Nintendo Switch Online is Going to CRASH N64 Game Prices

[@TheRatyzuma]

I would argue that both the NES mini and the SNES mini were a lot more viable options for playing retro games than the N64 online subscription will be. As both those mini consoles were available for anyone to buy for $60, whereas this Nintendo online membership is only available to people who already have a Nintendo Switch, and are paying for the online membership and on top of that are willing to pay extra for these games. This will definitively have an impact on the market, but I doubt it will be as large of a drop as with the mini consoles.

[@thelanecampbell]

More people own switches than bought the mini consoles. I skipped the mini consoles. I’m likely to play with the switch and the new wireless retro controllers.

[@chingersgolucky7512]

Good. I hope all retro game prices crash. I've been trying to re-purchase some of them I traded off to Gameflop years ago. I find that several I want cost more now than new and they are common games.

[@salad8543]

I literally screamed yes YESSS!!!!! I hope complete in box games go down to so I can keep my games safer. Though I also have to agree with another comment on why they think it’ll only drop a certain amount due to online.

[@Umbrella2]

Paper Mario on N64 is stupid expensive, I bought a cartridge and reproduction box and it came to about £25-30 I refuse to pay ridiculous prices.

[@ES-qm5hr]

Reissuing and rereleasing games only makes the price of vintage games increase because it raises awareness of these games. The people who want to buy real vintage games, has a very small overlap with those who just want to emulate, so it shouldn't reduce the cost of games.

[@GetTheGreg]

It's interesting because generally, through what I see, that's not how it actually plays out. Even recently with Mario 3D All-Stars, Mario Sunshine got hit hard (not sure on galaxy and galaxy 2). I fully expect we will see Harmony of dissonance and Aria see a hit with the new Castlevania collection coming out, too. We will see what happens, though! I do fully understand what you're saying.

[@mjcook3922]

The price for Zelda Skyword Sword for the Wii crashed after the release of the Switch remaster.

[@ES-qm5hr]

@@GetTheGreg Mario Sunshine did not crash if you take into account the price bubble that was created around COVID. When you look at the historical prices, and the price the game would have been if it were not for people getting stimulus checks, and being stuck at home in front of eBay for months, you'll see that they aren't behind the predicted prices. The drop in price was not due to the rerelease of those games, as much it was a correction once the surge in new buyers who dove into game collecting trailed off. Also, games like Mario Sunshine and Galaxy are not particular old games. N64 games are still effectively from the CRT era where people who are into an authentic experience can only get it through sitting in front of an old TV with an old console. GameCube, Wii, etc gaming is squarely in a place where modern hardware doesn't detract from the experience. Game collecting is not a particularly unique hobby. If you look things like vintage records, or guitars, which get reissued constantly, the reissues rarely have a negative effect on the originals. In the long run they tend to bring more people into the hobby because it makes it accessible, and in the long-term increase prices. You can't judge an impact with short term assessments based on a monthly, or even yearly trend. So, even a short term decrease in price correlating with a rerelease isn't very meaningful.

[@MadSociety-uy6zg]

@@ES-qm5hr really that makes no since lol 🤣

[@MadSociety-uy6zg]

@@ES-qm5hr gamecube games ya aren't that old but because how popular a lot of gamecube games are they usually are expensive on eBay a game doesn't have to be old to be expensive so ya Sunshine went down cause of 3d all stars

[@shiftmove371]

Greg, love the videos but I think you’re wrong on this one. NES to NES mini is a physical to physical console comparison. n64 to Nintendo switch online is a physical to online comparison. I think your prediction would be accurate if we were talking about a n64 mini instead of a subscription only access on a completely different console. When the NES mini came out it was only $79 with 30 games, so it made more financial sense for someone wanting to play a few specific games to just buy a NES mini purely based upon value. I just don’t think that value is there for a “casual gamer” with the Switch unless you already have one AND are willing to pay more money EVERY MONTH. For the average consumer making this decision, I think the price point of buying a switch and then a subscription on top of that just to play a few old n64 games is too high. The added subscription alone kills it for me because I see more value in owning something outright than just paying every month to essentially lease it. I also think there are a lot of other factors at play that you don’t mention in regards to a crash in 1 year time. We’re seeing more and more video game collectors and investors entering the retro video game market that adds a lot more stability than what was present in the 2017 market. You’re absolutely right about gaming on original hardware becoming more and more difficult every year, but as long as we have collectors and investors entering these markets, the prices will be fairly stable. So until something major happens to collecting, which is still propping up the market, I don’t think a major crash will happen.

[@GetTheGreg]

I appreciate you sharing your view on it all. I will be checking back in on this prediction in 6 months/1 year, so we will be able to track how my prediction plays out. I'll be ready to potentially eat my words haha! When it comes to the cartridge market, I place a lot of emphasis on "player demand". I agree fully that we have more collectors/speculators/etc, so there is for sure a chance that the added demand of these people outweighs any drop in player demand. We'll see!

[@shiftmove371]

@@GetTheGreg While I got you on the line... i'd like to see some more collecting guides like the Pokemon Red/Blue one but for other popular games when you get a chance

[@GetTheGreg]

Absolutely, man! I have a "quick hitter" type of video planned for NES games sometime soon!

[@AlonzoTompkins]

Good. I hope it does. These games shouldn’t be this expensive.

[@PaperBanjo64]

Yeah it's pathetic Paper Mario is over $80!

[@NanomachineExE]

I am unsure this will have as much of an impact. Hardware release means store visibility from casual consumers. Whereas, a digital release may not have as much visibility.

[@bruhbruh-bn8jx]

The snes classic was something that appealed to collectors, casual gamers and people who were just nostalgic. The prices dropped because it made the snes library so much more affordable/easy to play AND got more casual consumers to get rid of their own snes because "what's the point when this Lil box does it better" This is limited to people who own the nintendo switch AND it's a subscription service. You're not gonna get people dumping their games into the market for this and it's not gonna hit nearly as a large a demographic and that's too important to leave out when considering price drops on older games.

[@GetTheGreg]

That's a great point that could definitely lessen the overall impact when compared to the NES/SNES mini. Also, this wouldn't necessarily require people to dump their game in order for prices to plummet. A loss of demand would achieve the same outcome as an increase of supply.

[@bruhbruh-bn8jx]

@@GetTheGreg I agree with the second part fully, I don't think a uptick in games hitting the market would have been what caused the prices to rise by itself but if you have a decrease in demand and on top of that an increase in copies hitting the market it probably helped it maintain a lower price longer. And if you sold a snes you probably wouldn't be as willing to buy a snes and replay the other games on the system. Either way watching this video made me want to get a snes mini now lol

[@GetTheGreg]

@@bruhbruh-bn8jx hahah there's something we can both agree on. In researching for this, I got hit by a huge wave of nostalgia for the games!

[@shaqirseferi3463]

Basically - in 1 years time, N64 cart prices will be the same as September 2017. Woo, can't wait to stock up!

[@GetTheGreg]

Haha back to "normal", but now it's a "crash"😅

[@quezcatol]

Good theory but could it also lead to kids/teenagers or even young adults who didnt experience the n64 wanna collect for it now?

[@GetTheGreg]

Absolutely the potential for that exists, but it's not how I personally see it playing out based on my own experiences/perceptions.

[@robertstemper7691]

You‘re absolutely wrong. Just have a look at Super Metroid, which was one of the SNES Switch online Lauch Games. It’s still expensive as hell.

[@GetTheGreg]

Weeeeeeee willlllll seeeeeeee👀 if I happen to be wrong, I'll gladly make a video to announce it!

[@ARDIZsq]

So this won't really affect the prices of less common games, correct? I've been wanting to buy a copy of Evangelion 64 for my collection, even just a loose cart for now, but I can't afford the $50 price tag ($75 for complete). I'm wondering if prices for this game will drop, or if it'll stay relatively the same since it's a more niche game. EDIT: The complete price is actually around $100-150, not $75.

[@GetTheGreg]

Titles like that have a far better likelihood of barely being affected by the broader N64 market movements.

[@PoiTechGbo]

I don’t think the N64 online service is or can be compared to the snes and nes classics at all. The casual crowd will still keep buying the games on this list. A large portion of the casual crowd, don’t own a switch. So In order to get the same experience from just buying a 64, you’d need to spend $300 on the console, $200 on 4 wireless 64 controllers, and $30 for the online service. So call it $600+ retail just to get started. You also need an internet connection(which surprisingly a lot of people don’t have which is something else that helps casuals buy retro consoles.). I understand why you omitted the post 2020 sales but we’re in a post 2020 market, 90% of the games are still holding at a significant margin increase on both the classic systems, and nes snes online service. I think the N64 expansion pack will eliminate some of the demand, but it doesn’t create additional supply, and there will still be people that just want the physical item. Even the snes and nes classics were a physical item. I’m excited it’s coming, I don’t think it will affect too much though, all the games are fairly inexpensive already. Good video as always though my dude.

[@GetTheGreg]

Great to hear your thoughts on this. You're "in the thick of it" on a daily basis so you definitely have some noteworthy anecdotes haha. I did consider how much it all costs for a brand new person to get going, but I think any "purely new" person won't be buying a switch for the N64 expansion primarily. Rather, it will satiate their retro desire later on, if they ever even have it. For everyone else who already owns the Switch, their need to ever buy a retro set-up is greatly lessened. The internet connection thing is interesting for you to say haha. I do just associate everyone as having internet if they own something like a Switch haha. And yes, the games are holding on the mini classics now, but I would argue in the future then, for N64 games to spark again after the downturn, they will require some form of catalyst as well.

[@PoiTechGbo]

@@GetTheGreg I can’t tell you how many times I have someone put an Xbox One Game back because of the “internet required” on it. It blows my mind, but there’s some thick country about 20 miles away from the shop so it does make sense. Happens even more so with 360. (I actually just decided to stop selling Plants Vs Zombies: Garden Warfare at the shop because it requires Xbox live and it’s 360 so most parents have them for kids under 10 and they don’t have internet set up on their consoles. I’ve had that conversation SO many times that I’m just done putting it on the sales floor all together). As a retailer, none of these classics or the online services have affected our pricing in the slightest, nor do they make games not sell. It may affect some of eBay audience, and it will have some affect, because you’re not wrong at all there will be a percentage of consumers that just use that instead, but I think the overall affect on the market will be negligible. There’s always some type of solution that lets people not buy retro games, but they always keep selling. I’m personally about to sell off all my loose 64 games, because someone traded an Everdrive into the shop and I’ve been messing around with it and it works wayyyyyy better than I expected, so I bought it and that’s good enough for me. These titles are just all inexpensive first party titles, with an average of $25-80 per title depending the type of retailer you are. I see some shops selling Mario 64 loose for $75 when we sell it for $40 I think, but we do price fluidly with FMV so if things go too high and then drop, we’re willing to go lower again. A lot of retailers once they set a price high and it sells they will never go back down, which leaves them with piles of overpriced inventory, our stuff is usually priced to move. What I AM super excited for though, is Sin and Punishment on my switch! These N64 controllers are going to sell for obnoxious amounts of money on eBay this holiday season as well. People will be selling them for $90-120 all day, already seen it with the nes and the snes ones. I think the game that’s coming that has the most to lose value wise will be Paper Mario when it launches. I’m having a hard time finding a closing statement in this rant so I’ll just end it with, “you’re breathtaking.”

[@GetTheGreg]

@@PoiTechGbo The opinions are laid out, now! I'll be seeing you 6 months from now and 1 year from now to see if the averages have moved in any meaningful way haha!😎 Also, your story about Plants vs Zombies is hilarious. I don't blame you one bit for simply being done with it all aha. Also, also, I'm most curious to see when and how they release the Mario Party games. They couldn't right away due to the Mario Party game already coming out this holiday season, but man will those be awesome if they also get full online support for Switch! I was just playing some MP1 this weekend - can't wait to wreck people online haha

[@agarza915]

Do you expect cart prices for SNES and NES to drop post pandemic?

[@GetTheGreg]

I do, yes. But at a much more gradual, natural decline.

[@GoobNoob]

They are already still low.

[@Snivy102]

One day I'll get Dracula X...

[@superbn0va]

CIB games will not decrease in price but increase instead?. I think cartridges were always doomed to loose value for obvious reasons

[@danrichards9516]

Those of us who were collecting when the Wii Virtual Store first did this are looking down our noses at this video.

[@GetTheGreg]

Can you share any kind of anecdotes from back in 2006-07 when it was introduced for the first time? I was, admittedly, too young and not even "collecting" yet at that point haha.

[@danrichards9516]

@@GetTheGreg we saw an immediate drop in a few games most notably Earthbound. But it was back to its old price inside a year or so. You are right to a degree on the more common titles, but even those have such a high demand and so many people are purists it takes little time… What hurts the prices of loose player carts more than anything in my opinion is bootlegs that look good enough to fool your friend, your dad, your local pawnbroker… that not only offers an acceptable alternative to many who want to be purists but don’t have the funds, and it lowers the price inherently by scaring money away. Game Boy Pokémon carts woulda been this price ten years ago if there wasn’t a robust East Asian knock off ‘industry’. And despite this, 90% of prospective buyers can be fooled with a number imprinted on the label. Also, I’m of the opinion Nintendo is sandbagging the N64 mini. They’ve been quick to adapt to the collecting community compared to other manufacturers. That’s why they release their minis like they do. Piecemeal, get inflated sales figures from resellers, give them a year or so to play their game so they don’t get burnt and not return for the next console, then open the floodgates. Makes them so much more in those. And they recognize the different markets for a physical system and a cloud full of games… Honestly, I watch you for your insight in the sealed games market. You are pretty on the ball there. But this was a miss in my estimation. Obviously no offense intended.

[@Silentevil7]

I really doubt it now especially with their expensive online subscription

[@SpikeVallen]

I’m pretty sure the cartridge prices will probably not drop much considering that they’ll MOST LIKELY use the most recent version of the Roms. I myself would want to play the OoT ver1.0 since it’s the one I know the most

[@jedirun]

Nintendo has to get that N64 emulation on point first because it's currently terrible

[@GetTheGreg]

I've heard! Incredibly disappointing that they couldn't get it right in 2021 haha

[@pixelsrnautded9286]

Not really prices are only going to go up from here not down.

[@Sethallica25]

By this logic, why are games like Demon's Crest or Kirby's Dreamland 3 (both on Nintendo Switch Online) $100+ games? The highest they've ever been.

[@GetTheGreg]

Well that alone is thanks to covid collecting culture, but games like that are far more propped by collector demand, and have been for a *long* time. You'd have to look back at the first or second time they were ever ported to a VC to see the same catalyst effects. Which no, this isn't the first time these N64 games have ever been ported, but it's been almost 5 years now since most Wii U VC games, and the Wii U also sold horribly in its own right. Now, we are getting new gaming solutions while these "most popular/in demand" N64 games are already sitting on high prices from "player demand". I'll do a video soon breaking down collectors vs players vs speculators and how they all all contribute to certain prices to better explain the rationale there.

[@shaun8062]

I suspect that you are correct, and even more so with respect to the switch compared to the mini consoles. I'll tell you why. For a lot of the NES and SNES collectors, they knew the mini only had a select few number of games on them, and collectors of their nostalgic generation had already started collecting earlier, which is why a lot of them saw the min as being obsolete to them personally. Those two things are different with the N64 and the timing now. There is not a limited number of games, as it's up in the air what they will release next. Also, the nostalgic generation only started really getting back into this with their kids in the recent year. So, they hit the nostalgic buyers RIGHT ON TIME!

[@Siouxpreme1979]

I'd still get an N64 mini if it came out.

[@GetTheGreg]

Haha honestly.... I probably would too😎

[@misterneckbreaker88]

that last nintendo direct this put the thought in my head to sell it all and just emulate. nintendo switch online has the classic must haves. castlevania collections both of those is a bargain compared to buying them individually. i am thinking just keeping a few very few treasures the upmost childhood nostalgia.

[@thunderm00se88]

I love the 'Worst and also the best way to play retro games' argument. Solid point there. And that comes from an someone who wants to play everything on original consoles lol. The CRT thing is a pain. They kind of hurt my eyes after a while. So I decided to not be a 'snob' about that haha, one crt okay and the rest over modern tv's.

[@GetTheGreg]

The one game I do still usually play on an original set-up is Melee with my brothers👌😎

[@thunderm00se88]

@@GetTheGregIf you had to pick one with a game, that's an excellent choice, especially with family or friends 👍🏻

[@josealvarado2309]

Solid video, I wonder if a better analogue would be seeing virtual console releases and prices during those times.

[@TheRatyzuma]

I agree, I see the NES and SNES Mini als outliers, whereas the virtual console and the NES and SNES Nintendo Online subscription games probably paint a more accurate picture of what the market value will do for the N64 games included in this new expanded Nintendo membership.

[@GetTheGreg]

For a lot of them, we would have to go all the way back to Wii VC, which is basically a different era of video game collecting entirely haha. Wii U VC first releases on the N64 games would be decent, but I don't feel the Wii U had enough overall ownership to see the same kind of effects playing out as I'm predicting. But you could absolutely be right that the NES/SNES minis are beasts of their own and I'm completely over estimating the effect of switch online. But regardless, I appreciate you guys sharing your thoughts!

[@metalagent47]

it would absolutely have nothing to do with this switch online service, and everything to do with inflation in the market en masse.

[@GetTheGreg]

Sure. Hopefully these specific games outpace any wider market downturn, then.

[@Sim8n]

No if you're gonna buy the cartridge, you're a collector. If you want to play the games, you're gonna emulate or buy the online expansion pack. Who in there right mind would want to play mario 64 then go out to buy it and a n64, you'd just emulate. And if you don't want to emulate you'd buy the online, and if you don't want the online, you'd buy the Ds verison because it's cheaper and most people already have a old ds.

[@crazycarlsadventures5983]

I mean yea those select games MAY drop some but that doesn’t mean N64 games are gonna tank over night .. whenever I go to mom and pop retro game stores I’m usually told when asked “what’s the best selling stuff right now “ that it’s N64…. This won’t affect CIB prices at all … but the loose games possibly … things come up and down it’s inevitable

[@GetTheGreg]

That's a great anecdote actually that emphasizes my point. N64 still has insane "player demand" that exists for original carts, largely due to the lack of alternatives Nintendo has provided over the years. I see this as being a serious blow to that demand.

[@crazycarlsadventures5983]

@@GetTheGreg for casual players and non collectors absolutely… but tbh so many of my non collector friends still own their n64 and play it a few times a year … it’s the best 4 multiplayer console experience imo ..

[@rjc276]

Hmmm. I get your viewpoint, however if you exclude the games that were released on SNES mini from the total average, I think you’d find the figure in the ALL SNES GAMES category went up (or broke even) in value after the first year. I think you should have also included 2020 data anyway and then compared the increase in value against other consoles that didn’t get a mini console release. Does the price charting info extend to March 2020? As that’s when the pandemic really took hold. I strongly suspect that the effects are temporary as, based on the data, we already began to see a recovery in year 2. Great video but there’s a short term vs a long term view that I feel needs more investigation.

[@GetTheGreg]

The data does extend all the way to current, but like you said, after covid took over, everything across the board boomed so a whole new set of data points need to be considered. Basically, a new, insane catalyst was introduced which throws off all existing "trends". But for sure, there's tons of more data that could be considered and compiled but there is only so deep a guy can get into it on KZbin where most people leave after 5 minutes anyway haha😅 I'll continue to track this going forward though, so if I'm wrong about this all I'll gladly eat it haha

[@rjc276]

@@GetTheGreg fair enough and it was a great video as I said, and appreciate the research.

[@GetTheGreg]

Appreciate it man! Cheers!

[@rjc276]

@@GetTheGreg all good and sorry if my first comment came across as entitled. I was more just “thinking out loud”

[@sunstruck]

this is why i love the gameboy over everything - ease of use and ability to procure the hardware.

[@GetTheGreg]

I will give you that! At least you can have a full set-up without breaking the bank!

[@zergmare7]

Oh i hope the n64 game prices crash, I can afford more of them

[@drag0n666]

The effects of the Super Nintendo Mini are not inherently good indicators that prices in cartridges are going to go down. Yes some games have gone down in price in the cartridge market for the NES/SNES. Other games do not have a large consequently drop in overall price. Earthbound prices, for example, have seen small to no effect on overall prices. This is just one example though. Historically this is not going to be the case. For example Chrono Trigger has not seen a large effect in price and at one time jumped in price for completed boxed copies and used cartridge copies. Despite the fact it's been made available on the Nintendo Wii Virtual Console, PS3 via the PSN store, a DS release, and a playstation release. I could be wrong but I think it may have gotten a PSP release as well. But again, prices in some instances have actually gone up overall. Despite Mario 64 being released on other platforms DS, Wii Virtual Console, and now Mario All-Stars for the Switch. Actual prices of Mario 64 do not indicate a huge drop in overall value used or boxed. There are other games you can look at for the same pattern, some of which appear on other consoles via their own online store (Rare games) come to mind. On the contrary, I think the expansion pack is Nintendo appeasing to an older base of gamers who were either in high school or college during the mid to late 90's for nostalgia purposes. Both platforms are either going to fail or succeed based on the core principle of 3rd party support which Nintendo has a huge lack of support. Other NES and SNES games as well as Genesis games appear already on the e-shop in some shape or form. That in turn is going to be the tipping point for the success of the expansion pack.

[@GetTheGreg]

The big reason why I emphasize this catalyst is because of how propped by "player demand" majority of N64 carts still are. Chrono and earthbound have a ton of collector demand to always help "hold" the prices. Both are even uncommon in cartridge form. I don't believe these online games are going to hurt the value of worms Armageddon, but rather the most popular games with a ton of demand to actually be played. You mentioned Mario 3d Allstars - Mario Sunshine GC was immediately crushed by the release as a much better/more convenient alternative now existed. That's a game very similar to the argument I'm making against these N64 games. Even in my own spreadsheet data I showed, you can see that Dracula X actually went up over the same timeframe. And actually, the cart only of Mario 64 has also gone down quite a bit since SM3DAS released. $35.17 in September 2020 (month of release) and down to $28.22 by December. Currently sitting at $25. Might just be outside market conditions, but is worth pointing out. I'll be checking in on this in the coming months, but this is my prediction haha. We shall see!

[@drag0n666]

@@GetTheGreg I don't think you're looking at the overall bigger picture here. In the case of the expansion pack, most games are already available via the e-shop or in physical release already for the switch. There is also that looming dynamic of 3rd party support. Which is what is going to either drive the expansion pack or going to cause it to struggle at a snails pace. 85% of the Genesis games are already out on the e-shop. Sure Bloodlines is a nice addition, but granted the day of the Nintendo Direct the CV collection was discounted to $5 which has Bloodlines bundled into it. The NES/SNES pack has languished for over a year due to lack of an expanded library. Based on completed listings on ebay, Sunshine hovers between $30 and $45. I'm assuming based on condition. So in that regard you are right. As for Dracula X are you referring to the SNES copy or the Turbo Duo copy? Again Konami is shooting themselves in the foot. The SNES version of the game is not that great, from a collectible standpoint sure it may be sought after. As for the Turbo Duo version that's going to change as LRG is localizing it into a physical copy of the translated version. No word on if the PS4/5/Switch will get copies of it as well or digital downloads of it. But like you said we're talking about games that have their own propped "player demand". I can see short term the expansion pack making a difference in overall collectible prices. In the long run I don't see it happening as more people will be unwilling to pay an extra fee for a service that is probably going to peak and then just fizzle out. Some games I don't think will make that huge of a difference and may actually see a boost. An example would be Mario Party, which insiders claim will not be ported to the expansion pack service and plan to start releasing the series at Mario Party 2. Overall I can see where collectors would be alarmed but this is something that people have talked about since the Wii started shoveling and reshoveling ports of their first party games, on other consoles, out on almost every platform. At the same time, 3rd party games might skyrocket due to a lack of a digital platform. Games like Goldeneye and Perfect Dark, etc. And let's be honest, the N64 failed to bring in good 3rd party support. Also, from my understanding Smash Bros. will not be making it to the expansion pack either. I have no idea why, but according to the release calendar there is no release date slated for it.

[@JMMREVIEW]

Hey Greg great video, do you think it will mostly be loose carts that take the hit or will boxed games come down too?

[@RickofEarthTV]

He answers this in the first minute of the video Lmfaooo.

[@JMMREVIEW]

@@RickofEarthTV yeah but I was hoping for a little more detail.

[@RickofEarthTV]

@@JMMREVIEW they are different markets. Someone who wants a loose cartridge might typically want it to actually play. As to where CIB collectors are usually just that, after the aesthetic of the game. You can purchase Mario kart 64 from the Nintendo store but you’ll never be able to buy the box from the Nintendo store. So I feel like you’ll always see a premium for the CIB games, even the ones that make it on the Nintendo switch.

[@GetTheGreg]

Agreed with JMM here. CIB will of course be hit a little bit since the cartridge is inherently a single piece of the CIB (if the cart price drops average $15, maybe the CIB see an $8 average drop). But yea, it's generally a different mindset/buyer altogether when we include the box and manual. It appeals much more to shelf collectors then!

[@JMMREVIEW]

@@GetTheGreg thanks for the reply, I welcome some sort of dip with N64. One of your earlier videos resonated with me where you said the value you attribute to games depends on the price you bought them, I was buying N64 games on ebay in 2008, when I tried to buy them again in around 2016 I convinced myself they were too expensive. The truth is the market just moved on without me and I was stuck with 2008 prices in my mind.

[@PokePOPJPX]

I think in about 10+ years given time, all consoles will move to digital and that's when physical, sealed copies of games no longer become something you open to play, but definitely more a collector's market.

[@GetTheGreg]

The year is 2030, physical games don't include disks/carts and we all keep the cases sealed anyway haha😎

[@PokePOPJPX]

@@GetTheGreg Lol I see it happening!

[@robbyiss]

if they add ogre battle 64 I wont need to buy that $150 copy I've been eyeing! (..but will probably buy if price goes down lol).

[@GetTheGreg]

Haha not sure we will get the more niche titles like that, but fingers crossed!🤞

[@Umbreon_Eevee]

I'm going to be so happy when this happens but I know conker is not going to be on their, I might be able to afford paper mario

[@Mitjitsu]

That's why when you're investing in CIB retro games. You should generally go for stuff that isn't likely to be rereleased for whatever reason. Whether it lost source code, licensing, or any other issues that may make it inappropriate to rerelease.

[@GetTheGreg]

It's definitely something to consider if you're purchasing with that mindset!

[@darkalplanaria2374]

It's not a crash because "market data" isn't just the last 18 months of sales. The low prices that folks can actually get for these games has not changed all that much. 2 years of outliers does not trump 20 years of reliable data.

[@GetTheGreg]

I did a video on "price memory" awhile ago that I think applies here. You and me might call this market a bubble. Every 2020 collector calls it "normal". If prices recede 20%+ on the average, it's a crash for these people, even if you don't consider it one yourself. (And by broader economic sense, it's a crash regardless. 20 years of past data doesn't change the actual price action of today)

[@manicdrive85]

If they added some Diddy Kong racing golden eye Tetrisphere I might get it

[@Retronize84]

I can see how the release of N64 games on the Switch can effect standard cart prices but the sealed/graded market shouldn't change much, right?

[@GetTheGreg]

Right. Sealed/graded is driven by very different factors than the cartridge market. Cartridges could go up/down/sideways without affecting sealed at all (in most cases).

[@camrongraziano1254]

My counter argument would be: The Wii/WiiU Virtual Consoles. The WiiU VC is still accessable and has 21 N64 games. I had hoped back then it would drop the price of SNES games. But what it does it exposes people who never had the access to those games to play them, enjoy them and say "Hey I want a real copy really badly." and since they now have an attachment to that game they will buy it then or save up for it. They can even keep enjoying that game on Switch till they get a "real" copy. Or even after they get a "real" copy. That all said, I do think you will see people sell their N64s for space reasons, or money reasons. I just don't think prices will drop 20-25%. I think there will be enough buying of N64 games to offset the amount of people selling. Since there is less N64 items overall than NES and SNES.

[@GetTheGreg]

And I did consider the Wii U VC, as it is a good point, I just wish the Wii U had sold better overall to place more weight on how widespread it may have been. As well as it being over Over 5 years ago now for most of the games that did see a release on it. Come forward to 2021, I'm not sure a lot of people have a Wii U sitting around to play them on (at least not compared to how common it is to own a Switch). But yes, it's absolutely worth pointing out that Wii U VC is a thing! I'm very excited to track how this prediction goes, regardless of if I'm right or wrong in the end haha👍

[@camrongraziano1254]

@@GetTheGreg but many people did have a Wii and I don't remember Earthbound or Neo Geo games tanking or retracing cuz they were accessible to the casual. I also really loved the WiiU and wish it had done better so we might have seen more brought to the VC in the way of N64, GameCube, Wii and even DS. I am always interested in seeing the secondary gaming market go up and down. I've been "watching" it if you will since about 2004 on eBay back in high school. And these predictions are always fun to make. 😁

[@GetTheGreg]

@Camron Graziano I do distinctly remember Earthbound being hit pretty hard by its first VC release. Talking in CAD prices here, it went from around $200 down to $130ish before eventually recovering. The Wii is so long ago now, though, that that's basically an entirely different era of collecting haha. Either way, I appreciate you sharing your thoughts! Edit: that earthbound VC release might be on the WII U actually, not Wii. I think I'm mixing up my timelines.

[@gaabagool]

I always wondered why carts cost as much as they did when you can basically emulate any n64 game you want for free

[@MegaMunizaga]

ppl dont want to deal with emulation etc

[@vantheman1501]

Lazy and ignorant people

[@GetTheGreg]

Emulation just is not a thing for tons of people haha. Even many gamers... They just don't do it! Not sure if it's lack of knowledge, lazy (as vantheman said), etc.🤷‍♂️

[@Traumerei112]

Maybe its called respecting nostalgia and intellectual property? Lol slow down on the “lazy and ignorant” bro. When did pirating becoming a positive thing?

[@gaabagool]

@@Traumerei112 Nintendo’s lack of support for their old games and consoles justifies emulators imo. It’s good to see them finally give people a legal and easy option to play n64 games

[@cflores883]

I’m pretty bummed now that we probably won’t get a n64 Mini to add to the collection. Perhaps the release of these digital games will get more people interested in the 64 platform and effect the prices of physical that aren’t being offered?

[@clrodrick]

Great vid I have little doubt you will be right on this. Loose carts always suffer when easier solution is out there to play. I wonder if Nintendo will at some point offer GameCube games on the online service? GameCube market been bid up to extreme lengths as well. I'd like to expand my library (yes I'm a dork that still embraces the pure retro experience for console gaming) but not a buyer at current price levels.

[@GetTheGreg]

GameCube CIB prices terrify me for this reason. As soon as a more convenient and/or cheaper method comes along, they will cut in half overnight haha. (Bit of an exaggeration... Or is it 👀) But who knows when/if that will ever happen, so I happily have my GameCube collection and slowly keep adding to it haha.

[@THE.CHIEF616]

I think prices will stay the same. We will see. These have been easy to play on pc for a long time now.

[@owenmiller8373]

Only counterargument I have to your video is the fact that the SNES mini and NES mini are physical objects, not a virtual way to play like N64 online. In addition to that, it’s a subscription model not a 1 time purchase. I fully agree that prices will be impacted, but I don’t think it will be as dramatic as you expect, with the exception of the best selling titles. If 1 game takes the biggest hit I think it will be Mariokart 64 just because of the online aspect. Anyways, great video!

[@Radiant_Emerald]

I literally saw Star Fox 64 for 20 bucks yesterday.

[@Poke_N_Fun]

So it looks like they all just dropped and that the Nintendo mini had nothing to do with it

[@GetTheGreg]

Twice the average % drop of games *not* on the SNES mini does seem to imply a correlation. As well as only a 5% drop on the entire index on the same timeframe. Yes, there was over-arching downwards pressure on the market, but seems to be much more concentrated to these specific titles based on the data examined here!

[@screaminpotato]

I think the Mario and DK titles not on the mini simply dropped in value because people had their thirst satisfied with the Mario and DK titles that were on the mini.

[@GetTheGreg]

I like that train of thought as well!

[@kwesmo17]

From my point of view, and my little experience collecting mostly games to play, I really believe the price of loose games will drop significantly. It was dumb to have to pay up to 70€ here in Spain for any good N64 title regardless of their state. I don't know how the market goes where you live, but here in Spain the prices of CIB and Loose games are practically the same for most N64 games. I've bought a CIB Pokemon Snap for 5 euros and had to spend 60 for a loose Smash Bros just to play it. The fact that the WiiU wasn't huge here made the legal owning of digital copies pretty scarce. The most recent hardware you had to play Mario 64 on was the Wii, which now is considered "retro" (that makes me feel old) I trully believe that loose games should be really cheap, because no one really collects them for "safe-keeping" If you buy a loose game on its own, not a part of a bundle or collection, you are usually buying it to play it. Collectors make the prices of games worth collecting (CIB/Sealed) creep up, which makes loose games pick up the price a little bit due to the fact that people buy them to play them. i have bought CIB and even sealed games just to open them and play them. I don't regret it, for me, it's as pretty to see Twilight Princess on the GC next to my other games as it is on the Wii, so of course I want it open and playable. Everyone has a way to collect, I enjoy your channel because your point of view is so much different than mine that it's really interesting. I prefer to "collect" my games in a playable state, and well, most of the time, it's not collecting, it's just that I don't like to sell my games, so they are there, forming my collection haha.

[@GetTheGreg]

Great post! When I'm considering prices and what I feel "comfortable" paying (especially if it's purely for collecting purposes), I always try to avoid buying games that have huge "player demand". I've always found that player demand is extremely fickle and can change as soon as a cheaper and/or more convenient way to play the games come out. Not to say collector demand can't shift as well, but I personally have better odds trying to predict it haha.

[@kwesmo17]

@@GetTheGreg for what I've seen, the prices widely vary in Europe, so maybe some obscure or hard to get games for american markets are relatively common in Europe. So if it's for ease of access to the game itself, and not for the value of the product, searching other markets for the game just to play it usually yields cheaper prices. In your type of collecting I don't know if you care about games being PAL, NTSC or even for the difference between for example, Spanish Mario Sunshine and German Mario Sunshine

[@Bee_Mavrick]

The games that don't make Nintendos new service might not see a difference. The online is the real killer. But that don't mean I need to sell my n64 collection.

[@sayian1_998]

I agree 100% and I hope this will drop genesis games as well, there are amazing titles. I also see now Zelda n64 games going down. Party time

[@PhantasyStarved]

Love your channel but I think you're overthinking this one. There's zero chance that this crashes the CIB market, especially N64. Collectors are very particular and want the actual game complete in great condition, of which supply for games with cardboard boxes like the N64 is scarce. It is not a casual hobby at all anymore, it's quite time consuming and expensive. These games have been free to download via emulators and rom carts for years and years, why would Nintendo's subscription model of leasing these games make any more headway? You're talking about two completely different types of consumers. Thanks again for the interesting content.

[@deedeemerry1295]

he didnt say it would crash CIB. Mainly, just certain loose cartridges. Not sure how u missed that, he stated that in the very beginning

[@clrodrick]

@@deedeemerry1295 Many people don't even bother to watch video they just look at title and immediately comment. Sad but true

[@GetTheGreg]

Yea, CIB will largely be fine. The crux of my whole argument is against the most popular N64 cartridges - specifically the ones immediately coming to Online Expansions Pack.

[@GoobNoob]

All the loose prices for these games will go down, and the CIB and Sealed products are going to skyrocket in price once this is released.

[@GetTheGreg]

Not sure if we will see any meaningful price action on the CIBs or sealed, but I'll be keeping an eye on it for sure hah!

[@jeff15]

Nah, physical is physical. Whoever is into physical, pricess will maintain steady.

[@GetTheGreg]

I do hope you are right! I have a ton of N64 games myself haha

[@jeff15]

@@GetTheGreg I have nes mini, snes mini and guess what pricess for the nes and snes physical cartridges are in sane. Nes and snes also available for the switch. Any change ?. Nice video though 👌.

[@GetTheGreg]

@@jeff15 it's a timeframe thing, though. I laid out what happened to those prices 1 and 2 years after the SNES/NES mini consoles. Had covid not happened, none of the prices we see today would have happened either. Insane catalyst brought us to this point - I see the N64 online as being a big catalyst to cause downward pressure now. But we shall see how it all plays out! I'll do an update video on this prediction of course👌

[@TheNickPledge]

Nice work man, makes alot of sense! Keep up the good work.

[@deckofcards87]

Switch is not going to be a replacement. There's going to be a lot of quality titles that won't make it to nintendo online, plus ones that cannot be emulated to full accuracy. Original hardware is going to remain the ideal until N64 emulation finally hits it's peak performance. Your video is misleading.

[@Bee_Mavrick]

Disney games definitely won't make it

[@PokeRetroFan]

I agree 100 percent.

[@medievalgenius2822]

When the Wii offered Turbo Grafx 16 games digitally, the market for those physical games exploded....

[@game_master_rukia]

prices will go down when people stop collecting

[@kyral4978]

So... this is only bad for the speculators? Classic games will be more accessible to actual players? Maybe all the money going to Nintendo isn't ideal, but at least it is going to an actual developer instead of some guy who bought low. This "crash" seems like the market responding to bad actors (Wata and Heritage) mucking around with the prices. This is only bad for you if you have spent lots of money on classic games... (looks at background) ...oh

[@GetTheGreg]

🥳

[@ZyferWarriorPrime]

No it won't. It didn't change the NES games, they've gone up since then not gone down. The mini systems actually drove prices upwards. Nor will most the games be available on it. Pricecharting is abstractly wrong and doesn't verify accuracy nor does it factor in actual quality. Maybe that "average" isn't cartridges in a condition you would want to own. This data doesn't reflect what the real world price was. People who rely on Pricecharting for data are the sellers I want to see. They don't know the value of the items they have.

[@GetTheGreg]

I actually do agree with you about Pricecharting being pretty bad overall, but not when it comes to cartridge only copies of the most popular games. There's enough frequency of sales to have accuracy in the average.

[@ZyferWarriorPrime]

@@GetTheGreg The problem is that cartridge only can be pristine or ones that have broken shells or no labels, etc. It skews the averages and brings the belief of value where there is little to none. One of the biggest issues with pricecharting is items often get miscategorized or items are listed too low because people don't know what they have. Regardless, what drives prices up is market interest and market availability. No more original supply is being made and unless people are willing to let go of their collections, availability continues to slump. Then it becomes where good condition items are coming hard to find. The other mechanism is that some games will never make it on Switch and some games being available won't make all N64 games plummet. It may very well drive demand and push prices upwards. The whole pandemic was a driving force for rising prices, but ultimately it was the stimulus money people had burning in their pockets. While many may opt for the convenience on Switch, there are more than enough who want to have and not enough supply available. Meanwhile people still pay over $1000 for a boxed game of Legend of Zelda, or even $40 for a cartridge.

[@GetTheGreg]

Yup, but the actual variance in a cartridge price of Mario Kart 64 is far smaller than that of a CIB or sealed, even taking condition into account. And of course, supply and demand dictates everything. We know supply is finite, but demand is not consistent. I predict switch online to lower demand to a point it affects prices, even if supply stays constant. And do keep in mind, I'm only predicting this for the games put on Switch online, and other, most popular/high demand games that may make their way there in the future. This isn't going to touch Super Bowling or Worms. The comments of LoZ NES fall into collector demand, which is outside of my actual argument. We will lose "players", not collectors, which will contribute to these games falling unless more collectors enter to counter this loss of demand.

[@ZyferWarriorPrime]

@@GetTheGreg I mean to be fair, it should be going down due to the temporary inflation the stimulus seemed to have had on the market. That much I expect, but it should be negligible. The market at this point is mostly collectors. Most others moved onto emulation already. The cartridge price for that has stayed consistent, somewhere between $20-$40 which could be argued a big difference. I'd be surprised to see a big drop. Though I would argue Mario Kart Double Dash was the superior game, I figure the biggest draw would be Zelda, even though they were released several times already. I just don't see there is going to be a noticeable difference. Time will tell though. The price point of the expansion will matter too. Might deter many who already pay for enough subscriptions.

[@GetTheGreg]

For sure. If there is no sharp downturn, then I'll just chalk it up to natural downwards pressure from coming off the "covid high" rather than Switch Online. I will for sure do a follow up on this once more time passes and track the data! If I'm wrong, hey, I'll be the first to admit it haha👌

[@thefastesthedgehog6795]

A lot of people still prefer original hardware

[@kludd40]

Wishful thinking for us N64 collectors. If anything the market has dodged a bullet with this confirmation of no N64 classic. We're not going to see people selling their collections en masse as happened with NES and SNES just because the virtual console is back from its 2 year hiatus in a more limited form.

[@miranda1068]

Hair is on point 👀

[@richardcastro-parker3704]

I like the idea of the N64 games on switch but you have to keep paying year on year to get access. Original hardware and carts is a one time purchase as long as they keep working. I'll always buy cartridges and original discs.

[@digitalzushi]

I doubt it'd be much more, but Nintendo Online itself is only $0.055 a day for a single user.

[@Bubbytoed]

why you look scared in the thumbnail though

[@GetTheGreg]

Scared dude is scared

[@deanmsc2002]

I don’t collect games, I veeeery rarely play games, and yet, since I found your channel (via Karl Jobst), I can’t stop watching?! Great content, Greg, even for non gamers such as myself!

[@GetTheGreg]

Appreciate the kind words!🤝

[@jaimersholden8686]

Verry good video.

[@GetTheGreg]

Thanks man!

[@nighticeeee]

Gotta invest in games that Nintendo will never add, just bought 50 copies of Bug's Life 64, to the moon boys

[@GetTheGreg]

Haha you are truly a visionary!

[@atomiswave1971]

Give me a proper n64 controller any day. Don't care how good the visuals are.

[@GetTheGreg]

I really want to hold this new one they are releasing for $50

[@atomiswave1971]

@@GetTheGreg thanks for the heads up. Will get 1 controller. I can't see anyone buying 4 of them for multi player though. It's nice to have the option though. Personally not to keen on losing value on my n64 CIBs. I am not too sure of your prediction, n64 has fans and if the price goes down I will personally be picking more up as I am sure others will.

[@GetTheGreg]

I have near complete N64 collection myself haha. If prices do indeed come down, I'll be finally grabbing "upgrades" at decent prices😎 I will check in on this on time goes by though. Whether I'm right or wrong, I'll make an update video in 6 months or so🤝

[@atomiswave1971]

@@GetTheGreg do you ever sleep? You look good for someone who never sleeps. This is what market manipulation is doing to you.

[@GetTheGreg]

@@atomiswave1971 weird, sporadic hours haha. Working on fixing that😅

[@chlamygamine2190]

Don't have a switch but I think its cool for the 64 games on it. I found the idea of a n64 classic as humorous because the controller will be gigantic in comparison to mini console. I still hope it sees release but I'm doubtful and even if it does I probably will miss it because it sold out like I missed out on the nes mini. Side note even tho I missed out on nes mini I bought a nes and nearly all the games on it that I would play and titles not on it. What concerns me with what you said about sega on the switch I want to believe a dreamcast mini classic being released because I have no experience with that and the price point for physical dreamcast games isn't something im going to go out and buy

[@GetTheGreg]

I would also love to see a Dreamcast mini! Locally, we basically never had DC games for sale which meant I would have had to ship every game in order to collect... Which is a nope from me. I'd be broke immediately since I'm in Canada haha. Not sure it will ever happen though. As we get into the "less loved" consoles, the overall demand for them also drops significantly. I am going to keep my fingers crossed, though!

[@snipezpro9554]

They aint gonna be priceless or less price lol you need monthly fee to get them digital only once to own on cartridge and n64 i have sealed games what i payd 25$ for like as goldeneye and duke nukem zero hour and mario 64

[@CapeTownLoL]

Or it could bring more awareness to those N64 games and get drive up the desire to own the physical versions 🤷‍♂️ (glass half full 🤣)

[@KultClassic]

They better release the original OoT. Not the remake.

[@GetTheGreg]

Could you imagine....☠️

[@MilkWasABadChoice17]

I like your analysis, but I think you needed another point of correlation. A lot of those SNES games that went down was ALSO due to to them being on the Nintendo Switch Online Service concurrently. The DKC games that took the big hit are games that are on the service. A lot of the games that are and will be on this service for NES, SNES, & N64 I already have a majority of them from my childhood or I picked them up for near nothing in the years since, so if prices go down it means nothing for me.

[@GetTheGreg]

Ahhh good point! Thanks for bringing that up! I also already own my N64 collection haha. I'm excited to hopefully be able to buy some "upgrades" in the future, though😎

[@joshuam5678]

its going to stay the same because of emulation

[@majordanger8348]

It’s a win win for me good i hope the Prices drop 😌

[@leeartlee915]

Shouldn’t these prices already be low due to how many Wii’s are out there? If the Wii didn’t cut the market, why would the Switch? (and I honestly don’t know. Maybe Greg will have the answers)

[@Widgerber]

I feel like the Wii kind of pre-dated the retro boom. Plus most will think harder about a single virtual console purchase than a monthly subscription.

[@leeartlee915]

@@Widgerber Hmm, that could be the case. The major Retro boom happened after that I suppose. But I’d argue people actually would rather “own” these games (in digital form) rather than subscription. The reason Nintendo isn’t doing sales is because they know that this Switch ecosystem is gonna be around for awhile and you can only skin a sheep once.

[@SkitBitProduction]

@@leeartlee915 and Wii market been close for years and now their online with friends

[@GetTheGreg]

Yea, the Wii was a bit outside of the whole retro boom. 2016ish was when things were really starting to peak on common cartridges, so the NES/SNES minis were primed to take demand. The Switch online N64 games will be a catalyst that hits during another peak demand wave. (well, not *peak* demand, but increased prices and awareness across the board thanks to stay at home culture). But of course, we'll see what happens. I'll absolutely be making update videos to this to see how it all plays out and (potentially) eat my words haha

[@michaelblatherwick5324]

Spot on with amazing research.

[@nickbills2215]

I agree it will have an impact. But bro..... have you hared of emulation?

[@clrodrick]

He covered that in video. He said lots of people out there don't got technical chops or time to deal with learning curve to deal with emulation. They just respond to quick & easy/simple solution to play classics which Nintendo is rolling out either with mini system or with online service.

[@clownworld1017]

No, not really

[@subjectnivleis7572]

Good can't wait for the retro market to crash so everyone can. Buy what they want at decent prices used games should never be above new price

[@supyo1]

Problem is it’s like 1/100 of the library. Still gotta get that old hunk of a n64 out and play it for the rest of the 280 games…

[@GetTheGreg]

Everyone knows people only play like 30 N64 games anyway haha!

[@Johnnydubois]

Maybe maybe not. PS1 game prices are still high even though you can buy all the most expensive titles on PSN. Loose cartridges maybe but CIB will still go up in value.

[@madk51385]

Haven't everdrives existed for years? Authentic cartridges are for a certain type of gamer/collector and I'm not quite sure how much overlap is really there with people who would play n64 on switch with limited titles and a subscription.

[@JoNev1]

I gotta admit..I bought the NES and SNES mini because they were so dang cute and had some MAJOR bangers on them and the ease of use to hookup to a modern TV was great too. Nintendo may still release a N64 mini for the esthetics alone. Time will tell. (Fingers crossed 🤞) Great video Greg..I always enjoy your respectfulness and positivity. 👍💪😎💯🕹

[@Nicomanism]

Bet

[@justinmaertens31]

Can't wait to pay for an expansion on top of my expansion pass in one year's time when they add another console Kappa

[@GetTheGreg]

The expansion pack expansion pass is going to be awesome!

[@Jackie_Fhan]

Disagree, prices will go up. They are down now.

[@leeartlee915]

When did Nintendo online add snes games? That probably is hitting the market way more than the snes mini.

[@GetTheGreg]

I would need to check that specifically, but there could absolutely be correlation there as well!

[@protapirus]

Good.

[@DijaVlogsGames]

I personally couldn’t care less for the Nintendo Online emulators (especially when I need to pay extra), but I am happy that Nintendo fans will finally enjoy some of the lower prices us Sega guys have been loving all along. Sega kept their Genesis games in circulation since the console released. There was always some kind of Genesis collection for those who want to play the games.

[@GetTheGreg]

Yes! I wish I would have mentioned that about Sega, but I was too heavily focused on the N64 games as that's the real lean of my prediction

[@zagrebzebra]

N64... I wish NES/SNES could become more affordable someday.

[@digitalzushi]

People saying Greg is wrong are forgetting that he qualified the buyers as "casual collectors", meaning people who are collecting to flip and not serious collectors. I believe there is a lot of validity to this argument. It probably won't tank sealed games, and CIB games may get hit less, but loose games are going to tank.

[@Imaminimonstertruck]

BS Nintendo online has not lowered the prices of NES and SNES games. N64 will be no different. Don't expect $1 N64 games anytime soon.

[@GetTheGreg]

What about a $25 Mario Kart 64?

[@bmaga123]

This is fantastic data thanks for putting in the work so we don't have to :-)

[@GetTheGreg]

Haha hopefully even if people disagree, they find the data interesting!

[@radbradmusicartist]

Good