Markets Weekly May 18, 2024

#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
China Supports Property Market
US Pulling Ahead in Productivity
Silver Surging
00:00 - Intro
1:28 - China Supports Property Market
5:56 - US Pulling Ahead in Productivity
14:07 - Silver Surging
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[@chrisp9466]

Joseph, my friend. As always, am very appreciative of your unique insights on very relevant & important macro topics. Thank you!

[@terrywatt4617]

Very insightful and I've starting to be a frequent viewer and follower. Looking forward to your next updates. Thank you.

[@jarronjackson6670]

My Saturday morning coffee right here!! Thanks Joseph!!

[@MyInfotainmentFix]

I lived in US for 8 years and now in Europe for about the same. Difference is pretty evident... Salaries are lower and individual taxes are too damn high. Pay high tax on income, 20% vat on spending, tax on savings and so on. Once you hit a certain tax level every extra dollar of income gives you maybe 40-45 cents. Career advancement is very slow specially if you are not part of the boys club. There's no incentive for working extra, however life is safe and more relaxed

[@James-il3tq]

Classic socialism - deincentivizes work which makes its society less productive. Motto of Socialism "If we can't be rich let's all be equally poor"

[@MrUseur]

Europe is ruled by politicians with a vast majority of them having a totally corrupt background. Majority of the leaders belong to jail. For example von- der- Leyen. By the way: the same is valid for Lagarde

[@Lights_Darks]

@@MrUseurinteresting. Didn’t know that.

[@HectorYague]

​​@@MrUseurEurope is no more or less ruled by politicians than the US or Canada, and politicians are no more or less corrupt. It is all about the median voter: Europeans do love regulation and governament intervention, as they prefer a more structured and cohesive albeit rigid society, and they vote accordingly. That is why there are less extremes in Europe: fewer people making over 250k/year but also fewer homeless, fewer startups and innovation but also more quality social services (health, education, transportation), etc. You know, different societies with different preferences.

[@tastypymp1287]

​@@MrUseur Pipe down wokey.

[@volkerengelbert6804]

In the United States, the average age of cars and light trucks has reached a record high of 12.5 years as of 2023​ (SPGlobal)​. Meanwhile, in Europe, the average age of cars is currently about 12 years, which is a significant increase from 7.4 years back in 2014​ (GfK)​. This trend reflects the growing tendency among drivers in these major economies to keep their vehicles longer, influenced by factors like improved vehicle quality and economic pressures that discourage frequent replacements. So, it goes to reason: European cars are not much older - although they have gotten older on a relative basis.

[@christianng2828]

Very insightful - great takes. Enjoy these every weekeend.

[@johnshaff]

Interesting observation about the perma rich in Europe and taxation. Almost like the perma rich reformed their historical aristocracy via the tax system, and the once land bound peasant class has become a tax bound peasant class, never able to truly rise.

[@kaiko982]

I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@Matt3Levine]

Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!

[@karami84]

The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….

[@Jesse2Livermore]

This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.

[@PatelYalla]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@Lisafinth]

It really helped trading with Francine Duguay analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..

[@Jeff__M]

Thanks Joseph! Enjoying my Saturday lunch listening! 🎙️ 👏 🎩

[@MrUseur]

Silver made me a little happy this week. Thank you, Joseph. Have a good weekend.

[@user-wy8ry2ck2w]

Interesting commentary about productivity. I haven’t lived in Europe for quite some time. I just moved to Mexico from the United States a little over a year ago and find living in Mexico far less stressful though there is not as much infrastructure. For example, the roads cannot can be quite poor and the electricity may go out. I live in a rural area so that is Part of the reason for that. What I also find shocking is that even when going to the big cities, there is nearly no homelessness compared to the United States, which is rather overwhelming. I do know that in Europe, everybody gets a very nice vacation and there is family far more family leave time when one is having a child. So there are so many factors to consider. Probably it is best to stick with whatever you have wherever you are and figure out ways to improve upon that structure that current structure instead of throwing everything away and trying to adopt an entirely new model. Keep up the enjoyable thought-provoking videos.

[@magnets1000]

another thing that you didn't mention is fuel/energy/input cost increases due to green policies that the US doesn't have but are all over europe. There are so many regulations and increased costs that it must be hampering GDP while destroying what is left of our manufacturing sectors.

[@speedracer609]

Just love this guy. Just your average Joe with more than average knowledge.

[@Lights_Darks]

Thanks, Joseph. Interesting set of topics. Appreciate the perspective.

[@ptupy]

Joseph, have you actually traveled through real America? I spent much of last year driving for work through both the north and the south, and it was depressing. Most places look like a third world country, with dilapidated communities, abandoned factories, half-empty strip malls, homeless people, etc. Massive government and consumer debt may have pulled up some headline figures over the last year, but it’s all smoke and mirrors. Over a million full-time jobs have been lost, and whatever has been created is in government or low-paying service sectors, often part time. And even the “cleanest dirty shirt” cliche is dubious if you look at some basic stats. Despite the war in Ukraine, the EU has an average debt-to-GDP ratio of about 80% (120% in the US), an average deficit-to-GDP ratio of around 3.5% (about 7% in the US), trade surpluses (deficits in the US), bank liquidity ratios of about 160% (120% in the US), GDP made up of only 50% consumption (70% in the US), and frugal credit card usage of about 30% (80% in the US, with record credit card debt and record low savings). Germany, the “sick man of Europe,” has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 63%, monthly trade surpluses of $20-30 billion, and household debt of about $2 trillion ($17 trillion in the US, with population about four times that of Germany). Everything in the US has been artificially inflated by unprecedented leverage, and things will get really bad when the music stops.

[@AllNighterHeider]

Richard Cantillon wrote about these effects in his "Essay of Economic Theory" over 300 years ago. We discuss these things on a channel Joseph has been on, Uneducated Economist. Come check out Simon and add to the discussion there too.

[@TrungNguyen-bh9ox]

Most people in these places got their own houses for retirement and US debt is in USD.

[@dougdevine7942]

An excellent analysis, you should be put on our plastic media apparatuses, on cnn, msnbc, fox everywhere. Joseph Wang smart yet catering of course to the top 10% of us Americans who own 77% or so of all stocks and bonds. I’ve worked with the working class for decades and around elites. The latter group turn a blind eye usually to the precariat classes.. no wonder this conman demagogue popular with so many and Biden and his cohorts out of touch although Biden seems to be passing policies that can help many citizens with an increasing industrial economic plan…. America has always been very laissez-faire, excessively-business - money making mindset as opposed to a sharing ethos which marks the Scandinavian societies…. Of course my analysis flawed by existing biases.

[@janeznovak7589]

Nonsense. Median wealth of Americans is $192,900 per capita. In Europe is like $ 80 000.

[@tastypymp1287]

​@@janeznovak7589I think the OP is talking about the distribution of that wealth.

[@krastyokirov4459]

Amazing video

[@andrewtay2001]

Thank you Joseph.

[@ivnprc]

Great stuff as per usual

[@petergozinya6122]

Thank you Joseph

[@AllNighterHeider]

Thanks as always JW See you at RCL real soon!!!

[@spacewalktraveller1]

Thanks Joseph, high tax does demotivate you from working hard. Low taxes motivates to earn more as you get to keep your money.

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Thanks, Joseph.

[@nvrselout3678]

Yeah we all need to work harder. Let's say it together!!

[@InvestingWithAdamK]

I hope you stayed long from your purchases a few weeks back. Thanks for the video.

[@krastyokirov4459]

Thank you

[@thomasfallows7060]

Thank you!!

[@FOREX-MARKET07]

thank you

[@JohnInvest17]

Recommend checking out the Gold/Silver chart. We broke key trendline support on the weekly chart. Last time this happened was in November 2022.

[@aleaiactaest8354]

Great segment. I wonder how much the value of the dollar plays into productivity story. Significantly lower dollar (20-30%) would change this picture somewhat?

[@k98killer]

Not necessarily relevant, but I wonder what the effects will be of the Fed's balance sheet impairment. I ran the calculations using the H.4.1. data, and the accumulated, realized losses of the Fed are 4x their capital and about 2% of their total assets. What does it mean when by definition $1 is just 98¢?

[@volkerengelbert6804]

Competition alone is by far not the only driver of productivity. In the US, we have some of the most concentrated (or may I say oligopolistic sectors/industries) that can be measured by deploying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index). However, in contrast to Europe, the US is MUCH more shareholder value focused. US CEOs have a much higher incentive to drive productivity growth (and therefore they own wealth) than in Europe.

[@sunjungsonne]

What about macro factors that give the US a tremendous advantage like having the worlds reserve currency, the ability to coerce Europe into military conflicts that harm their business model, strong arming it to buy their expensive energy, the ability to support it's own businesses worldwide and pursue others (like with Monsanto...a German company buys it and suddenly and miraculously the legal cases against it are won)?

[@2023Red]

Hi Joseph. I will look into the fed fannie may and freddie mac today to inquire into their scheme. And reply again after a couple of hours. It is news to me at this time. Also, about Silver, it amazed me about the spike. Same with Uranium this week. Later.. Robert P

[@MrUseur]

Joseph, you did not mention the significant Chinese and Indian imports/purchases of silver and the role of the Shanghai commodity exchange wrt the silver price. As I heard silver is traded at a considerable premium in Shanghai compared to the Comex silver price. I cannot comment on the LBMA price of an ounce of silver. Would be interesting to know though.

[@Fedguy12]

Didn't know that - thanks!

[@johnheap367]

Joseph do you not think high energy prices in Europe negatively affect all aspects of the economy majorly compared to USA

[@johnl.7754]

True in the short term but the divergence started over a decade ago.

[@johnheap367]

US shale oil gas was very significant in 2015 but I do accept Joseph's points.​@@johnl.7754

[@imjamming]

Most Europeans worked during the pandemic. In France for example, those who could work from home did and companies were required to give them the necessary equipment to do so including, chairs, desks, etc. The same thing in Switzerland and probably Germany. French essential workers went to work in person and their children had to attend schools in person. Essential workers can organize and demand of their employers a safe work environment. The French gov't gave essential workers individual bonuses for working during the pandemic. Just like in the US, the gov't also supported business owners whose businesses were required to close. However during the first of covid wave in Wuhan, China, the gov't closed many workplaces in an attempt to stamp out the virus and the Chinese gov't asked employers including foreign ones to continue paying their wages.

[@1vanillaface168]

it would be interesting to compare Europe/Canada tax expenditures and US tax + nontax like medical (be it personal costs or company costs). So I would say, the main driver to work in the US is not to be rich, but to afford a doctor. That is not the case in Europe.

[@buckrogers8672]

I have a feeling Joseph is a silverbug

[@James-il3tq]

He is bullish gold. Yet to hear his thoughts on crypto, namely Bitcoin.

[@blankjohnson6934]

Chinese govt may be renting those houses out like corporate home owners in US

[@tyc00n]

hello my friends

[@user-mf6rj8mh5t]

I've been exploring different trading strategies lately, but none seem to provide consistent results. Any suggestions on the most effective approach?

[@user-lw6wd6jm9n]

I can relate. Finding a reliable strategy can be challenging.

[@user-xt2fs4sh8g]

Have you considered diversifying your trading portfolio across various markets?

[@ServerError-ub8fx]

I've diversified, but I'm still experiencing losses

[@user-xt2fs4sh8g]

I faced similar issues …. DESIREE RUTH HOFFMAN is the guide you're looking for. Her expertise in financial planning can help navigate through the complexities.

[@user-mf6rj8mh5t]

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[@janeznovak7589]

Yep socialism in nutshell. West Europe is really in stagnation. East Europe growing cause they come from lower point, and you can open like self employed business paying max 20% taxes(Czech, Poland, Estonia, Romania etc). There is less enforced regulation in East Europe too. Problem with Western Europe is overregulation and provincial local mindset. Those countries don't produce new jobs, and taking new unskilled immigrants anyways, hoping they can continue with ponzhi scheme of public retirement (and broader welfare state). Here requirements for entry level jobs are ridiculous high, everything is so static & slow. Is hard to get a job and is hard to change job. Forget about changing career. Here in Austria my foreigners friends need sent like 400 CV (or 15 months ) to get another basic office job for 45k bruto (first bruto is 55k and neto is like 27k). We talking about candidates with like 5 year of experience in marketing, PM, sales. And with B2/C1 of German. Born locals are being paid (slightly)more and are preferable. For decades Western Europe was importing cheap qualified - hard working East Europeans, taking advantage of their communist reality and now third world takes fully advantage of welfare states in EU. Europeans love east Asians now, but not many are stupid enough to come here to work for peanuts while paying locals pensions.

[@davidhemsted5372]

Liz Truss tried to cut taxes!

[@langleybryan]

Re European living standards its a damn shame you cant eat regulation. Europeans would dine like kings every night!

[@BuonoBruttoCattivo77]

The American businessmen you noted came from upper-middle class families

[@Damian_M287]

Europe is by far a better place to live for the average citizen

[@MrTigerStarX]

Of the Ukraine?

[@James-il3tq]

Because it's even more socialist? Globalist woke policies (like all Western nations these days) of open borders, censorship, anti-energy, anti-religion, pro-Ukraine never ending war?

[@learndesignwithdev]

Europe is a nanny state, where the state has all the rights. It can even snatch away your kids if it thinks so. For Better understanding please watch the movie "Mrs Chatterjee vs Norway".

[@IB4U2Cme]

Interesting! I am living in Cebu Philippines for about 80K per month for two of us. 80K is almost $1,500. My rent is 8K. My WiFi is 1K. My water in 300 pesos. My electric is 2K (I do not have air conditioner), but I pay 2K to park my car, I pay 2 pesos per km to drive my motorcycle and 15 pesos per km to drive my car. I budget 6K per week for food and that includes drinking water for two of us and about a third of that 6K budget gets to extended family. Yesterday, I bought a whopper at Burger King for 206 pesos. No soda or fries. Soon, I will have the a13 visa. My wife passed away and I remarried here. Being 72, I do not do that much here. You do need six months income for an emergency, say medical self insurance. I think there is more freedom in the Philippines flying under the radar than living in the US with its automated government in place. The cost of freedom, and depending on what you want for freedom, is that cost to just comfortably live and that for me is roughly 45% of what the cost is in the US. The doctors scare me. The bathrooms are clean. Lots of needy people here. A lot of management systems do not work well. Amazon delivers some products to the Philippines. The import fees will get your attention. The legal system is a façade. I am from Arizona. The humidity was a problem when I first got here ten years ago. I like the weather more now. But no one has robbed me or hurt me.

[@sunjungsonne]

Agreed. As a German who has lived almost a decade in the United States, I much prefer Europe where many of the big earners are proudly supporting the poorer parts of society. It is really nice to know that your friends, family and neighbors cannot be wiped out for some medical bill or something like that. Everyone can go to the doctor or hospital, has food in the fridge, schools and universities are free. More people believe in their own potential in the US, take their ideas and try to make a go of it. That is missing in Germany for sure. Most people go for safety. That's very limiting.

[@krastyokirov4459]

King Joseph

[@vsanzjimenez]

Well, i guess european socialism can actually make one thing US corporativism can't: PLANES THAT CAN FLY WITHOUT CRASHING

[@user-nj4qv8tb1o]

Japan is worse. 50% tax after about 500K income. Salaries for the average person is low and growth is super slow and upside is minimal. Real wages keep declining because of inflation and weak declining because of crap currency. Despite this working culture is super workaholic and inefficient and irrational. At least life is stable but who knows for how long.

[@DeFi-Macrodosing]

I'm European, this was eye opening. $580k for the highest tax bracket? Amazing. I can't stand socialism - I can see a lot of it around here.

[@Fedguy12]

Yes - big difference. see www.irs.gov/filing/federal-income-tax-rates-and-brackets

[@DeFi-Macrodosing]

@@Fedguy12 thank you for the link. I can see that even capital gains are taxed at lower rates. Add to that long term fixed interest rates on mortgages... Interesting 🤔

[@ZiggleFingers]

You also have to add in the 15.4% that everyone pays on their income for social security and Medicare. It caps at 160k. But added to the regular income tax it closely approaches European taxation without the infrastructure, paid education, healthcare, vacation, family leave. But you fund freeing the shipping lanes and are expected to fund everyone else's wars.

[@TM-fr7gh]

Very good comparison between the USA and Europe in terms of work culture and structure. What's interesting though is that some European countries offer very low tax to freelancers and even to companies. The thing is that people are conditioned to just continue working 9-5. There's no culture of entrepreneurship, and I suspect that's a consequence of the dynamics you mentioned. It's easier for people to work 9-5 than try to get ahead, but most don't realize it's actually possible, arguably even more so than in the USA.

[@footballstoreuk4557]

Ultra bullish update

[@timm7128]

You mention the system of Europe not working, yet then you say BYD is beating them...from a much more socialist country, so that is confusing what you are getting at.

[@Fedguy12]

China isn't socialist. It actually has a very weak social safety net.

[@tomvasilj2697]

You guys still think you’re living standards are better than in Europe…what a joke😂

[@arielwalker4796]

I am really disappointed in this week’s chosen topics. From generation to generation the standard of living has decreased. How far or much any given opportunity will provide in the future.

[@ConsciousOne369]

He is a FED bro

[@vitordeholandajo156]

Europe is dying.

[@13939014402]

Some part of this video is veering towards Republican talking point. I agree the US system is good for the talented and corporations, but Joseph failed to mention how different systems are treating the unfortunates . One example is life expectancy: US is 76 years and Europe Union is 83 years.

[@ZiggleFingers]

You have to compare by ethnicity. European American life expectancy is 83.1y in 2021

[@13939014402]

@@ZiggleFingers Sorry, but we can't pick and choose the data to fit our narratives.(none-white population are still American, and not all people in Europe Union are white)