Never Run Out of Money in Retirement - Use This Free FIRE Calculator!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Please note: as part of his ongoing updates to the spreadsheet, Karsten now sets the supplemental cash flows to zero by default. This means that while our use of those fields in the video is still valid, you won't find them in the downloaded tool. As you'll see, they are very easy to add to reflect your own situation or to follow along with this video. Thanks!

[@anthonynapolitano7407]

Love all your content and listen/watch religiously. As I am recently FIRE'd, I am currently going through the detailed planning for creating my retirement paycheck. I plan to use this tool as a guide. I have two questions that I could use help with: 1. I always get confused as it relates to SS todays dollars vs. future dollars. If SSA.gov says at FRA you will have $3K/mo (15 yrs from now), is that what you insert into the SWR toolbox? I know in future dollars it will be > $3K, so I always get confused. 2. As it relates to SCR vs. SWR. I really appreciate what he's trying to achieve, but I'm not sure I am fully grasping the concept. If the tool says I can have 4% SWR (zero % failure), does that I mean I can take that 4%, but my spending will be higher bc I will have the other sources in the cash flow assist? I'm confused - sorry!!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Do you want to see more videos like these? If so, what would you find most useful? Let us know in the comments

[@MicahsJourney...]

Definitely would like to see more videos like this one, including the one you mentioned that dives more into the CAPE-based method. Thanks!

[@JB-tj9mm]

Yes! Please do an example for the SWR part 45 toolkit with solver. Thank you

[@timabrams9957]

Yes, this was helpful and interesting.

[@joelweinstein9301]

Absolutely yes, this was super useful to get some confidence using the inputs and outputs of the SWR toolkit

[@jfieser]

Great video! Please consider doing a video on Roth Conversion Ladders.

[@mike8560a]

This is great. Rather than people just talking about the safe withdrawal rate you show it in action on Karsten's sheet. Helpful indeed!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Michael!

[@careym8437]

Wow, Jason, I feel like I just took a free college class in under 30 mins! Very valuable info, thank you and thank you to Carsten too 😊

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Carey! So glad you found it useful. Please consider sharing it online so that others can benefit from this great tool!

[@playacabo6289]

This spreadsheet gave me the confidence to go ahead and retire early 2 years ago. I've now updated with social security estimates and my husband's pension and we are in excellent shape. Thanks for walking through the tool. So many people will benefit from it. 👍

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Jennifer! So glad you're also a happy user of the toolbox. If you like the video we'd be grateful if you'd share it online or with others who you think would find it useful 🙏

[@maxpayne7419]

Jason you did a masterful job of explaining this tool. This channel has helped me so much as I reach FI and early retirement. Thank you!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Max! We are so happy to learn our channel has been helpful to you. Best wishes on your journey!

[@DillyPutty]

I like the tool because you can fine tune it to your own situation as far as inflows and outflows. The tool does assume a constant real consumption target value which may or may not be an accurate model of your retirement spending. It also does not attempt to minimize taxes (which would require more info about your portfolio). One thing I like is that it does not give unwanted suggestions about course of action; it's up to you to determine how you want to invest and spend. I've found the most important table is the Safe Consumption Amounts on the Cash Flow Assist tab (2nd tab). This gives me a max spending target for my situation.

[@susanharkema2888]

We think you found your new calling! This was crisp, clear and so exciting. Thank you guys for creating a wonderful intro so we can tap Karsten’s tool. And THANK YOU Karsten for all you do and share.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks very much, Susan! So glad you liked the video

[@susanharkema2888]

@@TwoSidesOfFI - I just did my first round of scenarios using the calculator! THIS is exactly what we needed to go deeper than other calculators and get more output other than "You're good to retire!" Can't thank you enough for the easy-to-follow walkthrough.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

@@susanharkema2888 That's great to hear! You're very welcome

[@Coda1850]

Such an important topic, excited to watch this episode & the next.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Glad you liked it!

[@MagnumMacgiverPI]

This spreadsheet is awesome. I wanted to stress test my financial planners numbers and this spreadsheet really helped me gain some confidence to retire this year at 49. Thank you for introducing it and the detailed walk through!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Wonderful! Best wishes to you

[@KetchumAllCollectibles]

This stuff is gold. Thanks for these videos. Need to find time to dig into the sheets more, but very impressive.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thank you!

[@miatafunrun3078]

Awesome stuff. Thank You! and Thank You Karsten.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You’re welcome!

[@tdc3rd]

Great resource - thanks! And yes, another vid on how you'd use the CAPE-based tool would be very helpful.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks!

[@rayanderson3164]

Thank you. This is a very useful tool to have and model different rates.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You’re welcome! Glad you find it useful. We certainly do!

[@adampunch6766]

Nice one Jason - really useful to confirm that actually using the tool is way easier than digesting all of Karsten's excellent blog posts. I'd be really keen for you guys go deeper on CAPE - anything that you can cover on US vs Global CAPE and variances to the median/mean would be super!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks Adam! Thanks for the feedback

[@anguslaing6611]

Jason, you sounded like a pro! You could do voiceovers as a side hustle

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You’re very kind, thank you! -J 🙏

[@cayankeelord3730]

I only withdraw about 75% of my dividends and roll the remainder into more shares of select ETFs. I started with debt 30 years ago and now have a dividend income that exceeds my expenses. Built a portfolio of only under valued dividend paying stocks. Hint; keep cash on hand in your brokerage account to buy big when markets crash. i.e.: For the last "crash", MPC went from $90+ a share, down below $21 a share. With a divy yield of 14+%, I backed up the truck and hit it hard. Current price is about $150 a share. Of course the reflected yield is about 1.4%, but the divy is actually higher now. Be smart!

[@chuckb2676]

Great review of the SWR tool. Wish you had done this before I spent the time figuring it out. 😀 I love your channel. It is one of the most informative personal finance channels on the web. The conversations between you two are great as are those where you feature others. It shows such a varied perspective. I appreciate the efforts you put into this channel. As for other videos like this, maybe reviewing your experiences with other online models and your opinions on them.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Chuck! We really appreciate your support and the feedback.

[@mikedougherty1117]

Agree 100% Chuck!!

[@anilbangia]

I am a big fan of Jeske's work, like many other quant nerds! Thanks for bringing his tool to our attention, it realy is awesome!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You’re welcome, Anil!

[@isabelg8788]

Wow, this PROVES your decision to stop your blog has freed up time that resulted in your excellent performance in this video. Well done!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Isabel! Glad you liked it

[@alangrayson8145]

This was my 3rd time to watch this! Great job and thanks for taking the time to share a great tool.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thank you!

[@christinab9133]

This is so helpful! Thank you!!!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Glad to hear it, Christina! We’d be grateful if you’d share it with others

[@iaintoft7003]

Thank you for taking the time to put this together, the voice over was flawless! Side gig? 🙂

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks! 🙏

[@matthewbell9683]

Great video. I downloaded the spreadsheet last week but didn’t know where to start so I set it aside. This was a great primer that will help me get back to it! Thanks for the video.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Great! Thanks, Matthew

[@nybigtymer]

GREAT video. Thanks for breaking it down.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks!

[@colbyharder4733]

A+ video! Awesome job guys!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Colby!

[@toichiboy]

Thank you so much for walking through this!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You're welcome, Reid!

[@craigfoulkes]

Interesting how a small change in withdrawal rate has a large change in the failure rate. The change in life style for 2% failure rate and 5% rate would be tiny.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Yep! That’s the flip side of compounding.

[@danielsheppardtv]

I use this all the time and it’s nice to see someone break it down in detail. Nice job to you and Carsten.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Daniel!

[@davemiller704]

LOVE this video, my fav so far, real executable advice that I can apply to my own plan & portfolio. Jason, you are so so good at simplifying and explaining!! Ty!!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Dave! We’re so glad you liked it. Stay tuned for Part 2 where we will dig in more and share our own practices with the tool

[@marcoopdeweegh8284]

Thank you, great guidance and situation!

[@steveb2346]

Fantastic video. You do an excellent job explaining the tool, and the visuals are top notch. I’m very interested in a second video that dives deeper into CAPE and Glidepath, and further into how to use the tool after retirement (you made a comment to subtract a year…but what does that look like?). I might be making it harder than it is…. Thanks again. Great work. Excellent channel!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks!

[@autobotdiva9268]

must get the income level up! this is good info

[@timmcdermott4854]

REALLY great walkthrough. The sheet is intimidating at first, but your walkthrough helped us figure out the few key areas on which we needed to focus. Muito Obrigado!!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Tim! Very glad to hear you found it useful

[@georgeparadis538]

The tool specifically says do not include real estate in your portfolio value only financial assets So where do you plug-in cash flow from your real estate portfolio? Thank you I appreciate all the work you guys do

[@peezy-wheezy]

Great video. Thank you!! One thing I find confusing is at 9:03 where you say "where the portfolio is worth $3,000,000 at the beginning of retirement", however, the sheet says "Portfolio Today". What if I am planning on retiring in 2032? What value should I enter in the "Portfolio Today" field? Is that the value of my accumulation so far or is it my expected portfolio value at my projected retirement date? Also, on tab one, the field "Retirement Horizon" is a little confusing. Does that mean "Days until retirement + days after retirement until I die" or does it mean "just the years after I retire...until I kick the bucket"? FYI I am 9 years from retirement and I am really struggling with the retirement withdrawal strategy part.

[@joemyers]

portfolio today = today ... youadd to it in cash flow assists, I assume ... I have't tried this yet, as I am retired already, but will add my wife's future work income. horizon = just days after retirement ... how long do you want your portfolio to last

[@eileenfrancis9491]

Believe it or not Jason, I listened to this on audio podcast on my walk today. I chuckled to myself about listening to a very visual presentation. But I think it actually helped me to decide I can and should use the video and walk thru the SWR Toolbox. I think if I listened to the whole thing, it shows how well you did with it. Can't wait for part 2!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Jason here - That's great! I think you'll find the video useful. I appreciate the feedback very much

[@blazerjeremy8960]

Thank you. This is a very helpful video.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You’re welcome!

[@bettting2131]

I am sorry for this stupid question but I just want to ensure that I am understanding the definitions and terminology correctly - 1. In the sheet, I see the word initial (consumption or withdrawal), does this imply that it is always based on the initial portfolio value or as we progress through retirement, we can adjust the portfolio value to come up with the appropriate withdrawal rates? 2. Essentially what does the “initial” mean if this sheet can be used to calculate both initial and subsequent withdrawal rates. Thank you so much for taking the time to respond.

[@dtownbabe7028]

Great video, thanks for explaining the spreadsheet. Have to admit, I have opened it and closed it many times as I was too intimidated by the spreadsheet. Now I have my basic starting point that I can retire next April!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

So glad you liked it! Wow, you are in the home stretch! Best wishes to you

[@clydelo4231]

This is a great Video..Kudos! Although I'm based in the UK (with my portfolio exposed to passive index heavily US based), I'm using the same sheet with minor adjustments to inflation to build up my confidence about my finger in the air WR. One thing that is not clear is the "Portfolio Today" cell. Is it the portfolio current value or the "estimated" value at "Start Date" of withdrawal?

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

If you’re doing future modeling, the latter. For me, I update it each month along with decrementing the months remaining in the plan.

[@simmonds3930]

Oh man! So helpful...big thank you!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You're welcome!

[@russkoon2355]

Great review, and one I believe many will benefit from.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Russ

[@mertokutan1361]

Thank you so much! Great video. Can’t wait for the 2nd episode. And YES, a walkthrough on cape based tool would be very helpful and educational. I love big ern’s blog but sometimes I get lost due to lack of knowledge on my end on some concepts and find myself keep reading the same line over and over and over. So, this video was immensely helpful.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Mert! Really glad you liked it.

[@maryanntaylor2179]

Fantastic! Your presentation was very clear and very useful. Yes, I would like to hear more about CAPE ratio determined SWRs. It will help me during the next run-up in the stock market to not get too giddy.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Mary Ann! Glad you liked it. We appreciate the feedback

[@wallst4fun1]

This is phenomenal information. But honestly, the biggest threat to retirement is not the size of your portfolio, but the threat of hyperinflation. We have $33T in debt. Not unrealistic that we could see double digit inflation in the coming years. Using 2% inflation seems naive TBH

[@sbkpilot1]

very cool tool, I like the way it gives probabilities by SWR and also allows detailed entries of cashflow by month which most other tools don't allow. I love the analysis by CAPE which gives a very useful perspective given our current situation with valuations.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

We agree! Glad you find it useful

[@Stitchtyson]

Thanks for putting this together can't wait to see Part 2. Please do more videos like this! Has anyone else noticed when adjusting the projected returns on the (Parameters & Main Results page) it does not impact the SCR tables results significantly for the lower WR rates or Failure rates? Even when changing to say 20-30% For example I have 80% in stocks and 20% in Bonds: 10y U.S. Treasury. When I update the projected returns below for 10Y Bonds for the next 10Y and 10Y Bonds after that it has a very minor change in the SCR in the tables. Same holds true for stocks - I would expect that to have greater impact since 80% of funds are held there. Am I doing something wrong?

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

06:38

[@Stitchtyson]

@@TwoSidesOfFI Thank you! Exactly what I needed! You guys are great! Sorry for asking a question you had already answered.

[@Lmessimer1567]

Awesome and yes, please expand on CAPE. 😊

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks!

[@sebstream8440]

Watched this video again, understood a little bit more this time. Thank you for all the details in this video.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

.

[@jeske100]

This is awesome. Thanks for putting this together! And you're right: it may seem intimidating initially, but most users don't need all the geeky math. Just getting a good sense of the SWR/SCR and how much of a difference the supplemental cash flows make is a great start and shouldn't take much longer than than a few minutes. Getting retirement simulations right and retiring with more confidence, shouldn't that be worth 20-30 minutes of our time? Looking forward to part 2!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Karsten! That’s high praise coming from you. Thanks for all the work you share with the community

[@BryceThomassub]

Question: On Cash Flow Assist you input your portfolio value in today's dollars, but my start retirement date is 10 years out. How do I model additional savings toward my portfolio between today and my retirement start date? This should include additional yearly savings + growth of my portfolio during that time. Thanks!

[@roncarlson537]

I had the same question. Here's a quick hack for that: 1. project the dollar amount you'll have 10 years from now and set that as Portfolio Today, and 2. adjust your birth year back 10 years to set yourself as your retirement age.

[@MEYER99100]

Great video. I am not sure I understand what SCR means. If you fill all data and then run a second calculation doubling your Portfolio amount,. should the SCR go up? Meaning you can spend more without risking failure. When I do that the SCR goes down.

[@MEYER99100]

Never mind, figured it out

[@markadkins4776]

Excellent video! I have been using the SWR toolbox for a couple of years. This helps validate that I have been using it properly. The ability to put in future cashflows is powerful. Yes - please make more videos on this subject. You guys are doing an amazing job on the podcast! Kudos to Karsten for making this toolbox.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Mark! We truly appreciate your support and the feedback! Please share the video with anyone you think can benefit. We'd love for people to be more comfortable with this incredibly useful tool

[@DerStabby]

Thank you for making this sheet less intimating. Epic!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You're very welcome!

[@navymathboy]

Thanks for the legwork done here by to clarify Karsten's otherwise intimidating looking SWR tool. I appreciate the effort to cite specific references to Karsten's blog source and provide clear step-by-step explanations. Great informative introduction video.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Very welcome!

[@richardpierson242]

Since the 90s, CAPE ratio for S&P 500 has not been less than 20 very much. I don't see how using the withdraw rate at a less than 20 CAPE is relevant in the last 30 years.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

It’s not relevant presently, true. But it may be again in the future and so the tool is setup to handle it. It also is useful for modeling historical periods.

[@nelsonang]

awesome video Jason 😊 but the naughty part of me is wondering about the bloopers!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Nelson! Ah yes, there are always bloopers! At times in the past we've included a few outtakes after the episode credits but there aren't any for this one.

[@nelsonang]

@@TwoSidesOfFI looking forward to part 2 ☺

[@erniekeller1093]

I'm invested almost completely in dividend paying stocks and funds. Even if your portfolio isn't large enough to cover your entire income needs from dividends alone, the dividend strategy means you don't have to take 4% out of your portfolio each year. You might be able to reduce that to, say, 2% and that would give you a better shot of having market gains keep you from running out of resources prematurely.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Dividend stocks prioritize income over capital appreciation. Value is distributed as dividends, resulting in slower price growth compared to let’s say an S&P 500 fund, which captures both price appreciation and dividends. Typically, on the ex-dividend date, when dividends are paid, the share price of a stock decreases by an amount roughly equal to the dividend. This adjustment reflects the fact that shareholders are receiving a portion of the company's value in the form of dividends. There is no free lunch! The choice between the two depends on your investment goals, your tax situation and whether you prioritize income paid out on a regular schedule or seek a mix of income and capital appreciation.

[@JO091715]

What if no Spouse? Zero out the second b-day?

[@MitchelDSouza]

Going through the SWR for my own numbers while listening to your audio was so easy to navigate. Thanks for all the work put together Karsten and Jason! This is super helpful even for non-native excel users like me.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You're welcome, Mitchel! So glad it was helpful to you. Did you see Part 2? kzbin.info/www/bejne/qJLThKKirZhqnbs

[@MitchelDSouza]

@@TwoSidesOfFI Thats my next weekend plan :)

[@ReesesPieces81]

That's some serious naration skills. Time for a new sidegig?

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, you’re very kind

[@sixstringsdaddy2477]

I modeled having an external source of income from day 1. It seems the SCR is expressed by calculating the value of income into the withdrawal. So it tells me my withdrawal rate is 7.7% when in fact I can only sell 2.7% of the portfolio, the remaining 5% is brought in by the income stream. the cash flow assist tab confirms that I should only get 2.7% in column T. I would have preferred the SCR be expressed in the form of a % of the portfolio to withdraw every month, and some other column showing the total of my income + the withdrawal for total available (before taxes)

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Be sure to drop Karsten a comment in the main SWR Toolbox thread as he very often responds there!

[@dseagull3567]

It seems to me that column T is giving you what you can take from the portfolio and the SWR is based on that number in relation to total portfolio value. It is not a monthly total consumption number.

[@edwardtolentino7210]

Does this apply if I'm just simply withdrawing the dividends generated from my portfolio and not touching the capital at all?

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

earlyretirementnow.com/2020/10/14/dividends-only-swr-series-part-40/

[@mxk]

How do you account for taxes in the cash flow assist tab? The safe monthly portfolio withdrawals must be adjusted for capital gains tax to make sense, right? This is because if I look at my yearly expenses, and want to understand how these would be covered by portfolio withdrawals,. then I must multiply these withdrawals by a factor that represents whatever would be withheld for capital gains by my broker. I tried fiddling with the column S (scaling) with values above 1, but this then *reduces* the SCR, which is not what I want either (I want the SCR to reflect what I *actually* need to spend, incl. taxes) Thanks!

[@jenellebarkley]

Helpful video, though I think the spreadsheet has broken... No matter the value entered in "portfolio today", the results do not change on the main results tab.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

I've just made a fresh copy of the tool and the good news is that it's working as expected. If you're looking at the SWR percentages (or failure rates) on the Main Results tab, that is correct. Those are independent of starting amount. What *will* change if you alter the Portfolio Today value are the Safe Consumption Amounts (i.e. dollars) starting in Col V of the Cash Flow Assist tab. For example, change the Portfolio Today from the default of $3MM to $1MM, and the 0% failure rate for all time (cell V15) change from around $103K to $34k. If you want to see the failure rates on Main Results change, swap the portfolio from 80% S&P500 / 20% 10-year T-bills to 20/80. That will cause the SWR for 0% failure rate considering all time (cell D9) to drop from 3.25% to 2.5%. Changing other orange-shaded input fields in Col B will also result in changes to Main Results tables. In both examples here many other values change too but I'm just giving a single example for each.

[@MicahsJourney...]

GREAT review. I have never had the willpower to figure out Karsten's spreadsheet, although knew I'd do so at some point. You have helped immensely and I realize it's not as complex as I had expected. Yes, please do more videos on this if you can, including the deeper CAPE-based analysis. Lastly, all my bond investments are in Total Bond Market Index, so it's a bit difficult and probably inaccurate to try to fit that within the parameters of 10- and 30-year US Treasuries like his spreadsheet requires. Any advice on how to somehow factor in or approximate the corporate and non-US Treasury portion of a Total Bond Market Index fund when using this spreadsheet? (By the way, this is my favorite video thus far on your site . . . very relevant)

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Casey! So glad you found it useful. My bonds are a mix of treasuries funds and total bond as well. In any case, the return rates don't have a huge impact on the model as I mentioned, so don't sweat it. Just pick a blended rate for the whole thing.

[@tedhuettl]

Jason I'm still confused a bit...when you say "Just pick a blended rate for the whole thing." Are you saying that if we are not sure to put 15% for the 10y and 15% for the 30y (assuming we have 30% in bonds)? @@TwoSidesOfFI

[@slrobertson]

Thank you for the excellent walkthrough and explanation of Karsten’s indispensable toolbox. I wonder if you have advice on modeling supplemental cash flows like an anticipated windfall - an inherited IRA with a 10-year RMD schedule, for example?

[@celloplayermom]

Hi Scott, I didn't see any responses to your question so I thought I would respond. What you are asking about modeling an inherited IRA and the 10-year RMD schedule is fairly easy and simple to do if I understand the spreadsheet well enough. My wife and I have an inherited IRA from which we are taking a flat amount/month for the next 8.5 years (that is the current situation and planning assumption, though the amounts could change in the future based on future changes in the tax code). I put that amount in the Cash Flow Assist tab in column J or K under Cash Flows Not Adjusted for Inflation. You could just put your monthly withdrawal amount in cells in column J or K for each of the first 120 months or whatever period of time you have left in the 10-year period or defer it by a few years if you expect to inherit it some time in the future. A future inheritance is tricky because generally you have only a vague sense of when you are going to inherit the money and the date could swing pretty significantly based on the person's health. I hope that helps. John

[@pvrspvrs4781]

Good time of day. I didn't catch - in the tab of the CARE-based Rule, do all the values of SWR (capital preservation) after the first retirement period require adjustments for inflation or not? Thanks

[@jessiquilla1]

Thanks Jason for such a great tutorial on the SWR tool! My husband and I are hoping to reach FI in a couple of years and then go the geo abitrage route to achieve early retirement. I've really been enjoying your and Eric's podcast/YT and wouldn't have found out about Karsten's great tool without you guys. And +1 to a deep dive into more of the SWR tool, never hurts to get more technical. Using this tool will definitely give us more confidence that we can ride the long-term waves of the wonderful world of FIRE. Excited to discover more of your podcasts/YT videos, we appreciate you!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Jason here - you're welcome, Jessica! So glad to learn you found it useful. We appreciate your support of the show! Best wishes to you and your husband on your own journey! Keep us posted

[@jessiquilla1]

@@TwoSidesOfFI Thanks Jason, will do! Just checked out your most recent show on portfolio progress and left you a like and comment :)

[@LegacyStacker]

Hi Jason! You nailed it in your intro, withdrawing 4% in a bear market, and then not being able to make it up during the following bull market. This is why I am focusing on dividend stocks now, instead of index fund investing. I'm also still trying to reach my precious metals 10% of wealth goal, during my current accumulation phase! I love the videos you and Eric produce on Two Sides of FI! 😎

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks! We appreciate your support

[@alonsaggie]

Thank you so much for putting this together. I have a quick question: let’s say I retire today and my safe withdraw rate is 3%. What should I do in year 2? Should I adjust the withdrawal rate to inflation? And if so, how exactly should I do this? Do I trust the official inflation rate published FTX the fed or use something like Trueflation?

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

You're welcome! I talk about how I use this tool on an ongoing basis at 23:08.

[@subman656]

Guys, I want to express my thanks for taking the time to put together this run through simplifying the use of the tool. I was able to enter my information easily. The explanations were clear and very helpful. As others have mentioned it initially did seem intimidating, but after this it became clear how to get started with the basics. Excellent work that was very much appreciated!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Great! Glad to hear it, Russ. Best wishes to you

[@jeffreyhess7929]

How do taxes play into this? If I have a 1,000,000 portfolio but 500,000 if that are taxable gains how does that impact these calcs or what if my entire portfolio is in a 401k where all distributions are taxable?

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Taxes are so individual that you can't really include them in a modeler like this. In essence, Karsten is modeling how much you can withdraw from your portfolio, pre-tax. Just like the tool has no view on how you spend those dollars, paying taxes is just another expense you need to plan for. Given the 0% capital gains limits, most in the FIRE community are paying little in income taxes unless doing larger Roth conversions is a big part of their strategy, or they have a very fatFIRE position. In essence, you just need to plan for paying taxes as part of your budget just like any other expense.

[@berniekeene868]

Thank you for this very helpful video. I have a question about the Final Value Target (% of initial) field. I am inputting the whole number of 100, meaning that I want my final dollar amount of investments to equal what I have now. I get a certain SWR. When I change this to 50 or 75 or to any number, the SWR information does not change. Does anyone know why this is? Thank you.

[@lascanio]

Thanks for this video, I'll definitely need to watch it again once I download the template and maybe a couple of times more to digest the how to... but in watching the first time made me ask the question on how to project for a portfolio focused on generating cash flow instead of selling positions. In my case I have real estate and a dividend portfolio, both positions I am building intentionally to generate cash flow to avoid the need to sell principal positions; in that case how would you recommend to use this template? Does this SWR apply the same way in this case? Both my dividend and real estate portfolio I'm targeting to generate close to 4% and in both cases I have dividend growth and rental adjustments every year to account for inflation, of course in a case of a dividend cut I may need to rebalance or sell some positions, as well as in the case of a rental being cancelled or finished abruptly, both worst case scenarios for which I plan to have a safety fund. Just wondering. Thanks!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

If you can fully fund your lifestyle in perpetuity then you never need to draw down and the concept of a safe withdrawal rate doesn't really apply. If you need to count on income beyond that for your lifestyle, you'll need to model the delta being withdrawn from your portfolio.

[@lascanio]

@@TwoSidesOfFI Got it, thanks!

[@MrYogagaga]

Hey Guys, First like everyone else, thank you for breaking this all down so clearly, and thank you to Karsten for sharing your tool with the community. I do have one question (apologies if already addressed)... On the Cash Flow Assist Page, Karsten has carried the distribution to age 115. Though healthy, I'm guessing that I'll kick the bucket long before that ripe age. Wondering the reason that this was chosen and is there any reason that I should not adjust to a likely Life Expectancy, using one of the calculators out there, which it seems would change my SCR. Appreciate the feedback!

[@clayelliss1762]

I think possibly you should ignore that, if you change the retirement horizon months it changes the probabilities, therefore it seems the spreadsheet is only to collecti additional cashflow information and it assume that 60 years is the maximum additional cashflow information he expects anyone would require. For on how the months affect the safe withdrawl rate probabilities.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Clay is correct. Just ensure cell B36 in the Parameters and Main Results sheet reflects the duration of your retirement timeline in months.

[@susanharkema2888]

I have run into an issue with the toolbox and wondered if/how you handled this, Jason. Our portfolio is so diverse that I'm told by our advisor that to force-fit the types of holdings into the few listed in the toolbox would be a disservice. There are 8 items listed for portfolio holdings but I have in just one account - US Mid, Small, Micro Stocks, US Value Stocks, Total US Stock Market, VTSAX, S&P 500 Large US Stocks, Developed International Stock, Long Term US Treasury Bonds, Emerging International Stocks, Cash, International Bonds, Aggregate US Bonds. Any advice?? Thanks so much!

[@wampy31]

I don't understand why the SWR and SCR results change if I change my portfolio value. Since I'm not inputting an annual withdrawal amount, and it's just calculating SWR and SCR based on a timeframe going to zero, why would those change? If I increase the portfolio value, the SWR and SCR decrease.

[@GilreathDental]

Great video and great spreadsheet. I'm am very comfortable with all of the main two tabs except for the area dealing with the SP500 performance. In that column, going from 0% down to 50.81%, I don't know what that means and how to use the columns to the right... drawdown 0-5%, 5-10% etc. Can you explain this in more detail? Thanks. Love the work guys and Karsten too!

[@whitney2870]

Unfortunately it looks like the sheet has been updated to remove future returns.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

I dug through his recent blog comments to get info on this. Here's what Karsten said: 'The “projected returns” are merely filling in missing data at the end of the 1960s and 1970s cohorts with not enough history for simulating very long horizons. They will not be used to simulate your immediate retirement returns. So, for the most part, the fail-safe WRs are not impacted much by changing those values. [I mentioned this in the video as well] In response to #3, I’ve decided to remove the “Project Future Real Returns” from the parameter section, because that’s likely going to confuse readers. I moved that section to the bottom and put a note: “Do Not Change” ' - Jason

[@dseagull3567]

I'm having an issue with CAPE-based results in that the withdrawal figure based on current CAPE is 67% higher than the number presented on cash-flow sheet. I have trouble believing this result, or I don't have a good understanding on what the numbers are telling me. Comments?

[@Bleys0072]

When changing the expense ratio, be sure to put in a % after your number. Otherwise your results will be WAAAAAAAY off. Try it out to see :D

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks for the tip, Bleys

[@maggmaw]

Hello! Thank you, thank you for putting this video together! It is so insanely helpful as a nervous-recently-FIRE'd person. I would absolutely love to see more videos using this tool; perhaps some case studies✋🏼😬!I also would love to learn more about the CAPE-based Rule tab. I just discovered your podcast and found my way to KZbin. Keep up the great content and looking forward to more nerdy videos!!

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks, Mabel, and congrats on your recent FIRE status! If you haven't seen Part 3 of this series yet, it covers the CAPE tab: kzbin.info/www/bejne/oYHGaaGdaNiMeJI But don't miss Part 2 either which is a discussion we had on how we use this tool for our own finances : kzbin.info/www/bejne/qJLThKKirZhqnbs

[@subman656]

I know this isn't a trouble shooting forum, but I did lose the Failure Rate of Different Consumption graphic on the Main Results tab, how about others?

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Sorry you’re having trouble. We haven’t had any other reports of this happening. We’d recommend copying a new version of the tool to Google Drive

[@gregstockslager663]

I had the same problem when I downloaded the file to my computer. The graph worked when working on a copy on Google Docs.

[@amyb.894]

Have you tried the New Retirement software? If so, how do you think the results compare to this spreadsheet?

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Jason here - I have tried it, yes. It's a really interesting tool that has continued to evolve nicely since its release. In my view they're just going after related but different things. NR is a fuller personal financial planning environment. But it doesn't attempt to deliver the same things that the Toolbox does. We may do a video about NR at some point

[@ingridoomen867]

my apology... as I may be the one non numbers spread sheet person here....can i use this tool if I don't have a spouse can I just delete that row...any advice on how should I accommodate this ? Thank you so much for your show....your show is much appreciated and helpful thank you

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Hi Ingrid, are you talking about columns E-N in the Cash Flow Assist tab? Those columns, and this sheet as a whole are optional. You can enter data in one or more columns as you see fit. You can also put the same date in cells G6 and G7.

[@johnkelley1426]

I want to have a free Monte Carlo simulator for retirement.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Check out www.honestmath.com/ - neither of us have tried it yet but seeing some positive feedback on social media. Let us know what you think!

[@DevinSmith1486]

I dont think the plunge protection team will let the markets go too low for too long like in the great depression. America would be a 3rd world country at that point with retirees living like paupers

[@PeterMuellerATS]

Very helpful. Thank you for doing this.

[@TwoSidesOfFI]

Thanks