Markets Weekly May 18, 2024

  Рет қаралды 10,466

Joseph Wang

Joseph Wang

Күн бұрын

#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
China Supports Property Market
US Pulling Ahead in Productivity
Silver Surging
00:00 - Intro
1:28 - China Supports Property Market
5:56 - US Pulling Ahead in Productivity
14:07 - Silver Surging
For my latest thoughts:
www.fedguy.com
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www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
www.amazon.com/Central-Bankin...

Пікірлер: 112
@chrisp9466
@chrisp9466 26 күн бұрын
Joseph, my friend. As always, am very appreciative of your unique insights on very relevant & important macro topics. Thank you!
@terrywatt4617
@terrywatt4617 27 күн бұрын
Very insightful and I've starting to be a frequent viewer and follower. Looking forward to your next updates. Thank you.
@jarronjackson6670
@jarronjackson6670 28 күн бұрын
My Saturday morning coffee right here!! Thanks Joseph!!
@MyInfotainmentFix
@MyInfotainmentFix 28 күн бұрын
I lived in US for 8 years and now in Europe for about the same. Difference is pretty evident... Salaries are lower and individual taxes are too damn high. Pay high tax on income, 20% vat on spending, tax on savings and so on. Once you hit a certain tax level every extra dollar of income gives you maybe 40-45 cents. Career advancement is very slow specially if you are not part of the boys club. There's no incentive for working extra, however life is safe and more relaxed
@James-il3tq
@James-il3tq 28 күн бұрын
Classic socialism - deincentivizes work which makes its society less productive. Motto of Socialism "If we can't be rich let's all be equally poor"
@MrUseur
@MrUseur 28 күн бұрын
Europe is ruled by politicians with a vast majority of them having a totally corrupt background. Majority of the leaders belong to jail. For example von- der- Leyen. By the way: the same is valid for Lagarde
@Lights_Darks
@Lights_Darks 28 күн бұрын
@@MrUseurinteresting. Didn’t know that.
@HectorYague
@HectorYague 28 күн бұрын
​​@@MrUseurEurope is no more or less ruled by politicians than the US or Canada, and politicians are no more or less corrupt. It is all about the median voter: Europeans do love regulation and governament intervention, as they prefer a more structured and cohesive albeit rigid society, and they vote accordingly. That is why there are less extremes in Europe: fewer people making over 250k/year but also fewer homeless, fewer startups and innovation but also more quality social services (health, education, transportation), etc. You know, different societies with different preferences.
@tastypymp1287
@tastypymp1287 27 күн бұрын
​@@MrUseur Pipe down wokey.
@volkerengelbert6804
@volkerengelbert6804 28 күн бұрын
In the United States, the average age of cars and light trucks has reached a record high of 12.5 years as of 2023​ (SPGlobal)​. Meanwhile, in Europe, the average age of cars is currently about 12 years, which is a significant increase from 7.4 years back in 2014​ (GfK)​. This trend reflects the growing tendency among drivers in these major economies to keep their vehicles longer, influenced by factors like improved vehicle quality and economic pressures that discourage frequent replacements. So, it goes to reason: European cars are not much older - although they have gotten older on a relative basis.
@christianng2828
@christianng2828 27 күн бұрын
Very insightful - great takes. Enjoy these every weekeend.
@johnshaff
@johnshaff 28 күн бұрын
Interesting observation about the perma rich in Europe and taxation. Almost like the perma rich reformed their historical aristocracy via the tax system, and the once land bound peasant class has become a tax bound peasant class, never able to truly rise.
@kaiko982
@kaiko982 25 күн бұрын
I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
@Matt3Levine
@Matt3Levine 25 күн бұрын
Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!
@karami84
@karami84 25 күн бұрын
The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….
@Jesse2Livermore
@Jesse2Livermore 25 күн бұрын
This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.
@PatelYalla
@PatelYalla 25 күн бұрын
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
@Lisafinth
@Lisafinth 25 күн бұрын
It really helped trading with Francine Duguay analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..
@Jeff__M
@Jeff__M 28 күн бұрын
Thanks Joseph! Enjoying my Saturday lunch listening! 🎙️ 👏 🎩
@MrUseur
@MrUseur 28 күн бұрын
Silver made me a little happy this week. Thank you, Joseph. Have a good weekend.
@user-wy8ry2ck2w
@user-wy8ry2ck2w 28 күн бұрын
Interesting commentary about productivity. I haven’t lived in Europe for quite some time. I just moved to Mexico from the United States a little over a year ago and find living in Mexico far less stressful though there is not as much infrastructure. For example, the roads cannot can be quite poor and the electricity may go out. I live in a rural area so that is Part of the reason for that. What I also find shocking is that even when going to the big cities, there is nearly no homelessness compared to the United States, which is rather overwhelming. I do know that in Europe, everybody gets a very nice vacation and there is family far more family leave time when one is having a child. So there are so many factors to consider. Probably it is best to stick with whatever you have wherever you are and figure out ways to improve upon that structure that current structure instead of throwing everything away and trying to adopt an entirely new model. Keep up the enjoyable thought-provoking videos.
@magnets1000
@magnets1000 28 күн бұрын
another thing that you didn't mention is fuel/energy/input cost increases due to green policies that the US doesn't have but are all over europe. There are so many regulations and increased costs that it must be hampering GDP while destroying what is left of our manufacturing sectors.
@speedracer609
@speedracer609 28 күн бұрын
Just love this guy. Just your average Joe with more than average knowledge.
@Lights_Darks
@Lights_Darks 28 күн бұрын
Thanks, Joseph. Interesting set of topics. Appreciate the perspective.
@ptupy
@ptupy 28 күн бұрын
Joseph, have you actually traveled through real America? I spent much of last year driving for work through both the north and the south, and it was depressing. Most places look like a third world country, with dilapidated communities, abandoned factories, half-empty strip malls, homeless people, etc. Massive government and consumer debt may have pulled up some headline figures over the last year, but it’s all smoke and mirrors. Over a million full-time jobs have been lost, and whatever has been created is in government or low-paying service sectors, often part time. And even the “cleanest dirty shirt” cliche is dubious if you look at some basic stats. Despite the war in Ukraine, the EU has an average debt-to-GDP ratio of about 80% (120% in the US), an average deficit-to-GDP ratio of around 3.5% (about 7% in the US), trade surpluses (deficits in the US), bank liquidity ratios of about 160% (120% in the US), GDP made up of only 50% consumption (70% in the US), and frugal credit card usage of about 30% (80% in the US, with record credit card debt and record low savings). Germany, the “sick man of Europe,” has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 63%, monthly trade surpluses of $20-30 billion, and household debt of about $2 trillion ($17 trillion in the US, with population about four times that of Germany). Everything in the US has been artificially inflated by unprecedented leverage, and things will get really bad when the music stops.
@AllNighterHeider
@AllNighterHeider 28 күн бұрын
Richard Cantillon wrote about these effects in his "Essay of Economic Theory" over 300 years ago. We discuss these things on a channel Joseph has been on, Uneducated Economist. Come check out Simon and add to the discussion there too.
@TrungNguyen-bh9ox
@TrungNguyen-bh9ox 28 күн бұрын
Most people in these places got their own houses for retirement and US debt is in USD.
@dougdevine7942
@dougdevine7942 27 күн бұрын
An excellent analysis, you should be put on our plastic media apparatuses, on cnn, msnbc, fox everywhere. Joseph Wang smart yet catering of course to the top 10% of us Americans who own 77% or so of all stocks and bonds. I’ve worked with the working class for decades and around elites. The latter group turn a blind eye usually to the precariat classes.. no wonder this conman demagogue popular with so many and Biden and his cohorts out of touch although Biden seems to be passing policies that can help many citizens with an increasing industrial economic plan…. America has always been very laissez-faire, excessively-business - money making mindset as opposed to a sharing ethos which marks the Scandinavian societies…. Of course my analysis flawed by existing biases.
@janeznovak7589
@janeznovak7589 27 күн бұрын
Nonsense. Median wealth of Americans is $192,900 per capita. In Europe is like $ 80 000.
@tastypymp1287
@tastypymp1287 27 күн бұрын
​@@janeznovak7589I think the OP is talking about the distribution of that wealth.
@krastyokirov4459
@krastyokirov4459 28 күн бұрын
Amazing video
@andrewtay2001
@andrewtay2001 27 күн бұрын
Thank you Joseph.
@ivnprc
@ivnprc 28 күн бұрын
Great stuff as per usual
@petergozinya6122
@petergozinya6122 28 күн бұрын
Thank you Joseph
@AllNighterHeider
@AllNighterHeider 28 күн бұрын
Thanks as always JW See you at RCL real soon!!!
@spacewalktraveller1
@spacewalktraveller1 25 күн бұрын
Thanks Joseph, high tax does demotivate you from working hard. Low taxes motivates to earn more as you get to keep your money.
@MichaelHarrington17
@MichaelHarrington17 28 күн бұрын
Thanks, Joseph.
@nvrselout3678
@nvrselout3678 27 күн бұрын
Yeah we all need to work harder. Let's say it together!!
@InvestingWithAdamK
@InvestingWithAdamK 28 күн бұрын
I hope you stayed long from your purchases a few weeks back. Thanks for the video.
@krastyokirov4459
@krastyokirov4459 28 күн бұрын
Thank you
@thomasfallows7060
@thomasfallows7060 26 күн бұрын
Thank you!!
@FOREX-MARKET07
@FOREX-MARKET07 28 күн бұрын
thank you
@JohnInvest17
@JohnInvest17 27 күн бұрын
Recommend checking out the Gold/Silver chart. We broke key trendline support on the weekly chart. Last time this happened was in November 2022.
@aleaiactaest8354
@aleaiactaest8354 22 күн бұрын
Great segment. I wonder how much the value of the dollar plays into productivity story. Significantly lower dollar (20-30%) would change this picture somewhat?
@k98killer
@k98killer 28 күн бұрын
Not necessarily relevant, but I wonder what the effects will be of the Fed's balance sheet impairment. I ran the calculations using the H.4.1. data, and the accumulated, realized losses of the Fed are 4x their capital and about 2% of their total assets. What does it mean when by definition $1 is just 98¢?
@volkerengelbert6804
@volkerengelbert6804 28 күн бұрын
Competition alone is by far not the only driver of productivity. In the US, we have some of the most concentrated (or may I say oligopolistic sectors/industries) that can be measured by deploying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index). However, in contrast to Europe, the US is MUCH more shareholder value focused. US CEOs have a much higher incentive to drive productivity growth (and therefore they own wealth) than in Europe.
@sunjungsonne
@sunjungsonne 27 күн бұрын
What about macro factors that give the US a tremendous advantage like having the worlds reserve currency, the ability to coerce Europe into military conflicts that harm their business model, strong arming it to buy their expensive energy, the ability to support it's own businesses worldwide and pursue others (like with Monsanto...a German company buys it and suddenly and miraculously the legal cases against it are won)?
@2023Red
@2023Red 28 күн бұрын
Hi Joseph. I will look into the fed fannie may and freddie mac today to inquire into their scheme. And reply again after a couple of hours. It is news to me at this time. Also, about Silver, it amazed me about the spike. Same with Uranium this week. Later.. Robert P
@MrUseur
@MrUseur 28 күн бұрын
Joseph, you did not mention the significant Chinese and Indian imports/purchases of silver and the role of the Shanghai commodity exchange wrt the silver price. As I heard silver is traded at a considerable premium in Shanghai compared to the Comex silver price. I cannot comment on the LBMA price of an ounce of silver. Would be interesting to know though.
@Fedguy12
@Fedguy12 28 күн бұрын
Didn't know that - thanks!
@johnheap367
@johnheap367 27 күн бұрын
Joseph do you not think high energy prices in Europe negatively affect all aspects of the economy majorly compared to USA
@johnl.7754
@johnl.7754 27 күн бұрын
True in the short term but the divergence started over a decade ago.
@johnheap367
@johnheap367 27 күн бұрын
US shale oil gas was very significant in 2015 but I do accept Joseph's points.​@@johnl.7754
@imjamming
@imjamming 27 күн бұрын
Most Europeans worked during the pandemic. In France for example, those who could work from home did and companies were required to give them the necessary equipment to do so including, chairs, desks, etc. The same thing in Switzerland and probably Germany. French essential workers went to work in person and their children had to attend schools in person. Essential workers can organize and demand of their employers a safe work environment. The French gov't gave essential workers individual bonuses for working during the pandemic. Just like in the US, the gov't also supported business owners whose businesses were required to close. However during the first of covid wave in Wuhan, China, the gov't closed many workplaces in an attempt to stamp out the virus and the Chinese gov't asked employers including foreign ones to continue paying their wages.
@1vanillaface168
@1vanillaface168 26 күн бұрын
it would be interesting to compare Europe/Canada tax expenditures and US tax + nontax like medical (be it personal costs or company costs). So I would say, the main driver to work in the US is not to be rich, but to afford a doctor. That is not the case in Europe.
@buckrogers8672
@buckrogers8672 28 күн бұрын
I have a feeling Joseph is a silverbug
@James-il3tq
@James-il3tq 28 күн бұрын
He is bullish gold. Yet to hear his thoughts on crypto, namely Bitcoin.
@blankjohnson6934
@blankjohnson6934 28 күн бұрын
Chinese govt may be renting those houses out like corporate home owners in US
@tyc00n
@tyc00n 28 күн бұрын
hello my friends
@user-mf6rj8mh5t
@user-mf6rj8mh5t 27 күн бұрын
I've been exploring different trading strategies lately, but none seem to provide consistent results. Any suggestions on the most effective approach?
@user-lw6wd6jm9n
@user-lw6wd6jm9n 27 күн бұрын
I can relate. Finding a reliable strategy can be challenging.
@user-xt2fs4sh8g
@user-xt2fs4sh8g 27 күн бұрын
Have you considered diversifying your trading portfolio across various markets?
@ServerError-ub8fx
@ServerError-ub8fx 27 күн бұрын
I've diversified, but I'm still experiencing losses
@user-xt2fs4sh8g
@user-xt2fs4sh8g 27 күн бұрын
I faced similar issues …. DESIREE RUTH HOFFMAN is the guide you're looking for. Her expertise in financial planning can help navigate through the complexities.
@user-mf6rj8mh5t
@user-mf6rj8mh5t 27 күн бұрын
How did DESIREE RUTH HOFFMAN help you?
@janeznovak7589
@janeznovak7589 27 күн бұрын
Yep socialism in nutshell. West Europe is really in stagnation. East Europe growing cause they come from lower point, and you can open like self employed business paying max 20% taxes(Czech, Poland, Estonia, Romania etc). There is less enforced regulation in East Europe too. Problem with Western Europe is overregulation and provincial local mindset. Those countries don't produce new jobs, and taking new unskilled immigrants anyways, hoping they can continue with ponzhi scheme of public retirement (and broader welfare state). Here requirements for entry level jobs are ridiculous high, everything is so static & slow. Is hard to get a job and is hard to change job. Forget about changing career. Here in Austria my foreigners friends need sent like 400 CV (or 15 months ) to get another basic office job for 45k bruto (first bruto is 55k and neto is like 27k). We talking about candidates with like 5 year of experience in marketing, PM, sales. And with B2/C1 of German. Born locals are being paid (slightly)more and are preferable. For decades Western Europe was importing cheap qualified - hard working East Europeans, taking advantage of their communist reality and now third world takes fully advantage of welfare states in EU. Europeans love east Asians now, but not many are stupid enough to come here to work for peanuts while paying locals pensions.
@davidhemsted5372
@davidhemsted5372 27 күн бұрын
Liz Truss tried to cut taxes!
@langleybryan
@langleybryan 28 күн бұрын
Re European living standards its a damn shame you cant eat regulation. Europeans would dine like kings every night!
@BuonoBruttoCattivo77
@BuonoBruttoCattivo77 28 күн бұрын
The American businessmen you noted came from upper-middle class families
@Damian_M287
@Damian_M287 28 күн бұрын
Europe is by far a better place to live for the average citizen
@MrTigerStarX
@MrTigerStarX 28 күн бұрын
Of the Ukraine?
@James-il3tq
@James-il3tq 28 күн бұрын
Because it's even more socialist? Globalist woke policies (like all Western nations these days) of open borders, censorship, anti-energy, anti-religion, pro-Ukraine never ending war?
@learndesignwithdev
@learndesignwithdev 28 күн бұрын
Europe is a nanny state, where the state has all the rights. It can even snatch away your kids if it thinks so. For Better understanding please watch the movie "Mrs Chatterjee vs Norway".
@IB4U2Cme
@IB4U2Cme 28 күн бұрын
Interesting! I am living in Cebu Philippines for about 80K per month for two of us. 80K is almost $1,500. My rent is 8K. My WiFi is 1K. My water in 300 pesos. My electric is 2K (I do not have air conditioner), but I pay 2K to park my car, I pay 2 pesos per km to drive my motorcycle and 15 pesos per km to drive my car. I budget 6K per week for food and that includes drinking water for two of us and about a third of that 6K budget gets to extended family. Yesterday, I bought a whopper at Burger King for 206 pesos. No soda or fries. Soon, I will have the a13 visa. My wife passed away and I remarried here. Being 72, I do not do that much here. You do need six months income for an emergency, say medical self insurance. I think there is more freedom in the Philippines flying under the radar than living in the US with its automated government in place. The cost of freedom, and depending on what you want for freedom, is that cost to just comfortably live and that for me is roughly 45% of what the cost is in the US. The doctors scare me. The bathrooms are clean. Lots of needy people here. A lot of management systems do not work well. Amazon delivers some products to the Philippines. The import fees will get your attention. The legal system is a façade. I am from Arizona. The humidity was a problem when I first got here ten years ago. I like the weather more now. But no one has robbed me or hurt me.
@sunjungsonne
@sunjungsonne 27 күн бұрын
Agreed. As a German who has lived almost a decade in the United States, I much prefer Europe where many of the big earners are proudly supporting the poorer parts of society. It is really nice to know that your friends, family and neighbors cannot be wiped out for some medical bill or something like that. Everyone can go to the doctor or hospital, has food in the fridge, schools and universities are free. More people believe in their own potential in the US, take their ideas and try to make a go of it. That is missing in Germany for sure. Most people go for safety. That's very limiting.
@krastyokirov4459
@krastyokirov4459 28 күн бұрын
King Joseph
@vsanzjimenez
@vsanzjimenez 27 күн бұрын
Well, i guess european socialism can actually make one thing US corporativism can't: PLANES THAT CAN FLY WITHOUT CRASHING
@user-nj4qv8tb1o
@user-nj4qv8tb1o 27 күн бұрын
Japan is worse. 50% tax after about 500K income. Salaries for the average person is low and growth is super slow and upside is minimal. Real wages keep declining because of inflation and weak declining because of crap currency. Despite this working culture is super workaholic and inefficient and irrational. At least life is stable but who knows for how long.
@DeFi-Macrodosing
@DeFi-Macrodosing 27 күн бұрын
I'm European, this was eye opening. $580k for the highest tax bracket? Amazing. I can't stand socialism - I can see a lot of it around here.
@Fedguy12
@Fedguy12 27 күн бұрын
Yes - big difference. see www.irs.gov/filing/federal-income-tax-rates-and-brackets
@DeFi-Macrodosing
@DeFi-Macrodosing 27 күн бұрын
@@Fedguy12 thank you for the link. I can see that even capital gains are taxed at lower rates. Add to that long term fixed interest rates on mortgages... Interesting 🤔
@ZiggleFingers
@ZiggleFingers 26 күн бұрын
You also have to add in the 15.4% that everyone pays on their income for social security and Medicare. It caps at 160k. But added to the regular income tax it closely approaches European taxation without the infrastructure, paid education, healthcare, vacation, family leave. But you fund freeing the shipping lanes and are expected to fund everyone else's wars.
@TM-fr7gh
@TM-fr7gh 27 күн бұрын
Very good comparison between the USA and Europe in terms of work culture and structure. What's interesting though is that some European countries offer very low tax to freelancers and even to companies. The thing is that people are conditioned to just continue working 9-5. There's no culture of entrepreneurship, and I suspect that's a consequence of the dynamics you mentioned. It's easier for people to work 9-5 than try to get ahead, but most don't realize it's actually possible, arguably even more so than in the USA.
@footballstoreuk4557
@footballstoreuk4557 28 күн бұрын
Ultra bullish update
@timm7128
@timm7128 26 күн бұрын
You mention the system of Europe not working, yet then you say BYD is beating them...from a much more socialist country, so that is confusing what you are getting at.
@Fedguy12
@Fedguy12 26 күн бұрын
China isn't socialist. It actually has a very weak social safety net.
@tomvasilj2697
@tomvasilj2697 27 күн бұрын
You guys still think you’re living standards are better than in Europe…what a joke😂
@arielwalker4796
@arielwalker4796 28 күн бұрын
I am really disappointed in this week’s chosen topics. From generation to generation the standard of living has decreased. How far or much any given opportunity will provide in the future.
@ConsciousOne369
@ConsciousOne369 28 күн бұрын
He is a FED bro
@vitordeholandajo156
@vitordeholandajo156 28 күн бұрын
Europe is dying.
@13939014402
@13939014402 27 күн бұрын
Some part of this video is veering towards Republican talking point. I agree the US system is good for the talented and corporations, but Joseph failed to mention how different systems are treating the unfortunates . One example is life expectancy: US is 76 years and Europe Union is 83 years.
@ZiggleFingers
@ZiggleFingers 26 күн бұрын
You have to compare by ethnicity. European American life expectancy is 83.1y in 2021
@13939014402
@13939014402 26 күн бұрын
@@ZiggleFingers Sorry, but we can't pick and choose the data to fit our narratives.(none-white population are still American, and not all people in Europe Union are white)
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