Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson & The Expiring Bear Market "Shot Clock"

[@ranjisam430]

Thank you! Incredible gift to listen to this conversation.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@anthonygaudio3270]

I enjoyed it too. He is great and the the show is a great way to learn.

[@CWO-J]

Danny Moses owned it! Thanks for having Mike Wilson on the show.

[@denshaikemen2232]

@DAN NATHAN don't you get reading comments is TOXIC for anyone's mental health ??? Don't let a few haters mess with your head but the reality is they just enjoy upsetting you so stop self-inflicting yourself this pain. I can see show after show that It's time for you to STOP reading comments and keep what you guys are doing best, informing, chatting, analysing etc ... how REALLY useful are comments anyway to the show ..? Love you guys, Keep on the good shows

[@RiskReversalMedia]

THIS ☝️

[@Solarsystem50]

I like Mike Wilson, the other day one of the CNBC host had him in a head lock "say you are a bull! say it!" and Mike resisted.

[@lorenzomoran9880]

Love listening to Mike Wilson, super humble commentary and acknowledges what went wrong with the thesis and what went right. Consistent messaging and doesn’t speak out of both sides of mouth. I wish this episode was longer!

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Glad you enjoyed it! Next time 2 hour episode? 🤔

[@MonetaryRebel]

Mike Wilson is a boss. Great talk guys.

[@iammclovin6200]

The best podcast out there. Danny, Dan and Guy discuss what you need to hear. Never miss an episode!

[@Casey-rr7th]

One of the best discussions I’ve heard all year! And I listen to all of the best in the business. You guys are the best and with Mike Wilson there - I was listening to the Beatles of financial markets. Well done guys.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@gilbertcomplete4422]

I do watch fast money, but I like this show better, It’s more honest and you guys kick ass.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

You rock

[@giantessmaria]

great episode guys! Mike is always a treat!

[@giantessmaria]

@RiskReversal-Media sorry, you reply doesn't make sense to me.

[@jackwilmer5940]

Love having Mike Wilson on; phenomenal guest

[@tamayozgokmen9596]

excellent discussion!

[@_d0ser]

Mike I thought we were getting to 3200? What's the deal?

[@tonyd3558]

Excellent objective discussion. Good work guys, from rainy London.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

thank you!

[@jonjohn3120]

dan is the king of compounding mistakes......its not trading if its not emotional

[@uncleb9920]

Mike Wilson's the best

[@barfly1984]

Easily my favourite mainstream analyst.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

glad you liked it!

[@jonjohn3120]

great job by Dan pivoting away from the Melissa Lee question that they refused to answer at the time too

[@Everyman.0314]

Keep going Guy. You add a human element wherever you are. 'If you believe...Yeah, yeah, yeah. yea

[@commycomentor9695]

Btw… I didn’t know y’all had a podcast until that exchange… now I’m subbed

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Welcome and thank you!

[@danielk7490]

Great job, guys!

[@mwillz5]

Dan ! you are so right ! my group of friends who watch CNBC interviews , just as I do , often have commented to me for some period of time , and have commented for years , how often you can see pundits , smart poeple no doubt , give their expected trends and outlook in the marketplace but only a short time later they are commenting in contrast to their previous view. Sure- in markets things change , we all get that , and peoples views are certainly allowed to change - mine do - but minds and opinions should not change just because a pundit may feel they are the odd one out , or just as bad , they dont back themselves. Your opening comments really rang true to me

[@thomasthornton5125]

Great conversation everyone.

[@SMTraz]

One bear isn't enough! Two bears aren't enough! Three bears aren't enough! We NEED four bears on this show today! Remember what Melissa Lee said about your bear eco-chamber? She hit the nail on the head.

[@davidconnor5874]

Dan got SUPER defensive when Guy brought that up. As they say, "a hit dog hollers".

[@timothyha2854]

I don’t c9me here for a balanced approach lmao

[@vaybor]

He is getting so much praise but not only has he been wrong he has been very wrong. Anyone who follows his calls has missed out on an epic rally costing themselves a lot of lost money

[@Eli_sab_eth]

Exactly! All I hear is cranky old men, shouting at the market, holding T-Bills while watching many stocks up 30-40% ytd.

[@t6553gw]

Listen again on 10/5 and what Mike Wilson said makes lot of senses now, good learning for me!

[@KK-pm7ud]

That episode of Fast Monday that day with Cameron and Danny was an awesome one. Melissa did a fantastic time hosting.

[@_d0ser]

Melissa Lee is the goat presenter.

[@reganzig5029]

Is it possible that you "bears" missed the bull market because you underestimated the impact of global liquidity?

[@_OptionsTrading]

Great to hear from Mike Wilson. How the heck did Guy not know that Danny was referencing The Fugitive?

[@nancyfrancis959]

Lack of jobs due to corporate raiding is the main problem that has gutted my City of ST Louis. It started long ago if you look into the history of East St Louis located in Illinois. We were a manufacturing hub bringing citizens up from the South where there were no jobs. Combine this with racial inequities, poor urban planning,unban flight looking for new homes and schools at reasonable prices, Illinois not paying any attention to their side of the Mississippi River, and as the Gateway Arch illustrates we were the gateway to populating the Western United States as most of the Midwest was too. It is a great place to live with a rich history and many well established neighborhoods and cultural amenities. Yes the Downtown looks deserted because the Northside of the City is deserted because was developed in the late 1800’s, the lower income earners then bought there as people moved to the west of St Louis in the county and banks did not want to issue loans to them. The CIty’s government is controlled in many aspects by old statutes which the present day government have not been able to change. Sorry you did not get a New York kind of feel but it does not mean the metropolitan area is without merit.

[@JscottMays]

Appreciate the data and the precision

[@jonEmontana]

Great lineup. Thx

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@nathan500100]

great show. cant believe i didnt see this channel before. i will never watch "compound" again

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Welcome aboard

[@YesWeCan-u9i]

How can I found out the performance of these guys over the last 15 years?

[@glenrobinson6846]

Mike Straight up guy ✊

[@NUWILDCAT1977]

Another great show guys. 👊🇺🇸

[@Matthewbyrd86]

Man on the Moon is a great song!

[@stctjc]

Good podcast. The bearishness makes perfect sense to me but having no effect on the SPY.

[@MartinRobertHogue-ne9gm]

Question: what indicator is more important to you guys? Inverted yield curve or unemployment rate?

[@austinembry4042]

For risk assets, there's no question it's rising UE. Equities can hold up during an inverted YC. Rising UE often coincides YC un-inversion, which is when equities REALLY take a hit.

[@lavellglover712]

The Phil LeBeau impression was hilarious 😂

[@colacola253]

Mike you’re wrong simple as that

[@christmas10023]

I Agree with Guy 👋

[@atangbingana283]

Mikes a level headed guy always gives great commentary. Doesn't deserve the whole "capitulation " spiel but this is the nature of the casino business we are all in. Took it on the chin like a champ. We move on and go again.

[@kevinkopek9455]

Mike Wilson was wrong all of last year, and he's been wrong all of this year. All last year he said the market was going to bottom at the 3000-3200 area and reiterated that prediction earlier this year. He has never retracted that. Next they'll bring in Harry Dent and Peter Schiff and tell them how prescient they are.

[@champstar9669]

From the song - "You're So Vain." "Well I hear you went up to Saratoga...and you're horse...naturally WON." Love that song because of that line. As a teenager, I insisted on stopping there on a family trip out East. Got my Racing Form the day before. Bet on a horse named Fadetta. Won like a champ as a big fav in the feature race. Won enough to buy a T-shirt. That was a treasured item for many years. By far the most beautiful racetrack in the country.

[@keto6789]

Permabear Club

[@1309gsk]

gt video and nvely is that you have invited morgan stanley startegist. the question that i have is , is the market taking into account 215 dollar earning wit dollar 98 and interest rate 5.25? all the best. stay safe and cool

[@prathusingh7642]

Thank you guys! You guys are awesome. Love Dan H talks straight with no BS ! Not a fan of Adami. Sorry man! Wilson: the smartest and what can I say about Danny: my hero

[@robertfiorillo3227]

Wilson has a great mindset and think is prediction is coming true soon. 👍

[@RiskReversalMedia]

We shall see

[@leestack]

Great show as always. Just a thought - might private equity move the near-term liquidity challenge out to later this year or into 2024?

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Good point!

[@colacola253]

Can’t believe you make the big bucks

[@KK-pm7ud]

You should try Clementine's Creamery when you're in St. Louis. Solid.

[@swanson_]

Great discussion

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@MartinRobertHogue-ne9gm]

Love show! On fast the other night you claimed that your guests have all different perspectives- bear & bull. Not sure that’s the case; i won’t say “echo chamber” but opinions could be broader.

[@steplaland]

Stubborness, that's all it is. $spy 420 should have been your stop. It had been in that trading range from 380-420 for 7 months, and then once that was taken out, May and June /July went ballistic. Aren't you all traders and watching levels?

[@anthonygaudio3270]

Thank you for this great show. Mike Wilson is great. Love the podcast and my favorite CNBC hosts.

[@mathyderabadi5513]

Mike, please don’t let down your followers.

[@jays9870]

Truly a gift to get ample time such that Mike Wilson can expound his views. Thanks Team RR, hope D-Mo knocks them dead at the Spa!

[@mattisseeyewear9681]

You guys are prophetic and doing an amazing service to those people that can understand the writing on the wall…❤

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Thank you!

[@dapred00]

Prophecies did not go well as they stated.

[@weho_brian]

being bearish right now isn't a bad thing, in fact im probably neutral on things. being bearish 6 months ago was the problem. I know hindsight is 20/20 blah blah but really think about it. If the S&P is already down 30%, do you really think its like to go down another 10-20%? At that junction the risk is to the upside, not the downside.

[@hafeld8348]

Price does dictate a change in one's view.

[@sebfox2194]

31:31 The guy with the glasses had it right when he said "crises" as the plural of crisis. Then the other dude to his left (in)corrects him back to crisises. A good example of how just saying something with confidence gets people to believe that it is correct.

[@keto6789]

So these guys are waiting for "the big crash" when all along they could've bought into QQQ at the start of the year and been up 40%! THIS is why traders don't beat the sp500!

[@SMTraz]

These 4 bears have gotten plummeted by the market this year. They missed out on so much.

[@eikoGoldstein]

You’re right. It is very difficult for most professional traders to consistently beat the market. And amateur traders, who pay fees, are sure to lose. But these guys are addicted to the market. I am amazed how much hot air they exude in the process of trying to predict the market’s short term movements. In a better world, their considerable intellect would be engaged in productive pursuits.

[@journalofstitchery9584]

Wonderfully excited too

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Can't wait!

[@Yomamaissoo]

Bears 😂😂😂

[@antonioranaudo5515]

Isn’t it true the recessionary head and we’re just coming out of it backwards🥱😮🤦🤦

[@jacobhodson4553]

I can confirm, St Louis is the worst large city in America. But I’m a Kansas City homer so I’m also biased

[@kingkang6877]

This goes to show that no one knows where the market is headed generally in the short-term (

[@BigErnieBrown]

Mike jumped the shark

[@roger_rogers]

dan still short tesla?

[@港完]

Mike,,, hiw much money you missed on your cleints fund?

[@Isaacr90]

It's insane for Danny to act like he didn't understand CNBCs format....

[@jonathonwagner2166]

If chat GPT hadn't come out, none of this AI stuff would be happening.

[@hafeld8348]

Vinnie and Porter are making big money even in this market. They are true traders not tied to a certain outcome.

[@colacola253]

Thought the show was called “fast money” lol

[@atun77]

These guys are the new Jim Cramer 2.0! Do the inverse and make money which is the main goal in the first place.

[@I_Love_Figs]

Back in 00 after the run up the DAXK(price index) was trading at 3% div yield when the 10y Bunds were trading at 6%. But the puts before that expired worthless. The lesson is expected return matters but only on the long side.

[@I_Love_Figs]

By the way UNH didn't participate in the bubble at all so there can be corners even in large cap quality when almost every large cap index in developed markets went nuts.

[@pkanchib]

Must hear… information & insights every minute from a talent pool who are highly credible … this podcast is a must for anyone who invests

[@mikeplaced3111]

When Mike reverses his call in Sept what will Guy & Danny do, cry? Or be Mad Dog in Cannonball - "if you're going to be a bear be a grizzly!"

[@mikeplaced3111]

@RiskReversal-Media don't understand response. Waiting to October Mike's next podcast

[@karlson68]

I think Mike would’ve been right if not for the Fed bank bailout.

[@MrAtul009]

But then he had an exit opportunity by changing his bear thesis ! One way I still respect him because he is very vocal about what he believes in!

[@keto6789]

Who cares if he's right? He missed out on a 40% QQQ run this year....

[@robertfiorillo3227]

​, Says the Monday morning QB.

[@MarkBlumenthal1]

@@keto6789 exactly - he was wrong, and led many people wrong the last 6 months in positioning

[@GWrex1skip]

What did The Fed do after The Great Reccession? QE right down to a Fed Funds rate of zero. What did non financial firms do? Debt...upon debt...upon debt. Monitor bankruptcies...but thats co-incidental. Better yet...look at the banks loan loss reserves. Its chilling....

[@aaazzzoaoa]

just leave a note showing I cared about tone like this although I think I need some strong bulls also on the show

[@Yomamaissoo]

After seeing what a dogmatic guy Dan is, Wilson changed his position immediately 🤣🤣🤣

[@GWrex1skip]

I love Mike Wilson. But where I disagree with him is this: "We are in a Bear Market rally...and this is the end of the secular Bull Market that started in 1987." Ralph Samuel Elliott 's theory is still alive and well. The very best Technical Indicator known to man. Wave 1 started in 1987...we had a double 2 Wave...2000...then in 2008. Wave 3 completed and Wave 4 commenced during the Pandemic...Wave 5...until 2021. All waves were within Elliott's guidelines. We have a massive inversion of the yield curve. The financial distress of non-financial firms is higher than the Great Recession ...(although as to this date...we aren't experiencing one). China is contracting. The Euro-Zone is contracting. Yes, a synchronized global Reccession. This one is going to be horrible... The FED was late to the party. We are just beginning real restrictive monetary policy (i.e. short term rates are greater than "Core Inflation "). Usually , on a 3 year...4 day chart...my VIX trade would have been in the bag. This time around...a 3 year one month chart....by November...2023....14:1 payout on the UVXY...then reverse it...big money to be made. On a 3 year...1 month chart...its an Elliott Zigzag...at a 76% retracement....it could go as high as 86%. After that? DEATH....

[@colacola253]

Clowns will always be clowns

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Thanks for all the comments

[@Meishach2112]

The bear skin rug show.

[@Karim.711]

Unfortunately Dan didn’t back down since January and pushed very strongly, the bear argument. As an expert he did persuade many to miss the rally. Humble can be more honest than trying to excuse

[@Isaacr90]

Dan is too emotionally bearish on NVDA....it probably will have a correction....months if not years after he started shorting 😂

[@ocvegasproperty]

How can you short the hottest stock on the market? Suicidal tendencies

[@paulrobbo321]

If I had a $ for every manager who was overweight energy the Monday after Saudi announced the production cut but then when oil moved very little, they were allegedly overweight tech. MW did get it wrong but I fear that these things are not as clear cut and buying or significantly adding now would be too brave for me.

[@Everyman.0314]

I respect MW. And agree with his views. But like DM said, MW should stop pandering. He threw out some superfluous comment suggesting AI will increase productivity. He doesn't really believe this. Will someone please explain to me how AI will have a continuous material impact on earnings?

[@donpasulka]

“We don’t like the market trading at 20 X forward earnings unless we bought cheaper than that, in which case, we’ll try to pump it to 50 X forward earnings - or more if retail is that gullible.”

[@24theMoney]

BOA Sativa is the WORST. This is who Dan is referring to no doubt. Talking out of both sides of her mouth.

[@bruceheitmann6725]

Trifecta+1 hot hot hot

[@balrajsingh6177]

0:46

[@omarradi6527]

I think Mike is hard on himself because yes he was bearish in 2023 , but he has a great call in October 2022 by buying stock while being bearish based on the risk reward

[@johnschwartz7231]

Can you imagine if this guy was managing your money fired missed the whole bull market

[@mobetter9353]

cant have emotion in trading. i see u nathan moses

[@cookinthekitchen]

Happy birthday and moon landing

[@Eli_sab_eth]

All I hear is cranky old men, shouting at the market, holding T-Bills while watching many stocks up 30-40% ytd.

[@reddragon3518]

The guy with the funny hair is such an apologist for bad advice.