet Surface Just Steel Now Hitting His Best Stride Dornoch - He’s Yet To Run Back To His Md. Effort

[@vincentflauto7650]

Everyone keeps saying that this is going to be a fast pace with a lot of speed. I don’t really see much speed signed on and if track Phantom takes back who’s gonna run with fierceness will run away with this race if he gets an easy lead.

[@SavagePoker81]

Morning Craig.. who’s you’re longshot?

[@michaelm7811]

Honor Marie will be my key horse in ex and tri’s.

[@derbyologist]

Good Luck on the Derby and Oaks

[@jamesmyers5962]

Honor Marie

[@Equalizer241]

My top 4 Mystic Dan Fierceness Strong Hold West Saratoga

[@Glenn-dp8vn]

Forever Young/Honor Marie/Sierra Leone/Fierceness-- $1superfecta box--go home a winner. Only costs $24--

[@DerbyBandit]

We need to do a stream. Late pick 4-5 😎

[@robertferrara4529]

my four are 1234 good luck

[@timwalsh8973]

catching freedom,mystic Dan, fierceness , track phatom, just steele..Sierra Leon toss.no pace at all

[@AgileGuy]

Big chance of rain on Sat. If so, don't like Fierceness. Not a good mudder at all. Poor race in Champagne after a bump and gave up.

[@jonpaley3766]

If Endlessly’s owners decide to roll the dice he will be on ALL my tickets! Jeff Ruby super impressive. Couldn’t care less he’s never raced on dirt. Animal Kingdom didn’t either and look how that turned out

[@chadv716]

Stronghold will be the best value ever in the derby. He prob be north of 15/1

[@henrydembski1032]

What? No Honor Marie?

[@davenielsen3621]

Just Steel will run in the super

[@bobpeterson8240]

But Encino gets to run I like his chances

[@charlesbadrock]

FLA Derby winner and Bluegrass winner will go off co chalks I'll be looking to beat both of them for the win slot although I do have the Bluegrass winner SL rated higher then the Fla Derby winner the Fla Derby winner will be a toss for me SL is dangerous he's a legit threat but he's not the only powerfulcloser in the field CF JAT SL my top 3 and CF my Win Horse

[@johnmoeller2480]

Catching Freedom, Just a Touch, Sierra Leone, Society Man. In that order. LOL

[@oscarrivera474]

How. U don’t have honor mary in that list. My top 5 leon. Just touch. Mistivk dan honor mary

[@BryantBrothers-gm1qx]

Sometimes less is more,,with the derby and especially the BC...there is just to much info to digest,your brain starts scrambling,you start factoring various opinions,you start considering long shots that really can't win... I'm keeping it simple this year...only about four can win this race Fierceness Sierra Leone Stronghold Resilience IMO with SL being the pick

[@derbyologist]

I think narrowing it down, is the way to go, once you start playing 8-9 horses, then the tickets get pretty thin.