Warren Buffett was wrong. Here's why.

[@Nanalyze]

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[@Nanalyze]

Joe P. here. Did I say I was one of the people who navigated all the pitfalls? If only. I not only fell into all of them in succession, in some cases I even came back for seconds. Sometimes it takes a while to realize that there are no shortcuts to wealth. ;)

[@joseguerrero2221]

I haven't had my ass handed to me just yet, except maybe with Tesla but it only makes up 5% of my portfolio. But I remember early in my career buying things like Blink Charging, or Chargepoint, Lithium Americas. I thought about buying Lucid because the "stock was cheap". As you can see I was very into the whole EV thesis and as a result would buy crap companies that had either 0 revenues or declining revenues/margins. All of these decisions were obviously the result of some crap I read on the Motley Fool or some trash internet investing site, shit even KZbin. I was lucky enough to discover my mistakes by reading The intelligent investor and other books by Ben Graham. I learned the difference between investing and speculating. And then I ran into your channel destroying charge point. Needless to say, I sold out of all of these positions and restarted my portfolio before I took any serious losses. Thank you Joe, your insights are wonderful and you have made me a better investor by preaching discipline and valuations. And you've introduced me to companies I didn't know existed. Thank you again.

[@Nanalyze]

It's great to hear that you're navigating the markets and avoiding pitfalls. Lots of people buy stocks based on whims (I used to do that a lot too) but eventually you start to learn (the hard way) and that's a lesson they won't teach you during any degree. It's the old school of hard knocks. Nothing makes me happier than hearing we helped someone avoid pitfalls because those people eventually become our biggest supporters. These days, you need to show people you can help them because many are becoming jaded with all the utterly Foolish tripe out there misleading everyone ;) Thank YOU for the kind words and we'll keep it up. Joe P.

[@tyrnosrsflexxbox1999]

I have recently learned that dumping half of a portfolio into any stock is anxiety inducing and reckless. Never again

[@Nanalyze]

It isn't just about sleeping well at night, it's the waking hours where you're stressing about the position every three minutes. Agree.

[@tyrnosrsflexxbox1999]

@@Nanalyze Yeah, it has robbed me of the joy that other parts of the day normally bring.

[@Nanalyze]

​@@tyrnosrsflexxbox1999 Stonks can be like an addiction, not an investment. Addiction is when the things you enjoy in life become extremely narrow while the opposite is when the number of things you enjoy becomes broader.

[@tyrnosrsflexxbox1999]

@@Nanalyze wise words

[@GrindThisGame]

I tried stock picking for 20 years, now I just buy the index.

[@Nanalyze]

It's a lot easier and your odds of underperforming the market fall to zero ;)

[@canigreggarsuta5171]

Always sharing wisdom. Thank you, Joe! Glad to be an annual subscriber

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you very much for your financial support Cani. You make these videos possible! Joe P.

[@sublyme2157]

Back in the late 90s I was a young 20 year old who somehow stumbled upon a Ken Roberts commodity trading course. I thought I'd just been given the keys to immediate, sustainable wealth, instead I received a valuable lesson in grifting.

[@Nanalyze]

Trading courses are a CLASSIC grift that many of us fall for. If you learned that in your younger 20s then you did well! Newbies need to get that "I'll be a BSD trader" idea out of their minds as quickly as possible. I wanted to get on a proper trading desk at Canary Wharf and tried super hard. It was probably fortunate that never happened because prop trading went the way of the dodo. Even being a proper institutional trader is tough. Retail has no chance. Joe P.

[@mustbeyalla]

Do you suggest for newbie investors building their first portfolio to really include an energy sector's stock like Exxon or Chevron just for the sake of diversification? And if so, I guess, not more than 1, right :D?

[@Nanalyze]

We suggest newbie investors make their own decisions based on their own convictions. We have a CVX vs. XOM piece coming out shortly. ;)

[@jimmcintyre1966]

Warren Buffett has long preached low-cost, broadly diversified index funds for pretty much everybody, which his bet against hedge funds confirmed. As KZbinr Ben Felix says, "Investing has been solved".

[@Nanalyze]

Bogle provides a great framework for that too: kzbin.info/www/bejne/Z328g2aeeZ2JfKM

[@ASenseofCapital]

I think all of us who are watching your videos are on the right path because doing your homework means sometimes consuming more boring, conservative and critical content than inhaling the 50th "these are the top stocks I buy this month" fool your own mind with investment porn wellness videos. I highly appreciate you've not chosing the easy approach of last mentioned option, even if you would achieve very easily a way higher number of followers. That's the difference of making money at the stock market and talking about it vs. making money on creating content while talking about the stock market. Cheers!

[@Nanalyze]

That is very well said, thank you. Yes, we see all the clout chasers out there chasing clout and realize we're not going to grow as fast but we have integrity so we're going to focus on helping people become better investors. Success will inevitably follow and the "three stocks I bought today for the thousandth time" people will eventually become dime a dozen while the quality brands will come out ahead.

[@ASenseofCapital]

@@Nanalyze You're definitely right, quality will endure.

[@Leo-pd8ww]

If you want to be a succesful stock picker, build a time machine.

[@Nanalyze]

It's certainly going to be a lot easier than the current methods. We hired a Romanian fortune teller to generate alpha and it was actually working. That is until we discovered she was outsourcing the work to a bunch of monkeys in Mumbai. Yes literally a bunch of monkeys who some Indian guy trained to throw darts at a copy of the WSJ. Then we found out they kept using the same copy of the WSJ so the data was stale. Long story short, we might have our Romanian asset, Nana Vanga, start drawing up plans for a time machine. Not a bad idea, thank you for the inspiration!

[@Leo-pd8ww]

Our gorilla Jacko beat the market (AEX) 18 out of 23 years. Every year he decides which stocks to sell and buy by picking bananas from dirt. This trading methodology is sufficient for Euronext Amsterdam, however more alpha is to be found at US markets and Jacko refuses to eat the US modified bananas. Perhaps a field experiment involving a different primate, possibly a 25 year old life coach, including covert observation monitoring consumption his favorite tiktok soda, which we can relate to stocks. If it doesn't work, the pursue of a time machine will be resumed.

[@Nanalyze]

@@Leo-pd8ww You sir, are on the right track. If you're ever looking for a job, we'd love to have your talent on our desk along with whatever primate alpha generation mechanisms you're working on.

[@ChunkyPizzaSauce]

I've been working at T-Mobile for about 15 years now and have been buying their stock since it's been public through ESPP, grants and on my own dime. I had a hunch that paid off, and now with dividends. However I still have no idea what I'm doing. I learned a bunch of crap lessons in 2020 because I followed the crap advice of KZbinr. At this point I only follow my gut which might be stupid but at least I can justify it based on what I'm reading, following, and whether I believe in that company's values. My next venture is FBTC which I bought heavily back in February. I also have a lot of crypto. I have no idea how this will pan out but It doesn't FEEL foolish. It also helps that I'm debt free and I don't have a family so my money is kind of pointless.

[@Nanalyze]

Money always has a point, mainly that it gives you freedom, which is great to have around. Choosing to not diversify increases volatility and the likelihood of larger losses, the point of this video. Buying a bitcoin fund heavily and then investing in a lot of crypto just plain sounds scary but YOLO. Hero or zero baby!

[@andreavandekleut6379]

guess who is also on YOU TUBE ???

[@kaloyanstefanov2388]

I legitimately cannot grasp the concept of not being able to beat wide exposure etf. I own individual stocks only. I have companies from all the sectors and sub sectors. 25% of my portfolio is in EU stocks and another 5% in Asian. Company sizes - everything from 500m to 100b. No single holding is larger than 2% of the portfolio. Unlike etfs I am able to structure my own dividend growth/income portfolio where I can adjust everything. If I think tech is overvalued for example I can reduce my exposure and lean towards defensive sectors like insurance and utilities. I just cannot believe that all that extra flexibility fails 95% of the time. You can even copy SPY without the 50 obvious underperformers and you will get slightly better return even if you are wrong for 5 of them. That being said I have just two years of execution - last year breaking even with SPY(equity gain, dividends excluded), this year I'm ahead of it with growing lead. Will update you in a decade 😉

[@Nanalyze]

With no single holding larger than 2% you are well diversified so you won't be able to do much damage. Your ability to configure your holdings allows for flexibility. It's a well-cited fact that the vast majority of professionals can't beat a broad market benchmark. Sometimes it's tough to distinguish between "an obvious underperformer" and a value opportunity. Over the long run, it's just really tough to beat a benchmark. Two years in is just getting started ;) Sounds like you are thinking things through intelligently and asking the right questions. There will be up years and down years. Someone will always be doing better. Have an objective strategy, invest regularly, and you'll do just fine. Thank you for the comment!

[@kaloyanstefanov2388]

@@Nanalyze Thank you for the feedback also for the videos. I got to admit the content that is being presented is a breath of fresh air in this space filled with absolute lack of integrity or depth. Very few places can be found that produce quality content and don't try to sell you hair loss products mid video 😄 Best of luck and I'm looking forward for more content 🙂

[@LammaDrama]

@@kaloyanstefanov2388 what are all the “sectors” and “subsectors” that you use? And how much research do you put into each stock before adding it to your portifolio? What do you look for exactly?

[@PCT_OUTLAW_2022]

Thank you for sharing invaluable lessons and knowledge.

[@Nanalyze]

You're most welcome, thank you for the feedback!

[@Longtack55]

Warren said Crapto has no utilitarian value, and more significantly, my missus congratulates me for not investing in it.

[@Nanalyze]

Happy wife, happy life

[@pytulyn1]

Pitfalls? Going big on the long bond ETFs TLT and beyond through 2022. Expecting the recession / crash that hasn’t arrived. Up is down and down is up. There’s so much wisdom in diversification. A famous Argentine boxer once said “experience is like a comb that you’re give once you’re already bald”. Lessons are always learned the hard way. One sided bets are a bad idea regardless of your level of expertise. Diversification. Great concept.

[@Nanalyze]

Totally agree that no matter how experienced you are, taking large bets is a really bad idea.

[@joegeezly9613]

But index investing is just so boring 😆😆. Great advice, really enjoyed this one 👍

[@Nanalyze]

Really glad to hear that, thank you!

[@eyaljosch936]

Insightful. Thanks. From one hand you claim that one should stay away from crapto, and I agree. But then Bitcoin appears as 2.4% of a recommended portfolio. Does that mean that you see Bitcoin substantially different than Crypto? If so, why? I value your opinion.

[@Nanalyze]

You're most welcome. We've written about bitcoin quite a lot so it's best to search our website and channel. Here's a piece we did a few years back (www.nanalyze.com/2022/07/bitcoin-crashing-burning/) and our opinions aren't likely to change very quickly over time.

[@Elias-yf5se]

Hey Joe, would be interesting to hear your take on the latest developments on $HCP. Do you sell now, speculate on a higher bid? This would be a great chance to learn how you navigate these situations with potential buyouts in general :)

[@Nanalyze]

This was discussed in detail on our Discord server minutes after the news broke ;) Short answer is that we're still at market rumors.

[@PremiumCollector.]

Thanks team! So VTWAX and relax? Got it! SPACs killed this newbie investor since 2021. CYXT pulled some borderline criminal ish, took my 4k and ran. Got keyword lucky with MTTR recently by *gasp* averaging down to 4.3 and eeking out a gain with the Costar cash/share deal. Now with the knowledge of "present fear of future uncertainty being fundamentally overpriced" I take gamblers premium and hope to one day invest in Quantigence! ❤

[@Nanalyze]

So moving from high risk to lower risk as you age? So like a plan. Remember, it's not binary. Consider running two strategies at once, just with a 90/10 allocation. Then shift that weighting as your risk appetite decreases :) We'd love to see you have a Quantigence portfolio someday :)

[@PremiumCollector.]

@@Nanalyze yes sir, the short prem port is always 50% liquid 50% short prem strats. The other is VTWAX ROTH IRA DCA, baby. The stock-picker port...well. Thanks, dad! I can't get enough Nana.

[@Nanalyze]

@@PremiumCollector. 🤗

[@marcush8982]

I put $5,000 into a Gorilla meme crypto coin it went to $1.75 mil when a Chinese exchange started pumping it, I was going to sell at $2mil but it dumped and ended up cashing out $40,000 😬

[@Nanalyze]

Sounds like a bad case of FOMO ;)

[@MicahDamger]

The trick to musical chairs is knowing when the music will stop.

[@Nanalyze]

@@MicahDamger Absolutely. Very tough for most investors to move from paper gains to real ones.

[@readwithGizmo]

Buffett never said most people should pick stock, he said the direct opposite. Most people are idiots in the stock market; Buffett is not one of them. The smart people should not obviously not diversify, here the idea is to EXPOSE yourself to the ideosyncratic risk, not ESCAPE it.

[@Nanalyze]

We're not making up what Buffett said. If the video says Buffett said something, you can be sure he said it. And he said lots of different things, some of which were contradictory.

[@Nanalyze]

"The smart people." Like the 75% of people who think they have above average intelligence? ;) What he said was that unless you're a professional, you shouldn't try to stock pick. So that eliminates about 98% of people who stock pick based on what social media pundits say.

[@paratirisis]

That was entertaining :-)

[@Nanalyze]

It needs to be otherwise our Tik Tok attention spans tune out real quick ;) Thank you for the feedback!

[@MicahDamger]

I’d like to see a video on greatest investor of all time who managed to beat the markets so exceptionally, he somehow managed to keep the media nearly silent on his existence, despite the occasional puff piece which portrayed a kind, scholarly, grandfatherly, and benevolent old man. His name is Jim Simmons, no one comes close to his returns, and he apparently discovered a super secret mathematical potion to beat market. He was eventually haggled on billions in tax evasion, tens of billions in offshore accounts, and he got his start with capital from a Columbian businessman and lucrative piping and tile business in Columbia. Totally absurd to anyone rational, and we can derive the obvious conclusions. No one has ever managed to nail down the facts, he was masterful with accounting practices and laundered drug money. Duh.

[@Nanalyze]

Now that sounds like a great story. We've talked before about the absolutely INSANE returns at Renaissance. Probably worth a video to be honest. Will mull this over ;)

[@missunique65]

we appreciate your efforts here such as they are..this was not one of your better videos in our humble opinion..we prefer when you dig into the data on the stuff you are very familiar with and have experience in...cheers!

[@Nanalyze]

You'll need to elaborate there on why you didn't find this valuable or think that somehow the presenter lacked the experience to discuss the topic.

[@lostboi3974]

Love this ❤

[@Nanalyze]

You love keeps us going ❤️❤️❤️

[@missunique65]

Let's not forget - Buffet could never reap those returns today. He has historically lamented things like the derivatives market as making his work harder for him.

[@Nanalyze]

That's probably true

[@pytulyn1]

As always the most elegant explanations. You guys are top shelf. So much garbage one has to curate on KZbin. Thank you. Javier

[@Nanalyze]

We couldn't be happier to read your kind words, thank you!

[@supertrash7102]

1:26 so you are a man of culture?

[@Nanalyze]

Above all else

[@textower3087]

For Cathie its her 70th Idea

[@Nanalyze]

:) If it's the next MIcrosoft, all I need is a little. If it's not, I'm glad I only invested a little.

[@missunique65]

if you look at warrens office, you don't see a computer. You see piles and piles of newspapers, books, annual reports. There is no cellphone - just one of those "princess" landline phones from the '60's. He orbits around a different sun than you and me.

[@Nanalyze]

Yes, yes he does

[@missunique65]

People like Chamath taught us how easy it is to fleece and then brag about it - a la they had it coming if they trusted with their money. They deserved to lose it all if they didn't see how spacs operate... did them a favor by showing them how easy it is... made 250 million and more on Virgin and Clover...got to buy a plane and live like a pasha and they got a kick in the ass. hahahaha..expensive lessons are the most memorable.

[@Nanalyze]

Yes, we started warning about SPACs since the first one debuted

[@GM4ThePeople]

S&P daily std deviation: 1958-1979 0.72%, 1980-1989 0.89%, ..., 2000-2023 1.13% Increasing market volatility suggests that the markets are in fact becoming _less_ efficient over time. I would argue this could be the case, if key, mostly private wealth-funded strategies are evolving to more stingingly & reliably separate the many newer and/or more foolish equity & options market participants from their earned & significant remaining intergenerational wealth. If so, one would expect to see an increasing dispersion of returns between identifiable classes of market participants. I.e., maybe repeated pump & dumps are big & "easy" money, if you are properly kitted-out for this kind of sport.

[@Nanalyze]

The poor stay poor and the rich get richer. 🎵That's how it goes.🎵 Everybody knows. 🎵

[@midwestcannabis]

🎉✌️

[@Nanalyze]

Pah-tay...

[@fairfeatherfiend]

Since 95% of managed funds can't beat the market, maybe the finance professionals are not as smart as you make them out to be. 2008 comes to mind. Also i have a friend in finance who makes tons of money, but she's a certified idiot.

[@Nanalyze]

We say - constantly - that 95% of managed funds can't beat a benchmark. Don't confuse intelligence with the ability to generate alpha. We all know people that work in various industries that are certified idiots.

[@fairfeatherfiend]

@@Nanalyze Thanks for the reality check. Love your channel.

[@Nanalyze]

Really glad to hear you love what we do! Thank you!

[@missunique65]

expert advice smug attitude SELF ANOINTED investment guru touch of cynical haughty voiced know it all anger bitter arrogance

[@Nanalyze]

Great description of many people who work in finance

[@jesseholliday3480]

Right? The author should realize that he also made money off of hype. I subscribed to the Nanalyze disruptive portfolio in 2020 when it was all hot and yet he loves to trash Cathie Wood. @Nanalyze you are doing well, just chill

[@Nanalyze]

@jesseholliday3480 We've noticed you've been coming around here leaving pot shot comments so you're going to get called out on a number of them. Firstly, if you're actually a subscriber, thank you for the support, but it doesn't sound like are. Half your comments we can't make any sense of. Are you saying we trash Cathie Wood? That's false. You certainly haven't been reading our content very much. We largely have nothing but favorable things to say about Cathie Wood. Maybe you have the wrong publication?

[@karenmay5240]

AUVIQ I lost a few hundred.......ok several hundred

[@Nanalyze]

Is that an OTC company? Always avoid those. Set a market cap cutoff limit and don't invest in micro/nano stocks. There are far too many traps.

[@MrMentalpuppy]

🪨📸 🤑

[@Nanalyze]

🚀🌙