Survivorship Bias

[@Fede_uyz]

"As per my research, no one has died ever. We asked 25k people and found out 100% of them are alive"

[@genialdragon4843]

Conclusion: death is subjective

[@Fede_uyz]

@@genialdragon4843 death is a myth perpetusted by Big Coffin to sell coffins

[@mortomes7063]

In my study, conducted between 9 pm and 3 am, I have concluded we will live in perpetual darkness.

[@Hans-gb4mv]

But what about those that did not respond?

[@venkideshk2413]

@@mortomes7063 by the way, artic region has a different story to tell.

[@RJStockton]

"If the plane comes back, and it's got bullet damage. . . then, yeah, good on ya." Literally the words of the Australian Air Force Training Manual.

[@snrsctmark1]

I read the quoted phrase with ozzyman's voice. I had a good laugh at it.

[@DirkusTurkess]

I believe it says "she'll be right" in the manual.

[@stemd2503]

They have Air force in Australia, why?

[@alexthomas6602]

@@stemd2503 because we still need to fuck people up and our navy and army had too much money

[@DeathBean89]

@@stemd2503 Why does America have an Air Force?

[@ferulebezel]

They had a similar epiphany in WWI when the hospitals saw more head injuries after they gave the soldiers helmets.

[@GrassTalk4202]

Another good example of how confusing statistics can be, most soldiers who had head injuries before helmets would inevitably perish making the number of “injuries” not actual injuries but deaths. By the time helmets became ubiquitous of course an injury to the head wouldn’t be nearly as severe, chances of survival were much higher. So head injuries rather than death were much more prevalent once helmets were implemented.

[@glenmosier8644]

@@GrassTalk4202 I think that's what the OP was implying.

[@boomtaylor8297]

I think the original comment is good but I didn't fully comprehend so thanks grasstalk4202 for further explaining it lol

[@archockencanto1645]

@@GrassTalk4202 No shit sherlock, that's what he said.

[@salender4683]

@@archockencanto1645 take a chillpill bro

[@gareththompson2708]

This is one of my favorites. I also enjoy the example of steel helmets in WW1. When steel helmets were first introduced in the British army there was a sudden massive spike in head wounds. They figured the helmets must be making the men too confident in exposing their heads, and they were nearly withdrawn from service. Fortunately a competent statistician was able to point out why there was a spike in head wounds. Before the helmets were introduced anyone who was hit in the head by a bit of artillery shrapnel would have been killed. With the helmets they were surviving to be listed as having head wounds.

[@tempo5366]

I’m not sure about the British Army, but in the German Army both was true. People initially thought that the helmet was bulletproof, which made them stick out their head out of the trench and get shot. Same for the plane right? You don’t know if some parts of the plane are just less likely to get hit (for example the nose) or if those planes that get shot don’t come back. In reality it’s usually a combination of these factors.

[@taylorminton1056]

Another massive change in wounds in military history is when units started getting issued field tourniquets. This is about from the 80s onward and particularly in the war on terror, where close explosions like IEDs go off all the time. Severe damage/loss of limb used to result in a lot more death than it does now. Rapidly used tourniquets from every single soldiers' IFAC meant that we were getting a lot more WIA soldiers with a limb gone, where before the massive blood loss from a lost limb usually ends up with a KIA.

[@46metube]

Oh, the stupid simplicity of it all!

[@lawrencedoliveiro9104]

Related to that is the study of ancient human remains. In cultures that developed agriculture, you see a general deterioration in the physical condition of the skeletons, with an increase in chronic health problems. Whereas among hunter-gatherer societies, the skeletons show individuals with higher average fitness. The obvious conclusion is that the agricultural lifestyle is not good for your health. But in fact, what it means is that those who would have been at a serious, even fatal, physical disadvantage in a hunter-gatherer society were more likely to survive and continue to be productive in an agricultural society.

[@46metube]

@@lawrencedoliveiro9104 niice summary . Thanks👍🏻

[@ragerancher]

It's like the parachute joke. "Are your parachutes safe?" "Well nobody has come back complaining they didn't work"

[@alexhill4308]

Laughs in wingsuit

[@ladenbin]

Actually there are people who survived

[@PNolandS]

Or like when the British implemented helmets into their army, and their army hospitals saw a significant increase in head injuries.

[@eindus7269]

i remember there was that sas guy

[@LuminousLead]

If we increased our testing I bet we would see a rise in Coronavirus cases.

[@aidanhill5586]

"Bullets" "Anyone wanna be more specific?" " *ICE* "

[@theedwardian]

ICE BOOLET?

[@Mr_Makina]

There's always one in class...

[@Jebu911]

I mean I guess if he thought it was some high altitude flying where the plane just starts freezing who knows.

[@onbored9627]

@@Jebu911 We found another one.

[@alexwhite3959]

Onbored Everyone, don’t be an ass. They’re wrong about it being ice but it was a fine guess.

[@KatarMilak]

This bias was also found when helmets were introduced during WW1. Militaries saw a large spike in the number of head injuries after helmets were issued. The initial conclusion was that helmets caused the injuries, but the truth was that those injuries would have been fatalities without the helmets. The exact same thing happened when it became law to have seatbelts built into cars.

[@fatipocyte2510]

JoshuaOziegbe i mean you can you just need the full set of data. You can’t just look at head injuries you need to see head deaths. You can’t just look at car injuries you need to look are car deaths as well.

[@nahuelleandroarroyo]

When you see a higher Death ratio on british M4s and you find out lads used berets instead of actually protecting stuff

[@GenericHandle01]

@@fatipocyte2510 You should also consider ratio factors for seat belt safety such as the number of drivers, accidents and perhaps even time spent driving.

[@bugrilyus]

something shout "lindybeige" loudly here

[@aradtzin9632]

@@joshuaoziegbe2227 wait how does this relate to seatbelts

[@Geertt]

Man I miss being in high school. Presentations like this where the entire class is basically just having a conversation with the teacher with a few laughs in between are truly unforgettable.

[@ridwan3533]

Remember before covid every 1 week my college have 4 presentation in difference class most of us know how to make answer or just trying to make some bluff or fake answer as well Sometime some of my friends ask a silly question that make us laugh

[@thesambo22]

okay

[@azaz4216]

I miss the spitballs and being called f@gg*t, r*t@rd, and pizza face.

[@historyZZ]

Damn my school was filled with drugs and my teachers were good. I definitely remember a few teachers from my life time. Sucks teachers aren't all made the same

[@aliberkozderya3112]

@@phi_meson the funny thing is that's actually not how Newton's third law works at all. The action/reaction applies to forces, not energy. So even in the case of a gun where the recoil is caused by nothing else but the bullet, the bullet will actually have more energy than the recoil! That's because the same force is applied in both directions but, the bullet experiences the force over a longer distance i.e. approximately the length of the barrel. Work done on a particle is equal to force times distance, and work means the energy that is delivered to the particle. The gun on the other hand moves a smaller distance than the length of the barrel, so even if the force is the same the energy delivered to the gun by the recoil is smaller than the bullets energy. Your teacher did not only get the reality wrong, they also got the theory wrong. They ended up teachin people false physics.

[@poorlittlesheep4098]

I remember my grandpa explaining this to me when I was little. "You're only annoyed by losing one of your socks. Because if you lose a pair, you won't notice you lost them."

[@samobee5988]

Poor Little Sheep I always notice when I’m running low on socks

[@UCannotDefeatMyShmeat]

until I need a damn pair of socks that are missing

[@alangknowles]

And if you only buy black socks (no other colour) then you never even lose a pair.

[@deadfr0g]

Now that’s a sharp grandpa!

[@ze_rubenator]

I wear odd socks, so honestly I wouldn't ever know if lost only one. In fact I'm pretty sure I have plenty of single ones because I'll throw out single socks when they're worn out.

[@joelmarriner487]

Similar case with the introduction of helmets. When they got added they saw a spike in head related injuries such as concussion. Was it because soldiers felt more brave and were poking their heads in dangerous places? No. It's because previously, without helmets, soldiers would have died from the same shrapnel and debris that now only causes head injuries. And deaths aren't counted as head injuries.

[@Hobbitfeet52]

Joel Marriner was just about to comment this xD

[@kevingooley9628]

@@Hobbitfeet52 same here. Glad u checked first.

[@billcipher779]

And soldiers who would have been shot in the head are protected by the helmet, which can slam back and give them a head injury, while still preventing deathz

[@peacechan4500]

We need to remember this bias always, especially in a time of crisis

[@hrvojebartulovic7870]

An interesting question is ' why the parachutists wear the helmets!?'!?!? And the surprising answer is: it's not the parachutists who wear the helmets, it's that the helmets wear parachutists!!! To o prove it, just listen to this true, life story: Two helmets were drinking in a bar. One was shaking and binge drinking. The other one asked: - what's wrong, what's happened? - well, I was jumping with a parachute, as usual, but this time the chute didn't open! I yanked the spare one but it failed, as well!!! -... and? What happened?? - well, luckily, before I jumped, I strapped on a parachutist, just in case! If I hadn't, I would have directly hit the ground!!

[@ethribin4188]

Introducing Helmets to the army significantly increased soldiers in hospitals with head injuries. So much so they missed the part where death from head injuries went down by the same amount non-leathal head injuries went up by.

[@deltaxcd]

LOL improving healthcare also significantly increases number of sick people

[@fabianbandaiii3304]

HA

[@johnpotts8308]

Funnily enough, this actually came up when I was LARPing. Because Head hits were potentially dangerous (even with padded weapons), the organisers decided that head hits "didn't count" so there was no point aiming a blow there. The effect? Head injuries TRIPLED. Partly because people stopped wearing helmets and partly because people put their heads in the way of blows ("Head parry") to avoid taking weapon damage (yes, they took actual injuries to prevent fake injuries)!

[@superstriker412]

@@johnpotts8308 honestly I’d probably subconsciously do the same

[@addisonvigil163]

The helmet bit is fascinating. There was actually a point where the British were discussing taking helmets away because they thought they were dangerous.

[@ConstantUNTILisnt]

Forget bias, look at this teacher. He took the attention of the whole class by being so informal. Its like he genuinly wants to share something cool with them and not teach them something. Thats how teachers should be. He didnt call anyone by name or make them uncomfortable, force them to share opinions, or even make them stand up when they speak, making them most comfortable to engage in the discussion. Casually asks them to share their views if they have any, and remarks on their response then proceeds to take the lead. So informal yet absolutely effective. I wish I could be a teacher like him.

[@musicenjoyer8605]

He did say their names though. Sharon disagreed with the rest of the class and he said her name

[@zornuxzornux8746]

@@musicenjoyer8605 I think they’re saying that he didn’t call out anyone who didn’t volunteer to participate. If someone didn’t raise their hand or say something, he didn’t go out of his way to call them out or mention them.

[@NomadUrpagi]

He is still a failure to his Asian parents.

[@spacewolfcub]

This is how teachers are… Isn’t it? I guess I’m just lucky, then.

[@OpRaven-62]

@@musicenjoyer8605 *Sophie

[@Valcuda]

This reminds me of a joke a friend once told me: "fun fact, if you ask people who've played Russian rulet if they survived, 100% of them will say yes. Thus, Russian rulet isn't dangerous"

[@zedx50]

roulette* but yes, you're right.

[@memesfromdeepspace1075]

Hold up

[@bigtrav2629]

Good comment and good attempt at spelling that word

[@wectyler3817]

there are no sore losers in russian roulette

[@luizpaulovialgoes252]

This is the best exemple to survivorship bias I've ever seen! 100X better than the example in the class itself! Thank You!

[@facemelter2277]

Buy a man an plane ticket, he will fly for a day Throw a man from a plane, he will fly for the rest of his life

[@nathandamaren2093]

Technically not wrong, mankind is just poorly built for flying.

[@AceDan-gc9po]

Nathan DaMaren that’s the joke

[@Whatismusic123]

What if the plane crashes and the man that got the ticket dies

[@Whatismusic123]

What if he gets killed on the plane?

[@Tailspin80]

You give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. But you teach a man to fish - saved yourself a fish haven't you?

[@fishyc150]

When the british introduced steel helmets in WW1 head injuries went UP as a result. But that's because the injury would have been counted as killed before. Same with crash helmets on motorcycles... more people got neck injuries. But those people would also have been counted as killed.

[@zorkan111]

That's a slightly different problem from the survivorship bias.. It has to do with how you characterize / categorize data points. Practically, death is a subset of injury, and if you treat it like that in your statistics, injuries won't go up. However, if you've got one column named "injuries" and another column named "deaths" with no overlaps, you've got a flawed system and your injury rates will go up if you introduce measures that decrease the likelihood of you dying after suffering an injury.

[@Ramsay58]

When crash helmets were made compulsory in 1973, as well as neck injuries increasing, the rider death rate also increased - perhaps due to broken necks or people increasing their speed due to a false sense of security, but it's hard to be sure as it's said 88% riders already wore a helmet by choice. The same was not true when car seat belts were made compulsory in 1983 and car death rates immediately fell.

[@ckmishn3664]

You refer to this: kzbin.info/www/bejne/Z3q0dmOrj7qAr9U

[@allangibson8494]

The Germans did issue bullet proof helmets to snipers. All WW1 coal scuttle helmets had the attachment points for the additional armor required.

[@nicktombs1876]

Also soldiers were under the impression that the helmet made their heads safe enough to not have worry so much about snipers.

[@urchinsify]

To simplify if anyone still lost.. You put armor on where there are no dots. The reason being: The planes who returned and gave this data, obviously survived DESPITE being shot at where the dots are. Those dots means you can get shot at those areas and still survive, planes who got shot at other spots did not survive to give the data.. Hence the bias. The dots represent strong points, empty spots represent weak points.

[@vladtheemailer3223]

Not quite correct. They plane cannot carry enough armor to protect the cockpit and engines. The study was to calculate the survivability of the plane given x amount of damage.

[@NickTheNewbie]

Yeah it's not exactly "strong points" and "weak points", but moreso "places you can survive being shot" vs "places you can't"

[@NaraOfCambodia]

I don't know a lot about planes but Get shot in engine or cockpit and that plane is going down. The back seat should be for gunner so if the ammo get lit, down you go.

[@chriwehl7173]

Actually mostly correct, but not entirely. The parts that got shot werent strong enough, but non vital. In okd planes used for bombing, the material of the wings was consisting of wood and in some cases even paper, allowing bullets to just rip through and the plane being practically unfazed. Tho, those planes were Doppeldecker planes and FAR from steong enough to carry armor, just about strong enough to carry a single bomb, a pilot and a light machinegun with a single belt of ammunition. So if you got hit in the engine, the pilot or one of the main support beams, you were right on f*cked. But there are pictures of planes being shredded by bullets and savely landing.

[@NaraOfCambodia]

Yeah, the dots are non-fatal hits. The one without were fatal. They aren't just strong or weak point.

[@Vuskenicht]

This man’s really tricked me into being in class on my free time. Very interesting, though.

[@Heroasteral]

Yeah I'm wondering when the next lesson is. Do we have homework now?

[@honkmandeluxe]

If only our education systems were good enough for every lesson to be enjoyable

[@grimble4564]

The cool thing about the internet is that you can access some of the best teachers in the world while avoiding the worst. If only school systems understood that it's incredibly important to educate people well, and that we're way more likely to care if it's actually fun and interesting.

[@VoidFame]

Hopefully he made you think outside the box.

[@dangerousman4071]

This should be the standard test for teachers.

[@RedSilencer]

"Remember this gap in the data? This is a classic thing we see in restaurant reviews!" OH MY GOD THEYRE ALL DEAD

[@amentet]

xD

[@NiramBG]

I'm sad I can't give this comment more than one like!

[@Chrischn89]

PUT ARMOR AROUND THE FOOD!

[@bl1398]

Maybe the plates just need to fly higher

[@Handlesaredumb69]

It's like how KZbin only does thumbs up/down. It's either I like it or hate, no in between

[@Jakecmuir]

The energy of this class. Man. What a great teacher.

[@Flubbred]

@Straight Razor Daddy Well mathematicians normally don't. People that know math aren't that good at literature or history, and people that know those two aren't that good at math/sciences. So it's actually normal that he does not know history.. same with my professors.

[@aseemsharma1427]

What if the only classes with high energy are the ones you get to see on KZbin.

[@bgr225]

@@aseemsharma1427 I see what you did there

[@victormeas450]

Straight Razor Daddy how so?

[@bigchum3984]

Survivorship bias. Classes with low energy don’t make it online to KZbin.

[@BradleyG01]

You can really tell this guy’s students are engaged and actually enjoy being there. He does an incredible job at what he does.

[@AriaHarmony]

Survivorship bias! You're not hearing from the ones sleeping at the back! Haha just joking, if any of them really are sleeping in the class of the best math teacher ever then they're missing out.

[@stevezelaznik5872]

"The plane is missing cause it got all of its shit torn up." That student deserves extra credit.

[@pronounjow]

I read this comment just as I heard that.

[@Aaron-sl9ov]

And this is how you create a great learning environment. You don't chastise someone willing to contribute and you don't dismiss their thoughts because of the way they articulate them. But you do, kindly, remind them of their appropriateness.

[@F1fan4eva]

Steve Zelaznik why extra credit? Give her the credit that is due, but maybe pull her aside individually after the class to gently remark about the inappropriate language? Or are we at the point in society where we idolize people who swear at the most unnecessary of times just because it sounds "cool" and rebellious?

[@Ken.-]

@@F1fan4eva Curse words are just made up nonsense. Grow up. Nobody ever got hurt by using them.

[@lifeofphyraprun7601]

f1fanforever I thought that was supposed to be a joke.

[@skudzer1985]

Every school on the planet needs at least 10 teachers like this guy.

[@Cheasle2]

every teacher at my school is like this...

[@jonathanallard2128]

What if a small school has just 5 teachers total?

[@KougaJ7]

Yes now let's clone him or something, because I don't see how it's going to happen otherwise. I'm sorry to break your dreams.

[@thecanadiankiwibirb4512]

Cheesle2 Really? You are super lucky to have such good teachers

[@mud2479]

@@jonathanallard2128 well the op said at least ten... so they would have to hire ten and rotate them or something, or maybe they can have 2 teachers on each class.

[@199NickYT]

This guy is an EXCELLENT teacher. Engaging, but also being able to guide the conversation exactly where it should go.

[@nathandamaren2093]

Definitely. I would have loved to have had him as my statistics and data managment teacher in grade twelve.

[@abechung4738]

Hahaha he is amazing! I enjoyed his presentation performance. Theatrical, almost. Odd realizing my early childhood teachers were giving amazing body language performance and presentations that were as meaningful and learnful as possible to young learners.

[@sethierot7067]

Haha i wrote the same but in worse xD i agree with your statement.

[@Gongolongo]

He has coronavirus

[@199NickYT]

@@Gongolongo source in one hour or you're reported for slander.

[@jasonpatterson9821]

This is 100% why the "they don't build things like they used to" idea persists. It's only the most strongly constructed buildings/tools/clothing that last long enough to be compared to "modern" items. Nearly all of the old buildings of the world are long gone - poorly constructed from cheap, readily available materials. They did what they needed to do for long enough and then failed.

[@TomSFox]

It’s that and planned obsolescence.

[@scottcantdance804]

@@TomSFox yeah. Planned obsolescence is why people say "they don't build things like they used to". Sure, there have always been lower quality goods that break down as a flaw in their manufacturing. But until recently, business practice was not to build lower quality goods that break down *as a feature of their manufacturing.*

[@damnfreakingsien]

Well said. Only well made products survive the rest of time. Shoddily made ones are forgotten.

[@carl4243]

Yeah, in the car world, this idea also presist, toyota is not really reliable and strong as many people associate it today.

[@edoardoferretti5493]

Or even "the older music is better" way of reason. No, it's just that all the rock punk and metal trash that was largely produced then has now been forgotten

[@nivolord]

Whenever a celebrity says: "Follow your dreams", think of all the people who did and failed, and didn't get the platform to warn you about the hazards.

[@jimihenrik11]

I know a guy whos dream was to be a successful rapper. He always talked about how following your dreams would make you the happiest person and stuff. But he quit his job and lived all miserably. Some other friends who he used to make music with him kept it as a hobby while continuing to be employed. It always seemed to me they where much happier in life. Also they eventually started making a little money on the side with their music.

[@HeavyMetalMouse]

While it is true that you miss 100% of the shots you do not take, it still is a good idea to get good at shooting, and set up a viable target, before you go all in. Don't 'follow you dreams'. *Develop your ambitions."

[@sigmata0]

This is a kind of gambler's bias.

[@probablypragmatic6893]

@@HeavyMetalMouse Developing ambitions is a much healthier take on that term, nice one.

[@tristanstrain9751]

But if you live with regrets about never trying, it's not much better.

[@bellajaid]

"You get shot in any of these places, you don't come back to be a data point." That hit so hard! In my statistics courses and educational survey courses, they hammer it in that every data point in regards to humans are real live people, but none of their warnings hit like that did.

[@Testgeraeusch]

It also undercuts a large amount of statistical evaluation. "Would you like to take part in an evaluation on gender issues?" "Fock off, mate!" "Ok, not data points for this nice gentlehuman over here..." Also, a lot of the correlation diagrams shown in the appendices of papers look like blobs ob points spread all over from 0 to 100% of whatever correlation there might be. At first i thought it was a scientific joke since the axes were labeled "trustworthiness ratings" and "computed trustworthiness", but it was a somewhat serious paper in friggin nature. doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18566-7 The graphics are found on page 5 of the Supplementary Information. What a mess. :/

[@dektarey4024]

I think the bullets hit harder.

[@BillyBob-so9xr]

Great parallel to what’s going on with this plandemic

[@TheNathanchavez96]

Wanna know a fun fact? Too bad, you don't get a choice. Regulations are written in blood.

[@Ben-rz9cf]

luckily i took a statistics class in college that really made us think critically about datasets. one of the craziest takeaways that we actually went over is how global warming actually started with the advent of agriculture and it was more than just incidental that the ice age happened to end around that time.

[@alexandre-guzu]

He's the kind of teacher that encourages you when you get a bad grade.

[@Mister_Clipster]

"Go, do even worse next time!"

[@microz0258]

@@Mister_Clipster lmao i thought it was worded kinda weird too

[@darnit1944]

@@Mister_Clipster "Encourages you TO get bad grades" "Encourage you when you get bad grades" Lmao

[@Stolens87]

I have that experience with teacher for adults a lot! As a child they often kinda... laughed... at mistakes or put you in front of the class for stupid mistakes so that the other learn that it was wrong. As an adult I feel they are better at motivating. Or maybe it is my "school as a child was a pain the ass experience"-bias.

[@christophsteck531]

@@Stolens87 yeah that was probably it kids are ussually worse at handling such things than adults (obviously I suppose)

[@J4CKAL05]

Late to this, but his initial and perceived "mistake" of saying this was from the US Army was, in all likelihood, actually correct. Unless the data was aggregated in the post-war period, it would definitely have come from the US Army Air Corps, since the US Air Force didn't exist under this name until 1947. Just thought I'd point that out for anyone curious. Excellent video, Eddie really has such a good way with him as an educator!

[@bergmann2128]

Scrolled too far for this.

[@lurkinturk4284]

The US army also operates more aircraft than the airforce.

[@NerdsWithFriends]

@@lurkinturk4284 yea I don’t think that’s correct. They definitely don’t fly zero airplanes/helos - but I don’t think they employ more aircraft than the Air Force. I’ll go get to googling though.

[@lurkinturk4284]

@@NerdsWithFriends what were your findings?

[@NerdsWithFriends]

@@lurkinturk4284 So there is remarkably little information that I could find, but everything I did find suggested the numbers were fairly close as far as number of aircraft, but all data I found had air force with the most aircraft. What would be more telling would be missions flown, or how big their flying hour program is, but I did not find any information on that though. I only spent about 20 minutes looking in to it.

[@EpicWolverine]

This guys is a great teacher. Also fun fact: KZbin used to have a 5 star rating system for videos but they saw most people only voted 5 stars or 1 star so they just changed it to like or dislike, like the voluntary bias at the end there.

[@Adi-do2rq]

That's quite smart. Making it binary since those were the only kinds of reviews people would give anyway. So it just gives somewhat more accurate results of what people think. And makes things easier for the user

[@XpVersusVista]

i miss my 5 star system :( the conclusion that it doesn't make a difference is wrong. the difference is only in the decimals, but even if only every 10th person have a non1-or-5 answer it introduced enough variability to differentiate videos on quality. Ever since the like/dislike switch the quality and general content on KZbin drastically changed, because the data is less accurate.

[@viergiesabdapaganini3282]

And then they removed dislike button

[@RGC_animation]

Rest in peace dislikes, you will never be forgotten.

[@CST1992]

Now they've changed it again to remove the dislike count from public view so that people don't dislike a video just because others have disliked it in majority. And also: when you dislike something, "you dislike this video" has been changed to "feedback shared with the creator".

[@NickBrown79]

This reminds me how the thing I'm missing is always in the VERY last place I checked...

[@Tjalve70]

Could this be, because once you find it, you stop looking?

[@NickBrown79]

@@Tjalve70 yep, that is the exact point :). Why would you keep looking after you found something. The item will always be found in the last place you look. :)

[@NickBrown79]

@Elias Håkansson Good idea!! :)

[@gearloose703]

Last place haha... good on you. For me it is statistically also the fist place, the most obvious one, I just don't check thoroughly enough.

[@ian1352]

@JZ's Best Friend Much more often, "I already looked here three times how did I miss it?"

[@edboy484]

One question survey "Are you alive?" My data suggests that nobody has ever died, therefore survivorship bias cannot be real, since everyone surveyed was in fact alive

[@eatenjaguar9854]

Try doing that right now and I can guarantee you that you'll get at least 20 people claiming they aren't alive

[@kyrla]

Then that's sampling/population bias since you've only surveyed alive people

[@elkien3]

@@kyrla *hands dead body clipboard and pencil* helo sir plz fill this out

[@dpatts]

@@kyrla Then so it is with the planes

[@TrentRoogna]

When you have a response that says “no”, will you throw it out as a lie, or entertain the possibility the responder could be a lich?

[@cratecruncher6687]

At 0:08 you were right but changed your answer! Aviators were either in the Army Air Corps or the Navy during the war. Bombers were exclusive to the Air Corps. The Air Force was formally created 9/18/47, two years AFTER WWII ended. Congratulations on 1.65M subscribers and an impressive ability to teach difficult subjects.

[@joeylantis22]

Was looking for this comment!!!

[@shortlivedglory3314]

Came here to say this lol.

[@Aleks24711]

It was actually the US Army Air Forces.

[@88porpoise]

Either term would be appropriate, and Air Corps would be the one that is wrong. The US Army Air Corps became the US Army Air Forces in the summer of 1941, before the US was at war. The US Army Air Forces were and are commonly referred to the "Air Force" and as there is a clear continuity from the US Army Air Corps through the US Air Force, it is reasonable to refer to the entire thing as the "Air Force", much like the Continental Army is commonly referred to as the US Army today.

[@berges104]

Took my comment. figured plenty of people would point out that detail. so close.

[@spazzmaticus1542]

"I was about to say US Army" No you were correct. Air force wasnt around during ww2. The air Corp was the Army.

[@theriptide9461]

Wow here's a cookie for your supreme intellect 🍪

[@spazzmaticus1542]

@@theriptide9461 k

[@o11o01]

Was about to say the same thing. The Air Force formed in 47

[@1115devon]

Exactly

[@ShacoPL]

@@theriptide9461 haha you cant give a cookie over the internet, you are so wacky, silly and funny 🤪

[@gblawrence034]

“If you get shot in any of these places... you don’t come back to be a data point.” Why is this so chilling wtf

[@karlheven8328]

This guy is worrying me he is talking about it as if he was happy about it 😲

[@devin19222]

@@karlheven8328 it's just data you shouldnt get emotional over it otherwise nothing ever gets done about it.

[@pendragonchen]

@@devin19222 Implying that emotions impede action.

[@karlheven8328]

@@devin19222 Yes, Mr. Datapoint :/

[@devin19222]

@@pendragonchen Think of any position where being neurotic is beneficial. If you are a surgeon would another other emotional state other than neutral be beneficial to a surgery you're performing? If you're a solider and your best friend just got shot in a fire fight if you got angry and charged the guy who shot him, or cried over his death would that be beneficial in the current moment? right now in italy if you know you can only take care 80% of the people there would it be beneficial to think of everyone family and loved ones and get empathetic over it knowing every resource wasted on someone who couldn't be saved cost the life of another who could have? The point being in a critical situation emotional thinking has no place. After the dust has settled and there is no more danger, then you have time to mend the matters of the heart and deal with the emotions that otherwise would have only caused harm in the moments that mattered.

[@VictorF0326]

Survey: Will you fill out this survey? Results: 99% said yes.

[@lukemanius]

*100

[@mrperson1324]

lukemanius there would be at least a few trolls. 99% seems high honestly

[@gwivongalois6169]

@@mrperson1324 there is even a "law" for that, everything2.com/title/Lizardman's+Constant

[@DreDredel3]

If you ask one person to fill out the survey, and the person agrees, would that mean 100% of those asked said yes?

[@XpVersusVista]

@@DreDredel3 no, they are not bound to fill out the survey truthfully. if you ask "did you fill out the survey" there are bound to be multiple people who say "no", simply because due to the inherent logic of its clear that they did. they are basically mocking a "only one right answer" question. thus you won't have a 100% yes survey

[@landsproduction6702]

this man explained data bias better than my own stats teacher

[@TheJwwinter]

Those people whose stats teacher explained it better than him did bother to comment on his video.

[@bird3713]

My uncle shared a post on Facebook that said something like “When I was a kid, we drank water out of the hose, went swimming down at the lake, and stayed out until way past dark, and I survived! Repost if you did too!” Whether or not I agreed with the sentiment of the post, I had to comment “Well, too bad the kids who didn’t survive aren’t here to share their view...”

[@sttonep242]

Ugh I hate when old folks say that

[@americantoastman7296]

@@sttonep242 Its such a dumb sentiment as well. "Back then we did more dangerous things than people do today. Those times were better. Because of the needless danger." Like a kid who feels cool for smoking but then dies of lung cancer down the line.

[@lordgarion514]

@@americantoastman7296 The reason it was better is easy to explain. And it's because we *could* do all those things, and much much more. Now if a 6 year old is even allowed outside they have someone right up their ass. No wonder the teens and 20 somethings today are near useless compared to the past. On average, they're horrible to talk to because about all they know is internet and games. And they're even worse to work with because they've almost never exerted themselves for hours straight, and are kinda lazy.

[@commonsense9173]

What a bunch of total wimps in these replies lmfao

[@Evercreeper]

Robert Pruitt you’re being very stereotypical. Plus, you’re combing losers and gamers under one term so please rephrase your statement. Looking forward with working with you! :)

[@paulaswam5909]

If only all teachers were this conclusive. It's a lot easier to understand a topic when the information is express via its use in real world practical situations.

[@YourCrazyDolphin]

If we had to show practical applications for things, most of the K-12 curriculum would be eliminated as it would no longer work.

[@Ryanrichey13]

Critical thinking...

[@SantaFishes101]

@@YourCrazyDolphin so be it! sounds like we have to go the route that a lot of good education systems are...

[@underwaterdick]

Very true. Just a shame he opened with incorrect information. "I wanted to say Army, but it's obviously the air force". No, it was the Army. The US didn't have a standalone "Air Force" in WW2. It was the USAAF not USAF.

[@bruceU]

God shut up

[@friendgray1]

I remember when I was in Year 6 and we were learning about WW2- everyone in my class was shocked when they realised that just about everybody’s grandad had been in and survived WW2. It took some people a lot of convincing that the people who died probably didn’t have a chance to have kids!

[@sevilnatas5431]

yeah my great granddad died in the war with no children and somehow i am here?

[@Spartan-mv6om]

@@sevilnatas5431 Well that's because you, and many others, are an exception. However, a good amount of soldiers were relatively young, and never had the pleasure of having children.

[@raezor82]

@@sevilnatas5431 Mine originally survived, but then I tested the Grandfather Paradox.

[@r5t6y7u8]

Half-true with me. My grandfather signed up for WW1 in 1918, contracted tuberculosis in boot camp, was sent home, got married and had my Mom. But the TB wrecked his health and he was in VA hospitals for weeks at a time. He had a stroke and died at 42.

[@WookieChef]

True. But WWII was also the time proportionally (and in terms of sheer numbers) that the most people served in the military in some capacity. You just simply had more people serving as soldiers back then too.

[@owenmcclelland3573]

Love this video, one thing to say is that as a history nerd, the us airforce was not its own branch until 1947. During WW2 the closest thing to that was the army airforce. Still awesome video

[@jarnold1789]

Came looking for this comment, nice

[@williamneve3048]

I was thinking the same thing and looked for this comment in case I needed to make it!

[@jamo9008]

Yeah I noticed he incorrected himself lol. Came here to say Army Air Corps

[@StuffBudDuz]

All surveys are biased toward the type of people who are willing to fill out surveys.

[@zuzakurowska8665]

Actually, fun fact: in my methodology class I learned that there is actually a group of characteristics of people who fill out surveys, since as you've mentioned not everyone does them! And those characteristics get divided into three groups, based on how common they are!

[@ascensionblade]

@@zuzakurowska8665 really? what are they? or can you tell me some words to search for to learn more, please 😘

[@nicholascarr6251]

​@@zuzakurowska8665 Yeah I'm also interested in the three different group types. Could you expand on that?

[@zuzakurowska8665]

@@ascensionblade ​ @Nicholas Carr Okay, so it's going to be a little longer comment! And actually those three categories are divided based on how well-documented they are (sorry for a slight mistake in the first comment, I just checked my notes) So, the first group: - Higher education - Belongs to a higher socio-economical group, people in this group usually have a higher societal status - Higher intelligence level - Higher level of a social approval - Higher level of socialization Next, the second group contains six characteristics that are less-documented: - Higher need for stimulation (especially visible in studies on stress or sleep) - Higher tendency to look for unconventional actions (i.e. sexual ones) - Women tend to be volunteers more often (except the studies on stress, where men are volunteering more often) - Lower level of authoritarian behavior - Volunteers tend to be Jewish rather than protestants, and Protestants rather than Catholics (based on studies from the US) - Lower level of conformity (except women in clinical trials, where it's the opposite) Third group contains characteristics that are documented least often: - Are from smaller cities (especially with questionnaire surveys) - Are more interested in religion (also mostly in questionnaires) - Represent higher level of altruism - Are more self-disclosing - They show lower level of adaptation (when talking about studies on medications, hypnosis or just general medical studies) - Are younger (unless the study is done in laboratory/is more medical, and women take part in it) If you have any questions, or something doesn't sound right (cue obligatory "English isn't first language") let me know!

[@prind142]

@@zuzakurowska8665 This is why I think surveys would be less bias if they bribed people to fill out surveys, which is kinda wild.

[@NicksStuff]

Ted talks about "the habits of successful people" do exactly the same, they forget to ask the habits of the people who failed, or they would notice some of them are very similar

[@steffeeH]

It's true that it's unhealthy to only talk about the habits of successful people and neglect to include the habits of unsuccessful people to give a more full set of data - however assuming those habits would be similar, based on the very same lack of data regarding the habits of unsuccessful people would be just as bad. Are those habits similar? We won't know until we ask those who failed, and so we can't assume they're similar either - we can only say that we don't know yet.

[@maxentirunos]

There is no better recent example of survivor bias than successful people. Whatever is in industry or arts, they always are interviewed and give advice that they followed but don't get how lucky they got or born into the position they were. But the lie of hard work = success must be uphold so most people don't get the scam

[@RSchep2]

@@maxentirunos hear, hear.

[@christopherburgdorff]

Do you want to know how to wake up at 5, meditate, journal, spend time with successful people, and ONLY achieve mediocrity? Buy my book for $29.99 and I will tell you!

[@Mrtheunnameable]

Just stop doing everything the successful people arent doing.

[@Ky-Nas]

This guy's a good teacher. Look at how he's actively including the students and working the lesson off of their responses. The flexibility of this teaching style is great and more folks should use it.

[@m1ner_va489]

Bias. We do not see how he is like when the cameras are off. He *seems* like a great teacher tho.

[@152JLS]

M1NER_ VA The fact that his students are so engaged is a good sign that this teaching style is consistent. Need more teachers like this guy around the world.

[@eliakimrodrigues]

They could all be acting for this video. He is overly enthusiastic.

[@AznUzer]

M1NER_ VA I’m pretty sure he records every single lesson

[@SS-pq9ci]

@@eliakimrodrigues Well they would have be really good and patient actors cuz this guy has a TON of footage.

[@johncodeinaire137]

This is the best explanation of survivorship bias that I've come across. Both the description from Eddie and the questions and answers from the students helped to make this explanation really striking and clearly understood. Thanks everyone!

[@KXSocialChannel]

We went to the streets and did a survey to find out how much of the population has agoraphobia. Surprisingly, we didn’t find any.

[@VictorKDurand]

Wow ok ! This point hits the nail on the head imo. Excellent analogy.

[@vive335]

SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

[@MegaAgamon]

Also this is a reason why Cancer rates have skyrocketed in the past few years. We have gotten so good at treating other illnesses and increased both the length and the quality of life, that people get old enough to develop cancer and not die from some other cause.

[@swagcandy2576]

That makes sense, but since the old people who get cancer likely had kids already, passing on their genes, their kids are more likely to get cancer once old. So that cancer is unlikely to be cured by natural selection

[@zacharywilliams2]

Yeah almost everyone is going to get cancer eventually if they live long enough. Its almost inevitable.

[@Tjalve70]

And to add to your point: Vaccines cause cancer. Now you probably think I'm an anti-vaxxer. But I'm not. And what I'm saying is still a fact. Without vaccines, a lot of people don't live to a ripe old age. Because they die from various diseases that we now have vaccines against. With vaccines, they do live to a ripe old age. And so they eventually develop cancer, and they die from cancer. So vaccines cause cancer, because they make people live long enough to develop cancer.

[@ppsarrakis]

@@Tjalve70 this sounds like a thesis that a trash newspaper is gonna use as a headline then my mother the Karen is gonna tell me "Vaccines cause cancer"

[@hk_802]

@@Tjalve70 Same with the "Eating ice cream increases the chance of a shark attack." Weather is warm, more people at the beach. Since its hot there, people eat more ice cream. Since there's more people in the water at the beach, there's a higher chance of someone getting bit by a shark. Gotta love the correlation by association, lol.

[@brutusvonmanhammer]

My favorite example of Survivor Bias has to do with the construction of buildings, in particular very old buildings from long in the past that survive to this day. Historians would study the methods used to construct these buildings and then assume that this was how all buildings were constructed in that particular era. The problem was, they were getting a very stilted representation of how buildings were built because the ones that survived were constructed extremely well with very high quality materials; whereas the vast majority of buildings were poorly constructed using inferior materials, which is why they no longer exist

[@glenmatthes8839]

People do this with many things when they say "they don't make'm like they used to." Yeah, your grandma's harvest gold fridge from 1962 that's still around is the one that just happened to survive this long while millions of others did not. People really need to learn about survivorship bias.

[@Matt-yg8ub]

Which was perfectly obvious. I hate when people assume that there’s a massive Blindspot in every single industry that has anything even remotely related to a survivorship bias, and therefore everyone must be completely mentally and capable of understanding that the only 2000 year old structures that you see are going to be the well-built ones that survived 2000 years compared to the not well-built ones that didn’t survive 2000 years. Duh!

[@brutusvonmanhammer]

@user-gc5tq7zt7z sheeeeeeesh...touched a nerve with you, brother. You should work out why this triggers hatred in your heart. It is really REALLY is not that big of a deal. Go in peace ✌️

[@obsidiansiriusblackheart]

My fav example of survivor bias are happy trans adults

[@nadarith1044]

@@obsidiansiriusblackheart There are now studies that point towards sex reassignment not being a perfect treatment for the dysphoria and its symptoms yes, but that doesn't mean that its ineffective if that's what you're suggesting

[@gtkng89]

When people use the "pull yourself up by your bootstraps", I always think of this explanation. It's easy to see the 1 that achieved it, but you don't see the other 99 that fell by the wayside.

[@BenjaminRegen]

Great point

[@seedy80]

Or the 98 that never really tried.

[@IliterateAshole]

Another version of the same idea is You can’t pull yourself up by your bootstraps if you don’t have boots.

[@Berelore]

Good thing there's nothing stopping you from failing 99 times and trying again...

[@MB-sq7yn]

@@Berelore If every failure means you don't get to eat for the day, then there very much is something stopping you from failing 99 times.

[@OfficialMaxBox]

2:25 - When the student leads with "think about it", Eddie gives a great big grin. Must be one of the best phrases for a teacher to hear.

[@nemishasharma5737]

I thought it was a stupid thing to say to your teacher.

[@pepperoniboy57]

didnt expect to find you here

[@cadunkus]

He's probably here on the same reason we all are: KZbin Recommendations.

[@PauaP]

I did not expect to see you here tbh...

[@23Magistere]

@@nemishasharma5737 To me, she's saying it to her class ?

[@katyungodly]

Reminds me of when people say “all the plastic surgery I’ve ever seen looked awful!” Well you don’t notice plastic surgery if it looks good/real, so you’re only seeing and remembering the bad ones 😊

[@luuketaylor]

In that regard, PS is just like CGI :)

[@dydlus]

I mean, anything that isn't live footage is CGI, so yeah.

[@ZackMathissa]

@Some characters aren't allowed I can't think what's real anymore on movies nowadays lmao.

[@4f52]

Plastic surgery is shitty thing to do anyways

[@andhieyusuf7008]

Same as music. There's no such thing as an era where all the music is always good: instead, the best song of a certain era survived longer than the lower quality songs.

[@SilencedButNotForgotten]

He got the Award for Best Australian teacher 2019 if I remember correctly. Absolutely deserved.

[@Mega-P71]

From this small clip 100%

[@RB-mm7ce]

how do they check all the teachers in the country ?

[@_-_-__-__-_-_]

@@RB-mm7ce state/gov email

[@illuminate_day]

@@RB-mm7ce voluntary bias huh?

[@RB-mm7ce]

@@illuminate_dayI don't know specifics on their methodology, but it's very unlikely the found the "best" teacher, more like "the most popular, in a good manner", it's obviously still an important and worthy award.

[@Simeeow]

Our dwarves engineers have come up with a new armour design.

[@mortache]

"Stone age" is also a result of survivorship bias imo. Wooden tools were being used for far longer, but very few wooden tools actually survive

[@TheBryanScout]

Just like Minecraft

[@cristobaljofre260]

Now that I think about it, it makes a lot of sense

[@Keaze]

The whole history is survivorship bias, really.

[@isaiahdaniels5643]

Hmm.. I always assumed that the age was defined by the hardest ore material/ most valuable production.

[@mortache]

@@isaiahdaniels5643 No, its determined by the most common finds. Like, iron was still available in bronze age, even to ancient Egyptians who took it from meteorites. Mild steel was also available in the Iron age.

[@gzer0x]

Similar WWII story: there’s a famous book about how “deadly” it was to be in an American Sherman tank. The guy who wrote it was a tank-recovery specialist in the war. That means every single tank he encountered was a dead tank. What really happened was he only encountered tanks that were messed up and assumed every other tank was too. Furthermore: he compared decimated US tanks to disabled Nazi tanks, which is important because when Germans bailed from a tank, the US stopped shooting at it because the Germans were retreating and couldn’t go back to repair it. Germans meanwhile kept shooting dead US tanks so they couldn’t be repaired, because Americans were advancing and could retrieve dead tanks. For years people accepted it as gospel because they were viewing incomplete data

[@shawnr771]

Also many more German tanks were destroyed by close air support than by tank on tank conflict. Advances in communication technology and tactics allowed ground personel to control air attacks.

[@Dragonite_Knight]

@@shawnr771 Actually air power wasn't as effective on tanks as we think. Tests by the British showed that it took a fighter craft numerous passes to even hit a tank with an anti-tank rocket. And that was a stationary tank in the middle of an open field. In real combat the tank would evade and put machine gun fire near the fighter to make it worry about dodging. IIRC, according to the Chieftan, that the reason that aircraft is remembered at being effective against tanks is that when they found a tank and couldn't identify what killed it, aircraft was the default to record it as. Of course this doesn't mean that aircraft were useless against tanks. They were much more effective against the softer targets that make up the tank's supply line and a tank without fuel or ammo is useless. Also a tank focused on dodging an air attack isn't focused on enemy tanks or infantry with anti-tank weapons.

[@shawnr771]

@@Dragonite_Knight Thank you. I stand corrected.

[@t1e6x12]

Yes

[@dac5782]

Get ready for the people trying to defend "Death Traps" as valid, if they do find themselves here

[@mud213]

My grandfather was actually involved in recording this data during WWII. He was a recent physicist graduate at the time. When he told me this story, he basically gave this same sort of speech and asked me where to put the armor too. It's so cool to see this being used in classrooms :D

[@seanmatthewking]

My grandad is represented by the space without red dots 😔 Jk jk But he is dead.

[@garrettdowd7991]

This is a chapter from Jordan Ellenburg’s “The Power of Mathematical Thinking” talking about an Austrian mathematician helping the war effort and teaching how math can show us how to approach solving problems. Brilliant stuff.

[@reiroll5]

I love the interest he cultivates in his students. Not only participation, but it shows he creates a safe place for his students when they have the courage to speak up with solitary viewpoints. He also hears and validates student comments mid-lecture. I think that’s great when students feel like they are engaging in true intellectual conversation. It must stick in their heads and further their education far more than a passive seminar.

[@myphone-ph4hh]

I think this is a tutorial not a lecture.

[@weefyeet6177]

@@myphone-ph4hh it's a lecture

[@myphone-ph4hh]

@@weefyeet6177 it looks like the type of tutorial i had in Australia when i was studying. Lectures were held in big rooms with about 200 people and tuts were held in small classroom like settings like the one here but fair enough, i dont suppose it natters if it is a tut or a lecture either way

[@justmyusername9209]

@@myphone-ph4hh It's neither. He is a high school teacher. This is a high school class.

[@myphone-ph4hh]

@@justmyusername9209 thats pretty cool. It is great teaching then. I thought it was a first year uni class 😊

[@shannonjones8877]

I remember once hearing it suggested that bias might actually affect average penis size. Basically, researchers weren't going out and measuring every penis they could get their hands on, but they were instead getting their data on a volunteer basis. So one could argue the males who volunteered to give their measurements were more likely to be on the bigger side because males with smaller penises would more likely be more embarrassed about participating. And then this becomes crazier when considering that the average being artificially inflated like this increases the likelihood of males being unconfident about their penis size. So yeah, there's a good chance that the average penis size is actually smaller than what's on record.

[@Seeyeay]

Thanks bro, i needed this 🥲

[@austinfontes3906]

I'm gunna start calling myself only slightly below average then 😎

[@Just_a_happy_lil_guy]

@@austinfontes3906 💀💀💀

[@rodrigorebollos]

The winds of change are blowin'~ There's excitement!...in the air~ Can you feel it? It's electrical and magical~ The happy train's on track~ Because America is.... Back!

[@mesotolioma5089]

:')

[@ChristoKiwi]

I wish my teachers were this good back in school. Real world examples, interesting presentation and uplifting energy! GIVE THIS MAN A PAY RISE

[@imaverageatgamesbutimostly3431]

That’s unfair to your past teachers because this topic is much more interesting than what you typically learn in school, and you’ve only had to pay attention for 6 minutes as opposed to a full day of school.

[@MrJuliankilla]

@@imaverageatgamesbutimostly3431 yeah I would say he has a very biased opinion

[@roy2195]

Ur comment is literally survivorship biased because the non-interesting parts of the lesson didn't make it into the youtube video

[@robbierootbeer8056]

He reminds me of our history teacher who actually funnily enough taught us this exact story!

[@NovaRanger007]

Wow, that's an interesting thing I learnt today, got sent here from out of a dwarven armor design.

[@Liwet.]

Another example can be found in World War 1. Soldiers were given bullet proof helmets and the amount of head injuries drastically increased! Do you know why? . . . What also happened is the amount of deaths from head injuries decreased. Soldiers that would have died from head injuries ended up coming back with head wounds instead.

[@rosso4122]

They were NOT bulletproof, they were splinter/fragmentation proof to protect from falling shrapnell and debre that was shot up into the air from HE-Shell explosions and such.

[@tyler89557]

Because instead of dying instantly they got an injury and had a chance at living perhaps?

[@geocarey]

Also... perhaps the helmet made them feel protected so they stuck their head up more often? I once read that the way to stop ALL traffic accidents immediately would be to ban seat belts and have an 8 inch sharp spike in the centre of every steering wheel.

[@tyler89557]

You severely underestimate the power of stupid. There were car accidents long before safety regulations for cars kicked in.

[@garypeterson3628]

It has to do with how statistics were kept. If you died from a head wound without a helmet you were just listed as "Dead" If you survived a head injury because you had your helmet on it was listed as "Head injury" If you put your helmet between your head and a bullet you were listed as "Stupid"

[@AGreySky]

the toupée falacy is related. "I've never seen a good toupée" Well, ya wouldn't realise a good toupée was, in fact, a toupée.

[@benjiposey5453]

Ah, same goes for ninjas

[@michaelharrington6698]

Reminds me when I told a teacher my older brother was sneaky. She said, "I didn't think he was sneaky" ...

[@lucagerza7372]

Same goes for cgi in movies

[@bunyip42]

I'll just add "Camouflage Artist, US Air Force Dirigible Corps" to my resume. Then, when the interviewer says, "Are you sure? I've never seen a USAF Dirigible"... 😎🤣

[@PhantomAyz]

Reminds me of the thought that the smartest criminals never got caught

[@sirbaguette8378]

Reminds me of the helmet riddle: In a war, there were reports that too many people became injured and died due to damage to the head. So they designed a much stronger and lightweight helmet. However this only caused more soldiers to be reported injured in the battlefield. How so? Answer: more people injured because the helmet prevented them from dying, only injuring them

[@VhenRaTheRaptor]

There is an interesting point similar to that. Did you know British Shermans had a higher crew loss rate when knocked out then American Shermans, despite identical tanks? But a lower crew injury rate? American tank crews wore helmets. Brits wore berets.

[@CSelH]

@@VhenRaTheRaptor if Nicholas Moran taught us anything, it's that you really want a helmet when you're about to experience a significant emotional event.

[@Observer31]

fragments and shrapnel. You get a small piece of shrapnel in the arm, it hurts and you may be out of the fight, but you can survive. Get one in the head.... the first body armor (flack jackets) were also meant to protect the body from these small fragments.

[@loicvanderwielen]

It's from the introduction of the British WW1 brodie helmet.

[@Moose1207]

I took 5 years of schooling to do industrial HVAC. If I had a teacher that was this engaging, this enthusiastic about the material I'm sure I would have enjoyed it more, and retained more knowledge. This is excellent instructor skills !

[@kukalakana]

I noticed that "volunteer bias" before I ever knew there was a name for it. Chuck out a random question on social media like "How many people here are left-handed", and you would think the number approaches 50% when really we lefties are the ones who are more likely to answer a question like that.

[@DeathnoteBB]

I mean yeah cause the question is literally aimed at left-handed folk. If you’re right-handed you wouldn’t pipe up to just go “I’m not!”

[@goldeer7129]

It' also extremely important here to say that they are NOT 50% of lefties but like 10~20%. If you only ask lefties to say they are, it's gonna be extremely biased since only a few right-handed will manifest. But, even if you ask "what is your dominant hand", left-handed people will answer more than actual average of left-handed people. Or, if you think the answer is obvious, that you're part of the majority of people, you may not answer. But if you are (or think you are) part of a minority of peope you probably will answer to be heard. This is one of the reasons taking surveys out of context can be dangerous and non-representative.

[@dELTA13579111315]

​@@DeathnoteBB I wouldn't either

[@carultch]

@@DeathnoteBB That's exactly the OP's point. You get a sampling bias when the question is systematically of interest to the left-handed participants, that most of the right-handed people don't become part of your data.

[@ariannasv22]

That's why I don't really like KZbinr polls when they ask like "what games do you want me to play?" And the KZbinr mostly plays only one kind of game.

[@abanjoplayer]

Keeping students engaged is, in my opinion, the biggest thing you can do to aid their learning. Great stuff

[@oz_jones]

O captain, my captain

[@Aeroxima]

@Autismo Yeah, that illicit school should be raided, the teachers fired (or better shot), and political propaganda spread thoroughly to keep people properly controlled.

[@Kay_Dabbles]

Anybody else watch this due to a clip about new dwarven armor design? In any case, no regrets about finding this gem.

[@WelfareChrist]

Taking classes on bias and heuristics should really be required, their such a fundamental facet of our day to day cognition it’d be great if we all started trying to account for them more often.

[@The88Cheat]

Also on statistics and probability. So many people are unable to understand how likely events are to happen.

[@kwadwolarbi1033]

@@The88Cheat this would also prevent lots of hindsight biases

[@lawrencedoliveiro9104]

People tend to have very bad intuitions on probability. For example, the base-rate fallacy: if a test for some kind of cancer is so effective at saving lives, why not test everybody, not just the at-risk group? If DNA and fingerprint identification is so useful for solving crimes, why not record everybody’s DNA and fingerprints?

[@ImAlsoMerobiba]

@@The88Cheat people would then complain about having to learn useless math, like they already do. A lot of people don't realize how often they use skills and knowledge from those classes that they deemed useless. But that's also on the educational system. It should also better framed as how are these topics applicable to real life.

[@alexanderSydneyOz]

It could be dangerous if too many people were schooled in these sorts of matters. Where would that leave social media? Given its GDP value, a recession could result.

[@TAK-yj4hj]

To summarize the comments You have the ones that say: ”I wish I had him as a teacher.” And then the ones that say: ”You were correct the first time. The US Air Force didn't exist in WW2”

[@stewiegrif1]

It's possible we can relate the discussion of bias to this comment section. If a lot of comments are related to his correct/incorrect retelling of history, does that say something about how people who like history react to potential falsifications? It's a compelling way to look at data. I would argue that comments on the internet are under constant competition due to the value and reward systems that the original creators of the systems put in place.

[@CCSABCD]

There's always the "muh army" murican

[@lordgarion514]

Except they aren't exactly right either. It went from the "United States army air service" to the "United States army air Force" in 1941. It also stopped being completely controlled by the army at that time.

[@kendog84bsc]

I wrote the second comment. I was scrolling down the comment section, and found your comment. Then there was my comment I had just posted. Chilling

[@royal_throck2983]

You forgot, "another example is WW1 helmets"

[@GrubKiller436]

This is exactly what some people mentioned with regards to Steve Job's "follow your dreams" advice. You hear that a lot from successful people. But what you don't hear are the catastrophic stories of those who followed their dreams. In short, advice from successful people are always pretty meh. And that is because of survivorship bias.

[@debussychopin2766]

Wow. That is something I never thought of but always thought that saying was a bit cliche just couldn't put my finger on it.

[@izabellasonier7444]

Some of the best advice I've heard from somebody that shot big, and got successful. 'you should never listen to famous people when they say stuff like 'follow your dreams, and you'll become great like I did', I just got incredibly lucky, as did most others who became rich by following their dreams. Not that they didn't play a role, but If it was all hard work and skill, there would be a lot more rich and famous people. because for every person that reached for the stars and touched them, theres 100 more who went plummeting back to the ground. If you really want to, you should never hesitate to follow your dreams if that's what you really want, but always make sure you've got something to go back to if/when it doesn't work out.'

[@skeetsmcgrew3282]

I suppose in this example the alternative is to not follow your dreams and give up and purposely live a mediocre life. Probably a rational option given the odds. I've been saying for years that we need to stop telling kids they are special and if they work hard they can achieve their goals. But then I imagine going up to a room full of kids and saying "More than likely, statistically speaking, either one or none of you will ever go on to do something great." Oof

[@backlog2389]

I definitely think you can chase your dreams without dieing. Most of the people who chased their dreams and went to college and failed are big Bernie supporters now.

[@backlog2389]

@@izabellasonier7444 some people get lucky. But 90% of the time it's just people working their absolute ass off.

[@larrypanellajazzsaxophone8013]

The aircraft depicted is a Lockheed PV-1 Ventura, a plane that was used by multiple allied air forces via the lend lease program. My father flew one and was eventually shot down with his crew on their 6th mission. One of their engines got taken out and they managed to crash land in "friendly territory." Very interesting lesson and great engagement with the students!

[@garyslayton8340]

Huh I figured it was an a-26

[@PotatoPatatoVonSpudsworth]

Had a grandfather who worked at an airbase during the war, helping coordinate bombing runs over various German cities. He never actually saw the impact the bombers had until the war ended, and a pilot offered to fly him over Germany. It was the first time he actually saw the destruction he'd helped create, and it haunted him for the rest of his life. It's one thing to see a demolished city in the middle of wartime, it's another to fly over it after the fighting's stopped, and just contemplate the impact your actions have had on the world.

[@JoeOvercoat]

@@PotatoPatatoVonSpudsworth This is true to this day for a lot of people in the business. For many, they don’t want to know what they’re contributing to. I commend your grandfather for taking that ride. It was healthy that it bothered him. P.S. The Operations Room channel has a handful of great videos on the subject of ‘strategic bombing’ missions.

[@Matt-yg8ub]

Let me guess, they needed a mathematician to let them know that being shot in the engine would be a bad thing, right?

[@JoeOvercoat]

@@Matt-yg8ub I think only a mathematician would think that every shot in every engine and every cockpit shot would be a kill shot because for instance, you’ve got two engines. There’s something really wonky about this data set.

[@chesscomsupport8689]

Plot twist: Actually the other side knew the US was conducting the study, so they told their pilots to only shoot at the areas with the red dots.

[@Menaceblue3]

Luftwaffe intelligence says, *JA! DAS IST GUT!*

[@impulsiveDecider]

Dun dun duuuuuuuuuuu

[@octopusph.d7737]

lol wtf

[@GroundHOG-2010]

With aircraft it's generally well known to shoot for the pilot, the engines and the wings. But generally an assumption that all areas of an aircraft get an equal enough amount of bullets hit them due to inaccuracy generally holds true enough.

[@orangecat3021]

This is false. You can’t aim where to shoot on a plane when the target is very small

[@someonemagical]

See also the Toupe Fallacy. "All toupes look fake. Whenever, I see a toupe its so obviously fake." Well, of course you would think that if you're judging all toupes by the ones that you notice. That's not accounting for the toupes that are so realistic you wouldn't notice them if you saw them.

[@andrewpanin3435]

That's a good one. It always puts people off getting them and instead opt for surgery or more expensive options. When really if you get one properly fitted and matched to your skin/original hair color they look quite good.

[@UnknownSquid]

It's the same thing with the "All vegans are assholes" mentality, and countless other social/ideological groups it easily applies to. If you visited a restaurant every week and shareed it with a vegan couple who simply enjoy their meal like anyone else, you wouldn't even know they were there. Might get along and enjoy their company on occasion none the wiser. If even a single time in many years however, you encountered an aggressively preachy individual who makes a scene, then it's easy for people to form a lasting bias, along with a story that will be told to friends about the "crazy vegan" incident.

[@Nevir202]

UnknownSquid I don’t quite agree with this assessment, as it implies that there are Graham’s who don’t talk about it at the first opportunity. I’ve literally never had the experience of knowing someone for weeks/months/years and THEN finding out they’re vegan. Even the ones who aren’t lunatics usually end up mentioning it within a day or two of knowing them.

[@AnimeCritical]

@@Nevir202 and there are those who never told you.

[@SerenaBluee]

@@Nevir202 It's useful for people whose company you enjoy to know your dietary requirements if you want to get food or coffee with them, so some may inform you purely for that reason. Vegetarians and vegans might want a dairy-alternative milk in their coffee, for instance.

[@fitz8923]

Please... please... to the students, love this teacher. I can't express enough how valuable a teacher that cares about what he is teaching is. They are invaluable to society and to your life personally.

[@thegamesforreal1673]

I'm a science teacher in training and people like this are absolutely role models all teachers should learn from. Just in this short lesson fragment alone; he's engaged with the topic, enthusiastic, and really tries to convey those things to the students. He tells a story in his teaching. He doesn't tell off a student who got the wrong answer and instead tries different ways of presenting the information until, in the students' own words, "it just clicked". Really a shining example of a great lesson here.

[@patrickfielding3613]

What an amazing teacher!! He explains the subject so well and really interacts with his class in a positive way.. What a great example for us all!!

[@Maxcraft12]

This guys math lesson: WW2 Plane warfare My math teacher in school: Bob takes 2 onions and smashes Susan over the head with them

[@Tinfoil_Hardhat]

Yeah honestly. Your school should've taught you basic economics instead.

[@Maxcraft12]

@@Tinfoil_Hardhat I majored in economics my friend.

[@Tinfoil_Hardhat]

@@Maxcraft12 Ha.

[@odanemcdonald9874]

I wanna hear more from your teacher

[@TranquillShot]

"Let me demonstrate"

[@Gl33D]

No idea why this was reccomended to me but i wish i had this guy as a teacher when i was in school

[@shannonolivas9524]

Beyond sheer mathematics, this is useful food for thought in terms of critical thinking and the interpretation of information.

[@Sigart]

Took a university course and they were very particular about this being a thing in _all_ surveys, because you have specific types of people who would be willing to fill out surveys.

[@elisam.r.9960]

This kind of critical thinking is especially needed on platforms like LinkedIn. The posts there positively reek of survivorship bias.

[@mariokuttel2107]

@@elisam.r.9960 mind to explain?

[@elisam.r.9960]

@@mariokuttel2107 You'll see a lot of anecdotes that reflect survivorship bias under the #management and #leadership tags. I unfollowed both of them due to the overabundance of stories like the following link: www.inc.com/benjamin-p-hardy/10-things-unstoppable-people-do-that-average-people-dont.html

[@OspreyKnight]

You are correct saying this is US army. The US Army Air corps would become the US Air Force in 1947, after the war. I love using this as an example of looking at negative space when teaching classes. I do photography classes and I get students that struggle with negative space. Using survivorship bias an example helps more often than you would expect. It tickles the brain to not ignore absence of things, and think of the absence as things in and of themselves.

[@MaskOfCinder]

Glad I wasn't the only one to notice that what he thought was a mistake actually wasn't.

[@declanlambert7023]

almost all shark attacks happen in shallow water. so u might think, being in deeper water would mean u r safer from shark attacks. but infact sharks are much more common in deeper water than shallow water, but whats important, is that humans are much more common in shallow water than deep water, and thus more chances are given for a shark attack to happen in shallow water. i find that pretty interesting and cool, you are less likely to get attacked by a shark in shallow water than in deep water, but at the same time most shark attacks happen in shallow water!

[@gorrammit]

Apparently, this was also why the Sherman tank was notorious for being a “death trap - more tankers survived a burning Sherman than other tanks of other countries. Those tankers lived to share their horror stories.

[@geegaw14]

Exactly. The Sherman may have burned easier but it was also easier to get out of.

[@dorkangel1076]

I don't know if that works the same way since people watching a tank burn up can also report on it and tanks were rarely fighting on their own. Therefore the evidence isn't just from tank drivers whom it happened to but from the many others who witnessed it.

[@dorkangel1076]

@@PendulumJustice Shooting them til they burn is the same for all tanks making that comparison pointless. If wet storage solved the issue then it had an issue that needed to be solved. 🤷‍♂️

[@ForageGardener]

The great uncle George died while trying to escape a disabled american tank during the battle of the bulge in ww2.

[@edm240b9]

@@dorkangel1076 eh, i can see the two being somewhat related. Interestingly, the number of killed US tankers in the European Theater of Operations was under 1,500 KIA. This is because the Sherman was a tank that could be easily escaped when hit. The myth of Shermans being death traps come from Belton Cooper’s book, which shows off survivorship bias from a mechanics POV. He only saw destroyed tanks coming in, never the ones that made it out safely.

[@ScaredPilot]

Same idea, why do cancer rates go up? Because most people live long enough to have them now. Before they just die early for other reasons.

[@MrRafagigapr]

And also more people actually find out they have cancer 50 years ago people just died and no one knew why in rural undeveloped areas with low access to medicine

[@f.c.laukhard3623]

@@MrRafagigapr Yep, same reason why tumor rates are up around nuclear power plants even though they are perfectly sealed and no radiation leaks out. People just go to the screenings more often and even harmless tumors are found that grow so slowly that people would not have died from them anyways so nobody would have known had they not done the screening. Also same reason why Turkey for example has so few cases of CoVid-19. Where no tests are done, nobody can be counted as infected. Same in Africa, I fear that it is much more widespread there than most people think, the Chinese companies are very present in huge parts of Africa and almost always bring their own workers in. Also lots of African students in China who probably also visit their families from time to time and could have spread it before it was even known to exist.

[@UnknownSquid]

@@f.c.laukhard3623 I have wondered how poorer regions such as Africa are handling the virus. I've been surprised to have heard nothing regarding it. I suppose the one small skewed consolation for somewhere like Africa is that the life expectancy is only 61M/65F, meaning even if it's widespread, there are perhaps less people vulnerable to it.

[@f.c.laukhard3623]

@@UnknownSquid Would not count on that. Younger people are not as vulnerable but still often need hospitalisation, often enough involving respiratory machines and I doubt that the density of those are as high in Burkina Faso as they are in Taiwan. The low death rates in younger age groups we see so far was under rather good circumstances (in Hubei where the situation was more severe due to more cases, the death/case ratio was higher than in other regions of China with enough capacities for the fewer cases). I also suspect that the circumstances leading to the lower life expectancy also affect your health earlier on. It is not as if Africans lead a perfectly healthy life up to their 60s and then just drop dead all of a sudden. Now that might not move the curve in a way that 60 year olds there have the same problems as 80 year olds in South Korea but it probably leads at least to a slight shift in that regard. But well, this is all speculation and we probably will never know for sure.

[@UnknownSquid]

@@f.c.laukhard3623 Fair points. Can only hope they handle it alright. Though I suppose Corona is hardly the most of their worries, with the other prevalent diseases the continent already suffers at large.

[@kgun30]

The way his class gets involved is a real sign that most of his lessons are this good

[@iron2291]

Even though I already knew the information being provided, he was so engaging that I watched the whole thing anyway. What an excellent teacher.

[@SellusionStar]

"Excuse me, how often does planes crash?" -"Just once."

[@Subuzgreatest]

Unless it's a paper plane 😏 Ba dum tss

[@Tjalve70]

I have heard that the planes in Spain crash mainly in the rain.

[@SellusionStar]

@@Tjalve70 xD

[@vaclav_fejt]

I think there are old warbirds that do crash from time to time and it's not always a complete write-off - and there is an incentive to keep if flying, because it's a frikkin warbird, the coolest plane there is! So people pour money into them and yes, such planes can crash more than once...

[@SellusionStar]

@@vaclav_fejt True that!

[@nonegiven2830]

This also applies to entrepreneurs in capitalism. We hear a lot of stories about how people made their millions\billions and lots of "these habits millionaires have" but we rarely have that put in context of people who also tried and failed.

[@EU-op3db]

@@derekakaderek Language! Also it's pretty clear you don't understand their argument. Your comment is full of non sequiturs.

[@daniel355273]

@@derekakaderek Depending on the scenario, it's a weak version of a lottery winner saying "Liquidize your assets, buy lottery tickets. It works!"

[@EU-op3db]

@@derekakaderek I only feel the need to tell you, that you are wrong, and to name the logical fallacy you used.

[@bro748]

@@derekakaderek _"1st your assuming no millionaire earned their wealth"_ The original commenter never assumed this. _"the data from these surviving planes are directly misleading designers, entrepreneurs aren't purposely wasting money and making bad decisions yet still ending up rich."_ You seem to be confusing 'misleading' with 'leading to the opposite conclusion.' Misleading is defined by Google as _"giving the wrong idea or impression."_ 'Wrong' does *not* equal 'opposite.' In the plane example the designers are led to the opposite conclusion, but survivorship bias does take place even when the information is simply wrong. The example the original commenter gave is actually the same example that appear right above the plane example in the Wikipedia article about survivorship bias. I'm not particularly good with words, so I will simply quote the Wikipedia page. "popular media often tells the story of the determined individual who pursues their dreams and beats the odds. There is much less focus on the many people that may be similarly skilled and determined but fail to ever find success because of factors beyond their control or other (seemingly) random events.[9] This creates a false public perception that anyone can achieve great things if they have the ability and make the effort. The overwhelming majority of failures are not visible to the public eye, and only those who survive the selective pressures of their competitive environment are seen regularly." Ps, your grammar usage makes it extremely hard to figure out what you mean. I try to avoid being a 'grammar nazi,' but it took me five minutes to figure out what you meant in the second sentence.I also don't understand your final comparison at all, although I don't think that's due to grammar, but rather due to it being extremely vague.

[@haliax8149]

It's a fairish point, but you fail to realize that there are undeniable trait similarities in successful people. Keep in mind, success includes people in the 250k/year range too. Some of the predictors are intelligence with a sense of reality, creativity, and motivation.

[@turretwhisperer]

¡ love that you let the students discuss and not necessarily have to raise a hand to formulate ideas and questions in your classroom, sees a lot more intuitive and like a free discussion

[@annoybot]

3:07 "If . . . you don't come back, to be a data point." = the vividly "missing piece" in "success stories"

[@TheNebraska402]

Exactly. Annoying to hear stories of "I can do it and so can you". Well, a lot have tried and you're the only one that made it work

[@WrecklessEating]

This was pretty interesting.

[@Hongobogologomo]

Matt?!

[@BlurpleTree]

was not expecting to see WrecklessEating here

[@ionshiese7006]

Yes

[@justamanofculture12]

Verified must like

[@JO-vb4vh]

I was listening to the lecture, then it stopped at 6:09. I became sad so suddenly. Wow, this guy is good at teaching.

[@mavoc3094]

Make the Teaching Profession Great Again

[@thatanimeweirdo]

I graduated last year and listening to this was actually fun... Thought I'd have enough after 1.5 decades of school

[@pastychomper4939]

He might have been good at teaching, or he might have got lucky with this one lesson. It's the only one I've seen recommended on KZbin. 😉

[@azoniarnl3362]

@Straight Razor Daddy Thats what history teachers are for.

[@Alucard-gt1zf]

@@pastychomper4939 there's more and in every one he's amazing

[@PhilTaylorPhotog]

If my statistics lecturer had approached the subject like this I might have passed. 70% of students failed and we were all getting HDs in other subjects…applied teaching is so important. Well done.

[@wiryantirta]

“GOOD ON YA” You barely came back from a long range meat grinder bombing mission over Normandy with a chewed up plane and this is the first thing your Wing Commander says.

[@SpadeRZA]

Your plane's got bullet damage, like, good on ya!

[@DavidPumpernickel]

ah god that's hilarious.

[@SebAnders]

My survey suggests that nobody has ever lost their heads to a shark attack.

[@cybersilver5816]

And that's a logical conclusion to reach when you only look at the data you receive from survivors.

[@naverilllang]

I have

[@ruskibot7745]

I'm not sure if that's ever actually happened, I mean yeah it is definitely possible but idk if headless corpses have ever washed up on the beach. There isn't a whole lot of good yum yums in the head, but legs are quite good(from the shark's POV)

[@jamiedel2707]

Imagine how much we would learn and enjoy school if we had teachers like him who actually look like they are enjoying themselves

[@B3Band]

Imagine how much we would learn if idiots didn't burn out every single teacher in the basic classes on the way to this advanced one.

[@ikr9358]

Imagine how good the teachers would be if they weren't overworked and underpaid.

[@fleeplayTV]

I really can't imagine being passionate about giving the same lessons 500 times maybe the first 3-4 years but after I'm checked out

[@marwanssalem]

It's these interestng real life topic that are fun and should be taught

[@ikr9358]

@josh Do you have any experience teaching?

[@davefontanilla3703]

"What doesn't kill you makes you stronger"

[@clover8673]

This is the perfect example of a teacher applying real world problems to lessons that seem as though they have no purpose

[@frothyjazz7425]

His cadence and genuine excitement about the topic has me invested, and I'm not even in the room. Seems like an amazing Teacher.

[@B1SQ1T]

Teacher: what do you see here Students: bullets, ice, etc. Me: plane chicken pox

[@TheIndogamer]

"I diagnosed your Beaufighter Mk. 5 and it appears to have chicken pox."

[@marigo856]

@@TheIndogamer should have gotten plane vaccines

[@livethefuture2492]

marigo8 You mean 'shots' ...

[@gia257]

laser show

[@lyler.1082]

@@TheIndogamer it's a lockheed hudson

[@morrischristopher5366]

The patience, plan and engagement defines You’re an amazing teacher. Thanks for being one of those awesome souls that share.

[@robopollo09]

I LOVE the vibes of this teacher. He is the master of teaching, does everything right: clearness, allows interventions and puts attention to them so he can keep them inside the class. It is absolutely AWESOME, he is the main thing ongoing in the classroom!