Kentucky Derby Update 2024 Forever Young Notes

[@Deznutz6969]

heres a nugget, Forever Young ran the fastest final 400m ever in the UAE derby and thats after running 4 and 5 wide and running on the wrong lead. This is the best horse Japan has ever sent and Im a big Derma and Thunder Snow fan. love his style and hes all heart.

[@Dec4AllTimeAlways]

*My* *Derby* *Dozen* 1. Sierra Leone 2. Fierceness 3. Dornoch 4. Just Steel 5. Catching Freedom 6. Honor Marie 7. Resilience 8. Forever Young 9. Stronghold 10. Endlessly 11. Just A Touch 12. Encino I will be betting 12 horses from the possible 20 but I’ll be more focused on my top 4 when I go to my local OTB. *Sierra* *Leone* He’s only lost once in his career and it was by a nose to Dornoch in the Remsen. He defeated Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Resilience who all flattered that Risen Star win when CF and HM went 1-2 in the Louisiana Derby and Resilience won the Wood. If Sierra Leone gets a clean trip similar to a Rich Strike and Mage from the past two Derbies while Fierceness gets caught in a brutal first half at :46 or less, then Sierra Leone is catching them all. He’s the best closer in this crop especially against the horses he soundly defeated in the Risen Star. KY Derby is probably Sierra’s best shot at winning a Triple Crown race thanks to the fast pace early on. Preakness usually favors speed and Belmont favors tactical speed and freshness. If Sierra wins the Derby but loses the Preakness, he probably won’t even be in the Belmont. He’ll be saved up for the Travers which also benefits closers like him. I watched some Florida and Arkansas preps last night, and it seems Track Phantom is one of those Songandaprayer and Spanish Chestnut types who can set a fast enough pace to set it up for Sierra Leone. I think the 2YO champ, Fierceness, is the FASTEST horse while Sierra Leone is the most CONSISTENT. SL was one nose away at being undefeated at 4-0. Must use in all tickets. He’s a top 3 candidate whether he wins or not. *Fierceness* The 2YO champ has shown to be the fastest horse in this crop so far with a 105 Beyer in the BC Juvie and a 110 in the Florida Derby. If he doesn’t bounce like Bellamy Road, he wins this race going away. Maybe by 3-5 lengths with Sierra Leone fast closing for 2nd. But it may not be that simple with 20 horses in a race. Since 2004, six horses who ran a 110 Beyer in their final prep would later fail to hit the board in the Derby: Lion Heart, The Cliff’s Edge, Read the Footnotes, Bellamy Road, Sinister Minister, and Materiality. Half of them ran in 2004. But the one good thing is Fierceness ran a 105 BSF last year. So he’s shown it’s no fluke or he’s some cheap speed like Sinister Minister was. The knocks on Fierceness is he might get a lively pace. Horses like Track Phantom, Just A Touch, and Encino like to be on or near the lead. Dornoch, Just Steel, and Forever Young might also keep it quicker near the front. I thought the Derby pace would be slow last year but it wasn’t. Went under :46 and I already knew Verifying and Reincarnate were cooked. Then add the knock that Fierceness has never won two races in a row. I rewatched the Champagne and Holy Bull and he faded badly in both and he was 1-5 in both. He lost a lot of money for bettors those two times he lost. Has never shown grit in those losses. He simply faded. His inconsistency makes him unreliable but you still can’t throw him out because he’s the champ and the fastest of this crop. Fierceness is really a bad bet who offers terrible value. Another Pletcher flop in the making. But I respect his class so much, that I can’t simply throw him out. If he runs his race, he wins this by a few lengths. He defeated Muth in Cali who would later flatter him by winning the Arkansas Derby. Muth would probably be the 3rd betting choice if his trainer wasn’t suspended. Fierceness is very sink or swim and I think his best shot at winning TC race isn’t the Derby but the Preakness since City of Light and Quality Road never won beyond 9F. And the Preakness is the TC race I think Sierra Leone will most likely lose in like Mage did last year. Pace makes the race and a fast pace in the Derby can help closers while a speed favoring track like Pimlico favors speedy horses. I believe by post time, Fierceness will be the favorite but slightly over Sierra Leone. A lot of handicappers will realize he’s the class of this crop thanks to the 105 and 110 BSFs that they will drop big money on him late but then watch him lose as the chalk like he did in the Champagne and Holy Bull. Then he may avenge Sierra Leone in the Preakness. Fierceness could be better played against if you think the pace will be brutal but it would not shock me either way if he wins by daylight or runs off the board. *Dornoch* I was ready to toss Dornoch because we rarely see a Derby winner fail to hit the board in their last prep and he did that running 4th in the Blue Grass. Sierra Leone got his sweet revenge on him. But Dornoch remains the only horse who defeated Sierra Leone. The 2023 Remsen looked like the 1966 Chicken Flamingo won by Buckpasser. But Buckpasser was just lazy. How Dornoch won it was from pure determination. The thing is, he never crossed paths with Fierceness. Dornoch won the Fountain of Youth but wasn’t in the Holy Bull or FL Derby. But he has crossed paths with Sierra Leone twice drawing with him at 1-1. Think last year when Mage kept losing to Forte in Florida. Then Forte gets scratched in Kentucky and Mage ends up winning. Dornoch is the full brother to Mage but they have opposite running styles. It would be cool if we see two full brothers win B2B Derbies. Good Magic and Puca should be proud parents. The Super Magic Bros.! Curlin on top and Big Brown on the bottom. Dornoch is bred to run at 10F. *Just* *Steel* 1988: Winning Colors 1995: Thunder Gulch 1996: Grindstone 1999: Charismatic D. Wayne Lukas, baby, Yeah, I know he hasn’t won a Derby in this century. A new generation doesn’t even know who the hell he is anymore. It’s been 25 years since Charismatic. But Muth isn’t in the race and Just Steel just happened to finish 2nd behind him in Arkansas with a 96 BSF which is higher than Stronghold’s SA Derby (89) and Encino’s Lexington (94). And the final eighth closing time in Arkansas was very fast at 12 and change. Just Steel might be the Justify son to watch over Just A Touch. He seems to be improving in every race. He’s big similar to his dad. He wore blinkers similar to Thunder Gulch. Just Steel is just a flyer. Willing to throw $5 on him at 25-1. Be a great story if D. Wayne Lukas won another Derby at 88, his first since the “1900s”…. I will have money every horse in my Derby Dozen but my top 4 will be my main focus on Star Wars Day. My top 4 for May 4.

[@derbyologist]

Some good notes on the Kentucky Derby 2024. The field is starting to firm up. D Wayne off the Plane! Derby Dozen looks good, let's keep them all in the gate.

[@lenordbrazil9580]

Nobody talks about dornock that race where he had the lead lost the lead and then refused to quit a d beat Sierra leone which is a super horse good luck

[@vernonfrance2974]

The knock on Dornock is that in the Blue Grass he finished fourth and did not knock on the door.

[@vernonfrance2974]

First to comment! Forever Young has a good chance based on fitness. He's gotten here early. That should help. It's true that he's run against four year olds and at long distances. He looks rather heavy and powerful compared to Fierceness. Thanks for pointing out that he won at a minor track called Kawasaki. Thanks for letting us know that his speed rating was not that great.

[@esmondrose5294]

He looks like a horse with tons of stamina and likes roughness ,which should help him well in this field at the 10 furlong distance of Churchill Down.If Forever Young Ragozin numbers is a pointer ,then we got a serious runner from Japan.Must be fully matured to have race older horses in the same class as him.Could be any kind or the real deal .

[@anthonyrazza1344]

I'm waiting till one comes here to run in prep races for Derby, till then, I can not honestly consider one. I may lose my entire wager. So be it. Come here and run, would love to see them!!

[@derbyologist]

Lots to consider with Forever Young, he looks like he carries some weight and seems to have shipped over well from Dubai.

[@esmondrose5294]

My main four horses to seriously considered for all the money and been stoutly bred for 10 furlong distance with pace are Just Steel ,Mystik Dan.,Just A touch,Stronghold. The biggest question will be on Fierceness and Forever Young.Mystik Dan could win easily if Just Steel bounce from his last race.However Just Steel has been fined tuned to be now tougher by D.Wayne lucas and Stronghold (January born) runs just like Ghostzapper who dance every step of the way at the distance.Just A Touch is showing the quality of a stardom horse if the seasoning and prep showing how much hidden speed he got with class.Justify was a serious runner with big lungs and triple crowning glory.Best of luck to the smart money.

[@henrydembski1032]

I bet him early in futures at 56-1 so happy with that. For derby if he’s under 10-1 I’m passing. Has to buck quite a trend. Not sure what he really beat abroad but has done no wrong. At some point a Japanese horse will win Derby, he’s best candidate. Impeccable pedigree

[@derbyologist]

I'm ok with him, I don't think he is as good as Derma Sotogake. The number look good on Thorograph, but last year they had Derma Sotogake fast as well. I think there is Speed Figure inflation on some of those Dubai Races.

[@henrydembski1032]

@@derbyologist with many horses like this it seems you key him or throw him out but I agree with possibly inflated numbers. I do however love the consistent speed figure progression and it’s hard to go past that pedigree which is very US dirt friendly

[@Deznutz6969]

​@@derbyologistDerma had an easy lead sitting on the rail. I loved Derma but he was comprimised when his jockey was scared to go to the lead because the year before he had a pace melt down with Crown Pride. Forever Youngs style fits and his won his last 2 races on the wrong lead . He s very impressive . I have him #1 on my list..I also believe when Dornoch , Fierceness and 2 other front runners hook up this will only ensure stalkers and closers have a good pace to close into. This fields very close.

[@timwalsh8973]

Thx. for info. on this horse. still have no jockey or trainer percentages on races run. very important.

[@lenordbrazil9580]

Is forever young a large horse you called him baby godzilla but didnt follow it up with why😮

[@johnmoeller2480]

Do you know what Encino's numbers for the Lexington

[@derbyologist]

Beyer of 94 waiting for Brisnet number.

[@johnmoeller2480]

@@derbyologist Thank you

[@Jo2lentino1981]

I’ll for your longshot again Craig.. thanks!

[@derbyologist]

Will be doing the longshot video as we get closer and the field firms up.

[@omarguerra2646]

Thanks Craig for this excellent Update

[@roninslv]

Just saw Fierceness, He's looking GREAT.

[@anthonyrazza1344]

He need to break cleanly or he's in trouble! I'm not so sure he will! Needs the lead 💯

[@roninslv]

@@anthonyrazza1344 He did'nt take rhe lead in the BC Juvenile until the quarter pole.

[@mikestone7185]

​@@roninslv I think he trying to say is , in a 20 horse field if Fierceness doesnt break good . He is not the type of horse that cant maneuver in and out and cut throw and find holes with 10-14 horses bunched up against him with dirt pinch in the face . He most def need a clean break up front or he done

[@vernonfrance2974]

@@roninslv He did not have a target on his back back then as he was not a top selection in the Juvenile. He's no lock 'cause now every jock will take a swipe and give him a sock. He's anything but fierce when they give him a sock, a bump or a thump. He's like a new kid on the block. If he doesn't get ahead of the pack he's liable to crack and that's a fack Jack.

[@elaineacosta262]

Good morning guys

[@darranthompson6464]

I’ll take my chances with others can’t trust UAE Derby as a prep race

[@derbyologist]

Yes need to see more from that prep race, I do think Forever Young coming over early is a benefit.

[@charlesconti2028]

Baby Godzilla is not in my Super box but he may be when all of my peeps pick their horses 🐎 we usually box together !! I mean he was all out to beat BOOK EM Danal / WHO ?? 😂 But is bred for distance n has had good preps n all races a distance !! But with Japanese jock up / who knows the speed he will show n 20 horses 🐎 n maybe MUD / SLOP track ?? Not any Japanese horses have hit the board in Derby so far so batting 0000……

[@thetraveller485]

Im waiting on your analysis on track phantom ❤

[@derbyologist]

Coming Soon.

[@innopva9973]

fonner park doees not have a crowd like that! wow that was insane number of people that minor track race.

[@derbyologist]

On Gus Bosselman Day Fonner gets a good crowd. But not like that.

[@jameschan9634]

At best, Forever Young will be the 5th betting favorite, odds that will get my $2. I will box with Catching Freedom. What has the lawsuit Muth's owners brought against CD determined?

[@derbyologist]

That lawsuit will be announced on Wednesday if he will be allowed to enter Kentucky Derby.

[@anthonyrazza1344]

​@derbyologist he will change the complexion of this race, I believe! That is some horse out of Nyquist!

[@rzz9594]

If forever young is 12- 1,, or less no thanks . Not betting him anyway.

[@charlesconti2028]

Just would like to remind all that FIERCENESS, the 🐎 Derby probably favorite off his 110 monster Florida Derby romp , does not like the MUD / SLOP !! Please look 👀 back @ his past performances n his 2nd race in the slop he got beat 2 miles !! Like Mendelssohn who probably got beat worse than anybody ever !! So he’s a throw out if it rains race day or especially a few hours before !! Just sayin !! 🤷🐎💰👍🙏

[@66fastbackguy]

I am skeptical of forever young...his races are impressive some what ...but his times aren't that good...let me see his CD wirkouts coming up..then judge him

[@johnkonley1421]

No chance a Japan horse wins

[@derbyologist]

Bold Prediction, Should be interesting to see what he does.