Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson & The Expiring Bear Market "Shot Clock"

[@ranjisam430]

Thank you! Incredible gift to listen to this conversation.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@anthonygaudio3270]

I enjoyed it too. He is great and the the show is a great way to learn.

[@vaybor]

He is getting so much praise but not only has he been wrong he has been very wrong. Anyone who follows his calls has missed out on an epic rally costing themselves a lot of lost money

[@Eli_sab_eth]

Exactly! All I hear is cranky old men, shouting at the market, holding T-Bills while watching many stocks up 30-40% ytd.

[@colacola253]

Mike you’re wrong simple as that

[@steplaland]

Stubborness, that's all it is. $spy 420 should have been your stop. It had been in that trading range from 380-420 for 7 months, and then once that was taken out, May and June /July went ballistic. Aren't you all traders and watching levels?

[@tammyl.9254]

Bear party. Misery loves company!!

[@keto6789]

Permabear Club

[@_d0ser]

Mike I thought we were getting to 3200? What's the deal?

[@reganzig5029]

Is it possible that you "bears" missed the bull market because you underestimated the impact of global liquidity?

[@kevinkopek9455]

Mike Wilson was wrong all of last year, and he's been wrong all of this year. All last year he said the market was going to bottom at the 3000-3200 area and reiterated that prediction earlier this year. He has never retracted that. Next they'll bring in Harry Dent and Peter Schiff and tell them how prescient they are.

[@denshaikemen2232]

@DAN NATHAN don't you get reading comments is TOXIC for anyone's mental health ??? Don't let a few haters mess with your head but the reality is they just enjoy upsetting you so stop self-inflicting yourself this pain. I can see show after show that It's time for you to STOP reading comments and keep what you guys are doing best, informing, chatting, analysing etc ... how REALLY useful are comments anyway to the show ..? Love you guys, Keep on the good shows

[@RiskReversalMedia]

THIS ☝️

[@Yomamaissoo]

Bears 😂😂😂

[@jonjohn3120]

dan is the king of compounding mistakes......its not trading if its not emotional

[@keto6789]

So these guys are waiting for "the big crash" when all along they could've bought into QQQ at the start of the year and been up 40%! THIS is why traders don't beat the sp500!

[@SMTraz]

These 4 bears have gotten plummeted by the market this year. They missed out on so much.

[@eikoGoldstein]

You’re right. It is very difficult for most professional traders to consistently beat the market. And amateur traders, who pay fees, are sure to lose. But these guys are addicted to the market. I am amazed how much hot air they exude in the process of trying to predict the market’s short term movements. In a better world, their considerable intellect would be engaged in productive pursuits.

[@antonioranaudo5515]

Isn’t it true the recessionary head and we’re just coming out of it backwards🥱😮🤦🤦

[@jonjohn3120]

great job by Dan pivoting away from the Melissa Lee question that they refused to answer at the time too

[@Eli_sab_eth]

All I hear is cranky old men, shouting at the market, holding T-Bills while watching many stocks up 30-40% ytd.

[@Solarsystem50]

I like Mike Wilson, the other day one of the CNBC host had him in a head lock "say you are a bull! say it!" and Mike resisted.

[@colacola253]

Can’t believe you make the big bucks

[@nathan500100]

great show. cant believe i didnt see this channel before. i will never watch "compound" again

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Welcome aboard

[@YesWeCan-u9i]

How can I found out the performance of these guys over the last 15 years?

[@SMTraz]

One bear isn't enough! Two bears aren't enough! Three bears aren't enough! We NEED four bears on this show today! Remember what Melissa Lee said about your bear eco-chamber? She hit the nail on the head.

[@davidconnor5874]

Dan got SUPER defensive when Guy brought that up. As they say, "a hit dog hollers".

[@timothyha2854]

I don’t c9me here for a balanced approach lmao

[@jacobhodson4553]

I can confirm, St Louis is the worst large city in America. But I’m a Kansas City homer so I’m also biased

[@tonyd3558]

Excellent objective discussion. Good work guys, from rainy London.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

thank you!

[@Casey-rr7th]

One of the best discussions I’ve heard all year! And I listen to all of the best in the business. You guys are the best and with Mike Wilson there - I was listening to the Beatles of financial markets. Well done guys.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@steplaland]

This channel is bad for your investing health. Danny took a cheap shot at Henry. From 98, the bubble lasted another 2 years. How many shorts blew up before being right. He talks about immediate gratification and yet he was first to shove it down your throat and gloat in Dec about Tesla’s collapse. You got it right, now bulls that bought the dip got it right. Just say you are wrong and move on instead of keeping to tell your audience you will be vindicated. We are nearly talking about 25% off the Oct bottom in Spy. You have been dead wrong. Best trader is Steve on Fast Money. He can call it like it is.

[@tamayozgokmen9596]

excellent discussion!

[@Everyman.0314]

Keep going Guy. You add a human element wherever you are. 'If you believe...Yeah, yeah, yeah. yea

[@gilbertcomplete4422]

I do watch fast money, but I like this show better, It’s more honest and you guys kick ass.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

You rock

[@atangbingana283]

Mikes a level headed guy always gives great commentary. Doesn't deserve the whole "capitulation " spiel but this is the nature of the casino business we are all in. Took it on the chin like a champ. We move on and go again.

[@ericmodernel9205]

yes your a zero.... FJB CNBC always talking crap on SOFI ...

[@GWrex1skip]

What did The Fed do after The Great Reccession? QE right down to a Fed Funds rate of zero. What did non financial firms do? Debt...upon debt...upon debt. Monitor bankruptcies...but thats co-incidental. Better yet...look at the banks loan loss reserves. Its chilling....

[@24theMoney]

BOA Sativa is the WORST. This is who Dan is referring to no doubt. Talking out of both sides of her mouth.

[@barfly1984]

Easily my favourite mainstream analyst.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

glad you liked it!

[@GWrex1skip]

I love Mike Wilson. But where I disagree with him is this: "We are in a Bear Market rally...and this is the end of the secular Bull Market that started in 1987." Ralph Samuel Elliott 's theory is still alive and well. The very best Technical Indicator known to man. Wave 1 started in 1987...we had a double 2 Wave...2000...then in 2008. Wave 3 completed and Wave 4 commenced during the Pandemic...Wave 5...until 2021. All waves were within Elliott's guidelines. We have a massive inversion of the yield curve. The financial distress of non-financial firms is higher than the Great Recession ...(although as to this date...we aren't experiencing one). China is contracting. The Euro-Zone is contracting. Yes, a synchronized global Reccession. This one is going to be horrible... The FED was late to the party. We are just beginning real restrictive monetary policy (i.e. short term rates are greater than "Core Inflation "). Usually , on a 3 year...4 day chart...my VIX trade would have been in the bag. This time around...a 3 year one month chart....by November...2023....14:1 payout on the UVXY...then reverse it...big money to be made. On a 3 year...1 month chart...its an Elliott Zigzag...at a 76% retracement....it could go as high as 86%. After that? DEATH....

[@giantessmaria]

great episode guys! Mike is always a treat!

[@giantessmaria]

@RiskReversal-Media sorry, you reply doesn't make sense to me.

[@Meishach2112]

The bear skin rug show.

[@donpasulka]

“We don’t like the market trading at 20 X forward earnings unless we bought cheaper than that, in which case, we’ll try to pump it to 50 X forward earnings - or more if retail is that gullible.”

[@bills1995vette]

Mike Wilson is woke and I’m pulling my money out of MS. I put a nice sum of cash in MS and begged my advisor to put me in tech and he didn’t. Left allot of money on the table.

[@colacola253]

Clowns will always be clowns

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Thanks for all the comments

[@albeylazo2659]

But you wrong Guy…we already had a 20% drop, actually the nasdaq dropped like 35% in 2022 from its highs, what else you want? You bears were right last year, u should have taken the W and go hibernate, u cant expect multiple 20-30% drops back to back thats not how it works😂

[@sebfox2194]

31:31 The guy with the glasses had it right when he said "crises" as the plural of crisis. Then the other dude to his left (in)corrects him back to crisises. A good example of how just saying something with confidence gets people to believe that it is correct.

[@omarradi6527]

I think Mike is hard on himself because yes he was bearish in 2023 , but he has a great call in October 2022 by buying stock while being bearish based on the risk reward

[@1309gsk]

gt video and nvely is that you have invited morgan stanley startegist. the question that i have is , is the market taking into account 215 dollar earning wit dollar 98 and interest rate 5.25? all the best. stay safe and cool

[@Isaacr90]

It's insane for Danny to act like he didn't understand CNBCs format....

[@jonathonwagner2166]

If chat GPT hadn't come out, none of this AI stuff would be happening.

[@christmas10023]

I Agree with Guy 👋

[@ericmodernel9205]

I will never listen to wilson again .... wrong as always .. Good job Mike

[@_OptionsTrading]

Great to hear from Mike Wilson. How the heck did Guy not know that Danny was referencing The Fugitive?

[@johnschwartz7231]

Can you imagine if this guy was managing your money fired missed the whole bull market

[@mathyderabadi5513]

Mike, please don’t let down your followers.

[@donpasulka]

These guys are sucking a lot of air these days. Still trying to put on a confident front.

[@stctjc]

Good podcast. The bearishness makes perfect sense to me but having no effect on the SPY.

[@港完]

Bunch of silly perma bear misssing out.

[@aaazzzoaoa]

just leave a note showing I cared about tone like this although I think I need some strong bulls also on the show

[@Carol-cb9yu]

You're all in agreement the market is wrong. Pretty useless.

[@bruceheitmann6725]

Trifecta+1 hot hot hot

[@港完]

Mike,,, hiw much money you missed on your cleints fund?

[@KK-pm7ud]

You should try Clementine's Creamery when you're in St. Louis. Solid.

[@kingkang6877]

This goes to show that no one knows where the market is headed generally in the short-term (

[@weho_brian]

being bearish right now isn't a bad thing, in fact im probably neutral on things. being bearish 6 months ago was the problem. I know hindsight is 20/20 blah blah but really think about it. If the S&P is already down 30%, do you really think its like to go down another 10-20%? At that junction the risk is to the upside, not the downside.

[@t6553gw]

Listen again on 10/5 and what Mike Wilson said makes lot of senses now, good learning for me!

[@mikeplaced3111]

When Mike reverses his call in Sept what will Guy & Danny do, cry? Or be Mad Dog in Cannonball - "if you're going to be a bear be a grizzly!"

[@mikeplaced3111]

@RiskReversal-Media don't understand response. Waiting to October Mike's next podcast

[@jasongrig]

Stubborn bear. Soft landing vibes

[@MonetaryRebel]

Mike Wilson is a boss. Great talk guys.

[@MarkBlumenthal1]

so, at some point you all must admit you were wrong the last 8 months

[@Isaacr90]

Dan is too emotionally bearish on NVDA....it probably will have a correction....months if not years after he started shorting 😂

[@ocvegasproperty]

How can you short the hottest stock on the market? Suicidal tendencies

[@CWO-J]

Danny Moses owned it! Thanks for having Mike Wilson on the show.

[@hafeld8348]

Price does dictate a change in one's view.

[@colacola253]

But can’t change his mind. Is this a trader?

[@karlson68]

I think Mike would’ve been right if not for the Fed bank bailout.

[@MrAtul009]

But then he had an exit opportunity by changing his bear thesis ! One way I still respect him because he is very vocal about what he believes in!

[@keto6789]

Who cares if he's right? He missed out on a 40% QQQ run this year....

[@robertfiorillo3227]

​, Says the Monday morning QB.

[@tammyl.9254]

@@keto6789 I see your idiotic comments a lot. YOU'RE A MORON!!!

[@MarkBlumenthal1]

@@keto6789 exactly - he was wrong, and led many people wrong the last 6 months in positioning

[@lavellglover712]

The Phil LeBeau impression was hilarious 😂

[@lorenzomoran9880]

Love listening to Mike Wilson, super humble commentary and acknowledges what went wrong with the thesis and what went right. Consistent messaging and doesn’t speak out of both sides of mouth. I wish this episode was longer!

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Glad you enjoyed it! Next time 2 hour episode? 🤔

[@Sammy-uv1kl]

Lots of blabber in this interview

[@cookinthekitchen]

Happy birthday and moon landing

[@commycomentor9695]

Btw… I didn’t know y’all had a podcast until that exchange… now I’m subbed

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Welcome and thank you!

[@atun77]

These guys are the new Jim Cramer 2.0! Do the inverse and make money which is the main goal in the first place.

[@thomasthornton5125]

Great conversation everyone.

[@danielk7490]

Great job, guys!

[@BigErnieBrown]

Mike jumped the shark

[@glenrobinson6846]

Mike Straight up guy ✊

[@colacola253]

And is still wrong

[@roger_rogers]

dan still short tesla?

[@Everyman.0314]

I respect MW. And agree with his views. But like DM said, MW should stop pandering. He threw out some superfluous comment suggesting AI will increase productivity. He doesn't really believe this. Will someone please explain to me how AI will have a continuous material impact on earnings?

[@KK-pm7ud]

That episode of Fast Monday that day with Cameron and Danny was an awesome one. Melissa did a fantastic time hosting.

[@_d0ser]

Melissa Lee is the goat presenter.

[@chobar0001]

🙌✍️💪

[@Yomamaissoo]

After seeing what a dogmatic guy Dan is, Wilson changed his position immediately 🤣🤣🤣

[@nancyfrancis959]

Lack of jobs due to corporate raiding is the main problem that has gutted my City of ST Louis. It started long ago if you look into the history of East St Louis located in Illinois. We were a manufacturing hub bringing citizens up from the South where there were no jobs. Combine this with racial inequities, poor urban planning,unban flight looking for new homes and schools at reasonable prices, Illinois not paying any attention to their side of the Mississippi River, and as the Gateway Arch illustrates we were the gateway to populating the Western United States as most of the Midwest was too. It is a great place to live with a rich history and many well established neighborhoods and cultural amenities. Yes the Downtown looks deserted because the Northside of the City is deserted because was developed in the late 1800’s, the lower income earners then bought there as people moved to the west of St Louis in the county and banks did not want to issue loans to them. The CIty’s government is controlled in many aspects by old statutes which the present day government have not been able to change. Sorry you did not get a New York kind of feel but it does not mean the metropolitan area is without merit.

[@balrajsingh6177]

0:46

[@Karim.711]

Unfortunately Dan didn’t back down since January and pushed very strongly, the bear argument. As an expert he did persuade many to miss the rally. Humble can be more honest than trying to excuse

[@uncleb9920]

Mike Wilson's the best

[@MartinRobertHogue-ne9gm]

Love show! On fast the other night you claimed that your guests have all different perspectives- bear & bull. Not sure that’s the case; i won’t say “echo chamber” but opinions could be broader.

[@Ja50nkAt]

I love the constructive criticism about the stock market and the economy, but these guys seem to be in their own bearish echo chamber. They'll probably be right but when?

[@prathusingh7642]

Thank you guys! You guys are awesome. Love Dan H talks straight with no BS ! Not a fan of Adami. Sorry man! Wilson: the smartest and what can I say about Danny: my hero

[@robertfiorillo3227]

Wilson has a great mindset and think is prediction is coming true soon. 👍

[@RiskReversalMedia]

We shall see

[@bills1995vette]

Woke woke woke.

[@paulrobbo321]

If I had a $ for every manager who was overweight energy the Monday after Saudi announced the production cut but then when oil moved very little, they were allegedly overweight tech. MW did get it wrong but I fear that these things are not as clear cut and buying or significantly adding now would be too brave for me.

[@Broooooooo1027]

Look at CD rates bro. No one is hurting and they saving like crazy. Give it up mf

[@mwillz5]

Dan ! you are so right ! my group of friends who watch CNBC interviews , just as I do , often have commented to me for some period of time , and have commented for years , how often you can see pundits , smart poeple no doubt , give their expected trends and outlook in the marketplace but only a short time later they are commenting in contrast to their previous view. Sure- in markets things change , we all get that , and peoples views are certainly allowed to change - mine do - but minds and opinions should not change just because a pundit may feel they are the odd one out , or just as bad , they dont back themselves. Your opening comments really rang true to me

[@reddragon3518]

The guy with the funny hair is such an apologist for bad advice.

[@Ryan.G.Spalding]

Not until next year. IMO But I'm certainly not hanging on until the last second.

[@Ryan.G.Spalding]

Student loan payments don't start until end of September. Give that a few months of racking up credit card debt into the holidays. Then we will see earnings start to fall. I think the narrative of the bubble will carry us right up until earning fall off a cliff. It will be two stage. Millennials stop spending, the market starts to fall, then boomers stop spending. Then elections, politicians will try to buy votes, and we are more screwed than before. Add another T to the deficit.