Machine Learning Baseball Prediction Picks - September 5, 2024

Machine Learning based picks for Major League Baseball games for September 5, 2024. We forecast probabilities for the winners of every major league baseball game and then compare them to the odds to see which ones have a strong enough edge to bet.
#machinelearning #mlbpredictions #mlbpicks #mlbbestbets #mlbpickstoday #mlbfreepicks

[@LynoldMercado]

so how does the module work? It is my understanding that module tends to pick who's going to win a match + have favorable odds / payour over the long run rather than this particular head to head, is this a fair assessment? I say this because looking at the white sox win over baltimore the other day, the line up I think it was bet on the White Sox at +325 not because it thought they were going to win, but because the pay of them winning vs the payout of baltimore winning was drastically higher.. And now we see a similar set up with Rockies vs Braves. Braves have won both games so far over the rockies by at least 1.5 and now the module is saying taking the Rockies money line at +266 despite Braves have a way better pitcher. Curious to hear your thoughts!

[@numeristical]

Right, the idea is not "bet this team because they will win". Rather, you bet a team because you believe the probability of them winning is high enough that it is a "positive Expected Value" (+EV) bet. Mathematically, if you make positive expected value bets, in the long run you should make money (though it may take a while to get to the "long run"). So, given the models predictions about a set of games, it will suggest a bet on any team if "the price is right" (i.e. if the payoff is favorable enough). If it thinks the White Sox will win only 20% of the time, but the bookies are offering +1000, it is a good bet. Despite the fact that the very likely outcome is that you will lose the bet.