Nassim Taleb on Black Monday, Fed, Market Lessons

Oct.16 -- The Black Monday crash was 30 years ago this week. "Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb was a trader for First Boston at the time. He made a lot of money while others lost fortunes. He recounts the experience with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker.

[@mikeblack9109]

The reporter was actually quite respectful and polite this time. Very good, doesn't interrupt

[@requiemforamerica8432]

Hifza ahmed yeah last time he was just an anti trump ideologue and kept trying to lead the interview and turn it into his own diatribe

[@jamrollz]

He reads the comments lol

[@ladgrove]

He's a great interviewer for NNT. They get on well.

[@Regular.Biceps]

Not a good idea to interrupt NNT

[@perezpepito104]

He is off the coke now.

[@dmonarredmonarre3076]

This is what happens if you get Tony Soprano to read books

[@vytautas456]

'It's very easy to sell people a seatbelt that only works if there's no accident, it's gonna be very comfortable. If there's an accident, they're gonna die, they're not going to complain.' Brilliant

[@adamblomberg]

Except their relatives and testing agencies.

[@5Gazto]

That doesn't make sense. What about the victim's relatives?

[@FirstLast-tx3yj]

@@adamblomberg they are also wearing seatbelts... In the markets everybody crashes at the same time

[@adamblomberg]

@@FirstLast-tx3yj In the markets yeah, not traffic accidents. It would be very obvious when the first hundred dies after wearing a seatbelt, undermining public trust.

[@FirstLast-tx3yj]

@@adamblomberg public trust is also lost in the case of crashes and bailouts where it is known that people hate the politicians during a massive economic crash

[@justinwr092]

Wow I found a youtube gem. Brilliant. The interviewer won't have too many interviews like this in his career. He looks like he's in awe. I'm working my way through all of Taleb's books btw. Life changing stuff.

[@philocleandes9302]

His notion of skin in the game is so refreshing. It can be used as a heuristic to cut through so much bullshit.

[@joeg8304]

He's an interesting contrast. As a person, he's a jackass who spouts of mindlessly. In his fields of finance, risk, and statistics he's an insightful force to be reckoned with.

[@MrDrey787]

@@joeg8304 he's a teddy bear who likes to act snarky on twitter and throw shade at IYI Harvard-Soviet fragilistas in his books. Why do u think hes a jackass?

[@colefaulk982]

MrDrey787 yea I’ve never quite understood why so many people say this stuff about him. He has his convictions and doesn’t waver from them. I don’t see how that makes him a jackass or someone who just “spouts off mindlessly”

[@Value-Investing]

Nasim is amazing, I really recommend his books especially if you are a trader or investor, so much to learn from him and so much common sense that nobody cares about in this market!

[@nv3796]

Thanks

[@nv3796]

Q> Why do people still use the Black Scholes models? NNT’s A> Because they don’t pay for there losses. Some one else pays for their losses.

[@kreteman777]

Love your channel Sven.

[@reehji]

Hi again, and I just ordered the incerto set ;)

[@marvindube3572]

Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. really thnx bro will di

[@mckeesk]

14:57 "We had options we had bought for $10,000 . . . they were selling for 17 million."

[@jamessalafatinos426]

in Yen

[@brycelanglotz971]

$100 -> $170,000 USD

[@jackglore4043]

nassim if you ever read this i just want to thank you so much... you saved my life.. jack from syria

[@FirstLast-tx3yj]

شو صار معك؟

[@joskxy]

great to hear! mind if i ask you what all ideas helped you and how? thanks

[@marcusmarcula]

One of his best interviews, albiet he rarely gives interviews unless they are short or to selective few.

[@enzodalfiorantunes5365]

What a pleasant conversation!

[@azwan1992]

Thanks for uploading. This is brilliant.

[@letsif]

One can learn a lot about life in general and human behavior, through understanding how one thing works. Taleb is on one of our teachers.

[@wdjaz]

"It's very easy to sell people a seat belt, that only works if there is no accident." mic drop @ 21:40

[@philocleandes9302]

In other words, so much of human need is dependent on only hearing what we want to hear.

[@KevinPillow]

The best part is the last 30 seconds, the Bob Rubin trade

[@braaitongs]

I would love to know which options he bought. I reckon retail investors do not have access to those options.

[@danielracovitan9779]

A legend. And the seatbelt analogy :)

[@gordongordon98]

This is great stuff. I about to begin my 3rd Taleb book. I am a big fan, also appreciate Peter Lynch, Charlie Munger, Joel Greenblatt...

[@yogeeswarpal]

The back spread he explains in the 2 minutes is the simplest it comes to explaining buying the OTM options as a portfolio holding.

[@Alloverthegolf]

How about new hunters for black swans isn't timing became better and better for short side of market?

[@blah148]

the bravery of this guy to actually call out the system is huge. We’re lucky that he’s as good of a teacher as a thinker

[@takashikashiwase3461]

Nassim Taleb for Historical Philosopher, Practitioner, Mathematician, writer, and Human

[@zelareka]

taleb is a very smart manbaby

[@grumfeldvanderspooijwanker1627]

@@zelareka At least he's not an actor.

[@LGseeker]

Naval from Angellist got me into Nassim 💯

[@Molloy1951]

Genius. Not only because he understands complex phenomenons but especially because he clearly identifies obvious consequences that just few people do.

[@mikefatah]

“Black Swan” was a great book and an outstanding work by Nassim Taleb. At the time of its release and around the time I first read the book, I didn’t realize how prolific of a role his book would play later on.

[@timfelsky]

Powerful

[@dundoderdumme3044]

Can anyone explain to me how you can be "set up to be harmed by a small move"? Can you buy options on volatility itself? Like a VIX option?

[@EnsonPortela]

Dundo Der Dumme no you cannot by options of vix! But you can arrange a position of puts and calls of any asset in a way that if the market moves a little you lose a bit; if the market moves a lot you make a lot! And that is independent of the direction that the underlying market moves!

[@dundoderdumme3044]

@@EnsonPortela Is there a name for it? Can I look up how it works? I really don't understand how you can aquire such a position with options :D

[@EnsonPortela]

Dundo Der Dumme a typical example is that you buy OTM calls and buy OTM puts. If the market moves a little or doesn’t move you lose a bit ( OTMs are cheap). If the market moves a lot your OTMs might become ITMs and you make a lot of money. I have seen options going from 5 cents to 10 dollars. Taleb says on the video that he bought 10k of OTM and sold it for 17M!

[@petarz9029]

yes, you *CAN* buy VIX options, and they are a great way to play volatility. If you are interested in options strategies, just search KZbin, Zacks has a channel with good options strategy content.

[@grumfeldvanderspooijwanker1627]

Wow, NNT with Bloomberg?

[@oloffrojd3368]

The master

[@purukarna]

Brilliant

[@231wildy]

His views are very insightful. If anyone has not read his book "Fooled by Randomness", it is a must read. But, I guess most would have read his book by now. Awesome and pragmatic views.

[@macclark4112]

Money disappears regularly in such volatile markets. Wealth never disappears,it is simply transferred to others.

[@letmesummarize1176]

Can you please elaborate that. What do you mean by wealth?

[@marijnstollenga1601]

I'm inspired to get some options now

[@danielracovitan9779]

you have to know what you're doing, he said

[@vimalb88]

"Someone else pays for their losses"

[@danielracovitan9779]

the taxpayers or the shareholders

[@19battlehill]

To see the obvious is easy and he did that -- he got lucky that he timed them right. That is random luck, and I think he would be the first to admit this.

[@w0ttheh3ll]

in his book "the black swan" he specifically recommends that people don't become traders. while that's a job where you could make millions in a single day, the chances of that happening are so very low. with a regular job, you can reliably earn a living.

[@royreyes8422]

beautiful ... just wolfed Psei 5100 and ES1 snp 2525 ... march 12, 2020 fri the greater bull run is on day 1 to fresh highs.. thanks bloomberg

[@nrpbrown]

I'm really happy he's seen Trading Places, he doesn't seem like much of a movies guy

[@paulerosier6948]

+ de vidéos en français, s'il vous plaît. Merci.

[@ariedtrades]

Selling seatbelt thing reminded me on Warren Buffett on selling insurance for nuclear bomb. When it happen we all die while it didn't happen he get to keep the money.

[@willdehne1]

I read his books, follow his speeches, agree with most his ideas. Implementing his ideas is not easy for me. I guess I am not as smart. All I have been able to do is diversify.

[@seanyboyclutch]

Wilfried Dehne buy out of the money put options...

[@adriand9526]

If you have no experience with options don't buy them.

[@EnsonPortela]

@Alexander Bayer Also, I do not know what is he approach to select how Out of the money should the option be!

[@danielracovitan9779]

@@seanyboyclutch it is not that simple; you have to carefully pick the put options writer, otherwise if they default you won't be able to call the options when they get into the money

[@danielracovitan9779]

@Alexander Bayer it is no more valid today; as of 2021 he stays away from long term sovereign bonds, from currencies and stocks; likes gold, put options, and very short term fixed-income securities

[@prasannanidumolu7508]

Tony Soprano is back!

[@kitzchim]

Prasanna Nidumolu better taste in suits though

[@DUDINCHI]

Horizontally challenged tony

[@ninetyninecent]

continental illinois and rtc was volcker, not greesnpan

[@luosongsu7456]

the way he talks made me think of the kid with no tooth on Strange Things

[@zelareka]

taleb is a very smart manbaby

[@-Bearito]

Don't mean to be rude, but big moves on the Euro/Dollar pair on Black Monday in 87? The Euro did not exist at the time ;-)

[@leonardovalencia8928]

EuroDollars is an interest rate instrument and it is not related to the Euro currency at all (despite the name). I would say it is one of the most popular (if not the most popular) futures contract offered in the USA.

[@-Bearito]

@@PaulRBerg Thx, I didn't know that. Indeed, one could swear it was designed to be confusing =/

[@Russel_at_whatever]

there was no EUR/USD trading at that time, because Euro didn't exist then. what are they talking about?!

[@leftmodernist5210]

He’s talking about the Eurodollar. Google it!

[@MISTERASMODEUS]

Well at least Greenspan did one thing right...

[@gordongordon98]

Broken Clock Theory

[@sourabhvora2164]

Rather share the exact opposite. Did you buy? No, i sold

[@hamptaylor]

Pretty sure that aphorism at the end is plagiarized from Friedman 😂

[@roc7880]

manic mondays are always black mondays.

[@lenguyenthanhhuy4149]

Thử 91,000,000,000 tỷ vận may từ sự bất định của thị trường và có thời hạn có điểm dừng 600 tỷ/ thánh

[@aza1479]

2020 march anyone

[@danielracovitan9779]

stop begging for attention

[@Joe-jc5ol]

I was shocked that he was saying something nice about Alan Greenspan and then he followed up with "it's the only good thing he did in his life" He really really hates him lol

[@danielracovitan9779]

he doesn't hate him; he despises him; it's a different thing

[@sourabhvora2164]

oh my god, still using his playbook to not share what he does. Short volatility.

[@Senecamarcus]

Erik my man u would be better at the Zoo with how u do new interviews

[@lukecashin]

Second.

[@ycnexu]

Love Taleb, and he said it himself that he talks this way on purpose, but I gotta say I can't comprehend his muttering and hiccups. He speaks a bit like a drunkard, actually :)

[@gomertube]

Yes, I do pity those who try following him without having read one of his books beforehand.

[@roayahelal4617]

72nd and first is not soho ~

[@kitzchim]

shut the fuck up no one gives a shit

[@sourabhvora2164]

yea yea. Swaps on Credit default Swaps. You actually know what make the most money. Hahaha. Cough cough.

[@milarovas4363]

To summarize, he got very lucky and made a lot of money betting on the stock market.

[@alfredthepatientxcvi]

To summarize, you are either a fool or a troll.

[@danielracovitan9779]

@@alfredthepatientxcvi :))))

[@artelc]

He is repulsive.