Managing 0 DTE Options Risk | Zero Days to Expiration Crash Course

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[@TL50-r9f]

I do 0DTE balanced FLYs on SPX later in the day between 1pm and 3pm EST. , noting the average of the highest open interest call and put strikes at market open, then note the highest volume averages between the call and put strikes on the options chain and the options time and sales through the day for an pin estimate. When gamma increases slowly and follows a strike within those averages I am usually within 5 points of the close. Low implied vol. makes the spread more expensive compared to higher implied volatility/expected moves. Usually works better during balancing days rather than rip your face off rallies or dumps. I usually close the FLY close to market close rather than waiting for the EOD close on SPX at 4pm before the late day bots and market makers scratch portions of your winnings.

[@Cheesinfornoreason]

Would you be open to doing a video call with me? 1 day and simply walking me through making one of these trades. I'm just a hands-on learner. I'm trying to learn from tasty trade and reading explanations. But I don't feel I'll ever really learn it un less. I click the mouse myself, you know?

[@cluggyahoo]

interesting but at that time (1pm to 3pm) the cost of a buterfly is expensive. How wide are your wings?

[@TL50-r9f]

10 to 20 points@@cluggyahoo

[@TL50-r9f]

calculated gamma script. shows real numbers over 4000 not 0.2 you can see where most of the delta is pushing or holding. I just need to figure a delta adjusted gamma script to perfect it.@@cluggyahoo

[@mindpotential]

@@Cheesinfornoreason I would love an education session myself

[@milton112]

I trade 0dte bc of defined risk AND bc they’re cheap. I prefer to watch the stock without using Butterfly’s, etc. I scalp but will hold longer if trend is present. The leverage and defined risk makes this the perfect vehicle for me personally. I apply technical analysis to the chart, i.e., supply/demand, T-lines and the 20 & 200 sma. I keep loses small and end my day at my planned area of profit. 1-3 trades total on any day and no more.

[@mythotical406]

What about a swap? On SPY, I'll often trade 3 DTE debit spreads. If the underlying moves in my favor I will often sell a credit spread with the same width and sharing the same short strike. This strategy will lock profit with a net credit, and if it is still OTM it has a chance of max profit on the expiration day. If the short leg is threatened, I simply manage the position by closing it. I also use this strategy on equities with 15-30 DTE if I am expecting a trend. Last year I was able to swap a debit spread and lock in 2,400% on TSLA and then close the butterfly on expiration day for an additional 1,200% because my cost on the debit spreads was only $0.04 on $5 wide.

[@hc5664]

Great content and channel! I have a smaller account and trade $10 wide 0DTE SPX butterflies for $1 or less per contract. My strategy is buying 4 lots, selling 2 at 100%, 1 at 200%, and let the last one ride. Max gain is 1000% if it pins. Obviously doesn't work everytime but my win rate is around 40% give or take.

[@markmazurik8329]

Can you give an example with strikes and prices?

[@hc5664]

@Mark Mazurik today I did the 3985/3995/4005 call fly which I got for 0.95 to start. Bought 4 contracts. Then as SPX went up I gradually sold and took profits and let the last contract ride to expiration. Sometimes I exit the entire position if the trade isn't going my way. SPX settled around $4003 so today's trade was a winner. Sold 1/2 my position at 1.9(100%) so then I can't lose. Sold 1 additional contract at 2.85(200%) and let the last one ride. Last one finished at 2.1. Today's trade ended up in the cash zone but if SPX is moving too far out I end up closing the trade early to preserve profits.

[@stacyracy9770]

@hc5664 So when your in futures you get paid automatically, but SPY you have to physically sell. I haven't held mine into close because I'm afraid I won't get filled, but that's when the highest profit potential can be made. Have you tried this with SPY and held into close? If so did you have trouble getting filled? Also if you see the make going a certain direction have you sold out of the lower and kept the profitable side. I know it opens you up to risk, but on a day like today you could have dumped the written out and rode the puts down.

[@hc5664]

@@stacyracy9770 Better tax treatment if you use SPX instead. And no I sell the entire fly not legs. Although I may "leg in" to a fly(e.g. buying individual wings first then selling the bodies) and it becomes a lot cheaper or free(net credit). You can also get around the PDT by "legging" into a fly and letting it expire if you have a net credit or doing a synthetic close.

[@stacyracy9770]

@@hc5664 Thanks for the great info.

[@phillipborghuis9801]

This was not your best explanation guys. I came away more confused. A risk curve would be helpful to see as would example positions.

[@constantins5549]

The presentation suppose that the participant knows the basic strategies.

[@Cyberfriend2]

I speak English, & Im still trying to translate 😂

[@sbtopjosh4098]

That's the idea

[@cesariruegas8823]

The PowerPoint slide is really all you need to understand what they’re getting at

[@colbychase8935]

😊😊😊​@@constantins5549

[@bulmascouter8712]

This channel is unique source of information, many hope you never stop

[@PRAISEYESHUA1111]

The beauty of this is that even if they do stop, their channel has so much shared knowledge that you'd find an answer to just about every question you have

[@DELPHIIII]

Invaluablllleee to young traders. Can't say thank you enough.

[@Tailgun]

What about a 30-wide butterfly that's out of the money? Place your pin strikes at a point where the cost is approx 1/10th the width, insuring a 1:9 (or greater) risk to reward ratio? This could be a daily SPX strategy taking advantage of an asymmetrical R:R, even using multiple flys on the same 0DTE.

[@cluggyahoo]

Ernie's style ?

[@SangNguyen-cg5xr]

won't you have to move your break even pretty far out to achieve that rr ratio? by then, what are the odds spx will move within your range?

[@allaccess4172]

Long butterflies need to be asymmetric for long term profit. Call fly to the upside and out down.

[@constantins5549]

How much profit would you expect? A fly makes the most profit/loss before the expiration (maybe 3-4 days before). Why do you think that they started to trade 0 DTE flies?

[@dansfunnyvideos]

From my experience, the SPX Expected Move is usually much smaller that the actual price move most of the time. And these flies will quickly turn into a loss when there are trend days, which also seem to be happening more and more. The price trend moves too quickly outside your P/L tent before you can capture Theta. Also, I found that Iron Butterflies were much easier to enter, exit, and roll than straight flies. It's more difficult to get a reasonable price market for the ITM legs of a fly than the OTM legs of an IB.

[@FMD023]

@@dansfunnyvideos spx has been moving only 38 points each way on avg. that’s the ATR it has been moving at over 70 like last year. The volatility started slowing after March this year. We are in bull run n u know the rules, don’t fight the trend when s&p are making new ATH. Until we get a clear sign of the downside, volatility is gonna remain low and vix will be stuck at 13-14

[@jackcheadle3]

To be clear on that last slide (not the take aways). There is a 75% chance of making a 25% profit on any of those?

[@nevinyoung9147]

The good thing about these is if you put on something like a 30 wide, it does not lose much value unless you get either really late in the day or really far out of range. As long as it stays in range, you can wait to cut it only if it goes outside range and then maybe only lose 100-200.

[@ACR4008]

11:30 this is key - love this. The idea of butterflies always intrigued me, but they were never meaningful in their movement until expiration.

[@finanzferdinand9874]

This show is too technical for beginners but I certainly still rate it

[@qtube173]

I am a little confused are you buying butterflies for a debit and then selling them before close for a profit target of 25-50%? Also what is an example of this trade would it be Buy $3885 Sell 2 $3915 Buy $3945 Calls(SPX Closed Friday at $3916) for a debit? I wish they would put an example trade or something visually, but I still appreciate the content!

[@allaccess4172]

Yes they are long for a debit. Yea your example is good.

[@sergeilaptenok7672]

​@@allaccess4172 Why are they doing that instead of iron butterfly for credit? Is there any advantage?

[@constantins5549]

@@sergeilaptenok7672 Margin.

[@ethanluo7355]

@@sergeilaptenok7672 they are trying to pin the market with known maxim loss when they start the trade (which is the debt they pay)

[@ShoresOfHelll]

Wouldn't theta decay for 0 or 1dte kill the debit they at paying.

[@myrealtv7830]

This research was very interesting and informative. Can you also do the same backtest with an Iron Condor at 50 delta, 40 delta, 30 delta and 25 delta with $10, $15, $20, $25 and $30 wings please?

[@ShoresOfHelll]

So this is a debit trade,. Why is debit low when IV and expected movie is high?

[@usa4ever711]

Tom I MISS the Trader's Expo in NYC! When will it come back to the NY Marriott? Yes they tried going to the one in Brooklyn but that area is dead! The Times Square area is where the action is! I miss you guys! I'm sure you guys can find a way to bring that back if you want to and you have the money to make that happen! Think about it, this is just a once a year event! It was good times! Greetings!!!

[@ramkagarwal7259]

Show me the best strategy at 931-950Am And 345-400pm You guy are smart, mak a video

[@ramkagarwal7259]

Make a video please

[@tinaxia7064]

I got a few questions on slide 2 (4’’) 1. ATM body + 30 wide wings, does this mean the two short options are ATM? and the long options one is 30 ITM and another is 30 OTM? 2. In the example, it is call butter fly, is the conclusion same for puts butterfly? 3. I find the bid-ask spread is huge for butterfly (no matter call or put), how much is this impact the profit? Thanks!

[@constantins5549]

puts or calls fly behave the same. In a debit fly delta neutral, the shorts are at ATM, the longs are above and below the shorts (basically a fly is 2 spreads, a debit and a credit, except the Iron fly which like the IC is 2 credit spreads (one put one call). The shorts are ATM, How could be the wings? Please learn and understand what is a fly. Do not trade what you do not understand.

[@dexy7150]

Hi guys, how do you calculate the expected movement for this strategy?

[@constantins5549]

The rule is the same for any strategy. Do not forget, the expected move has a probability.

[@motishorhaham9105]

The easy way is to sum the ATM call and put premium's. You can verify by looking at the 16 delta range to be equal to 2xEM.

[@richardgshields]

All i know is 50% of the time it works 100% of the time

[@akalksander9184]

The probabilities make sense. I trade short butterflies at the beginning of the day and when volatility is high the premium is lower.

[@constantins5549]

how wide?

[@kottkecoaching]

i trade 30 wide. but given the probabilities it doesnt seem to matter. sell for credit and take up to 50% return inside 67% odds. seems very good. and if you're wrong just buy to cover the body, and make it into a condor.

[@hectornonayurbusiness2631]

I’m still confused on how this strategy generates a profit.

[@myrealtv7830]

Do you mean 25% of credit received from an Iron Fly or 25% of the debit paid on a Butterfly?

[@alohaannie5076]

HUH? Am I buying at the money or selling at the money? All calls or calls and puts? Please don’t assume everyone knows. That’s why some of us came to find out. The explanation between the two of you is as clear as mud.

[@gultim59]

What is the best ODTE options strategy?

[@yamisohi]

Credit spreads. Iron butterfly is overrated.

[@constantins5549]

The butterfly is more money efficient than a credit spread at the same risk. While with a credit spread you risk to not be filled to take a certain loss, with a long fly you cannot loose more than what you trade and much easier to adjust, mostly if you trade in a 25K account or more.

[@dieselviper7811]

Otm butterfly if you have a directional bias. Batman if you don’t

[@richardbaxter7343]

hi guys. Can you please tell me when you are releasing a ODTE on Credit spreads or Iron Condors?

[@gtcstorm40]

What is probability of max loss, 50 pct loss. etc ?

[@tinkertanner165]

When you say 0DTE and you’re given 1DTE data😂

[@jimparsons6803]

Interesting. So it is the vehicle and not the strategy? Same thing aren't they?

[@shanenorth8663]

What about daily Broken Wing Butterflies?

[@allaccess4172]

Look at the prices for that. R:R isn’t as good.

[@allaccess4172]

For a credit would work

[@stanleytomasetti1074]

no other channel delivers this much info

[@constantins5549]

Maybe, if we do not know it does not mean that it does not exist.

[@grahamlamb8473]

Interesting Vid, thx. So, you are opening a trade near the open. Are you just playing the IV? I.e., you are just buying a put based Fly (or call), and basically setting profit levels?

[@KT-zx9jr]

Great work gents, thanks.

[@TheGreyGhost_of43rd]

This strategy is like printing money

[@chaitanyawalhekar3023]

How do you calculate the expected market move?

[@run2daylite19]

Platform shows it on the options chain

[@Marcg359]

Hi.. so today i was looking at that butterfly strategy on SPX, amd the price was like 18.00... what am i missing?

[@FMD023]

Yes and u profit u want that 18 to turn into 7 or less. That’s where the profit comes

[@JoeT876]

How do you handle losers?

[@ac-ir9gs]

Martingale

[@zo9fg]

Commissions and liquidity of butterflies are huge problems. How to solve this?

[@Md-ht3cg]

Commissions might be a thing with all the legs, especially depending on how many contracts you put on, but I've never had problems with liquidity on SPX, SPY, or the S&P futures unless it was the last 10 minutes of the day

[@samwalker3441]

Hi Guys. Great content, as always. Love Market Measures. I recently saw that the Fed has tightened up the forgiveness ability for PDT. Therefore, I am way concerned about making a mistake that would freeze my account. Can you guys comment on the following? If I enter a 1 DTE SPX BF on a Monday and then exit on Tuesday and don't enter another trade in that product until the following Monday, do I trip the PDT rule because each trade included 4 legs? I am totally confused on this one and don't want to be wrong. Thanks.

[@constantins5549]

Maybe your broker is different. THele has been the same for at least 20 years: In a less than 25K account, 3 round trip trades in 5 consecutive business days. Round trips meaning open and closed IN THE SAME DAY. 0DTE does not imply that you have to close the trade (on SPX), but in general you have to exit with 10% pretty soon. A directional fly could make the 10% or more profit in 10 min.

[@tekst3r]

if u get PDT just need to keep account above 25k

[@constantins5549]

@@tekst3r This is correct. But in a IRA you cannot deposit as much as you need.

[@constantins5549]

PDT refers at trades opened and closed THE SAME DAY (round trip trades). All the other trades, do not count against the PDT. 4 legs or 10 legs, one contracts or 10 contracts, it is a trade. The best way is to talk with your broker about each situation. Like any other rule, there are exemptions. PDT does not allow you to open and close the trade the same day, if you had already 3 round trips in 5 business days. If you have 1DTE trades, and you open it today and closed it tomorow, you can close leg by leg the next day (which is not recommended) and they do not depends on on PDT.

[@Cheesinfornoreason]

Or trade with cash?

[@J0setube]

What about selling butterflies?

[@constantins5549]

In a big day is better to sell a fly, but the credit depends on the fly spread (small spread, small credit) and difficult to close at your price. Like any credit transaction, you want to expire above or below the fly range.

[@Fingobob]

Hey guys, brilliant talk on 0 DTE. How much capital would you use as a % of the portfolio would you employ and what time would you put the trade in and when do you take it off irregardless of outcome.

[@Md-ht3cg]

I think they said in an older video on 0 DTE that they'd risk less than normal because of less ability to manage the trade vs a normal tasty style 45 DTE, but don't quote me on it.

[@constantins5549]

For delta neutral fly and 10% -15% no more than 2 hrs. For directional fly, the most recent lasted 11minutes. But in general, 0 DTE is 0 DTE, on SPX is the same day.

[@rexhecks3307]

Despite the dip in crypto, I still thank you for the level-headed financial advice. I started stock and crypto investment with $4,345 and since following you for few weeks now, I’ve gotten $18,539 in my portfolio. Thanks so much Mrs. Karen Cosmann.

[@kennguyen4540]

I'm surprised you know her too. I've been making a lot of profits investing with her for a few months now.

[@rexhecks3307]

investwithcosmann,, that's it

[@Ojassway]

boats 🤖🤖🤖

[@Vinny1USA]

THIS IS A SCAM, PLEASE DONT FALL FOR THESE PEOPLE .

[@grahamlamb8473]

Oh, and the "30 wide" fly is wing to wing or 30 from ITM?

[@techfactsglobal2571]

Why not iron condor?

[@constantins5549]

no margin, easier to adjust

[@lin-joglobal769]

Saw

[@nishanthnellutla]

If we put on a butterfly for 4$ and we take it away for 1-1.5$, effectively we'll be in debit after brokerage and commissions. Isn't it? Brokerage is 1$/contract.

[@_tizzle]

$4 x100 = $400. SPX options are in lots of 100.

[@Md-ht3cg]

All options are in lots of 100 shares, and he's talking in multipliers - buying something for "$4" means buying it for $400. So buying it for 4 and selling for 5.5 = $150 profit before commission

[@nishanthnellutla]

@@Md-ht3cg thanks guys for the clarification.

[@nishanthnellutla]

@@_tizzle 👍

[@_tizzle]

Just getting started, but looking good TL research team!

[@oberstvontoffel]

"nobody can manipulate the s&p futures" I laughed so hard I had tears in my eyes. 😂😂 Now I know for sure... They will never change the price engine😉

[@VirmanaMarketing]

Now we are getting somewhere

[@user-ht7jt2gr5j]

Absolutely. When they started this research with naked options. it was just a starter. Not getting anywhere. But this one was good!

[@VirmanaMarketing]

@@mbgghh6543 I don't follow them anymore because their method of trading is just bonk IMO. I hope they use the research team wisely to talk about 0DTE and this is the first decent video, but my only gripe with them is that nobody publishes their P&L. Tom is executing 80 trades + per day... if the tasty way is truly profitable show the P&L. Tom is almost a billionaire (may is already) and whatever money he trades is only to keep him entertained and filming shows. I would love to see them giving Errol a real account and have him trade their method and show the P&L. That would be helpful.

[@VirmanaMarketing]

@@mbgghh6543 they all trade Tasty’s money. I don’t think anything is personal there. I worry they have a paper trading version of the platform only available for them. P&L trumps all honestly. If it works, then share. That’s all I ask

[@constantins5549]

@@mbgghh6543 & Ayn. I have an excellent instructor. With an average investment of $2000 in any trade, in 25 trades from Jan 3 to April 4 this year, I had a 75% return. Could be more for a very disciplined trader and w/o mistakes (add instead to close, sell instead to buy, internet down, mistaken the sell price, etc). As we know, the same trade could be excellent, very good, good or a loss, depending of who execute it. This is trading, like any job it has very good employee and/or less good. It does not mean that if I know very well the theory, my execution is the same, mostly when I cannot focus on the trade, when I do not take the loss, when the market moves fast against my position, when I talk on the cell or I watch TV, etc. With a much younger team, under my supervision, the results could have been much better.

[@lampkin9287]

@@VirmanaMarketingdo it yourself and tell us what happens.

[@Marisung]

Yeah, a gift from heaven..thank you guys for this effort! Hopefully you check also some other popular strategies but this one here seems to be a good deal. Go for gold!

[@xyz9250]

Could you model to vary the wing by the implied move? I suspect the higher IV day may have higher PoP

[@federica5873]

Any chance for an early assignment with that DTE?

[@Rob-db4cc]

SPX is european style options, no early assignment/exercise. If you do a 1 day on SPY, there is always a chance of early assignment.

[@federica5873]

@@Rob-db4cc You cannot trade SPX over 0 DTE, right? Min is 1 month

[@Rob-db4cc]

@@federica5873 SPX has a new chain every day. SPX has a mar 21, 22 , ,23, 24 expiration this week. pick the number of days out you want.

[@constantins5549]

@@Rob-db4cc and dividend, and more commission than SPX for the same gain. 10contract SPY=1 contract SPX. SPX is cash settle, no margin call (except the stupid brokers), never loose more than whatever you paid for a long fly, if you do no manage the trade.

[@BarnabyFalls]

Way too long to get to the point.

[@edwinbab3205]

How can I make 2k weekly income and how much capital I need

[@tonylopez2030]

200,000

[@quantum7401]

$60k

[@Md-ht3cg]

@@edwinbab3205 realistically there are many strategies you could use. They all involve doing a lot of work however - nobody can give you a foolproof way that never fails. Anybody who says they can is a liar.

[@edwinbab3205]

@@Md-ht3cg thanks where can I get more information

[@TL50-r9f]

Not trying to trade every day thinking you can profit every day. Wait for the trade to come to you. It's not how much you make it's how much you don't lose. Be patient every day, week or month depending on your trading style. That's how people grow trading accounts.

[@prodoman3945]

Guess I'm a natural

[@TheBenkinsstephen]

I am an options trader for 12 years there are many disadvantages and risks in this strategy .. they hid it all. please dont fall in this trap

[@mindpotential]

Can you please educate on a method that you think works better with lower risk?

[@FMD023]

U must suck because I recently learned this strategy from someone and I’m netting 1300 everyday. First week I backtest and green. Lowest take was 940. I went live on the butterfly yday. 1 lot yday 1300 and today was 2 lot 1200. Today was horrible risk reward because I’m risking 14000 to make max 7k. I was lucky to net 1200 today. This strategy works if u know what u are doing and when to get out. I scalp spx so when I learned about this butterfly and the numbers were so positive I had to trade it every day

[@TheBenkinsstephen]

@@FMD023 u must be losing now

[@FMD023]

@@TheBenkinsstephen no. If you trade at open and close before it’s near the breakeven u will be green. Yes this last few days if u let it exp, you will be in the red 20-35%. I have been collecting when I’m at 15% these last few days. I’m netting about avg per trade 400-800. Highest last week was 1100. Usually I would give my trades 90 mins to maybe 11 am but lately 30 mins from open. That’s why ATR vs DTR indicator is so important for me to have when I trade. So this strategy as of rn is dangerous if you want to target 50% plus. For me it’s all about discipline now and I’m proud of myself for cashing quick instead of trying to milk it. Put this into perspective, last week there was a day spx gapped up at open from 5574 to 5591. I was in the trade and green 600. I waited for a quick pullback to 5587 for 1100. My break even was at 5594. I got out on that pullback. Had I stayed in the trade I would have been red from then on. If the trade exp I lose 3000. I had a 3 lot butterfly risking 15k to make max 5.7k. I was scared of being deep in the red on that gap up at open because it was 3 points away from my break even but was green so it’s all about risk management. Plus I shouldn’t have traded that day because Powell spoke that day.

[@user-ht7jt2gr5j]

Thank you for this awesome video. Can you please do the next research video of this with Iron Condor on the same 1DTE / 0 DTE? With the Iron Condor the added advantage is that you can collect the Max profit anywhere with your Short options. Of course, the Max loss increases too. Please do a Iron Condor vs Iron Butterfly for 0 DTE / 1 DTE.

[@allaccess4172]

Got to their site and check the market measures. They did that a Week or so ago and they always do condors for that. They don’t like putting on iron flies to start.

[@xyz9250]

When at the same strikes, any balanced butterfly has the same risk profile, call, put, or iron. When it’s ATM, iron butterfly should have the best bet/ask range.

[@constantins5549]

@@allaccess4172 An IC on SPX that could give you max $100/contract (92% probability) will have a margin of $1000-$2000. A Fly on SPX will have a risk of $1000 or less (if it is directional fly) and will last no more than 2 hrs, so save time.