STOP Calling It A Housing Crash (2025 Market Analysis)

[@Manausa]

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[@kevinmilligan9555]

Joe, at about the 8:51 mark you mention the home affordability crisis. With rates hovering around 7 percent, do you think we will see more assumable loan transactions in real estate? What about "subject to" sales?

[@Manausa]

Those are good questions @kevinmilligan9555, I do believe we'll see the "creative financing" cycle kick in 2025.

[@alicewade6215]

@@Manausa It will be like the late 1980s all over again.

[@CuriousObserver-0152]

"The gap between income growth and home prices continues to widen, creating a full-blown affordability crisis" That's so true, and when you add on insurance rates going crazy, it's even worse.

[@Manausa]

That's a great point @CuriousObserver-0152, I appreciate you taking the time to add to the discussion.

[@wildwind2227]

Why is overpricing worldwide? I cannot buy a condo in Puerto Vallarta Mexico. rent pays only half the mortgage

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your experience @wildwind2227, it greatly adds to the video and channel. I do not track international home sales, so I won't speculate.

[@jamesoleary1844]

The builders listened to the experts and built like crazy due to the structural deficit in housing inventory "bah , blah, blah". Now they have 500K completed homes they cannot get rid of. 8.5 months of inventory with another 200K of houses in the shadow inventory. The experts answer to this conundrum is of course to build even more houses. That doesn't sound like a good business plan. Anyone who has run a business knows that the answer to too much inventory isn't taking on more inventory.

[@Manausa]

Thanks for sharing your opinion @jamesoleary1844

[@kajohnson1261]

I'm not sure where you are getting your information (or your interpretation) but every analyst I follow says we are short homes. From as low as 3 million to 20 million. Maybe you are in a rare area with too many homes, but I've never seen such low supply in my 40 years in the business.

[@MaryJones-mm7qk]

@@kajohnson1261 I follow @KAErdmann who's email today says he would "estimate that we are nearly 5 million vacant units short of a level of vacancies that would be associated with sustainably neutral rent inflation" ... That's just the vacant unit shortage!

[@jamesoleary1844]

@I'm in Florida. Where are you? Every state had a increase in inventory last year. There is 8.5 months of inventory nationally in new houses. In 2000 there were 116 million homes in the US. Now there are over 146 million. A increase of 27%. At the same time our population has grown from 282 to 340 million or 21%. So, over the past twenty-five years home building has outpaced population. Sources for this info is FRED, Altos Research, & US Census. Florida and Texas (our 2nd & 3rd largest states) are both back to or higher than pre-pandemic inventory levels and sales are dead in both states. That kind of kills the "inventory is the problem" narrative IMHO.

[@Manausa]

@jamesoleary1844, I'm in North Florida. We've had this back and forth in the past, and I appreciate your passion for the subject. I'll stick with what I provided there. I haven't seen a qualified analyst who thinks we have enough homes, though the range in what we need is great (2.5M to 20M). Read Erdmann Housing Tracker. Look at household formations. It's all there, though maybe not in your local market.