Myanmar's junta could be on its way out. What happens next?

Violence in Myanmar has been ticking up as the war between the military and opposition groups may be heading towards a decisive phase.
Such groups have been winning swathes of territory, leading many to wonder whether an ethno-federal system may be in the cards. Nobel Peace Prize nominee Maung Zarni told TRT World he reckons that a deeper fracture is coming.
#Myanmar
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[@oceantransistor]

Free Myanmar from authoritarians. The land is for the people.

[@ryanaustin5844]

Thank you

[@smitprmr]

Bring khilaft and impose jaziya. 😂

[@helloliwei7028]

lol

[@anywaytechreview]

@@smitprmr please dont bring your nonsense to everything and learn about the myanmar post coup civil war after 2022 which still continue today between burnese regime and myanmar pdf rebel and its allies

[@Paitekahi]

Yes, the land will belong to the ethnic militia, which may be worst than the current Junta.

[@user-sy3od3jn2s]

Zarni is nominated for Nobel peace prize .What on earth is happening? Is this a joke?

[@xynorus]

hypocrisy Geo politics

[@user-sy3od3jn2s]

@@xynorus I can't never imagine the class of noble prize would fall that far. There are thousand of activists in the world who are far more qualify than that ZarNi.They are doing under many threat meanwhile Zarni doing in a nice comfort room in UK. This is fking pure joke. As a Myanmar , this is a fking joke.

[@aungmyatthu_mmr]

Ilr, this is the biggest joke I ever heard. Such a disgrace for the people.

[@debojitsaikia7870]

You too Zee CT🎉 Ghar se bahar se by ❤❤ ❤ ❤ fr❤❤a❤​@@xynorus

[@Reflection_Wave_2023]

This is how Myanmar is one side grab the power for many decade and the other side with free rider roaming.

[@raimecutie]

Need to fight corruption and teach integrity in everything to lead better future for the country success

[@t.kingsgate7834]

Zarni intentionally avoided to mention Arakan Army in the west of the country near Bangladesh while speaking about areas “snatched away “ by Karenni, Chin, Kachin etc. He is clearly biased person. 😂😂😂

[@brianoconnor24601]

Hmm all those "experts, analysts and specialists" saying junta is going to fall but in reality it is quite far from over. There are still a ton of fighting age males (poor souls) that can be conscripted and the junta is already planning a major offensive towards central burma after rainy season. End game for the junta and future of Myanmar depends on Russia and China. China's ambition for a sea exit to indian ocean will divide the country in half with Kachin, North Shan, Chin and Rakhine either becoming proxy states or rogue actors. Some Chinese media is already saying that PLA should deploy into Myanmar to secure its interests which can become very real being a P5 member country. Balkanization is becoming very real for Myanmar I'm afraid.

[@Watermelon_warrior582]

Yes I am also scared I don't know where to live if that happens (i hope it never does) like I have so many families members all across the country

[@jadedtermite2513]

Hypothetically if the pdf does oust the junta, will the ethnic groups simply make peace with each other and form a union or will they go down the path of fighting each other?

[@brianoconnor24601]

@@jadedtermite2513 PDF do not have the firepower to oust the junta. They are too fragmented and under gunned. It is the EAOs/EROs that are actually pressuring the junta militarily. If the junta falls, there are a number of possibilitie of course. 1. NUG assumes central governing body and DASSK returns to power. In this scenario, NUG will have a monumental challenge which is to to fulfill the promises and obligations it has made to the EAOs/EROs and establish a federal system not to mention to reign the PDF into a professional standard army. It will not be easy to establish confidence building with EAOs/EROs due to the fact that NLD government sided with the armed forces in the conflicts with EAOs/EROs during its term. 2. Changes in senior military leadership. MAH probably has an agreement with deputy junta leader that is a political way out. MAH to assume presidency and deputy junta leader assumes CIC role. One way or another if a hardliner takes the head role, expect the junta to reform the state to a complete dictatorship like DPRK; complete internet blackout, rations, every household to submit a conscript etc. Resistance forces as a whole will have trouble toppling the junta as they still have the support of Russia. 3. Myanmar's economy crashes but junta still in power because of the loyalty of its armed forces. Despite the media portraying soldiers as disloyal and deserting, they actually have a significant number of manpower supporting them. Massive economic crime, exodus, shut down of basic services and the country to turn into a complete warzone.

[@chithtooaung3883]

Dude. Stop watching MWD and MRTV. Do you really think PDF and small EAO from karenni and Chin are getting stronger by themselves during these few years. Pff.....😂😂. Wake up!!!

[@Watermelon_warrior582]

@@chithtooaung3883 are you green?

[@Bengalinationalist1]

Bengali leaders should think about the Myanmar power vacuum. It’s a big deal and opportunity and Bengalis are a mixed race, mixed religious and also a civilization, so no problem with mixing with the local people and make them one of us

[@andyyang2778]

battle happening in shan state : shows eastern shan which is the most peaceful region

[@ZackTuNan]

What does Zarni know? We will get our own independent Kachin nation.

[@n5688434]

you just proved his point

[@MohanMukhiya-fw6yn]

Hii❤❤

[@user-tn8uz6ce8r]

bfc

[@user-kx2fh1wp2r]

Mr.zarni is speaking more like a junta lobbyists.anything is possible if people are United.

[@MdOsman-ii5yu]

Please bring democracy in my country

[@Muslim.4675]

You should study Islam. THERE IS NO GOD BUT ALLAH. Muhammad (S.A.W.) is the last prophet and messenger sent by ALLAH. ALLAH IS ONE. ALLAHU AKBAR.

[@absentmindedshirokuma8539]

​@@Muslim.4675muslim world? Where majority ruled by authoritarian government?

[@MdOsman-ii5yu]

@@Muslim.4675 I am Muslim bro

[@davidlee3499]

🤣🤣🤣

[@grvc44]

​​@@Muslim.4675Lol hahahaha What allah will bring?

[@marketgarden8910]

An American State system may work but each state needs a National Guard Malitia. Wonder if the second amendment will stabilize the sitiatuon.

[@user-eb5kb2cp1l]

You guys asking the wrong person. Zar Ni is not the right person to ask.

[@yourdad602]

Why though?

[@minkhaing3211]

ဇာနီ ကေျမျပင္အေျခအေန ေသခ်ာသိတဲ့ လူေလး မဟုတ္သလို သတင္းဌာနေတြ interview လုပ္ရင္ ေငြရွာၿပီ ရပ္တည္ေနတဲ့ ငလိမ္ေကာင္ပါ ႏိုင္ငံတကာေတြက ေပးတာကမ္းတာေတြ နဲ႔ရပ္တည္ေနတဲ့ ငပ်င္း/ငလိမ္ေကာင္/တစ္ေယာက္ဆို ျမန္မာ ႏိုင္ငံသားတိုင္းသိတယ္ / ကမ႓ာ့ ကေတာ့ သူအေျပာမွာ ယံုၾကည္ေနလိမ့္မယ္! ကၽြန္ေတာ္ကေတာ့ ရီခ်င္😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@user-wk4ef5cx8k]

right

[@MDSOBUJMIA-wi4vk]

❤️❤️❤️

[@user-tt3df9di1d]

Assalamualaikum Islam Arkani Rohingya🇲🇲 😭😭🙏Myanmar Bangladesh Cox's Bazar Rohingya Camp ,🇲🇲🗣️🤲🙏😭😭👈.

[@AmirRad1701]

I have no respect for the people of Myanmar; just a few years ago, they supported the regime's massacre of Rohingya Muslims. Now that same regime is oppressing the Burmese people as well. This is what you call karma.

[@senghkumnhkum5207]

Zarni is totally wrong.

[@kaocakeman2964]

Myanmar's probably going to end up as a confederation of ethnic states - each with their own laws, government and armies - surrendering only nominal control over foreign diplomatic affairs to a central Burmese state. It will be an extremely decentralized and fragmented country. The central state would be extremely weak, national power largely decanted to the periphery and national standards outside of the most basic would likely be a pipe dream. It's an interesting opportunity to see if such a state with a weak core can exist and thrive in the modern context.

[@brightmakerchannelofficial2134]

That will be good for Myanmar. Because it’s can’t be a state. It shouldn’t be . Because it always target minority whoever in power . So I think ethnicity having their own country is good idea

[@stephenhan9680]

I think it’s inevitable with things going in current trajectory. The economy is in complete shamble, people have lost total trust in the system and the local currency. Everything cost sky high followed by shortages in every sector. Pressure is mounting for the Junta not just from the Ethnic groups on the outskirts but also from within. Ethnic groups have no trust in the military and have no intention of giving any inch of power on their states. Eventually, they’ll establish their own states if things stay in this stalemate with no improvement.

[@KenanTurkiye]

Syria of S.E. Asia, causing mass refugess crisis among other problems serving a side in a bigger expected crisis in the region?

[@SkAnywhere.]

from where the ethnic armed groups then get the arms?

[@Watermelon_warrior582]

We don't get support from other countries we buy it from the black markets Yes our people donate money online to our forces to buy supplies and weapons from the black markets

[@poom323]

Jstark

[@Watermelon_warrior582]

@@poom323 who's that?

[@atomica0914]

Bruh, that's blatant lies. Indian forces have been funneling all sorts of Arms and Training to PDF and KNA-B groups. Assam Rifles have actively taken part in operations inside Myanmar. The military Junta supports strong separatist groups like the NSCN, UNLF, and KCP so India wants to flush them out. China is supplying weapons as well as anti air missiles to Shan state groups​@@Watermelon_warrior582

[@james7286]

China, the three brotherhood alliance are armed and backed by China

[@jessicaregina1956]

What happened next is the thousands years juntA!

[@absentmindedshirokuma8539]

And thousand years of people Misery if that happen

[@Nyugget510]

Who tf make maung zarni activist,he is lobbyists

[@mbb701]

Game of thrones live version 😅

[@scarletreimi9565]

why always China and Russia? to be honest i watch almost every western news. they never miss change to include it. Please explain

[@kookie3834]

burma share border with china

[@scarletreimi9565]

@@kookie3834 you missed the point. I'm not in politics. Let's try watch more of those videos and see what they talk about Russia and China

[@kookie3834]

@@scarletreimi9565 in my eye china going around threatening everybody not sure about russia they dont want nato on their border i am also not a politics so yeah idk either

[@calvyncraven1141]

Because western media is bias. A recent study of western media reveals for the past decade 96%-100% news writen by western media writes negatively about China.

[@scorpionprince3927]

Demand Federal Republic of Arakan

[@monsterzan1072]

Ironic of that man to highlight the Rohingya slaughters by JUNTA years ago instead of how currently the Arakan Army is trying it's best to drive out junta forces and protecting EVERY race and religion in the region as mush as they could. Like, it's the fault of the poor civilians these Rohinjyas were mistreated. Dude is trying so hard to mix things up and blame-shift. Give me a break!

[@md.showvon5144]

What ever dream you see India and West never tolerate AA in the Bay of Bengal.

[@AmirRad1701]

I have no respect for the people of Myanmar; just a few years ago, they supported the regime's massacre of Rohingya Muslims. Now that same regime is oppressing the Burmese people as well. This is what you call karma.

[@abcxyz3028]

It's only because the young got hold of drones. If the military had gone high tech, they'd still have a stronghold.

[@xynorus]

wanna bet with me dude?

[@aungmyatthu_mmr]

You know Junta has a whole national level squad of Drones armed with China Drones since the start of the Coup, right?

[@user-xu6vq1hl1r]

AA ကဒုက္ခပေးတာလား စကစက ပေးတာလား မြေပြင် ကဒုက္ခသည်တွေအကုန်သိတယ် နိုင်ငံခြားနေပြီးဖင်မယားနဲ့ နှစ်ဖက်လုံးကစားနေရရင်လဲ အပေါက်ပိတ်နေ

[@heimnehttett1029]

lol

[@khantminthar964]

Free Myanmar

[@Hagoromo6]

This country needs to be separated into two countries like Korea.

[@subatomic10]

Junta is pronounced Hoonta

[@user-pc9mt1tq2h]

Free dom not free

[@FojilotBegum-tq1qz]

🇧🇩⚔️☪️ Alhamdulillah i am Muslim ☪️⚔️🇧🇩🛡️

[@aungmyintoo4635]

It is better those states become independence and to be new countries. Whereas the Bamar heartland will remain under junta.

[@beepbop8123]

Why should Bamar heartland be under Junta? Why not the democratic Burmese forces?

[@stephenhan9680]

@@beepbop8123Bamar can’t topple the military it has too strong of a grip on the mainland areas of the country. Also Ethnic groups and PDF aren’t strong enough to break into the mainland. Whereas military is much weaker along the countryside near the border. Ethnic groups are better off establishing their own states and raise the standard of living for those in the area as the situation right now is in stalemate.

[@beepbop8123]

@@stephenhan9680 I know but significant portion of bamar heartland has already been captured by PDF that Junta hasn’t been able to recapture for the past 2 years. It would be foolish to hand them back to Junta for free.

[@yarzarwellington5404]

@@stephenhan9680It is opposite. In central regions, where there was less conflit, the Junta bases are not strong. Most of the strong bases are always in ethnic ethnic regions. That is why loss of Laukkai and Buthidaung are significant. Junta best forces are there.

[@xynorus]

you don’t know what’s deal is on going between NUG and EROs, perhaps agreement would be free countryside first as well as blocked SAC earning routes. I believe war strategy is on going by understanding NUG announced that war will be raging in heartland regions soon. who knows all EROs will marching to reach NPD lately knowing their co-existence is biggest thread in this country. This strategic exists long ago before 1947. Burmese regions had been silenced so long to prepare raging war while waiting ERO reach them out.

[@FojilotBegum-tq1qz]

Bangladesh i's Very powerful and Muslim countrie,,🇧🇩☪️⚔️🛡️

[@yumaungkhant7559]

Btw the elected in exile had created The Interim government together with those Ethnic armed groups. All the ethnic armed groups had helped built the people defense force which is directly under control by the interim government. The forces are jointly fighting alongside with the ethnic armed groups

[@MK-gn1nz]

Maung Zarni is a "Rohingya" lobbyists not Myanmar. He is the last person on earth to put interest of Myanmar but rather OIC Islamist agenda

[@ImranIslam-to4or]

Nc video

[@user-lx5hl1if4w]

🎉 Great Job Ko ZarNi

[@akirasuzuki8378]

Zarni's comment, "all the neighbouring states immediate to Burma's borders - India, China, Thailand, Bangladesh, they are not prepared to allow the central organization of the military however criminal it is, to collapse." - This is totally baseless and irresponsible. These countries do not take side, nor do they interfere in the internal matters of Myanmar. Zarni should refrain from making such baseless comments without evidence, and TRT world should have asked for evidence or facts.

[@kshdenis5969]

True to that

[@mustafasoylemem2490]

Why trt is this much against miyammar military junta?

[@specialmilitaryops3319]

Bangladesh primeminister said united sates is trying to create a news state by bifurcating mynmaar to keep military baae there.

[@davidalexsebastiank6250]

Coz very soon there's going to be a civil conflict in Bangladesh, recent 2024 Bangladesh election had just 41% voter turnout compare to 2019 election which had 80% turnout

[@absentmindedshirokuma8539]

To which army group?

[@bobi200samatar6]

It won't surprise me if that is the plan

[@PankajKumar-sd9ux]

M😅😊

[@babludas-nq1tj]

ঞ

[@NagendraKumar-sw4dz]

Nagendra Kumar Jehanabad Bihar Ram Hanuman chalisa sangrah ok sir

[@fahmidachowdhury3572]

No 👎 👎 👎 👎

[@wesleyclayton1168]

Russia will not allow junta to fall 🍂

[@davidalexsebastiank6250]

It's china

[@MdAbdurRohim-dc7we]

এত বড় তথথ্যড্রদ্বগ্ট্থদড্রঘথদমৃ

[@user-hw8kb4wj9h]

I’m Rohingya

[@smitprmr]

Convert to Buddhism then. 😊

[@anywaytechreview]

@@smitprmr why would he convert to another religion if he is happy with his religion

[@smitprmr]

@@anywaytechreview Because buddhists were not happy with his presence especially after the destruction of Bamiyan Buddha in Afghanistan.

[@MdOsman-ii5yu]

​@@smitprmrwhy hankir fua

[@anywaytechreview]

@@smitprmr not true also what does bamiyan have to do with myanmar also you dont seems to know the ongoing burnese civil war between pdf and the burnese regime almost entire population except pro regime fans are against the regime ironically, the anti rohingya and anti regime AA and rohingya force both opposed the burnese regime and both accuse each other for supporting the regime so use your brain and grow up and study the war

[@Mark50x]

Just cause 2 in real life

[@ManchakraoGarudPatil]

GM

[@BOBK-jf4qx]

Not joonta...if you can't pronounce it, don't use it.

[@Watermelon_warrior582]

Bro this is not a grammar class or a KZbin gaming channel Junta is a french word that most people don't know how to spell and you are trying to correct that to a 59 years old man who don't get grammar classes when they are young and only knows basic English

[@BOBK-jf4qx]

@@Watermelon_warrior582 from Spanish junta, feminine form of junto, from Latin iunctus. Let me guess, you also don't sweat your/you're and should of/should have. Feel free to bastardize languages, I'll simply put don't recommend on someone who does not bother researching the subject. Adieu, monsieur pastèque.

[@Txiv.Tsov.Ev.Ntxawm]

Hopefully all the ethnic group have their own land country

[@zpqm693]

🤣🤣🤣👎👎👎

[@salam36198]

This jihadi news channel has now started to talk on Myanmar

[@MdSajalIslam-ju9mq]

❤️❤️❤️