Modeling Invasive Species Considering Climate to Inform Management Activities: May 9, 2024

Invasive species are a top concern of resource managers and are already shifting their ranges as they spread after initial introduction and establishment. Species distribution models are a common tool to predict where invasive species may establish under both current and future climate conditions. While these habitat suitability models can be useful, it is also important to understand their limitations. We have developed models identifying areas suitable for invasive plants that are often driven by climate. In some cases, we have developed habitat suitability models for species and applied these models to future climate scenarios to identify areas that may become climatically suitable in the future. Climate change adds another level of uncertainty in predicting invasive species’ potential ranges. Managers are also concerned with assessing invasion risk to identify areas most at risk of invasion, and these areas can also be influenced by changing climate. Additionally, potential management actions for invasive species can also be influenced by climate. Through all these examples, we show how models of invasive species considering current and future climate can help land managers develop climate-smart management protocols by prioritizing monitoring and early detection rapid response actions to high-risk invasives.