Must Draft Running Backs - 2024 Fantasy Football Advice

Must Draft Running Backs - 2024 Fantasy Football Advice
In today's episode I go over my must draft running backs for the 2024 fantasy football season!
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Time Stamps:
0:00 Intro
0:10 Bijan Robinson
7:09 Derrick Henry
11:29 Jonathon Brooks
17:22 Tyjae Spears
19:44 Nick Chubb
23:28 Outro
#2024FantasyFootball #FantasyFootball #FantasyFootballAdvice

[@MyNameJim]

Welp, at least Arthur Smith kept Bijan healthy and fresh for THIS year 😂

[@kelseykjarsgaard5774]

Yeah he my guiotine rb lol

[@dh-uo4lt]

Allgeier is still too good of a powerback for bijan to get ANYWHERE near CMC volume. If im at the one yard line, id rather have allgeier just pound it in

[@roswellsatterwhite3906]

@@dh-uo4lt not so sure about that, Art Smith lost his job largely because he wasn’t utilizing Bijan properly. I have a feeling the front office won’t let the same mistake be made twice. Morris has already said they’re gonna use him like CMC, so I see a jump from 14 touches a game to around 20.

[@braydonbryan6901]

@@dh-uo4lt Do not fade Bijan. He’s a top 5 pick all day in most formats. He’ll be used a lot more with the new staff. He’s the most talented back in the league. He’ll be running behind the best offensive line. Cousins increases Bijan’s value as well. I think it’s hilarious that it’s a conversation.

[@neverbeforeseen160]

This is my favorite fantasy channel. Keep up the great work.

[@SpencerGames99]

Enjoyed the livestream yesterday. I wanna see more live underdog drafts!!

[@greenleafnumber70]

Thank you

[@ALFAJERKBFH]

Chubb doesn't even seem like he's too confident about how much time he'll play this year. I wouldn't even take him on Underdog. 10 bucks says D'onta Foreman starts more games than Chubb this yr.

[@rjt.3639]

Foreman lowkey could be a good pick in underdog for the redzone carries

[@mattabell8372]

Chubb could easily start less than half the season, you're correct. FWIW there was a video of him doing some full body weight single leg lateral jumps a week or two ago. It was claiming to be on the repaired knee.

[@kelseykjarsgaard5774]

@@ALFAJERKBFH I mean his knee got crushed to bits and it's already been injured badly

[@vegansnevadi3122]

You think foreman gets starts over Ford? No way dude this is fords backfield now he’s gonna have a year

[@Conradmlarsen]

I’ll take the bet, let’s do $20 though, so I can at least buy lunch.

[@CryptoGrady]

🔥🔥

[@Rickyl1012]

Hey Nick ! I won my 14 team no keeper league now I get to chose my draft spot. What should I pick ??

[@gsp427]

How early would you be comfortable taking Bijan? I keep garrett Wilson in the 16th so I have a wr1 locked up already

[@J.O.A.T.s]

I'll be happy to see all my League draft Nick Chubb this season

[@timholstad2723]

The fact that Chubb isn’t fully ready to go makes him a full fade for me. The only RB his age who has ever recovered from a catastrophic knee injury was AP, and AP was basically the same guy as before the injury. I would need that type of recovery for me to want to draft Chubb, and right now he still can’t even make cuts on the field (which is normal for this injury). I just don’t think he’s going to be very good or very confident as a runner this year. He’s still on the team because he’s a captain and a fan favorite, not because they still want him to be their main guy. He took a massive paycut to stay. They’re not going to rush him back, he’s probably not going to rush back, and if Ford or Foreman or both are playing well, they may legit just not bring him back at all this year. The odds of him coming back to full health at his age is so incredibly low. He has like a 5% chance of being useful for fantasy this year, y’all can have him. If I’m wrong, so be it. But betting on extreme outliers as a process play is not a fun bet to make in any round, especially as early as Chubb goes.

[@Panthers8912]

This argument completely discounts all medical advances. You’ve already generated your own example of a rb doing this, over a decade ago, when the average time to heal was far longer.

[@user-ce4bq6bz1r]

Chubb just went rd 5 in competitive redraft PPR...thats the earliest Ive seen..I got him between rds 8-10 a month ago

[@mclovinlife4018]

I’m the king of taking a WR every year with my first round pick, but I think I’m going bijan this year. Cousins will be checking down so much. You’ve got me thinking I might go hero rb as well. I love fantasy football!

[@MuffffinMan]

I almost never draft a running back in the first five rounds but I had one League this year where Bijan fell to me at the 1.09 and then I still had breece hall on the turn around at 2.02 so I doubled up. I didn't draft another running back until like around 12

[@LScouser8]

What do you guys make of the Chargers RB situation. Ekeler said he was moved on because they wanted a guy who can carry the ball 300 times. What if the “starter” for the Chargers gets insane volume?

[@user-ce4bq6bz1r]

Brooks is going rd 6-7 in competitive redraft PPR...the upside is worth it if you can draft a solid all around team for sure

[@marcusdow5356]

Until I hear Brooks is actually playing, I can’t take him. He’s still being eased back into camp. As of right now he’s still hurt and we are two months away.

[@prestonvarner611]

you dont need brooks to play 17 games. even if he plays the last 8 games thats fine. he is a late round pick lol

[@marcusdow5356]

@@prestonvarner611 it’s not like he’s going round 12. The Panthers have no reason to rush him back to playing. New coach young QB. They will carefully give him work which means he might not really get ramped up until week 12. And it’s not like their offensive line or offense in general is elite, more like below average. Not to mention Hubbard is still there on the last year of his deal. Why not run Hubbard into the ground and save your 2nd round pick future RB when he is healthy. Until they say he is definitely playing I’m not touching him at his ADP.

[@roswellsatterwhite3906]

@@prestonvarner611eh, rookie coming off an ACL tear in a horrendous offense is a pass for me. Best go with Trey Benson, similar talent profile but on much better projected offense behind an aging RB.

[@prestonvarner611]

@@marcusdow5356 he is around the rb30 off the board. That late there is no one else with upside like brooks.

[@marcusdow5356]

@@prestonvarner611 he isn’t even taking snaps in camp yet. He is going into the season hurt. Why draft somebody who’s hurt. Oh yea upside. You are just optimistic over injuries. Most of these situations the guy doesn’t play as much or gets rushed back and gets hurt.

[@fredlogan327]

It's all about the extra points from the next available guy at that positions on the margins and the variability of points. There are less running backs than receivers, so naturally there is a quicker depletion of available talent. The week-by-week variability of points for most receivers is less stable than running backs who also catch. Running backs that have 900 yards rushing and 350 receiving are more valuable than a 1,200 yard receiver. I usually draft RB, RB, WR, RB, QB, RB, etc. There are usually a ton of waiver pickups for receivers who emerge but start out obscure. There are also a ton of really good rookie receivers to stash later.

[@ref233]

Of course we need to draft Bijian, he’s RB2 or RB3. We need to draft Breece Hall and CMC as well!

[@HardlyCommon]

Man I just don’t see the incentive for Carolina to rush Brooks back from this injury or to push his touches in year 1 following the ACL tear…I have taken him a couple of times because you said to, but I think I’m willing to miss out in redraft

[@IamNoTaBotBruh]

Hey Nick 👋

[@Bgl-fz3cs]

Yeah I’m definitely passing on Nick Chubb regardless

[@MrRenaud111]

On nick chubb, Ford is starting week 1 but yes if Chubb is healthy then he starts.

[@friendlyfire-yt]

ir spot makes chubb a nicer target

[@dh-uo4lt]

EVERYONE is taking the over on Derrick Henry TDs…which means it will DEFINITELY happen 😂

[@jeremyseibert3282]

All in on Derek Henry and Spears, completely out on Chubb and Brooks. They wont be 100% all season.

[@TheyCSmith]

Baltimore is a run heavy team so Henry should be a no brainer. I hope ppl sleep on him in my draft

[@davidrice790]

Taking a rookie RB coming off a major injury on a bad team sure nothing could go wrong lol😂

[@kingrex1931]

The idea that Bijan Robinson wasn't given any opportunity last year. Bijan was 9th in total opportunities (carries + targets) and he was 9th in scoring. Tyler Algeier isn't as good as Bijan, but he isn't a bum either. Good coaches use all their weapons, not just one guy.

[@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA]

Carries closer to the end zone are worth significantly more than those between the 20's. Bijan wasn't used nearly as much as he will this season in that area. Giving him 18% of the teams carries inside the 5 is a joke

[@kingrex1931]

@@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA I agree that Bijan will get more usage this year, but he wasn't rotting on the bench last year the way people act like he was. In the redzone Bijan had 31 redzone opportunities (carries + targets) and Algeier had 37 opportunities, so it wasn't a massive difference that everyone acts like it was. Inside the five they both had 6 opportunities, so the issue was that the Falcons were just bad. It should also be noted that targets are higher value than rushing attempts and Bijan had 86 targets versus Algeier's 23 targets. Everyone who said that Bijan was a "can't miss" fantasy asset in the mid first round are just using Arthur Smith as a scapegoat.

[@Bubbachuck4910]

Wait, you don't want to overload on RB early, but at the same time the dead zone of RB's is after the 7th RB? I have always found RB heavy 2 of my first 3 picks makes the most sense with so many quality WR's but that is just me. I hate trying to use the waiver wire for RB's like trying to find closers in baseball.

[@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA]

2 in the first 3 is fine. By heavy I mean robust RB which is 3 in the first 5. 2 RB's in the first 5 rounds is the way to go IMO unless you want to do Hero by taking a RB in round 1 or 2 and then waiting until the 6th for your second

[@hunterwagner4130]

@@FantasyFootballAdviceFFAis that just for underdog or redraft too? For redraft this year I damn near like 3 RBs first 3 rounds if I can get a trio of Bijan/CMC/Breece + any 2 of (Gibbs/JT/Saquon/Henry/Kyren/Pacheco/Achane/ETN) Them 3 plus Kupp in the 4th, Richardson in the 5th, SPAM WR after and probably get Engram at TE at his ADP… That’s a wild team imo bc those RBs all have top 5-7 potential and there’s plenty of decent WR options. The value over replacement is just higher for RBs so get them early is my philosophy

[@Troutani]

​@@hunterwagner4130 in a lot of mock drafts I also have taken thee RBs early because it feels like you can find quality WRs much later

[@davidgould6351]

⁠@@hunterwagner4130exactly this. I came away from a draft with Breece, Saquon and Henry in the 1st 3 because people are so adamant that WR early is the way. I’m sorry but as much as people love the early WRs, the second rounders of like WR12-20 when compared to their latters are not as big of difference makers as the RB5 is to their later mirrors. Still came away with good WRs overall, Metcalf, Cooper and Godwin for a main 3

[@rollotomassi4768]

You do understand Pollard played for the Cowboys. He came out of Memphis as a great receiving back and good outside runner. Do the Cowboys every run screens, wheel routes, or motion him into the slot in 5 years? No because we are dumb. We make a guy that was never a full time between the tackles runner, coming off and injury into just that. Dumb. I Tennessee uses him right he'll be great.

[@braydonbryan6901]

Call me crazy-- there are certainly players who probably have to go before Bijan - CMC at the top of that list. That being said, I don’t hate seeing Bijan go #1 in a draft. - that’s true in most formats for me as well. Go watch Bijan play, outside of CMC no one is doing the ‘Super Hero’ work Bijan is doing at the position. I think the Cousins addition enhances Bijan’s value. He’ll get more favorable looks as well as more opportunities heading into his second season. He was splitting time with Tyler, also missing out on a lot of redzone work. With the new HC this will not happen again. All respect to the top guys, Hall included, but Robinson is too talented. Bijan to me is MUST TAKE outside of the top 3. Amazing value after. Barring injury he’ll be the consensus #1 fantasy player for the next two seasons.

[@ChadShadel]

I think you are too early on Jonathan Brooks. Yes he will be a stud but I don't think its this year. He is likely to miss the start of the season and they will be in no rush to risk his long term health by pushing him back quickly. I think it more likely they bring him along slowly in a committee with Chuba Hubbard.

[@legendoftrey4024]

Richardson R. Odunze C. Watson Jimmy Gibbs Mike Evans Garrett Wilson Devon achane Puka Kyle Pitts Brian Robinson Zamir White Who would you trade and for who

[@bigjuarmando2657]

I've won my 12 team half ppr league 2 years in a row, not drafting an RB in the 1st 5 rounds. NFL is doing the same thing.

[@chrisrhodes2]

I need to play in Underdog because players in mocks on Fantasy Pros go much higher and no way these guys fall in my league draft like Underdog. Are we sure Underdog isn't lying? They pretty much bribe the entire fantasy industry to promote their site. It's not like American business is known for honesty 😉

[@therealfranklin7675]

Bestball and regular fantasy drafts are completely different. what i’ve learned in regular fantasy mock drafts is that RB’s go VERY early.

[@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA]

Your FantasyPros mocks are against computers and not people. Underdog is a 3 WR format so that's why ADP's for RB's fall.

[@MegaMonk1992]

How do we know so confidently that Pollard won't return back to his efficiency when he is not the lead back...? He had an incredible season behind Zeke just 2 seasons ago. Also, can anyone help me understand why it would be true that the 2nd half of the season is more important than the first?

[@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA]

I think that could happen, but if he’s not the lead back then that means Spears is the starter. And the 2nd half matters more (especially for later picks) because that’s when byes and injuries rack up. So you’ll actually need those later picks. But also that’s when the playoffs is. You’d rather a player post RB 1 numbers in the playoffs and not over the first month. Especially when you’re not going to start them over the first month because the guys you drafted early aren’t on bye or hurt yet (most likely)

[@Jokenword]

Logic is telling me Breece, but my heart as a Falcons fan is telling me Bijan

[@braydonbryan6901]

Call me crazy-- there are certainly players who probably have to go before Bijan - CMC at the top of that list. That being said, I don’t hate seeing Bijan go #1 in a draft. - that’s true in most formats for me as well. Go watch Bijan play, outside of CMC no one is doing the ‘Super Hero’ work Bijan is doing at the position. I think the Cousins addition enhances Bijan’s value. He’ll get more favorable looks as well as more opportunities heading into his second season. He was splitting time with Tyler, also missing out on a lot of redzone work. With the new HC this will not happen again. All respect to the top guys, Hall included, but Robinson is too talented. Bijan to me is MUST TAKE outside of the top 3. Amazing value after. Barring injury he’ll be the consensus #1 fantasy player for the next two seasons.

[@rollotomassi4768]

Look what Breece did with a mediocre Oline and terrible qb play. I'm taking Breece. Jets added Tryon Smith who was outstanding last year, drafted a young stud tackle and traded for a quality T/G.

[@braydonbryan6901]

@@rollotomassi4768 Breece is tremendous - maintains his value in PPR especially However Bijan is the greater talent, in the better situation, likely to see more volume. He’s undervalued and really should only be in conversation with CMC.

[@Cwis1]

Do you think breece or bijan is going to catch more passes. I personally don’t know as breece won’t get as many dump offs as last year with rodgers but bijan should get similar usage in the passing game to cmc

[@braydonbryan6901]

@@Cwis1 All the optimism you could have for Breece should be had for Bijan and then some. Bijan and Breece hold a similar target count - this is despite Bijan being severely limited in snaps by the coaching staff. Breece caught more passes, but this is due to - as you said - dump off passes. He’ll be used the same way - but certainly won’t get 90+ targets again with Rodgers healthy - less dump off passes, I’d have to look at Aaron Jones usage to get an idea. Breece is a great pick but I think it’s hilarious anyone thinks this is close. Love Breece - but Bijan is more talented, in the better situation, should mirror the same usage. Update: the most receptions Aaron Jones ever saw with Rodgers? 59. In Bijan’s rookie season, where he was deliberately forced off the field- he had 58. I’d feel terrible if he doesn’t pan out like I think - but there’s no argument that can be made against Bijan. There’s no discussion between Breece and Bijan - especially in terms of upside. In a PPR league the only players that should go in front of Bijan are CMC, Lamb, and Hill. St. Brown is a safe bet as well. Bijan and Breece are close in floor, but Bijan is a building above in ceiling. RB positional value and rarity plays a big factor in value. Bijan is a superhero talent at RB, the only other is CMC.

[@lbstherock5]

There you go selling HOPE-ium. Cmon man CHUBB & BROOKS.

[@ProcessOverResults]

Stat of the day: Josh Jacobs

[@Lloydio420]

green monsta

[@rselga808]

I am convinced that Arthur Smith was not able to draft Bijan Robinson in his Fantasy leagues

[@rollotomassi4768]

Pollard is 6'0" 215lbs. Spears is 5'11" 195lbs. Spears just isn't built to get a 25+ touches.

[@tccandler]

Chubb won't play this year. If he does, it will be at 60%. Wasted pick, IMO. Ford is a steal.

[@ALFAJERKBFH]

I play in a 10 man league and I've had more success going WR/WR than RB/RB. You can always find a RB during the middle of the year who'll get a healthy workload, but The chances of finding a WR on waivers who'll get 10 targets a game is rare.

[@matthewdennis1739]

I agree, but I think one of each is generally more optimal than both.

[@mrblitzer8705]

I was able to grab Puka and Achane off waivers last year. True I got super lucky, but just to say it depends on the year....and getting lucky

[@ryanmatzner7757]

I feel it's the opposite...

[@matthewdennis1739]

@@ryanmatzner7757 I think in general it's easier to find WRs....but to find a RB you can plug and play for more consistent points is more easy to predict if that makes sense.

[@jamesjoseph5707]

Just putting this out there. The Ravens have lost their starting RB for the year in week one 2 years in a row now. It's a Bad Oman. Tread carefully with Henry.

[@qualicumjack3906]

Its a bad Jordan

[@qualicumjack3906]

Its a bad Jordan

[@djkevgar]

True but I think a lot of that is just JK Dobbins being a bust lol

[@lotus956]

I still hate Arthur Smith.

[@user-em5rk5tb5b]

You know you’re not seeing things cleary when you start to talk about ‘disrespect’

[@Jesseg-rj6xf]

Nah bro. I ain’t drafting no players from the falcons. Bijan is a no!

[@andreas3761]

no, none of them