Leon Festinger: When Prophecy Fails

What happens when you predict the apocalypse... and nothing happens? Leon Festinger examined this phenomenon and it might even have implications for your personal life.
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[@lcstyle2029]

thanks for the video on this very important work by Festinger. I myself am guilty of "doubling-down" at times, and I know many others who simply can't admit they were wrong. It takes a lot of humility at your very core to realize you've maybe committed to something that in the end turned out to not be what you expect. It is said that it is easier to fool someone than it is to convince them that they've been fooled.

[@PersonalPower]

my pleasure! In does indeed take a lot of humility to make that realization!

[@richtertomatala]

In other words, it's easier to make up excuses than recognizing the mistake.

[@adams9315]

Such an important study and book, and still so relevant. Loved the video! This isn’t talked about nearly enough. We here in the U.S. have seen these effects with the cult surrounding Donald Trump and the dissonance that occurred following his leaving office.

[@PKandME]

Nice!

[@sierrannomad]

And on a slight tangent from your argument and conclusion. I am religious, I am Jewish, Israeli, and I come from a Abrahamicly culturally and religiously mixed family. I would say the "object" of belief is not tangible. Belief deals with abstraction, and can be related to in reconciliatory ways. I can say I believe in traditional Jewish Orthodox teachings but what I believe in may not be exactly the same internally of what someone else believes though we may externally express the same belief.

[@PersonalPower]

Yeah there is a distinction the personal dimension of believing and a belief system. When talking about believing I usually talk about believing in shared norms and stuff like that and less about what belief is and means for a specific individual. Should probabaly make that clearer in future videos

[@unperson4806]

Leon Festinger hat das menschliche Wesen im Kern erkannt, denke ich. Seine Theorie der kognitiven Dissonanz ist in meinen Augen sozusagen die "42" des menschlichen Geistes. Ergänzend würde ich hier gerne auch noch Joost Abraham Maurits Meerloo ins Spiel bringen.

[@sierrannomad]

But I would add that it is not about the "prophecy", but rather about the cult itself - it is the community, and belonging. The commitment is not necessarily to the belief, but having others to believe with. Those cult members can perhaps relate with each other on a level they might not be able to with persons who are not part of the cult. And I would even go further to say the prophecy never actually ever comes "true" for in the end we live in a world of interpretation.

[@PersonalPower]

Yeah its not about the prophecy but the book is called "when prophecy fails". The social aspect is indeed a crucial part but it is also the commitment to the actions that one has already taken.

[@sierrannomad]

@@PersonalPower I need to get a copy. 🙂👌🏾

[@Phil72099]

Good thoughts, I have been aware of the research of Festinger et al and believe in the theory of cognitive dissonance.

[@PeleSahota]

There are biblical historians who are applying dissonance theory to explain the rise of X'tianity - remember it arose from a set of failed Jewish apocalyptic prophecies which then either had to be reworked or thrown away. That reworking created X'tianity.

[@descartes6797]

Note that Christianity, too, started as an apocalyptic cult. What is the resurrection story but a desperate attempt to reinterpret the reality of an ignominious defeat, the crucifixion of Jesus, whom they believed to be the Messiah, into a great triumph?

[@tonglu3699]

I observed the QAnon community on Biden’s Inauguration Day. It was textbook.