Why economic collapse will force Putin to end the war in Ukraine in 2025 | Anders Aslund

"Russia is no longer a superpower. It is a very limited power."
The true state of Russia's economic situation gives Putin less than a year to end his invasion of Ukraine, Anders Aslund, economist and former advisor to the Kremlin tells Kate Gerbeau on Frontline
Join this channel to get access to perks -
/ @listentotimesradio
📻 Listen to Times Radio - www.thetimes.c...
🗞 Subscribe to The Times www.thetimes.c...
📲 Get the free Times Radio app www.thetimes.c...

[@govinda102000]

If the Putin government is overthrown, then Ukraine should get most of the credit for they made the ultimate sacrifice over and over again.

[@michaelhealy9191]

One of the best interviews on the war

[@ananamu2248]

ZELENSKI is so amazing ....I hope all the wonderful things he has done is remembered . Great interview

[@carlberg7503]

Listening to Aslund is enlightening. Thanks!

[@Serbinator_Dominator]

He is a total fool. Every prediction he made on Twitter for last 3 years has been wrong and absolute nonsense

[@SavageJunky]

I trust Putin when he say the sanctions help Russia! So to show him our good faith, we should double the sanctions!!

[@Norbert2470]

On the other hand he wants us to losen the sanctions.

[@deborahborlase7100]

Loving the sarcasm here. Yes, sanctions are helping Russia soooo much that I agree, we should double them. 😂

[@wlhjr77]

Well said

[@elainekarlsson8384]

Wouldn't that be the best possible argument to serve the MAGA crowd! Imagine if Trump wins the election, and his supporters demand that he double the sanctions! That's the Deluxe version of being between a rock and a hard place!😂😂😂

[@SavageJunky]

@@elainekarlsson8384 They are so... "Special"... That they could really do it 🤣

[@benjohnson1670]

Great interview. Agree: remove the restraints; Crimea must be Ukraine.

[@shubashuba9209]

Europe can't just rely on sanctions. They need to help Ukraine target and reach critical infrastructure like cargo shipping and factories. Make it so that Russia has nothing to export.

[@Andreas-gh6is]

For one thing, Europe just doesn't have enough of such weaponry, most of what the Ukrainians could have used and we really don't need has already been sent. For another, you underestimate the scale of even the abysmally dysfunct Russian economy. They probably have thousands of cargo ships and factories. No way no how you can destroy even a significant portion of this stuff with cruise missiles. Only way would be big and cheap bombs dropped from planes and that ain't happening for all sorts of reasons.

[@timthetiny7538]

40% of global potash fertilizer comes from the area. If you were actually successful in sanctioning Russian gas and fertilizer exports, hundreds of millions of people would starve to death globally lol

[@earllemongrab7960]

Great guest, great interview! Thanks Kate!

[@theartguy6776]

We as Americans should be ashamed that we are not supporting Ukraine as much as we should.

[@icu17siberia]

"We" are not, as the europeans don't seem overly concerned to act.

[@theartguy6776]

@@icu17siberia That not true as the Europeans have sent Ukraine more money than "US". That is a fact and yes "We" should be ashamed for not sending more.

[@theartguy6776]

@@icu17siberia America is no longer the Arsenal of democracy. We are turning into MAGA/Russian stooges.

[@justayoutuber1906]

The GOP has become Putin's buddy

[@Kyle-sr6jm]

Nope. We shouldn't be ashamed about our support. We should be ashamed that we let this get started.

[@jcdisci]

People forget. Economics brought down the Soviet Union, not military might.

[@nominimo4]

nah, it was politics.

[@GafferBob]

Thank you Kate and Anders. Excellent interview

[@edwardtobin169]

My fav economist,, we all play our small roles in the wheel of life . Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@marisabenson1222]

Ukraine will win in the end as ruzzia collapses. It played its hand or putin did and it lost. I said it from the start even if it wins ruzzia will lose. Shame what putin did to his people and his country.

[@randstahl4869]

This is an admirable demonstration how any journalist by asking knowlegdeable questions can interview an expert of a complex subject about a specific topical issue.

[@ToriKamal]

This is a really fascinating interview and this man really seems knowledgeable!

[@brizzle3903]

Yeah because the sanctions worked so well the first time The definition of insanity read it and know that you fall into that category of being bat 💩insane Morons

[@ahartify]

A very enlightening interview. Thank you!

[@coachking5208]

😂

[@mikelanglow-bi2sv]

Mr Aslund was a privilege to listen in a fascinating interview ❤😊

[@nigel8892]

Thank you! Great interview.

[@dpelpal]

I am Russian I live Samara city and economic in Russia much worse than many people know😢

[@dpelpal]

@boita1989 U are correct, his "Kyiv in three days" not work out well😢

[@geoffgill5334]

Denisova I am hearing the same thing from 4 other economists. Konstantin " Inside Russia, " Joe Blogs, Mark at Econ Lessons, and this gentleman

[@dpelpal]

@@geoffgill5334 Yes, it will be seen soon! It will be like 1990s times, all overs again

[@geoffgill5334]

​@dpelpal hate to say it but sooner is better..Going to happen might as well be sooner

[@dpelpal]

@@geoffgill5334 I am prepare to leave, many in Russia are to leaving but men cannot leave!

[@JohannesSebastian]

What a great guy

[@spamcan9208]

He's the second person I've heard say Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war and to isolate it. The first was General Hodges.

[@Kodakcompactdisc]

Hodgy was/is on the ball.

[@abuzozo2672]

Outstanding! A rare example of deep insight and analysis based on real data, compared to most of the fluff in media reporting on Ukraine.

[@truthbsaid1600]

Russia's budget for 2025 is based on a price of oil at 70 US dollars per barrel of oil. Since oil exports represent 40% of the budget revenue, just a small dip in the estimated price per barrel will throw the budget into chaos.

[@garyddlewis3067]

I urge everyone to read it. It destroys the Russian nonsense about how well the Russian economy is doing.

[@s0ycapitan]

The World bank just said Russia is doing great 3.6% growth in 2023. Sweden not so much -0.2%. I wonder if Sweden have been listening too much to people like Anders.

[@garyddlewis3067]

@@s0ycapitan That shows no understanding of what is happening. All of the growth is the Russian government purchasing weapons for the 3 day SMO in Ukraine. Two problems: (1) You cannot eat a tank or drink a rifle; (2) Only lasts until you run out of money. The liquid part of the National Wealth Fund runs out of money end of 2025. End of 2025 Russia is in deep trouble.

[@Talinthis]

@@s0ycapitan The russian government is heavily involved, banning basically all trading that isn't in rubles. They are dictating what the ruble is worth in a closed economy, doesn't mean it is going good. Their largest industry giants have been operating significantly in the red for the first time this century.

[@totallyinsane6431]

​​@@s0ycapitan Lavrov "India wants to eat a piece of the cake and have it" russia would not accept the rupee. Now the rupee is 1.5x more than the ruble.

[@totallyinsane6431]

Also announced in russia for next year. Gas prices to rise over another 10% and Electrical goods etc to rise over another 11%.

[@我听他们讲是二十七篇]

The problem is US is possibly electing Putin's best friend as the next president

[@oxydator]

I suggest to everyone who thinks Trump is the good choice, listen to his recent rally speech in Colorado. Evil mad clown show full of rambling, whining, threatening - With some notable slip ups too, for example him telling the crowd how good the Trump organization will be at running the country.

[@devonglide1830]

Not to mention Xi’s and the Chinese people’s support and funding of Russia’s war machine.

[@juliechristianson8009]

This man speaks with great authority. Loved this interview. Thank you Kate snd Times Radio.

[@nicholaspenrake]

Very sharp questions throughout this interview. Not many interviewers can reach this level of acuity.

[@jonnieyuma8061]

One might also include the extreme housing affordability crisis in Russia, with mortgage rates at 20%!!!

[@williamlloyd3769]

Guess Putin shouldn’t have skipped that war checklist item to tell Russian Central Bank to repatriate foreign exchange from overseas banks before invasion commenced.

[@TheDogsboddy]

Very clever fellow.Thank you !

[@Kodakcompactdisc]

A vote for donald is a vote for putler.

[@brizzle3903]

@@Kodakcompactdisc and yet he attacked Ukraine when Biden was in office 3 days AFTER Cackles left Zelensky in Poland Care to explain why this didn’t happen under Trump? Don’t worry sweetie I will wait and watch you struggle to answer that one

[@Norbert2470]

The inflation rate in Russia is currently at 9%. The interest rate for loans in Russia is at 19%. Russia is currently borrowing money at 16.16% (bonds 2039). Even a credit card offers better conditions. The Russians have currently a severe labor shortage. To attract men signing up as a basic soldier for one year the russian state offers up to $ 60.000. The average anual salary in Russia is about $ 14.000 per year. Adjusted for purchasing power, that would be like the US military paying young soldiers $193,000 in their first year. They will have to offer more and more over time. Russian spending on internal security and defense has increased by 30-40% annually since the beginning of the war. It now accounts for 35% of total Russian government spending. When the warehouses for old Soviet equipment are empty in about two years, this figure could rise. Military spending is part of GDP but it is spending on entirely unproductive assets. Military goods need to be stored and repaired and will finally be destroyed. This kind of spending does not provide long term returns (like a school or a road). Russian weapons sales are going to zero. BUT: Until you run out of money you don´t have problems, you just had high costs.

[@mikejess04]

You should employ the IMF and world bank. You know more than them combined 🙃

[@SavageJunky]

​@@mikejess04Russian troll spotted 😂😂

[@Jimmy-ye3wg]

The Russians can well outlast Ukraine in that sense, chinese, iranian and North Korean skilled labour is a huge bonus for military, civil and energy infrastructure. As was the case during the construction of infrastructure for the world Cup, and Winter Olympics in years gone by. Exports are still exceptionally strong to the expanding BRICS community and beyond also.

[@Norbert2470]

@@mikejess04 That´s public information (from russian statistics agency).

[@billy2807]

​@Jimmy-ye3wg joined four months ago, huh? Welcome to KZbin, totally-not-a-troll. No, russia cannot outlast Ukraine, provided the West continues to support Ukraine financially. None of the three "allies" you've suggested have offered the kind of help russia needs - and two of them can't, even if they wanted to. The rf is running out of money. And that's when Dobby's time is up. The economy of the rf is smaller than the economy of California.

[@geofo60]

He's backing up everything I have been able to glean from sources on the subject of Russia's economy. The Ruble has been dropping in value month on month since the beginning of 2024 and is now at 97.6 against the Dollar. It's literally not worth the paper it's printed on .

[@jocko4598]

The ultimate weapon......money.

[@weirdo1060]

Sun Tzu (author of The Art of War) even mentioned about how finances are necessary to start or maintain military operations.

[@evaluateanalysis7974]

I believe that one of the reasons that the Soviet Union collapsed was because they were bankrupted by trying to keep up in the arms race with the USA.

[@danielhansson1003]

Good interview Kate, Slavo Ukraine!

[@jeffbridges8681]

A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin.

[@jonnybalz]

Hardly

[@arildjohansen7847]

Super rapport 😊

[@amandadonaghey7540]

👍🇺🇦🇮🇪🇺🇦

[@Mac-el6rm]

Yes, @michaelhealy, that was one of the best interviews on the war I've watched. Excellent questions of a truly informed man whose job it is/has been to analyze those two countries in particular. Good job, TR!

[@Robert-i2d4u]

Luv ya Kate ❤

[@bertoldriesenteil1430]

I don't think that those 200,000 dead russians that he mentions were that "young". Many were middle aged former convicts and former soldiers.

[@kethughes8266]

Oh well that's all right then.

[@maneshipocrates2264]

Hopefullly the Russian central bank chief will put on that black dress.Great analysis.

[@EmmaJavas]

No world was praising Russian economy why is Russia crying now

[@JuanSanchez-tu3dc]

Zelensky = "Stay alive til 25. Get our kicks in 26"

[@stevenovetsky3274]

💙💛

[@joelmccoy9969]

At minute 4:10. Kate Chabot: "When the reality is so different to the actual truth..." Huh?

[@Ps119]

very interesting

[@georgemcaulay6009]

Just saw rwo jet powered drone prototypes with stealth and AI . They can react anywhere in russian 😂

[@ВладимирАнанченко-к7ф]

The main question is whether Ukraine can hold another year?

[@rickardbromma1514]

Hi

[@danielwalther5841]

Only 40 billion liquid money left? Dollar/Rubel 1 to 100 and more than 19% interest rate? Ordinary Russians still don't feel anything about this war? Only a lack of electricity could cause these people to have serious questions? Still questions?!

[@GeopoliticalMilitary_News]

Slava Ukraine

[@WilliamCarnell-k9g]

Building stuff to get blown up grows an economy how?

[@STHFGDBY]

Putin must never be allowed to walk away from his war crimes. No sanctions should ever be lifted till he's either dead or handed over for war crimes, and on top of that, democracy must be restored in Russia and a agreement reached that war reparations be paid to Ukraine. Also an agreement made that independent overseers be present to ensure future Elections be fair and legit...

[@Mathrox-uu1qh]

Maybe, maybe not. these kind of predictions were made a year ago, too. Everyone just forgets. No one knows what will happen. The single biggest lesson to learn from history is that events are unpredictable. Yogi Berra (I think) - "Prediction is hard, especially when it's about the future."

[@Bran9]

What are predictions 'about'😂

[@sambabisky4742]

He is describing what all parties some earlier than others (Russia 1917) but all come to having millions making nothing and needing everything. That proved a war economy, to be not sustainable.

[@memirandawong]

Did he say "bunk"??? haven't heard that term since 1976

[@elisabethnygaard8525]

People in Russia use their credit cards heavily, even for buying food. The small banks will collapse very soon.

[@Restrocket]

2-3% yearly? Seriously? Thats what will stop a war in your imagination?

[@eriksyring]

11: No, the sign-up bonus in Moscow is about $25K.

[@mcass777]

How much does Russia have in gold reserves?

[@rorymackay7712]

PUTRID has not opened his present yet, but this country n its people to reclaim government property after he has been dropped off 💀 I can NOT do flying carpets, but pulling the rug was FUN.

[@markupson6154]

How annoying are these adverts now. I think they have over done it

[@rickardbromma1514]

Yes i know about finn

[@jameshallahan4376]

Little confidence my posts won’t be censored

[@unifiedvision999]

A desperate old man with nukes, how could anything go wrong?

[@AGENDA_1938]

Can someone please hack the audio systems in Trump's plane and mansions and play right that there? As well the one of Scholz? Excellent questioning as well - by the way. Thank you!

[@RoyalBlue292]

Someone remind Old Man to take his medication 😂

[@dylanhood6089]

Anders puck!!!!!

[@Crimeajewel-me3me]

On my way to Kiev in July I met a Ukrainian soldier with 2 artificial legs in Warsaw.

[@petergeddesrensen6567]

Vladolf Putler will fail

[@jjjilani9634]

Not true

[@paulstewart4195]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺💪🏽

[@alc5792]

All this hard work and if trump gets in all will be lost he will undermine everything.

[@therealdeplorables5968]

Atlantic Council🤣

[@phildobson8705]

Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk is looking increasingly ill advised, and as its prospects dwindle, it becomes ever more urgent that an end is brought to this war, argues Chris Bambery

[@StPiter111]

Is your expert a mummy? 😂😂😂

[@rmdomainer9042]

Could very well be your mummy, infopirates. At least he can feed himself.

[@coachking5208]

😂😂😅

[@Lovepeacejustice]

This man talk some things correct but some things he talks makes no sense

[@peetky8645]

I thought Putin ran out of missiles and ammo 18 months ago

[@kethughes8266]

You thought wrong then.

[@hgv1883]

No you just run out of anything of substance to say 🤡

[@87tln]

Bahh still they have alot of money😢

[@marisabenson1222]

Nope

[@weirdo1060]

Russian money is similar to a line of credit and dwindling cash supplies. Russian banks skewed their exchange rate for ruble or U.S. dollar to keep more stable currency in system. Russian trade deal with Pakistan involved bartering potatoes for tangerines. Kremlin has short term money, but is digging itself into a financial hole for the long term.

[@bonefishboards]

A year ago, I remember... Why economic collapse will force Putin to end the war in Ukraine in 2024

[@icu17siberia]

and here we are with 19% inflation, 19% interest to Russian people, and half the country with no plumbing, selling out to Chinese masters, and becoming dependent on North Korea and Iran. Outstanding

[@weirdo1060]

If Russian economy is so great, why are there sky high interest rates and barter trade (e.g. Pakistan) instead of using ruble?

[@kethughes8266]

It is an inevitability.

[@paulpaisley5291]

How can you do that when you all buy even more Russian oil from India 😂😂😂😂😂.

[@graham7309]

😂😂😂nope!

[@patricklarsen8078]

IMF says their economy is doing good.

[@foilhat1138]

There aren't IMF detectives who investigate economies. Russia self reports their cooked numbers and the IMF takes them at face value.

[@rmdomainer9042]

Not really. IMF are just echoing Rosstat data that says the GDP is increasing. Funnily enough, IMF says the same about Ukraine.

[@peterallman8474]

Ah, Times Radio is forecasting the downfall of Russia yet again. Same old boring story. Every headline somehow similar and repeated ad nauseam. They should have fallen two years ago according to Times Radio and have been falling ever since. It's about time someone told the Russians, they don't seem to get it.

[@hgv1883]

Gazprom gets it 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🤡

[@patsy2851]

The "spinning" has started in earnest for when Ukraine is forced to the table when their paymasters put away their chequebook next month ;)

[@ChristyBermingham]

Are you putin making a wish 😂😂

[@Lsutiger300]

Putin literally made a pact with iran today...its all over msm😂😂😂they dont seem desperate...your reports are very biased

[@marisabenson1222]

Haha Iran. I do feel sorry for the Iranian people though who want nothing to do with ruzzia or their own government.

[@hairbrush3192]

Not biased, just that you don’t want to believe them, carry on with with ignoring the signs, they will collapse soon enough……

[@SavageJunky]

Cope harder comrad 😂

[@Jimmy-ye3wg]

​@@hairbrush3192 Ukraine will be long defeated before that. They are already in major major trouble.

[@GrooveTasticThang]

Making a pact with Iran is literally the definition of desperate

[@Nobodyteachme]

Fake news

[@russellspeed1693]

The nonsense here is simply off the scale. Times Radio is getting desperate, but why?

[@Kodakcompactdisc]

Just because you don’t like it doesn’t make it nonsense.

[@russellspeed1693]

@@Kodakcompactdisc that is so so cool )) keep up the good work !!

[@boink800]

Cringe man repeats the nonsense claim all the time since Cringe man can only present *cringe*

[@boink800]

The football team knew they lost when they saw the Cringe man supporter *cringe*

[@boink800]

Cringe man *cringe* was the reason that everyone left. As usual

[@brizzle3903]

Let’s see how you spin the BRICS summit this month ya know the organization that will eventually see Turkey a NATO member join the fold Ooof that’s gotta hurt the narrative 😂

[@marisabenson1222]

We will see. Turkiye has benefited in being part of the EU and has received some military equipment from the US. I doubt it will side with one over the other. Once trump loses in November we will see putin fall to his knees like the ruzzian economy.

[@AnimaChronix3]

Doesn't hurt anything actually. Turkey asked to join BRICS after years of being denied to join the EU. They also want to decomission their Russian S400 air defense to be accepted in the F-35 program again and to get Germany to accept to sell them Eurofighters.

[@brizzle3903]

@@AnimaChronix3 it actually does because Turkey can’t be in BRICS along with NATO The groundwork has been laid for Turkey to leave NATO even if it takes a few years it’s going to happen, the EU botched this one but then again those shady Europeans were never going to take in Turkey as an EU member Turkish people are looked down upon by the Europeans I guess the Turks are too brown for that crowd

[@brizzle3903]

@@AnimaChronix3 and when Turkey leaves NATO there goes the only military force in NATO that could be very formidable against Russia they also said they will not join in a fight against Russia if NATO were to declare war on them Same with with Hungary and Slovakia

[@kethughes8266]

@@brizzle3903 Turkey will not leave NATO they joined because Russia had territorial claims against Turkey they also dearly want to be European they have been trying to join the EU for decades.NATO will not declare war on Russia that's not what it is there for.

[@jojonesjojo8919]

This is pitiful stuff. This channel needs to focus on the main story - that the Ukrainians are retreating everywhere, and that Ukraine is doomed. It's long past time to negotiate and stop this war.

[@marisabenson1222]

Keep coping

[@jojonesjojo8919]

@@marisabenson1222 What are you saying. You think that Ukraine has the upper hand? The Ukrainians are retreating. The Russians are firing as much as 10 times as much artillery - artillery being the cause of death of the infantry 80% of the time. This is the reality. Do you honestly disagree with any of what I'm saying?

[@icu17siberia]

don't you get enough lies on your home grown channels like RT, Telegram, and whatever else?

[@evaluateanalysis7974]

Didn't you hear the interviewee say that Russia only makes small and insignificant advances? He explained that this won't help their long-term outlook. Разве вы не слышали, как собеседник сказал, что Россия добивается лишь небольших и незначительных успехов? Он объяснил, что это не поможет им в долгосрочной перспективе.

[@jojonesjojo8919]

@@icu17siberia Fine. Let's give it a few months and see where we are. I'll make a mental note to reply to this email exchange. Please do the same.

[@jimharmon1509]

Your numbers on mobilization are inaccurate.

[@philreap]

F this guy and his opinion on us politics. You pay for it dude.