Market Outlook for Feb 2, 2025 - It's War!!

[@JR293s]

Mark - I absolutely love your political insights and your humour! --- Fantastic work! -- Don't listen to the people who complain about it..

[@BCFC954]

Politics are cults. We can blame the MSM & feedback loops the algorithms provide. People with half a brain can see things objectively. I like some Trump policies, but hate that his populous movement has emphasized tariffs, because it was working with voters. I like how Trump used Tariffs 1st Term, but now it seems like he doesn't have a logical plan/endgame for their implementation. I think he wants it to be a revenue generator instead of a negotiation tool which is the opposite of his first term. Attack dumping but other than that, free trade for all.

[@rahul27668]

I was waiting for a sane opinion on this matter.thanks for taking time

[@publius7928]

What the US is doing to Canada is ludicrous. If there is any country in the world which should be our ally, it is Canada. You’d think even his supporters would be uncomfortable with this.

[@demetribell3128]

Suffer canuck

[@andrew1851]

Right, I saw a poll saying his supporters don't even support this. Hope Mark is right that it reverses Tuesday.

[@DemosApollo]

If you see canadian polls, trump may have done the impossible, its not sure yet but there is a big chance the liberal party out of nowhere has a chance to stay in power.

[@shqipe333]

The Canadians were booing the US national anthem in Ottawa yesterday! And these are the nicest people! It’s crazy what’s going on right now

[@danielferdel]

Trump wants to see who are their true allies, at first in a nearby regional level

[@TheFreeRange]

Please ignore the negative comments here Mark. THere are plenty of us who understand the financial/political/economic landscape based on these vids. Yes, we dont need to agree with evth you say, but at least you help us understand the world and let us form our own views. We really appreciate this!

[@shqipe333]

I thought Trudeau’s response was level headed. I know your dislike for him (warranted) but that was great to hear even as an American! Our friendship has strengthened us for the better.

[@BCFC954]

Trudeau's response will cripple Canada. They need to negotiate in good faith. Even if Trump is an idiot on the matter.

[@Shivastorm88]

It is 10% in addition to existing tariffs, there were already tariffs on Chinese goods (although not sure if it were blanket tariffs)

[@jonathon3073]

Just a heads up. That 10% addition has no start date yet. It seems like the 10% addition on Canada is just to make the Can/Mex tarrifs not look so bad. Not sure that 10% even gets applied to China.

[@vjkir5222]

I'm not an expert, but my limited reading so far: US weighted average tariff rate for Chinese imports is around ~10%. Some estimates are as high as 12%. I assume it could be higher if they axe or reduce the $800 'de minimus' exemption. The existing tariffs are targeted, and some of them are quite high. An additional 10% tariff would then result in ~ 20% average tariff (depends on the resulting composition of imports). This is all up in the air, so if it is implemented, maybe the 10% won't end up being 'additional' - it could just be applied to goods not already under tariff (which is about 40% of them). Who knows.

[@BCFC954]

@@jonathon3073 Premarket seems to like AAPL. China tariffs less than expected. AAPL is also known to be a safety play when the market gets fearful

[@THIPLEX]

Brilliant session Mark! Much appreciated you sharing your thoughts on the markets and the connection to politics!

[@bigbabyjack]

Question about duration outlook. If tariffs are here to stay for a while. rGDP growth takes a hit, lowering employment, demand (and inflation), leading to the Fed to cut, bringing down short term rates. I would expect this to ripple into duration as well, so I would be long TLT in this scenario in the medium term. Do you think duration will take a hit just in the short term or also the long term? I assume just in the short term since you are long TLT.

[@GGECKO11]

Hey Mark - you do a great job - I personally think you're an elite mind in this industry and you're the only person I go out of my way to listen to. Quick question, could you give us your thoughts on the tariff impact when accounting for changes in currency? The firm I work for put out a piece on that where the currency up/down washes out the majority of the tariff impact (from past Trump admin) - but obviously not all - thanks.

[@greenappleRust]

Mark, I have been loving your videos since I found you and have retained more information from your channel than any others. I am at an important point in my life where I will be going from highschool to college and would like your recommendations from your life experiences on paths you wish you would have taken, and what you would recommend for someone who wants to have a career In the financial markets.

[@aaronstein8585]

Hold on to your butts! Shout out to the homies that went beta neutral before the weekend 🫡

[@samtertzakian5095]

Great commentary. Thoughtful and packed with informed opinion. Thank you.

[@har_d_rocks9987]

Hi Mark! Tariffs from the 1860s to 1910s were highly successful, reducing dependence on the British Empire and turning the U.S. into a manufacturing hub. Why wouldn’t bringing back tariffs today achieve the same success in rebuilding manufacturing and making the U.S. more self-sufficient? Can you explain in detail?

[@pleepler]

@@har_d_rocks9987 If you want to manufacture just for the sake of manufacturing, then why not, protectionism creates that space. But it stifles any innovation, you don't have to out-compete anyone as long as your product price remains under the price of imports. And trust me, even domestic competition won't try to innovate, there is no incentive. All you'll get is customers getting screwed over until they get fed up and buy the imported items anyway If you want examples how tariffs absolutely tanked, look at the automotive industry. Domestic brands, both cars and bikes, are miserable. Okay, that's exaggerated a bit, but even though previous administrations tried to curb the inflow of imported cars and bikes, the inability or rather unwillingness to innovate from domestic producers led to their downfall. And rather than locking tf in and trying to turn the tide in the lab, they were busy either using technology from competitors or lobbying and crying to the Congress It's so ironic how Ford and others have plants in Mexico while Toyota, Mercedes, BMW and others have plants in the US. Even with those labor costs they make better products than the domestic brands can. By far

[@ranggascat5696]

This is the best ‘online classes’ (its definitely feels like a classes to me) in the KZbin! Please watch this fellow retail investors💯

[@Therapy44me]

You’ve spoken before about capital to money market inversions and how that can be a leading indicator of a recession. Is this current curve of a negative money market slope and a positive capital market slope an indicator of anything?

[@robaustin3013]

Dr.Meldrum you have spoken in past podcasts that technology is deflationary. Could there be some method to the Trump madness:’ 1. AI implementations made reduce the need for labor. 2. Deportations will decrease the labour pool 3. AI will result in better allocation of resources in The US possibly reducing the need for resources imported from Canada and Mexico. 4. AI may lead to more on shoring of manufacturing in the US reducing imports from Canada and Mexico. In the short term during the economic realignment there will be inflation but I. The longer term the American economy may become more balanced as long as the debt burden is addressed. Canada in my opinion needs to get its economy in order and simply retaliating is a no win situation, the US economy is just too large to feel any long term pain from Canada retaliating with tariffs. Maybe what Trump is doing will force Canadians to finally elect people with some common enough to put forth policies that will encourage growth and reduce the burden of taxes many successful people find debilitating?

[@imfromtoronto]

What do you think of Danielle Smith's (Alberta Premier) stance against the federal government and other provinces? From the January 15 news: "Smith has cautioned Ottawa against blocking energy exports to the U.S. in response to tariffs, calling it an 'empty threat' that would spark a national unity crisis." Was she implying a threat to leave Canada with her "national unity crisis" comment?

[@zoulzopan]

Why wouldn't she want to block energy exports or atleast retaliate on that front? Did she give a reason?

[@arishah2884]

Hi, Dr.Mark, Why would the initial reaction on Monday from exposure to duration not do well? The market will anticipate margin compression across companies, which means slower growth, which means more rate cuts back int the picture, which means lower yields across the spectrum! I don't see investors running away high quality cyclical IG bonds. Could you kindly clarify why rates would rise initially?

[@hasenkopfe]

Interested in an answer to this as well. Margin compression assumes price stays constant. If prices rise, consumers feel inflation which would signal higher rates for longer as bond buyers would demand higher rates for higher inflation which would increase a given company’s WACC and lead to lower valuations. That’s my speculation.

[@RichardTN]

I'm pretty sure a tariff war is going to spark concerns about inflation. And since the duration or amount of these tariffs is uncertain, there is no way the Fed can plan to cut rates when they have no clue what's going on and the fear is all toward the inflation side. As the Fed has said, it's very easy for them to cut rates fast if they are behind, but it's very hard for them to catch up if inflation gets ahead of them.

[@Kanji-s7o]

You are right, he is wrong.

[@abdecerrone6609]

Loves this last market outlook , it gets closer to the economic reality and that's why i like about your market outlook. Is there any chance that Mexico enters BRICS as a retaliation against the U.S ? Is there a risk to see more countries joining BRICS to avoid Trump's tariff and what could be the impact on the U.S dollar as a reserve currency ?

[@Jeff_Skilling]

Fiscal policy of the high debt/ GDP countries will be a defining macro theme in coming decades in my opinion. Treasury interest payments are about to exceed social security as a percentage of the US budget. As a result, the duration trade seems like a good trade but potentially bad long term investment. I too am long TLT but worry that central banks will have to run high inflation to get out of their debt. On the other side, if this occurs there’s potential opportunity with central bank divergence using swaps. Would love to hear your take on this.

[@Maverick-s5l]

1)in the applied level there is my posititons section should i watch from the new one or do i have to watch the previous ones too? IS THERE ANY BENEFIT TO IT? 2) A silly question but i am curious,you once said you never had to do a job as you started your own venture,but there is a section in applied level on how institutions trade , how did you know, like YOU TALKED WITH SOMEONE ? 3) you said you know nothing about this ai and stuff so in future if you want to do a sector analysis how will you go about it?DO YOU HAVE A SET PLAN like i will do THIS then THAT?

[@뭔갈하는고양이]

Mark I have insane respect for you. I was getting really sick of so called "market experts" who claim what Trump is doing is in best interest of people.

[@FinanceFanatic-p8b]

1) i have taken applied level ,i want to ask with recent ai and agi (which will have 300-400 iq) development talks ,will they take all finance jobs like analysts etc in the whole financial sector as they will be better than us? 2)i am feeling really low as ,even if i study all these sector analysis and stuff in applied level or do cfa, these things could just be done by them,so is it even worth it to spend any time on it?

[@aarshtrivedi5305]

What's the evidence they will have 300-400 iq? That level of IQ has no practical meaning for humans. If they achieve that level of intelligence, then we have bigger things to worry about than our finance jobs being taken away from us by AI. I wouldn't worry too much. CFA preps you for higher level thinking and how to think, which builds on your real world experience. Wouldn't worry about "AI" replacing that.

[@carlabosse]

MM recommended this for that issue: kzbin.info/www/bejne/rYiscpKXer-dmJosi=mfBmkiN_dOpvR7kN AI will replace lowperformers/lowearners - it will only augment and improve highperformer/highearners... Which do you want to be?

[@branlob]

@@carlabosse that's cope. it will soon be smarter than anyone. there won't be any performer that can outperform ai, augmented or not

[@juanpbonfrisco]

Hi Mark, any thoughts on AGNC’s move this week? Seems like it rallied sharply despite sluggish results, following the rally on NLY. But NLY results didn’t seem outstanding either, am I missing something?

[@deepblue007]

I have AGNC and I think anything between 7 and 9 is a buy for long term

[@Liquid_market]

Your videos are brilliant Mark. Thanks for the time you put into them.

[@shambler64]

Dr. Meldrum, I don't think there's a particularly easy way to separate Trump from the markets, and in this regard you're providing the full spectrum of what inputs and outputs control the market machine. Also, this is why I look forward to the Discord so that we may further our education, collaboration, and navigation of the market together - both in the financial and psychological sense. You already do an amazing job of giving us that perspective, and I think some modest guardrails (such that you're doing) will help us not derail into some overt focus on "the political" like some of the comments have attempted to do.

[@BCFC954]

My theory: Trump will back off if the markets really go south. He sees it as a barometer of his success. Maybe he doesn't care anymore, since he made so much money in his shit coin. Good news is crypto is tanking from the tariff announcement and his lockup begins to expire ~3 months from now

[@pleepler]

I'm long on everything since last year's spring, so my silver lining in all this mess is that most likely I'm still in the green after all is said and done and bled out. And given how irrational the markets are and are doing everything in their power to ignore what's happening, and given the average attention span of a major news story is barely 2 days, I won't sound insane for expecting another quick V-shaped recovery in a week or two. Fun (not really)

[@andrewbakescakes9684]

@1:11:00 I'm noticing this too. Suddenly, out of the wood work, come all these "experts" that don't really understand how things work. Subbed, btw. Great vid.

[@heyHamez]

Hey Mark! I recall your brief investment in Goodyear Tires and wondered if that was a play on a turnaround story. Even so, what do you look for that shows huge potential for a successful turnaround for a company/stock that is otherwise priced for bankruptcy? Thanks.

[@farzad_tahamtani]

Thanks Prof. Meldrum for helping us get ready for the busy week ahead🙏

[@RONITSAHOOmba]

1)Do people really can make money by seeing what trades the is senators have taken ? 2)Do you expect us to do financial modelling for every security we want to buy, hold or sell( if we will build personal portfolio), which I think is impossible and it has a lot of assumptions ,so why are we making it since it is based on a lot of assumptions which can be true or false?

[@aarshtrivedi5305]

1) No - at least not over the long-run. If you're buying when the senators are buying then you must be selling when the senators are selling. 2) The point of financial modelling isn't to get to the "correct" intrinsic value of a stock. That is unobservable. The point is to test out your assumptions, and see the sensitivity of those assumptions on the target price, and the relationship between the various assumptions.

[@garrettjohnston3769]

Big fan of this kind of content and your CFA learning materials (just signed up for L3 in August!). Wondering if you could expand on your discussion about likely IR cuts as a result of tariffs in a future video, as the resulting higher prices combined with lower growth seems to stress both of the issues that central banks aim to combat. Guessing the answer has something to do with central banks controlling what they can, but I’d like to hear how you would explain it

[@marcosdepaula3593]

Great video as always!!!! Thank you

[@JuliusCeasar-i6z]

There is no need for avoiding the political talks. Not sure about others but I do enjoy listening to your opinion, i do disagree with some but it is very nice hearing other perspectives.

[@DemosApollo]

If i was a country leader now in mexico or canada, i start purging microsoft office first and then windows itself from goverment instituions first and then companies. On simpler strategy is to stop enforcing anti copywrite laws for american software even in big companies.

[@zoulzopan]

The anti copy write laws would be the biggest change and easier one. But would that even be legal?

[@HectorYague]

Yeah right, remove Windows from your governamental PCs and... go back to pen, paper and abacus to manage your country? 😂

[@marlow875]

Hi Dr. Mark, is it possible Trump went lighter on China because there are more currently existing tariffs via section 301 issued under the Biden presidency on specific goods being imported from China? I believe there weren’t near as many tariffs on Canada or Mexico prior to Trump being sworn in when compared to China.

[@Pikachu_invest]

Professor, after so many years I really feel like I know you personally! And you are so happy you are short ! (at least a part of your portfolio)

[@TailedSage]

how realistic do you think the possibility of european or asian tarrifs in response to the USA?

[@I_Lemaire]

Inevitable.

[@amazaaa]

Hi Mark, one thing that will supposedly do well is market makers, which thrieve on volatility. Most of them are private, but Virtu Financial in U.S. and Flow Traders in the Netherlands are public. I have been interested in market makers, imter-dealer brokers, and similar companies since I started my investment journey a few years ago. I would love to hear your thoughts on this sector, considering their peculiarities: low or negative beta, some have reasonably stable dividends, they are posed to benefit from increase in volumes and / or volatility in a wide range of assets, including crypto. Thanks for your videos!

[@boston.z2651]

Insightful video !

[@samanehmaram7933]

Great and insightful outlook!

[@nex8354]

Slam buy on /ES puts tonight when it opens, take profit mid-day tmr, then if IV is high enough, short 1 DTE /ES puts with strike a few hundred points OTM. If you want to gamble, buy some calls for Tues expiration.

[@ripvanmarlowe]

Value your opinion. Thanks for the info

[@branlob]

I am sure this was answered before, but I haven't watched for some time - why does the 1Y UST have the lowest yield?

[@mihael1251]

- Imagine, Canada becoming a part of US with heavily reduced taxes - Professor Mark in Costa Rica : 🗿🗿🗿

[@MarkMeldrum]

Not quite - Canada would be like California, with over a 50% tax - plus you now pay about $20K a year for health care coverage - and live with school shootings just being part of the culture.

[@mihael1251]

@MarkMeldrum I think in order to make US the biggest country in the world, Trump will offer and give Canada everything he can

[@Dv-kg7nc]

I always thought of US trade deficits would be similar to a company running a negative cash conversion cycle. Basically, you have your suppliers finance your deficit. Additionally, US is able to export some of its inflation as USD is the global reserve currency which provides a natural bid for the dollar. Usually prices would adjust downwards and import prices would increase for US citizens. To me, reducing the trade deficit through tariffs doesn’t really make sense as trade deficits for US don’t seem to be as relevant as they would be for other countries. Is there a flaw with my thinking somewhere ?

[@shaahinflamenco]

What do you think about the "buy Canadian" mentality for the people to combat the tariffs? Does it have a meaningful impact? Should the citizens be expected to directly be involved in the fight against the tariffs?

[@hasenkopfe]

Trying to logically step through the game theory that may unfold here. Agree that those damaged by US imposing tariffs are incentivized to act as a coalition and strike at red states. If politically savvy, then those instituting the tariffs would do so in a way that increases the value of the red state labor, or that the tariffs would generate enough federal government revenue that would then be used to economically fortify red states. Perhaps I’m oversimplifying but I would expect some new equilibrium to be reached if tariffs stick especially if deregulation can be leveraged to support the most severely impacted industries like automotive. Nothing quick, nothing painless but certainly a spectacle of volatility ahead.

[@YieldFinder-zo2kg]

Mark, I believe the 10% for China is due to the existing 10% tariff that was imposed during Trump’s first term.

[@gscorsone]

Wonderful commentary, and great ideas on what could be driving Trump’s decisions! Note on Friday he stated in a press conference, there is no concessions these countries can make this is an economic decision. If that’s true, it helps your theory.

[@zoulzopan]

I don't understand how does that help out marks theory?

[@sean4850]

China is 10% tariff ontop of what they have already. Does that change it? Don’t think Canada has much tariffs at all so different base level currently.

[@thomasfallows7060]

Thank you Mark

[@HectorYague]

Mark, if you say that tariffs are not inflationary (just a one-time price push, but not a change in rate), and furthermore you also establish that GDP growth will suffer, then why would TLT tank on Monday? It should be the opposite.

[@trashboat264]

Good video, man. Keep up the good work!

[@imfromtoronto]

Keep Politics Section! I would suggest to even have a separate video on Politics. I think economics and politics cannot be separated out.

[@Rizzickk]

I wonder if this all turns out well for the US, if you will make a reconciliation video. You’re highly intelligent Mark, I think if you were in Tradeau’s spot, Canada would have a fighting chance along with Mexico. But you’re intelligent, inherently the reason why you are not in that position. Canada and Mexico are in trouble.

[@Shivastorm88]

Anecdotally, I think U.S. exports of services will take a hit if Trump continues down that path. I personally cancelled Netflix, Amazon Prime and Disney+ after yesterday. If you go to the Canada subreddit, so many posts are about encouraging others to do so, and find alternatives, whether Canadian, Mexican, or other countries

[@HectorYague]

What Canadian or Mexican alternative there is to your Netflix, Amazon Prime or Disney+, etc? Please talk a lot of shit on Reddit, but I can assure that hardly anyone in Canada/Mexico is cancelling their Netflix.

[@adamzalkalns5680]

How about - keep your friends close and your enemies closer

[@aaronstein8585]

Can someone post a link to the LSEG earnings list? Is it public?

[@MarkMeldrum]

Description box

[@Mad-Chimmy]

Time to Load up on GM, Ford, and TLT Leaps ?!?!

[@rusinoe8364]

Brave man.

[@Paul-mm8bf]

Happy Sunday

[@TheChinaPlay]

Americans need Jobs more than they needs low priced products from Canada, China or Mexico. Tariffs allow for these structural changes to take place. We are willing to sacrifice your jobs and your industries if that means higher prices so that we have domestic production and consumption and most importantly dignity for people who not seen economic progress for decades! That's the reality whether you itch and complain, like it or not, etc., Every country has a right to determine their own destiny. Yes, it's not economically efficient in the short term, but in the long term all that matters is survival. No hard feelings Canada. Harder feelings toward China and Mexico who supply the biggest drug epidemic in history. Look at the election results, Trump is widely supported and loved. This is what Americans want. MAGA!

[@Alex-vi5fr]

Really glad I moved to ~70% cash over the last few months. I've been also slowly accumulating gold. I think this is a setup for gold to blast through $3000 maybe even move to $4000 in 2025 if this type of insanity persists.

[@MrDeadlyCrow]

How do you prefer to be addressed (by strangers, e.g. in the comments section)? Professor, Doctor, or just by your name?

[@marcmata]

Good day, Dr. Mark. Have you come across or can you recommend a good read on market manipulation schemes carried out over the past century in financial markets-something like a 'dark bible of fraud'? The idea is to build awareness for the upcoming deregulated environment.

[@evanlebzu1]

How would Gold do?

[@CooperWolfe-pv5fu]

Very very good.

[@gregorybainathsah7284]

Can you please arrange to have the Market Outlooks on KZbin Music? I think you can do so via some type of RSS feed I love watching the videos but I don't have mobile data

[@engage3085]

Awesome video! I was telling my wife Canada needs to tax america on the energy at the same 25% and then you said it! Hopefully tariffs force canada into finally refining our resources here and selling to other countries. Make us independent for once

[@andrewbakescakes9684]

I always thought Canada was trading with the US as sort of a "friendly neighbour" thing.

[@johntrolle8935]

Doubt it markets will take it as bad as Dr. Meldrum thinks - There will always be the optionality of a new "trade deal" as in 2016

[@nshs1234]

Hi Mark, I think you should start a merch line and expand from hats to Stanley cups, hoodies, mugs, T-shirts, suit pins, bumper stickers etc. For those who passed level 1, the back of the shirt could show a check box checked next to the words "CFA level 1" and a buffering sign next to level 2.. only people who pass get to order it. same for level 2 pass outs and so on.

[@VidyaBelchade]

I am shot BTC since friday..Guess whos going shopping

[@Mad-Chimmy]

Politics have a large part to play in the Markets and Economic policies. Deal with the truth or live in your own lies.

[@ironlifebarbell7227]

Hi Mark, I would love to hear your thoughts on how Canadian energy companies will fare during this time. Any insight would be appreciated, thanks!

[@MrDeadlyCrow]

57:31 Ooou no, I get your point, but skilled UFC fighter would one-shot KO even 10 average Joes, not 4! Ask Joe Rogan

[@HectorYague]

Absolutely. One professional fighter KOs a regular Joe in one shot. Within 10 seconds that 4 vs 1 would be 2 vs 1, and then those 2 would flee.

[@vincentdenuit2829]

Trump knows real estate and real estate loves/needs low rates. One way to get the FED to cut is a big market drop...so is this his way of getting the FED to do what he wants? Unless the market thinks that tariffs will be short-lived and/or wont go through?

[@patrickwoock]

i wish i had a big tub of popcorn, but its been tariffed....how do you make a small fortune in Trumps World? Start with a large fortune- and work down.

[@crouton394]

I can't afford my caramel popcorn in India anymore either..

[@danielferdel]

50:34 Most of the US Imports come from China, and China is also the mayor buyer of American debt, basically China pays America to consume their products. I think thats why it will be only a 10% over China, the risk to get a supply driven inflation is to much to take

[@CSqrdX]

This is a far from accurate commonly parroted nonsense statement. China holds less than 3% of US treasury. Japan is a larger holder and Fed, banks, governments, pensions, insurance, etc, hold most of our debt. Close to 70% is held domestically.

[@faltitudebossareas1882]

56:55 1 vs 4 unless it's jon jones :)

[@GoldEspresso]

is CAD headed to .5

[@frootflie2968]

When Trump floated the idea of removing capital gains tax, I didn't realise he'd accomplish that by removing the gains...

[@12time12]

This is outrageous, but he did promise to do so and people still backed him. Canada is our friend, I’m so embarrassed. My sincere apologies to all Canadians, you don’t deserve this.

[@I_Lemaire]

Save your apologies, just get ready for pain.

[@Zznitro]

lol were about to have the worst recession here in canada. i would be lucky if i can buy food soon

[@JeanSeb1993]

Why make insider trading when you can literaly create the rules...

[@akinolaakinremi9432]

Great video

[@CooperWolfe-pv5fu]

Silver short squeeze. 60% of silver is imported from Mexico and Canada. 25% is going to really pressure short selling banks.

[@cid1851]

I just hope we get out ok after all this, damn it’s a bold move though

[@Ephraim-o5w]

Is a dictatorship good for my retirement portfolio?

[@ledeux]

Could be

[@I_Lemaire]

American decline is real.

[@Trollingology]

Any thoughts on to the idea that the extent to the tariffs on China would be a negotiation tactic to force China to buy US bonds to bring long end yields down? This would help China deal with their currency deflation spiral as well. There is a rumor that Stephan Miran proposed this.

[@evanlebzu1]

I think Canada should just take it, and survive those 4 years.

[@fin31337]

By the way, Canada can now begin selling to Greenland. :)

[@downtown124]

Trade does not seem to be the big part of US GDP and growth, but the investment and incoming capital into the US is big chuck of growth and GDP. Would not it be better to concentrate on investments instead of trade war?

[@MarkMeldrum]

You may be confusing the trade balance with trade itself. Imports are over 4T. That is 13% of GDP. Exports are over 3T.

[@Nic-nh5ho]

You are wrong on every aspect of the Tariffs! China is minimum 35%, 10 % on top of 25% already imposed before. 100% already on China's EV. and 50% on steel and other semiconductors. You liberals just hate Trump, don't you? It is also too naive to think that other countries in the world can align together to fight against U.S. Not to mention more than half of the worlds are third world countries and tyranny governments waiting for the dismantle the western civilizations, none of those will help you fight but bite you hard when they got the chance. Look at the UN, WHO, those are fundamentally controlled by China and African countries, since when Canada can be aligned with those? Or enemies' enemy is your friend, you are not that ignorant, aren't you? u are

[@branlob]

you must be new here. Mark was actually in favor of Trump being elected (which baffles me to this day, given so many econ nobel prize winners were in unison on who's policies will benefit the economy more). Calling him a liberal is just plain ignorant though

[@dealsled30]

doesn't trump want to onshore supply chains and replace fed income tax with tariffs? And then also lower taxes for all companies that comply? Like you said, seems like a stretch without retaliation but HYPOTHETICALLY could his play make sense in that context?

[@filipjovic7212]

Time to start studying Mandarin

[@martiantaylor]

Do you think this could be a wake-up call for Canada? Politicians are saying we must never be this reliant on the US again.

[@dojimaryotaro6563]

I think it's important to keep in mind that this will hopefully end in 4 years or less, given the current President's supreme cardiovascular fitness, whereas alternatives to the U.S. may benefit our actual geopolitical adversaries. It's a real nice mess our American friends got us all into.

[@AKAK-rh7lr]

2:55 bean

[@wm6549]

Republicans would never allow Canada to be a state. They would be overwhelmingly Democrat and the size of California at that.

[@rusinoe8364]

Well fuck. My TLT is dead.

[@jerryolivarez1344]

The 10% on Candian Energy shows his weak point for the world to see. I thought he was the great negotiator. If the bloodbath comes it too late to trade but I would wait for his back tracking for the reversal. He did it all through his first administration. I would hate to think he does it on purpose!!

[@dennisw8026]

Little Donald loves tariffs because he can act like a little dictator, bypassing congress. Such a little man