Mid-Census Population Growth Analysis- Which States Grew and Shrank the Most?

[@rickh950]

I would be curious to see this same map done by county (or parish) to see the areas of each state that gained or lost.

[@MikeP2055]

I agree. Salt Lake City proper doesn't have a very large footprint, so I think it's just over 200,000 people, but Salt Lake County-essentially the entire Salt Lake Valley-has grown like CRAZY! Same with Utah County to the south, as well as Davis and Weber counties to the north (the entire SL metro area, or "Wasatch Front.") Washington County, nearer to Las Vegas than SLC, in the extreme southwestern corner of the state, is out of control! (Sorry, that reply sort of got away from me, haha.)

[@Chris_at_Home]

I live in Alaska. While Anchorage is loosing people a nearby area has grown over 7% since 2020. Between 2010 and 2022 that same area’s population grew by 26%.

[@Cjinglaterra]

Lake of the Ozarks has certainly grown a lot. Wouldn’t be surprised if we’re responsible for most of Missouri’s growth, since we’ve certainly grown a lot more than the state as a whole.

[@johna2835]

Agree

[@annjames1837]

Does this include Biden's newcomers

[@arxligion]

This map would be more interesting at the county level

[@larryjacklin1683]

Kinda but it would be a 3 hour video 😊

[@aidanb.c.2325]

I'm from Western Mass and we've had a noticeable influx of New Yorkers due to people escaping the city as a response to the pandemic. And I would say that most of the growth in NH and ME has been an expansion of the Boston metro northward. Large numbers of people commute to Boston every day from southern NH. And with the increase in remote work, many folks have looked for smaller towns to resettle in, particularly if housing is cheaper and more available. So other than the rural areas where young people continue to leave and the population is definitely declining (like where I live), I'd say that Massachusetts is actually on the increase. It's just that the growth is technically across the border. It's essentially as if Gary, Hammond, and South Bend, Indiana gobbled up all the growth in Chicagoland.

[@thedopplereffect00]

People didn't leave a state due to a "pandemic" they left because of tyrannical governments

[@ecurewitz]

They say we’re massing up those states, which means we’re making those states better

[@orangekilla3374]

People are leaving Massachusetts due to insane taxes and high crime

[@mysterioanonymous3206]

Good call. But I might add that urban centre's generally have lower birth rates than more rural or even suburban ones. Meaning places like NYC or LA (the biggest cities in the country and their states respectively) as well as progressive places like SF or Boston increasingly start aging out. So it's not just population dynamics but demographics. Covid really tanked birth rates and large cities are most affected. That drop is now reflected in recent numbers.

[@Ouzoadventures]

I’m from Charlotte and there are thousands of New Yorkers also moving there as well as Atlanta and Florida. New Yorkers are everywhere.

[@tg426]

Great video Kyle! Would be interesting to see this at the county level to see the gain/loss by area in each state.

[@andrewtaylor3167]

For the Midwestern turn around, the big factor would be cost. The popular southern areas are getting a bit more expensive. The shrinking cost of living isn't making up for lower general pay. The midwest + less popular southern states (AL/AR/OK) will probably benefit the most. Property taxes in Texas/insurance in Florida with the rising property values were brutal (pretty much only Hawaii and Alabama had rates low enough to not get as sucker punched by taxes on escalating property values).

[@vincentfalcone9218]

The South, in particular NC,SC,TN,GA and especially Florida - is no longer cheap. Couple that with extreme traffic due to cities not being able to handle the increased population, brutal summer heat and some nasty hurricanes - and I'm thinking we'll see something of a reverse exodus back to parts of the Midwest and Northeast.

[@natebryars732]

@@vincentfalcone9218this is just wishful thinking. The south is in no way too expensive to live in. In most of the states you named, there maybe 2 cities that are primarily even driving growth, thus relating to how expensive things are. There are medium sized cities in each of these states that are not the charlottes, atlantas, nashvilles, etc where the population can increase while the cost of living doesn’t shoot up dramatically. Pensacola, FL, Huntsville, AL, Savannah, GA, Greenville, SC. The big cities will continue to get people because jobs continue to locate there, and the medium sized cities will continue to attract people who want an affordable life and not having to be in a multi million person metro area. I do agree that the Midwest will eventually turn around and begin to recover population, but the majority of the Midwest’s main cities are still in population free fall such as Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh. Even if those cities find ways to stop the bleeding and begin to recover, that will take decades. It would take generations to recover the populations they had in the 50s. Cities like Youngstown, Toledo, Gary, Dayton, Eerie will have a much tougher battle than the larger cities in staging comebacks.

[@kjhuang]

The big factor for any population changes will be cost. Basically the first question a person will ask themselves is: how shitty of a location can I tolerate for cheap rent?

[@HX79]

​@@natebryars732it may take decades for STL to reach its old city population, but STL will be on the rise. Many large projects beginning, awesome and classic city architecture at half of even Chicago prices. Right now STL downtown is hurting, but they are actively planning a come back. Also, the metro is cool with nice burbs. Chicago is underrated by most on the interwebs...we visit often and its looking great. Also many major projects (the 78 neighborhood, Lincoln Yards, new Sox and Bears stadiums), and more coming. Look for Northern KY and Cincinnati also to improve. Many are noticing these are great places and affordable. For us, we observe many moving out of the stand alone Midwestern towns.... not enough jobs, not enough to do, and way too much conservative negativity....its very unattractive and these are the main reasons we're probably leaving in a few years. FL is overrated...the hurricanes and extreme summer heat....who wants to deal with that when on the opposite the Midwestern winters aren't that bad anymore? Just my (our) 2 cents.

[@vincentfalcone9218]

@@natebryars732 The issues are hitting the mid-size cities as well. Knoxville, Greenville (SC), Chattanooga, Charleston, Asheville and many more - all have experienced skyrocketing rent/home price increases and traffic well beyond what the roads can handle.

[@evanc8057]

Maine's growth I believe is because of remote work, proximity to nature, proximity to large metros on the east coast, while remaining center-left in politics. It can also still be pretty cheap compared to other places in that region.

[@twest344]

I really appreciate that you say "This is just my hypothesis" instead of "this is my theory". I know that I'm sort of knit-picking, but semantics matter. (I guess I'm a word nerd as well as a geography nerd).

[@VanillaMacaron551]

It's "nit-picking". 🤦‍♀

[@twest344]

@@VanillaMacaron551 Thank you- lice eggs, not knitting, my bad

[@newmexrob99]

"Communication is the cornerstone of civilization".. Voltaire

[@RogueSamus27]

Oh, nice! A map I've contributed to. =p I moved from Chicago, IL to Salt Lake City, UT back in 2021. Loving it here, and the taxes are even higher than IL! Fortunately, my income has increased by $20k, too. Love the channel, Kyle. Keep up the good work.

[@CrimsonLegacy]

Glad you're enjoying life after the move! What are some of the things you like about living in Salt Lake City more compared to Chicago? It's an open question, so feel free to get away from statistical data and and go more anecdotal if you'd like. Just curious!

[@oldtop4682]

Utah taxes are pretty high, but they are a fixed rate (income) at least. Property taxes have been going way up the last few years due to folks moving in and a housing shortage that extends all the way up from Nephi to above Ogden. That has driven prices of homes higher, and thus the tax paid. One thing I will say for my home state though - they are generally good stewards of tax dollars compared to some other states I've lived in (like Illinois). FYI - the Mountain West in general costs more than most places (housing, food etc.

[@RogueSamus27]

@@CrimsonLegacy Well, before coming here, I had criteria: Close proximity to mountains and National Parks; Mid size airport; Bike friendly; Affordable. Utah was the only state in the West that fit all of that. Best part has been the mountains. They're beautiful year round, and you can enjoy them year round thru hiking, biking, skiing, you-name-it! I primarily hike, and primarily late-spring-fall, but winter has become my favorite season because the mountains are most gorgeous in that season. Also, after living in Chicago for 11.5 years, let's just say: the winters are MILD by comparison(!), Haha. Also, living and hiking at elevation has made me much healthier and able to walk and hike inother countries. It's the best. The only things I miss about Chicago are the architecture, diversity, and international flights. With SLC's new airport, I don't miss O'Hare, just the incredible amount of international destinations one can go to nonstop. As far as diversity, I am Afro-American (I like this term because I have been rocking a fro for 10+ years), and while I do miss my people, I traded diversity of demographics for diversity of geography. I am more than content with that decision. That said, Salt Lake City is quite unique. I have yet to find another place around the world at its size, surrounded by mountains, and so internationally connected. As of right now, there isn't any other place in the US I want to live, regardless of income. And PS: I am not Mormon.

[@RogueSamus27]

@@oldtop4682 Oh, yes. IL is VERY corrupt, politically. But I loved living in the Big City, until, well, I didn't. I have found UT to have some lower costs as far as dining out, gas (sometimes), etc. I wasn't aware of the higher state tax until I started making more $$. I don't own property, but the rents for me have been affordable. Fortunately, there has been a lot of new housing throw up lately, which is helping.

[@PSIponies]

Hey, I moved from Cincinnati, OH to Salt Lake City last year!

[@timnitz2654]

great analysis thanks!

[@CapeCodBoy79]

We formerly lived in Delaware. Lots of retirees moving into Sussex County from NYC/Long Island, Pennsylvania, and the DC metro.

[@veronicajaeger3604]

Great video! Love to see more just like this. Thanks, Kyle!

[@chrisconklin2981]

Thanks for the presentation. I grew up in Florida and purposefully live twenty miles inland from the Gulf. With three hurricanes, it will be interesting to watch for any population changes. Home insurance rates have been increasing and will most likely accelerate. I would not be surprised to see a migration away from coastal areas and even out of the state. The original coastal native Floridians built shell mounds. Some mounds were ceremonial , but mounds may also have been storm shelters.

[@jordanl69]

Not only will property insurers raise rates, most non government sponsored insurers have completely left the state. You’re going to basically have to get a government subsidized insurance plan (much like they already have but scaled way up) in order to insure property there. The only issue being is that it’s going to be insanely expensive when they can’t spread out their losses.

[@reddykilowatt]

⁠@@jordanl69MAGA Florida isn’t going to government subsidize anything since it would require massive tax increases. The state is unsustainable given the current politics there.

[@thesharinganknight]

I see alot of people moving to Atlanta more than it's already been, Just because of the weather.

[@Dangic23]

I moved to FL in 2022 ( FWB) and moved out in 2023. Sold everything including a brand new built house that had a 2.75% mortgage. The Panhandle is a craphole.

[@jeffruebens8355]

​@@Dangic23 My sister and her husband live in a big camping trailer about 25 miles from the Florida coast from November to April, then in another big camping trailer in upper NY State from May to October. Her husband does construction work both places. I see a future with more cheap homes not insured, often bought used, and the Rush Limpballs in big mansions they are self insuring with their millions in investments and other homes.

[@steveb7429]

As an ex Californian, I can testify that the migration is absolutely due to the cost of living. In 2012, I rented a decent apartment in West Hollywood for $1250 a month. That exact same apartment rented for $2700 in 2019 when I left. I imagine by now the rent is over $3000 for that apartment. California was always expensive, but not crazy expensive like it is now, and it really is a shame because it’s such a beautiful place and the culture is so much more relaxed.

[@buzzsmith8146]

It's crazy isn't it?

[@ChadSimplicio]

Remote work. Cost of living. Affordability. Proximity to fun places. Being around like-minded neighbors. Those 5 contribute to what Kyle discussed IMO.

[@MaxZomboni]

#3 and #4. If you look at that map those are all just really nice, fun states to live in. California should be in dark green too, but it's just not affordable and has too many problems, which lower the appeal of it.

[@cur244]

Less expensive states generally have less to do.

[@BillDotree]

Upstate New York is the spot to be if you’re looking for those 5

[@jeffruebens8355]

​@@BillDotreewhere I grew up. Taxes are high in NY State, but if you can find a job it likely pays more than cheaper states. I moved to Kentucky in 1991 for a new job, and am still there. Upper NY State has better weather June to August, and Kentucky has better weather November to March.

[@thatissomeBS]

@@BillDotree I never know if someone saying upstate NY is talking about Orange County, Oneida County, or Clinton County, because those all have very different scores on those 5 categories.

[@bjdon99]

The Huntsville AL and Fayetteville AR metro areas are saving their two states from total decline

[@rwt8410]

Lived in Fort Smith and Fayetteville from 1998 to 2005. Go back every year to see the family. Can totally attest to this

[@JustinWayneDawg]

Very grateful for the Muir Maps code. I just so happened to be on there the other day dreaming of another map haha

[@adamjacquez9495]

Kyle, is there a big difference in average number of kids for states like California vs Oklahoma? Curious if that impacts the population patterns much.

[@MikeP2055]

Good question! I live in Utah, where it's not uncommon to see families with 4, 5, 6, or even more kids. Not statewide, but definitely in certain pockets of the state. Park City: very few kids. Utah County/Provo: TOO MANY KIDS. 🤣 My parents' neighborhood in Utah County is brimming with kids, whereas my neighborhood in Salt Lake City proper has far fewer. I've lived there for 22 years and never had a single trick-or-treater.

[@GeographyKing]

I didn't look at that number, but I do know that Utah and Idaho always lead the nation in birth rate.

[@annjames1837]

Did this take into account the millions of Biden's/Harris newcomers

[@MrBigjoecincy]

I'm more impressed by the fact you were able to talk about this one map the whole time haha

[@KurtDepner]

Here at the beginning. Thanks for the new video, Kyle. Always appreciate your analyses.

[@GeographyKing]

Thank you! I'll try to keep it up

[@billswisshelm1505]

Northwest Indiana is, for the first time since the 50's/60's is the fastest growing subregion of Chicagoland. I see Gary starting to grow.....

[@victoriaburkhardt9974]

Thanks for this very interesting video.

[@user-zx8de8op9l]

Well done

[@pantone369c]

I'd love to see an XmR Chart of populations for each state to see what the trends have been over the last 100 years or so and if the latest data points are within those trends or if they are outside of control.

[@dylanlake7]

Vermont has kind of grown during the pandemic! The Burlington area is the largest "metro" but its still so small. Its like 100,000-200,000 the size of a suburb

[@larryfromwisconsin9970]

I agree with much of what you're saying. About zero State income tax, I moved to Texas in 2018 and their zero State income tax was attractive but wow, the sales tax is high. They're also aggressive increasing property assessments to get higher real estate tax revenue. Even as a renter we have had our rent increased due to higher real estate tax. So moving to an income tax free State to save money is a fallacy. And as far as the sales tax goes, it is a very regressive tax. It affects the poor disproportionately to the rich, especially where some food and all clothes are taxed like in Texas. The poor and the middle class are spending a larger proportion of their income on these necessities than the rich.

[@Compucles]

So you're saying some food isn't taxed? That's better than my state, although we do have a much lower sales tax rate for groceries compared to everything else.

[@JasonBrooks-b6t]

@@Compucles That's correct - unprepared foods (e.g., bread, milk, eggs, fruits, vegetables) are not taxed in TX. It's a pretty nice benefit for those of us who cook at home and don't go out to eat very often.

[@chefnyc]

I personally know 4 people who moved from NY to FL.

[@steveb7429]

I’ve lived in Orlando since June 2019, and, of all of the out-of-state plates I have seen in the last five , I would guess that 35-40% are from Ny, and another 15% are from NJ. So out of all of the 49 states other than FL, at least half are from Ny/NJ

[@tomclyne3320]

Really interesting video, thanks!

[@adambuesser6264]

Can you do a population map by county in each state? What counties are people moving to?

[@WrestlingGuy19]

I’m a western New Yorker and I’m pretty sure our counties population has grown. I don’t think population decrease in NYC is a bad thing.

[@BillDotree]

Same. I live near Syracuse and population seems to be booming. I’ve never seen this much traffic

[@WrestlingGuy19]

@@BillDotree I’m hoping there’s an in state migration upstate over the course of the next couple decades. I know we’re gonna be a climate haven when shit really hits the fan so I’m interested to see how our economies start to boom

[@jordanl69]

One thing is that the percentages tell a relative story, it would have been interesting to actually have the absolute numbers to compliment.

[@theflamingeagle572]

Exactly, 9% of 100,000 is more than 11% of 70,000. Percentages go down, but it doesn't tell the entire story.

[@theflamingeagle572]

5% of India's population is 72.6 million. 5% of the US population is 17.3 million

[@mrjava66]

Nice map. I think putting -0.5% to +0.5% in the central group would have been better. Awesome to see this data btw.

[@SlapStyleAnims]

Eventually there won’t be anywhere in the country with cheap cost of living. Sad to see Wyoming and South Dakota booming, those have been very cheap places to live in the past

[@ethanglover1579]

Wyoming isn’t booming, that’s percentage of growth. 1% of the 570,000 people in Wyoming is very different than 1% of the 5,800,000 in Colorado.

[@annjames1837]

Any state a Californian moves to, it becomes a crap hole

[@theaveragejoe5781]

Build!

[@gabdewulf]

Instead comparing taxes, compare cost of living. That's what drive people further. We left Denver co for middle of PA because the pay was comparable to lower col.

[@ThomasPoulin]

Massachusetts resident here, what you have to understand is that it is very expensive to live here, and on top of that we aren't building nearly enough housing thankfully the state has made it actually desirable to have kids here? I'm noting a huge amount of little ones in my neighborhood. People seem to think Massachusetts is a great place to start a family

[@cur244]

People have money in MA and it's a fairly low crime state. At least it is compared to southern states. Great healthcare, schools and a lot to do in the region. I'd live there, but it's just far too expensive.

[@senatorjosephmccarthy2720]

Hopefully that area will start teaching people how to use punctuation in printed communication attempts.

[@ecurewitz]

Massachusetts is one of those places where you get what you pay for

[@paulsadleir1986]

You're the man

[@Kent-qo6xp]

I would like an map of water springs in the middle west. Keep up your very interesting work.

[@mostbestjia627]

Geo king uploads 👑, I click❤

[@Bioniking]

So on point about the short term memory, as someone once said, we live in the “United States of Amnesia”

[@lalodaniels1388]

Writing from Visalia, California here. I was wondering if you could please make a video on the Cross Valley Corridor and the California High Speed Rail?

[@MikeP2055]

Do you follow City Nerd? He's an urbanism 'Tuber and has some interesting videos about that sort of thing (and the driest sense of humor I've ever seen🤣).

[@lalodaniels1388]

@@MikeP2055 I do follow City Nerd and he is great. He even mentioned Visalia in one of his videos. He does really great work.

[@margefoyle6796]

He did a video on California high speed rail.

[@lalodaniels1388]

@@margefoyle6796 Really? I didn't know.

[@margefoyle6796]

@@lalodaniels1388 yes, in Jan 2023. Google geography king high speed rail.

[@bigaaron]

You ever consider doing more international videos? Love your content!

[@DillonMinasian]

ebjoyed the video a lot. suggestion for the next time you do this, maybe occasionaly circle or mark with arrows where you sre talking about

[@MikeP2055]

(I don't know how to say this without sounding like a jerk, so please understand that I'm just teasing you a little, but . . .) The map is color coded, the states are all marked, and he explained the areas he was talking about by using cardinal directions-northeast, southeast, etc. Unless you aren't from The States, in which case I can understand how it would be confusing. 😉

[@MrDipper3]

I like this one a lot.

[@LogoTimeClark]

The present tax rates in some states are changing. In the state I live the income tax is headed to being a flat tax and retirees do not pay state taxes on pensions, 401Ks, and social security. Retirees receive 2 credits on property taxes as well. This keeps retirees from moving to no income tax states. You can take a nice vacation from winter when you don't pay state taxes on income.

[@pauljarski7977]

I think the growth of Maine and New Hampshire is probably fueled in large part by Boston Metro remote workers relocating for cheaper cost of living.

[@johnchance7836]

A lot of these changes can simply be explained by migration out of the states where the population is too large and thus the cost of living is too high while the availability of housing is too low. This is a pattern you see throughout history. People migrate to highly attractive areas with great social policies until the presence of too many people start to raise the cost of living beyond what most people can afford, and then once a tipping point happens migration flows out from those highly attractive and successful places into the surrounding areas . . . changing the population demographics of places like Maine, Nevada, Arizona, etc . . . Usually the growth areas would be nearby but with the availability of long distance travel we see a lot of people from New York traveling further south along the east coast to avoid the rust belt which still has a bad reputation.

[@bakarka]

I think a large part of this is Baby Boomers retiring and moving to warmer or cheaper areas. New Yorkers may retire to Maine, NH or the SE states, especially Florida, while California's retirees are cashing out and moving to the interior West and Texas. I think Utah always has the highest birth rate because the LDS promotes it.

[@somerandomguy5977]

New York City lost a ton of population because of covid policies and politics last couple of years. They also refuse to lower rent prices even though the city has been declining for years.

[@RedScareClair]

I'm calling it now, at some point in the next 50 years the rust belt states are going to make a big comeback. They are the old cities that were still built to human scale so they still have walkable city centers and suburbs. If the projections are right that states like mine will officially become tropical, those states will be more comfortable for people who don't like being hot. You can still find cheap real estate in rust belt cities. I follow a creator in Utica, NY and I think she said their population is like 70k but the city has the infrastructure for like 250k. That's crazy.

[@chrishaddad5362]

Pittsburgh is like that too. I like cities like that

[@lk29392]

yeah, agree, rust belt will have a renaissance in the next several decades.

[@tann_man]

Lol "tropical" An annual increase of roughly +0.04F on average over the next 100 years won't get the midwest to tropical

[@cur244]

The problem with only looking at income tax is the states get you other ways. I moved from the midwest to FL where there's no income tax, but the insurance is 3-4x as expensive so I'm no better off. Have to look at everything. If you're median income or under you'll be no better off. High income is really beneficial to move to a no income tax state though!

[@LeveyHere]

Interesting!

[@kjhuang]

I'm interested to see how many people move to California in the coming years as the affordability crisis and the climate crisis converge. California is simultaneously the worst state for affordability but the best state for protection against extreme weather. People will have to choose between their bank accounts and their lives.

[@suprensa4393]

This is incorrect. Per the US Climate Vulnerability Index, which accounts for environmental, economic, social, and infrastructural vulnerabilities to climate change comparing between different zip codes and different states, California is among the middle of the pack when it comes to insulation/vulnerability to climate change. Based on the US CVI metrics, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, and Montana are all more insulated from the effects of climate change than California.

[@kjhuang]

​@@suprensa4393Oh okay. I was thinking in terms of extreme weather-related events only. Does the index break down data by city or metro areas as well? I'm thinking that the coastal metro regions in California have less extreme weather (and are also more expensive) but maybe the inland areas increase California's vulnerability as a whole.

[@firecracker3911]

I moved from a nice town in Rhode Island to another nice town in Rhode Island!❤❤

[@tsurdyk]

My son moved from South Kingstown to Providence...

[@thomasmcroy1756]

Depending on source, Oregon either marginally lost or gained population. Portland State University's numbers are what the state uses and they said Oregon actually gained 23k in 2023. The census says we lost ppl so they're at odds with one another. Based on the amount of time I sit in traffic we have LOTS of ppl. 😂

[@GeographyKing]

I think it may be like Michigan or Ohio that have seen population increase in the past year, but still overall lower than 2020 because of losses in 2020 and 2021. But I'd expect Oregon to show some growth by 2030.

[@theaveragejoe5781]

CBO seems to have different data than Census, showing spike in population growth in 2024. Does Census account for migration properly?

[@giuchici4]

Best videos

[@DadgeCity]

Does the fall of popn in NYC mean empty apartments and a fall in property prices?

[@naptime0143]

No they'll just tax who is still living there 😂

[@jacobbashford2182]

Howdy Kyle

[@GeographyKing]

Howdy

[@TaylorMMontgomery]

interesting to see the stagnant states that we pretty much expect as well, places like Mississippi and West Virginia, Pennsylvania.

[@Elcomendante64]

Washington state also has no income tax.

[@magellanicspaceclouds]

If you exclude the economic and societal problems, I believe one of the biggest reasons for the changes is that people are just tired of cold climates.

[@thedopplereffect00]

Then why is population growing in Montana, Idaho, South Dakota and Maine?

[@magellanicspaceclouds]

@@thedopplereffect00 There are more hot moved-to states than cold ones.

[@kjhuang]

Economics trump all. Most people would choose a cold state with jobs/cheapness than a warm state without (e.g. Louisiana). Deciding based on climate is a luxury fewer and fewer people can afford, unless we're taking about a climate situation that has direct financial impact like flood insurance in Florida.

[@robertsenger5660]

I think the biggest surprise for the next five years is going to be Iowa; every time I go there it's just booming. There' is going to be a population increase that goes along with that.

[@BillGreenAZ]

I understand that South Dakota is a zero income tax state and that people would move there for that reason if they can work remotely. But I have to wonder that they could move to a warmer climate if they could live anywhere. I wonder if the population increase is due to the availability of jobs there. I know their population has been increasing for decades because of the availability of jobs and the low cost of living.

[@MaxZomboni]

3:58 Haha, I would take your bet on that one. Trying to predict when a 75 year long population decline will end is hard. This might be the decade when Detroit loses the least number of people since 1950. But gaining population? I can't imagine what would cause that to happen. First the decline has to stop.

[@ztl2505]

I imagine the post-COVID remote boom was the biggest hit for the massive tier 1 cities like NYC, LA, and SF. How many people were staying in those sort of metros solely because they had high-paying jobs that didn’t exist anywhere else?

[@mew3782]

For the 50th year running, the undisputed king of population distribution remains Central Air Conditioning. Everything else pales by comparison.

[@SymphoniasStories]

I'd like to see what is happening with Iowa. I have family there and it's a possible move-to state for us.

[@michaeldeierhoi4096]

Just be aware of the areas that are frequently hit by tornadoes.

[@snipz127]

I couldn't have been happier to move to FL from IL.

[@deannilvalli6579]

I am aware that many people have moved as a result of the pandemic and the possibility to work remotely, and thus choose places with no or low income tax. But I think apart from this specific demographic, few people move strictly because of tax rates, unless they live close to a relevant border. Relocating is a big change in your life, and proximity to friends and family is very important to most people.

[@iamvirginiarise8936]

I wonder why Maine is growing in population to such a high degree. It's a very high tax state. We moved here from the southeast, and I've yet to meet another southerner willing to put up with the harsh New England Winters.

[@thomasmacdiarmid8251]

Besides the attraction of low-tax states to telecommuters, the availability of spacious homes cheap in the midwest and similar areas is probably a big draw.

[@MikeP2055]

This was a very interesting video and I have no oversimplified opinions about any of it. Except for the half-dozen or so (mostly) polite replies I wrote while *hockey-game-drunk last night. * - Hockey-drunk is above basketball-drunk, but below soccer-drunk. Soccer-drunk is a skootch below getting-thrown-out-of-a-bar-drunk. Individual results may vary based on whether you live in a red state or a blue state. (Which is a bullsh*t variable that I just made up because that doesn't really factor into this as heavily as some people seem to think it does. Alcoholism is much more nuanced than something so logically reductive and reactionary.)

[@1TakoyakiStore]

When a community figures out how to best maintain a healthy economy despite a population stall or decrease it's going to change the USA. I say this because a lot of communities, especially the ones here in central Florida want to hit a sweet spot in population and then stay there, as in no knew developments, no new malls, no new attractions to attract tourists from out of state. Sure it might be economically unrealistic, but that's just what the majority of people want in that area.

[@KyleLeHeup]

Detroit is growing again

[@jakef3995]

I wonder why Pennsylvania is losing population. I’ve driven through it plenty of times and it’s beautiful there. Unless it’s just Philadelphia

[@naptime0143]

Mostly jobs and a change in scenery, and also older population like the rest of the northeast. Also Pennsylvania is one of those states that suffers from Brain drain

[@glebolas007]

I'm one of these people who moved from one of the green states (NC) over to a purple state (Illinois). No matter the trend, I fell in love with Chicago and my only regret is not moving here sooner.

[@aaronjones4465]

Need a New York State focus video

[@danielkoon1016]

Are you going to do a more detailed map of California on the California specific channel?

[@newmexrob99]

Interesting stuff Kyle. Covid fueled a migration that will be unprecedented in our lifetime. I lived in Arizona in 2019-2021. The number of Californians that moved there during that time was staggering. It changed the demographics of that state forever. It was a political red state that Cali changed to blue. Sub divisions were going up so fast hundreds of contractors came from out of state to supply the need for housing.

[@williamcarlson5405]

From WC, Consolidated City/ county governments grow faster too, because there is only one set of laws and one rate of taxes for all of the citizens of that county/city Examples, Nashville TN and Jacksonville FL!

[@daveadams8005]

I would like to see how the population changes will affect the distribution in the House of Representatives

[@tsurdyk]

One guarantee: Wyoming won't be getting a 2nd representative.

[@timwolfers7880]

I would guess that population decrease in some higher tax rate states is due to retirement people looking for a more affordable future, after making a good living and profiting from real estate investing.

[@joshthomas8986]

Maine is pretty great!

[@jeffruebens8355]

I see 2 big factors- where retirees and mobile workers want to move to, and second where a new factory or new big office building is built, for hundreds of new job openings.

[@SooperTrooper100]

❤Nerds.

[@user-mad7max11dystopia]

Most of it is simple math. The cost of living for people who can work remotely is a huge reason to leave cold expensive cities like New York and Chicago. Retirement savings go farther in the south.

[@briananderson5987]

you should do a fan meetup in Chattanooga

[@rogerpenske2411]

Choo Choo

[@d.pharmbot2092]

140 miles away in Birmingham--for now. After the election, I may seek refuge elsewhere.

[@jontalbot1]

These are pretty small changes. Overall it looks pretty much as you were

[@jaws10278]

I just moved to Ohio! It's super affordable

[@tjmartin8516]

We also have a pretty strong state culture, which is relatively rare these days. We don’t seem to be having the assimilation issues that Texas is experiencing.

[@WW-hr1hd]

I found it very interesting that you state one of the three major reasons for the slow population growth nationwide is that fewer immigrants have come to the US in the past few years. Can you share the source from which you draw that conclusion? If the rhetoric of one particular political faction is to be accepted as truth, we've been inundated with immigrants of all sorts, especially "illegal immigrants," over the past four years. If the statistics don't align with their rhetoric, that's an important fact that needs to be made more universally understood. I'd love to see an analysis of annual immigration statistics for the past few decades.

[@michaeldeierhoi4096]

The only reason the US is gaining population is because of immigration. Otherwise the growth rate is below the replacement rate or fertility rate for the country. Fertility rate must be above 2.1 for a population to increase. Not counting immigration the fertility rate is below 2.1. 1.62 according to several sites online. Some countries in Europe, South Korea and others are even lower.

[@TrainsFerriesFeet]

If I'm not mistaken, if you work remotely in a different state from where your office is located, most states will require you pay income tax in the state where your job is based. This isn't universal, but it is common.

[@patty_g7]

It’s not common. I know many remote workers as a software engineer, and all of them paid income taxes based on the state they lived in

[@RedScareClair]

NC expects you to claim income made in other states - it might only be if you didn't pay taxes to that state but I forget off hand. What I do remember is that if you buy goods in a non sales tax state, NC expects you to pay them the taxes lol

[@fredholley6248]

@@RedScareClair VA too

[@robynkolozsvari]

the Bay Area is not sun belt. SoCal is sun belt, but the Bay Area just doesn't fit into the same pattern as the true sun belt cities.

[@charleswillams9501]

Wish you said what percentage Oklahoma grew

[@rogerpenske2411]

A population decrease puts downward pressure on demand and prices.

[@ebrim5013]

Population loss is very toxic to a society. You also start having to deal with a dwindling resource base and less investment. A major headache for places that has experienced loss is that you still have the roads and infrastructure to support a larger population, letting it rot isn’t great, but you have fewer and fewer people to pay for it. When places start shrinking more and more people start leaving too which only makes the problems worse. Never forget that your wages are a “price” for someone else. In a way it’s like inflation. You always kind of want a little bit, but just not so much that you notice it. Deflation actually ends up being catastrophic for any period of time and rapid growth can also be challenging. Humans like slow and steady.

[@texasflood1295]

@@ebrim5013 There are a lot of people in the US who need to read this comment, especially the last sentence.

[@michaelmilitello5644]

Population decrease puts a lot pressure to reduce government spending. We won’t have the tax base to support government spending like Medicare and especially social security.

[@rogerpenske2411]

@@michaelmilitello5644 Hallelujah! The vote, buying scandal of the last century gone in a heartbeat! Social Security and Medicare are only going, broke because they are Ponzi schemes. They’re never was, and never will be, in separate account, lockbox, or whatever you wanna call it. Those collecting get paid by the newcomers coming in. Can you say Bernie Madoff?

[@thomasmcroy1756]

West Virginia's unpopularity seems surprising. For all the fuss people make about moving out west to take advantage of amazing topography and outdoor stuff, they could find alot of the same features in WV. Mountains, ski resorts, miles and miles of mtb and hiking trails, kayaking, motocross, hunting. I live in Oregon but somehow WV seems more wild and untouched. Obviously there are social and economic issues to overcome but what state doesn't have that?

[@Cart-w8z]

Sounds like you’ve never been to West Virginia….. not a lot of opportunities unless you are a remote worker

[@margefoyle6796]

Having been to both, Oregon - and I mean anywhere in Oregon - is a no brainer. Don't get me wrong, WV is drop dead gorgeous. But that's all it is.

[@toddwebb7521]

If you don't want to mine coal there's approximately zero jobs besides that that are better than minimum wage retail or fastfood.

[@thomasmcroy1756]

You guys are proving my point. For a state that is basically 100 percent mountains, WV's outdoor leisure industry is sporadic. Look at NC or Tennessee or even Arkansas, arguably Americas mtb capital. WV has something none of those states have tho, lots of snow. Davis is starting to get the message and so is Elkins. Good video Kyle.

[@GeographyKing]

West Virginia is a beautiful state with surprisingly few opportunities to enjoy it relative to the potential areas of interest. There has only been a small amount of land set aside as parks or wilderness. There's always been the mentality that "there might be coal there" so don't protect it. New River Gorge just became a National Park a few years ago. It was a "National Scenic River" before, but it could've/should've been a NP 100 years ago. The younger generation is more interested in protecting the wilderness of the state, but coal is still king in WV even into 2025.

[@johndodson8464]

NW Arkansas is Ozarks. NE Alabama is Appalachia.

[@BradThePitts]

Hey Kyle! Your audio is out of snyc - AGAIN.

[@Fusako8]

I think Oregon is more of a "correction" than anything else. (And I suspect that most of the loss is in Portland, and the east side suburbs) For a while, Oregon was one of the most desirable places to move to, but we didn't really have sufficient available housing for all the people wanting to move here. Then we had the George Floyd protests every night for over a year.

[@vincentfalcone9218]

Portland was a West coast paradise in the 90's/00's. Californians moved there like crazy. Then prices and crime went through the roof.

[@thomasmcroy1756]

Multnomah Co lost population but everyone probably just moved to Clackamas and Washington Co.

[@clayton97330]

​@@vincentfalcone9218happens wherever California's go

[@kjhuang]

The George Floyd protests only affected downtown Portland though right?

[@clayton97330]

@kjhuang I believe because of them Portland started no cash bail and the BLM-backed DA quit prosecuting. Simultaneously, oregon legalized all drugs. It was a perfect storm.

[@micheledaniels6409]

Delawarean here and I can say that New Yorkers are everywhere in my state now. Its actually rather annoying

[@j.s.7335]

A couple of other factors perhaps causing people to not want to have kids during covid are health safety reasons and the difficulty of raising children during covid. It's ridiculous that we talk about shrinking population as being bad. If economists worry that places aren't growing, that just means we have a flawed economic model. We need to shrink population to respond to changing world climates. Also, did it bug anyone lese that AL and CT are so off center?

[@clintonrice525]

In our heavily politicized world, the big question that emerges with these changes, at least for me, is: what do these sorts of changes mean for swing states especially, and others at the state level? If Arkansas is getting its growth in those northwest cities while other areas are shrinking, that has the potential to purpleize the state’s culture, probably not so much as to turn it blue, but enough to move the mix of state congress seats toward the center. Meanwhile, with AZ and NV having new people move in and their mix already so tightly balanced, there are good arguments for people on both sides of the fulcrum to want to move there-urban job opportunities and sun belt warmth. Thanks for the video; interesting info all around!

[@timsimmons5190]

And in the southern states our population growing and its not because of the immigrants.