Lumber Prices in 2024: What Lowes and The Home Depot are Saying...

[@lilBugger35]

I bought a lumber mill so I expect lumber prices to drop like a rock.

[@zedsdead5870]

Me too. I have somewhere north of 40k board feet of fir, sugar pine, western red cedar and valley ponderosa pine with about 6k brdft of it as cvg Doug fir. I'm set.

[@nunyabidness3075]

I feel you, man. Car prices waited months and months to correct. Eventually my car died and I bought the only thing I could find at MSRP that met my needs. That’s of course when the deals started showing up again.

[@user-ef3nu1eh7z]

I would say thank you for trying to save American Economy but why did the old owner sell,?? Last few years Forrest fires clear-cutting and increasing your cost of supply!!! When the fires create air quality issues other countries as well as across the ocean as far as Italy u!k france that is a lot of lumber lodss

[@shirley9066]

Can you tell me when?

[@toysoldier46552]

I got a line on free wood which I will mill down myself into usable lumber. Not paying these inflated prices.

[@props-model-shop]

Finding straight Lumber at these stores is like winning the Lottery.

[@johndonovan7018]

hahahah true!

[@ricardopadilla4711]

What's wrong with gay lumber?

[@johndonovan7018]

@@ricardopadilla4711 only a problem when you need it to fit in between other lumber

[@priestesslucy]

​@@ricardopadilla4711 it's crooked

[@JohnnyDouchbag-nr5yf]

It won't produce any offsprings

[@royc5936]

The worst part is not only is lumber exspensive, the quality sux...was at HD this weekend pulled 10 2x4x8 off the rack none had 4 edges, left went to 84 Lumber better quality and 2 dollars cheaper per board....

[@MicroSBs]

this seems to be the case with everything in life. Just low quality high prices.

[@godbluffvdgg]

84 lumber is awesome! I have one not too far away in Delaware...NO TAXES! ...:)...They're great for lam beams and trusses too...

[@chipsramek3868]

YOU Lie ... not ... $2.00 per 2x4 ... I also shop at one.

[@stevehartman1730]

Went to 84 lumber asked for string to secure lumber I bought n they didn't have anything but Tractor supply gave me some old belts from trucks and I got it home

[@ronpage101]

I call BS. Not for a 2x4.

[@oceanmariner]

From an old guy that built large boats, Home Depot and Lowes have crappy lumber. Their 2x4s are good for firewood. To get 2x4s from them I buy a 2x12 and if I'm lucky get 2- 2x4s out. When I was a kid, the average lumber was clear, tight grain.

[@eric_eagle]

Yep. I use their ground timber for some landscaping projects, but that’s about it.

[@nutbastard]

Old growth vs new growth. Tighter grain, higher density back in the day.

[@oceanmariner]

@@geocam2 We allowed the cutting of too many trees, too fast just to export whole logs. When I was a kid, 1940s & 50s, it was common to see a log truck with one huge log. Before WWII we exported lumber, not logs and thousands had jobs in mills. And now we're building houses over good forest and farm land. Someday this will be bite us.

[@robertmceuen3630]

I'm an old guy too. EVERYTHING was better when we were kids. But it gets sooo old hearing it from everyone our age. The country(world?)has "gone to pot."

[@oceanmariner]

@@robertmceuen3630 Sorry. But it could be good again.

[@JeffHaynes-i1c]

I was at Lowe's Friday planning on buying lumber and plywood for a couple of projects I had planned to do checked everything on my list went home with nothing. No wood projects this summer oh well.

[@jreeder6168]

Lowes should change its name to Highs

[@knirbnosaj1158]

and Home Depot to Home Despot

[@jreeder6168]

@@knirbnosaj1158 YES!!

[@DrinkEazyMoney]

Everyone is always high at Homes Depot. 🏠 🌿 😎 💨

[@timcisneros1351]

Bought a sawmill in 2022. Building a Timber Frame cabin for my wife and I to retire. A dream of mine for 35 years. Plywood sheathing and subfloor t&g have been expensive but I have had some flexibility in timing so I wait until I see a decline in prices and then buy. Bought 3/4" t&g subfloor for $27/ea. last month. I'll need 1/2" sheathing by September. When I see a softening in prices I'll buy all I need even if it's several months out before I need it. I have a network of friends who are builders and they keep an eye out for free building materials! I now have ALL of the insulation to complete the cabin (4x8 x2" closed cell foam boards) free. THAT was a score! Haha. Professional Blacksmith for 40 years.

[@pacman5511]

So cool any vids ??

[@mcburcke]

I've pretty much stopped doing projects that involve panel goods because of the ridiculous prices. Deflation of panel goods prices might get me interested again. Lumber seems about right.

[@CSmith-oz4wp]

The pricing has gone through the roof on some panel products. Retired from the building materials business six years ago. We always had ups and downs on pricing based on supply and demand. Another aspect was the conglomerates that have bought these lumber mills and now control the production output. When one of these mills are not profitable, labor cost are high or facilities are in a poor location they just shut it down. And those good old boys won’t invest to build another mill, just raise prices from the ones making money. They have a monopoly and Congress should break them up but they won’t, because they get donations from them.

[@rogerhodges7656]

HD spokesperson said that they are going to hold the prices. Prices remain the same. No discussions of lumber costs. HD continues to report record profits. F the customer.

[@MrKogline]

HD has reported a decline in Revenue as well as a noticeable decline in profits in the TTM...so...

[@brent4073]

Buy the main digital currency rather than their products.

[@John-Adams-Can]

Ford is doing the same. Refuses to lower 2023 trucks still sitting on lots for almost 2 years.

[@shawn576]

But remember that HD got absolutely screwed from 2022 to 2023. They stocked up at peak price and then the housing market crashed.

[@republicansthatdidntvotefo1605]

​@@MrKoglineThey reported 18 billion dollars in record Profits.. Poor home depot and Lowe's😢..🐑🐑🐑🐑..

[@kortyEdna825]

This global recession/collapse might end up being a part of us for a very long time. With inflation currently at about 9%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $680k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.

[@NoorJari406]

I'd advice you read up some good books on finances and investing, or just you get yourself a financiaI-advsor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.

[@KaurKhangura]

I agree, having a portfoIio-advisor for investing is genius! Not long ago amidst the pandemic crash in March 2020, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a license portfolio-advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $620k with the help of my advisor from an initial $120k investment thus far.

[@NicholasHarmon-ow3jl]

It's a good time to buy and basically I've just got cash sitting duck in the bank too and I’d really love to put it to good use seeing how inflation is at an all time-high, who is this coach that guides you, mind I look them up?

[@KaurKhangura]

There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@NicholasHarmon-ow3jl]

Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@bsrcat1]

I quit buying from Home Depot. They have completely lost their mind on their prices for plumbing, for stock steel for fabricating, not even going to go into their overpriced hockey sticks there selling as lumber. The prices have come down since the pandemic but they are still higher than lowes, and higher than Menards. Another thing that people don't talk about is the hardware... Nuts bolts screws at home Depot cost twice as much as what they do at Menards and the selection isn't as good. I know Menards isn't nationwide but I'll give you a for instance just in the last few days. I'm building a subframe for a lift crane for a pickup truck. I bought 10 ft of 3/16 square tube from a steel distributor. Angle and flats I get locally. I went to home Depot and there are 2x2 angle 36 in what's $30+. Same thing at Menards was $12. 2-in flat bar, 36in At home Depot was $28, at Menards it was 11. Five four boards for decking at home Depot are one and a half times the price of what I get at Menards. I used to frequent home Depot enough that I knew every single employee That worked first and third shift. I know two employees at Menards. I knew where everything was in home Depot... I'm still learning Menards. But I am loyal above all to my wallet. Maybe if home Depot didn't make so many political donations their prices wouldn't be so high. Now don't get me wrong I'll still go to home Depot now and again because it's closer so if I need something fast I can go grab it but if I'm doing a big project I'm not going to home Depot. Until they get their s*** together and figure out whether they want to be a hardware store and cater to their customers needs or be a political juggernaut they're not going to get any big money out of me. When I go to home Depot the way I look at it regardless of what I buy I'm losing money. It's no different than me going to the gas station to get soda that cost two times as much if I can just go to the grocery store and get it for half the price. It's strictly a convenience store now And I will look at it as such. Wood is just the tip of the iceberg to their pricing woes. What you need to include in the video is their profits for the last ex amount of years and even though lumber prices went down their prophet sure as hell didn't go down. That money is being made and they aren't going to give it up they're just shuffling it around and filtering it out raising the prices on other items trying to keep their contractors at least to some degree. I don't have time for all that. Businesses used to have highs and lows there's not a single business that is recording a loss or a even year every single year it's record profits... That isn't a sustainable business practice. It's great for shareholders but it really sucks for consumers. They got too high for me to be considered a home Depot consumer anymore.

[@cinemaipswich4636]

All the corporations sucked up debt/money when interest rates were 0.00001%. Now interest rates are 7.0000%, you will pay for the debt they did not have to carry. Where did all that cheap money go? To the Board of Directors mostly, and the shareholders, even though there was no growth in their corporation.

[@brent4073]

If only there was a name brand digital currency in ETF form that we could collectively buy to protest against our fiat currency system....

[@Hardworkandrealestateprofits]

I bought a bunch of OSB in January at $9 a sheet from Home Depot. I was finished with the project in April and the price of OSB was at $20 a sheet. I had nowhere to store my extra sheets so I took it back to home depot for a return even though I knew they would only give me what I paid for it. When I got to the store another contractor was loading up OSB. I ended up selling him all I had for $13 a sheet saving him money and making me a little extra. Win win 😂

[@branchandfoundry560]

So, your investment in "Lumber Futures" paid 30% dividends over three months. That's a great return! Speaking of return, both HD & Lowes here in Charlotte, NC will only give store credit past 30 days and will not accept returns at all after 90 days. Learned the hard way and got bit hard by that a few months ago.

[@eric_eagle]

Congrats, you are part of the problem.

[@Hardworkandrealestateprofits]

@@eric_eagle how is that?

[@eric_eagle]

@@Hardworkandrealestateprofits It helps condition people to artificially higher prices. I am not saying you’re evil! I am not saying it’s not your right to sell them for $100/sheet. I am only saying it’s not helpful to the society as a whole to help condition them to prices classes that are unethical.

[@Hardworkandrealestateprofits]

@@eric_eagle I don’t think you understood what I did. I had left over sheets from a project I had finished. So instead of returning those leftover sheets to Home Depot for the same price I paid for them I sold them to another contractor for $7 less then he would have had to pay at the time and $4 more then I would have received from returning them to the store.

[@tradermunky1998]

Real estate market hasn't really collapsed yet, when it does anything construction related will dump, and likely remain depressed for 3-5 years. Maybe more, we really blew a big bubble on this one.

[@s0nnyburnett]

*depressed for the depression

[@branchandfoundry560]

I'm looking forward to it! We have three buildings to build. Just biding our time before we break ground.

[@Cakebattered]

Unless ypu foresee REITs and other real estate investors dumping their inventories, there will be no real estate crash.

[@tradermunky1998]

@@Cakebattered I don't disagree.

[@dougbeard7624]

@@Cakebattered This. The real market is as low as it's going to go. It's about to go nuts again not slow down further.

[@Suds649]

I love how big businesses think that they should always be able to raise their profits every quarter and never go down. Money in circulation is how a capitalist economy works. As soon as greed causes a unbalanced concentration of money. The system fails. Poor people make a poor consumer market. Loans and credit cards only push the inevitable depression down the road. Bankruptcies will steal the wealth from the rich. If you have no consumers, you have no market to sell your products.

[@mindbender50]

Unless you have a consumer with a big credit card that they never have to pay .... I.E federal reserve/Government!

[@tristenklein5940]

Lumber price increases have nothing to do with greed it’s due to joes war against energy, inflation, radical environmentalists catered to by Joe attacking logging industry, and joes war on business via tax increases, out of control regulations to purposely destroy small businesses etc all those cost must be transferred to the end user, basic economics. Elections have consequences you get what you voted for!

[@GlueTubber]

Thank the courts in the 70's - corporate raiders (mostly T Boon Pickens) brought shareholder lawsuits against corporations, and the needle moved from "profitable and good for the country" to just "profitable".

[@petefraser3013]

Bingo!

[@tristenklein5940]

Big Government is the greediest and most corrupt in any country around the world! They are the cause and bare the largest responsibly for increases of products used by consumers and those cost must be passed down by corporations it’s basic economics 101!

[@jimwiskus8862]

Thank you for helping us wade through the jargon to better understand if we want to do a project or not! 😊

[@DIYwithDave]

Thanks for watching!

[@nexttime960]

Appreciate your translation to plain English, executive jargon to cover their butts, " that's not exactly what I said..." Just spit it out

[@defyslowmotion1]

As one of the largest HD pros in our metro I’ve noticed the prices going up on the sheet goods but when you talk with your rep you are able to get large price reductions to bring them back into line with the last few quarters.

[@madjackgamingandfitness498]

I bet they don’t want to bring some prices down. “We’re selling it for double and people are still buying it” really gets an executive giddy.

[@wallye8713]

Much prefer my local lumber yards (even though multiple HD’s and Lowe’s in same proximity)as their framing lumber is of a much better quality.. often better prices especially 7:44 when buying for large projects…

[@John-ou4rm]

Timber prices will drop in the 2nd half. Less demand, and even if Home Depot maintains prices it will simply lose on volume. Independent timber merchants follow the costs of wholesale timber much closer (imho).

[@DIYwithDave]

You may be right. We'll have to wait to see.

[@TheGuruStud]

Construction will be near zero by end of the year, so lumber will crash or production will have to be slashed.

[@One-way]

Everyone waiting to see what the elections say… Xiden, they tank. Trump, they recover and then to the moon.

[@shirley9066]

Second half of what? The year?

[@John-ou4rm]

@@shirley9066 Second half of today, tomorrow or year. What do you think given we're near the end of May? The default in finance is yearly, otherwise they talk of halves or quarters of that year

[@dmark6699]

Excellent report Dave. Lumber reminds me of new cars sitting without sales but prices remain high.

[@brent4073]

Blame the govt for printing tons of money and forcing the car manufacturers to put safety bells and safety whistles in every new car.

[@hendrikvandermerwe4978]

I think they will up the prices, but they will then realize it was a dumb move and have greater losses. All you have to do is look at the rest of the stats coming out - record HIGH credit card debt, record HIGH delinquencies, record HIGH late payments and repo's on auto loans, record HIGH mortgage defaults, the lowest rate of "savings" in accounts - and THIS will eventually catch up. Look at the auto market, some of these idiots have just upped the pricing on most of their new vehicles, EVEN though no-one's buying! Sadly, the middle class has been dwindling and they are deliberately killing off the middle class - all by design. Do not for one minute think these corporations have our interest at heart - they DON'T.

[@republitarian484]

But the government is worse.

[@paperburn]

WE have a local lumber mill that provides for Lowes. The Mills local stores provide the same products at about 25 percent less and are raking in the profits.

[@EcoMouseChannel]

It's crazy that the trees thought they could demand a pay raise.

[@gunsofsteele]

That's what happens when trees get organized and unionize.

[@Stopsign002]

There is unrest in the forest

[@Scott-sx1bf]

@@Stopsign002There is trouble with the trees

[@freespirit1975]

@@Scott-sx1bf GREAT Rush song!! Those entitled OAKS! How dare them!

[@Scott-sx1bf]

@@freespirit1975 Hell yeah! Poor maples are always getting bullied! 😂

[@JS-jh4cy]

It was like 12.xx for an 2 x 4 8 foot not too long ago in Canada... damn expensive even when we grow most of the wood.

[@boyscout419]

The Big Guy (upstairs) was looking over our family...In April/May, 2021, the builder of our new home had finalized his bid (right at the highest peak of lumber/panel prices). The lumber was actually ordered/purchased in early Fall of 2021 (after the huge downward move in prices). We ended up gaining several thousands of dollars in credit, and were able to go ahead with other things in our build...Then, lumber prices went back up. Timing is everything...

[@jw427]

Hurricane season opens June 1. We've already had significant tornado activity...

[@rossrainwater5619]

@jw427. Weaponized weather !

[@grannydeen1586]

I was building cabinets for a store and bought oak lumber from Lowe's. The lumber was nice. No problem there. One day I needed pine for another project and went to a local specialty lumber mill. They had the same grade oak lumber at a $5.00 savings. 1x6x8. Guess where I got the rest of my oak.

[@henryachey1441]

The problem I have is in the 70s 2x4x8 were .75 and that was southern yellow pine. Back then their was alot of hand work to give you a milled piece of grade A lumber, now they can clear 500 acres in 2 weeks, and in the matter of 1 month which is 10x faster with not alot of people and charge you 50x the price and its lower quality lumber like white pine which has a lower load limit. Home depot and Lowes buys #2 grade lumber and sells for #1. It's supply and demand, they get richer and we get poorer. Berni Markus who owned Home Depot in Atlanta made hundreds of millions off of it.

[@michaelsix9684]

if you can shop around for better lumber, avoid Home Depot

[@RichyN25]

The trash 2x4s you see from HD and Lowe's at times are ridiculous and I wouldn't even use them for framing a shed, missing chunks, massive splits, mold at some locations, completely unusable

[@UnfinishedRiot]

That 65$ panel is 28$ now, I was so pleasantly surprised when we had to replace some subfloor

[@branchandfoundry560]

Still a hard pill for me to swallow when I paid $7 for that same sheet in 2019. I know, I sound like my dad used to...when I was a kid, I bought a loaf bread for a nickel! No fun to realize I'm getting old 🤣 EDIT: The difference is he saw average 3% over his lifetime. This is 25% annual inflation rate over 5yrs, which is why it feels so rough.

[@bill16504]

Thing is, that $28 sheet you were happy about was $8 prior to this current government administration.

[@branchandfoundry560]

@@bill16504 In October of 2019 I paid $7/sheet, August of 2020 I paid $32/sheet, now priced at $21per sheet here in Charlotte, NC. If I wanted to tie the price hike to a president, I'd have to say Trump shot the price through the roof and Biden brought it down...some. Perhaps it's best we not tie it to ANY administration?

[@GlueTubber]

@@branchandfoundry560 in '78, my dad bought a Dodge pickup for $4000. I remember him cussing the whole way home about how the prices had gone up since he bought his first car...

[@goatman6151]

Weres 28 ? 46 a sheet here t+g

[@louiel8711]

For the price of plywood I'll just keep some projects on hold till it's a little more reasonable.

[@benzun9600]

Wont happen the government wants inflation.

[@HunterTN]

Prior to 2020 lumber was running on average $325-350/kbf for a long time, now it's $500+ but since that's better than $1,200+ people think it's getting back to "fair" prices. We're still looking at a 50-60% increase compared to pre pandemic.

[@cloudnationmedia8326]

I love this video! Can we get more content like this? Covering building material costs is very insightful.

[@allanhopkins5928]

Great report in terms I can understand

[@dennisclapp7527]

Thanks Dave. That was a very well reasoned analysis.

[@user-em6ie2be7x]

Thanks for the indepth Video...I have a few projects coming up and was wondering when would be a good time to get more lumber.

[@DIYwithDave]

Honestly, I think it's right now. I don't think that dimensional lumber can get much lower. Sheet goods are still double what they were before the pandemic, but I think that is the new normal. I don't expect those prices to come down much.

[@roboticsforfun5000]

I think that many people learn to be more efficient in lumber use when it was that high, and probably found alternative materials, leading to reduced need for lumber. I started using more "synthetic" lumber... PVC foamboard, for non structural stuff. For some projects, I use corrugated metal in place of plywood. Adds to the look.

[@chipsramek3868]

What Planet do You live on ... all metal prices are over the top.

[@roboticsforfun5000]

@@chipsramek3868 it is high. But I bought a stash of it earlier. Now I am out of it and plywood is reasonable, but I still prefer the look of the metal. So I am buying more corrugated metal. The point is, I am still not buying as much wood as I used to, and I think that some people are like me.

[@dennisniemier3024]

Good information here ! FJB thank you too.

[@Luwoze]

The CFO's calls are Wall Street jargon. What I saw was that the lumber prices went down only significantly after the mill's prices went down - which compensated for the overstock at high cost. Now that they are less pricey and probably stable, their profits are also down. They're not regaining the market as DIYs are not inclined to undertake projects with sheathing at a high premium. General contractors found new suppliers - often small mills or worked some deal with the larger suppliers' immense stockpiles. In short, GREED killed their sales.

[@troygoggans5495]

We live in a upscale neighborhood for this area that I live, with a number of home owners owning their homes outright. The average lot size is 2 acres with only 3 lots not built on, but in the back the lots are 5 to 10 acres and several loads of framing lumber have come into the neighborhood heading to the back lots. During 2022 and 2023 there were only 4 homes built on existing lots.

[@martinparmer]

Soooo a year or 2 ago when the lumber prices were skyrocketing, did these same guys get to report better, possibly massive improvements in profit? If so, now that the market is returning to some sense of sanity, we're supposed to feel their pain? If this is what happened, is happening... Please help me understand. If it is, I think (BTW I am a total capitalist), this short term memory is THE major problem consumers have with these "executives"

[@MicroSBs]

this is our world now. Prices go nuts the economy oh its so good. Prices deflate on their end and we all need to play violins.

[@johnroberts3824]

Short term memory is even more of a problem when people go to vote.

[@martinparmer]

@@johnroberts3824 and the government school baked in lack of intelligence.

[@jasonx-ray3921]

Two years ago they were concerned with all the lies and BS they had to come up with to justify blaming covid when we all knew it was sleazy, shameless corporate greed.

[@godbluffvdgg]

General Contractor, Philly area...My depot/lowes lumber is up 50% from when the fake shortage occurred...My rule of thumb for buying framing nominal lumber e.g. 2X6 about 1 buck a foot 2X12 about 2 bucks a foot...It was double that when the fugazi shortage happened...I've been in the business more than 30 years...Most of us know when it's coming...It's the poor customer that gets soaked and we often lose work to jabronis that don't consider the extra costs... Good health to all.

[@scottsutter8678]

As a lumber broker who sells millions of board feet of lumber a year I will say the following. I have been a broker for over 20 years and lumber markets go up and down like any other commodity and will continue to do so. That being said I see the rest of 2024 being flat with minimum upside risk. There are basically no indicators I see that will make lumber go up substantially in the majority of market areas. (I ship to all 50 states) On the other hand if you're waiting for lumber to go down to start a project that is also unlikely. The market has seemed to find the level its going to be at for sometime.

[@jettamaster3297]

flat goods prices are still ridiculous...so any increase in prices is unwarranted

[@teac117]

Use inflation adjusted graphs. It's 'stable' but means there will be uptick in price because of inflation. We are currently back on the line in the adjusted graphs (actually a bit below - avg being $650 current year USD). It'd need a structural cataclysm in housing for it to go back to nominal pre-pandemic.

[@ejh237]

I watch 2x4 studs and OSB sheets myself.. You quoted the price on tongue&groove sub-flooring (not the same) ;-) AND… if you look at Lowe’s vs Home Depot, Lowe’s has fewer SKUs, and they are more…. How do i say it… “for the wife”. Just look at lumber/construction placement in the two stores. And count the SKUs in the decorator items, i think you will find the inverse.

[@OzkAltBldgCo-bv8tt]

What we need now is 72 ft bentwood LVL bamboo boards Massive arching ridge beams

[@jctestpilot]

I like it when someone says "... prices are coming down..." Then they qualify it with "...it may not feel like it...". As if I cared about any kind of price decrease that you can't notice.

[@bullfrogg4119]

If you listened to the Home Depot call, the CFO was referencing an interest rate cut by the FED. If this does not happen, which I believe will be the case, HD will have to adjust their guidance, which will lead to lower target numbers.

[@DIYwithDave]

That is a great point!

[@petepuma-e7f]

Remember the days when you would go to a hardware store for hardware and a lumber yard for lumber, and a nursery for garden and lawn supplies a paint store for paint and..... well you get the point.

[@Gadfly2025]

When costs go down profits go up as stores don’t lower retail cost . Globally copper prices are booming

[@63SpaceGirl]

7:08 The effect of lumber sales on HD & Lowes will also vary depending on the percentage of over sales lumber provides

[@Fireballsocal]

OSB looks to still be more expensive than plywood. Did the glue supply ever come back online?

[@fauxque5057]

Due to all of the recent storms there is going to be a big demand for lumber. That is going to drive prices up.

[@ST-0311]

Likely, HD had more higher priced lumber stocked in storage. They got hit harder than Lowe's when deflation resulted in them having to move it at a lower margin, or possibly a small loss.

[@DIYwithDave]

I think that may be it.

[@ST-0311]

@@DIYwithDave Actually, the more I think about it the more likely it seems. Aside from their regular retail stores they've been expanding their Pro Distribution Centers. They just opened 4 new ones in March. Those are huge, and would require a lot of stock.

[@janghyuk8636]

try buying electrical wire, was doing some re-wiring at home and the price was crazy

[@blackmanops3749]

And it's all behind locked cages.

[@limestonecowboy9219]

Just paid 19.31$ a sheet for 1/2" osb and 3.44$ for a precut 2x4 stud at Bedford Indiana lowes today.

[@UrbanGardeningWithD.A.Hanks14]

Now might be the time to build that kickass deck you've always wanted.

[@cartdoc]

So.. after November 5 till the end of the year will be a good time to buy!

[@KieranMullen]

Both lowes and home depot are not giving contractor discounts at the bid desk in Oregon. Sales are sell doing well but they are keeping more of the profits.

[@AlsanPine]

lowes probably did not get stuck with so much expensive lumber when the price crashed. the only time deflation damages a seller is when they buy high and get stuck with it and have to take a loss.

[@cesarc6757]

Love your videos, thanks!

[@stevenrowlandson9650]

With home prices being so extreme relative to incomes I would think lumber prices would drop off along with people boycotting housing.

[@werquantum]

Lowes CFO previous job was the voice for weather band radio.

[@joanies6778]

Good info. We have an independant lumber co here...I should check them out before my next project.

[@kurtcpi5670]

He qualified the 2024 second half being "slightly better" (price increases) based on lower interest rates, and that doesn't look likely, at least not during the peak construction months. The combination of inflation and high rates really hurts the industry across the board. Building supply outlets need to be competitive of course. But their pricing can make or break a project on the construction side because the total cost to market is doubly inflated by the high rates. High prices + high rates = low growth (stagflation).

[@deltawildfire2422]

Very insightful

[@johnbelletti9516]

Sales of board feet along with retail value would be worth a look.

[@freedomliberty7611]

Great job Dave. As usual

[@patandsandytrierweiler2440]

From my experience, supplier relations are radically different. Home Depot buys electrical wire ( prob lumber too?) from supplier and ships/stores at the store. Thus the store bears the price changes. Lowes seems to ship to distribution center. In addition, Lowes requires supplier to maintain an exclusive Lowes stock for future Lowes purchases. Thus, the supplier bears the price fluctuations. It's more along the lines of "just-in-time" restocking.

[@JS-mh9uu]

They are colluding and price fixing. There are only a handful of large lumber stores and they are working together to maximize profits. It isn't a mill problem because if there was a material shortage issue then the mill would always be purchasing and they aren't. There is more than enough supply the reason they aren't over producing is the stores pricing is what's controlling the outflow.

[@DJtheLoungeLizard]

Interesting and informative video. For clarification, more comp sales does usually mean better, but not always. Depends on your margins and other items. First HD relies more on contract sales, so you expect a lower profit margin on high volume lumber products. Whereas, Lowes is more end user focused. So, the impact on their overall profits should be less impactful. It would also be interesting to know HD’s and Lowes’ sourcing. Maybe suppliers were not impacted the same from one region to another. Also, lumber prices are not set on the same day they are received, so there may be variance among when lumber contracts were signed. I’m sure there are other differences, like Lowes may purchase more higher end lumber that they can more easily raise prices.

[@williammorris3815]

The initial Greedflation turned me off to lumber and building. The current deflation never turned me on to lumber and building, they lost a customer. Choke on the stuff Greedflators.

[@republitarian484]

That makes sense. . .not. So why are lumber prices so low right now then? If they're greedy then why did they ever lower them?

[@SFCaliofUSA]

It’s hard to do businesses with companies that don’t accept contactless payment

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[@KrisNachtigallDomitrovich]

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[@ColleenMartinez-lj6ok]

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[@ColleenMartinez-lj6ok]

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[@Josephmaigue-ju5ib]

Can I also do it??? My life is facing lots of challenges lately

[@solarforfuture]

roll of romex doubled overnight.. last season now down 15%. so still way up... big gauge went up more.. 6 bucks a foot? yikes. was a good time to retire...

[@republitarian484]

Are you sure it's previous period? Or is it the same period but prior year? That would make more sense as to compare to prior year periods is more relatable based on seasonal activity.

[@retiredlogman]

In my Florida county housing starts are very few compared to recent years. Homes for sale are increasing and months on market are increasing. This could be the start of either a correction or collapse. Whatever it does I believe we will see a further drop in lumber and sheet good prices.

[@billsmith5109]

Banks aren’t going to mortgage uninsured property. They know the home insurance industry is walking away from Florida.

[@rnp1785]

Life was so good in 2003 when OSB was only $5.50 a sheet.

[@tweb3282]

Life was good in 1979 when gas was 69 cents a gallon. Sh!t and we thought that was high.

[@brent4073]

@@tweb3282 Prices of things should naturally decrease over time. It is our govt funding forever wars that make all this stuff expensive, read 'The Bitcoin Standard'.

[@edisonhargrove]

In anchorage ak 4x8 osb 135$ this was during 2021

[@aaronblackford981]

I know only What I know. My small town has a Lowe’s but no depot. And I was shocked they ever put one in here. Maybe their willing to get more stores. Which helps since country life does do country life. We do what we need to to do when we need to. We do see prices much better than others and understand cost rising is kinda normal. But since pandemic, okay. It’s down. Buy one before it’s higher

[@FortniteOG420]

I was gonna build a house at the beginning of this year, then lumber OSB went from $13.50 a sheet to $24, I will not buy these stupid prices for lumber. These idiots at the corporations don't understand less people will buy their lumber if they price most people out of it to begin with.

[@michaelstevens3479]

So the big boys idea that a monopoly can charge what it likes only works up to the point where the customer cannot afford it? seems to apply to most things these days.

[@mrrazr8079]

IMO price of lumber may go up in second half if the Fed lowers rates which is inflationary (6-18 months down the road) creating demand in new home construction, more than usual named hurricanes hit land or more Canadian fires destroy supply! I can see stable price in plywood due to high energy cost to manufacture.

[@enthused7591]

Deflation in the entire economy, along with home values is coming as well though. All the math shows it. Unemployment will unfortunately triple, but it's inevitable and necessary at this point. We stacked two 2007-style bubbles on top of each other. Target already just announced that they lowered prices to below Walmart prices in a couple thousand items because the bottom 85% of US consumers are so broke.

[@migo-migo9503]

If the market demand for lumber is not enough they will be forced to lower their prices. It doesn't seem like a lot of builders are wanting to start many projects due to high interest cost. So I'm hoping that will force lumber prices down.

[@johnwalker7592]

I've been sitting on eight sheets of half inch marine grade plywood for over five years now. I haven't needed it for its application since I stopped working on boats. so I haven't had to buy any in over five years... but five years ago? I think it was fifty some dollars a sheet. During the 2021 highs. I could not believe that not even ground contact or cabinet grade the home centers were going for $65+ USD I suspect I'm sitting on at least eight hundred dollars worth of marine ply...

[@scottsteele1908]

My grandfather told me 40 years ago that the leading indicators of the economy are milk and lumber prices. That’s because as people have less money to spend they stop buying pizzas and ice cream and revert to more food staples. With lumber they stop working on their houses as they have less disposable income. For 40 years I saw what he said is true. We are heading into a major recession and the lower lumber prices are showing that.

[@erichvonmolder9310]

What is bad to them can potentially be good for us, of course not good for shareholders of Lowes, HD and just general contractors. It is possible that the market is correcting itself which will go into 2025, therefore, I would not be a buyer of their stock. Hold the stocks, but don't buy more, unless you are doing dollar cost averaging - a very good analysis. The Contractors on the other hand, need to buckle up and lower prices, which may cause lay-offs, unless you undercut your competition so much you get all the business, which will potentially help in subsequent years when things get back to normal, then you can start raising your prices. Buckle up

[@FreeThaSpeech]

How about selling low grade lumber tagged as prime

[@purtis99]

hopefully they says they are going to get better quality boards

[@HealthyDisrespectforAuthority]

They both might sell more if they'd fix their websites. Lowes just right out says access denied and Home Depot's product pages have no products.. they have specs, Q&As, reviews but no add to cart button, no pics.. no add to wish list link.. across 4 browsers. One of them starts loading product pages correctly and then the top part of all pages just vanish.

[@TheRealPlato]

thanks for a clear and concise video. there's no link in description to submit lumber prices. whenever possibly I buy rough hewn from sawmills, most recently common2 4/4 red oak at $1/bf. midwest

[@RonHelton]

With all of the storm damages this year, I will not be buying any lumber except for repairs. I had some projects in mind, but I can't add more fuel to the fire.

[@-randychasechase2660]

Measure it the sizes are being cut to rip us off . Shrinkage is in the depot to

[@donaldhudson2235]

Look i worked in the logging Industry you would not believe the Amount of Lumber logs we produced a year. 😮😮

[@Alacritous]

Corps are all gouging. Market force pricing is gone.

[@matthaddershow]

Personally, I've pretty much given up on trying to predict lumber prices. When I think they'll go down, they go up and vice versa. Why? Because what investors look at aren't the same things I am, clearly I'm a lot more pessimistic than they are. As for CHARTS....IF I look back at the 20 year average for lumber and, excluding the blips, lumber seems to average $350 per 1000 bft. +/- $100....so, essentially ranging from $250 - $450. this would SEEMINGLY put lumber today at the high side of the 20 year average range right now, meaning it could fall another 25% before hitting "average". Again this is taking out the extreme dips and extremely high peaks we see during housing market explosions/crashes OR pandemic induced shortages. This would simply put lumber today into a more normal trading range. Obviously, you'd need to adjust for wage/COGS inflation to see where the ideal range would be. If I were to "guess" and I admit I'm not great at this one as I tend to be more pessimistic than most, I'd say retail lumber will drop another 10-20% (average) with sheet goods having the most to collapse while sticks don't move much. IF we hit a recession, then the floor collapses and who knows? IF they cut rates (probable) then the floor holds as speculative money floods the market in anticipation of new home construction (cheaper money/borrowing costs) and the likelihood of increased spending and weakening supply. Right now, IF I were to predict.....(take with a grain of salt)....the fed cuts rates. Speculation pushes up commodity prices including lumber. If so, then we may see a brief dip in prices further (pre-cut) but then 4th Qtr prices move higher and balance out the 2nd half of '24. So, if you need lumber, between now and late August might be your window. The FED is anxious to cut rates but won't unless inflation cools. The latest CPI shows it cooling (slightly) lead by energy prices (what a joke). So, the FED will probably wait until Sept/Oct to lower rates IF another report (Aug) shows "cooling". Truthfully, the "cooling" in inflation isn't anything to write home about. We still have inflation +50% over target (2%) so logically, they shouldn't cut rates till we reach target which is why all of this is speculation at best. They want lower rates, Powell has hinted at this but needs a rationalization to do so. He might have been given one today but we'll see. I think he'll wait until we have another "cool" CPI report before leading the Fed to cut. Of course, none of this doesn't preclude the possibility that speculative investors jump the gun and we see lumber futures rise prematurely, thereby causing consumer lumber inflation.... As for me, I'm going to buy whatever I need for my projects now, enjoy the savings, and not whine if the prices drop another 10% which I HOPE they do.

[@maherfares7762]

they are fixing the prices

[@johnnynick6179]

Good.... prices have been broken for a long time.