Logan Mohtashami: Does the Fed need housing back to prevent a recession?

[@Elaw73]

Great info Logan. Excited to see you in OC this week. I just completed the sub form on HW website so be sure to approve Eric Lawson request.

[@LoganMohtashami]

I will see what I can do, the event sold out but we are trying to get more people in

[@bombasticlove76]

The right choice of an investment has always been a big problem for me I know picking a wrong investment will leave a big scar in the future..

[@mbnesbitt]

Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.

[@hamzahamza-bz3rf]

Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian C Nelson.

[@alasdekarton]

Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things

[@icucmerc]

Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit

[@MA-KEJointVenture]

I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommend Mr Brian Nelson. I met him at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.

[@bobr7955]

Logan, What are your thoughts on Harris' $25k 1st time home buyer assistance proposal? Some have panned it as pushing up prices in a supply constrained environment, but there's indications of softening so this might offset the softness.

[@LoganMohtashami]

I do not like demand-side stimulus when active inventory is below the five-decade average. Falling mortgage rates, especially when the economy is weakening, is fine, but that plan is no. However, I understand why they need sales to grow. Construction will only grow if new home sales grow. But existing home sales have been at record low levels for 3 years, so they're trying to grow sales. It's become a front-and-center topic. I will talk about this with Sarah in the next podcast

[@bentaillon9209]

Don't forget all of the other homebuyers programs that are already subsidizing demand.

[@sharonmoten5406]

I think it’s great, if it helps people get into homes that couldn’t otherwise qualify for. It’s no different than other DPA programs. I’m sure hers would have a different qualification. Let’s see what happens.

[@randypaul5427]

I agree. The Fed needs housing back to avoid a recession. Neel Kashkari is getting his panties in an uproar screaming “No Jobs or Housing for Anybody!”

[@LoganMohtashami]

Neel talked about that it's ok to talk about rate cuts now

[@NickYourHomeLoanFriendKrehnke]

Here is the problem with lower rates...it increases prices every time and higher prices are the worst enemy for affordability. Look what 2020-2021 did to home prices.! Same with the run up from 2003-2008. the only way I can think that would truly get the housing market stable in accordance to income-house pricing ratio, is no more non owner occupied residential housing allowed. One 1-4 unit allowed per social security number owner occupied required. I have had to do A TON of loans with multiple non married borrowers per loan to make the debt ratios work!

[@LoganMohtashami]

Mortgage rates were 3.25% and under, inventory was at all time lows, now rates are still above 6.5% with higher inventory. Nobody thinks rates are going back to 2.5%-3.25%

[@NickYourHomeLoanFriendKrehnke]

@@LoganMohtashami remember we said the same thing about the 2003 - 2008 run up and then look what in 2020 to 2021. Irregardless anytime the rates drop it just seems prices go up and honestly like I said I know it's a very very very very very very unpopular thing being that I'm a mortgage man and I work with agents and everything but I think eliminating non-owner-occupied residential real estate ownership is the only thing I could think that could actually work.

[@LoganMohtashami]

@@NickYourHomeLoanFriendKrehnke go back to 1942 prices always rise, only 2007-2011 were negative price years, early 1990’s was down 1%

[@NickYourHomeLoanFriendKrehnke]

@@LoganMohtashami lower rates make price rise quicker by far. Getting rid of an unoccupied residential real estate would solve it though

[@LoganMohtashami]

@@NickYourHomeLoanFriendKrehnke 6%-8% mortgage rates in 2023 had faster price growth than some of the years in the previous decade when rates were at 3.5%-4.5% The Fed has no model ever written where their dual mandate that they target home prices over the economy, this theory doesn't exist, if the labor market gets weaker rates go down, that's how cycles have worked for decades