Trump 2.0: Gain or Loss for India? | UPSC | NEXT IAS | Beyond Classroom

[@piyushpatel9815]

Any discussion about IR and that too with respect to USA is incomplete without ayaz khan sir

[@amritanshusingh4504]

Please make a second part of this video with alok ranjan sir ..vibhas sir especially.. their opinions are so much enlightening

[@mangeshkumar1901]

Alok ranjan sir 😂

[@sanatkumarphukan5481]

Great panel. But Please make Vibhas Jha Sir permanent member of the Series. Please

[@udayveersingh8057]

Reddy bhai be like Ivanka trump is back ... Helpful session

[@Uzair_25_]

😂😂

[@SunnySingh-yt6gd]

Thank you sir ❤

[@RittikkumarMahato]

Without piyush chaubey sir, this discussion will not provide the holistic view about Trump and particularly USA

[@aniketkumarf4114]

Sir, Hindi would be more appropriate like MahaKumbh Mela discussion. It will also help you to connect with more people and the same goes to Currrnt Affairs video because there is a lack of reliable content on this platform. Thank you.

[@sudeepsingh4058]

Great panel, but why did u not invite Vibhas sir

[@amritanshusingh4504]

Agreed

[@younisali4267]

Sir can you please come up with topic like Space sector in India . A brief history about space sector. ISRO. Etc Thank you .

[@nextias]

That's a great suggestion! The space sector in India and ISRO's achievements deserve more attention. We will definitely consider it for future episodes!

[@shivammukherjee7660]

The world politics is now , like during any other war, is torn between two forces. The "Innovative forces" and the "Preserver Forces". Innovative forces want change. Greater diversification of power and a more decentralised world order. WW1 is a good example, where Germany wanted a greater piece of the global pie and therefore wanted to assert its dominance with France and Great Britain. Thus, by aligning this concept in today's context we can say that, China and Russia are part of the innovation force(with India supporting the two behind the scenes). Preserver forces, on the other hand, prefer status quo. USA is and has always been part of the preserver force. We now have an American president who is the flag bearer of the preserver force. When he says, "MAGA", he means that he wishes an America which resembles the 1950s. Therefore, the world is calling Trump 2.0 the "Great Disruptor". This approach to "Preservation" has a bearing on both internal and external politics of America. To cut a long story short, Donald Trump and the "Tea Party" has found room to the "Right of Newt Gingrich", which is not good news for American citizens. Ronald Reagan reduced education funding, space funding and behind the veil of promising greater economic prosperity, ended up sky rocketing inflation. I do not see a scenario where these things will not be amplified under Mr Trump. We could see a mass movement from the LGBTQIA+ community, which may have ripple effects globally like the "Cultural Revolution" of the late 1960s. But that is just the internal policy. India need not worry about that much. However, the foreign policy will also work on forces of preservation. Most points have been covered by the board, of course, but one thing I would like to point out is the impact on Cold War 2.0 Think about it, wasn't Mr Trump not going "Stop all wars" as soon as he got elected? The Russia-Ukraine war has not stopped. The Europeans are arming themselves and Ukraine is trying to garner support from the EU to ensure the war goes on. We have Sweden arming itself. We have a massive resource competition going on in the Arctic( this was since the Biden administration and Mr trump is only trying to carry it forward against the Vostok project of Russia and China in the Arctic) which the Americans are currently loosing. We have a resource competition in Africa which the Americans are loosing. Israelis are in no mood of letting Gaza off the hook so we may see a revival of the Israel - Gaza war. In this context, I do not see how the Americans will exit out of geopolitical conflicts without chaos and prolonged conflict .They will loose a lot of clout in 4 years globally if they do. Similar promise of global peace was made in 2016 but under Mr Trump, the Americans bombed Syria, assassinated Qassem Soleimani, ignored the Doklam Standoff, Glawan Valley standoff(where 100s died), sanctioned Venezuela, Mexico and most importantly, ARMED JAPAN(JAPANESE PAY 75% OF THE COST OF AMERICAN MILITARY IN THE JAPANESE COAST AND ISLANDS. SINCE 2010s, THE AMERICANS AND JAPANESE HAVE BEEN ARMING ICCHAVAKU ISLAND OF OKINAWA TO ENSURE A "WALL OF DEFENCE" AGAINST CHINA. MR TRUMP ALSO ALWAYS PUSHES THE JAPANESE INTO ARMING ITSELF AND AMEND ITS CONSTITUTION WHICH GUARANTEES PACIFISM FROM THE JAPANESE. WITH SOUTH KOREA UNDER CRISIS-THE CURRENT REGIME CHANGE IS ORCHESTRATED BY THE RUSSIANS; THE AMERICANS MAY FINALLY SUCCEED). Under his presidency, the seed of the African civil was also laid(Somalian civil war was a result of investments made in 2017). So, Trump 1.0 was in no way a peaceful period. I don"t see any historic evidence of how Trump 2.0 will be peaceful. Issues in Europe, Africa and south china sea may have spill over effects hurting global business and peace. IMPACT ON INDIA Lets not forget, the Americans under Mr trump took us out of GSP, imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium, took us to WTO and did not help us in vaccine development. So, sure, negotiations are in order and it will be interesting to see what happens considering that we are more inclined towards the business headed our way from China, Russia and SEA. Scholars are also claiming that post exit of CIA from Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina will be restored as PM. However, things does not seem so simple. Assuming that CIA does exit out of Bangladesh, the ISI and MSS can easily fill the vacuum. The priority for our adversaries in the region is the "New Moore Islands" which the Mizoram CM called "Zogam". So we have a long intelligence battle to play here. Instant peace may not be possible. Bangladesh Election Commission is also not inclined to allow the "Awami League" to contest elections. So, binary approach to Mr Trump may not be feasible. So. All in all, Trump 2.0 will shape out within the next 6 months. It is a wait and watch situation as the panel pointed out. In my opinion, which I am sure does not matter, I think in order to make the most of the opportunity, we must: A.immediately implement LPG2.0 so that India becomes investible again(Under the new AI policy, India is not part of the countries which are exempt from the 32000 CPUS threshold). Thus, becoming investible like China, Vietnam, Philippines and Thailand should be the priority of budget 2025. B. Ensure we resolve the Bangladesh crisis and secure the north east region and C. Resolve any and all remaining issues with China. If you took the time to read it, congratulations! You too are now a victim of my nervousness(Prelims is less than 120 days away). Good luck and best wishes.